2WAY Morning Meeting - August 20, 2025

Episode Title: 2028 Heats Up: Why There's No Democratic Front-Runner, and Why Gavin Newsom is "Tier 1 by Himself"

Hosts: Mark Halperin, Sean Spicer, Dan Turrentine
Main Theme:
This episode offers an insider’s look at the state of American presidential politics as the 2028 race heats up, focusing heavily on the Democratic field (or lack thereof), Gavin Newsom’s rapid rise, and cross-party leadership dynamics. The hosts analyze current polling, party strategy, shifting voter registrations, and the growing influence of social media and political style over substance. Listeners are offered sharp takes on breaking news and direct Q&A with an active, informed audience.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. State of World Affairs: Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, and U.S. Leadership

• Putin’s Next Move:

  • The hosts are united in confusion surrounding Russia’s intentions, security guarantees for Ukraine, and lack of concrete diplomatic movement ([07:00], [08:33]).
  • Dan: Diplomacy likely to happen at a deputy level until after U.S. congressional pressure post-Labor Day or upon winter’s military pause ([09:24]).
  • Sean: Predicts President Trump will act unilaterally out of impatience, regardless of congressional or European pressure ([11:25]).
  • Mark: “If it’s Labor Day in two weeks and [Putin] hasn’t agreed to a meeting, I think the pressure will be overwhelming on the president to say, okay, we’re going to have to put some pressure on.” ([10:34])

• Israel-Gaza Developments:

  • Both parties are predicted to fracture further over U.S. and Israeli military actions.
  • Sean: “Netanyahu is looking for the perfect moment to go full barrel here… that’s going to be the triggering moment when everybody has to weigh in.” ([13:43])
  • Dan: Warns that if the U.S. increases its involvement abroad (Ukraine, then Gaza), it could spark backlash from America First factions ([14:14]).

2. Gavin Newsom’s Unprecedented Position for 2028

• A “Tier 1 by Himself” Candidate:

  • Mark, citing Politico and Patty Solis Doyle, frames Newsom as the only Democrat currently at the top of the pack, due to his aggressive national campaigning and digital presence.
  • Patty Solis Doyle ([15:41]): “Gavin Newsom has proven to really be able to [take on Trump’s style] thus far, and it’s been in a very short period of time. I think Democrats… were leaderless and messageless… but Gavin Newsom is sort of picking up that.”
  • Newsom’s confrontational social media tactics stand out: “He’s obviously now setting the standard for social media game, for getting the attention of the White House and for being fearless.” ([17:17])

• Enthusiasm, Substance, and the AOC Comparison:

  • Mark: Skeptical Newsom will actually run, foreseeing personal issues as barriers but acknowledges his strategic acumen and courage (e.g., same-sex marriage advocacy) ([17:00], [24:07]).
  • Dan: Argues Newsom’s rise is “style-driven” with little agenda depth, suggests AOC shares Tier 1 status due to her base-driven substance ([19:34], [26:21]).
  • Sean: Points out that Newsom’s “tough guy” act feels inauthentic compared to Trump’s genuine brawler persona ([22:34]).

Notable Quote ([24:07] – Mark Halperin):

“Gavin Newsom is not a light fraidy cat pretty boy. He is a tough street fighter. And this is pure authenticity…”

• Fox News Recoil:
  • The right/media deride Newsom’s online antics as “unbecoming” ([20:49] – Dana Perino).
  • Newsom’s willingness to “mock the Fox News host back” is framed as a template for Democratic pushback ([26:21]-[26:52]).

3. Voter Registration Crisis and Party Challenges

• Troubling Democratic Trends:
  • New York Times article reveals that, in all 29 states reporting registration by party, Republicans are gaining and Democrats are losing, a “crisis” with “no plan to deal with this” ([31:15], [36:27]).
  • AP / Wall Street Journal note both a hyper-political Trump White House and possible $2 billion war chest for J.D. Vance ([32:24]).
  • Dan: “The biggest story there is the voter registration issue… four and a half million people have switched. That is huge.” ([35:08])
  • Sean: Emphasizes that “every one of the 29 [states] that does voter registration by party has moved in the direction of the Republican Party” ([36:27]).

Notable Quote ([31:15] – Mark Halperin):

“The Democratic Party faces a voter registration crisis. That headline understates the case.”

4. “Style vs. Substance”: What We Miss About Today’s Candidates

• Perils of a “Style-First” Era:
  • Audience Q from Croft ([47:26]): “Gavin Newsom… puts up a meme tweet… and he’s a tier one candidate… can the guy run a gas station?”
  • Dan & Sean: Agree; politics now prizes “followers… infrastructure, not accomplishments” ([49:07]). Voters and consultants focus on “social media game,” leaving substantial governing records unexamined.
  • Mark: Compares Newsom’s candidacy to John Kerry’s: being “Tier 1” does not equate to being an ideal or popular candidate—the field is weak, and Newsom is simply best positioned ([50:16]).

5. AOC’s Shadow and Party Divides

• Is AOC Tier 1?
  • Dan: “She would probably be past [Newsom] in early state primary voting within the party,” citing grassroots energy ([19:34], [28:01]).
  • Mark & Sean: Express caution, placing her Tier 2 or 3, citing lack of infrastructure and uncertainty about electability ([29:00]).
  • Sean ([30:33-30:56]): “There’s a big difference in… who the base is excited about, who will vote… and who the DC Beltway media is obsessed with. That is the divide in the Democratic party right now.”

6. Audience Q&A Highlights

• Constituent access & DC crime ([38:59])

  • From Tracy (Buffalo): Frustration at non-responsive congressman and concerns about D.C. safety.
  • Dan & Sean: Advise persistence and specificity in contacting staffers; strongly agree DC crime is underreported due to media/political bias ([41:20], [43:32]).
  • Sean ([44:39]): “We know for a fact that [D.C. crime stats] are being cooked. It doesn’t take some huge Harvard study; it takes a mere walk down any street in D.C. to realize it’s not safe.”

• Effect of Never Trumpers and Hispanic vote shifts ([53:40])

  • From Gary (Miami): Asks about whether registration trends reflect GOP “coming home,” and future stars like Carolyn Levitt.
  • Sean & Dan: The registration shift is widespread, may include both anti-Trump and disaffected progressive elements; Levitt’s career prospects are strong, especially outside moderate New Hampshire ([55:22]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Mark Halperin ([10:34]):
  “If it’s Labor Day in two weeks and [Putin] hasn’t agreed to a meeting, I think the pressure will be overwhelming on the president to say, okay, we’re going to have to put some pressure on.”

• Sean Spicer ([22:34]):
  “This isn’t Gavin Newsom’s not known. Like, if Rahm Emanuel said a bunch of that stuff, I’d buy it… The point is Gavin’s not doing it because that's what Gavin really thinks. That's Gavin trying to emulate Trump. And… If that’s not you, you can’t. This is an authenticity issue…”

• Dan Turrentine ([19:34]):
  “He’s [Newsom] filling a vacuum… what Gavin is getting all this momentum over is style. And it’s real…”

• Dana Perino clip ([20:49]):
  “If I were his wife, I would say… you are making a fool of yourself. Stop it. Do not let your staff tweet.”

Key Timestamps (MM:SS)

• 07:00 – U.S. daybook and Putin situation
• 09:24 – Deputy-level diplomacy prediction; prospects for Ukraine
• 13:29 – U.S./Israel and Gaza and party fracture
• 15:41 – Patty Solis Doyle on Newsom’s rise
• 17:17 – Newsom’s digital strategy
• 19:34 – Dan’s “vacuum” and AOC argument
• 20:49 – Dana Perino’s “unbecoming" remarks
• 22:34 – Sean: authenticity and style
• 24:07 – Mark: Newsom’s bravery and authenticity
• 26:21 – Dan: “Party has desperately wanted” this pushback
• 28:01 – Dan: AOC, base energy, volunteers
• 31:15 – Four bad stories for Democrats
• 36:27 – Sean: every state with party reg. shifting GOP
• 38:59 – Tracy’s Q: Congressional access, DC crime
• 47:26 – Croft’s Q: Newsom’s substance, lack of scrutiny
• 50:16 – Mark: Newsom = Kerry; “Tier 1” ≠ ideal
• 53:40 – Gary’s Q: never Trumpers, Carolyn Levitt
• 56:09 – Sean: New registered voters
• 57:25 – Dan: Dissident Dems leaving the party
• 58:45 – Gary: Latino perspectives in Florida

Tone and Dynamics

• Spirited, fast-moving banter with a mix of inside-baseball and audience participation.
• Frequent self-deprecating humor, playful ribbing (“don’t judge AOC by the crowd size, Dan!”).
• Clear affinity for open, occasionally confrontational dialogue—a “meeting” in the literal sense.

In Summary:

This episode of 2WAY’s Morning Meeting provides a state-of-the-race tour through both the chaos and strategies dominating the early 2028 presidential campaign, with a particular eye on the Democratic Party’s struggles, Gavin Newsom’s “tier 1” isolation, and core challenges around authenticity, voter enthusiasm, and party infrastructure.

• Mark, Sean, and Dan agree: Newsom is the lone Democrat with momentum, but faces questions about substance and authenticity.
• Voter registration shifts and a lack of consensus strategy are major warning signs for Democrats.
• Audience Q&A adds depth on constituent services, urban crime, and Hispanic voting trends.
• Key Theme: In an era where political style can eclipse policy substance, tribal engagement, and digital tactics are fast becoming the new determinants of “tier 1” status.

For listeners seeking a forecast of the ’28 field, a diagnosis of voter sentiment, or a window into the “meeting before the news,” this episode is an essential, richly detailed companion for navigating the next months of campaign drama.