The Morning Meeting – Episode Summary

Date: January 9, 2026
Host: Mark Halperin (2WAY), with panelists Kevin Walling, Larry O’Connor
Key Episode Themes:

• Unrest in Iran and speculation about regime change
• Tensions in Minnesota following an ICE-involved shooting and political/legal fallout
• US domestic politics: Supreme Court tariffs case, Hill votes, Fed chair rumors, and dynamics heading into 2028
• Shifts in Russia/Ukraine conflict and US global policy (including Venezuela)
• Listener Q&A on housing, stock trading reforms, and “sanctuary cities”

Overview

This episode of "The Morning Meeting" delivers a rapid-fire analysis of the day's top political and world news stories as viewed by insiders. The central themes are turmoil in Iran—with potential repercussions for the regime—and continued friction in Minnesota over a controversial ICE shooting. The panel weighs political strategies, legal ramifications, and global power plays, while making room for audience engagement on issues ranging from housing policy to campaign prospects for 2028.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US Political Daybook: Presidential Schedule, Economic Numbers, and Pending Decisions

• President's schedule is closed to the press except for meetings with Secretary Rubio and energy sector execs regarding Venezuela, followed by a trip to Palm Beach.
• Awaiting Supreme Court tariff decision—speculation over potential market reaction and court splits (possible Roberts/Barrett defection).
• John Thune and Republican senators at the southern border as immigration continues to dominate headlines.
• Unemployment figures: 50,000 new jobs in December; unemployment dips to 4.4%. Numbers are decent but underwhelming (“not great. They’re not horrible.” —Mark, [05:41]).

2. Minnesota: ICE Shooting, Protest Fallout, and Political Maneuvering

• Ongoing uncertainty about investigations: tough path for federal or state prosecution. Most think the Trump DOJ won’t indict the ICE agent ([08:07]).
• Disagreement over federal vs. state investigative roles; expectation that state may try but feds will seek to move/toss the case ([08:50]).
• PR war is ongoing: Minnesota Democratic officials viewed as weak in media strategy. The panel suggests focusing on calls for federal-state collaboration to boost transparency (“there is a moral argument to be made for that collaboration…” —Kevin, [11:05]).
• Explores potential for the incident to shape national dialogue and preview 2028 politics, especially with a Democrat potentially stepping up to urge protesters to nonviolence (“Now is the time to stand down, stop with the direct actions… The national figure who says that I think really has a chance in 28.” —Larry, [14:16]).
• “Winners/Losers” dynamics: Amy Klobuchar surprisingly absent from the news cycle, despite her standing in-state ([16:10]).

3. Iran: Protests and Possibility of Regime Change

• Unfolding, massive protests: panelists transfixed by coverage and the regime’s move to cut off the internet (“Never a good sign when the regime is cutting off Internet” —Kevin, [18:11]).
• Escalation noted as protesters openly call for death to the Ayatollah; government buildings are burning ([18:35]).
• “Blew my mind. Absolutely blew my mind.” —Larry, referring to images from Tehran, [17:50].

4. Russia/Ukraine: Supersonic Missile Use and Stalled Negotiations

• Russia's use of nuclear-capable, supersonic missile described as alarming; viewed as response to Western security guarantees and troop offers ([20:05]).
• Ceasefire prediction market gives only 45% chance for any agreement in 2026.
• General consensus: No deal likely; Russia appears unwilling with foreign troops on Ukrainian soil ([20:41]).
• “Trump hates that stuff when he sees innocent people… women and children. That actually affects him.” —Kevin, [21:42].
• Discussion of the US seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker in the presence of Russian subs—possible signal to Putin, and evidence of Russia’s marginalized status ([22:09]).

5. Venezuela & International Spheres of Influence

• President’s meeting with Venezuelan opposition figure Machado. Panel speculates about her potential as US-backed leader and about Trump seeking a “Nobel Prize” moment ([23:21]).
• Ongoing theme: US moves in Venezuela as a potential piece in the US–Russia/China power chessboard.

6. US Domestic Politics: Tariffs, The Fed, and Congressional Dynamics

• Supreme Court pending tariffs decision—high market and political stakes, but timeline uncertain ([04:11]).
• Debate about the next Fed Chair—Kevin Hassett vs. the field. Betting odds and insider insights offered, with several panelists favoring Hassett ([26:35]).
• House/Senate relationship with Trump: Despite defections, no grand “rebellion” on Capitol Hill; panel rates Republican “rebellion” at “five” out of ten ([29:56]).
• Analysis of recent NYT Trump interview: Much bluster, little lasting significance ([30:47]).

7. 2028 Democratic Primary Preview: Newsom vs. Shapiro

• Audio excerpts from Newsom and Shapiro speeches dissected.
• GOP strategist Jeff Roe on Shapiro: “Democrats would have a really hard time with a white guy and let alone a Jewish white guy. …I think that he's our worst nightmare [general], and the least likely of the top contenders…to make it through.” ([35:57])
• Panel split: Larry compares Shapiro to Scott Walker (“wasn’t the right moment”), while Kevin argues Democratic base is pragmatic and Shapiro might well break through ([37:40]).

8. Senate 2026: Dems’ “Path to Four”

• Panel’s “best analysis” of Dems’ four top seat pickup opportunities: North Carolina, Maine, Ohio (Sherrod Brown), and at-large in Alaska (Mary Peltola) ([39:56]).
• Skepticism remains about success; Larry: “That's why it's not going to happen because North Carolina and Maine are going state Republic and probably Ohio will as well.” ([40:20])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This could be a sister soldier moment for Klobuchar.” — Larry, speculating on Amy Klobuchar’s possible role ([16:42])
• “I'm transfixed on these videos... Yesterday's images from Tehran blew my mind. Absolutely blew my mind.” — Larry ([17:50])
• “First time I've seen signs that say 'Death to the Ayatollah.'” — Kevin ([18:11])
• “It’s a PR war on. ... Democrats and the governor should focus on that and getting to the bottom of this; hopefully some cooler heads will prevail. Not this debate over whether she was murdered or killed or what have you.” — Kevin ([11:05])
• “If fraud ends more careers, it’s a good thing. The American people hate this kind of stuff.” —Kevin ([59:17])
• Winner of the week: “Marco Rubio is having his moment.” — Larry ([41:57])
• Loser of the week: “Tim Walz is the loser of the week.” — Larry ([42:43])
• “I just cannot believe… Trump said this in the New York Times. …Everything in that interview, literally all two hours is like, he’ll say whatever he’ll say. …There’s no meaning to any of this.” — Mark ([30:47])

Audience Q&A Highlights

• Housing Policy/Corporate Ownership (Lance, [44:33]): Discussion on Trump’s proposal to limit corporate ownership of single-family homes. Larry supports the proposal, calling it “the right side of this one,” while Kevin warns against a blunt ban, stressing the policy needs nuance.
• Stock Trading Reform “Pelosi Act” ([45:29]): Skepticism over whether Congress will ever meaningfully restrict stock trading among its members; “They always find a way to get around it.” — Larry ([47:37])
• Sanctuary Cities and Federalism (Bob, [51:04]): Comparison to civil rights era; Larry and Kevin reflect on federalism tension and suggest the need for Democrats to rethink sanctuary policies or risk more conflict.
• Venezuela & Spheres of Influence (Mallory, [55:55]): Listeners draw connections between US moves in Venezuela and signals to Russia/China. Kevin and Larry see spheres-of-influence debate at play; Larry doubts Trump is playing “three-dimensional chess” privately.
• Consequences for Fraud (Mike, [58:50]): Fraud (especially with federal funds) is a bipartisan political killer with likely more fallout to come.

Important Timestamps

• Minnesota PR/legal crisis: [08:07] – [16:42]
• Iran protests analysis: [17:07] – [18:46]
• Russia/Ukraine escalation: [20:05] – [22:47]
• Venezuela/US diplomacy: [22:47] – [23:59]
• 2028 Democratic primary debate: [32:07] – [38:56]
• Senate 2026 “path to four”: [39:24] – [40:26]
• Audience Q&A housings/stocks: [44:33] – [48:03]
• Discussion on fraud & consequences: [58:50] – [60:44]

Tone and Style

The conversation is fast-paced, insiderish, and often sardonic. Panelists are forthright about strategic realities in politics, media narratives, and the limits of White House/political messaging. Listeners chime in with practical and sometimes wonky policy questions, which the hosts answer with both seriousness and wit.

Visit Takeaways

For listeners who missed the episode:

• Massive developments in Iran could signal regime change; panelists are riveted but cautious.
• ICE shooting in Minnesota underscores tensions between federal and state law enforcement; PR battle and legal gamesmanship predicted to continue.
• The Russia/Ukraine front remains unpredictable; Russia's use of advanced missiles and US actions in Venezuela are seen as strategic signaling.
• The US political sphere is full of jostling: Supreme Court and Fed appointments, shifting House/Senate allegiances, and 2028 primary undercurrents.
• Robust, occasionally fractious Q&A underscores overt discontent with big-money politics, congressional stock trading, and affordable housing crises.
• If you want to sound informed on Twitter (or at the office), this is the 45-minute morning catch-up you need!