AOC, Adam Schiff to Join 30-Plus Democrats to Skip Trump's State of the Union for Anti-Trump Rally

Summary

The Morning Meeting (2WAY)

Episode: AOC, Adam Schiff to Join 30-Plus Democrats to Skip Trump's State of the Union for Anti-Trump Rally

Date: February 24, 2026
Host: Mark Halperin
Panelists: Larry O'Connor, Kevin Walling

Episode Overview

This episode, airing on the morning of President Donald Trump’s scheduled State of the Union address, offers a real-time newsroom-style look at the political, policy, and cultural dynamics shaping the day's biggest stories. The show dives into what to expect from the State of the Union (SOTU), the evolving rituals of presidential communication, Democratic counterstrategies—including the anti-Trump rally organized by over 30 members including AOC and Adam Schiff—and provides a behind-the-scenes guide to the news cycle. The panel also covers side stories such as the ongoing situation in Ukraine, fresh controversies for politicians like Gavin Newsom, and sobering domestic news.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Union: Context & Expectations

[08:20; 09:25; 10:13]

• Historical Significance & Format:

  • SOTU framed not as the “Super Bowl of Politics” but the “People’s Choice award of politics.” Emphasis on spectacle and tradition.
  • Unique elements this year: governor of Virginia giving Democratic response, U.S. Men’s Hockey Team attending, and notable guests in the First Lady’s box.
  • The anchor luncheon before the speech—a tradition evolving with media, now less exclusive and more on-the-record.

• Trump’s Approach:

  • Mark: “President Trump has broken the mold on a million things... he didn’t do [traditional policy teases] very much in the first term. In this speech... I see one single policy that’s being advertised as being in the speech.” [19:09]
  • Narrative expected: contrast between “where we were a year ago” and present accomplishments, especially on the border and economy.
  • Likely emotional moments, celebration of “great American heroes,” ambitious agenda for working-class Americans. [08:32]

• Democratic Strategies & the Optics of Protest:

  • Noted that 30+ Democrats, including AOC and Adam Schiff, plan to skip the SOTU in favor of an anti-Trump rally.
  • Panelists urge Democrats: if showing up, avoid disruptive behavior (walkouts, heckling) that could backfire optically. [12:03–12:44]
  • Kevin: “If we’re screwing around on the floor or walking out or heckling, that does nothing to support our cause.” [12:23]

• Speech Predictions & Post-Speech Spin:

  • Length of speech debated: estimates range from 70 minutes to 118 minutes. [28:24–28:52]
  • “There’ll be some great Made for TV moments.” [27:28]
  • After-speech narrative will be shaped by who’s on TV afterwards to interpret the speech for millions. Reference to Van Jones’s emotional response to Trump’s first SOTU. [27:28–28:21]

---

2. Major Policy Topics in Focus

a) AI and Energy: “Ratepayer Protection Pledges”

[19:09–23:46]

• Trump set to announce a new policy requiring tech companies to pay increased electricity costs where new AI data centers are built.
• Mark: “It’s a questionable constitutionality as far as I’m concerned.”
• Larry: “Many of them are meant to sort of offer ideas of a political nature but might not pass muster legislatively or constitutionally.”
• Discussion of why Trump’s team doesn’t preview policies: to prevent critics from organizing counterattacks before the president frames them.

b) The Economy & Deficit

[46:36–53:01]

• Guest segment: Richard Coffin of USAFacts visualizes federal finances ahead of the SOTU:
  • 2025 revenue: $5.3 trillion; spending: $7.1 trillion (60% mandatory programs, 14% interest on debt); deficit: $1.8 trillion [47:38–51:02]
  • Interest on national debt nearly equals military budget. “It’s now the size of entire programs.” [51:02]
  • Mark: “No president submits a balanced budget, including this one.” [50:12]

c) Foreign Policy

[29:06–32:18]

• Iran: Imminent talks, speculation on motives behind leaks from Pentagon officials—head fakes or genuine attempts to forestall/shape military action.
• Ukraine: Four years after Russia’s invasion; U.S. aiming for July 4th deal to pair with America’s 250th anniversary.
  • “[Russia] has not had a great deal time of it recently... the global oil market right now is not helping Putin.” [31:28–31:48]
• China: Professor Kenny calls in to emphasize the need for U.S. focus on China’s technology and trade moves, including the chips/Taiwan situation.
  • Kevin: “[China and Russia] are making huge investments in the global south... that’s why we’re trying to onshore so much of the chip manufacturing from Taiwan.” [44:31]

---

3. Political & Media Subplots

a) Media Coverage & Anchor Lunch Tradition

[24:33–27:28]

• Brief history of the anchor lunch, once an off-the-record session for TV news legends, now larger, more contentious, and occasionally on-the-record by presidential fiat.
• Expansion correlated with rise of cable/digital news, diluting exclusivity.
• Mark: “Trump said halfway through the lunch, hey, let’s just put this on the record.”

b) Gavin Newsom Under Fire

[34:34–42:10]

• Newsom’s book launch is overshadowed by controversy over SAT/dyslexia comments, accusations of pandering, and combative responses (including “fuck off” from his communications chief).
• Newsom’s own explicit Twitter retort to Sean Hannity read on air:
  • “Spare me your fake fucking outrage, Sean.” [36:40]
• Panel debate: Does fighting like Trump (profanity, pugnacity) help or hurt Newsom, especially among exhausted voters?

---

4. Notable and Emotional Moments

a) Savannah’s Video Plea about Her Missing Mother

[13:23–17:30]

• Emotional segment with Savannah offering a $1 million family reward for leads on her missing mother and announcing a $500,000 donation to the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children.
• First time Savannah openly acknowledges the possibility her mother may be dead.
  • “We also know that she may be lost. She may have already gone home to the Lord that she loves... If this is what is to be, then we will accept it. But we need to know where she is.” (Savannah) [13:45]
• Kevin: “Just a heartbreaking... you can see how her face is drawn... it is just awful and tragic.” [17:48]

b) Live Audience/Call-in Segment

[42:28–45:28; 53:30–58:10]

• Professor Kenny highlights the risk of U.S. underestimating China—panel concurs.
• Call-in question about the constitutionality of energy rate policies and SCOTUS—Walt, an attorney, brings constitutional perspective.

---

5. Congressional & Political Intrigue

• Rep. Gonzalez, TX: Facing allegations over an affair and staffer suicide; panel expects him to be out by next week’s primary. [33:14–34:14]
• Democratic Primary in Maine: Graham Platner leads Janet Mills; possible implications for Susan Collins’s Senate reelection. [59:23–60:15]
• Epstein Survivors Attending SOTU: Coordinated by Democratic members to highlight issues of abuse and justice. [06:56]

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• SOTU Preview & Conventional Wisdom – [08:20–10:13]
• Policy Preview “Ratepayer Protection Pledges” – [19:09–23:46]
• Anchor Lunch Tradition & Media Dynamics – [24:33–27:28]
• Speech Length Discussion/Bets – [28:24–28:52]
• Iran/Ukraine Foreign Policy – [29:06–32:18]
• Newsom Controversy, Media Response – [34:34–42:10]
• Savannah’s Heartfelt Appeal – [13:23–17:30]
• USAFacts Federal Budget Data – [46:36–53:01]
• Live Call-ins (Professor Kenny, Walt) – [42:28–45:28; 53:30–58:10]
• Political Horse Race (Platner in Maine, Gonzalez in TX) – [59:23–60:15]

---

Memorable Quotes

• “We seek the story of our future.” — Kevin [00:46]
• “It’s not the Super Bowl of politics. It’s more like the People’s Choice award.” — Mark [00:52]
• “If we’re screwing around on the floor or walking out or heckling, that does nothing to support our cause.” — Kevin [12:23]
• “He [Trump] didn’t do [policy teases] very much in the first term... this is quite unusual to not be forecasting stuff.” — Mark [19:09]
• “Many of [Trump’s policies] are meant to offer ideas of a political nature but might not pass muster legislatively or constitutionally.” — Larry [21:00]
• “I think flash means more than substance with all this.” — Kevin [22:22]
• "This proves the adage that someone said the United States is a health insurance company with nuclear weapons." — Kevin [49:39]
• “Spare me your fake fucking outrage, Sean.” — Gavin Newsom, quoted by Mark [36:40]
• “If this isn’t your thing, don’t try and play into it just to be on his [Trump’s] level.” — Kevin [40:02]
• “We also know that she [Savannah’s mother] may be lost. She may already be gone. ... But we need to know where she is.” — Savannah [13:45]
• “China’s always there whether you hear it as a big thrust of the president’s daily speech or not.” — Larry [43:49]
• “The deficit was about $1.8 trillion this year... certainly still one of the higher deficits we’ve run.” — Richard Coffin, USAFacts [50:31]

---

Tone & Style

The show is a blend of newsroom candidness, policy wonkishness, and cutting political banter, punctuated by passionate asides (especially on Newsom, Trump, and personal stories like Savannah’s). The panelists—and host Mark—shift seamlessly between gallows humor and serious analysis, welcoming listener calls for dynamic exchanges.

---

For Listeners

This episode provides a comprehensive preview of the State of the Union—including expected themes, political theater, media dynamics, and underlying policy stories (AI, economy, global affairs). It’s both a guide to the day’s news and a window into how decision-makers, journalists, and politicians game out the events that shape America’s political moment.

Useful links & further info:

• State of the Union in numbers: USAFacts.org/State-Of-The-Union
• Daily Mail & 2WAY post-SOTU coverage livestream: 8:30pm ET

---

Summary covers segment times: [00:49]–[62:39], skipping ads and extended banter/outros per instructions.

Transcript

[Larry]

This is it. The world as you know it is over. Completely done. It's not about to be over. It's over.

[Mark]

Some of the scientists who helped build

[Kevin]

AI are now sounding the alarm.

[Richard]

I was selling AI as a great

[Larry]

thing for decades and I was wrong. I was wrong.

[Richard]

There's a longer term existential threat that

[Mark]

will arise when we create digital beings

[Walt]

that, that are more intelligent than ourselves.

[Mark]

We have no idea whether we can stay in control. While others say that AI will usher in unfathomable abundance, I've always believed that

[Kevin]

it's going to be the most important invention that humanity will ever make.

[Larry]

This really will be a world of abundance.

[Kevin]

And among these fears and these fantasies,

[Mark]

we seek the story of our future.

[Kevin]

Listen to the last invention on Apple,

[Mark]

Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to it's not the super bowl of politics. It's more like the People's Choice award of politics. The President tonight, State of the Union address, nine Eastern time. We know a lot. We know start at 9 o'. Clock. We know he says it's going to be long. We know he, he holds three of the top like seven longest states of the Union ever. We know that the governor of Virginia will give the Democratic response a few minutes after the President. We know the US Men's hockey team will be there. We know there'll be other great Americans in the First Lady's box. And beyond that, I don't know much, but Kevin Walling, Larry o' Connor are here to teach us all, educate us about how this so too will proceed. So we talk a lot about State of the Union. There's some other topics we will definitely get to, including it's the fourth anniversary of the tragic invasion by Russia into Ukraine. Talk about Iran, Congressman Gonzalez, the Senate filibuster, Epstein, and my favorite topic of the day, the horrible mistreatment of so many in America of the Governor of California. The poor governor of California is being mistreated and he's mistreating people back, or his team is. Anyway, we'll have all that and more for you, plus surprising twists and turns and your participation. If you're here in the platform and would like to get in on the conversation, please raise your hand. We'd love to have you be part of it. If you've never raised your hand, Stay the Union, traditionally a good time for first time callers, longtime listeners, to enter the phrase. So please raise your hand if you want to be part of the conversation. And then as we run through the Daybook in a minute. Is there a new Savannah Guthrie video? Noah believe there is. So we'll bring you that in just a minute. I believe the family's offering a big reward now. A little surprising to me they didn't do that previously. Anyway, we'll bring you that in just a minute. I'm going to do a word from a sponsor and then to the day book. And just sorry to be, sorry to be struggling here, but I'm juggling a lot of things. In addition to everything I just said, we're also going to have a look at for the context of the state union, federal spending, the deficit, et cetera, with our friends from USA Facts. They'll be here as well. But I want to start, ladies and gentlemen, where we begin most episodes. Gentlemen, good morning. I didn't really say good morning. How are you guys doing?

[Larry]

Good morning.

[Kevin]

Just jump right into it.

[Mark]

Yeah. Anyway, Daybook in just a second. And then to you, you both, I want to start where we start most episodes with Penny and Polly. Penny and Polly, known to all of you as perhaps America's biggest fans of Cozy Earth and the Bubble Cuddle blanket. Go ahead, Paul. Put up the photo. This is Penny and Polly deep in colloquy on the day before this day of the union. Confused about who actually owns the bubble Cuddle blanket. One Bubble Cuddle blanket in that family and yet two pups who both love the bubble Cuddle blanket. I recommend to all of you, buy at least one. And if you have pets, maybe buy more than one because you're going to want to share it right now. The bubble cuddle blanket that Penny and Polly proudly own and everything else in the Cozy Earth website available to you at 20% off. Use the promo code. Morning@cozy earth.com get the Bubble Cuddle blanket. Get the sheets, the towels, the pants, everything available to you, 20% off. And today's the day. If you've never bought a single item from Cozy Earth, despite my frequent, let's call it what it is, hectoring of you to buy something today. Buy one thing. Just go on there. Use the discount cozyearth.com promo code. Morning. Buy one thing and then see how nice it is. And then perhaps you'll buy more. It's tax season and at Lifelock, we know you're tired of numbers, but here's a big one you need to hear.

[Larry]

Billions.

[Mark]

That's the amount of money and refunds

[Larry]

the IRS has flagged for possible identity fraud.

[Mark]

Now here's another big number. 100 million. That's how many data points. LifeLock monitors every second.

[Larry]

If your identity is stolen, the will fix it, guaranteed. One last big number. Save up to 40% your first year.

[Mark]

Visit lifelock.com podcast for the threats you can't control. Terms apply. Thank you for your. Your attention.

[Larry]

To that matter, which is the dog on the. On the right. The. The.

[Mark]

I think that's Penny, but don't hold me to it.

[Larry]

I think Penny looks highly skeptical of whoever.

[Mark]

Is I actually, actually taking that photo, Paul? I don't. I don't think that's the photo I sent you. To tell you the truth, I think that's an old one. Is that the one I sent you yesterday? I don't think it is. I stay. With respect, I don't think that's the right photo. With respect.

[Kevin]

With respect.

[Mark]

You're gonna tell me when you have the Savannah video and we'll play it. But until then, let me proceed with the daybook President schedule tonight. Of course. Stay the Union at 9 o'. Clock. Interesting. We'll talk about this in a second. It's been around for a while. I don't know. The first president who did this might have been Bush 41, maybe Clinton. I don't know. Lunch with network anchors with. The definition of network anchors has changed over the years. Again, we'll talk about this in a minute. State of the Union luncheon. I've never seen it on the president's schedule before. Maybe Trump's done it, but normal presidents, normal I say in air quotes, would not do that. So 12:30 is having lunch with anchors and then that's the State of the Union address at 1pm I'm not sure why it says that, but it's 9pm and then the Democratic response after the vice president, of course, will attend as well. Pete Hegseth is meeting with the head of Anthropic today to talk about the Pentagon's unhappiness with the way Anthropic is being curtailed for use by the Pentagon as the Pentagon shops around to perhaps start using other AI. And Marco Rubio is hosting the Gang of Eight at the White House today to brief them on Iran, and we'll see what comes out of that. There's more optimism about the meeting in Geneva in two days today than there was yesterday amongst folks I talked to. So we'll see the Iranians come back to the table on Thursday with a real offer. House and Republicans hold a conference meeting at this hour and then a press conference at 10. They'll get a lot of questions about State of the Union and about Congressman Gonzalez, which we'll talk about. Democrats meet at noon. Tim Kaine is delivering the annual reading of George Washington's farewell address at 2pm That's a good event. Jamie Raskin, Congressman Jayapal, Congresswoman Fernandez holding a 3:15 press conference with Epstein survivors, many of whom will attend the State of the Union. I believe it's the guests of Democrats, Democratic members of the Congress, Supreme Court's hearings tomorrow, arguments today and a bunch of Democratic response events, prebuttal and post the president's State of the Union move On and Midas Touch at 8:00'.

[Kevin]

Clock.

[Mark]

Hold the People Stay the Union rally on the Mall. Gavin Newsom's book officially released today even though he's already started his book tour. Governor Shapiro hosts a discussion with Pennsylvania farmers and AG leaders at 11:30 this morning. All right, let's start with we'll show the Savannah video as soon as it's available. You guys will tell me when it is. Let's start with the State of the Union. Larry. Just started 85,000ft. The conventional wisdom comes to us from Caroline Levitt who on FOX and Friends this morning said the president's going to talk about what he's accomplished and the more that's left to do. This is Caroline Levitt on FOX and friends. Number 121, please.

[Kevin]

How does the president message? Okay, things are better. Things were broken when I got into office.

[Larry]

I fixed a lot of things. But there's still some growth to do.

[Richard]

But you're going to hear President Trump tackle that message head on tonight. And I know he's greatly looking forward to to addressing the nation. His speech is going to be a celebration of the 250th year of America's independence. He is going to share the stories of great American heroes who exemplify bravery and the spirit of 1776. And the president is of course going to tout his administration's record setting accomplishments over the past year while laying out an ambitious agenda to continue making the American dream more attainable and affordable for working class people across the country. It's going to be a great speech. There will be some tear jerking moments as there was last year in addition to some moments of levity. And so we hope everybody will tune in.

[Larry]

All right.

[Mark]

So Larry, what are your expectations for tonight in terms of what the president would headline he's going for and what headline?

[Kevin]

He's got that halo. She got that great halo lighting behind

[Larry]

her to look at that lighting, by God.

[Mark]

Good Lord, that was beautiful.

[Larry]

There's only a few days when the sun is aligned just that way.

[Mark]

It's gorgeous.

[Larry]

I think that I would, I would expect the president to spend a pretty good amount of time reminding everybody where we were a year ago. I think that's, I've mentioned this before in the program. I think he's a victim of his own success with regard to the border and with regard to certain aspects of the economy, especially energy costs. And I think that he will say, let's not forget a year ago, this is where we were. This is what I inherited. Here's what we've done now. Here's the work that still needs to get done. And it would be great if the other people in this room, the 535 people who showed up today, will help me get that done. I think, you know, this is when the message for the midterms really begins.

[Mark]

Kevin, one speech can't turn it around. But clearly the president needs a narrative change. I mean, even his supporters, honest ones, will admit between the polls and the flow of the news cycle, it's not been a great couple weeks or months. What would be your view, the best case for the president tonight?

[Kevin]

Yeah, best case scenario is he doesn't go over two hours. To your point, I think he still leads three of seven in terms of the longest speeches ever. Richard Nixon, interestingly enough, 1972, under 30 minutes. So, you know, one can hope for that kind of timeline, but it is a reset for the administration. 40 million Americans tuned in last year. So this is the president's real chance to talk to a lot of folks out there in the universe. But to Larry's point, you know, new polling, 60% of Americans think they're worse off from just a year ago, including two thirds of independents. So the president has an interesting needle. He's got a thread here where he can't just blame Biden. I think people are over that. He in that NBC sit down from a few weeks ago said this is now my economy. So I don't think folks are that interested in going back to recalibrating the Biden years. He's got to be forward thinking, forward looking. Talk about Trump rx, talk about the winds at the border. To Larry's point, highlight some of the people in the first lady's box that will help tell that narrative. But, you know, we'll see if he's up to the, up to the case that's just here.

[Mark]

Larry.

[Larry]

Kevin, do you think I was struck by the fact that the, the angel mom event yesterday? I think sort of was a bit of a sneak peek. You're going to see a couple of those angel moms in the box tonight. And I was surprised that CNN and Ms. Now didn't cover the event, really, except afterwards after the fact. Do you, do you think Democrats will acknowledge the angel moms because they didn't stand for a little boy dying of cancer?

[Kevin]

They, they better. They better. You know, I think, you know, all indications are. I was on some calls with Kim Jeffrey's team yesterday previewing all this. I hope he corrals folks better because that just, you know, the signs that folks brought, to say nothing of Al Green with his cane, you know, those are total distractions that don't do us any good either because while the president's numbers aren't strong, Democrats numbers aren't strong. And optically, if we're, you know, screwing around on the floor or walking out or heckling, that does nothing to support our cause.

[Larry]

I really think it would be so smart for Democrats to actually not do what they have done in the past. Some are not showing up. That's fine. But if you show up, don't do that. I really think.

[Kevin]

No, don't do that. Let's, here's my, here's my question to you too. Here's my question to you over under. Does the president call out the Supreme Court directly to their faces right in the first row on tariffs? Yes.

[Mark]

Yes.

[Kevin]

And does he name names?

[Larry]

You mean, you mean does he do an Obama?

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Mark]

He doesn't.

[Larry]

He doesn't United yet. I think he will.

[Mark]

He'll call them out.

[Kevin]

You don't think he names names? He doesn't go after Gorsuch.

[Mark]

He won't.

[Larry]

Barrett.

[Mark]

Okay, let's just pause on our State of the Union conversation. There's a new video from Savannah announcing the family's offering one million dollar reward for tips leading to the relate to her disappearance of her mom.

[Savannah]

Hi there. Coming on to say it is day 24 since our mom was taken in the dark of night from her bed. And every hour and minute and second and every long night has been agony since then of worrying about her and fearing for her, aching for her and most of all, just missing her. Just missing her. We know that millions of you have been praying. So many people have been praying of every faith and no faith at all, praying for her return. And we feel those prayers. Please keep praying without ceasing. We still believe. We still believe in a miracle. We still believe that she can come home. Hope against hope. As my sister says, we are blowing on the Embers of hope. We also know that she may be lost. She may already be gone. She may have already gone home to the Lord that she loves and is dancing in heaven with her mom and her dad and with her beloved brother Pierce and with our daddy. If this is what is to be, then we will accept it. But we need to know where she is. We need her to come home. For that reason, we are offering a family reward of up to $1 million for any information that leads us to her recovery. All of the information about this reward and the details is in the caption below. You can call the 1-800-TIP-RINEL. You can be anonymous if you want. Someone out there knows something that can bring her home. Somebody knows. We are begging you to please come forward now. We also know that we are not alone in our loss. We know there are millions of families that have suffered with this kind of uncertainty. And for that reason, today, we also are donating $500,000 to the national center for missing and exploited Children for their work in helping families who are coping with loss and actively looking for those who are lost. We are hoping that the attention that has been given to our mom and our family will extend to all the families like ours who are in need and need prayers and need support. So, please, if you hear this message, if you've been waiting and you haven't been sure, let this be your sign to please come forward, tell what you know, and help us bring our beloved mom home so that we can either celebrate a glorious, miraculous homecoming or celebrate the beautiful, brave, and courageous and noble life that she has lived. Please be the light in the dark. Thank you.

[Mark]

Extremely sad, of course, for all of us, whether, you know, Savannah or not. And the news, of course, is not just the offer of the reward, but I think it's the first time Savannah has talked openly about the possibility explicitly that her mom might be dead already.

[Kevin]

Yeah, I think you're right. I mean, just a heartbreaking. You can see, too, over the course of this awful situation, just the toll that it's taken on, you know, such a beloved national member of our community. Right. And you can just see how her face is drawn. You know, it's so important for her to talk about the. The power of prayer as part of this, and. And I know they put a, you know, a light on that, but it is just awful and tragic. There's some new reporting about new photos from the door cam photo that it may have been separate days, some of the same. I'm looking at the four screen right now. Separate days in which that person was captured on, on image from that doorbell camera. But again, just a tragic situation with not a lot of leads or any direction in terms of where this is headed.

[Mark]

Larry.

[Larry]

Yeah, I agree. And it's just, it's impossible not to watch that and not get emotional. And again, just to sort of, as an outside observer, if she has, if the family had the means to offer this kind of reward, one wonders why they didn't immediately, and whether they got advice from law enforcement professionals or investigators that suggested they not. Because I know if I had the means to do this, I would have been out there saying, you know, however much it takes. So a lot of questions. A lot of questions.

[Mark]

Yes. I was surprised as well that that didn't happen initially and immediately. All right, happy to talk about that with the community if you all want to, when we get to your questions. So keep that in mind. Back to the State of the Union. Donald Trump has broken the mold on a million things I mentioned before. Normally, you don't broadcast the anchor lunch as a public event. And normally administrations know that if you've got policy that you want to put out that you want to get attention for, whether it's for the whole country or target community, you start doling it out a week in advance to different news organizations. And every president before Donald Trump did that, he didn't do it very much in the first term. In this speech, as best I can tell, I see one single policy that's being advertised as being in the speech. That's from a Wall street journal story 103. It's an interesting policy, and it certainly responds to the public mood. But it's quite unusual to not be forecasting stuff. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if this didn't, even if this didn't end up in the speech, because I can imagine people trying to kill it after they read the Wall Street Journal this morning. Here's the policy. President plans to announce, quote, ratepayer protection pledges. The administration has negotiated with tech companies that requires them to pay increased electricity costs in communities where new AI data centers are being built. The president expected to say the companies have made commitments to, quote, pay their own way. This is a huge issue. It's one of the many issues that's freaking people out about AI, that these giant facilities come into their communities and they use a lot of energy. This is a questionable constitutionality as far as I'm concerned. But let's first talk about this policy and then the general question of why the Trump administration does not do the normal thing because if this is in the speech tonight, it's going to get no attention because it's going to be overshadowed by the hockey team and everything else and whatever other policies are going to get even less attention. So, Larry, what do you think of that policy idea and the general question of why they're not doing more?

[Larry]

I'm with you on the constitutionality of it, but we've seen a lot of ideas coming from the administration in the last couple of months to sort of address the affordability concern that people have politically in this country. And many of them are meant to sort of offer ideas of a political nature but might not pass muster legislatively or constitutionally. So this isn't sort of an outlier there.

[Mark]

It's sort of add that to the list.

[Larry]

I think the president's team, generally speaking, doesn't like to float stuff out early in general, not just at the state.

[Mark]

Why not, though?

[Larry]

You know, I think because they don't want people to have a chance to shoot it down before the president can present it in his words. Also, by the way, I think frankly, knowing people who worked in the first administration pretty intimately and a couple of people in Trump 2.0, which is a little locked down more, I think a lot of times the president hasn't really decided 100% one way or the other on policy.

[Mark]

Yeah, it's probably, Kevin, this is a two for this policy. It speaks to affordability and it also speaks to people's concerns about AI. But it's also something.

[Larry]

And suburban sprawl, these are all happening in suburban areas, middle class voters who don't like these things.

[Mark]

And Kevin, also, this is something Democrats in theory could be all for. You could imagine a Democrat president, a Democratic president proposing this. So what's your view about whether policy matters tonight or not?

[Kevin]

I think flash means more than substance with all this. Right. So I think it's going to get to your point. Mark kind of brushed under the radar, especially with the hockey team and other folks there. The border issue, immigration, to Larry's point, I think it's right. And we've seen it in recent memory when the administration teased out this idea of limiting credit rates and things like that. And then Republicans and Speaker Johnson were like, I don't think that's a good idea. So there is that element of the president kind of just throwing stuff up against the wall and not wanting to preview that too much because of not just Democratic opposition, but sometimes Republican policies come into conflict with that. But again, the fact that they Aren't teasing this beforehand. Aside from this one piece, the day of the speech is interesting. And of course, we know this was a major factor in the governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey when it came to utility rate and what folks were paying. But the administration doesn't have that many levers when it comes to. Similar to the Biden administration, we didn't have that many levers when it came to actually controlling inflation and things like that. You can strengthen supply chains, you can not do these tariffs. You can actually extend those health care subsidies under the aca. But there's very few actual things that an executive can do to lower prices. And that's why you see this president kind of oftentimes throwing things up against the wall to see what sticks.

[Larry]

That said, one key part of the Trump policy here with regard to energy does address this issue. If states would adopt it and jump on board, and that is to get rid of these EV mandates, get rid of all of the, you know, you look at Maryland and Virginia right now, who are two states that are dealing with these sprawling data centers and the skyrocketing costs of electricity right here in the back door of the nation's capital backyard, I should say. And you've got a governor in Maryland who has not not allowed any new development of power other than wind turbines and solar. And they're borrowing electricity from other states and rates are spiking. Trump administration, their Energy Department and their Interior Department want states to embrace coal again and want to look in other directions, and that would bring the rates down. And I expect him to tout those policies tonight as well.

[Mark]

All right, let me do a brief history of the anchor lunch started under President Reagan. Back then, it was Dan, Tom, and Peter. Those were the only anchors we had.

[Larry]

It was Reagan.

[Kevin]

I would never guess Reagan.

[Mark]

Reagan had Dan, Tom and Peter. Peter and what would happen is if you covered the White House as a reporter, your, your boss would show up one day a year and they'd all showed up together. And Dan, Tom and Peter weren't together all that often. So it's kind of a. They were bigger deals than most people. They covered. And they'd go into the President's room off the Oval and they'd have lunch and, and the president would, the speech would be locked down, so the president would brief them off the record on what was in the speech that could flavor their coverage at 6:30. And that was the anchor lunch. Very civilized. Nothing ever leaked. The anchors would come out, they say hello to their colleagues, then go back to the office, but they wouldn't leak anything. And, and then, and then cable started and so they started adding Bernie Shaw and Judy Woodruff, and it got bigger. And of course, Dan, Tom and Peter didn't like that at all because it diluted their access to the president. The thing stayed off the record. And then it got a little more contentious. And I remember there was a real contentious one in Bush 43. George Stephanopoulos, a network anchor and also, apparently also a former Democratic White House official, I believe, had a little back and forth with President Bush at one point. And then sometimes what would happen in the age, the digital age, the anchors would come out and they'd stop by their booths and they tell their colleagues what happened at the lunch. And they'd tell their colleagues, of course, this is all off the record. And, you know, one of my favorite expressions is, I'm very good at keeping secrets. It's the people I tell who aren't. Then those colleagues would tell other colleagues.

[Kevin]

That's why I don't tell Larry anything, because he just goes right out there.

[Mark]

And then, and then I forget. I forget if it's Bush or Obama. But stuff started leaking out and the White House staff was like, you know, screw that. Like, these are supposed to be off the record. Then I think somebody's going to tell me if I'm, I've meant to look this up. But I'm pretty this happened, I'm pretty sure, at one of these lunches, and now they're massive because, you know, everybody but the morning meeting hosts are allowed to go. At one point, I believe Trump said halfway through the lunch, hey, let's just put this on the record. And so it no longer became this kind of private psych background briefing. And all of a sudden now it's just like a press conference. So we'll see what happens today. I don't know who all's invited, but I think it's a pretty robust group. I noticed. What's it, Joe Kernan is in D.C. today. I wouldn't be surprised if he did one. And then they started doing an alternative one for the congressional leadership. So Jefferies or Schumer might be having their own lunch today for, you know, Midas touch, whatever. Anyway, here's my question to you. On the coverage tonight. I assume the broadcast networks are all going to take it. Is the Trump, Kevin, is the Trump administration well positioned here to get favorable coverage for the speech, or is it all going to be skeptical from the dominant media? Is there any the hockey team, Right.

[Kevin]

Like, yeah, Yeah, I mean, I think there'll be some great Made for TV moments. You know, Caroline in the preview said, you know, people will be laughing and crying and all this kind of stuff. We'll see if there's high drama with. There's been some special moments in say the union's past, both Democrats and Republicans that really caught the attention of the American people. But again, it all depends on who the main networks have in the room afterwards providing commentary on the speech as well. We remember, you know, Van Jones in tears, the first Trump administration saying, you know, the President has changed completely, you know, and what a speech it was. So again, we'll see who is actually in these rooms spinning the narrative afterwards and we'll see how long he goes too. If it's two hours, you know, again, he's also, you know, then it's 11 o' clock at night on the east coast and we'll see who's actually up for the post game analysis even.

[Larry]

We were a Peter family, by the way, for the record.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Larry]

In our family.

[Kevin]

Peter Jennings.

[Larry]

Yeah. And David. We were broke.

[Mark]

Yeah, yeah, we were broke all the way. Let's do the over under here. Larry, how long will the speech be?

[Larry]

I'm going to go with 70 minutes.

[Mark]

Oh my goodness. I'll take the over on that. Kevin.

[Kevin]

Yeah, I'm going to go with 71. This is price is Right rules. You just gotta.

[Mark]

I'm going, I'm going 80, I'm going 86. I wish I could go 72, but I'm going, I'm going 86.

[Larry]

I usually tell like it is, but in this case it is 100% wishful thinking. Yeah, I got an early morning tomorrow.

[Mark]

It's going to be rough.

[Kevin]

The chat is, the chat is lighting up with the predictions too. I'm, I'm with Professor Kenny, 118 minutes on this.

[Mark]

You guys are killing me. Iran, Iran talks on Thursday. People are thinking now there's not going to be any military action until Thursday. I asked this question last night on two Way tonight, but I'm curious to know what you guys think. What drove some Pentagon official to tell the world that General Kane has reservations about the dangers of an attack? What drove that was an attempt to stop an operation. Was it attempt to cya. Kevin. What, what drove that? Because he gave it out.

[Kevin]

Or. Yeah, could be option three, could be a head fake too. Right. There's a lot of this element of, you know, we're still negotiating, we're still going to do this and then more and more assets are Moving in as we're doing this. And it could be that.

[Mark]

Okay, so there's one theory, Larry. Any idea?

[Larry]

That's kind of what I thought. I thought it would be a head of a.

[Richard]

Okay.

[Kevin]

And I'll tell you, we also haven't seen that out of General Kane before, too. A lot of like the telegraphing behind the scenes.

[Mark]

Right.

[Kevin]

Press and stuff like that. He's actually kept a low profile. Correct. Since becoming chairman.

[Mark]

Why is Rubio briefing a gang of eight? Is that, is that first? Is that to send a signal or they believe in a co. Equal branch. All of a sudden it's surprising to me that he's briefing them. Why do you think that's happening?

[Larry]

I believe so. I think there's actually been an advance in the conversation here. And not that we're closer to peace, but I think we finally have some, some reports that there's a. We understand where they're at. Loggerheads. The Trump administration still insisting now that ballistic missiles and other aspects of Iran's war capabilities are on the table. Iran says absolutely. Not just nuclear, just enrichment. And there we are. I mean, I think we've now sort of reached some sort of clarity on what they're not going to agree on. And I think Rubio is sort of downloading, briefing them where the talks stand right now. And short of any kind of miracle, I think then, you know, we're going to see some sort of kinetic activity over there. That's, that's my hunch.

[Mark]

Okay. Fourth anniversary. Russia, Ukraine. Some stirring comments from European leaders today of support for Ukraine. Zelensky saying he hopes the United States stays with him. A report today that the president wants a deal by July 4th so he can make that part of the 250th celebration. Let me ask it this way. We ask, we ask about this all the time. Basically, Groundhog Day. Larry, what's the thing you're saying that makes you most optimistic about a deal?

[Larry]

Most optimistic, yeah. Anything, I guess Russia has not had a great deal time of it recently. They've actually had some struggles. I think as long as. And, and again, the global oil market right now is not helping Putin. So if he's going to be inclined to make a deal, I think now would be the time to do it. And I do expect President Trump to actually note the anniversary tonight in the speech.

[Mark]

Kevin?

[Kevin]

Yeah, I agree with Larry on, on the oil prices. The Russian economy is continues to. To get hurt with this. We've also seen recently more information about actual Russian casualties. That's something that we haven't really seen before. And the fact that they're just losing so many young men as part of this to potentially put pressure on the regime. But again, I remain very skeptical that anything is going to happen even by July.

[Mark]

Unfortunately, tariffs are just a mess. There's a million different things going on. Million things. Either give anything you want to say about terrorists, you can pass.

[Kevin]

I'll just say it. It was interesting to see J.B. pritzker, governor of Illinois, be out there saying, I want my $8 billion back for Illinois families on this. Maybe it catches fire in terms of, you know, some Democratic opportunity. But again, there's still many more questions and answers. And of course, you saw FedEx, I think, was one of the first companies that now sue to get that money back.

[Mark]

They want their money back.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Mark]

Larry.

[Kevin]

Yeah. With no real position in sight in terms of how this is actually going to happen.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Larry]

I mean, I'm, I'm interested to see how the president addresses it tonight. That, yeah, that's, that's sort of what I'm looking at.

[Mark]

Yeah, I agree. It's going to be interesting because it's not, it's not a hugely popular topic in the room. It's not.

[Larry]

I'll be interested to see who stands and applauds.

[Kevin]

Yeah. Congress on the Republican side, especially, you

[Mark]

know, Congressman Gonzalez, Republican of Texas, is under a lot of fire in many calls, including from Republicans to reserve side, over allegations of not just an affair with a staffer who then killed herself, but also some sexting that has come out, alleged messages between him and the woman who was on his staff. I believe he'll be gone by the end of the week. That's my sense of things, Larry.

[Larry]

Maybe he'll last until the primary, which is March 6th.

[Mark]

Yeah. So that's, that's a good point.

[Kevin]

Just a week from now. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Larry]

End of next week, not end of this week.

[Mark]

Yeah. Okay.

[Kevin]

Is he, sorry, is he, is he on the ballot? He's running.

[Mark]

He's got a primary.

[Larry]

He's got it.

[Mark]

He's got a primary against a very strong Second Amendment candidate.

[Larry]

And you know, Johnson, anyone who's met Mike Johnson knows what kind of man he is. He would love to get rid of this guy yesterday.

[Mark]

Yeah. But.

[Larry]

Well, but the reality of what he's dealing with there.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Kevin]

Then the numbers game.

[Larry]

Yeah.

[Mark]

But there's no chance a Democrat's going to win the general, right?

[Larry]

No, no, it's the in between time when you, because when you call a special. I think the governor of Texas is one of those states where the governor cannot do a temporary appointment. You've got to have a. I don't

[Mark]

think any state, any, I don't think any state has temporary appointments for house seats.

[Larry]

For house seats.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Kevin]

Nope.

[Walt]

Nope.

[Mark]

Okay. Gavin Newsom books, books out today. He's in the midst of the book tour. I have a policy that I like to call bull crap. Things that are bull crap. And rather than just do what the rest of the people in the media do, this thing that, that I refused to cover yesterday, I'm now being forced to cover where Gavin Newsom said something he said before, which is he had low SAT scores and he's, he's got, he's has trouble reading. And so he can relate to people who struggle. And you can say all you want his dad was rich. And this is just an attempt to suck up and try to pretend he's a regular guy. But those are factual. Those are factual things. And yet it's being cast by people, some on the left, some in the media, many on the right, as insult to the person who was moderating the event where he said this, who happens to be black, some of the audience members who also happen to be black. And here's Gavin Newsom responding on X to amongst many people who criticize him, which is Sean Hannity, who's very close to Governor Newsom. They have a very close relationship. They text back and forth. They've been on his show and everything. So here's Hannity says Gavin Newsom thinks a 960sat makes him, quote, like black Americans. Let that sink in. That's simple. That's along the lines of what a lot of critics of what Newsom said are doing. And here's the governor's tart response on next to his friend Sean, you didn't give a shit about the president, United States of America posting of an ape video of President Obama or calling African nations shitholes, but you're going to call me a racist for talking about my lifelong struggle with dyslexia? Spare me your fake fucking outrage, Sean. So there's two uses of profanity by the governor himself. And then here's a, here's an exchange between Newsom's communications director and a reporter for Real Clear Politics who shot who. Larry spoke to earlier today, eager to hear about that. Anyway, she had a story about his dyslexia and she'd asked the administration, she'd asked the governor's office about his dyslexia. And, and I can't remember Larry what did she actually ask?

[Larry]

Well, she was asking if there was ever a formal diagnosis. Diagnosis.

[Mark]

Right, right. That's right. If there's any formal proof that he had dyslexia. Because he also recently told our friends John Allen, Amy Parnes that he read their 350 page book in an hour and a half. Yeah. And so Izzy responded to her request for documentation about his, the governor's dyslexia by saying, this is a text exchange that was published. Hey, Susan, thanks for reaching out respectfully. Fuck off, Izzy. So as Susan responded, what about that Gavin Newsom dyslexia diagnosis? Can the governor provide any paperwork related to his dyslexia diagnosis at any time of his life? Newsom's comm teams just now tells me to, quote, fuck off. Think Gavin Newsom's comms team is losing it today. So my point of all this is Gavin Newsom's under siege. And again, some people on the left have criticized his comments about his SATs. Other people are attacking both on the left and the right in the center. His record is governor of California. And you could one argument, Kevin, would be, oh, this is good for him. It shows everybody's threatened by him. It shows he's sucking up all the oxygen. But another argument is along the lines of my theory is he and his family are going to be like, we don't want this. We don't want this to be our lives for the next 10 years. What are the implications of Newsom's fighting with Sean Hannity, with people on the left, with people in my business who are acting like the. The SAT thing was a real comment?

[Kevin]

I mean, it certainly elevates them. This is, you know, in direct contrast to what we saw with Josh Shapiro's book tour, which is like, kind of like do no harm under the radar, you know, even compared to Kamala Harris's book tour, where no one was really talking about it. Now all of Twitter and social media and X is talking about Gavin Newsom and this diagnosis and now this fight with Sean Hannity, it elevates them both. And because the amount of oxygen devoted to Gavin Newsom is good for Gavin Newsom at this point. And to your point, Mark, it's a totally different atmosphere when you're. You're running for the top job and we're seeing that play out with West Moore. Larry and I have talked about this before, right. Where there's now real questions about his actual biography. This is the big stakes, and this is what will differentiate. Differentiate as part of your 8 for 28 who actually is up for this job and whether it takes a toll on the family this early on and things like that, we'll see.

[Mark]

Larry?

[Larry]

Yeah, it's interesting. My hunch is that by the time we get to 28, I think the American people are going to want a break from a lot of what we've been enduring for the last 10 years in terms of the heightened, elevated anger in politics right now.

[Kevin]

And just how constant is. Just how constant it is.

[Larry]

And I'm talking about Republicans, too, by the way. I'm talking about Republicans, too. So I feel like, you know, listen, Trump is a unicorn. Trump is Trump. And then Newsom's response to he and his comms guy behaving the way that you just laid out Mark is, listen, Trump does it. Yes, Trump does do it. So if your answer is I'm just like Trump, I, I don't know if that's necessarily going to work. It might catch fire with the Democrat primaries because he fights. I get that. I'm a Republican. I wanted a guy who would fight. I got a guy who would fight. And I'm starting to get exhausted. Not from Trump, but just from the fight. So, I mean, I think it's a dangerous game that he's playing right now.

[Mark]

It's not good for the soul.

[Kevin]

And to Larry's point, and I think it's a good one. You've seen just how inauthentic some Democrats are that have never used the F word before in any situation that are now just, you know, you saw Katie Porter at the, the convention, God love her up there, F Trump, you know, and I'm like, you know, you're a mom in a minivan. You know, this whole, like, don't be, you know, Trump does it because he's always done it. And he came up in, you know, New York real estate in the 80s and 90s, like Queens. If this isn't your, if this isn't your, your, your thing, don't, don't try and play into it. Just to be on his level.

[Larry]

Katie Porter's from Irvine. Come on. That's.

[Kevin]

Yeah. With a minivan, right? Like, yeah. I do want to say, and I love minivans.

[Larry]

Taking the racial element out of it for a second. I wonder if Gavin Newsom, I understand what he's trying to do. I've got a 960sat. I can't read. I'm dyslexic and all that stuff. I wonder if he recognizes sort of the subtext there because he's trying to combat this idea that he's Mr. Perfect and he's rich and he looks great and he's got a, you know, movie star looking wife and the perfect family. He's like, no, no, I'm just a normal guy. If he's got a 960 SAT and he can't really read a speech and yet he has lived this privileged, gifted life. You know, two terms as mayor of San Francisco, two terms Lieutenant governor of California, two terms as governor of California. Does he recognize the privilege that he has sort of introduced into the conversation here in the Democrat primary? And doesn't that make him vulnerable to, you know, politicians in the Democrat primary, saying, why are we rewarding this guy? He's been given everything handed to him on a platter.

[Mark]

Well, yes, but he hasn't. People have complicated lives. Parts of his life were privileged and parts of his life were not. That's all he's saying. And it just. There's plenty of criticize Gavin Newsom about but this stuff. But that's factually true. It is. What is? It's all he's saying in this context. It's all he's saying. There are times in my life when I have struggled. I have not had everything come easy to. To me. That's all he's saying. Like many.

[Kevin]

And we'll see how that plays.

[Mark]

I mean, yeah, I'm not saying it'll play great, but that's what he's saying.

[Larry]

He's. Yeah.

[Kevin]

And again, the interesting thing is work for him. Yeah, I know. The interesting thing is his book is all about his young life, Right. Not about really governing. He had a book about governing before. But, you know, the fact that he's putting a light on this is interesting.

[Mark]

All right, we're going to talk about the state of the union a bit more in just a bit. But Professor Kenny, welcome in. Thank you for being here. Tell everybody what's on your mind.

[Kevin]

Good morning, everyone. First of all, if you're not from Brooklyn, trying to throw the F bomb around is not very successful. So just let Gavin Newsom know that.

[Larry]

Second of all, New Jersey.

[Kevin]

That's why I don't do it.

[Larry]

Second of all, Brooklyn. You can work it into a middle of a syllable. It's so important. Well, I was born with.

[Kevin]

That's every other word. When I came out of the womb, the F word came out of my mouth. So, doc, you got an effing problem. But anyway, seriously, China, you know, I think we're missing the ball on China big time. And New York Times has been reporting it. You know, how they're just stopping some of the trade which with Japan and then also the chip, the, you know, all of the chips with Taiwan we got to pay attention to. I just think that Trump won't mention it tonight because it's not even on his radar, I think. But I really think focus wise he's so spread out with his foreign policy and focusing on Iran right now that I think we're missing the big ball, the big enchilada when it comes to China and we need to be more focused on that. I just wanted to know what your

[Mark]

guys comments are, Larry, thoughts on whether the administration's insufficiently focused on China.

[Larry]

I don't think they're insufficiently focused. I agree with you that it's not gonna be a major thrust to of tonight's speech. But also I think Professor Kenrick recognized that our policy with Ukraine and Russia, our policy with Venezuela and our actions in Venezuela, our policy with Cuba and even our policies with Iran all sort of undergird and play into China. In fact, our actions in Venezuela may have had 50% to do with China than it had to do with.

[Kevin]

Yeah, I understand what the oil, yeah, I get that.

[Larry]

Not just the oil but their direct connections there and China's sort of new presence in the Caribbean here in our hemisphere. So China's always there whether you hear it as a big thrust of the president's daily speech or not. I don't know, Kevin.

[Kevin]

I wish I had gone first because I was going to say exactly what Larry did. I wish the administration, we've talked about this before on on two way. I wish the administration had actually instead of just saying, okay, it's a drug issue, DOJ issue to take out Maduro. No, China and Russia are making huge investments engagement in the global south. You know, talking about the Don Road doctrine and stuff like that and putting a light on that. That's the reason why geopolitically we're engaged in Cuba, in Venezuela and other places. That's the reason why the administration put those tariffs on India, for example. You know, that's why we're trying to onshore so much of the chip manufacturing from Taiwan because of concerns about what Xi Jinping is going to do. And just the fact that the administration isn't talking about this at all really as a justification I think is problematic. I think there's much more of an argument for doing this work if they put that out there front and center. Look forward to the State of the Union show tonight, Mark.

[Mark]

Great. We'll see you again. Thank you again. 8:30 tonight with our colleagues at the Daily Mail and then after the speech as well. So please join us here on the two way platform or on YouTube or on the Daily Mail platforms as well. All right, let's talk a little bit more about the State of the Union and what undergirds so much of the federal government. Questions are about revenue, what's coming in and about spending. And this president has not shown much of a commitment to deficit reduction or debt reduction, but his treasury secretary talks about it a lot. And as always, if you want to be a good citizen, if you want to understand this in a nonpartisan way, just in an objective way way, the best thing to do is look at facts. And the best way to look at facts, we believe, is with our friends, our partners at USAFax. Joining us now, Richard Coffin, chief of research and advocacy for the group USA Facts. It's a nonpartisan group that takes government data and puts it in a form that can be understood and appreciated. And no data is more important to our macro economy and to understanding the choices the government makes. And what we're going to talk about with Richard today. Richard, welcome back. Thank you for being here.

[Richard]

And Mark, great to see you. Happy State of the Union Day.

[Mark]

And to you, Richard. Yeah. Again, Richard's group does something that is unique. They use their ability to gather the government data and then put it in a form that people can use and trust that it's going to be accurate. You can follow them on Instagram, TikTok, Facebook and sign up for their [e-mail] signup. So, Richard, we're going to talk State of the Union today. Tell us first how you all are approaching State of the Union to allow citizens to watch this in an informed way. Yeah.

[Richard]

We have been for the past several years putting out a State of the Union in numbers. We put it out before the President's speech so that everybody can have at their fingertips an understanding of what the, what the government looks like in numbers at the same time that the president is, is going through this exercise.

[Mark]

All right, so let's start with revenue. Talk about how much is coming in and where it's coming from. Yeah. The graphic for those of you who are watching, you can see the graphic now. For those of you listening, listen to Richard closely.

[Richard]

Yeah. And all of these can be found on our [e-mail] so highly recommend checking it out. But yeah, the federal government brought in $5.3 trillion last year. That's up about 4% from the year before. About half comes from income taxes. About another third comes from payroll taxes. I would guess the president Tonight might highlight the 4% that comes from tariffs and customs duties. That's higher than the past several years and was one of the major drivers of the increase this year, even though it still is only about 4% of total revenue.

[Mark]

Larry, any revenue questions for you?

[Larry]

No.

[Mark]

Okay. All right, we'll skip the, we'll skip the revenue grade is a great graph. Yeah. All right, so there's revenue 5.3 trillion in fiscal year 2025. Now, here's spending, and you'll notice spending is more than 5.3, Richard.

[Richard]

Exactly. Spending is about $7.1 trillion. That was still up slightly from last year, about about 1% higher. You know, the two interesting things for me in this is about 60% of that spending is mandatory. Right. Those programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, that are sort of on autopilot, they're not, they're not really renegotiated every year. And another 14% this year was interest paid on our debt. So after you get to that, there's only about a quarter of spending left. And you know what I'd be curious about, the president asking tonight is, you know, is he going to reference that DOGE effort that they kicked off the year with that was it was meant to cut spending. Right. It still went up. It'll be interesting to see how he approaches that.

[Mark]

Yep, I totally agree. Go ahead.

[Larry]

Well, I was going to add, so the light blue wedge there that says transfers to states, Medicaid, CHIP, etc. So before Obamacare or the Affordable Care act in 2010, what would that wedge have looked like? Has that grown? Because so much of Obamacare and the subsidies for people's health care now through that law, are transfers to states.

[Richard]

You know, it's grown in numerically. I don't know that it's grown too much as a percentage of total spending because other things have grown too, like Social Security, Medicare. Right. They've all, they've all gone up, but certainly the actual dollar spend has gone up quite significantly since, since, you know, that, that era.

[Kevin]

Kevin, this proves the adage that someone said the United States is a health insurance company with nuclear weapons, which is really, you know, when you look at this graph, you know, really where most of our spending goes to in terms of health care coverage and then obviously defense.

[Larry]

Yeah.

[Richard]

If you look at this, it's if you take Social Security, Medicare, all those transfers to states, including Medicaid, interest on the debt and the military, that's 86% of spending, and it already pretty much encompasses all of revenue that's taken in. So. So, yeah, I mean, you know, there's not much left after that. I mean, not much.

[Mark]

There'll be a Trump budget that comes out soon. And like Ronald Reagan, I don't predict, I don't expect the President Trump will submit a balanced budget or even a budget with a surplus, because that's not what presidents do, including this one. All right, let's look at the next one. This is about the deficit. And again, state the obvious. If you're going to spend more than you take in, you're going to run a deficit.

[Richard]

Yeah, that's right. The deficit was about $1.8 trillion this year, a little, a little bit lower than last year, about 5% off. So maybe a little bit of improvement, but certainly still one of the higher deficits we've run. I think looking at this chart, it's the seventh highest in the past 45 years or so. So still spending significantly more than we take in every year.

[Mark]

Right. And then obviously, if year after year we're running a deficit, we're going to continue to add to the federal debt that we leave to our children and to our grandchildren. Here's courtesy of Richard and USAFax. Here's the debt chart. Richard, walk us through this one.

[Richard]

Yeah, I mean, this shows that the full debt at 38.5 trillion, that green line, is actually the part of the debt the government owes to itself, which is when the Social Security trust fund is invested in treasury bonds. And so it's actually owed back to the other part of the government, but eventually to the American people. The remaining $30 trillion is what's held by what's known as the public, which includes the 36% or so that is owed to American households and businesses, the 25% or so that's owed to foreign businesses and countries, including the largest of those, which are the UK, China and Japan and then some which is owned by state and local governments. And yeah, I mean, the, it keeps going up. I think the interesting thing to me was that this year we paid about $960 billion in interest on this debt. And that's about the same size as our entire military budget and almost the same size as Medicare. And, you know, when we had three shutdowns and we're talking about, you know, having over the spending, I mean, those are entire programs that, you know, this, this debt interest is now the size of. So, you know, certainly something we don't talk About a lot. But, but definitely a, a big chunk of spending.

[Mark]

Yeah. So again, Richard's organization is nonpartisan. So Richard, what, what do you hope this document, these charts, but also the overall state of the union stuff you guys put out, what do you hope it spurs? What are you trying to do with the data?

[Richard]

Yeah, so again, we're not trying to number check anyone. That's why we put it out before the speech. And we've done for the past several administrative administrations that what we're hoping is that people can use this as sort of a read along. Right. To understand the conte president throws out numbers or when the President talks about some of these major issues that people can really understand, you know, how significant is this compared to what the other, what the government spends on other programs? You know, one of the most popular terms that any president actually talks about in our analysis of the past 45 years of speeches is the word education, which is funny because the federal government doesn't do all that much in education when it comes to spending. And so it'll be interesting to see where the President goes to tonight and we just hope people can follow along.

[Mark]

Yeah, again, tell folks if they want to see the charts and get your newsletter, where do they go?

[Richard]

Yeah, go to USAFacts.orgStateOfTheUnion with dashes between each word.

[Mark]

Okay.

[Kevin]

And again folks, and also linked in

[Mark]

the chat too if you like the ethos of two way. If you like all facts available, nonpartisan, just an understanding of being on the national town square equipped with understanding of the reality. Highly recommend you go to USAFacts.org and sign up. Let's, let's bring in Walt and Richard will stay with us. Walt, welcome in question or comment on whatever you'd like.

[Walt]

Oh, a couple of quick comments. Thanks for having me on. I watched the Gavin Newsom comments and it was reminiscent of Hillary Clinton's speeches where she sort of faked the black accent. It was kind of cringeworthy. Not good.

[Kevin]

Look, don't remind me, Walt. Don't remind me.

[Larry]

I forget that sucks in the purse too.

[Walt]

He doesn't do well pretending to have a poor background and we're SATs, but that's, that's how it goes. I'm preparing to cringe tonight watching Trump attack the attack SCOTUS up front. I'm an attorney. I hate that kind of behavior. It's unbecoming of a president. I hated it when Obama did it. I think Trump is going to do it again. I wish he wouldn't, but I'm kind of preparing for that. It was actually a conservative decision that came out of this Supreme Court. And so he got what he wanted when he appointed these justices. So he's really in no position to complain, but he'll pivot and he'll be fine. One last comment about electric rates, because this is something I actually work on in California. It's unconstitutional to actually charge excessive electric rates when you're a public utility with monopoly power and you're taking money out of the pockets of consumers to pay third parties. And that means data centers for, you know, their costs when it's not part of the cost of serving you electricity. It actually violates the Fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

[Mark]

All right. Well, thank you. Thank you for those three comments. I'm going to open it up to first Kevin, then Larry, then Richard, if he wants to comment on any of the things Walt brought up.

[Kevin]

KEVIN yeah, well, what we're in total agreement that the decision was, you know, from a small C kind of constitutional direction. That's why you saw Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett joined with the majority, along with, obviously, the chief justice on that. And again, too, you know, one of the also hidden things on the utility rate thing, and this is this is a critique of the Democratic Party and a lot of these blue states, they've tacked on so many other regulatory charges to these bills done by public utility commissions and things like that, oftentimes statewide, that tack those fees on, that drive up the cost of of of these rates. And certainly there's got to be, you know, Mikey, Cheryl's out there saying, you know, she's going to put a freeze and stuff like that. We'll see how that plays in New Jersey. Obviously, as we talked about earlier, that was a key thing in that governor's race, certainly. But we will certainly see tomorrow tonight, the dynamic between the Supreme Court, and we will also see what justices decide to show up for the speech as well, because it's not usually the full nine that show up.

[Mark]

LARRY yeah, well, I agree with you.

[Larry]

I'm a conservative Republican. I didn't like it when Obama attacked the justices on Citizens United. The problem is he didn't really suffer any political consequence for it, and too many in the media actually cheered it on and celebrated it, and that's why, in many respects, we're where we are. I would like your explanation, though, on this decision. It wasn't based on the Constitution. It was based on the statute. Justice Kavanaugh said, okay, he cited this statute. He could have used this statute. I think the larger question for me as a conservative voter is that Chief Justice Roberts agreed that the tariffs were not appropriate and had to be struck down. Yet somehow when the Obamacare decision was in front of him, he figured out a way that the Constitution could compel the government to force American citizens to buy a product that they didn't want to buy, in this case, health insurance, otherwise they could get fined. How does John Roberts make that decision in favor of Obamacare and calling it a tax when it clearly wasn't a tax? In fact, Obama even argued it wasn't a tax when he passed that law versus this decision. I just want consistency from the Supreme Court Court.

[Mark]

Well, you need to be as short as Judge janine with a 30 second.

[Larry]

Sorry, that was a long question.

[Walt]

Well, I, I agree with your observation about inconsistency. I, I didn't agree with the Obamacare decision. I think it was contorted. The current decision on terrorists was consistent with the Major questions doctrine, which basically says if you pass vague legislation, the executive branch can't fill in all the blanks and expansively extend their reach to do things that aren't specifically allowed by Congress.

[Larry]

Okay, but again, it's squaring those two or what making them watch is the frustration.

[Mark]

I agree with Walt. Thank you.

[Kevin]

I'm going to start a petition to do a Walt two way on the legal front for a half hour every, every other day.

[Mark]

All right, we'll order it up. A news poll in Maine, Graham Platner continues to hold a large lead over Janet Mills in the Democratic primary. Interesting. Richard, thank you again for being here. Remind everybody one more time if they want to be ready for the State of the Union with solid data, where can they go?

[Richard]

Yeah, go to USAFacts.org State of the Union and the link is in the chat.

[Mark]

Okay. I will see everybody tonight 5:00 Eastern Time for 2A tonight and then stay the Union coverage at 8:30 Eastern with our partners at the Daily Mail headed over now to Sirius XM for the 10 o' clock edition extension of the morning meeting. So I'll see some of you over there and look forward to again. If you want to watch Day of the Union alone, you're welcome to it. But if you want to watch with a community of folks from around the country and around the world, please join me and my colleagues from the daily mail at 8:30 tonight with what else is coming up. I turn you over to Larry and Kevin and Richard. Thank you. I'll see everybody on SiriusXM at 10.

[Larry]

Thank you, Mark. Mark calls it what else is coming up. We like to call it party time because the teacher is gone.

[Kevin]

Teacher's gone. Is he aware we are the captains now? You know from Captain Phillips, we're taking over.

[Larry]

I'm the captain now. Let's continue talking about what's coming up though before we completely take over. By the way, do you have any. Are you concerned about Platner leading by such a wide margin in Maine? There's Kevin, because that was.

[Kevin]

Yeah, because he's untested and you know, he's already kind of stumbled out of the gate from tattoo gates, everything like that. But he's going to be well resourced. I mean he's blown out all the numbers that we're seeing, especially in a state like that. But I think Susan Collins probably. This is going to be the closest election. I was with some main folks over the last couple of days. I think this is going to be her closest election but I think she does pull it off. Can I make a sadly for the Democratic majority?

[Larry]

I don't think the Nazi tattoo story is over. I think that there's a lot more to come out about that and it's just, you know, waiting to see if he gets bizarre.

[Kevin]

That's bizarre, yeah.

[Larry]

Tonight, a new episode of NextUp drops today. Did Mark Hardy tell us about the nextup episode? I'm sorry, I was reading ahead.

[Kevin]

No, because I don't think he's let us know that Alex, Roy and Beverly Hallberg and Jaime Moore are going to be there for it.

[Larry]

Three great folks all on that episode of Next up. And I'd be remiss if I didn't take this opportunity to tell you that my morning show in Washington D.C. tomorrow my co host will be Beverly Hallberg. I have rotating co hosts as well as our mutual friend Cassie.

[Kevin]

Kevin, when do I get to be a co. When do I get to be a co host on this so I can finally have a show for my sister in law who listens to you every morning.

[Larry]

I'm gonna pray about that, Kevin. I'm gonna pray about.

[Kevin]

Pray about it. I can, I can play Republican. Look at this comb over. I got this

[Larry]

two way tonight.

[Kevin]

I got the blazer. I got the blazer. I got the American flag. I could do it. I could. I'm married to Republican. Happy anniversary, Alex. I could, I could, I could play Republican.

[Larry]

Happy anniversary Kevin and Alex. They said it wouldn't last, but congratulations.

[Kevin]

Two years.

[Larry]

That's fantastic.

[Kevin]

Two more to go.

[Larry]

Two way tonight live at five with Times of London's Katie Balls. And from the Daily Mail, chief campaign Correspondent Nikki Schwab, U.S. political reporter John Michael Rash. Let's call it rash. There's two ways. I don't know how to handle that. Do you pronounce the first a, the second a or both at the same time? Rash.

[Kevin]

They don't give us the phonetic spelling, unfortunately.

[Larry]

So it's like it should have an um lot too. That's it's just very frustrating. U.S. executive Editor Wills Robinson. There's a lot going on with two Way tonight. And then the Moynihan Report is taking the day off here because, you know, we're all inflating the whoopee cushions for the State of the Union. And that coverage begins again from the daily mail and two way, as Mark just told you, beginning at 8:30 tonight, do you have plans for the State of the Union? You're going to pop popcorn and have a drinking game. What will be your word to get schnockered tonight during the day Will be my word. You got to take a shot.

[Kevin]

That's a good question.

[Larry]

Bourbon or tequila?

[Kevin]

What would it be in gold medal in honor of our great Olympics and the U.S. men's hockey team going to be on site there for that. But I'm excited for 8:30 though, with 2A in the daily Mail for coverage. And some of those folks that are joining at 5 will also be on for that live interactive show with Mark at 8:30.

[Larry]

And it would be absolutely inappropriate for Kevin and I to counter program and tell you what we're doing media wise during the State of the Union.

[Kevin]

Which we will not. Which we will not.

[Larry]

You're all smart enough to Google it and figure it out. Thanks for watching tonight, everybody. We will see you tomorrow on the morning meeting. Bye Bye.