Podcast Summary: 2050: Degrees of Change

Episode 4 – Cities

Host: Johanna Wagstaffe (CBC Meteorologist)
Date: June 12, 2017

Episode Overview

This episode of 2050: Degrees of Change focuses on how cities—specifically Vancouver—are projected to adapt to climate change by the year 2050. Host Johanna Wagstaffe examines ambitious sustainability goals, changes in infrastructure, energy systems, and the wellbeing of urban populations. Through expert interviews and scenario-based storytelling, the episode addresses both the challenges and innovations that will define city life in a warmer, more populous future.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Setting the Scene: Living in a 2050 City

• The episode opens with a simulated day in 2050 Vancouver, outlining lifestyle changes—AI assistants coordinate transportation, community responses follow extreme weather events, and city life is shaped by resilient infrastructure.
  Notable Moment: "A reminder that your family Thanksgiving meal is planned for a 4pm start. Do you want to schedule an autonomous car pickup..." (00:32)

Vancouver’s Green Ambitions

• Doug Smith, Director of Sustainability for Vancouver, details the city’s push to be the "greenest city in the world," using real targets and accountability:

  • 50% mode split (walking, biking, transit) achieved by 2015
  • Aims for 100% renewable energy and 80% reduction in greenhouse gases (GHG) below 2007 levels by 2050 (03:10-03:45)

• Urban neighborhoods like Olympic Village are highlighted as examples:

  • Designed for people, not cars
  • Neighborhood energy utility reuses sewer heat, reducing GHG by 60%
  • Remaining challenges: Sea level rise adaptation for coastal communities
    Quote:

"There isn’t an Oscar for greenest city in the world, so no one’s going to give us a prize ... but we measure and report publicly every year.”
— Doug Smith (03:19)

The Future of Energy & Transportation

• Vancouver currently gets 31% of energy from renewable sources (mostly hydro), but aims to increase this, especially as density grows (06:29)
  • Shift to electric, shared, autonomous vehicles is expected
  • Charging infrastructure is rapidly expanding, transitioning away from gas stations (07:17-08:24) Quote:

"We really think cars are going to be a lot like your cell phone. You're going to charge them at home, at work... not like a gas station anymore."
— Doug Smith (07:25)

• Policy drivers:
  • Significant carbon tax increase ($50/ton in 2022 to $200/ton in 2050) propelled change
  • Stringent building codes and retrofit incentives support transition to carbon-neutral buildings (08:24-10:37)

Adapting Urban Spaces: Infrastructure and the Built Environment

• Steven Shepherd (UBC, urban forestry) and his "Future Delta" simulation highlight adaptation options:
  • Raising dikes, tidal gates, managed retreat from vulnerable areas
  • Floating, energy-independent communities with local food and renewable power (11:45-12:59) Quote:

"A floating community that has wind power, tidal power, solar panels, and local food grown in greenhouses ... very different from what we see now."
— Steven Shepherd (11:46)

• Building design for climate change:
  • Mark Porter (Associated Engineering) stresses integrating mitigation and adaptation:
    • Robust, energy-efficient, smaller-footprint homes
    • Mechanical equipment elevated for flood risk
  • John Vanderden (Associated Engineering) explains adaptive dike design: build for current standards with ability to raise, as sea levels rise (18:03-23:32) Quote:

"When it comes to buildings, you can't divorce mitigation from adaptation. The two go hand in hand."
— Mark Porter (18:38)

Economic and Political Hurdles

• Enormous costs for adaptation: $32 billion in damages if no action; $10 billion required for dikes, levees, etc.
• Cities can’t bear these costs alone—provincial and federal support is needed (16:59) Quote:

"We're putting a huge burden on our children. But if we can mitigate now, hopefully it'll stop eventually and they won't be burdened with billions of dollars of infrastructure costs."
— Doug Smith (17:50)

• Laszlo Vashini from Enbridge acknowledges the renewable transition's speed but its intermittent nature ("it doesn't always produce"; 14:09-15:20):
  Quote:

“Technology adoption has been speeding up... The renewable energy business in Canada is just tremendously expanding.”
— Laszlo Vashini (14:09)

Human Health & Wellbeing in a Changing Climate

• Christy Ebai explains direct and indirect health effects:
  • More severe heat waves; increased hospitalizations and mortality
  • Higher ozone levels and poorer air quality, affecting those with respiratory issues
  • First Nations face loss of traditional medicines due to ecological changes (25:58-27:00) Quote:

"Unless we’re more effective with heat wave early warning systems, we’d also expect to see mortality go up..."
— Christy Ebai (25:58)

• Margo Parks discusses ecosystem impacts on well-being:
  • Changes in daily experiences (tastes, smells, landscapes)
  • Gradual and sudden changes disrupt sense of place, creating "loss, confusion, sadness, anxiety" (28:36-29:00) Quote:

"What I notice is the way people tell their stories to me about things that were and things that are now. And it's not a small thing when somebody wants to be able to coach you ..."
— Margo Parks (29:00)

The Next Battle: Fire

• The episode ends previewing forest fire impacts, emphasizing that dramatic, landscape-scale impacts will be an ongoing part of adaptation (32:24-32:49) Quote:

"Everything, all that side of the hill is on fire. The other side ... flames."
— Doug Smith (32:41)

Key Timestamps

• 00:32 – Scenario: A 2050 day in Vancouver
• 02:45 – Doug Smith on gradual city change and targets
• 05:00 – Sea level rise challenges and waterfront adaptation
• 07:17 – Electric vehicle infrastructure transition
• 08:24 – Detail on renewable energy, building codes, carbon tax
• 10:37 – Steven Shepherd on energy visibility and "Future Delta"
• 14:09 – Laszlo Vashini on renewables growth and challenges
• 16:59 – Financial costs of adaptation; the need for mitigation now
• 18:38 – Mark Porter on climate-resilient building design
• 20:45 – John Vanderden on adaptive dike engineering
• 25:58 – Christy Ebai: Health impacts of a warmer city
• 28:36 – Margo Parks: Well-being and relational impacts of change
• 32:24 – The emerging reality of catastrophic fires

Notable Quotes

• "There isn’t an Oscar for greenest city in the world ... We have hard targets that we measure every year."
  — Doug Smith (03:19)
• "We really think cars are going to be a lot like your cell phone... You basically just charge it wherever you happen to be parked at the time."
  — Doug Smith (07:25)
• "A floating community that has wind power, tidal power, solar panels ... a way that's very different perhaps from what we see right now."
  — Steven Shepherd (11:46)
• "Technology adoption has been speeding up over time ... The renewable energy business in Canada is just tremendously expanding."
  — Laszlo Vashini (14:09)
• "Buildings, structures last a very long time ... We have to design in adaptation."
  — Mark Porter (18:03)
• "Unless we're more effective with heat wave early warning systems, we'd also expect to see mortality go up..."
  — Christy Ebai (25:58)
• "The things that resonate most strongly for me are actually the micro events ... the sense of loss, the sense of confusion, the sense of sadness, the sense of anxiety."
  — Margo Parks (29:00)

Episode Tone

The tone is realistic and hopeful, acknowledging immense challenges but driven by creativity, policy innovation, and pragmatic engineering. The hosts and guests emphasize both the necessity and possibility of transformative change, balancing warnings with practical, community-focused adaptation strategies.

Conclusion

By 2050, cities like Vancouver could be fundamentally different: greener, denser, quieter, more interconnected, and better prepared for a changing climate. But this transformation requires coordinated policies, substantial investment, and ongoing innovation—plus a shift in how urban residents relate to their environment and each other.

The next episode will explore the growing threat and changing dynamics of fires in British Columbia’s forests and communities.