Iran Signals "Fight to the End" With New Leader Pick, But Will Trump Declare Goals Met and Get Out?

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Morning Meeting

Episode: Iran Signals "Fight to the End" With New Leader Pick, But Will Trump Declare Goals Met and Get Out?
Date: March 9, 2026
Host: Mark Halperin (2WAY)
Co-Hosts/Panellists: Hogan Gidley, Kevin Walling

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Episode Overview

This episode looks ahead to the day’s news events through the unique vantage of top U.S. news network insiders, with laser focus on the intensifying Iran conflict, oil markets, and American political dynamics. The episode’s big questions: Will President Trump declare U.S. military goals in Iran “met” and seek an exit—despite the installation of a new, even more hardline Iranian leader? What does the power transition in Tehran mean for the war, for Israel, for market stability, and for U.S. politics? The roundtable also covers U.S. domestic politics: gas prices, legislative prospects, and the shifting tides within MAGA and the 2026 electoral landscape.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. War in Iran: Is an Exit Imminent?

• Host Mark speculates the war could soon pause, possibly within days, as “benchmarks” have apparently been met by U.S. and Israeli forces.
  • “I'm not predicting the war is going to end in a week, but I'm telling you it might.” (07:14, Mark)
• Kevin Walling concurs, noting even Israeli officials are now speaking in terms of “days, not weeks.”
  • “You're also seeing it kind of teased in the language by the Israelis...that's a clear indication of where they are as well.” (07:57, Kevin)
• Hogan Gidley frames Trump’s possible decision as rooted in both strategic goals and domestic political calculus. If “boxes are checked,” Trump can claim success and withdraw, consolidating bipartisan support.
  • “If he does a few things that are significant...and then gets out real quickly, you have a much broader base of support.” (08:36, Hogan)

Key Takeaway:
Momentum is building for a “mission accomplished” declaration and drawdown, though regime change remains elusive and may not be the U.S. endgame.

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2. Oil Markets & Economic Fallout

• U.S.-Iran hostilities triggered an oil price spike — though not yet a full-blown crisis.
  • “Oil markets have pulled back from their overnight peak; crude oil still up $10.50 a barrel...” (09:37, Mark quoting Patrick DeHaan)
  • Markets roiled: “Dow futures are down...but this is much improved from where we were overnight.” (13:27, Squawk Box clip)
• Trump administration strategy is to restore normalcy to Persian Gulf shipping, encourage tankers to “show some guts,” and reject further Strategic Reserve releases.
  • Trump statement: “These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts. There's nothing to be afraid of. They have no navy. We sunk all their ships.” (11:16, recounting Trump to Kilmeade)
• Energy Sec. Wright:
  • “Missile launches are down 90%. The drone launches are down over 80%. In the relatively near term you're going to see their capacity so low that we'll see more normal ship traffic return...” (12:19, Wright)

Key Takeaway:
The administration projects confidence that any oil price escalation will be brief; political risk is deemed “1.5 to 2” out of 10. But both co-hosts agree longer-term spikes, especially near midterms, could shift this calculus.

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3. Iran's New Supreme Leader: Hardliner Rise

• Iran replaces its slain Supreme Leader with his son, rumored even “harder line” and seen as a hereditary choice that might chafe traditionalists.
  • “He’s a hereditary leader which the Iranians have not been too keen on since the Shah...characterized as a hardliner.” (16:40, Mark)
  • “Very close to Revolutionary Guard...a thumb in our eye with the president out there saying he wants to be involved in picking the next ayatollah.” (17:21, Kevin)
  • “It seems like this guy is more of a hardliner, tougher, meaner, all those things you don't want.” (18:35, Hogan)
• Discussion centers on whether his rule is short-lived (due to Israeli targeting) or whether “hard line” really goes beyond his father.

Key Takeaway:
While a “fight to the end” feels signaled, the regime’s stability is shaky and U.S. partners may see this as an opportune moment for a negotiated end.

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4. U.S.-Israel Relationship: Daylight Emerges

• Mark highlights the perennial challenge of gaining leverage over Israel’s Netanyahu, predicting inherent tension in any attempt to wind down hostilities before Israel’s ultimate aims (regime change) are met.
  • “Not a single president...has enjoyed dealing with the guy [Netanyahu]. He’ll just screw America if he wants to do it. It’s just the truth.” (19:09, Mark)
  • Disagreement surfaces over bombing Iranian energy facilities, with U.S. diplomats and media teasing a “good cop, bad cop” approach, possibly as negotiating theater.
• Sen. Lindsey Graham's public warning to Israel about target selection is noted as a significant sign:
  • “Please be cautious about what targets you select...The oil economy of Iran will be essential...when this regime collapses.” (24:21, Mark quoting Graham)

Key Takeaway:
U.S.-Israel unity is being tested over tactics and end goals, as public signals of divergence emerge.

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5. Civilian Casualties & War PR

• Ongoing investigation into a U.S. “accidental” school bombing; consensus from panel that, while tragic, it’s unlikely to alter U.S. domestic public opinion or Congressional support materially.
  • “I don't know that these types of things...necessarily hurts folks here...Joe Biden bombed a school bus...so I don't really know.” (27:11, Hogan)
  • “I don't think it's going to have the effect...particularly as there's distance from the American people.” (28:17, Kevin)
• Both acknowledge administration likely seeks to delay confirmation until public attention drifts—a common PR tactic.

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6. China & Russia: Watching and Waiting

• Little evidence (so far) of major Russian or Chinese military involvement—their opposition is seen as driven by self-interest (especially oil for China).
  • “Who’s on what side here? Really only three groups against this movement into Iran: Russia, China, and the Democrat Party.” (30:47, Hogan)
  • “China much more...because 45% of China's oil flows through that strait. They have much more reach than Moscow.” (31:42, Kevin)

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7. MAGA/MAGA-Influencer Reaction to War

• Initial vocal pushback from MAGA podcasters/influencers has faded; support among Republicans for Trump’s Iran actions is broad, with the administration treating some right-wing criticism as “loud but not politically worrisome.”
  • “I don't think he has a maga against the war problem now...87, 92% of Republicans support the action.” (33:24, Hogan)
  • “These kind of internal fights, and then just move on. There's just a toughness and a thick skinness to it.” (35:19, Mark)

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8. Congress, Reconciliation, and Shutdowns

• Divided and skeptical panel on chance of a Republican reconciliation bill this year: “10%,” “27.25%,” “Correct answer is 14%.”
• TSA staff shortages and government shutdown pain, but both agree it’s unlikely to force an imminent political breakthrough.
  • “A lot of pain...but I don't know if it's going to last through spring break.” (39:48, Hogan)

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9. Democratic Leader Favorability (NBC News Poll)

• New polling shows unease for Dem future stars:
  • AOC Favorable: 31% (All Voters), 65% (Dems)
  • Kamala Harris: 34% (All), 67% (Dems)
  • Gavin Newsom: 27% (All), 52% (Dems)
• “Are these numbers par for the course or are they...bad?” (42:45, Mark)
  • “They're not good. You wouldn't want them necessarily...going to be difficult to change.” (42:50, Hogan)
  • “It's a little daunting...Gavin has more work to do than even [Kamala].” (42:08, Kevin)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Trump’s strategic calculus:
  • “Donald Trump is keenly aware of the politics...if he gets out real quickly, you have a much broader base of support.” (08:36, Hogan)
• On new Iranian leader:
  • “Iran names Khomeini to succeed his slain father...I laugh at the stories that say he's harder line than his dad. That seems impossible.” (16:40, Mark)
• On U.S.-Israel relations:
  • “Not a single president...enjoyed dealing with the guy [Netanyahu]...He does what he does.” (19:09, Mark)
• On oil and politics:
  • “I think they'll give them some grace in the short term. But if it's a long term play...I think that's going to be more problematic.” (15:57, Kevin)
• On civilian casualties:
  • “It’s a horrible thing...but I don't know that it affects all that much.” (27:53, Hogan)
• On MAGA world’s internal debates:
  • “They can have these intramural fights and then just move on...A toughness and a thick skinnedness.” (35:19, Mark)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• War could end soon? — (07:14-09:37)
• Oil Market Jitters — (09:37-15:55)
• New Iranian Leader Discussion — (16:40-19:37)
• U.S.-Israel Tensions — (19:37-26:15)
• School Bombing PR Impact — (26:27-30:14)
• China/Russia Influence — (30:14-32:42)
• MAGA Reaction to War — (32:42-35:19)
• Congressional Reconciliation Odds — (36:50-39:43)
• Shutdown/TSA lines — (39:48-41:15)
• Democratic Leader Polls — (41:15-43:20)

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Listener Q&A Highlights

• Professor Kennedy’s Birthday: Opens with birthday wishes and insightful questions on Kamala Harris’ 2026 viability and war strategy.
• Professor Kennedy (on Iran):
  • “Going in for two weeks and then saying, ‘we mission accomplished and leaving,’ you're leaving a big void, especially if you don't kill this, this new Khomeini guy.” (48:34-49:07, Professor)
• On why Trump is holding the line on the SAVE bill:
  • “Are you putting something forward to make people take a hard vote so you can say, see they didn't vote for this...or are you trying to get something accomplished?” (54:26, Hogan)

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Takeaways

• The Trump administration may declare the Iran mission over as soon as this week, with limited appetite for full regime change.
• Oil price volatility is acute but believed to be manageable—unless war drags or markets panic.
• The new Iranian supreme leader is received as a hardliner, but regime stability is questioned.
• U.S.-Israel friction is surfacing around military targets and endgame.
• Domestic political reverberations (gas prices, MAGA sentiment, Congressional maneuvering) remain front-of-mind, with midterms looming.
• Democratic leader favorability remains tepid, potentially shaping 2026/2028 races.

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The Morning Meeting continues to serve as a morning “control room,” blending sharp inside reporting, open Q&A, and network-style roundtable analysis. This episode maintains a candid, irreverent tone—balancing urgency (war, prices, politics) with levity and personal rapport among the panelists.

Transcript

[A]

Welcome, everybody. It's a new week. It's the morning meeting here. Hogan Gidley's here, Kevin Walling's here, and you all are here. Part of the conversation. If you want to be part of it and you're here on the platform, please raise your hand. You don't get to do that on most shows. You go on watch Jake Tapper show, say, hey, Jake, I got something I want to say or I want to ask you. He'll just ignore you. Same with Rachel Maddow, though. Just look the other way. Even, even Sean Hannity won't call on you, but we will hear. So if you want to be part of the conversation with Hogan and Kevin, please raise your hand. We'll go through the daybook in a moment and then, as always, we'll be running through everything and there's a lot going on, primarily related to the war. I'll be honest, the war's on our mind. Hold on, I'm trying to fix something here, but you can ask about whatever you want. But I bet we got a lot of questions about the war. I call it a war. And it's just a good three letter word. What is it good for? It's a good shorthand word. And then, and then we'll take your questions after we run through some stuff. So again, if you're on the platform, raise your hand. If you're watching on X or you're watching on YouTube. No smack in the chat. Why just so much smack in the chat last week. Disappointing to me. Just extend the presumption of grace to all. Think about peace, love and understanding.

[B]

Peace, love and understanding.

[A]

Yeah, that's what it's all about. And remember that we're here for you. We're here for you. Be here for us. Ladies and gentlemen, a quick word from a sponsor. Our friends at Cozy Earth. You think Cozy Earth, they sell products to humans, right? Well, if that's what you think, you'd be wrong in the following sense. Most of the feedback I get on Cozy Earth. Now, for people who've gone on cozyearth.com use the promo code morning for 20% off. Most of them, ladies and gentlemen, are here to tell me how much their pets love the bubble cuddle blanket.

[C]

And.

[A]

And here's the latest. Daisy. Daisy's a member of the two way community. Here's Daisy on her bubble cuddle blanket. And you can see if you're watching, if you're listening on the podcast or on Sirius xm, you're missing out. There's Daisy, just beautiful Dog, you run through all the pictures of Daisy. Now, Daisy's owners made a tragic mistake, ladies and gentlemen. They bought the small bubble cuddle blanket. You may not know this, but it comes in two sizes. Don't buy the small, particularly if you got a pup as large as Daisy. Go with the large. Soon enough they'll buy the large and maybe they'll give the small to some puppy. Anyway, go to cozyearth.com promo code morning for 20% off everything the site, including the animalistic bubble cuddle blanket, pants, shoes, I mean no shoes, pants, blankets, towels, etc. But please go buy one something for your dog.

[B]

She is living her best life on that blanket, right? It looks so cool.

[A]

You can just see.

[B]

So comfortable right there with her.

[A]

So, so comfortable.

[D]

I started with one shop. No college degree, no big investors. It was just a willingness to work. Over time, that one shop turned into a multi billion dollar business called Crash Champions. All the lessons I learned along the way came from the grind. And that's what my show Pod Crash is all about. We have real conversations with people who've built things the hard way. We talk to founders, athletes and blue collar leaders who kept going when things got tough. You'll hear stories of grit, leadership and growth. Plus real world lessons you can take back to your team and your life tomorrow.

[A]

When you get momentum, you step on the gas. That's how you get separation from everybody else.

[E]

I was at Harvard Law School.

[B]

I was.

[E]

Blah, blah, blah. I looked up. Let me tell you something. There's kids in my neighborhood putting in Sheetrock that are smarter than you.

[C]

AI is going to disrupt a lot of stuff.

[E]

It is never going to disrupt physical

[A]

blue collar trade skill.

[B]

And the guy just looked at me

[C]

and he said it's bloody impossible.

[E]

So I asked him this question. I said, it's impossible.

[B]

Unless that's.

[D]

Podcast with me, Matt ebert. Watch on YouTube and listen wherever you get your podcasts.

[A]

All right, ladies and gentlemen, your daybook. The president could go on Truth Social at any moment, but in the meantime, he's got executive time that started 8 o'. Clock. He's doing a roundtable at Doral at closed press at 3:30 and then 4:15, 4:35. Rather, the travel pool is going to be covering remarks to members, the Republican House members who are meeting at an issues conference in the ballroom there at Doral. That's going to be quite an event. 435, full coverage of that if it starts on time, at least on two way tonight. We'll talk about that event in just A moment. Don't know what the vice President's up to. The House is out, so we're in part so Republicans can go to their retreat or meeting, whatever you want to call it. The Senate is in. They're doing some confirmation stuff. Today at this hour, France is hosting a video meeting, it starts at 9:30 Eastern with the group of seven to talk about what they could do about the economic fallout and particularly oil prices. So apparently they've all got their own equivalent of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. And they might release some of that video conference led by the heads of the EU with Middle Eastern leaders to talk about the war as well as happening today. This week, that meeting in Florida continues with Republican House members hearing from Hogan's friend James Blair, Hogan's friends Chris Lacveda and Hogan's friend Kevin Assett, all of Hogan's friends down there talking to that group. Armed Services Committee tomorrow, closed briefing on the military operation. Scott Jennings. Hogan's friend Scott Jennings and my friend Ben Shapiro are also speaking at that conference on Wednesday in Florida, Jimmy Kimmel's. Say again.

[E]

I'm friends with Ben.

[A]

I know you are, but really more me. If you ask. If you just ask Ben Shapiro, who are you better friends with, Mark or Hogan? He'd say, well, I like Hogan, but I really like and respect Mark probably at least a little bit more. I think somebody asked him. Somebody go ask him. Just see, he likes you a lot, Hogan. Be clear, we talk about you all the time. I don't know. I actually don't know. Ben Shapiro, Jimmy Kimmel hosts Harrison Ford and Will Fort. Yeah. Stephen Forte.

[B]

Will Forte.

[A]

Will Forte. Him. Yeah. Stephen Colbert, John Michelle Pfeiffer and Jimmy Fallon hosts Uma Thurman. And Sting, you know, Sting lives one door down from me. I see him every so often. All right, here we go, ladies and gentlemen. Yeah, really, let's talk about the.

[B]

Do you know what, Gordon? You know what Sting's real name is? Gordon.

[A]

Gordon, do you know what Elvis Costell Rebels Costell's real name is?

[B]

I don't.

[A]

Declan Patrick McManus. Thought we all knew.

[B]

That's a great name.

[A]

Oh, one more item for the day book, ladies and gentlemen, I almost forgot. Number one, please. It's Charlie Gibson's birthday today, but not the most important birthday to the two way community. With all due respect to Charlie Gibson, ladies and gentlemen, the OG of the two way community, Professor Kennedy, Number one, please. Where's number one? There it is. It's breaking news. It's Professor Kennedy's birthday today. Happy Birthday professor from everyone here at the morning meeting at 2a and the great North American community.

[B]

Look at that graphic. Happy birthday, professor.

[A]

Pretty good. Anyway. Shares a birthday with Charlie Gibson. Pretty good. All right, let's talk about the war, guys.

[E]

All right.

[A]

I'm not predicting the war is going to end in a week, but I'm telling you it might. I'm telling you that the president could decide there's not going to be regime change. They bombed out everything they need to bomb out, and a pause at least to give the Iranians a chance to surrender, and then they could start it back up again. But I believe we may be headed towards a pause by the end of the week. Reporting in Israel, first, Axios reported that Kushner and Witkoff were headed to meet with Netanyahu and then reporting shortly after and a little while ago said, no, they're not going. Now they might be secretly going, I'm not sure. But, Kevin, do you share my view that the war could end in the next week or not?

[B]

I do share that view. And you're also seeing it kind of teased in the language by the Israelis. Right? So you saw the UN Ambassador, the Israel's UN Ambassador and envoy talking about days and not weeks. And I think that is also a clear indication of where they are as well because again, as Trump has said, we're not going to do anything separate from the Israelis. So the fact that you're seeing that change in rhetoric from the more hardlined partner in this effort, I think is also an indication that we're headed to a shorter timeframe here.

[A]

I think Mark Hogan, what's your knowledge of Spidey Sense said, could this thing be over soon?

[E]

I mean, again, I think what they have done is set some benchmarks internally about what they want to do, how they want to go about doing it. And when they check off those boxes, I don't mean to say that flippantly. I mean, war is obviously devastating. But when they check off those boxes, I do believe they're going to find a way to just end everything. And look, Donald Trump is keenly aware of the politics around this. He's also keenly aware of the long standing chaotic nature of the Middle east, too. And to the extent he can do what he wants to do, get accomplished what he wants to get accomplished, and then, you know, kind of make good on a promise and then step back, I think the region will be much better off. But I think also the politics of it is, is good too, because most polls show right and left. If he Does a few things that are significant and they're viewed as generally good and then gets out real quickly. You have a much more broader base of support for those actions than if it should. Should go on longer.

[A]

Yeah. So I mean he would have liked regime change, but if they've destroyed all the targets they want to destroy and if there's not going to be regime change, just stop, you know. Now oil, a lot of cross cutting things here about the price and, and about what could be done about it. I mentioned that the G7 is thinking about releasing it. Here's a tweet just a moment ago from Patrick DeHaan, aka the Gas Buddy guy. Here's his tweet. Good morning. Oil markets have pulled back from their overnight peak. Crude oil still up $10.50 a barrel to $101. This means the national average won't yet head for $4 but 365 to 385 a gallon. Gas prices set to rise first in price cycling markets today. Watch Florida, Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. The lot of speculation will the Democrats want the President to release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The President seems disinclined to do that. Then there's this Karg. Do you guys know what Karg is? Kharg. The island through which almost all the Iranian oil goes.

[B]

The processing. Yep.

[A]

Yeah. There's talk of the unloading onto the tank taking over that. I don't know why we haven't already done that. And then, then there's a Strait of Hormuz. The President's urging ships to just tough it out, go right through. Don't, don't worry about being destroyed by the Iranian drone. Here's what he said to Brian Kilmeade yesterday. He said a similar thing on Truth Social yesterday as well. You can put it up that Kilmeade, you didn't mean to tell you the name of a.

[C]

How do you get that? How do you get the prices down? I know how much you care about oil and gas. And he says tell these tankers to get themselves get to it. We've wiped out most of their launchers. Here's exactly what he said. These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts. There's nothing to be afraid of. They have no navy. We sunk all their ships. He went on to say. He said, look, yeah, there's risk in the region. The region's volatile. They are launchers. There's just about 150 left. That's just about 20% of totals. They can't regenerate, they can't make any more. And we are in the region ready to act quickly on all these type of attacks. Now, I think they're going to get some naval, additional naval assets in there to do some escorting. But there was a tanker that came through last night yesterday. Successful? Yes, successfully, no problem. And he's saying, come on, guys.

[A]

Here's the energy secretary on Sunday television, Mr. Wright saying similar to the President, pretty soon the strait's going to be wide open and oil will move again. Obviously that would take pressure off price. This is Secretary Wright. 109, please.

[C]

All of our military assets right now are focused on ending Iran's ability to kill their neighbors, threaten American soldiers and threaten ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. But that's going swimmingly well. Their missile launches are down 90%. The drone launches are down over 80%. I think in the relatively near term you're going to see their capacity so low that we'll see more normal ship traffic return to the Strait of Hormuz.

[A]

Now, the Wall Street Journal has a story that suggests that the oil, the cascading impact of oil is going to affect everybody around the world. And you do see the Japanese market went down substantially. A lot of concerns in Asia and in Europe about this. This British prime minister had a press conference this morning very concerned about impact on prices. Here's the graphic from the Wall Street Journal. Long feared Persian Gulf oil squeeze is upon us. And the graphic shows just how high price is, although it's not the highest it's ever been, obviously. And here is the opening of squawk box which was big focus on oil prices. Number 113, please.

[F]

And on this Monday morning, as we watch oil prices spike, you are watching futures drop pretty substantially. The Dow futures are down by CL close to 500 points. Although this is much improved from where we were overnight. At one point, the S and P futures now down by 61. I saw down more than 92 points earlier in the trading session. And the NASDAQ in the pre, pre market trading session in the NASDAQ right now down by about 250. And then energy prices, really the focus on all of this, WTI sitting just above $100 a barrel. It's up by about 10%. Again, we saw much higher levels overnight. I saw $111 for WTI. WTI Brent got very near 20, $120 a barrel. You can see at this point it is up by about 12%. $103.80. You'll also also notice that the differential between Brent and WTI has tightened up quite a bit. There used to be a bigger percentage difference between the two. WTI and R Bob Gasoline had their biggest weekly gains ever present, said to

[A]

me, this is not great, but the midterms are months away. The markets are not going crazy. I mean, there's not a collapse.

[E]

Right.

[A]

Oil has not gone crazy and that they're confident that whether the President ends the war or not in the next week, that they're going to get control of the strait and that this is all gonna be fine. And he's just someone who's not a cockeyed optimist. How concerned do you think the President is going today and going forward about energy prices?

[E]

I don't. Look, I think he doesn't want Americans to suffer. That's why he ran again. That's why he wanted to bring those prices down and did so. I do think there's concern. But on a scale of one to ten, I would put it somewhere around a one and a half to two. Only because he knows they're going to come back down. As you just mentioned, we'll handle the straight. We'll kind of reorder the way of things as it relates to who actually relies on Iranian oil versus who now can come to America and get some of ours as well. The market kind of changes around, as you know, the stock market loves certainty and when you have a war going on, they're a little uncertain. But I do think in large measure Donald Trump will get a hold on this. The prices will come back down and still be way lower. And it will remain a very good, substantial talking point for Republicans going into the midterms as well.

[A]

Kevin?

[B]

Yeah, I mean, I think to Hogan's point, it's got to be done in the short term. Right. The American people and we can look over the last 50 years when presidents have said you've got to endure these price increases, you got to take this on for a greater purpose. The cynicism of Americans comes to the forefront where again, as Hogan points out, he campaigned on bringing down these prices. I think they'll give them some grace in the short term. But if it's a long term play, especially heading into those critical summer months where folks are deciding what they're going to do in the midterms that we see in July and August, I think that's going to be more problematic. In that 1 to 2% that Hogan has talked about might tick up to a 7, 8% in terms of anxiety in the administration when it comes to affordability and prices.

[A]

All right, here's what we know about the new Iranian leader. The president told Iran not to pick him and they did. He's a hereditary leader which the Iranians have not been too keen on since the shah. And we know that he's characterized as a hardliner. Here's the Associated Press story. Iran names Khomeini to succeed his slain father's supreme leader. It was announced early Monday as the war began. Since his father was killed two weeks ago, I laugh at the stories that say he's harder line than his dad. That seems impossible. Kevin, what are the implications of his going forward of his ascending to the top job?

[B]

Well, according to some of the obituaries, his dad just loved, you know, classical music and had that bushy beard. So he might be, he might very well be more hardliner, I think. You know, Mark, you actually point out an interesting point that given the history of the Shah, the Shia leadership really doesn't like this hereditary element of passing it down to, to a child. There are notes that he acted at kind of as the de facto chief of staff to his dad, very close to Revolutionary Guard. And again, I think it's also a thumb in our eye with the president out there saying he wants to be involved in picking the next ayatollah. The fact that they move so quickly, again, interestingly enough, they couldn't meet in person the council of Experts to do this. They had to meet virtually on a zoom maybe potentially to pick this guy, which is also an interesting element of this. And you can bet quite a bit that Israel is certainly targeting this guy wherever he's going. So it might be a short presidency for this new ayatollah.

[A]

Okay. Does it matter, does it matter in this scheme of the war or potential settlement that this guy is going to have the job at least for a bit?

[E]

It depends on how much a bit is. But by all accounts, as you chuckled but it seems like this guy is more of a hardliner, tougher, meaner, all those things that you don't want. Donald Trump has made it clear that's not who he wants and who America wants as well. I'm, I think the is there a poly market for the over under on how long this guy is?

[A]

That's a good question. We'll take a look. They seem to maybe shying away from ones that involve killing somebody I think but we'll see killing.

[E]

You can just say how long is

[A]

this person going to remain remain in office? He's not turn he's not term limited, as far as I know know. Let's talk about Israel. I long have said the challenge of every American president on the international front is how to get leverage over Xi, Putin and Netanyahu. Some people don't like my lumping an American ally with two murderous dictators, but Netanyahu is in some ways the toughest of the three to deal with. Not a single president who served with Netanyahu has enjoyed dealing with the guy. And he'll talk a great game in

[B]

public going back, going back to Bill Clinton in the 90s, Mark, to your point.

[A]

Exactly. He'll talk a great game in public and then in pri. And then, and then both in public and private. He'll just screw America if he wants to do it. It's just the truth. And I don't think Bibi, if you were on here today, would object to that characterization. He just, he does what he does. He's very skillful and he's very knowledgeable about American media, about American politics. It was reported, as I said, that Kushner and Witkoff were headed to Israel for a meeting with him tomorrow. They're not going for a face to face meeting to do high fives, folks. Some combination of the Israeli strikes on Iranian energy assets and concerns about ending the war. I think we're propelling them there. But then it was reported they're not going. Now maybe they're going and they just didn't want people to know they're going and so they're not telling the truth. I don't know if they're going or not. Trump didn't interview at the Times of Israel. He said, quote, it'll be a mutual decision with Netanyahu regarding when the war ends. Quote, I think it's mutual a little bit. We've been talking. I'll make a decision at the right time, but everything's going to be taken into account. I have said from the start of this conflict, almost from the first day, that eventually it's almost certain the United States will want to end the war and Israel will not. Because Israel doesn't want to end it till there is regime change. And I think the president's willing to stop far short of that. So, Hogan, first, what do you think happened with the Witkoff Kushner on off thing? What's your speculation about that?

[E]

I don't know if it was a safety thing. I don't know if it was a negotiating tactic. I don't know if they had, they had kind of gotten word through back channels or even directly between Jared and Witkoff and then Netanyahu, that, hey, this is what we're going to talk about. And they just said, no, I don't know. And speculation runs rampant. Of course, my thing is. And look, I've been in rooms with all three of these gentlemen. Both net or all three? You said she, Putin and Netanyahu, wildly different abilities and wildly different partnerships and relationships between those three. Obviously the best.

[A]

Although all three like you quite a bit.

[E]

All three?

[A]

All three.

[B]

More than Ben Shapiro, that's for sure.

[E]

And Ben Shapiro.

[B]

That's true.

[E]

Look, I don't know. I. I think what's been interesting to me is to watch us work in tandem with our only real ally in the region. And you remember one of the reasons we got the Abraham Accords in the first administration was because we were able to get everybody in that area to really recognize the reality that Iran was the world's largest state sponsor of terror. We kind of rallied around the hatred or fear of what Iran could do or would do if pressed. And so I think you're seeing a lot of that now, too, with all these other nations kind of joining up, saying the right things publicly as well. But the partnership with Israel obviously remains strong. I just don't know. You said you think, Mark, that Israel has its own goals in this. America has its own goals in this, and that that makes total sense, because as President Trump always focuses on the American people first. It doesn't mean we do things alone, but I think in this instance, once he gets to achieve the things he's achieved, as I mentioned before, I think he's done.

[A]

Kevin, do you sense that this week could produce more tension than we saw yesterday, again with the reports that the Americans were very unhappy with Israel's choice of bombing energy facilities?

[B]

Yeah. The fact that that's being kind of teased out, too, signifies that I think the administration wants that narrative out there, that kind of almost a good cop, bad cop. We're going to pull back the reins on Israel, targeting not just the oil facilities, but also some of the kind of water desalination facilities and things like that. Things that would, in a normal circumstance. Right. Hurt the regime in power and encourage more folks to topple that regime. But nine days in, we aren't seeing the level of protest. Now, of course, obviously, people are probably afraid to go out based on the targeted attacks that we're seeing, especially in major cities. But the fact that we haven't seen that uprising like we saw starting on December 28th of last year, with people in the streets, led by the merchant class, shows that there's. There's something going on there with, you know, the hardliners back in charge and the people not willing to take. Kind of topple this regime despite these attacks by. By Israel, especially on the kind of the infrastructure in these cities. So that daylight, you know, we love to say there's no daylight between us and the Israelis. The fact that that's being teased out might be for a larger narrative in the coming days and weeks.

[A]

Here's the most telltale sign of all that there's some distance between the United States and Israel. Lindsey Graham is unhappy with the Israelis and taking it public. Here's the senator from South Carolina on X. On 117, please. For Lindsey Graham to publicly warn Israel says a lot. He says, our allies in Israel show amazing capability when it comes to collapsing the murderous regiment. America is most appreciative. However, there will be a day soon that the Iranian people will be in charge of their own fate, not the murderous Ayatollah's regime. In that regard, please be cautious about what targets you select. Our goal is to liberate the Iranian people in a fashion that does not cripple their chances to start a new and better life when this regime collapses. The oil economy of Iran will be essential to that endeavor. Hogan, are you surprised that Senator Graham would do that?

[E]

No, but.

[B]

But a little.

[E]

I mean, look, he's a. He's as much a political animal as he is anything else. I mean, Kevin and I both know him being both being from South Carolina,

[B]

we understand the staying power of this guy is extraordinary.

[E]

It's unbelievable.

[B]

He will keep this seat for as long as he wants it.

[E]

Yeah, I remember I. I was on air at the White House one time, and someone asked me about his aversion to Donald Trump building a wall and stopping the border crossings. And I made a comment, and they called me after and said, you're off the Christmas list, just so you know. But I said, on air, you know, we didn't call him grandesty for nothing. I mean, right. Like, he was booed off stage at the Republican convention in South Carolina because he stood with George W. Bush on letting people in the country.

[A]

Yeah.

[E]

And now he goes to the border, like, every week, and he's like, look at how we've closed the border. Like, you know, the political know how of this guy to see where the people are and kind of get there is really quite extraordinary. I think this is another example of that, where he is a staunch supporter of Israel. He's a staunch supporter of the president, but when something like this happens, he's able to thread a needle, I think, like a few politicians.

[A]

Yeah. All right. A couple more topics we're going to do.

[B]

Don't discount a longtime golf buddy of the president, too. And the four hours they spent on the golf course and the persuasion that goes on and the conversations that go on with the commander in chief.

[A]

Wall Street Journal story about that, documenting the critical role Graham played and taking the president where he ended up. A few more topics we'll do relatively quickly. Please raise your hand if you want in on the conversation. The school bombing, Secretary Hagsett said on 60 Minutes last night what the administration has said, which is still under investigation, where according to the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the evidence suggests that the United States inadvertently struck a school, causing tragic loss of civilian life, including a lot of kids, allegedly. Does it matter from the PR point of view? Does it matter in Iran? Does it matter for the United States if the United States did do this, does it have an impact on the ability to pursue the war? Could it turn public opinion against the United States or not?

[E]

Hogan, look, it's a bad thing, don't get me wrong, but the investigation will play out and we'll know more, hopefully sooner rather than later. I don't know that these types of things, largely because it is, it happens in a far away place, necessarily hurts folks here. It'll be a cause celeb for some people. But look, I mean, Joe Biden bombed a school bus and told us it was all full of terrorists, only to find out it was a family. So I don't really know. It was something we talked about a lot. I don't know that it permeates throughout the entire, you know, political American milieu, if you will. But still, I, I don't know. I mean, again, it's a horrible thing.

[A]

Yeah.

[E]

If it was a failure in the United States, if there was a mistake made, you could make somebody the face of it. Like it could be a Pete Hegseth person who is to blame. You know, they're going to try to blame. That could gain some steam. But other than that, I, I don't know that it affects all that much.

[A]

Kevin, do you think the Democrats will talk about this as, as an indication of that the war was mistaken?

[B]

I, I don't think so. These kind of awful tragedies and mistakes happen. I think the school was, was by a military target. And unfortunately this, this happened. I think, to Hogan's point, there is some distance from the American people and this situation and, and the fact that, you know, Iran is not a responsible media thing, you know, in terms of actually releasing this kind of information and stuff like that. So everything obviously has to be taken with a grain of salt. Not to delegitimize the, the tragedy around the school, but I don't think it's going to have the effect that we, we saw the imagery of the transfer in Dover. I think that has more of an effect when we see those flag draped coffins throughout history with regards to, you know, the public support of a war or any kind of foreign entanglements that we've seen going back to Vietnam.

[A]

Am I too cynical to say that the reason that the administration is saying it's under investigation is they hope to just delay acknowledging what happened until people have moved on? Is that too cynical or that's what's happening?

[B]

I think that that's likely the case. I mean, indications are it was a Tomahawk missile. Those are within our armaments. And I think just putting a little bit more daylight, I think from that to, you know, you know, might be the strategy that the administration is employing. Mark, to your point?

[A]

Yeah, Hogan, that's correct. Right. They're stalling to take the, to take the pain out of what would have to be acknowledged. Is that correct or too cynical?

[E]

I don't know if they're stalling, but I mean, I think they're trying to figure out what happened. Like you said, it shouldn't be too

[B]

hard to figure out.

[A]

New York, New York Times figured it out. We have a lot of intelligence. We have an incredibly sophisticated ability to micro target these missiles. It'd be hard to think that the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal figured it out before the federal government, but that's what they're claiming. China and Russia.

[E]

Well, let's see, hold on. The federal government's notoriously slow and bad and the New York Times is notoriously incorrect. So whatever.

[A]

Okay, we'll see. Russia reported Russia was helping the Iranians target. That's been played down by the president and other administration officials. China hates the wars like this because it's disrupting their access to energy and they just don't like uncertainty in general. The administration continues to play down the role of those two countries and it's not really clear exactly where things stand. Are, are either of you worried about Russia and China influencing this conflict in a way adverse the interest of the United States, or you think they'll mostly be staying out of it?

[E]

Hogan, I mean, I don't know if they're going to impact it one way or the other. I just remind people that when I take a look at these, you know, global issues, you often ask yourself, who is on this? Who's on what side here? And really only three groups against this movement into Iran were Russia, China, and the Democrat Party. Other than that, everyone else seems to kind of be on the same page here. So, you know, I don't know that they get impacted all that much other than the fact that I think it hurts their economy greatly because they were doing so much business with Iran through oil markets and other things. So I think it's a really crippling move, really shrewd move by this administration to do this because it really does hurt our biggest global threats.

[A]

Kevin, are you worried about China and or Russia?

[B]

I'm worried about China, yeah. I'm more worried about China and what they will do just because they have, frankly, more reach, more resources than the Russians do. Certainly. Again, 20% of the world's oil flows through the strait, but 45% of China's oil flows through that strait. So it's impacting, to Hogan's point, China much more, and they have much more of a reach and much more capabilities than does Moscow at this point. Just because of the, you know, going on year five of this war with Ukraine. They've been, you know, degraded. And again, too, let's also not forget the situation with Venezuela, again, a key partner to these two axis of evil countries that we've seen you take Iran off the map, not, not just on the oil front, but also on the arms supply front for Russia. Again, I think one of the most wonderful stories coming out of this fact is that we've captured all these Iranian Dr. And then reverse engineered them and now are using them to take on the regime. And the Ukrainians are helping us do that. Something that we should not forget at all in this situation. Who's on our side and who's not?

[A]

All right, MAGA media, podcasters and influencers, first week of the war. The press loves covering any story that involves MAGA criticizing the president. We saw that on Epstein. We saw it last week on the war. Some of the people who've been critical became less critical. Megyn Kelly, for instance, was critical in the beginning, but now says it's underway and important to support America's military. What's going on this week, Hogan? Would you expect this storyline to still be a storyline or the press will move on and people won't be as critical in other Words President this week going forward still have a Magas against the war problem.

[E]

I don't think he has a magazine against the war problem now.

[A]

I mean, MAGA influencers against the.

[E]

Okay, well, I mean, like what, 87, 92% of Republicans support the action. So it's a very small group, but they are quite vocal and they do have large followings.

[A]

Yeah, but is that a problem? Do you think the White House is thinking we got to reach out to people who are critical? No.

[E]

No.

[A]

Okay. Kevin, is this a problem for the Hogan?

[B]

Hogan, you know this world way better than I do. I love your thoughts on the jd, the Vice president angle on all this too. Right? I mean, so these, a lot of these folks are key to him, right? In his rise. You downplayed the administration, but, you know, he's kind of been behind the scenes, I think. Is he having conversations with these folks too, you think, in terms of keeping them within the tent?

[E]

I mean, look, they're obviously friends. I mean, he talked to them in the lead up too, and a lot of them were influencing the President to help pick JD as well. This is, I think, going to be, if I'm predicting the future here. I think this, like, these relationships, this criticism, whether they be proxies for JD's mentality or not, I think JD is in lockstep with the President. He's doing a great job out there articulating the vision on TV as any good vice president should and would. What's interesting to me is I think this little piece though, this foreign intervention stuff, stuff could be the wedge where people who once thought about getting in the presidential race in 2028 were like, hold on, JD's clearly got the inside track. He's the Vice President Trump likes a Maga likes and etc. This is one of those issues that divides enough of the base where you could see Marco Rubio, Sarah Sanders, you know, many others go, hold on, Ted Cruz.

[B]

I think Ted, I think Ted Cruz is running no matter what.

[E]

This is where I'm stepping in here because I can't handle, you know, I'm gonna try and say what MAGA is. Is this not what.

[A]

Yeah, here's a, here's a funny, here's a funny tweet that a lot of people in MAGA are laughing at. And thing about maga, they can have these intramural fights and then just move on. Like, there's just a, there's just a, A, a toughness and a, a thick skinness to attack your longtime ally in personal terms. And then the next day, it's all over the place. This tweet's funny 127 and as I said, Maga Mag is laughing at this tweet, even though in theory it could outrage them. The US spent 20 years and trillions of dollars. Replace the Taliban with the Taliban. Trump replaced Ayatollah Khamenei with Ayatollah KHAMENEI in just nine days, the most efficient U.S. president ever. All right, two more topics then to your questions and comments and concerns or three more topics. Reconciliation. Incredible story in Politico about how at this House Republican meeting, they're once again they're talking about reconciliation. Once again, the White House is deeply skeptical. Once again, if you ask the people who want to do another reconciliation bill this year, what should be in it, you'll get 102 different answers about what it should be. Should it be health care, should it be Pentagon spending, Should it be taxes? Now, the one thing, and I've been my sources have guided me to be deeply skeptical that there'll be another reconciliation bill. The one thing in this political story that makes me think there might be is the Ways and Means chairman Jason Smith, who has been the leading voice in saying this ain't happening, shows some softness. First time I've seen him say anything in public that suggests this could happen. He says he doesn't see a pathway forward, but maybe, quote, maybe people can prove me wrong. Kevin, what is the percent chance Republicans try to pass a reconciliation bill?

[B]

Yeah, I don't think Hogan knows and is closer to the Speaker. We've talked about this before. I don't doubt the speaker in close situations where the vote is on the line and he needs to rally support. I don't think they actually try for something in an election year only to come up to fail. So if they try for this.

[A]

Yes. What percent chance?

[B]

0% that they try for this. If they don't think they actually have the votes.

[A]

And again, what's the percent chance that they've that speaker and the White House and Senator th strategize and say we're going to try to move a reconciliation bill. What's the percentage?

[E]

10%.

[B]

10%.

[A]

Hogan. Hogan.

[E]

27.25%.

[A]

The correct answer is 14%. 14%.

[B]

Somewhere in between.

[A]

Somewhere in between DHS lines, TSA lines. Yeah.

[E]

Can I say something real quick about this reconciliation thing?

[A]

Because of course, about this situation, you

[E]

do you remember how difficult it was to get the first reconciliation over the

[A]

life defying, death defying.

[B]

Right.

[E]

And everyone Said it couldn't happen. Yeah, but it did happen. So I caused people to say this isn't gonna happen.

[A]

It could.

[E]

But more than that, they took largely pieces of legislation that were the most popular and put them into a bill the least controversial and said, here's the one big, beautiful bill. Tax cuts, no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security. All these things. Then what's left over are things that are quite divisive and quite concerning to so many members. And so the thought process of doing another reconciliation are very difficult and very daunting. However, my argument has long been the argument should follow this track, which is we were so bad off under Biden, we passed these great bills that now made you way better off. But we're not done. Here are the things we're going to do. And the thing is, coming out of this meeting in Doral, I think they've got to have a good handle on. Here's now what we're going to do to sell that not just a record of success, but here's something else we're going to do. And I don't know if that's going to happen.

[A]

The speaker has been all over the place. Your friend, the speaker, he does like you more than he likes me. He's been all over the place. And whether there should be a reconciliation bill or not, that's going to be fast.

[B]

And he's the one driving. And he's the one driving this train. You know, in terms of indications that the speaker actually wants us and not all of the leadership team is on board thus far.

[A]

TSA lines in New Orleans and Houston this week were just. The weekend were crazy. Here's the headline from cnbc. TSA staff shortages lead to hours long security lines at some airports. Houston Hobby told travelers to arrive up to five hours early. Five hours early, Hogan, will this break the gridlock and force a deal or just a lot of pain for people going on spring break?

[E]

A lot of pain. But. But I don't know if it's going to last through spring break. Listen, for the life of me and Kevin, you, You. I wish you would tell me why, but I don't understand the mentality that they're going to shut down the American government for the third time to protect the legal aliens. It blows my mind.

[A]

Well, that's not why. That's not why they say they're doing it, Hogan.

[C]

They are.

[B]

Yeah, that's not.

[E]

Yeah, I know. That's why they're. Yeah, of course that's not what.

[B]

They're.

[E]

They're not going to say that, but of course they're doing it.

[A]

Kevin is shut down. Is the shutdown go end partial shutdown going to end because the TSA lines are now.

[B]

I think, I think it's going to end more because of the replacement of Christian Omen at the top. Right. Even though Leader Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries that that's not enough. But again, I think that is somewhat of an olive branch from this administration and they've just got to come. And again, we've talked about this Mark too. The polling is still very much in favor of the Democrats position. When you've got 51% of Americans not saying ICE needs to be reformed and this is not my position, but it should be abolished, including one in four Republicans. Right. That's only going to continue to embolden the Democrats to say we want these actual reforms at dhs. And again, we'll see what happens with the administration replacing, you know, Christy Noem. And again, he wants Mark Wayne Mullen in that position by the end of this month. That's going to factor in really closely with the any kind of nomination hearing, obviously before the Homeland Security Committee in the Senate.

[A]

Totally true. All right, lastly here put up this poll. This from the NBC News poll came out over the weekend. They did the favorable unfavorable rating of three top Democrats, 126. Guys, I'm just curious if you were working for any of these three politicians and you saw these numbers and your boss said, hey, is that okay? Is that good enough? What would you tell them? AOC her favorable amongst all voters, 31%. Her favorability with Democrats, positive feelings about her 65%. Kamala Harris favorable with all voters 34% Democrats 67%. Gavin Newsom favorable with all voters 27%. All voters or Democratic votes, 52%. Kevin, if you worked for these three, what would you tell them about these numbers? Good. Good. Enough sour mood. Fine. Or this is like a little daunting.

[B]

It's a little daunting, right? Again, you know, 51 unfaith, you know, again, comparing to the the president and job approval. Okay. Compare me to the Almighty, not to the alternative. Reverse that. But again, I think, you know, your conversation with Gavin Newsom from last week is so illustrative of his current situation. And he's out there saying people have, you know, Newsome derangement syndrome, which you see in that number at 46, which is the highest compared to Kamala Harris, who actually is more well known than the governor of California. So you know, I think Gavin has some more work to do than even the former vice president on this front.

[A]

Hogan, are these numbers par for the course or are they. They bad?

[E]

I mean, they're not good. You wouldn't want them necessarily. But, you know, when you're comparing them to the field, my bigger question is if I'm helping them with strategies to find out why they sit, where they sit, what those underlying thoughts are, and then try and do everything I could between now and election time to change those with various events and speeches, et cetera, et cetera. But you know, these people are so well known within the Democrat party at this point, that's going to be a little difficult maybe to do.

[A]

Yeah. All right, quick word from a sponsor and then to your questions, raise your hand, please. One of our sponsors wants to give you money. There's no catch to this. There's no strings attached. If you shop at gas stations, if you shop at restaurants, if you shop at supermarkets, the folks from Upside want to give you free money back. There's no catch here, folks. I keep saying it's a free app. You use it for free. It doesn't impact how many points you get on your credit card. You just pay the way you normally pay. It connects you with personalized cash back offers at those three places. Gas stations, supermarkets, and grocery stores. Just go right now. Download the Upside app, use the promo code Mark. And in addition to getting cash back on every one of these purchases, you'll get an extra 25% back for every gallon you buy with your first tank of gas. And of course, with prices the way they are, I would just give it a try, folks, just once, to see on your first tank of gas. And use the promo code, Mark. Get the extra money back and see how easy it is to use it. You just open the app, claim the offer, pay with your card like normal, and you get cash back. It works very easily and it shows you where the places around you are that take Upside. So go to Upside right now on your phone. Download it. Free app. Use the promo code Mark4X for 25% off.

[B]

This is it.

[G]

The world as you know it is over. Completely done. It's not about to be over. It's over.

[A]

Some of the scientists who helped build AI are now sounding the alarm.

[E]

I was selling AI as a great

[A]

thing for decades and I was wrong. I was wrong. There is a longer term existential threat that will arise when we create digital

[G]

beings that are more intelligent than ourselves. We have no idea whether we can

[C]

stay in control while Others say that

[A]

AI will usher in unfathomable abundance.

[E]

I've always believed that it's going to be the most important invention that humanity will ever.

[B]

This really will be a world of abundance.

[A]

And among these fears and these fantasies, we seek the story of our future. Listen to the last invention on Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, ladies and gentlemen, time for your questions and comments. As always, come on in on mute. Tell us where you are, what's on your mind, and we could start nowhere else but America's leading birthday boy. Professor Kenny, happy birthday. Thank you for being part of Two Way. The floor is yours, sir.

[G]

Thank you, Mark. Thank you, two Way Community. Everybody's been very generous. Mark, you've always been generous to me and thank you so much. So, a couple of things. You bringing up Kamala. I think Kamala is going to be the Democratic nod. I really do. I think that she's going to come out of this whole mess as the lead Democrat. That's just an opinion, but I've been analyzing and I just don't see any other Democrats coming ahead. But there's one caveat to that, and that's all the word salad stuff. If she can correct that, I think she'll come out. She'll come out ahead.

[A]

Hold on. Let's respond on that. There's a story in Politico today by Jonathan Martin that says with a few exceptions, most Democrats are very skeptical that she'll run and very skeptical if she run. If she runs, she'll win. So it's, it's, it's not a. Yours is not a consensus view, Kevin, how do you rate her chances currently?

[B]

Listen, I think she's act. She's keeping her options open. Right. She engaged in the Texas primary. She's raising money, she's hiring staff. Professor, to your point, I think she did way better, even though coming up short in the general election than she did in the primary. Let's not forget she dropped out, you know, before even the Iowa votes were counted because of an inability to run an effective campaign for the Democratic primary. But the one thing she has really going for her. Professor, to your point, backbone of my party, Black women. Right. And she's got strong support within that community. And I think that would be one of the key reasons to stay in this race and actually do it.

[E]

She literally called Joe Biden a segregationist and a sex criminal from the debate stage.

[B]

And then we get over that. Just like MAGA world gets over that, too.

[E]

T shirts made even by the way, and still didn't make it work. Yeah, listen, I think Professor Kennedy, happy birthday. And I think she's got a shot, because she does. She is well known, but that's also her problem. And the word salad stuff, you just mentioned the caveat. She's already given like two interviews about her book that have turned into word salads and have been horrible. So I think when she talks, it's a jarring reminder of how bad of a candidate she actually is. And I don't know that she can go the distance. To your other point, though, who, who surges? There's always somebody. There's always somebody who's going to surge and catch fire to some degree at the right time and have the votes to get it done. Don't know who that's going to be, but they'll get somebody.

[A]

Don't worry.

[B]

They'll meet the moment.

[A]

Professor, before you jump back in, just everybody, 10:30 this morning, the vice president speaking to the firefighters meeting in Washington. So we'll hear from the vice president. Maybe he'll talk about Iraq at 10:30. Professor, comments on the Harris, I want

[G]

to talk about Iran real quick. So I'm a, I'm a hawk. I was in the Marine Corps. I just think when you do an operation like this, you got to go, you got to press gas until you finish off the operation. I think going in for two weeks and then saying, we mission accomplished and leaving, you're leaving a big void, especially if you don't kill this, this new Khomeini guy. I think we should be taking Carg island and then negotiating from that strength. If we don't do that, I don't, I really don't know what the success of this mission is, gentlemen.

[A]

I mean, it's, professor, let me ask you, Professor.

[G]

Yes.

[A]

If they administration says we've destroyed their missile capability, we've destroyed their navy, we've, we've set their nuclear program way back, we don't think they've got the command and control or wherewithal to do terror anytime soon. In terms of terror networks, Israel's hit Hezbollah and, you know, it's up to the Iranian people. If they want regime change, Godspeed. Is that not a good enough result for you?

[G]

Well, that's, that's the, that's the Trump line. That's it. We talked about that on the post shows, right? We were like, Trump's going to do what he's going to do for four weeks and then he's going to declare victory. He's destroyed Everything. And, but we're still leaving the bad regime in charge, and that's the problem.

[A]

Yeah, but you can't, you can't, you can't dictate regime change.

[G]

No, it's 92 million people in Iran. It's very hard.

[E]

Yeah, yeah. It's, it's up to them. But understand, too, professor, you are, you know, you served. Thank you for your service. You've done a great job, obviously, for this country. Your bravery, you understand this type of thing down to the, to the, the single bullet fired, right? Something's going on here. The single bullet fired. Most people don't. What they will see is, as Mark said, we got in there, we got rid of the, the leadership, we sank the navy, we got rid of their capability to fire ballistic missiles, and now they can't do terrorist terrorism all over the world with their proxies. If that's the case, most people are going to go, yeah, that's good. Good thing they're not going to say, wait a minute, wait a minute, why didn't they take over the island? And then, you know, use that for, you see, I'm saying, so, like, I get your point and it's a good one. I'm just saying, understand, the public writ large is not going to have that level of detailed, intimate knowledge that you,

[G]

Brian, holding when you, when you play this game. Sorry, Kev. When you play this game, though, you, Politics has got to go to the back seat when it comes to military operations. All right? And, and the big problem I see here is you're also leaving the door open now for China and to Russia to reset. They see what we've done and they've stayed out of it, and now they see that what they can do, their opportunities and stuff. So this is not. If we don't see it through, it's bad.

[E]

Yeah. And if he had, if President Trump had made those comments to the people of Iran and said, hey, keep fighting, we're coming to help, and then didn't go help, you would see today, I believe, a much more aggressive China in Taiwan, for example, because remember when Joe Biden said, ah, small incursion in Ukraine's fine, what did Russia do? They're like, yep, we'll take that door, thank you very much. And now we're still dealing with his mess. So when the world sees you as weak, the cascading effect of aggression that follows from other nations into other places is quite extensive, dangerous and damaging long term. So at the very least, as you just point out, this show of force I think does deter, at least momentarily. Now, how it finishes matters, too, but how it started has been pretty good.

[B]

Kevin, I only want to add, and I question for the professor and Hogan, how much of a factor is, you know, the president, going back 15, 20 years, has always talked about George W. Bush and Iran and boots on the ground and the fear of that. And again, he campaigned on that on the stage, you know, next to Jeb Bush. I wonder how much of that still is that. You know, the president has shifted positions on a lot of different things, knowing where the American people are. He's a populist and he's effective on that front, but he's still, you know, Pete Hegseth in 60 minutes yesterday, yesterday said this is not a mission accomplished thing with George W. Bush. So that is still a focal point within the president's mind and senior leadership. I wonder how much of that is still at play, whether it's a boots on the ground situation or if they soften their language in terms of what the actual goals of this effort are.

[G]

Yeah, if you want to take Car island, you're going to need to put boots on the ground. So he doesn't want to do that. Then what are we going to do, you know?

[A]

Professor, thank you.

[G]

Happy birthday. Thank you.

[B]

Happy birthday, Professor.

[G]

Yeah.

[A]

All right, Chris Taylor, welcome in. Tell folks who don't know where you are and what's on your mind for Kevin and for Hogan.

[B]

Hey, you can hear me.

[A]

Yes, sir.

[B]

Excellent. So Northern Idaho sun is not here yet.

[A]

I just a quick question about Trump's

[B]

tweet that said he doesn't want to

[G]

sign anything else until the save.

[A]

Yeah. Bill is before him. Yeah. What's your take?

[B]

Like, what's going on there? You know, all caps, though. In all caps, no less.

[A]

That, you know, we didn't put that on the topic list because this is so complicated. It would have taken half the show. But we'll do it now. The president's, you know, he could, he could, he could back down because the often does, he bluffs and backs down, but he's saying, don't pass. I won't. He won't sign anything else into law until they move this. Even if John Thune wanted to do this, I don't think he could get the votes to do it. And it's even more complicated because the president's outcomplicated the legislation. So, Hogan, what's the president doing when even John Barrasso basically says, in effect, we can't get this done, Mr. President, the way you want what's the President actually hoping happens here?

[E]

But listen, they're in my little short time in Congress, I know a lot of people in the two way community understand this. There's a legislative exercise and then there's a not legislative exercise, a more political exercise. So are you putting something forward to make people take a hard vote so you can say, see they didn't vote for this, or see they voted for this or whatever. Are you trying to get something accomplished? It is very obvious this administration, and quite frankly, a majority of the American people want to say that pass. They want to force people to show picture identification to prove you are who you say you are when you cast a ballot, when we have to do it for a bajillion other things in this country. What's interesting, though, is at a time when they just refuse to take it up in the Senate, because I think the House of Representatives struggles from a nomenclature problem, which is everyone says, why won't Congress do something? As you know, you can call the House of Representatives Congress, you can't refer. People don't refer to the Senate as Congress. They just assume it's the House of Representatives. We at the House side have passed it three times at this point. The Senate has not taken it up. Donald Trump upped the ante and decided, all right, here's another one that's popular. I'm going to throw that into the mix, too. And then if it passes as it should, we're going to have great policy. If it doesn't, it's going to expose Democrats again for not wanting voter ID to vote.

[A]

And but Hogan, it's also going to expose Republicans for being at odds with the President because they don't want to get rid of the filibuster to pass it.

[E]

Well, it's, I think it's less about that because they would if it was an easy vote for all of those Republicans. Some of them are in blue states, some of them are in blue districts. So Congress, both Thune and Johnson have an issue. Where do I make a member who's in a difficult spot take a vote that would hurt that person in the election, thus jeopardizing our control of the House or the Senate. That's to me, the biggest problem.

[A]

But, but some, but some of it are against it, not because the politics of their state or their district, but because they don't want to get rid of the filibuster.

[E]

Right, but that's a. But that's the difficulty of it, the complexity. There's a whole nother issue do you want to get rid of the filibuster and should you do the talking? Filibuster as opposed to the sleeping filibuster. Whatever. These are the things that are the most difficult and I don't know that you're right, Mark. I don't think thin wants to run it, even though he said he's going to. And I don't know. I know he doesn't have the votes to do it.

[A]

Kevin, this obviously, as Chris's question suggested, this puts Republicans in a tough position because. Because Thune doesn't want to go against the president, but he has no choice on this because he doesn't have the votes. Are Democrats put in a tough position on this or they're just popcorn eating bystanders?

[B]

I think they're taking a little bit of a backstage to this. I think there's some method to the president's madness. Not that I'm in a position to defend the president, but I think what you're seeing right, is good party politics for him. Ken Paxton has said I will drop out if you push for the SAVE Act. He's going, so the president's out there going strong on this, wanting to get this done. He can then say, okay, Thune is the issue. We're not going to get. It can drop out. I need Cornyn in and I will do a lot of this through executive action right before the midterms. Leave it enough time for the courts not to necessarily get involved and challenge it. So I think it's a little bit of chess that's going on with this administration for him to be so far out when he knows Thune, who campaigned for that leadership position, saying he's not going to keep, he's not going to change any of the current Senate rules. His hands are tied. So I think it's more of a messaging strategy to the MAGA hard right base and the Ken Paxtons of this world than it is to actually getting something done. But that's a really good question, Chris. At the Mark's point, we could talk about this the entire show in terms of those dynamics.

[A]

I really don't think there's a chance the president's going to get his way today. I don't see any chance he's going to get his way. And so it's a strange thing to be pressing. And it's the same with same with Paxton says only drop out if he gets his way. You know, it's like, it's like saying, it's like saying, unless you ate the Empire State Building. I'm not going to drop out of the race. Well, I can't eat the Empire State Building. You can ask me 100 times to eat the Empire State Building. Can't do it.

[E]

Yeah. But there's a little bit different.

[B]

But does it get far enough to say that I tried my hardest. I'm out there pushing.

[A]

I don't think so. This looks bad. He fights with Thune for weeks and then nobody gets anything they want. Thune would like to pass the bill, but he doesn't have the votes to pass the bill.

[E]

Yeah. And I think the president, look, all these guys are so big and bad and tough until the president starts going after them directly. And then all of a sudden they cave quicker than you've seen. They'll just do it because they're afraid.

[A]

But it's not. It's not the. Thune won't cave. It said he can't get the votes if not soon.

[E]

I'm saying if President Trump goes after some of these other senators and you start to see pressure on these other senators.

[B]

Right.

[E]

Then it becomes a problem because as you know, as I learned at my one of my classes at Ole Miss, the distinguished university, that it is.

[B]

Yeah.

[E]

The one goal of all these people, the one goal is to get reelected, period.

[B]

Yeah.

[E]

How do they get reelected?

[A]

I'm less cynical. Chris, thank you for the question. Great topic. I'm sure we'll talk about it more tonight on two way tonight, five o', clock, amongst my guest, Hogan's friend Elizabeth Pipko, there's another person who likes Hogan more. You don't know her. All right. She likes me.

[B]

I've been on. Elizabeth is great. I've been with her on Airport.

[A]

So five o', clock, full coverage. Full coverage of the war. And if the president starts on time, we'll have some coverage of his remarks in Florida to the House Republicans. Seven o' clock tonight, Lifelong with Ethan Supley as guests, Astrid Naranjo, AKA Astrid the Fit Dietitian. Again, Lifelong is a program that allows you to be part of an authentic community that cares about physical fitness, real health, real community. No bs. Ethan's just a phenomenon. Great communicator and a great actor and someone who really wants to help spread the gospel of living a healthier life. So join lifelong at 7 o' clock tonight and then tomorrow. This program's back on in about 23 hours. Kevin will be back. Larry will be here, Larry o', Connor, and we'll run through all the day's news and appreciate everybody's participation. Gentlemen, grateful to you both. Gonna end a little bit early because I'm headed over to Sirius XM radio, channel 111 for the second hour of the morning meeting. If you've got SiriusXM, come join me. If you don't subscribe today and join second hour of the morning meeting, 10 o' clock Eastern Time, Monday through Friday, right after this program here on two way, we roll right in to the second hour. Gentlemen. Thank you both. Good to see you.

[B]

Thanks everybody. Happy birthday again. Professor. Great to see everybody.

[A]

Bye bye.

[B]

That.