2028 Heats Up: Why There's no Democratic Front-Runner, and Why Gavin Newsom is "Tier 1 by Himself"

Summary

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2WAY Morning Meeting - August 20, 2025

Episode Title: 2028 Heats Up: Why There's No Democratic Front-Runner, and Why Gavin Newsom is "Tier 1 by Himself"

Hosts: Mark Halperin, Sean Spicer, Dan Turrentine
Main Theme:
This episode offers an insider’s look at the state of American presidential politics as the 2028 race heats up, focusing heavily on the Democratic field (or lack thereof), Gavin Newsom’s rapid rise, and cross-party leadership dynamics. The hosts analyze current polling, party strategy, shifting voter registrations, and the growing influence of social media and political style over substance. Listeners are offered sharp takes on breaking news and direct Q&A with an active, informed audience.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. State of World Affairs: Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, and U.S. Leadership

• Putin’s Next Move:

  • The hosts are united in confusion surrounding Russia’s intentions, security guarantees for Ukraine, and lack of concrete diplomatic movement ([07:00], [08:33]).
  • Dan: Diplomacy likely to happen at a deputy level until after U.S. congressional pressure post-Labor Day or upon winter’s military pause ([09:24]).
  • Sean: Predicts President Trump will act unilaterally out of impatience, regardless of congressional or European pressure ([11:25]).
  • Mark: “If it’s Labor Day in two weeks and [Putin] hasn’t agreed to a meeting, I think the pressure will be overwhelming on the president to say, okay, we’re going to have to put some pressure on.” ([10:34])

• Israel-Gaza Developments:

  • Both parties are predicted to fracture further over U.S. and Israeli military actions.
  • Sean: “Netanyahu is looking for the perfect moment to go full barrel here… that’s going to be the triggering moment when everybody has to weigh in.” ([13:43])
  • Dan: Warns that if the U.S. increases its involvement abroad (Ukraine, then Gaza), it could spark backlash from America First factions ([14:14]).

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2. Gavin Newsom’s Unprecedented Position for 2028

• A “Tier 1 by Himself” Candidate:

  • Mark, citing Politico and Patty Solis Doyle, frames Newsom as the only Democrat currently at the top of the pack, due to his aggressive national campaigning and digital presence.
  • Patty Solis Doyle ([15:41]): “Gavin Newsom has proven to really be able to [take on Trump’s style] thus far, and it’s been in a very short period of time. I think Democrats… were leaderless and messageless… but Gavin Newsom is sort of picking up that.”
  • Newsom’s confrontational social media tactics stand out: “He’s obviously now setting the standard for social media game, for getting the attention of the White House and for being fearless.” ([17:17])

• Enthusiasm, Substance, and the AOC Comparison:

  • Mark: Skeptical Newsom will actually run, foreseeing personal issues as barriers but acknowledges his strategic acumen and courage (e.g., same-sex marriage advocacy) ([17:00], [24:07]).
  • Dan: Argues Newsom’s rise is “style-driven” with little agenda depth, suggests AOC shares Tier 1 status due to her base-driven substance ([19:34], [26:21]).
  • Sean: Points out that Newsom’s “tough guy” act feels inauthentic compared to Trump’s genuine brawler persona ([22:34]).

Notable Quote ([24:07] – Mark Halperin):

“Gavin Newsom is not a light fraidy cat pretty boy. He is a tough street fighter. And this is pure authenticity…”

• Fox News Recoil:
  • The right/media deride Newsom’s online antics as “unbecoming” ([20:49] – Dana Perino).
  • Newsom’s willingness to “mock the Fox News host back” is framed as a template for Democratic pushback ([26:21]-[26:52]).

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3. Voter Registration Crisis and Party Challenges

• Troubling Democratic Trends:
  • New York Times article reveals that, in all 29 states reporting registration by party, Republicans are gaining and Democrats are losing, a “crisis” with “no plan to deal with this” ([31:15], [36:27]).
  • AP / Wall Street Journal note both a hyper-political Trump White House and possible $2 billion war chest for J.D. Vance ([32:24]).
  • Dan: “The biggest story there is the voter registration issue… four and a half million people have switched. That is huge.” ([35:08])
  • Sean: Emphasizes that “every one of the 29 [states] that does voter registration by party has moved in the direction of the Republican Party” ([36:27]).

Notable Quote ([31:15] – Mark Halperin):

“The Democratic Party faces a voter registration crisis. That headline understates the case.”

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4. “Style vs. Substance”: What We Miss About Today’s Candidates

• Perils of a “Style-First” Era:
  • Audience Q from Croft ([47:26]): “Gavin Newsom… puts up a meme tweet… and he’s a tier one candidate… can the guy run a gas station?”
  • Dan & Sean: Agree; politics now prizes “followers… infrastructure, not accomplishments” ([49:07]). Voters and consultants focus on “social media game,” leaving substantial governing records unexamined.
  • Mark: Compares Newsom’s candidacy to John Kerry’s: being “Tier 1” does not equate to being an ideal or popular candidate—the field is weak, and Newsom is simply best positioned ([50:16]).

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5. AOC’s Shadow and Party Divides

• Is AOC Tier 1?
  • Dan: “She would probably be past [Newsom] in early state primary voting within the party,” citing grassroots energy ([19:34], [28:01]).
  • Mark & Sean: Express caution, placing her Tier 2 or 3, citing lack of infrastructure and uncertainty about electability ([29:00]).
  • Sean ([30:33-30:56]): “There’s a big difference in… who the base is excited about, who will vote… and who the DC Beltway media is obsessed with. That is the divide in the Democratic party right now.”

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6. Audience Q&A Highlights

• Constituent access & DC crime ([38:59])

  • From Tracy (Buffalo): Frustration at non-responsive congressman and concerns about D.C. safety.
  • Dan & Sean: Advise persistence and specificity in contacting staffers; strongly agree DC crime is underreported due to media/political bias ([41:20], [43:32]).
  • Sean ([44:39]): “We know for a fact that [D.C. crime stats] are being cooked. It doesn’t take some huge Harvard study; it takes a mere walk down any street in D.C. to realize it’s not safe.”

• Effect of Never Trumpers and Hispanic vote shifts ([53:40])

  • From Gary (Miami): Asks about whether registration trends reflect GOP “coming home,” and future stars like Carolyn Levitt.
  • Sean & Dan: The registration shift is widespread, may include both anti-Trump and disaffected progressive elements; Levitt’s career prospects are strong, especially outside moderate New Hampshire ([55:22]).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Mark Halperin ([10:34]):
  “If it’s Labor Day in two weeks and [Putin] hasn’t agreed to a meeting, I think the pressure will be overwhelming on the president to say, okay, we’re going to have to put some pressure on.”

• Sean Spicer ([22:34]):
  “This isn’t Gavin Newsom’s not known. Like, if Rahm Emanuel said a bunch of that stuff, I’d buy it… The point is Gavin’s not doing it because that's what Gavin really thinks. That's Gavin trying to emulate Trump. And… If that’s not you, you can’t. This is an authenticity issue…”

• Dan Turrentine ([19:34]):
  “He’s [Newsom] filling a vacuum… what Gavin is getting all this momentum over is style. And it’s real…”

• Dana Perino clip ([20:49]):
  “If I were his wife, I would say… you are making a fool of yourself. Stop it. Do not let your staff tweet.”

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Key Timestamps (MM:SS)

• 07:00 – U.S. daybook and Putin situation
• 09:24 – Deputy-level diplomacy prediction; prospects for Ukraine
• 13:29 – U.S./Israel and Gaza and party fracture
• 15:41 – Patty Solis Doyle on Newsom’s rise
• 17:17 – Newsom’s digital strategy
• 19:34 – Dan’s “vacuum” and AOC argument
• 20:49 – Dana Perino’s “unbecoming" remarks
• 22:34 – Sean: authenticity and style
• 24:07 – Mark: Newsom’s bravery and authenticity
• 26:21 – Dan: “Party has desperately wanted” this pushback
• 28:01 – Dan: AOC, base energy, volunteers
• 31:15 – Four bad stories for Democrats
• 36:27 – Sean: every state with party reg. shifting GOP
• 38:59 – Tracy’s Q: Congressional access, DC crime
• 47:26 – Croft’s Q: Newsom’s substance, lack of scrutiny
• 50:16 – Mark: Newsom = Kerry; “Tier 1” ≠ ideal
• 53:40 – Gary’s Q: never Trumpers, Carolyn Levitt
• 56:09 – Sean: New registered voters
• 57:25 – Dan: Dissident Dems leaving the party
• 58:45 – Gary: Latino perspectives in Florida

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Tone and Dynamics

• Spirited, fast-moving banter with a mix of inside-baseball and audience participation.
• Frequent self-deprecating humor, playful ribbing (“don’t judge AOC by the crowd size, Dan!”).
• Clear affinity for open, occasionally confrontational dialogue—a “meeting” in the literal sense.

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In Summary:

This episode of 2WAY’s Morning Meeting provides a state-of-the-race tour through both the chaos and strategies dominating the early 2028 presidential campaign, with a particular eye on the Democratic Party’s struggles, Gavin Newsom’s “tier 1” isolation, and core challenges around authenticity, voter enthusiasm, and party infrastructure.

• Mark, Sean, and Dan agree: Newsom is the lone Democrat with momentum, but faces questions about substance and authenticity.
• Voter registration shifts and a lack of consensus strategy are major warning signs for Democrats.
• Audience Q&A adds depth on constituent services, urban crime, and Hispanic voting trends.
• Key Theme: In an era where political style can eclipse policy substance, tribal engagement, and digital tactics are fast becoming the new determinants of “tier 1” status.

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For listeners seeking a forecast of the ’28 field, a diagnosis of voter sentiment, or a window into the “meeting before the news,” this episode is an essential, richly detailed companion for navigating the next months of campaign drama.

Transcript

[Mark]

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[Dan]

When Alyssa got a small water bottle.

[Mark]

Mike showed up with a 4 liter jug. When Mike started gardening, Alyssa started beekeeping.

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Oh, come on. They called a truce for their holiday.

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And used Expedia trip planner to collaborate on all the details of their trip. Once there, Mike still did more laps around the pool. Whatever. You were made to outdo your holidays. We were made to help organize the competition. Expedia made to travel.

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[Dan]

Down to the beach this morning to see it.

[Mark]

Good. Good morning weather to welcome to the Weather Channel. This is a morning meeting special edition. We'll just be covering. We've got a teams, our team, team coverage teams of reporters spread out all along the east coast to cover an impending storm live. We asked right before we went on the air what the three cable news networks would lead with. And I'm looking out of the corner of my eye. We'll tell you in just a minute. Anyway, Dan, Sean and I are happy to welcome you here to the morning meeting. If you're here on the two way platform, want to be in the conversation as many have already done, but more can. Please raise your hand if you'd like to be part of it. We'll get to your questions in a moment. And if you'd like to put stuff in the chat here or on x or on YouTube. Don't.

[Sean]

Don't do it.

[Mark]

Do not put smack in the chat. Think peace, love, understanding. Great song lyrics from Nick Lowe's popularized in the Elvis Costello version. Don't put smack in the chat. Don't do it. Peace, love and understand. Presumption of grace for all. All right, what is everybody leading with? CNN is leading with Russia, Ukraine, MSNBC leading with town halls of Republican town halls in disarray and. And Fox is leading with something to do with immigration.

[Dan]

Anyway, everyone's playing the norm and it.

[Mark]

Shows you that today is a bit of a Cats and dogs day in the news business. But we're gonna plow through as always. Again, we'll run through the day's news and then kick it around and then get to your questions. A few things first, though, what they call in the business some housekeeping. First of all, yesterday we asked you to like, subscribe, share, download the new Morning Meeting podcast available on Apple, Spotify, etc, and. And we urge you to get Dan past. Who do we get try to get you past yesterday, Dan? Candice Owens, Candace, Owen. And we wanted in the rearview mirror and Sean wanted to get past. What's her name? I can never remember that lady's name. What's her name? And so let's see how you all did. Let's see how the two way community did. Here are the Apple podcast ratings. Ooh. Morning meeting. Leapfrogging over Ben Shapiro, Charlie Kirk, Kara Swisher. And so the new targets today, everyone.

[Sean]

Mama, Papa, mi cuerpo crece a un ridmo. AlarmTech.

[Mark]

It's been so long. How have you been? Hello. I'm doing well, Dave. Why are you talking that way? Please say Juan for a compliment or two for a question. Yeah, this is weird. I think I'm gonna go.

[Tracy]

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[Mark]

And the boys from Midas Touch. We want to see the morning meeting right up, right out there with Megyn Kelly in the number five slot. So please, if you haven't yet, take this moment. Don't delay. Do it right now. Go to your phone.

[Sean]

IPad, Tablet operators are standing by.

[Mark]

Sidekick. Dan, did you ever have a Sidekick? Do you even know what that is?

[Dan]

Nope.

[Mark]

It was a handheld device early on. It was kind of like the early iPhone. Sidekick. I can't remember who made it. Anyway, whatever device you have, please go. Like subscribe, not Palm Pilot.

[Sean]

If you have a Palm Pilot, it's.

[Mark]

Not going to work. I have one of those. We want to. We want to be number five. That's the goal for today. To be in all the news podcasts and the Apple ratings number five. So please, if you haven't done that. And same with YouTube. We're about to. Our channel is about to go to 100,000. Be the 100,000.

[Dan]

You know what you Know, you know.

[Sean]

When you hit on. You know what you get when you get 100,000, right?

[Mark]

You get a plaque, a plaque.

[Sean]

Don't. It's a big deal.

[Mark]

Yeah, you get a plaque. I don't know, Dan, can you, can, can you eat a plaque?

[Sean]

Yeah.

[Dan]

Put enough whipped cream on it, sure.

[Mark]

You cannot eat a plank. Anyway, I will run through the daybook in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. But first, a message from our sponsors at Cozy Earth. Cozy Earth clothes. I've been wearing them all summer. They viscous, made from bamboo. Wick away, heat, moisture, fantastic. And we're emphasizing the pants today. And you've heard me before, the pants are incredible. The most comfortable pants I have. They look nice. I wore them to a, like a cocktail party the other day. I was the most comfortable person there. Everybody else, I'll say, they were a little sweaty. I was not. And there's two new pants options from the Cozy Earth folks now. They're the bamboo joggers. You can wear them anywhere. They're just, they're just. They look great. But again, this is from bamboo. They're extremely cool. They're soft, comfortable. And then there's the everywhere pant. I got to be honest with you. They're all great. Every. Every pair of pants from Cozy Earth is great. You get the sleepwear. Whatever you buy from them, you can rest assured it's high quality, very affordable. And you say, how affordable is it? Well, let's make it super affordable for you. 40% off for viewers of the morning meeting.

[Sean]

So wait, I got it. So based on your read yesterday, I went on cozyeart.com and I ordered the everyday one. I use cord morning 40 to get my 40% off. But you now tell me that I might have, should have done the jogger. I hope I bet right.

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[Sean]

I got to go back.

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I gotta go order now.

[Mark]

More affordable pants that are comfortable and look great. And again, I know it's gonna eventually be less hot than it is now, but you want them now. Sleep cooler, lounge lighter. Stay cozy. Cozy Earth. All right, here we go with the day book. And I gotta tell you, this whole stuff with Putin is very confusing to me. Very confusing what's going on. And today the President ain't doing much. Let's be honest. He's not doing anything in public. I'm just scrolling down here. He's swearing in the closed press as of now for the who is. Anybody know who the US Ambassador of the EU is?

[Dan]

Just looking that up.

[Sean]

No, it's Andy Puzder.

[Mark]

Oh, it is Andy poster. All right. Andy Pizer, who is accomplished business person and failed to get confirmed for a job in Trump one. Right. He was Labor Department and now he's got this. He'll be spending a lot of time with our friend Mr. Matt Whitaker because EU and NATO, they do a lot of crossover business anyway. Nothing else, no briefings. We'll see what happens. Same with the Vice President. Don't know what he's up to. There are a couple of NATO related meetings today. Today the chair of the Joint Chiefs is convening virtually his counterparts Germany, uk, France, Finland, Italy to talk about fleshing out something Putin has not formally agreed to, which is the deal. A pact that includes Western European NATO style security guarantees for Ukraine. And the NATO chiefs are talking as well. 11 o' clock Texas.

[Sean]

You know what that's called by the way?

[Mark]

Yeah, you know what that's called?

[Sean]

That meeting a chod Chad. Yeah, Chief of Defense.

[Mark]

I see what you're saying. Yes, chad meeting and 11 o' clock Texas. House of Representatives continues its redistricting efforts around a new map. All right, so let's talk about the two balls that are remain in Putin's court. If you listen to various Russian officials, Medved and Lavrov and the Kremlin spokesperson, unclear where they stand but they don't seem. They're not openly embracing either a meeting, a bilater trilat and they're not openly embracing the notion that they'd agree to having Western NATO style security guarantees. So Sean, where are you on those two things? Are either or both of those going to eventually be part of something that happens? Will there be a meeting? Will there be a deal that includes that? Where are you on both those?

[Sean]

No meeting, no deal.

[Mark]

No meeting, no deal.

[Dan]

Okay, Dan, I think there will be a meeting, but as I said yesterday, it will not be with the principals. It's going to be deputies. There'll be a principals meeting in October when the cold sets in and there will be a security guarantee.

[Mark]

But let me ask you guys this because I don't disagree with you in the abstract, but when Congress comes back, isn't the Senate going to put enormous pressure on the White House to say, well, if Putin hasn't gotten off the Schneide yet, let's do sanctions.

[Dan]

No, because I think what's going to happen is there's going to be meetings of deputies, there will be some pro. Putin's going to give just enough to keep Trump at the table in the game and he's going to balance this agitation of Trump. I want it, I want it. Here's a little more. We're a little closer. He's going to try to get as much land as he can because it sounds like they're about to break through and pick up another couple miles. And then when it gets too cold to fight in the winter, he'll cut a deal.

[Mark]

I don't think the Senate for that.

[Sean]

I don't think the Senate. Enormous, I was going to say enormous pressure. From where? From whom?

[Dan]

What do you mean enormous pressure?

[Sean]

No, I mean when Marx says there's going to be enormous pressure, I think.

[Mark]

I think, I think, I think that if Putin hasn't agreed to a bilateral or trilateral meeting by Labor Day, I think there's going to be every voice, not just the Senate, because I, I know the president's not going to just listen Senate, but I think the Europeans, I think Tom Friedman. No, I think lots of voices will be saying who the president respects to say we call on this. He's, he's not agreed to a meeting. You said, Mr. President, when you met with him in Alaska that he was open to NATO style security. You said, you've been saying, and Caroline's been saying he's open to a meeting. These will do a meeting. If he, if it's Labor Day in two weeks, he's not agreed to a meeting. I think the pressure will be overwhelming on the president to say, okay, we're going to have to put some pressure on.

[Sean]

But this is where again, I'll actually that why I said, what I said is partly because I believe that President Trump will do it on his own. I, I don't think he's going to need the Senate to do it. I think his patience has worn thin and he will do it unilaterally before.

[Mark]

After September 1.

[Sean]

After, look at the calendar, that's 11 days.

[Mark]

If it's, if it's after, he may be saying, and you may say, well, he did it on his own. But I'm telling you the pressure to do it is going to be overwhelming. So he'll be doing it in the aftermath of pressure. Even if he wants to claim, here's.

[Dan]

Why I would disagree a little. Congress is going to come back and that budget showdown is real. So I think if Congress had nothing on the agenda, I could see it, but their plate is pretty full. I just think all politics is local.

[Mark]

They can do, they can, they're going to do Epstein too. They can do a lot of stuff, but it's not just going to be Congress. It's going to be the Europeans.

[Dan]

But does he care what. And I'm serious, though, does he? As long as Fox News and everyone stays with him, I think he's fine.

[Mark]

All right, one more thing and then we're going to talk about Israel. Just a little confused because one or both of you suggested low level me, lower level meetings. I don't, I thought we all agreed yesterday the Ukrainians won't participate in that. What's that, John?

[Sean]

I don't.

[Dan]

No, I'm saying I, I said yesterday I think the deputies are going to meet Ukrainians.

[Mark]

Ukrainians will never agree to that. No way.

[Dan]

I mean, I just don't said so will they?

[Mark]

Huh? I don't think the president, I don't think the president will do that either.

[Dan]

He wants progress because he wants the deal now.

[Mark]

He's, he's on the, he's on the precipice within 10 days of being thoroughly called out, not by Tom Friedman, but by everybody with a brain that Putin is playing him. And we know he doesn't like that accusation and rightfully so. All right, either of you have anything to say about what's going on in Israel, Gaza? Lots going on. And, and it looks like what's we're headed towards is, is very aggressive efforts to take over Gaza City. To, to take over Gaza to find the hostages dead or alive. Either of you have any comments on what's going on with that?

[Dan]

Yeah, both, both parties, both Democrats and Republicans are about to get torn apart over this. There's no agreement in either party. Nobody supports this. Not nobody. Both parties have strong factions opposed to this.

[Sean]

I think the thing that's going to be interesting is we've been waiting for Netanyahu to go on a real offensive. And that to me is going to be the triggering moment where you sort of find out who's on which team for real. Like, because I think he, it feels emboldened. You want to talk about, you know, we talk about Russia and Ukraine. I think Netanyahu is looking for the perfect moment to go straight, you know, go full, full barrel here.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Sean]

So that to me is going to be that triggering moment when everybody has to Weigh in and say something and we'll find out where everyone really stands.

[Dan]

Yeah, but Mark, the one thing too I think we need to keep an eye on is if the US provides, let's say air support of some capacity in Ukraine. So we've got skin in the game, dollars in the game, some sort of personnel in the game. And Trump then comes back to the country in early 2026 and says and we're going to now have some skin in the game in Gaza because we got to help Israel reap. Wow, you're shaking your head.

[Mark]

It's not going to be military, Dan.

[Dan]

Well, it doesn't matter though. Maga's America first is we don't want.

[Mark]

They'Ll be, there'll be announcements of things we're getting. There'll be announcements of stuff the US Is selling to this, the Egyptians or whatever. It's not, it's gonna think you're gonna be cast as a net win, a net financial win for the United States. And you think that sells, sells well enough to do it? Okay, I think. All right, Gavin Newsom, incredible thing that's happening and, and we've talked about it here but really crystallized in the last 24 hours. Big thing in Politico playbook today, which is excellent. About how his team is being so aggressive on social media and this new poll, put the poll down. I want to get to that because I actually think that's bad news for Gavin Newsom in my view. But we'll talk about in a second. Patty Solis do all was on, on Next up with me and she agrees with me. As we've talked about here, there's a, there's now one person in tier one for 2028 and it's Gavin Newsom. Here's Patty Solis Doyle, number 110, please.

[Tracy]

Three months ago if you had asked me about Gavin Newsom, I said no, he's, he, he doesn't have what it takes. Yes, he's good looking people like good looking politicians but he doesn't really have what, what it takes to run, run against Trump because basically between now and this, you know, the next election, 2028, you're running against Trump whether you like it or not, you're going to run against Trump. Even though Trump is not going to be on the ballot in 2028 or so, we think he's going to run against his policies, he's going to run against his style. He's going to run against or she, sorry, he or she will run against. And Gavin Newsom has proven to really be able to do that thus far, and it's been in a very short period of time. I think Democrats right now. And I think the last time I was on this show, I said that we were leaderless and messageless and.

[Mark]

And a few people noticed.

[Tracy]

A few people noticed. But Gavin Newsom is sort of picking up that, you know, yeah, I'm gonna be there, I'm gonna take down the message, and I'm gonna have some ideas. And as you said, I think he's tier one right now.

[Mark]

So just to be clear, my position on Gavin Newsom, because I get bombarded about it all day, I think he'll. He's. He's trying to hire people now. He's clearly running currently. I just don't think in the end he'll. He'll be on the. At the gate when. When the voting starts. I think you will decide not to run. I may be wrong, but that's what I think. But. But I'm not.

[Sean]

So, wait, what's the trigger of running? Because that's common. Technically. Ran for president. She just didn't make it very far.

[Mark]

Well, no, lots of people look at. I. I don't think he will be competing in the early voting states. I think he will. He will act like a candidate for a year, but I think when we finally get to the early voting states, he will not be running. That's what I think, because of personal stuff. So if he's in first tier by himself. Interesting. Politico again talks about how the White House is reacting to Newsom unlike they react to anyone else. The official government of the United States is engaging in social media wars with Gavin Newsom, and his team is mocking the president daily in very creative ways. Here's this meme. This is based on an episode of Mad Men where the White House replied to Politico by saying, gavin Newsom says, I feel bad for you. And the president responds by saying, I don't think about you at all. He's in the Don Draper role. If you're not familiar with that clip, go to YouTube. Now, this poll that Politico did, 109. Their headline is, california Democrats like Gavin Newsom over Kamala Harris in 2028, folks, he's at like, 26%. It's within the margin of error. And the level of enthusiasm for them is very high. Now, you could say that's good for Newsom because he's ahead by a little bit, but that's not the way polling works. The fact that he's barely ahead of Kamala Harris. And the fact that there's not that much enthusiasm for him, even amongst California Democrats, is a countervailing data point to this notion that he's in Tier one by himself and he's now this, this runaway freight train that the other candidates are going to have to deal with. I will say one more thing, and then, Dan, want to hear from you. The, the, the. We said when he went to South Carolina that he was setting the standard for an early state trip. All the coverage, how skillful he was, et cetera. He's obviously now saying the standard for social media game, for, for, for getting the attention of the White House and for being fearless. Right. Like, every day he's out there like, like saying stuff that's, like, so out there regarding, like, one of the things he said was, I can't believe the country sat around and tolerated for the last 10 years Donald Trump's crazy social media posts. Like, I'm doing crazy media social media posts. Now he's saying to put in sharp relief how crazy all this has been. So Dan, is he. Is he is this formidable as it seems, or is he just filling a vacuum and his hold on Tier one will be ephemeral?

[Dan]

He's filling a vacuum. And I love Patty. Patty is my boss. I disagree with you guys a little bit. I think he's in Tier one, but I think AOC is with him in Tier one. And the reason I say this is what Gavin is getting all this momentum over is style. And it's real. The party loves it. People are jumping up and down. They're retweeting it. He's showing people a path, as you say, of fearless confrontation. What he lacks is substance of an agenda. Now, right now, he's focused on redistricting. That's the here and now. It's in front of him. XI has the substance in the base right now. So I think if she stepped forward and he stepped forward, she would probably be past him in early state primary voting within the party. Now, I think both of them have issues going forward, but Gavin Newsom, what he's doing, it's real. I said the other day, I'm surprised more people have not done what he's doing in terms of the mocking. He's getting under people's skin. It is comical to watch Republicans and people on Fox News say this is unbecoming.

[Mark]

All right, well, let's. Let's watch my friend Dana farino say that. 111 chair. 111.

[Tracy]

The thing is, or at the debate. The other thing for me is that for the last week, Gavin Newsom and why am I giving him advice? You have to stop it with the Twitter thing. I don't know where his wife is. If I were his wife, I would say, what. You are making a fool of yourself. Stop it. Do not, do not let your staff tweet. And if you're doing it yourself, put.

[Mark]

The phone away and start over.

[Tracy]

And if you. He's got a big job as governor of California, but if he wants an even bigger job, he has to be a little bit more serious.

[Mark]

Sean, I love, I love Dana, but I agree with Dan. To say that about Gavin Newsom and not say it about Donald Trump seems off key.

[Dan]

Or J.D. vance, who started in on the same thing now.

[Sean]

Yeah, yeah. And I wouldn't like, I don't, I don't speak for anyone but myself anymore, so. Especially Dana.

[Mark]

But he spoke for the US Military.

[Dan]

And I, and I love Dana.

[Sean]

Very rarely. And so. But, but I would say, I actually think if you add. Asked her, she doesn't find it probably becoming of Trump either. I mean, if you know Dana well, she, I mean, she is a very dignified person that treats, I mean, like. I don't. I think she was coming on Gavin. Then if you had asked her specifically about Trump, I think she probably would have said the same thing.

[Mark]

You're right. So let me frame it a different way, because this is a reality. We just, we have to be real about this. There are things that Donald Trump can get away with, just as there were things that Bill Clinton could get away with that other people can't. And you can say that's unfair. And you can say, I can't explain why, but you have to accept it as true. Donald Trump benefited from behaving this way. The question is, I think on the table, and Dana's saying, in effect, Newsom will not benefit from this, that this will be bad for him long.

[Sean]

The other point about this is that it's not just Trump's past. It's. It's the authenticity, authenticity factor. Again, this, that is Trump. He's been a New York, you know, a New Yorker that speaks the way he does for his whole life. Go back and look. I mean, so the point that I think that Dana was probably trying to get to, and again, I'm not speaking for, but that I agree, is this isn't Gavin Newsom's not known. Like, if Rob Emanuel said a bunch of that stuff, I'd buy it, because Rob, Tom's. Of you know, that's on brand for Rob. The point is Gavin's not doing it because that's what Gavin really thinks. That's Gavin trying to emulate Trump. And that's the same thing that happens where a lot of these folks think that, oh, I can do it too. If that's not you, you can't. This is an authenticity issue more than anything.

[Mark]

I disagree, I disagree. I disagree. Go ahead, Dan. You go.

[Dan]

I disagree a little in that I agree with you. Trump's an authentic brawler and he can get away with that. But Newsom is not doing it. His staff is. And the Trump Republican machine has gotten into this the last 10 years. The snark, the non stop, mean making, attacking, belittling, hitting Newsom is showing the party exactly what, and what I would say to Democrats is, can you envision Chuck Schumer or the House, you know, Kathleen Clark, Hakeem Jeffries doing this? This is why the base pulls their hair out, because Schumer puts a press release out or a tweet. That is a press release, Literally a photo of a press release. This is what the party wants more of.

[Mark]

Yeah, I don't want to make this about me, but I'm making about me for a minute. There's a paradox with my view of Gavin Newsom. I'm a bigger believer in his abilities than most people I know are. Democrats, Republicans, the press, I'm a big believer. But, but I also don't think he's going to run in the end. But, but here's the thing you think about when you think about, is this, Sean, is this on brand for him? Is this authentic? When Nancy Pelosi and the Obamas and the Clintons pretended to be against gay marriage, even though they were all for it, same sex marriage, Gavin Newsom had the courage to come out publicly for it. And I'm telling you, he is, he is a gutsy, brave, clever believer in being first places and not being afraid of being first places. And, and if you look at what he did on same sex marriage, you can apply it to this situation. Right now, he is aggressively saying what he said privately forever. This Trump thing is crap. As governor of California, he's reliant on the federal government after fires and everything else. So he's had to play that game. And he has a good relationship with the president. And if you ask the president about Gavin Newsom, despite Newscom and all of his, you know, mocking and what his press operations doing now with my tax dollars to fight him, the president gets this About Gavin Newsom. He has more respect for Gavin Newsom than most Republicans do because he's seen it in private. He is underrated as a tough person, Dan.

[Sean]

So I still don't understand that. That's not anything. I don't disagree that he's a fighter.

[Mark]

What he's. This is authentic because it's a. Because he. Because they. They've gotten some success. They've gotten the White House to respond like 50 times. And this. And what Gavin Newsom is. Says is this is working, is getting under their skin. It's. It's showing the. It's elevating my chances of running for president successfully. It's giving the party a template for what to do. And it's breaking the spell to say we have to be so afraid of Donald Trump because he's so formidable on social media. No, we can be just as formidable and go right at him. And this is authentic. Gavin Newsom is not a light fraidy cat pretty boy. He is a tough street fighter. And this is pure authenticity. Now, is this is pure brand of humor? No, but it's a tactic. The tactic is working. And the tactic is authentic to him 100%.

[Dan]

And the fact that he got Steven Chung to respond and then mocked Stephen Chung.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Dan]

Like, this is what the party has desperately wanted. A Fox News host attacks. They mock the Fox News. I love Dana Perino. I agree with you, Sean. She's a bush dignified person. But the party is tired of the whole fog machine just kicking it, you know, like a ugly stepchild. And they're fighting back again. AOC is another one. So I put her also in the top tier.

[Mark]

And I'm, and I'm telling you, even Rom who I see in the chat, people are like, oh, Rom so tough. If you said to, if you said to everyone who's thinking of running in 28 besides Gavin Newsom, we got to do this, too. We. We need the apparatus and the humor and the, and the, and the number of followers that Gavin Newsom has. We need to be in this game. I'm telling you, not one of them could do it at this level. Not one of them. And that's why.

[Dan]

And Mark, I would say, too, if you look hard enough now, you see the glimmers of a future strategy. Mandani's ability to create, to have substance on real lives of real people. Put out with clothes, clever content that's relentlessly focused with Newsom style, of the kind of mocking attack. And you put both together. That is the future of a Nimble campaign.

[Mark]

Yeah. Okay, one more thing related to something you said and then we're going to run through four stories that are bad for Democrats. We'll do them pretty quick and you guys can just say how bad. Come on.

[Dan]

It's been a fun segment.

[Mark]

Okay. I, I, I, I totally, I think I get why AOC is, is potentially formidable if she runs. But I have her in tier three. I don't think she's anywhere near tier one. Dan, can I convince you to move her to tier 2?

[Dan]

If we said today, Mark, today, if we, if, if everyone we've talked about says I'm running and we just went out and said going to show up in Iowa. Yeah, she gets the biggest crowds and I think she starts at the top. So in that regard. No, no, not that she ends there, but.

[Mark]

Well, what's the, what's the tough, toughest question you've ever heard a reporter ask aoc?

[Dan]

I, Mark, you're, you're talking about will they still be there two months from now who start it? But let me ask you if, if the, if the gun sounded in those four states, Nevada, South.

[Mark]

I'm not, but I can't, I can't pretend the primaries are tomorrow. Dan, I have to say, what's going to happen between today.

[Sean]

Sean, Sean, I'm just, I'm really, I'm really taking that. Dan is so obsessed with crowd size. It's just, it's, yeah, it's sad. It's sad. It is SA.

[Mark]

Dan, if you stake your career on bragging about crowd size, it never ends well.

[Sean]

It's, yeah, I'm just giving you some friendly advice, Dan. Dad, don't judge AOC by the Sean.

[Mark]

Tier. Tier. Solid. Tier three. Right.

[Sean]

I, I, I might, I might split the middle and say like two closer to three, but considering the field.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Sean]

Like if this was any other year, I would say definitely tier three. And, and I agree with, I mean, Dan, the question that I have in my mind is AOC is a one man band. She is a, she is a machine. And I give her a lot of crap, just to be clear. Like, I think she's a powerhouse. Right. Whether you like her or not, you have to respect what she does on social media. The she, she is truly authentic. I, I disagree with everything she stands for, but I will say that she understands how to communicate to people. She will mix it up. Right, but then the question is how do you take it to the next level? Yeah, you can get crowds at the state fair in Iowa, but how do you register people how do you knock on the door? How do you get caucus commitments? And that's where I don't see her having the infrastructure yet, which is what gets you. Moves you up and down the ladder.

[Dan]

Who would have the most volunteers two months from now in Iowa?

[Mark]

The most volunteers in Iowa.

[Dan]

AOC would start off with an army. She would. It'd be the Sanders Army.

[Mark]

She. She. The Howard Dean Army.

[Dan]

Does the base trust Gavin Newsom?

[Mark]

To be determined.

[Sean]

See, I will tell you this. Thank you.

[Dan]

The base trust, aoc. This is in the first tier.

[Mark]

Wait. Wait till the first tough interview, Dan. The base electability.

[Sean]

She's gonna have to go on MSNBC at some point.

[Mark]

Exactly.

[Sean]

Gonna have to face Rachel. Maddie. All right, hold on. The one point that I want to make is this is. What Dan's touching on is important. There's a big difference in. In both parties. But since we're talking about the Democratic Party, of who the base is excited about, who will vote, who will go out in caucus, put up a yard sign, and who the DC Beltway media is obsessed with. And I think that that is the divide in the Democratic party right now.

[Mark]

100. All right, again, if you've never been on the program before and you're here and you'd like to participate, please raise your hand. We'd love to get some new folks in today. We won't demand three, but if you've never raised your hand, please do. All right, I'm going to run through four stories that are in the news today that I think are really bad for Democrats. I'm not here to dump on the Democrats, but there's no one in the Democratic Party.

[Sean]

I'll do it for you.

[Mark]

There's no one in the Democratic Party dealing with these four problems. And I'm telling you like the clock's ticking. All right, so first, number one is a New York Times story. Very good job. Two years too late, but this is number 105. The New York Times went and looked at, not every state has voter registration by party, but they looked at every state that has voter registration by party. And in literally every one, it's a crisis for the Democrats. The Republican registration's going up, Democrats going down. There's some party switchers. There's some people moving from into the state and registering for the first time. Headline, the Democratic Party faces a voter registration crisis. That headline understates the case. If you're concerned about your party, if you're a Democrat, read the piece. It is frightening. And there's nothing in there that says how they're going to solve it. What it says is there's all these rich people and these outside groups with lots of donors trying to figure out who the money should go to. There's no Democratic Party plan to deal with this. That's story one. Story two, Wall Street Journal reports least surprising story ever. Elon Musk is leaning away from starting a third party. Wrong headline there, guys. This is. We want. Where is this number 106.

[Dan]

That's the next bad news.

[Mark]

Yeah, 106. It says that Musk is not really doing anything to start a third party and that he's leaning towards Vance. I'm telling you right now, the biggest story of 2028. Patty disagrees with me about whether there'll be other candidates, but Vance is going to have $2 billion on this trajectory. Headline from the Journal, Elon Musk pledged to start a political party. He's already pumping the brakes. The billionaire has sought to maintain ties with J.D. vance, the potential heir to Trump's MAGA political environment. I'm not predicting this will happen, but on the current trajectory, Trump will endorse Vance. He'll have no real opposition. You'll have $2 billion raised before the Democrats start their primaries and caucuses. And the Democratic Party is doing nothing to stop this. I'm not sure what they could do, but they're doing nothing. Then go now to that LA Times, the New York Times headline. A bunch of prominent California Democrats, including Casey Wasserman, who was one of the biggest financial supporters of Hillary Clinton and of Joe Biden are holding a fundraiser Susan Collins to get Hollywood treatment at fundraising fundraiser featuring Democrats. Democrats hoping to retake the Senate in the midterm elections next year are targeting the seat of Susan Collins, who is seen as a moderate. And then lastly in AP story not breaking any huge news, but this is the most political White House of all time, at least in my career. AP Trump moves to use the levers of presidential power to help his party in the 2026 midterms. Some of the things the AP sites would be considered standard hardball, some more than that. But the point is again, using the White House. James Blair wakes up every day saying, what are the 50 things I need to do today to keep the House? Make sure we don't lose the Senate to position the president to raise all this money to help Vance. This is a machine and the DNC and its allies are not a machine. So, Dan, I want to ask you to talk about which of those four strike you, but I want to start With. Do you think Chuck Schumer read that about that in the New York Times? But it's got to be crushing to him that some of major party donors helping Susan Collins, right?

[Dan]

Yeah, I think Casey Wasserman, I suspect is that's a more transactional thing. He needs Trump for the Olympics very much to clean up L. A after the fires. So I'm guessing, I'm guessing I have no inside knowledge that that may be tied. Sherry Lansing, I had to read that twice. I raised money from her in years past. She is one of the kind of grand dames of the LA fundraising scene. That to me was like, whoa.

[Mark]

But to me, amongst other things, it is a, it is an indication that they're not afraid of Chuck Schumer because if a Republican tried to do that and adverse to, say, Mitch McConnell, they'd be terrified that they would be.

[Dan]

That goes to your. The fourth item, and this is like back to reality for Democrats. Here is. It is the most political White House ever. It is the most intimidating White House in my lifetime where people are afraid of being investigated, people are afraid of business deals being tanked. People are afraid on many levels. And the White House is not shy about it and goes a step further, which is to say not just you won't help the opposition, but you will help us if you want to, you know, kind of continue to do business. So it's out in the open. You can say that. I think to me, the biggest story there is the voter registration issue. You could see it in 2023. It accelerated throughout 2024. We saw it in early vote numbers where the Democrats tried to poo poo it and say, no, there's nothing to see here. But obviously it was, you know, the canary in the coal mine. And it has not stopped. Usually by now the new president begins to lose a little steam because the reality of governing and disappointing people, you know, kind of begins to take hold and you start to lose some, some energy. Those numbers are accelerating towards Trump or the gop. So that to me, I mean, the story says four and a half million people have switched. That is huge.

[Sean]

If you, if so, if you look, there's a guy named Seth Keshel, he's been on my show a bunch of times, who literally lives and breathes voter reg. 29 states do voter registration by party. Every single one of them has moved. Everyone, every one of the 29 that does voter registration by party has moved in the direction of the Republican Party. That's either losing seats for the losing ground for Dems or Republicans pick me up. So that's the beautiful thing. It's literally. And so you look at the rest of the country and you've got to assume Virginia, we don't have party id, but there's, there's a bunch of things that you have to say to yourself. If you're the Dems and you're losing in every single state, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, that's a big problem for you. And I think, again, it goes back to what is the DNC and the outside affiliated groups going? By the way, one last little point on that New York Times headline that I got a kick out of. It's amazing how Susan Collins, of all people, I problem when reporters decide who's conservative, liberal or moderate, like, but they do it all the time. And if you pull that headline back up, it says Collins, who is seen by some as a moderate. It's like they literally can't even. I mean, there is no question that Susan Collins is a moderate. I, I have no problem with that label. Most members, you know, debate their own label. But the idea that these guys in the New York Times can't even come to that to say who, you know, a main moderate, that's. I don't think Democrats would have a problem with that. But it's the New York Times, and so they can't get themselves to even admit that.

[Mark]

Right. Great point. All right, we're going to go to work, drop a couple of topics because there's so many hands up, including some new folks. So we'll get to your questions. As always, we'll ask you to unmute, tell us where you are when you subscribe to the podcast and what's on your mind. And always with peace, love and understanding. I'll just say the White House also, we're not going to show you, but they're on TikTok now. And again, it's another area. They're just super aggressive. And, you know, it's the Democrats. We were talking on this platform about the voter registration crisis during the campaign, and we said part of why we think Kamala Harris is in more trouble than most people think is because the voter registration numbers. So kudos to the New York Times for writing the story in August of 2025, but they should have written the story a year ago when it was, it was very germane and just people just put their head in the sands about it. Tracy, welcome and thank you for being part of two Way. Please unmute, tell folks where you are, what's on your mind for Sean and Dan, good morning.

[Tracy]

My name is Tracy. I'm from suburbs of Buffalo, New York. So my question is, I have a couple of them. I'll try to be quick. First is for Dan. My House representative is of the Democrat Party. I cannot get him to respond to me at all, ever, despite phone calls, multiple phone calls. And I'll be in D.C. in a couple of weeks. And I'm curious, how do I approach, Is it because I'm registered as a Republican that he doesn't reply to me? That's My first question. Second is DC crime. My 24 year old daughter lives in DC which is why I'll be visiting in a few weeks. And the D.C. crime has been. I'm nervous as a mother obviously about her safety in D.C. i have her call me when she's walking to Union Station. But just, I don't understand how the national media is downplaying the level of crime in dc. It makes no sense to me. I see it all the time when I'm there. So that frustrates me and I guess I'll just leave it there.

[Mark]

All right, Tracy, two great questions and I, and I'm confident I'm speaking for my colleagues when I say all of us gasped when we heard you say you has your daughter call you because all of us know how you feel while you're waiting for that call. So thank you for that sharing that. Dan, why don't you take them both first and then Sean?

[Dan]

Sure. I, I don't know who your member specifically is, but I would be stunned if the reason they're not responding is that you're a Republican. Because most members of Congress, 90% of what their staff does is constituent service. And so whether it's helping somebody who needs a passport because they're about to go overseas and they've lost it, or Social Security check is missing, have. So I would call the, the front desk in Washington D.C. i would give them your name and say that you would like to come. I assume you want to come in to discuss an issue.

[Tracy]

Yes.

[Dan]

Okay. They will have a staffer who is assigned to that issue and just say, I would like to meet with that staffer. Usually a member of Congress will take care of a constituent. It is very rare that a member of Congress would say, no, we don't want to meet with you because that's how you lose votes.

[Tracy]

Yeah, I'm, I'm trying to give him some grace because he is a relative. It's Tim Kennedy and I think he's relatively new to his role. So I'm assuming. But at the same time, I kind of get cynical because I'm like, what the heck?

[Dan]

Yeah, no. So I can. Yes. And in fact, I'll DM you after this and give you my email and I can talk to you more if you need it. And then on the second part, yeah, you're right, it's ridiculous. I don't know why. Well, I think the reason journalists don't talk more about the crime at this point now in D.C. is because they hate Trump so much that it's just like, gosh darn it. I don't want to kind of give any credence to what he's doing and how aggressively he's doing it. But anyone who tries to say, well, there's, you know, crime is down slightly and there's always been crime in D.C. is, that's ridiculous.

[Sean]

Sean, I'll take them. Well, I'll start with your constituent issue. I agree with Dan wholeheartedly. Like, I've worked in 10 different member offices at some point like that. They. I've never. I never was part of an office that asked someone's voter registration. Like, if you said, oh, I live at 123 Main street, you'd just be welcomed in. And I agree with Dan's tactic. Like, I would call ahead and say, hey, I'm going to be there. Could I meet with someone to talk about the issue? I mean, can I. Have you told them what issue it is? Is that. I mean, is that part of the problem or.

[Tracy]

No, I really have. I've tried to do the email thing, you know that. Because they all have their sites. I've sent emails, never heard anything back. I just left it. I have an issue I'd like to discuss. I didn't go into detail. I've made. When I've made the phone calls, same thing. I have an issue I'd like to discuss. I did. Maybe being more detailed would be more fruitful.

[Sean]

Yeah, you're going to need to tell.

[Dan]

Them so that they can assign a staffer and they can be prepared and look up what it is you want to discuss.

[Sean]

Okay, Yeah, I. I totally agree. And I would just say this. Two things. One, you know, call them, hey, I'm going to be in town. I don't know what day Mondays and Fridays are actually on the Hill. Generally a lot easier. The member probably won't be there, but the staff then doesn't have. I mean, it's usually a lighter staff day, which would help you. But again, to Dan's point, I would Call and say that. And if you don't get a response, then just stop by. When you walk in the office, you know, you tell the person at the front desk, hey, I'm from this. Then. Then. And can I talk to somebody? Or there. Again, it's just how it's part of doing business. No one should care about voter. Your voter registration. In fact, they're not supposed to even ask or know it. You're supposed to know whether you live in the boundaries. On the D.C. crime thing, the thing that I find the most fascinating about this story is from my perspective, for the last eight years, we've had a discussion about facts and misinformation. And here we are in D.C. where there is a. A, not just a case, but it is documented that a police commander was told to cook the books. They've charged him. I mean, it's like a real. Okay. And so we know for a fact that that's happening. Okay. We also know that the D.C. city Council decriminalized a lot of things. We also know that police are being told at the scene to actually downgrade crimes. And yet the media tries to then fall back on those same crime stats as the basis for their view, which I just. The same people will then talk about Donald Trump getting rid of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and that's going to hurt us. And yet when it comes to crime, they're okay with it. It's just the obsession with Trump derangement syndrome of fighting for a narrative. I just. To me, this is the perfect example of how hypocritical these guys are, that we know that the books are being cooked, we know that there's a real issue here. And yet they want you to. And to your point, like, it doesn't take some huge Harvard study, it takes a mere walk down any street in D.C. to realize it's not safe.

[Mark]

Yeah. Tracy, thank you for both two great questions and grateful to you for being part of two Way. And just. Just confirming you've subscribed to the podcast.

[Tracy]

Yes, of course.

[Mark]

Thank you, Tracy.

[Dan]

I put my email in the chat, so just you can. If you have any questions, send me an email.

[Mark]

Okay, Tracy, thank you. Grateful to you. Croft, welcome in. Tell folks who don't know where you are what's on your mind.

[Dan]

For Sean, don't send smack to my email people.

[Mark]

No smack to Dan's email. No, no, there's nothing there. That was from me and Sean.

[Sean]

Yeah, I'm gonna put Dan's email in this chat, too. Just so you know, if you have any problems?

[Dan]

Not the YouTube chat.

[Mark]

Croft, is that a green Burger King crown in front of you? What is that?

[Dan]

It's a Felix shirt.

[Mark]

Okay. Okay. That's on your shirt. I thought that was 3D. A bad, bad vision. Croft, welcome in. Thanks for being part of Two Way. Where are you today?

[Dan]

I'm in Calgary, Alberta.

[Mark]

Welcome in. Thanks for being.

[Dan]

Yeah, Nifty first found you on Smerconish office Mercanish originally.

[Mark]

I'll be on Smerconish in 15 minutes, by the way.

[Sean]

Yeah, there you go.

[Dan]

Yeah, I try to make sure I listen to that.

[Mark]

You're.

[Dan]

You level out McConsh a little bit. He seems to be that thing about stuck in the middle. He seems to be drifting off to.

[Mark]

The left, dead center.

[Dan]

I'm not so sure.

[Sean]

Anyway, on.

[Dan]

I'm just curious about maybe in particular for Dan to deal with this about Gavin Newsom. And I don't understand how there doesn't seem to be any push back on his merits as an administrator, whether it's forest management or water management or the price of gas in California or. I was listening to Victor Davis Hansen the other day and he said 13 million people have moved out of California, 300 corporations have moved out of California.

[Sean]

The tax rate there, homelessness, all the.

[Dan]

Stuff that's going on there. And yet he puts up a mean tweet trying to compete with Trump on mean tweets. And he's a tier one candidate, but nobody seems to be going, can the guy run a, you know, a gas station?

[Mark]

Yeah, cropped. Incredible question. Well framed, Dan.

[Dan]

Yeah, cropped. I agree with you. Which is why I said in my opinion, Newsom is tier one on style, but AOC on substance, again within the Democratic Party, not like, where does Dan Turantine go? Yeah, I wonder about that. Yeah, I think that for Newsom. Look, when Mark, if you haven't watched Mark's interview with Gavin, now, I don't know what Mark, three months ago, ago, two months ago, Newsom addresses some of these substance issues about business openings and people moving in or out of the state. He is going to have to address this. You know, JB Pritzker is going to have to address the fact that Illinois may not necessarily be the model to a lot of people that they would want for the country. He's going to have to do it with California. Conversely, Shapiro and Whitmer are going to say, look at what we've done in our states, look at our popularity in our states. And those guys are not very good. So that's Newsom's Achilles until he addresses it. And he, he has no forward looking agenda right now. Like, and I'm not criticizing him, nobody does. And I'm not sure if four years out I'd be like, here are my policy papers. But he's, they're all going to have to put. What would I do for you?

[Sean]

Well, I think that, to me, that support.

[Dan]

I'm sorry, pardon me. Go ahead.

[Sean]

Yeah, no, I think you're. Croft, you're absolutely right. I think this is the fascinating dynamic that's happening in politics right now, where most of our analysis is on style, crowds, you know, authenticity, not followers. Right? I mean, that's, you know, you look at even the Politico story and playbook today about Newsom, right? It's how many followers do you have? Who's running the account, the infrastructure, not the accomplishments. I actually, I've been fascinated by this. Again, you don't have to agree with the, the accomplishments, but I've been making this point and asking pollsters to come on my show about this. If whether or not you agree with President Trump or not aside, you can't, you have to acknowledge how much he's gotten done in the first 200 days on a variety of things. And if you're a MAGA supporter, you have to be extremely excited, right? And yet it doesn't reflect it. And I, I just am fascinated by the fact that like, we've, we're almost judging politicians these days by the style part of the job as opposed to the substance part of the job. And I find that to be just a fascinating thing. And this goes to the heart of your question, Croft, because I look at Gavin Newsom and go, how does, how do people think he's Tier one, considering the disasters and the management of them, et cetera.

[Mark]

So let me address this because Croft raised it. I see it all over Twitter, people watching the show and live tweeting. I see it in the chat, okay, if we were having the morning meeting in 2001 and I came on, I said, John Kerry, tier one candidate, you all would be saying, are you kidding? John Kerry, Boston Brahman. John Kerry once asked one of his advisors, why aren't we running on my accomplishments in the Senate? And his advisor said, sir, you have no accomplishments in the Senate. Like, you would say, that's a joke. We're not here predicting Gavin Newsom is going to be president. We're saying in the fight for the nomination, he's tier one. John Kerry was Tier one. There are no perfect candidates. You get a Bill Clinton or George W. Bush or, or Donald Trump for the clear. Clear seeing in 2015. And you say, well, yeah, they've got flaws. Everybody has flaws. But, but they're the strongest. You know, they're the, they're the best second grade soccer player on a second grade team. Right. This cycle, there's no Democratic front runner. If Gavin Newsom were running against Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, would we be saying Gavin Newsom was strong? No. But for those of you who say, why is the morning meeting spending so much time talking about this? It's because something significant happened. He's in tier one by himself. And you can, you can spend two hours talking about his flaws, but I'm telling you, he is in tier one by himself because this is a weak field. And for all of his flaws, he's got something going on. He's the governor of California. He's, he's got social media game, he's got a huge mailing list. He's a great communicator. As I told you before, he's a brave fighter. He's underestimated as a political warrior. And that puts him head and shoulders above these other people who are weak and have flaws of their own and aren't in the arena the way he is.

[Dan]

Agreed.

[Sean]

Yeah, I think that's, Yeah, I think there's two separate questions. Croft. Right. You're right on the accomplishments. And as I said, I find this fascinating around the board. But to Mark's point, I mean, look, Gavin Newsom's doing stuff. All of these other people who we talk about as potential candidates the last week, largely silent. Newsom's traveling, he's going to states, he's commenting on everything, he's mixing it up. And I get it. If I were a Democrat and be like, wow, this guy's out there getting in the ring, I like that.

[Dan]

And crazy. No one talked about Trump as the Tier one.

[Mark]

Yeah, exactly. Exactly.

[Dan]

Right. And then two, when, when he got in, what did people go somewhat bonkers in the base over? He was fighting, he was mocking Jeb Bush, he was going at people.

[Mark]

But, but Croft, if we were doing the morning meeting in 20, 2013, and I said, well, how about Donald Trump, tier one candidate? You'd say, well, bankruptcies, divorces, you know, flip flopped on these 17 positions, no record of governance, you'd say, well, of course Donald Trump is not a tier one candidate. And I'd say, well, he's got some upsides too. Let's talk about that. So I really think you people who are Being negative about our conversation about Gavin Newsom and negative about Gavin Newsom are not putting it respectfully. You're not putting in the right perspective of history and again, of how weak this field is. Thank you.

[Dan]

If I recall, the number one top tier candidate in 13 was one Jeb Bush. Most people saw him as like, formidable.

[Mark]

Formidable. Yeah. Gary, welcome in. Tell folks who don't know where you are what's on your mind.

[Gary]

Hi, I'm, I'm in Miami here working from my home office and, you know, find the conversation fascinating. Got a couple of just, again, just within the topics of what you guys are discussing overall, just big picture and seeing the demographics sort of on the voting registration. You know, me personally, I live in Florida, so I typically switch registrations depending on who I don't want to see, you know, on the other side, sort of just my contribution there. But also, what do you guys think about a lot of. And again, you guys know this better than I do in terms of whether or not it's a relevant percentage of Republicans that went away from Trump, kind of like the never Trumpers that switched and voted, you know, more on the Democratic side in the last few elections. Are these numbers that you guys are seeing in terms of the voting registration, do you think that that's accounted for or if it's not accounted for, what are your thoughts on that wave, sort of going back home to the party after Trump doesn't come back in? That's my first question. And my second question is, aside from what anybody's view is on things, I've been very impressed with Carol and Levitt and the way she commands the podium, obviously. Sean, you did a great job too, I think. But, you know, she's just her, her command of the narrative, the way she handles the press. I mean, I've never seen anything like this. And what your, what are your thoughts in terms of her future, you know, with it within the party and being able to run? Because, I mean, if, if I was on a debate stage against her, I'd be terrified that just, that's sort of just my opinion. So I'll leave you with those two points.

[Mark]

Thanks, Sean. Why don't you take both those for starters?

[Sean]

I'll just start with Caroline. I think she's got a huge and bright future. She's done a fantastic job and managed all of the aspects of the job really well. Again, whether you agree with her political positions, I think as a practitioner, a professional practitioner, she's done a fantastic job and she's really balanced the needs of what the President wants with getting information out from the press. So her future is bright. She has said in the past when I've asked her whether she would run, she says no. But, you know, life changes. There's a lot of things that I've done that I didn't think I'd ever have the opportunity to do or would do or so still do what she wants to do. She'll have plenty of opportunities. And I'm sorry, remind me of the first one again.

[Mark]

Voter registration is a voter registration.

[Sean]

Yeah, I think that's, it's just to me it's, there's so if you go through the 29 states and like I said, Seth Cashel, he has, he writes a substack column called Captain K's Corner and he really spends a ton of time detailing each state and why and they're not all the same. Some have lost Democrats, some have picked up Republicans net. It's all beneficial to Republicans, but there's a little bit of reason for it. And I think the other point to your question though is first time registered voter is actually has a high propensity to vote because they've taken a step. The question is, do they vote again after that? And I think a lot of people we've seen this during Trump won will come out for Donald Trump and no one else. And so that's going to be the million dollar question. How do you keep that going?

[Dan]

I agree with Sean. I think some of it may be never Trumpers. I would not be surprised if some of it's like the Bernie wing of the Democratic Party that continues to leave the party. You know, black, young black men, Latinos. Although there's some data that Latinos are beginning to sour on Trump, which is an interesting thing to kind of keep an eye on. And what was your second question? Oh, she's amazing. She's unbelievable.

[Mark]

Yeah. Gary. Gary, I think the problem for, for elective office is New Hampshire is, is more moderate than she is. And so she'd have to have the right circumstances to be able to run.

[Sean]

Although I will say, Mark, I, I've now, I, I believe she has dual, I mean not dual residency, but as a home in Florida.

[Mark]

Yeah. She could, she could find a lot of states that'd be more hospitable to her brand.

[Gary]

Yeah.

[Mark]

Than New Hampshire.

[Gary]

Yeah. But I mean also that being the demographic issue with suburban women, I mean, I would imagine that, that she can get some carryover on that.

[Mark]

Maybe, maybe just.

[Gary]

Yeah.

[Mark]

Good.

[Gary]

And in terms of Hispanics, Latino, I mean, I'M Cuban background. Most of my friends are Colombian or Venezuelan. Since, you know, I grew up in the 90s here, you know, there's certainly, I don't see a change there from this part of the Latino community. Now, whether, again, the Latino community is very diverse. You know, you have, you know, more Mexican on the west coast, more Central American, maybe that's, but right here, I mean, I, again, I drive around the areas. The Venezuelans are still here, especially when you see, you know, what's going on with Maduro. If they take out Maduro in any way, I mean, that's going to eliminate any sort of change from the, especially from the South American side. That's just my view on it. And again, just by anecdotal.

[Mark]

But yeah, Gary, that's complicated stuff. Thank you for explaining clearly.

[Sean]

Gary, can you play that? Do you play the guitars?

[Gary]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's, it's my, I've been doing it for 30 years.

[Mark]

So, yeah, nice stuff. Gary, before you go, you're an empathetic guy, I can tell. How upsetting would you say it must be for Dan to be behind Tucker Carlson on the Apple podcast ratings?

[Gary]

Very upsetting. But don't worry about it. I, I signed up for it. So we're, you know, you got, you got my, my check there.

[Mark]

Thank you, Gary. All right, a few things before we go. First of all, the Wall Street Journal has alerted that President Trump is calling for the Cook Fed chair, Cook Fed Governor Cook, to resign after she's been accused of mortgage fraud. We'll see where that goes. Full details on two way tonight this evening. Sean, what do you have on tonight?

[Sean]

A lot, actually. We've got from the White House briefing, new media seat to the Sean Spicer show tonight at 6. Jack Pacific's going to join us to break down a lot with him. And then a gentleman by the name of Brian Dean Wright, former CIA officer. Last night, Tulsa Gabbard announced 37 CIA officials where our former intel officials were having their, their clearance scrapped. We'll break it down with him as well as what's going on in the intel community. So a lot of, lot of good stuff.

[Mark]

Jack is back. Give him my best funny man.

[Sean]

I will.

[Mark]

Jack. Dan, you got anything you want to tell us about?

[Dan]

The three of us will be on with our friend.

[Sean]

Oh yeah.

[Mark]

Today at 12:12 on Sirius and then later on YouTube. We'll be on for like an hour and a half with Megan.

[Dan]

Yes. And then I may subject to change like last night changed beyond with Leland vitter tonight at 9.

[Mark]

Pm and again, I'll be on with with with Michael Smerconish, a dead center in about five minutes. And uh, you can also see me at 6:00 clock here on two way. Tonight, uh, we'll have full coverage of, uh, everything. Uh, Bridget is back. Bridget Fantasy is back with Real America. She's gonna talk about education. Please join Bridget. Here's a preview.

[Sean]

We're back from vacation and it's back to school. And it got me thinking about the.

[Tracy]

State of our education system in this country.

[Sean]

And I'm curious how you feel about it, America.

[Tracy]

Is our education system failing us?

[Sean]

Does it need an overhaul? How do you feel about your education? If you have kids, how do you feel about theirs? Is math really real racist? I'm wondering as well, do you care about phones in school or do you wonder how AI is going to affect all of this? We want to talk about all of it. Join me, Bridget Fedesy on Real America. Wednesday, August 20th at 7pm Eastern, 6pm Central. We will be live discussing this.

[Tracy]

You can register to join the conversation.

[Sean]

At 2way TV BridgetZoom. Or you can simply watch the episode at Real America FY on YouTube. Please join the conversation. I want to hear from you guys.

[Tracy]

About what?

[Sean]

How are you educating your kids? What are you doing? How do you handle any of this? I have a young toddler.

[Tracy]

I need your advice.

[Sean]

See you then.

[Mark]

Again. George, Bridget, tonight at 7 and tomorrow 2:30. Special opportunity to join the group chat with Dan and his colleagues Nina, Emma, Joe, Bacha and Robbie at 2:30 tomorrow. So put that on your calendar so you can join them. Grateful to everybody who joined today. Thank you for being part of two way. We'll see you in 23 hours. Goodbye.