【聊了什么】

我们在这期节目中一起复盘了这半个月美国政治的几条主线。伊朗战争方向，特朗普的"脱身"与伊朗的"既成事实"之间反复拉锯——霍尔木兹海峡开放又关闭、封锁被封锁、以黎停火让以色列错愕、美军登船搜查油轮，我们试图分析接下来的走向。

国内方面，中期选举的布局已经开始，消费者信心指数创75年新低，化肥和牛肉价格成为特朗普亲自下场关心的问题。我们还聊了国会两党"一换一"式的丑闻清洗（Swalwell退选加州州长、Tony Gonzales辞职），以及特朗普与教皇之间的冲突，以及纽约时报最新披露的最高法院shadow docket内部备忘录。

本期节目录制于美国时间2026年4月18日上午。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。

合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

【时间轴】

00:46 伊朗局势15天大反转：从停火重启到一触即发

07:16 特朗普想不想打？美方开价比奥巴马核协议还低

10:32 伊朗内部撕裂：议长圆话、强硬派反弹、抵抗轴心动摇

16:47 特朗普绕开以色列宣布黎以停火

19:47 霍尔木兹既成事实：拖下去对美国越不利

21:47 Susie Wiles启动中期选举备战

26:47 共和党的隐忧：选民失望但不转投、信心指数创75年新低

29:53 MAGA内部清算：卡尔森挨打、Joe Rogan被优待

34:40 TPUSA成"反指"：地方选举的意外反噬

42:15 Swalwell丑闻与两党"交换辞职"的潜规则

55:45 匈牙利选举

58:54 特朗普大战教皇

1:07:28 阿利托、托马斯会退吗？

1:12:54 纽时爆料：Shadow Docket十年前如何诞生

1:18:18 伊朗队还能来世界杯吗？新泽西交通坐地起价

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

【 What We Talked About】

In this episode, we walk through the main threads of U.S. politics over the past two weeks. On Iran, Trump's push to extract himself and Tehran's push to establish facts on the ground keep pulling against each other — the Strait of Hormuz opens and closes, a blockade gets counter-blockaded, an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire catches Israel off guard, and U.S. forces move toward boarding and searching tankers. We try to make sense of where this is heading.

On the domestic front, the midterm positioning has begun. Consumer confidence has hit a 75-year low, and fertilizer and beef prices have become issues Trump is weighing in on personally. We also get into the tit-for-tat scandal purge playing out in Congress (Swalwell dropping his California gubernatorial bid, Tony Gonzales resigning), Trump's clash with the Pope, and the New York Times' newly surfaced internal memos on the Supreme Court's shadow docket.

This episode was recorded on the morning of April 18, 2026, U.S. time.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

【Timeline】

00:46 Iran in 15 Days: From Ceasefire Restart to the Brink

07:16 Does Trump Actually Want War? U.S. Offering Less Than Obama's Deal

10:32 Cracks Inside Iran: The Speaker's Spin, Hardliner Backlash, and a Shaken Axis of Resistance

16:47 Trump Announces Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire — Without Telling Israel

19:47 Hormuz as Fait Accompli: Every Day That Passes Hurts the U.S.

21:47 Susie Wiles Kicks Off Midterm Prep

26:47 The GOP's Quiet Problem: Disillusioned Voters Who Won't Switch Sides, Confidence at a 75-Year Low

29:53 MAGA Infighting: Carlson Gets Hit, Rogan Gets a Pass

34:40 TPUSA as Reverse Indicator: The Local Election That Backfired

42:15 The Swalwell Scandal and Washington's Unwritten "Trade-a-Resignation" Rule

55:45 Hungary's Election

58:54 Trump vs. the Pope

1:07:28 Will Alito or Thomas Retire?

1:12:54 NYT Scoop: How the Shadow Docket Was Born a Decade Ago

1:18:18 Can Iran's Team Still Play the World Cup? New Jersey's Transit Price Gouge

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

082 | 薛定谔的霍尔木兹、国会大扫除、特朗普 vs 教皇 Hormuz Limbo