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- [00:00]
Avi
I'm slowly becoming a communist. This is, this is like the most erratic. I mean like five years ago I was a fascist. I mean five years ago I held extremely conservative opinions. I mean the way that the market and the way that wealthy people are acting today, like they have a God given right to just continue to be more wealthy at the expense of the middle class. I really deeply respect Jeff Bezos and I deeply respect Elon Musk and I deeply respect Larry Ellison and I deeply respect everyone that's building a company. What I don't respect are the people that now have so much capital in the private markets that they're hoarding all of the wealth generated by the high functioning, high production people in our society. That's not okay. You can't do that. That you have to build for the, for the country. You have to build for the community. That's what makes a civil society strong. When you look back at what the rob, what the robber. They called them robber barons. They.
- [00:54]
Jonah
Yeah. They built universities.
- [00:55]
Avi
Built universities, they built libraries, they built public works, they built parks. They put their names on everything and they built for society. They made the world a better place for your average person. And we need to do that again. That's actually very important. What's up guys? This is, this is my first solo stream. We don't have, we don't have Jonah here today. We're going to be running these Friday into the weekend streams for the foreseeable future as part of our bringing new content to you as a thousand x podcast. We'll wait a little bit for, for people to get on but man what a, what an exciting day. The biggest IPO that's ever happened coming out at 1.77 trillion. Thing goes from 135 to 177 a share in 35 seconds. It's actually still trading about there. It's holding the highs of the day which actually very impressive. It looks like not a lot of supply has come online and market is ripping. Market's doing very well. A lot of the things that we were nervous about have been shoved to the side by the fact that these companies just continue to print money. There is a deal that Google struck with intel that they're going to be buying TPUs. So Google has this specific processing unit called the TPU that they used to only buy from TSMC which is the production facility in Taiwan and now they struck a deal with intel to go buy 3 million units from intel by 2028 which is actually Matt, like pretty, pretty amazing because intel has been working very hard to make sure that their chips are competitive and they basically haven't been for the last, for basically the entirety of Intel's existence. And now they're actually making competitive chips. And now we have, we've got the SpaceX IPO blowing up, we've got intel running, we've got SanDisk at highs. And it looks like animal spirits are, are back in the market. And that's, that's a very, very, very good sign. I, I do love coming from the world of crypto guys, because it really teaches you to just focus on what matters. So many people are getting sidetracked by the fact that SpaceX is trading at 94x revenues. Doesn't matter. Actually, it doesn't matter at all. And the reason that it doesn't matter is because this is the new age of finance. You could trade at 300x earnings. If you are a company that is building in a megatrend, you're safe until you prove to the market that you can't deliver on what you promised. But until then, you're safe. And this is true with Nvidia as well. People don't know this, but if you actually go look at the chart of Nvidia and you go back to 2023, when Nvidia was trading at $47, its price to sales ratio was about 45. That's massive. It's a massive price to sales ratio. SpaceX is 94. But guess what happened every year since then? Every month since then, that price to sales ratio came down because they were building in a megatrend and that meant that demand for chips went through the roof. I think we might see a very similar thing happen here with SpaceX. But not only do we have the Megatrend in terms of supply supporting this ratio, we also have the fact that it is an Elon company and we all know what Elon does to these multiples. I mean, you look at Tesla, arguably Tesla is actually a much weaker. In a much weaker mega trend. I mean, you know, you can say whatever you want. I just killed that bug on live on stream. Wow, I'm so good. Actually, hold on, I'm getting, I'm getting word. It actually looks like we might. I guess it's not my live stream as Jonas. Jonah's actually here. Look at this. Jonah. Jonah didn't, couldn't. He couldn't let me have the spotlight just for what? Just one day, Jonah. Just, you know, I had, I had, I had one day where I could just talk and say whatever the hell I wanted to to the camera and now you're here.
- [05:38]
Jonah
I stream bombed you. This is called stream bombing. That was that in the industry.
- [05:44]
Avi
Surprise guest. But it's the same guests that we always have. I mean, good to see you, Jonah. You're looking good.
- [05:49]
Jonah
Good to see you too. Sorry to disappoint. Yeah, I mean I have the same studio link as you, so I saw you streaming and just thought I'd. I'd stop by. Hang.
- [05:59]
Avi
Did you, did you hear what I was saying about SpaceX? I mean what's. Have you been watching the market today? What's. What's your take?
- [06:06]
Jonah
Yeah, yeah. So I think it's. Well, first of all, Hyper Liquid arbitragers seem to have done a good job aligning the pre IPO price with the actual IPO price. Shout out to hyperliquid. What an awesome vehicle for trading things before they actually need to trade in the public markets. So yeah, I think Hyper liquid. My first takeaway is wow, Hyper liquid's good. Like this is the liquidity venue. You know, to your point, on our last podcast, Avi, the social contract has been a bit broken by private markets. Basically anybody without a million dollars in accredited investor status couldn't.
- [06:43]
Avi
Specifically, specifically by Zionists is what I'm hearing. Yeah, I got a great comment that the social contract has been broken by
- [06:51]
Jonah
the Zionists, by the Jews, basically. First takeaway is wow. Hyperliquid is going to democratize access to a lot of what was previously inaccessible stuff. Second takeaway, Elon is the best in the world at achieving the lowest cost of capital. This thing is. No other entrepreneur could pull this off. This is he. It's trading at $2 trillion because he said it was worth $2 trillion and people just sort of bought it there. I've never seen an organized effort to pump a stock like this on vibes based valuations in public markets. It's crazy. Final takeaway. Here, let me share my screen.
- [07:34]
Avi
Please do.
- [07:35]
Jonah
I've got, I've got an image for you. Here we go. Okay, the FT published this. How much will managers need to buy if they don't want to short Elon? This is basically a list of indices that need to buy SpaceX. You can see all the different ones. MSCI, NASDAQ, Russell, FTSE, Russia.
- [07:59]
Avi
Shorting Elon is genuinely career risk.
- [08:03]
Jonah
That's right.
- [08:04]
Avi
And so you can't, you really can't.
- [08:07]
Jonah
Day five you've got eight yards of inflows. Day ten you've got a yard. And then day 15 you've got another five yards. And basically what this says to me is like this is a low float, high FDV meme coin with huge inflows rather than outflows coming. Do not short this thing.
- [08:28]
Avi
I have no idea what it's. You can't. And I mean there, if there's some things that you have to learn from crypto, it's that low float can take you a very long way. I mean, there are companies, I don't want to say companies, they're scam protocols that went to 50 billion valuation solely because there was low float and there was retail mania. And people, the market is more retail than ever. And you know what retail does, they often don't look at market cap, they just look at price. I mean, SpaceX probably should have listed it like a dollar. It'd actually probably be $3 by now instead of, you know, which would be the equivalent of 300 if they did it right. But I do want to point out one thing is that we are in the age of megatrends and SpaceX actually can grow into its valuation. It's just a matter of time. But people are willing because of what happened with AI. I mean, I don't know if you remember this, back in 2015, 2016, people were in WallStreetBets was in love with AMD. They're like, the chips are the future. Chips are the future. Chips are the future. I mean, sometimes it just does take a really long time for the future to arrive. People have been excited about the expansion of semiconductors being embedded into every facet of our life for a very long time, starting with ChatGPT in 2023. That took a whole life on for itself and. But it still took three years. I mean, and we're saying, you know, SanDisk is up 80x in the last 18 months, right? You could have bought it right after ChatGPT and you still have to wait a decent amount of time for it to really start to reprice. And I think people are just more lenient with the idea that these companies can end up generating significant amounts of revenue. I mean, SpaceX itself is probably going to be the only company in the world that can mine asteroids in the next 20 years. And who knows what's going to happen once we start mining asteroids. I mean, how much, how many of our materials are going to come from space 30 years from now? And is SpaceX going to be the largest company in the world because they're the only people that actually can extract it? Because they're the Only people that spent the time to build the technology out, you know, and they're not just a space company as well. I mean, they have Starlink. Starlink could quite literally take on Verizon, AT&T Comcast because it is better. And additionally, we're in a much more dangerous world today than we ever have been in the past. And SpaceX, as you see with the Ukraine war, can provide massive strategic advantages in warfare. And this is just, you know, ne, this is just next level. And so basically my, my advice to you as an investor and as a trader is don't short assets that have the potential to conquer the world because people generally, the market is almost always more optimistic than it is pessimistic. Bears die. Bears consistently die because people believe in the American dream. They believe in the American stock market. And they're going to continue to buy these assets whether they work or not, until they prove to you that they're not going to work until SpaceX proves you for Unless, you know, God forbid, knock on wood, a rocket blows up or Starlink fails or they just can't actually deliver, I think it's going to do well and maybe it'll sell off 50% and then it'll go up 5x in the meantime because space is going to be an industry that will be huge. It's just a matter of time.
- [11:57]
Jonah
Yeah, I mean, I would neither buy nor sell at this price. So actually a guy in my network who bought a lot of XAI stock back in the 2021, 22 fundraise, and then XAI got acquired by SpaceX, so it converted into SpaceX Private Equity and now he's getting his liquidity event. He wanted to hedge his bets and he basically created an SPV that effectively says, all right, I'm going to sell to you, Jonah, at the IPO price at whatever it was, $135 a share. And I thought that was a really good idea because for, you know, as we just showed in the previous image, there's a lot of inflows right now, but the big unlocks, the selling doesn't come for, you know, three, four, five, six months from now. That's when like Elon and the employees unlock. But this guy had liquid shares on day one. So I went through the SPV docs and he was charging 30% of the first day's rally. You know, obviously we all agree it's gonna, it was gonna rally on day one. He was like, as a fee for this access, I'm gonna charge of the price appreciation times the dollar value of your shares on day one.
- [13:12]
Avi
I'm making the face that people hating our thumbnail because that's the most ridiculous thing. I'm like 30% of first day price appreciation is. I've never heard such a horrific spv.
- [13:21]
Jonah
Right? That's his fee. And then there was nothing in the SPV about the delivery mechanism. So if there was a problem transferring the shares, then you could be in a scenario where it rallies a lot. On day one, you owe a huge fee, but by the time the shares actually hit your account, the stock is down 50%. So you just get like double dildo is the technical term for that. And so basically I said pass. You know, I'm looking at it now. It's up 25%. I guess I would have captured 17% of that on the size I was willing to do. That was still, you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars of profit that I'm foregoing. So I'm feeling a little fomo. But I have to remind myself in these times, as everybody out there is probably feeling a little bit of fomo, there's no efficient way to trade this right now other than to do. One of the best trades of my life was just waiting for Facebook to collapse after it IPO'd on all the insider selling and then buying that dip. I bought $19 or $18 a share, idiotically. I sold it all at 30 and missed the run up to $700. But I did get a good buy in. So I think that may be the playbook here. It's just sit on your hands, wait till the insiders have way too much to sell so they can buy their SF, NY and LA real estate and then, then buy. I don't know, what do you think?
- [14:38]
Avi
I think, I think that's very. I think that's actually a very reasonable approach. But for me, I have, I have no idea whether SpaceX is going up 25% first or down 25% first. My bet would be down 25% first from current levels, because, yes, there probably is going to be some dumping. This could look very much like an airdrop trade, actually, where you basically just chuck out of the supply that's online right now, then you get a mega rally and then six months later you get all the share seasoning and then you settle at an actual reasonable price. So I mean, if we trade down, I mean, I have a trade here. If we trade down to 150 or really 135, because that's where that was priced. If we get to 135, that is a screaming buy. I mean, I'm shoving, I'm going to put, you know, I'll take an 8 to 10% position on that for like a quick 50% flip from there. Because people, I think a lot of retail feel like they missed it because a lot of people actually didn't get filled. Robinhood seemed to do the best job at filling people that bid for them. A lot of other banks and a lot of other people didn't actually get filled there. And so there's still a lot of retail because, because they cut down the allocation. So they originally were going to have 30% of the float allocated to retail and I think they got down to 20. And all the institutional capital, not all of the institutional, a lot of the institutional capital is held by long term holders, sovereign wealth funds, people that aren't going to sell. And so if we get back down, maybe we get to 140, maybe start scaling in like 142. You buy it, you resell it at 160, 170. That's, that's just a trade. That's a trade that I'm looking at on a more structural time horizon. I'm bullish on SpaceX. I think that the chip trade is still better because I think it's very difficult to go from 1.7 trillion to 3 trillion. Whereas I think intel could still get to 1, you know, 1, 1 trillion. I think, what is it, 600 billion or something like that now? So I think we could get there on Intel. We can get, we can, I mean sandisk is up, you know, from, from the recent low of 1400, it's already back up to 2000. It's pushing all time highs. So I think that's probably a better longer term trade. Midterm. I'm also rebuying uranium. I'm rebuying a lot of uranium. After that, after that sell off, I'm deploying some of that cash. I know I, I said on the last thought I was 50% cash. And basically what happened that was great, is that it looks like we're coming to a deal with Iran. And not only that, the market just keeps printing. I mean we just keep making money across the board. So I'm, I'm pretty bullish, man. I'm, I'm sort of flipping back to a little bit of short term bullishness. I do think that one thing we're gonna have to watch out for is just in the next week we actually have the first wow. Spam calls go crazy. We got the first Fed meeting with Kevin Warsh, which I think is. You were gonna need to pay attention to that. I mean, nothing's gonna happen. I think it's a 99 chance that nothing, quite literally nothing's gonna happen. But we get to hear him speak and we get to hear what he's interested in, what he's, what he's nervous about and if he'll give us forward guidance or not. Which, you know, he, he's, he's not as, he's no Powell and he's, he said that. But, you know, we'll, we'll, we'll basically see how he decides to run the ship. And that's actually going to be very interesting because, I mean, if, if he's confident enough, if he's very confident in position and we go into a hike cycle, I mean, we're back to where we were. But for now, I'm like, okay, I tried, I tried to be bearish. We sold off a decent amount. I. And then we bounced. And now things are trending, trending back to, I mean, basically like on intel, right? Intel. I was like, okay, maybe on the last few pods, I'm like, okay, I kind of want to buy sub 100. Maybe, maybe even get to like 80. Then what happens is intel trades, 99 bucks bounces, and then this thing with Google comes out and I'm like, well, what am I supposed to do? I got to get, I have to get back into this thing because they just signed a massive contract with Google and it seems like they're actually being competitive again. And so I think I'm sort of. I'm getting back in the market now because I think you just kind of
- [19:01]
Jonah
have to pick out your spots.
- [19:04]
Avi
Yeah, picking your spots. And I think I'm just going to sit on my hands for the time being and look for trades like the SpaceX. And one reason that I'm bullish. This tells you what's happening in the market. This tells you how different the market is today than it's ever been in the past. Every other space company, rklb, Spice, or Virgin Galactic. I call it Spice because of the ticker, but it's. Every other space company is down 30% today. Jonah, why do you think that is? Because they were all filled with retail. People were piggybacking. This was like the classic crypto trade. People were just piggybacking on this idea, on this narrative. They're like, oh, what? People don't know where to put their money. They're like, I'm going to put my money in freaking rocket lab. Because SpaceX is IPOing. And that has nothing to do with how well Rocket Lab is going to do. Nothing to do with how well Virgin Galactic is going to do. In fact, it probably makes Virgin Galactic less interesting. And yet Virgin Galactic doubles leading up into the ipo. Retail is going nuts. They're just shoving money in everything. And that, that sell off today is the liquidity suck. That's why I think that the OpenAI and Anthropic IPO will be a bearish event for the market. You heard it here first or second or third. I mean, a couple people have had this take, but very specifically, I'm looking at what happened in space. There are a lot more AI. Google's an AI. Jason play Amazon's AI adjacent. All of the Mag 7 is AI adjacent. When new supply comes online for the same vertical, money shifts around. And if OpenAI and Anthropic are not included in the NASDAQ, indexes are going to go down just as a function of money sloshing around.
- [20:58]
Jonah
They're not. They're not going to be. They're unprofitable. So, exactly.
- [21:00]
Avi
So like. So, so, so you see what I'm saying? They're gonna, the indexes are gonna go down. There might actually be net wealth creation in the market. Right, Net Net. If people bid OpenAI and bid Anthropic and pull out of these other assets, we might have a richer world. But the indexes by virtue of construction are not going to do well in my personal opinion.
- [21:23]
Jonah
Yeah, imagine SpaceX, all those big boys unlock and try to get their liquidity they've been waiting 20 years for. Right at the same time as OpenAI and Anthropic come to market. It's a lot of selling, frankly. So, I mean, it's funny you talk about retail just struggling to, you know, cash is trash. You can't just save your money anymore because they keep printing dollars. So you try to put your money somewhere. Space is cool. It's definitely a megatrend. The image of Elon Musk's optimus robots running a mass driver on the moon, launching data centers into deep outer space is like kind of compelling to a lot of people. It's a lot more exciting to hop on that bandwagon than, you know, crypto or whatever else. So people are putting their money there. But I saw a tweet that kind of captures the zeitgeist of what's going on right now in SpaceX. This guy McAllister Higgins writes, I'm at the bottom of a multi layer SPV and I'm looking forward to the SpaceX IPO in much the same way a golden retriever looks forward to a car ride. Thrilled to be involved, no clue how cars work, and unsure if we're going to the park or if I'm getting neutered and getting my balls cut off. Right. Like, that's kind of, you know, without much further ado, that kind of when
- [22:44]
Avi
you neuter a dog, they still end up happy.
- [22:48]
Jonah
Yeah, exactly.
- [22:49]
Avi
So that's what retail is doing. Can we clip that? The clip of Jonah, just like that 3 1/2 millisecond bit
- [22:58]
Jonah
is based on, basically retail is. And I don't want to, I don't want to be condescending to retail. I'm. I'm just retail too.
- [23:06]
Avi
In some of these stocks, like, we're all retail now. We used to not be retail, so we used to be on top of the game. In fact, I was one of the youngest people ever managing over a billion dollars in crypto. Fun fact, when I was at Blocktowers, 26 years old, managing a billion and a half dollars. And now I just dick around on live stream with you guys because why not?
- [23:28]
Jonah
You're a YouTuber now.
- [23:29]
Avi
Now, now, now I'm a street. I, I mean, I don't think I'm a streamer. I still don't. I think of myself as an investor and a trader and I think of myself and you. I mean, your partner at vital. Largest. Come on. One of the largest commodity oil trading shops in the world. But I guess, I guess it's the largest. I guess we're just streamers now. Is that what we are?
- [23:48]
Jonah
We're, we're entrepreneurs, we're retail. Put it this way, like sometimes I'm
- [23:53]
Avi
you now because I don't have a billion dollars of my own.
- [23:58]
Jonah
I mean, put it this way, Avi, I think the way I think, like that golden retriever excited to be in the car, not sure if we're going to the park or going to the vet kind of thing. Honestly, even when you're sitting at Vitol trading oil with your finger on the pulse, the back channels to opec, all the information in the world, sometimes you feel like that. And I think right now even the biggest institutions feel that way with SpaceX, like Goldman Sachs came out with a euphoric projection about Elon Musk building cities on Mars. And so you have to buy SpaceX at 1.75 trillion, it's just because they want the business.
- [24:34]
Avi
By the way, they. Hell, they got it. They made $100 million on fees. I think all the banks in aggregate pulled out 500 million, which takes me back. I'm slowly becoming a communist. This is, this is like the most erratic. I mean, like five years ago I was a fascist. I mean, five years ago I held extremely conservative opinions. I mean, I was the first person that would say, you know, do you have the courage to hate the rich, but do you have the courage to hate the poor? I love that. I love that one.
- [25:04]
Jonah
But, oh my God,
- [25:07]
Avi
you know. Yeah, you have these ideas, you know, you know, there are definitely people out there that create their own misery. But the way that the market and the way that wealthy people are acting today, like they have a God given right to just continue to be more wealthy at the expense of the middle class, is slowly turning me into a communist. It's like maybe, like, maybe some of these, like Jason Kalakanakis shouldn't like take his money. Take that guy's money. What is he doing for the world?
- [25:33]
Jonah
His tweet. If you're in crypto, pivot to AI. Oh my God. What a tweet.
- [25:38]
Avi
Like take, like, take these money, like every VC fund, take their money. Just redistribute it and give it. You know, actually, I really deeply respect Jeff Bezos and I deeply respect Elon Musk and I deeply respect Larry Ellison and I deeply respect everyone that's building a company. What I don't respect are the people that now have so much capital in the private markets that they're hoarding all of the wealth generated by the high functioning, high production people in our society. That's not okay. You can't do that. You have to build for the, for the country. You have to build for the community. That's what makes a civil society strong. Right. When you look back, when you look back at what the robber. They called them robber barons.
- [26:21]
Jonah
Yeah. They built universities.
- [26:23]
Avi
Universities. They built libraries. They built public works, they built parks. They put their names on everything and they built for society. They made the world a better place for your average person. And we need to do that. That's actually very important, which is why
- [26:38]
Jonah
sometimes they didn't even put their names on it. Like Rockefeller. UChicago is not called Rockefeller University. Yeah, I mean, I honestly, that's my biggest problem with this latest.
- [26:48]
Avi
I've shifted a lot in my politics because of the way that people are acting.
- [26:53]
Jonah
They ought to build some stuff that would be good.
- [26:57]
Avi
The issue is you can't have the government manage the money because the incentives aren't there. But maybe there's a third secret way that we haven't talked about Georgia's own. But we'll get into that another time. What else?
- [27:10]
Jonah
I got a dip. Not much is on my mind other than I saw you streaming and I wanted to stream bomb you. Dude, this, you got. You got some good takes here. You're making me feel a little bit less FOMO today. Thank you.
- [27:22]
Avi
Well, Jono, leave us with something. Tell us something that you're excited for this weekend.
- [27:30]
Jonah
I am just excited to spend time with my family. I know that's a boring answer, but I'm now at the point in my life where my kids are starting to be really fun. So that's. That's exciting for me. How about you?
- [27:43]
Avi
I'm excited. I'm excited to have a relaxing weekend. It's been a long week. I hope everybody has a wonderful Friday. If you're Jewish, Shabbat shalom. If you're not, Shabbat shalom. Anyway, have a great weekend. You know, I go to. Go to church on Sunday, I guess.
- [28:02]
Jonah
Shabbat shalom, everyone. Shabbat shalom. Avi, love talking to you. Sorry to stream bomb you. Get back to it. I. I apologize for that.
- [28:09]
Avi
No, I'm. I'm probably. I'm probably not lasting much longer here. But if you're in the chat, if you're listening right now, if you're live listening, hop in the chat. Ask me anything. I'll kick it with you guys. I'll do like a little Q A if anyone has any. Anything to talk about. Otherwise, I'll just. I'll just hop. Because again, I'm. I'm no. I'm no live Streamer. I'm no YouTuber. I don't know what to talk about. It's kind of weird talking to myself, to be completely honest with you. The only thing I'll leave you with here is thoughts on aptos. Yeah, Crypto's, man. We'll BLEEP that when we upload it. But crypto's done. Infrastructure is done. I mean, all these things are just cabals at this point with tremendous amounts of insiders and. I mean, Charles Hoskinson said it best. He's in the business of printing money, and that's what these L1s were. And it was maybe the biggest grift of a lifetime of, quite literally could not imagine a bigger grift. Everybody knew what was going on. Like, everybody behind the scenes kind of knew what was going on with most of these L1 infrastructure projects. Nobody really took them seriously. It was a trade for most people and there are a few real ones that actually did try to build. I mean Solana, I think, you know, for all their faults, they, they really genuinely are trying to build financial products and that's, that's a little different. But the things like aptos were just, I think basically a complete grift from, from the start. That's going to upset some people, but it's, it's probably true. And I, I sort of feel the same way about the cantons of the world that are coming out now, but I guess, I guess we'll see actually that is important. The XMR pump I on one of the streams, I think the ratio of ZEC to XMR was trading at 0.68. And I said I was very bullish on it. And then what ended up, what ended up happening is obviously zcash had that quote unquote hack or sorry, there was a bug which may have led to the printing of infinite zcash. Very unlikely. We'll know in a few months whether it happened or not. Extremely unlikely. But it led to a 30 sell off. There was that massive, massive spike up. And just as a general piece of advice, anytime you get a massive five standard deviation move like that, close out every trade that you have on that asset. Whether if you're, if you're winning it, you know, if you're winning, right? If, if you're losing then you can sort of rejugger it. But I was long XMR short ZEC because I thought the ratio would converge. That spike happens. You have to get out, right? Like you have to get out on those types of things. You can't get greedy when there's a news based because the market's becoming a lot more efficient and these news based rallies or dumps tend to revert and so you have to get out of those trades. I view it kind of the same as today. Like if you were short all these space companies, expecting them to do poorly in the face of the SpaceX IPO, you have to get out of that trade. Now that we've had five standard six standard deviation move on some of these assets, right. And so I'm no longer in that XMR trade. I do really like the idea of XMR continuing to do well over the long run. I just don't like the idea of shorting zcash because I'm actually quite constructive on zcash let's see. I think that collectibles are a megatrend. I mean, I talked about this on the last podcast, but right now what you have is you have a massive wealth transfer happening between boomers and Gen Z millennials. Gen Z millennials really love TCGs cards, collectibles. Anything that appeals to people under the age of 35 I think will continue to go up, whether it's baseball cards or Pokemon cards or Yu Gi oh cards. And not just cards. I mean, you know, figure out what, what is, what is the new hot thing in Silicon Valley that people are going to want to collect because they're. What do you think the SpaceX guys are going to want to buy? Maybe moon rocks? I don't know. You tell me. But people don't want to just put their money in the index fund anymore because I do genuinely believe that index funds will underperform actual active selection. I think this is probably going to be like a decade of hedge funds because of the way that things are shaping up. I mean, when you, and, and, and VC funds and, and, and the private markets, that's sort of the new, that's sort of the new game, right? And I think people are starting to realize this. That's why every single person in Silicon Valley that makes money, every single person in tech, even now people in the finance world, they're doing a lot like the average person that makes money is. This is, I'm totally making up this number. So if I'm off by an order of magnitude, please don't shoot me. I would wager it's the, the average person is doing 15 to 20x more volume in angel investment than they were doing 10 years ago. Angel investing has just become a much bigger thing because people realize that the private markets are where, where the alpha is and you can't just go invest in the index fund anymore. So I also do think that because of the way that the markets are trading and because of how much more retail are, are in the market, how much money is for is, is in the market from retail, quant funds are probably going to continue to crush it. I mean, you're just going to see, you're just going to see people absolutely clean up in that world. So if you can figure out how to invest in some quant funds, that would be great. I've talked about this before. Intel at 25 sold it. That's tough, man. That's really tough. To be completely honest, it is just something that you have to forget every day. If you're a trader when you wake up and you look at the market, you have to look at everything with fresh eyes. In fact, I don't look at my P and L at all when I'm actively trading. P and L is a disease of the mind. Whether it's red or whether it's green, whether you're up a million bucks or down 10, your piano doesn't matter and it never will. What matters is the price of the asset today and whether it will go up or down in the next day. 2 weeks, 4 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months. You have to take everything day by day and reevaluate day by day. You have to have the memory of a goldfish. When it comes to, to trading, when it, when it, when it, when it comes to lost trades is really what I'm saying. One of the hardest things to do as a trader is selling an asset and rebuying it higher because you're constantly thinking of what could have been. And that is just a really bad way to live your life. I mean, it's a bad way, not just in trading, but in everything. You have to be resilient. You genuinely have to be a resilient human in order to be successful as a trader. And the reality is that there are a lot of people that aren't resilient. And that's okay. If you know yourself and you know emotionally, it's going to be very hard for you to stomach losses and get back in. You have two choices. One, you train yourself to not care. And that's by erasing. I mean, if, if it helps you go set up a new brokerage account so you don't even see your old trades. I mean, I've, I've actually done that before. I've opened new accounts and refunded them because I'm like, I don't want to think about my old trades. I don't want to see them. I'm just going to move, move my money somewhere else. If you're in crypto, just like make a new wall and move your shit over there. There are all sorts of little tricks that you can do, but the reality is that you have to be resilient in order to be successful as a trader. Pikachu. Yes, that's Pikachu. Was that a question or you just wanted to say Pikachu?
- [36:04]
Jonah
Ena.
- [36:05]
Avi
All time lows. Looking attractive. I have no view on Ena. I personally don't think that it makes sense as an asset long term. Like, I don't think that harvesting, I mean, you know, Issuing a stable coin backed by perps. I mean, It's a very 20, 23 kind of idea. And so there might be a pump, it might go up, it might go down my bets in five years, it doesn't exist. I'm super bullish on Hood and I've been bullish on Hood for a long time. I think that Hood is probably going to outperform Hype. My guess is right now Hood probably outperforms Hype over the next six to 12 months because Hood has a much larger, much diversified income stream. And the reality is that Hype you now just have to look at as a company. Hype is now a financial infrastructure company and you comp it to Robinhood or Robinhood makes more money. It has higher margins in terms of. Sorry, it has more income streams. Hype has higher margins, it has more income streams. And I think it has higher growth potential right now because it has a lot more institutional backing. I mean, just for example, like, Hype's never going to get the Trump accounts. Trump accounts are an amazing lock in. You might see more wins from Hood like that. I love Hype still. I think it's a great asset. I've owned it. I haven't really sold much. I sold a little bit, but it is a great asset. I just don't view it as something that will. It's not a 10 bagger for me anymore. Whereas I actually think Hood could be a 10 bagger still. So I'm, I'm in, I'm in a Hood until, until a thousand bucks. Unless, unless I see Hype come out, sign a deal with the cftc, build an app that is competitive with Robinhood and start to become more like an actual fintech. Then I think I would bet on Hype more. I'd probably move over more assets to Hype. I'm not seeing that happening right now. So I'm waiting on Hype. I think a lot of the price action from Hype is, is always, oh, wow, my God. We got a lot of, a lot of commenters. You guys comment way more when it's just me. What is it? It's just easier to talk when it's just me. Are you guys scared of Jonah? I don't understand. Any thoughts on training by trading via mobile? Don't ever trade on your mobile app unless you like, really have to. I think that you, every, every trade that you take, you should have written down at least two to three paragraphs and why you're taking that trade. And I think that's very like Mobile is a very difficult. Let me take a step back. It's tough to trade on mobile because it incentivizes quick behaviors. It incentivizes you effectively to gamble a little bit more because it feels and looks and acts like a dopamine hit. And so I try not to trade on mobile. I try not to make decisions on mobile. I trade on mobile if I have an idea and I need to execute it quickly, and I'm not next to a computer. I'll still write down some notes. But I do think that trading on mobile can be psychologically dangerous for a lot of people. You guys will probably make more money trading on desktop. In fact, most of you probably don't need to trade that much. Most of you can probably go buy Uranium, Intel, SanDisk, Google, and trade SpaceX when it hits that target I was talking about. Sit in those things for the next three months and make more money than you would otherwise make trading. We are in my job. This is not financial advice. Nothing here is financial advice. But my job as somebody that comes from the world of both traditional finance and crypto and was reasonably successful and does this for a lot of fun because it is amazing. My job is to give you the frameworks to navigate effectively. My job is not necessarily to give you specific trades, but help you think about how you might approach the market. And the way that I would suggest approaching the market is you. Right now. We are at an inflection point. I really do agree with Andrew Kang on this. It is much better to trim around the edges when things look scary or overheated and just try to rebuild major positions in megatrend assets. But the core of it should be holding those megatrend assets for the next three to five years or diversifying out into things that I think you think could do well. If you feel like you have an edge. If you feel like you have an edge in collecting cars, I think that cars will probably outperform the stock market in the next two years. That would be my guess. I think that there are probably some cards that will outperform the stock market in the next years. There are probably some Roman coins that will outperform the stock market in the next two years. If you think that you're smart enough or have enough edge in that world, you know, by all means, go ahead. I. I do think what's also kind of interesting is I, I made. I don't really bet on sports at all, but I downloaded Kalshi. This is not an ad, but if Kalshi wants to Sponsor us. Bring it on. Come on. We'll take your money, but this is not ad. I. I. I bet for the first time. Like, seriously bet for the first time on Kelsey. And I did it at the halftime of the Knicks. I bet on the Knicks, and that was the quickest thing I bet at 6,7%. It's like the quickest return I've ever had in my entire life. And I can see how it was addicting. I mean, I'll put in 100 bucks. I think I made 1300. Not a lot of money, obviously, but I was shocked at how it triggered me from an emotional perspective. Wow, that was really fun. That was crazy. I really enjoyed that. And you kind of want to do it again, but you know that it's just entertainment. And what I would suggest to you is really try to figure out if you have an edge in your specific sector. And this is why we're going to be doing a lot more guest interviews moving forward. I'm going to be helping you guys think through different, you know, bringing on experts in every sector so that you guys can help build the frameworks for yourself to generate edge in the areas that you want to generate edge in. But that's your. That's your goal. Your goal is not to just listen to podcasts and tweets and ape things. Your goal is to get good at something. Really get good at something. Right? How did I make my money? I got really good at trading crypto when I was 22 years old. I spent all my time on it. Turned 40 million into 1.5 billion at a hedge fund. I had an edge. Now spending a lot more time on equities, spending a lot more time outside of crypto trying to generate new edge. That's your job as a trader and an investor. You just constantly have to keep searching for edge. What else? I think I got a hop here, but this was really fun. I guess live streaming by myself isn't so bad. I guess I do have some things to say to you guys, so. Oh, I did tell you. I'd tell you guys I'd talk about that painting back there. So that actually is a. My favorite song is Iris by the Goo Goo Dolls. I actually don't really care for their other stuff. That's the only song that I like. I've always liked it. And I got a painting of an iris signed by the lead singer of the Goo Goo Dolls. And that's what. That's what that is. I think it's. I think it's kind of fun. So for, for those of you that were asking. And by the way, that wasn't a humble brag. I was just, I was, I was just bragging. Sorry. Sometimes, sometimes it takes a hold of me and you just gotta spell it out. All right, guys, this was a pleasure. Thank you guys for tuning in. As always. Last little bits. Please subscribe. It really helps us if you're not subscribed to our YouTube. Go click that button. Go like this video when it's, when it's uploaded. And then also our telegram chat is going to be in the link and our terminal is at 1000x money. Sign up for it. Give us feedback right over there. We, me and Jonah really appreciate you. I'm going to be doing this live stream a lot more on Friday. And so everybody just come with questions, come hang out in the chat. Maybe one of these days we'll bring up a random commenter. That kind of would be fun, especially if they're kind of nuts. All right, guys, have a great weekend. Take care, everybody.
- [45:05]
Jonah
Foreign. Nothing said on the Thousand X podcast is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products. This podcast is for informational purposes only and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice or necessarily the views of one KX Media. Our hosts, guests, and the one KX team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed.