Is Chuck Schumer in Trouble? Graham Platner's Replacement Troy Jackson Won't Support Him for Leader

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Morning Meeting Episode: "Is Chuck Schumer in Trouble? Graham Platner's Replacement Troy Jackson Won't Support Him for Leader"
Date: July 22, 2026
Host: Mark Halperin with co-hosts Larry, Kevin, and guest participants

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Overview

This episode dives into the rapidly unfolding political landscape ahead of the midterms, with a special focus on the Senate contest in Maine. Mark and his co-hosts analyze Troy Jackson’s ascendance following Graham Platner’s dramatic exit, the potential rift with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and the broader implications for Democratic and Republican strategies across key Senate and gubernatorial races. The episode also covers breaking developments on U.S.-Iran policy, fallout from voter registration controversies in New Jersey, and shifting alliances around Saudi-U.S. nuclear deals.

The tone throughout the episode is lively, irreverent, and candid, combining sharp political analysis with newsroom banter.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Maine Senate Race: The Jackson-Schumer Divide

• Troy Jackson’s Campaign and Message

  • Jackson is being "coronated" as the Democratic candidate to challenge longtime GOP Senator Susan Collins, buoyed by local support and a message that positions Collins as out-of-touch and aligned with Trump and “big corporations.”
    • Jackson (audio, 10:04):
      "For 30 years, Susan Collins has told us that she's concerned... But when the stakes are the absolute highest, too often she stood with Donald Trump, Mitch McConnell and the other big corporations that already have all the power. Maine does not need six more years of concern. We need courage, we need a fighter, and we need someone who remembers exactly who sent them to Washington."
  • Jackson is critical of establishment power and expresses deep skepticism towards Chuck Schumer and national Democratic organizations. He implies he’d only accept support with “no strings attached.”
    • Jackson quoted by Mark (13:06):
      "If his help comes absolutely no strings, I would say, you know, possibly—there'd have to be no strings."

• Why Is Schumer Keeping His Distance?

  • Schumer is reluctant to publicly back Jackson, primarily for three reasons:

    1. Opposition Research Concerns: Rumors persist that damaging stories about Jackson are "coming soon."
    2. Fundraising Doubts: Jackson has little connection to big donors and previously struggled to raise funds, while Collins is expected to have an ample war chest ($12M+).
    3. Ideological Risk: Jackson supports abolishing ICE and other uncompromising progressive positions, potentially putting colleagues in other swing states in a difficult spot.
       • Mark (13:45):
         "Chuck Schumer doesn't want to have a senate candidate ... asked, 'do you agree with your nominee in Maine, in one of your targeted races, to abolish ICE?' He doesn't want any part of that."

  • Prediction: Despite all of this, co-hosts agree Schumer will likely end up funding Jackson’s race heavily—because the path to Senate control runs through Maine.

    • Kevin (14:10):
      "He is going to fund the hell out of that race...this is now a coronation and you better believe there's going to be a ton of money coming into Maine from D.C. Democrats."
    • Larry (15:13):
      "He wants power. He wants to win."

• General Election Dynamics

  • Debate over whether abolishing ICE is a winning message in Maine.
    • Mark (16:45):
      "Is being for the abolition of ICE a positive in the general election in Maine, yes or no?"
    • Uncertain: While the progressive base is energized after a recent ICE controversy, the impact with swing voters is unclear.

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2. Senate Control: The National Map

• Current Democratic Pathways
  • Assuming Dems win in Michigan (Stevens), Georgia (Ossoff), and if Sununu in NH loses, they would still need to flip seats in at least two of the following: North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, or Texas.
    • Mark (18:19):
      "Democrats would need to win two of three of Alaska, Iowa and Texas. That's what it comes down to."
    • Kevin and Larry agree: Texas seen as the hardest nut to crack; Alaska and Iowa are more likely pickups.

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3. Republican and Democratic Primary Fallout

• Texas: Ken Paxton has consolidated GOP support post-Cornyn, with fundraising and Trumpworld backing overcoming initial establishment concerns.

  • Larry (20:06):
    "The establishment and the money are getting behind Paxton...if he's well-funded, he shouldn't lose in a red state like that."

• Arizona: MAGA-aligned Andy Biggs achieved a landslide primary victory for governor, setting up a toss-up general against Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs.

  • Ellen Douglas (56:49):
    "Biggs winning so bigly is a reflection of where voters are at—they just want someone who can support the MAGA talking points versus think for yourself."
  • Kevin (22:42):
    "Katie Hobbs. Incumbent. Without Trump on the ballot at the top, Katie Hobbs."
  • Larry (21:36):
    "This is a test case for Turning Point USA's ground game...watch that space, because I think Katie Hobbs is in real danger."

• Ohio & North Carolina: Both considered challenging for Democrats, but if one flips, the focus turns to the harder targets.

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4. Iran Escalation and the Effect on Domestic Politics

• New U.S. Policy & Congressional Tensions

  • The President has declared a new tit-for-tat policy on Truth Social: any Iranian attack on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will result in U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure.
    • Mark (01:52):
      "Anytime the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship...the United States will bomb and destroy one bridge or power plant, including those located next to or in the capital city of Tehran."

• Capitol Hill Reactions

  • Senator Tom Cotton advocates for overwhelming force; Marco Rubio calls for seriousness in talks.
  • Growing Democratic strategy: tie Iran conflict and resulting gas price spikes to the Republican agenda and midterm messaging.
    • Iowa Dem candidate Turek (35:37):
      "Everywhere I'm going...people are telling me that they're struggling just to keep food on the table...now with this unnecessary war in Iran, we're looking at being able to afford gas."

• White House Options

  • Three paths: escalate, declare victory and withdraw, or a limited blockade to ensure shipping lanes.
    • Larry (36:24):
      "The president has three options: all in with increasing our military campaign...all out...or hunker down and do the blockade."

• Emotional Impact

  • The day’s somber ceremony at Dover AFB, receiving fallen service members, is expected to influence the President's resolve and potential escalation.
    • Kevin (38:44):
      "When he sees those caskets...that will actually have more of an impact on the direction of the war...than anything else."

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5. Other Major Storylines

NJ Voter Registration Mishap & the SAVE Act

• The Issue: A software problem led to non-citizens being registered to vote. While numbers are small, Republicans are amplifying the story in support of restrictive voter eligibility bills.
  • Larry (25:24):
    "This will absolutely support the argument and actually might even turn one or two Republicans who have been reluctant..."
• Consensus: The panel agrees it will likely prompt further investigation and provide ammunition for legislative fights, especially the SAVE (Safeguard American Voter Eligibility) Act.

U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal

• Controversial Potential: Debated heavily by listeners and hosts. Some applaud close monitoring, others question the wisdom of further trusting the Saudi regime.
  • Ellen Douglas (49:13):
    "Are we out of our minds or what? I mean, come on, what are we thinking here?"
  • Larry (51:01):
    "I want to know more about it...if you cooperate with the West, you can have civilian nuclear power...but I'm not sure I buy it."

J.D. Vance: Elite GOP Divisions

• Elite Pushback: NYT’s Bret Stephens calls Vice President Vance "by far the worst person ever to hold the office," ranking him below Aaron Burr and Spiro Agnew.
  • Mark reads Stephens (29:04):
    "The truth that the current Vice President is by far the worst person ever to hold the office. Move over Aaron Burr...Spiro Agnew."
• Class Politics: Larry thinks much of the criticism is "gross classist" snobbery within the GOP.
  • Larry (29:56):
    "It's this old bastion of country club types who don't like the fact that J.D. Vance has invaded the club..."

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Chuck Schumer and Power:
  "He wants power. He wants to win." – Larry (15:13)
• On the Democratic Path:
  "Democrats would need to win two of three of Alaska, Iowa and Texas. That's what it comes down to." – Mark (18:29)
• On U.S. Foreign Policy Response:
  "If the Iranians fire at a ship...we’re going to destroy a bridge or something, maybe even near Tehran." – Mark (33:35)
• On Iran Policy Affecting Domestic Races:
  "The President is getting a lot of that feedback right now, especially as it pertains to the gas prices." – Larry (47:05)
• On Party Hypocrisy:
  "They're hypocrites." – Larry (15:29)

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Important Segments with Timestamps

• Maine Senate Race and Schumer-Jackson Rift: [09:41–17:19]
• Senate Map Math, Path to Control: [17:19–19:39]
• Texas GOP Consolidation (Paxton and Cruz): [19:45–20:22]
• Arizona Governor’s Race & Down-Ballot Impact: [21:21–22:55], [55:33–61:04]
• Election Integrity/Voter Registration Flap: [23:42–25:58]
• U.S.-Iran Escalation and Options: [33:35–38:47], [45:12–48:44]
• J.D. Vance, Elite Politics, and GOP Identity: [27:00–32:23]
• Saudi Nuclear Deal Debate: [49:01–51:31]
• Open Q&A with Listeners on Arizona and National Races: [52:08–61:04]

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Concluding Thoughts

• The episode spotlights a shifting electoral map where anti-establishment energy on both sides destabilizes traditional party machinery.
• Troy Jackson’s open defiance of Schumer, coupled with grassroots momentum and high-profile progressive policy stances, poses a real challenge for Democratic leadership—both in Maine and nationally.
• Republicans are consolidating but face their own divides, especially as Trump and his administration’s foreign policy choices (notably on Iran and Saudi Arabia) increasingly drive midterm dynamics.
• Down-ballot governor and attorney general races, especially in Arizona, are critical, both for immediate policy outcomes and for shaping the landscape ahead of 2028.

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For Listeners:
This episode offers a whirlwind tour of the inside baseball shaping the 2026 midterms—with plenty of unscripted opinion, breaking news, and deep dives into candidate personalities, policy dilemmas, and political strategies. Recommended for political junkies seeking both context and color.

Transcript

[Mark]

We did News Nation and Larry didn't know that during the breaks they show the studio and we were all on a big monitor and Larry was dancing, which Kevin and I thought he was doing because he knew he was being shown. But it turns out America was being treated to the, the.

[Kevin]

It's the only News Nation show where ratings went up during the commercial break.

[Larry]

Absolutely.

[Kevin]

Because people were tuning in.

[Larry]

Pain, you guys, because, you know, we

[Kevin]

go to a break, it was entertaining.

[Larry]

You're looking at your phone. So I was trying to dist you. And what's the point of a break if you're keeping everybody on camera so that the world can see you, that is. And shouldn't they tell us that There

[Mark]

was a, there was a. Well, if you ever watched, you broke my rule. Only be on shows you've watched. There's a, there's a, there was a period in television where every producer and executive's idea was for like new media content was, oh, we'll show the breaks. And a number of hosts were like, no, actually we're not going to show the breaks. And it's during the break when I need to venture. Thank you for being here for some

[Kevin]

of the chat who said they're sorry they missed it. Larry might be my winner of the week and we might pay.

[Mark]

Play that footage.

[Kevin]

We got two days.

[Mark]

Don't worry, ladies and gentlemen, that that footage will surface.

[Larry]

Don't worry.

[Kevin]

Let's play that bean footage.

[Mark]

Thank you for being here. This is the morning meeting, the two way morning meeting. Larry, Kevin and I are going to run through the day with you, eager to have your participation. As it says on the sleeve of my fairway and green shirt, no smack in the chat. And please participate in a way. We've, we've had some great new people participating on this show in the evening show last couple weeks and we love it, we love hearing from you. So please raise your hand to be part of it. And the daybook is, is forthcoming. And Larry, I put Maine at the end of the rundown today. I mean, not Maine. I put Iran around the end of the rundown. So we're going to. We'll spend as much time on Iran as we have left. So if you don't want to talk about Iran at all, Larry, just filibuster your way through the rest of it.

[Larry]

I love talking about it when there's something to talk about.

[Mark]

Yeah, well, there is today. There is. There's news, there's new news. Is the president on truth Social? See president posting. Let's see from this point forward, anytime the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by missile, rocket, drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy one bridge or power plant, including those located next to or in the capital city of Tehran. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Ladies and gentlemen, there's some news on Iran and pretty news of a new policy. One for one, if they.

[Larry]

If they.

[Mark]

If a kid with a slingshot shoots at a ship, we'll see if the captains who refuse to go through the straight are heartened by this. That's interesting news. All right, we'll get back to that. Let me run through the day book. Is there anything I need to do before we run through the daybook? I'm having just another brain freeze.

[Kevin]

Are you. Are you getting asked for more restaurant recommendations across the country?

[Mark]

I dispatch that the President has a travel day today. He's currently in the Oval on executive time. He heads to Dover Air Force Base later today. Solemn ceremony attending the dignified transfer of the remains, I assume, of three Americans.

[Kevin]

I think it's four. I think it's four from what I saw. Yeah.

[Mark]

Okay, so four Americans. And don't know if he'll speak there or not or speak on departure or not. He goes straight from Dover to Marietta, Georgia, where he's speaking at one of my favorite high schools, Wheeler High. I don't know if you guys have ever been to Wheeler High in Marietta, but it's a. Well, I've never been there either. Anyway, three o', clock, Wheeler High. Fox is touting that they're going to take that live. This is just a campaign trip. And eager, everybody's eager to see what he says about his two candidates for his party for governor and Senate, and of course, about John Ossoff and the former mayor of Atlanta, Kevin's friend, Keisha Lance Bottoms. Thank you. I was. I always get her name slightly wrong.

[Kevin]

Keisha Lance, former senior White House advisor in the Biden administration, too. That's right.

[Mark]

Engagement after a three o' clock speech. He's back at the White House by the end of the day. Vice president still on Buttigieg style. Maternity paternity leave. Marco Rubio is still in Manila and spoke at least twice since we last visited together. So we'll play for you some of his conversations, including about Iran. Busy day on Capitol Hill as Speaker Johnson and Leader Thune continue to try to get on the same page. They're doing a lot of complex stuff regarding reconciliation and continuing resolution and. Yeah. And other things. And it's. They haven't, they haven't figured it out. They've not figured it out in either chamber yet for sure. Although the House may pass some stuff today, but they certainly haven't figured out between the parties.

[Larry]

Not since Jim Wright and Robert Byrd has there been this complex of coagulation of those two were masters. Right.

[Mark]

With the possible exception of when George Mitchell dined alone.

[Kevin]

That's right.

[Mark]

Mike Waltz, Move over.

[Kevin]

Thomas Jefferson Yeah.

[Mark]

Mike Waltz, House Foreign Affairs Committee, talking about the UN at 10.

[Larry]

That'll be firing.

[Mark]

Yes. Jameson Greer, do you think he, do

[Kevin]

you think he pushes for the FIFA head to take over the UN as the President has suggested?

[Mark]

I think he's on board for that. Jameson Greer, it's the most trumpy personnel aspiration of all time. Jameson Greer, US Trade Rep. Amidst conversations about not just the Canadian tariffs that the President's threatening, but a bunch of tariffs expire on Friday and people are wondering what the President's going to do to extend those. 10:00am Jameson Greer before Senate Finance on the President's trade agenda that'll be watched by a million lobbyists. I can tell you that the Senate's continue to vote on confirmations. Jim Banks, Senator Jim Banks, who won his Senate seat more easily than anyone's ever won a Senate seat.

[Kevin]

He walked right into it.

[Mark]

Didn't have a nomination fight. No. No competition in general. Nice guy, Jim Banks. He's bringing Indy car drivers to the Senate GOP steering lunch to talk about the thing next month. America 250 IndyCar Grand P. Kevin, if you can't get us a debate, the South Carolina debate, I would like to have some role at the indie thing. Yeah.

[Kevin]

In the streets of Washington D.C. like we. Yeah.

[Larry]

Alex's best friend Meredith would very much like tickets to the Grand Prix.

[Mark]

Yeah. So Kevin.

[Kevin]

I'm on it.

[Mark]

Pencil and write that down. House Foreign Affairs Committee hears from two former US Ambassadors to Israel, David Friedman and Daniel Shapiro, to talk about the Abraham Accords. I say Abraham just like the President does. That's a two o' clock. House votes on legislation on the defense policy bill this afternoon. And Chuck Schumer is going to try to pass by unanimous consent a bill that would say the Pentagon can't spend money to upgrade the President's Qatar gift of an Air Force One. Is that going to pass? Why is Chuck Schumer doing that? Just to embarrass the Republicans?

[Larry]

Yes.

[Kevin]

Yeah, I think so.

[Mark]

And then Mr. Maduro is doing court today at noon for the latest hearing in his case and we think he'll be there in person, not, not virtually

[Kevin]

in that same jumpsuit. Do we think Mark and Larry?

[Mark]

I think he likes the jumpsuit. Stock futures down. Oil rose. Gas is up to 406. Larry. 17 cents in a week. S P 500 second quarter earnings up 46.1% from last year. All right, quick word, quick word from a sponsor and then we're going to talk about Maine. And gentlemen, you'll be happy to know I've got a new theory about what's going on in Maine which I'm going to roll out right for you in a moment. Okay? USAFax is an organization founded by Steve Ballmer. They're our partners and they're trying to get help from the community here. We don't ask you for much and we want to demonstrate here that when the morning meeting says student body right, the two way community moves to the right. So we're asking you to accept the challenge of going on USAFacts.org right now and signing an open letter that they want to present to the government at the end of the month to say make government data more accessible, release it more quickly so our public policy debates can be better informed. We're having all these debates now about war spending, about immigration, about voter registration. The federal government with our tax dollars collects a lot of data and then they take a long time to release it. USA Facts is going to tell the government no. What we'd like to do is get better information, faster for better decisions, better and more informed debate. It's simple and again, it's a personal challenge for me if you're part of our community. As I said, we don't ask you for much. We're asking you to sign the open letter. Go take a look at it. You'll see it's, there's nothing controversial about it. It's just a good public policy ask. Click on the Pink [e-mail], add your name to the open letter. We're trying to get 100,000 of you to sign up by the end of the month. If you haven't done it yet, I'd ask you to go take the time to do it. Thank you for your attention to that matter.

[Eric Gertler]

From the State House to the courthouse, in the emergency room and in the classroom, Americans are losing trust in their leaders. In a 2025 and World Report survey, 85% of Americans said government leaders care more about their own power than the people they serve. 73% are disappointed in healthcare leaders, 72% in business and 68% in education. But there are still leaders worth believing in. I'm Eric Gertler, CEO and executive chairman of U.S. news World Report. This is the Best Leaders podcast sponsored by the Noble Reach Foundation. On this show, we'll go deeper into the stories, challenges and lessons of extraordinary leaders across public service, business, healthcare and education. You can find the Best Leaders podcast from U.S. news World Report on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Mark]

Let's talk about Maine. Things seem to be going pretty well for Mr. Jackson. He's being coordinated at this weekend. He's receiving support from a lot of folks in the state and he's got a rousing message. Here is Mr. Jackson in beautiful Maine talking about his opponent, Susan Collins. 104 please.

[Kevin]

For 30 years, Susan Collins has told

[Mark]

us that she's concerned. She told us that she's troubled and she's told us that she's disappointed. I'm all those things, Governor. But when the stakes are the absolute highest, too often she stood with Donald Trump, Mitch McConnell and the other big corporations that already have all the power. Maine does not need six more years of concern. We need courage, we need a fighter,

[Kevin]

and we need someone who remembers exactly

[Mark]

who sent them to Washington. Now, Susan, Susan Collins is in the news this week, but on three issues that aren't much help to her. The the ICE shooting, the terrorists, which hurt Maine quite a bit, and the Iran war, where she shared a hearing yesterday. Things seems to be going pretty well for Mr. Jackson, gentlemen, don't they? Well, here's one person not too pleased, Chuck Schumer. This week, Senator Schumer was asked if he supported Jackson and he said, he said, we'll beat Susan Collins. And yesterday, Jackson did an interview at the New York Times that's raised a lot of eyebrows. He was asked, do you support Chuck Schumer? He said the Democratic Party needs to have a different approach, getting people back in the party, getting working class, everyday people back in the party. And I don't believe it's going to happen with Senator Schumer. So they don't seem to be supportive of each other. Now, why is Senator Schumer not supportive of the, the almost certain nominee of his party? Number one, he hears what I hear. Every time I say on this program that there's going to be more opposition research out about Jackson, I get a call or an email or a text from a Republican operative who says, mark, how do you know that? Yeah. Yes, you're right. It's coming soon, number one. Number two, here's the guy's attitude about fundraising. This is what Platner Jackson in his remarks in the New York Times that haven't gotten as much attention, but trust me, Chuck Schumer read this. Here's what Mr. Jackson said about whether he'd accept support from Senator Schumer and the DSCC and their super pac. He says, I'm reading this verbatim. I know some of you are going to think this is made up, but it's not. I'd have to find out what that entailed. Mr. Jackson said, I mean, if he, if his help comes, absolutely no strings, I would say, you know, possibly there'd have to be no strings. Mr. Jackson, a former president of the main Senate has few ties to big donors. Chuck Schumer knows that and raised just 1.2 million in his unsuccessful campaign for governor. A Senate campaign in Maine would cost many times that amount. Quote, you know, Susan's got $12 million, I got $12. I'm hopeful that, you know, we're going to tell this story about what we want, what we're going to be fighting for and people are going to come on board. So Chuck Schumer finds this guy, I would say, a little lacking in the level of sophistication and being realistic about what it takes to beat Susan Collins, who's going to have 10 millions, tens of millions, including the super PAC. But ladies and gentlemen, here is, I believe, the undercovered reason why Chuck Schumer wants no part of Mr. Jackson. Look at his website on his policy page, a bunch of stuff that's kind of standard issue. Democratic positions on different things. End the genocide in Gaza. That's not totally uncontroversial, but that's pretty standard these days. Protect the right to organize civil rights. Congress can't trade stocks. Oh, dismantle and abolish ice. Chuck Schumer doesn't want to have a senate candidate to Mr. Cooper and Mr. Brown and he hopes Ms. Stevens are not asked, do you agree with your nominee in Maine in one of your targeted races to abolish ice? He doesn't. He doesn't want any part of that. Kevin, after Saturday, with that lead in after Saturday, is Chuck Schumer going to embrace and fund a Democratic nominee who knows nothing about what it takes to raise money and who supports abolishing ICE right there on his website.

[Kevin]

He is going to fund the hell out of that race. And seriously, you know, yes, 100%. 100%. And you know, Jackson knows just how toxic Washington's involvement is in these Senate races when they come in and they try and big dog things. You're seeing that obviously play out in Michigan where you're seeing such a revolt from a number of Democratic primary voters. This guy's running the race he needs to win in Maine on the heels of an ICE shooting of an unarmed person that wasn't the target of an operation. So there's a lot of energy there and he's campaigning the right way. This is now a coronation and you better believe there's going to be a ton of money coming into Maine from D.C. democrats.

[Mark]

Did we swap in Bill de Blasio for Kevin Walling this morning? Wow. Larry o'. Connor.

[Kevin]

I'm surprised we're going to win that.

[Mark]

I do think I do.

[Kevin]

Three points up in the latest poll.

[Mark]

We'll take it. I think he's going to have to fund it. But Larry, how can, how does Chuck Schumer going to explain one of his marquee candidates supporting the abolishment of ice?

[Larry]

Because he wants power. He wants to win.

[Mark]

I mean, what's he going to say when he's.

[Larry]

He was supporting with a Nazi tattoo, for God's sake.

[Mark]

But not, but not strenuously. I mean, he was, he was, he was. Said the same thing. He said, we'll beat Susan Collins. I mean, is he. Are people going to campaign with him?

[Larry]

I, Mark, I love that much of our program ends up being me, little old former theater manager and radio host educating you about politicians. Mark, they're hypocrites.

[Kevin]

But.

[Mark]

Well, no, but, but it's not a question of being hypocritical. It's a question of kind of how. Well, no, I mean, I understand he wants to win, but I believe his judgment is the guy can't raise any money. And even though ICE is, He will raise.

[Kevin]

If he's gonna turn on the spigots. Just get ready for the grassroots once it's official against Susan Collins. All right. Yeah.

[Larry]

If the past of the majority goes through Maine, he's going to fund it. And by the way, people shouldn't Forget Graham Platner's 11 minute, sort of narcissistic, egotistical video that he put out when he said he was dropping out of the race. Yeah, he wasn't dropping out because of the accusations against him, because he denied those accusations. He dropped out because D.C. and the party, the money train money was not going to come.

[Mark]

Yeah, that's why he dropped out.

[Kevin]

I wanted to see Chuck Schumer's channeling his inner Nancy Pelosi. Just win, baby. You got to say you're not going to vote for me for majority leader.

[Mark]

Of course, I agree with that. He's fine with that. But, but I, I think the guy saying, what does no strings attached mean? What does it mean?

[Larry]

It's me.

[Mark]

All right.

[Larry]

Because there are plenty of strings attached.

[Mark]

Is being for the abolition of ICE a positive in the general election in Maine, yes or no? Kevin?

[Kevin]

I, I think, I don't know. Honestly, I. We got to see how this plays out with and I, I know you don't like that answer with that shooting and how that plays out because again, there's a lot of energy right now and, and very positive hurt on the ground.

[Ellen Douglas]

I.

[Larry]

Positive because his challenge is to be Platner without being Platner. And so he's stealing all of Platner stuff without the baggage he claims.

[Mark]

Right.

[Larry]

And so I think it will, it will feed the beast of that base.

[Mark]

Let's talk. Let's talk brass tacks quickly on the Senate map overall, let's assume for the sake of argument that Democrats get Stevens. By the way, there's another story today that shows that Chuck Schumer's keeping his fingerprints off this, but they are orchestrating the Stevens victory with fueled by the black vote. You look at Playbook today, all these people like Mr. Clyburn and others doing interviews. So let's assume Stevens is the nominee and Stevens wins. Let's assume Ossoff wins. Let's assume John Sununu loses. So Democrats hold their three contested seats. They need to net four. And let's assume for the sake of argument that my instincts are right about Mr. Jackson and he's not going to be able to beat Collins. Let's assume that's true. They need to net 4. Right. Let's give them North Carolina. Let's give them Ohio, although I don't think that's a done deal. Senate control. If I'm right about all this pushing as you can, I don't feel dogmatic about it. But let's say these are right. Democrats would need to win two of three of Alaska, Iowa and Texas. That's what it comes down to. They got to win two or three of those to gain control under that scenario. Larry, I know you think, I know you'll probably say the Democrats would lose them all, but which of those two are the most likely?

[Larry]

Accepting your premise for the sake of argument, Alaska and Iowa are going to be easier for them to win than Texas.

[Kevin]

Amen agreement.

[Mark]

So that's it. Ladies and gentlemen, Larry and Kevin and I all agree. And everyone I talked to about this yesterday in both parties, everyone agrees that's the path. And just to be clear, unless you're a believer in Texas or Maine, and that's it, people are going to try to mystify this for you and say there's all sorts of scenarios. And there are. If some of these pushes turn out not to be true, but. But if these pushes turn out to be true, and I would bet on all of them right now, there's one path they have to sweep. North Carolina, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio. And that's it. That's it. So if you think that they can't win one of those four, you can tell John Thuney and keep his office.

[Kevin]

And I will say giving us Ohio is an uphill climb, too.

[Mark]

I mean, yes, it is.

[Kevin]

North Carolina is a done deal. Ohio might be even tougher than Alaska or Iowa.

[Mark]

It might be. It might be. But. But the reason I say that is it's got a weak Republican candidate and a pretty strong Democratic candidate.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Mark]

Okay.

[Larry]

You know, considering Maine is the. Of all those states you just laid out, Maine's the only one that consistently has voted blue in president in the

[Mark]

Kamala and the Kamala Harris 100 years.

[Larry]

It's remarkable that you guys. I mean, I still think Jackson has a chance, frankly.

[Kevin]

But, Larry, what, what's going on with Ken Paxton down at. He seems to be.

[Mark]

Sorry, just to be clear, Jackson has a chance. I'm not saying he absolutely can't win. I just wouldn't bet on. Go ahead.

[Kevin]

It seems, it seems like Ken Paxton is like, he's jetting off on vacation. He had this press conference with a

[Mark]

bunch of sheriffs and he's raising money. He's raising money.

[Kevin]

He's raising the money. Okay.

[Mark]

He's turned the corner on raising money

[Larry]

with Ted Cruz, I'm told. Yeah, those fundraising, remember the fundraising numbers that were reported that looked scary. A lot of that was during the runoff process with Cornyn. Now people are coalescing behind Paxton. It's not the, the Cornyn split that everybody warned about how Cornyn's people weren't getting. No.

[Mark]

Yes.

[Larry]

It's. They're there.

[Kevin]

They're getting in line.

[Mark]

They didn't, they didn't knock out Talarico with the early round of ads, which I thought they might because those were so devastating. They didn't knock him out. But, but the, the establishment and the money are getting behind Paxton. And if he's well funded. He shouldn't lose in a red state like that.

[Larry]

Jasmine Crockett's doing more work against telo right now on our behalf.

[Mark]

Actually, the headline out of the the Arizona results yesterday, the president's endorsed candidates all won and there was a Democratic incumbent House member challenged by a progressive. He won easily. There was another race where the DSCC candidate lost, but the nominee they got I think is pretty good. So that's it doesn't put that. That's it. They're two targeted seats in May in Arizona up. The big thing I want you guys to address, you can address any of the other results you want, you know, going forward, not looking back, is a Mr. Biggs, Congressman Biggs beat his House colleagues to run against the incumbent Democratic governor. We talked, we talked yesterday.

[Kevin]

Massive margin too. It was like 70% or something like that.

[Mark]

We talked yesterday about how important these governors races are because if Arizona has a Democratic governor, that has huge implications for 28. So guys, how do you, how do you think Biggs will do in a general election?

[Larry]

I think he's got a real chance that, that this I said yesterday this is a test case For Turning Point USA's ground game that they've invested in in Arizona. They wanted to win this for Charlie and they came through so strong. And those kids are going to continue to knock on doors. Watch that space because I think that Katie Hobbs is then, let's face it, Katie, she didn't win by a huge margin.

[Mark]

She did four years ago. Is Katie Hobbs considered a successful governor? Kevin, has she got a good record?

[Kevin]

If you, if you look at her, popular in state? She is. I mean she's kind of like a. No, nonsense. I've met her a number of times back. I think she was secretary of state at one point or so. She's not super in your face impressive. Kind of. We know a lot of Arizona personalities over the years that are large than life. But she's doing the work. She's passing these budgets. She's working with Republicans on some things, vetoing some other things. So she's actually, you know, and she got Cindy McCain's endorsement. And let's also not forget there's a lot of internal drama still with the Arizona Republic.

[Mark]

Absolutely, absolutely.

[Kevin]

Who's the favorite splits on John McCain.

[Mark]

Kevin.

[Kevin]

And things like that.

[Mark]

Who's the favorite in that race, Kevin?

[Kevin]

Katie Hobbs. Incoming.

[Mark]

Larry.

[Kevin]

Without, without Trump on the ballot at the top. Katie Hobbs.

[Larry]

I would, I would call it a toss up right now. I want to see how, how Biggs does in the first round of polls and his fundraising.

[Mark]

Okay.

[Kevin]

I mean, that margin was extraordinary in the primary.

[Mark]

If you want to get down in the minutiae of the possibility of a government shutdown, go talk to Jake Sherman. We're going to stay high level here. Again, there's a, there's a lot of mismatch between how John Thune wants to handle it. Basically, the House wants to avoid a government shutdown through reconciliation and not try to get any Democratic votes. And Thune wants to try negotiating with the Democrats, which would, which would open up a whole can of worms. But there's a reason he wants to do it. Yes or no, Larry? Mary o', Connor, government shut down before the midterms. Yes or no?

[Larry]

No.

[Kevin]

Kevin Walling, no, it's, it doesn't serve either party's interest.

[Mark]

The correct answer is 72 hours of shutdown in September, but then they solve it.

[Larry]

All right, thank you, John.

[Mark]

Yesterday, Attorney General, I mean, the governor of New Jersey announced something about voter registration that's kind of crazy. They accidentally registered some people who were ineligible to vote because they're not citizens, although they may have been in the country legally as they got driver's licenses. And she was kind of defiant about it. She said, yeah, there was a mistake made by the previous Democratic governor, but we're fixing it. You saw a lot of Trump folks doing the Snoopy dance saying, see, we told you so. The numbers are not huge. There's no indication it impacted an election. But as I heard more than one person say, every person who votes illegally cancels out the voting of an American citizen voting legally. Kevin, where is this going? Is there, is there, is this, is it, is it over as a story, or does this have implications going forward?

[Kevin]

I think it has some implications. Obviously, Republicans are going to use this effectively to push for the SAVE Act. I was surprised, you know, reading Politico today there. I don't think there was any reference to it in Playbook. So I don't know if that's, yeah. Well, again, you know, I don't know if that's some bias there, but the fact that this hasn't gotten a lot of, the fact that this hasn't gotten picked up, you know, it was, you know, I think, you know, they talked about it briefly on Morning Joe, cnn, other places. We'll see if it has legs. Republicans certainly wanted to, to have legs again. We'll see if there's a ground invasion of Iran. We're not talking about this anymore.

[Mark]

Larry, I know how you, I can imagine how you feel about it, but just educate people. Does this guy continue to be talked about? Are there more investigations? What happens next?

[Larry]

Yeah, and by the way, I don't have strong feelings about this. I have strong thoughts about this. And I think that this is indicative of what many of us have been saying is wrong with the way we do voter registration. That's why we need the Save America Act.

[Mark]

I know. I'm just asking you what happens next.

[Larry]

I think that this will absolutely support the argument and actually might even turn one or two Republicans who have been reluctant because it's blatant, it's right in front of them. And we need to stop just believing what the governor said yesterday. She claims that it was a software glitch. The software company is saying, no, it was not a software glitch. But the fundamental problem here, everybody, and this is why the Save America act is so important, is that we're doing voter registration, which I mean, quick question. What's more important in the participation of our democratic process? Voting or paying taxes?

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Larry]

50.

[Mark]

50. Voting.

[Larry]

50.

[Mark]

Voting.

[Larry]

Voting. We, we don't use the honor system when we pay our taxes, do we? We have a whole agency.

[Kevin]

Some people do.

[Mark]

I think, I think, I think Hunter Biden believes in the honor system.

[Larry]

There's an investigative body right now that is very well funded to make sure that people aren't cheating on their taxes. But we're registering, run by, run by a guy who spies on people on the honor system. The biggest.

[Mark]

All right, Larry, Larry, I just asked. I just want to ask you what happens.

[Larry]

I understand.

[Mark]

And you answered. All right, here we go.

[Kevin]

Here's my question, though. Does Jim Comer, you know, call a hearing about this when Congress is back in session in the fall? Yeah. And subpoena the governor and, you know, Phil Murphy and everybody.

[Mark]

Maybe, maybe. Point, Good point.

[Larry]

There should be a federal investigation into this. I don't know why we're taking the governor's word.

[Mark]

Yeah, no, there will be. There will be an investigation. Investigation. I'll be curious if the US who's the U. S. Attorney for New Jersey? Who is that?

[Kevin]

Wasn't it? What's her name?

[Larry]

Bruce Springs.

[Kevin]

Is that where.

[Mark]

Oh, it was, it was what?

[Larry]

It was.

[Mark]

It was.

[Kevin]

Oh, yeah, it was Elena.

[Mark]

Yeah, it was her for a while, but I think she got booted out. All right, ladies and gentlemen, I'm so open minded. It's, it's, it's something I pride myself on. I'm open to everything and I'm also. You may. You may or not may or may not know this on the nation's leading chronicler of what people think about J.D. vance. And in my life I have people who say that J.D. vance is a phony and a fake and a fraud and should never be anywhere near the Oval Office. And I have people who say not only will he be the next President United States, but he should be. And all of this came back a cropper with the Vice President's three hour appearance on the Rogan program in which he said a number of controversial things about Israel, about UFOs, about Epstein, that some people said in my life, again, open minded, I take it all in. Isn't he wonderful? Isn't he refreshing? Who else could do three hours on Rogan? Who else could be so plain spoken and great? And then I have people in my life who said this was a disqualifying appearance for a number of reasons. One person who I greatly respect, and he is a charter member of what I call the gang of 500. This is not a guy in a Green Bay diner, ladies and gentlemen. This is the elite of the elites. This could be arguably the most elite person in America. My friend Bret Stephens, who writes for the New York Times editorial page, Bret Stephens, reaction to the Vice President on Joe Rogan. Wow. I mean, I almost can't believe what he wrote. Here's the paragraph that most stood out to me. The truth that the current Vice President is by far the worst person ever to hold the office. Move over Aaron Burr, John C. Calhoun and Spiro Diagnu. That he thinks, probably correctly, that there's no political downside in today's Republican Party to talking like a guy who thinks Dan Dan Brown novels are works of nonfiction and that it's equally okay for a person who is by his own admission has full access to all the US Intelligence to tease the possibility of deep space, deep state conspiracies of the sort his political base is likely to believe. He says not only is the worst vice president of all time, but again, he should have no place in the Republican Party or he shouldn't possibly be president. Brett is not the gatekeeper to the Republican nomination, but man, he speaks for tens of millions or at least tens of really elite people. Larry?

[Larry]

Yeah.

[Kevin]

Can I just say one thing? As now a New South Carolinian, the fact that he has John C. Calhoun on that list, who was a great vice president, up with Aaron Burr, who declared war on this country, and Spiro Agnew, Mr. Tax Evasion. Hell, with Fred Stevens on that, I

[Mark]

was a little surprised at the list But Agnew. Larry. Thank you, Kevin. Well, you can make that a kind of personal privilege.

[Kevin]

He's buried like 10ft away from where I am right now.

[Mark]

Yeah, I know.

[Kevin]

Right where Stevens.

[Mark]

Larry, is there any significance to Brett Stevens point of view here? Because this guy is the most likely next Republican nominee and statistically the most likely next president, United States, and yet Brett Stevens is, is repudiating him in no uncertain terms. I'm not saying, I'm not saying Brett's the grassroots, just to be clear, but is there any significance to Brett saying this?

[Larry]

He doesn't. The influence of the Bret Stephens of the world on the Republican electorate has diminished greatly over the last couple of years. And I think that's a good thing. I will say this, though. A lot of the criticism of J.D. vance comes from, I think, a sort of gross classist perspective within the Republican Party. It's still this old bastion of sort of country club types, old money types, old, who don't like the fact that J.D. vance has invaded the club because he comes from very, very humble origins. And, and, and it's gross, it's, it's disgusting. You fight him on the merits, argue with his policies, but the rest of it just sort of reeks. And I don't like it.

[Kevin]

But I feel like he was in. Larry. I feel like he was embraced by that club, you know, Yale, you know, guy bootstraps Yale, then VC with the guy who founded Steve Case with aol and he was the darling

[Mark]

class CNN

[Larry]

political analys darling when he loved Trump Hitler.

[Kevin]

Yeah, I guess.

[Mark]

Larry, did he say anything to Rogan, Joe Rogan that bothered you? Did he say anything that bothered you?

[Larry]

You know, the one passage about influence from Israel in, you know, trying to do an influence campaign, I think was it was muddy the way he said it. And I think that it was, you know, to suggest that any commentator in America needs to be paid by the state of Israel to say we don't trust Iran in the negotiation table is, is sort of reductive. And by the way, and I don't think that that's really what J.D. vance thinks, it was just part of the flow of the conversation.

[Mark]

Maybe he'll correct it or clarified one more topic and then to your questions. But exit question on this, name someone who is more the personification of elite center right opinion than my friend Brett Stevens name if you can, or you can say Brett's the what is that word? Apotheosis. Is that the word like the peak

[Kevin]

of things in the ceiling painted in the Ceiling.

[Mark]

I see. Deborah in the chat says Ross. No, actually, I, I respectfully disagree. Ross is like, like a rabble razzer compared to Brett. Name someone, can you. Kevin, is there anybody?

[Kevin]

I can't. No, he's pretty far up there, Larry.

[Mark]

Is he the top? Is he the Mona Lisa?

[Larry]

Yeah, probably. Probably. Maybe. Maybe David French, sort of it. I don't even think he's a Republican anymore.

[Kevin]

David Brooks is a good one. David in the chat.

[Mark]

Yeah, Brooks would be. I'm gonna, I'm gonna ask Chat GPT to do a. A tale of the tape on this question between David Brooks and maybe Peggy Noonan.

[Larry]

Peggy Noonan.

[Mark]

Maybe Peggy. Anyway, gentlemen, Iran. I already told you, the President on Truth Social this morning said that tit for tat. Now, if the Iranians fire at a ship in the, in the straight, that we're going to destroy a bridge or something, maybe even near Tehran. Marco Rubio spoke this morning about Iran in the Strait. Number 108, please. The problem we're having right now is

[Larry]

that they're not serious about talks.

[Mark]

If they're serious, we're serious. If they're not, then we will do what is necessary to protect that, our

[Larry]

interest and also the interest of our allies.

[Mark]

At its core, it's very simple. Iran demands rights, which they do not have under any existing legal mechanism to control the transit of traffic through the Straits of Hormuz. This is an international waterway. You can dump that in of all the regions. Tom Cotton on Fox and Friends repeated his call for the President to go all in and just turn the place into a parking lot. Bomb it back to the Stone Age. He said they won't negotiate. Iran also said this in response to what they claim were the killings of military leaders in their private homes. Number 1 6, 16. An Iranian spokesperson now says that if, if the United States continues to do that or not. Not if they continue. He said, because you targeted the private residences of our commanders and their families, all of your commanders in the region will now be targeted in their private residences as well. That's a little bit scary. The Wall Street Journal had the story I've been waiting for someone to write today about the current continued missile capability of the Iranians. Whatever the President wants to tell you about, about degrading, destroying, eliminating Iran, as we've seen in the last 10 days, they still have the ability to fire a lot of missiles and hit a lot of targets, including US Personnel that they've killed, as well as American allies. Wall Street Journal broke last night. Others have matched the notion number 119, please, that there's going to be a deal announced maybe today between the United States and Saudi Arabia that will be presented to Congress to pass, that will allow are the Iranians, the Saudis with American help to develop nuclear capacity. The Iranians, the Saudis have always said if Iran's gonna have a nuclear weapon, they're gonna have one too. Those who believe in non proliferation would not like to see the Saudis and the Iranians with nukes.

[Kevin]

But that's also in the the energy sector right now. It's in terms of enrichment, but it

[Mark]

would allow them to develop capacity that could be converted obviously to weapons. And one or two more things. 112, please. Concern that we've talked about this before, that the Houthis are going to disrupt, at the behest of these Iranians are going to disrupt the Saudi's ability in the red and black seas to. To send ships through. Two tankers loaded with Saudi crude were turned around on Tuesday. The successful blockade would open another front in the U. S. Iran conflict. And here's a quote from the Democratic Senate candidate in Iowa. Republicans are trying to not have the war ruin the midterms, but Democrats I've sounded both on Capitol Hill and on the campaign trail this week have kind of found their voice connecting Iran to the economy here at home. Here's a Mr. Turek, the candidate in Iowa. This is 118, please. Everywhere I'm going, it doesn't matter urban or rural areas, people are telling me that they're struggling just to keep food on the table, a roof above their head. And now with this unnecessary war in Iran, we're looking at being. We're looking at being able to afford gas. Patty Murray, I thought was extraordinarily articulate yesterday with Secretary Hegseth in linking up in calling the war a failure and talking about how it's hurting people here at home. Larry?

[Larry]

Yeah.

[Mark]

Where does that leave us now in terms of the president's options?

[Larry]

The president has three options all in with increasing our military campaign and all in on bombing and following the Tom Cotton path. All out, which is to sort of declare some kind of victory and say, all right, fine, we've set them back a couple of decades. American people don't have the stomach for more. So we're just gonna let an administration 20 years from now deal with this or just hunker down and do the blockade and increase. And it seems like that seems to be the most important focus right now. If you ask anybody in the administration what's our strategy. It all comes back to the straight. It all comes back to the free flow of trade until there are alternatives outside of the strait. And Kevin, those are his three alternatives. And, and based on his tweet this morning that you just mentioned at the top of the show, it looks like he wants to go all in.

[Mark]

Yeah. Kevin, you ever been to Larry's studio?

[Kevin]

I'm not, no. Well, it's fairly new too. I mean, he's only been in there,

[Mark]

so this is like kind of the inside baseball. Somebody like Larry's got a post. Larry's got a post. It, you can't see, but it's in his line of sight and it says if Mark asks me the same question, I'm going to give him the same answer. Thank you, Larry. Kevin,

[Kevin]

I forget which center. Maybe it was Senator Kennedy of Louisiana who's asking. General Kane, who's an Air force, obviously four star. And General Kane acknowledged the limitations of just bombing right from, you know, control of the air.

[Mark]

He said if you read the, if you read history, that seems exactly.

[Kevin]

Which I thought was actually one of the more interesting things that. Yeah, I agree that, that, that is we're now acknowledging in our senior leadership of the military execution of this campaign that there are limitations to just bombing. Right. And hilarious point. If the, if that first category is where the President goes all in is likely to include some element of boots on the ground, some element of, you know, going, you know, door to door, what have you on these islands to upset the status quo, that it clearly is not working. I also think the President is an emotional guy. And let's also not discount, I think the effect that going to Dover today will have on him and his resolve.

[Mark]

Good call. Good call.

[Kevin]

When he sees those caskets coming off the, the, the transports draped in the American flag.

[Larry]

So I think that to the wives and the parents of those, I think

[Kevin]

that will actually have more of an impact on the direction of the war in the next number of days than anything else.

[Mark]

Good call. Hey, Larry, did you read the articles about the 15th anniversary of the Five on Fox?

[Larry]

I saw a little bit of it, yeah. Celebration.

[Mark]

Greg Gunfeld said the reason the show works is because we tease each other.

[Larry]

We kid, I know, joke around. Hold on.

[Kevin]

The ratings of the Five were never higher than when I was guest hosting on that table next to. I know, next to Judge Jeanine, my buddy out of parking tickets.

[Mark]

Quick word from a sponsors and then to your questions, please. If you've never raised your hand before, today'd be a great day. To get in on the conversation, raise your hand. White House press pool reports. Here's amongst those traveling with the president to Dover today. Not necessarily. On to Georgia Hegseth, General Kane, Caroline Levitt, Walt Nada, who's of course his personal valet. I know he's not what we call him. Natalie Harp and then Chamberlain Harris. Gentlemen, hit your buzzer. Who is Chamberlain Harris? You may Google. You may Google.

[Larry]

No idea.

[Mark]

Chamberlain Harris is on Air Force One today. Nobody knows. Okay.

[Kevin]

Yeah. Do you know?

[Mark]

I don't know. I'm embarrassed.

[Larry]

Oh, I thought you had the answer.

[Mark]

I was looking for information. Somebody put it in the chat.

[Larry]

Chamberlain. Chamberlain Harris is a 26 year old political aide in the Trump administration.

[Mark]

He might be the body right now.

[Larry]

Oval Office body guy.

[Mark]

Yeah, that's what we call the body.

[Larry]

And by the way, it's a she. So don't be misgendering my gal Chamberlain. Thank you very much.

[Mark]

What do you think the diminutive for Chamberlain is?

[Larry]

Chamby.

[Mark]

James. How about James? Jamesy. All right, word sponsor. Here we go. Cozy Earth July promotion. Bamboo sheet set and beach towels available as a package. 20 off. Go to cozyeart.com use the promo code. Morning. I've been using the towels and they're great. I like getting out of the ocean and wrapping myself in one of them. They're soft, they're comfortable and like all the cozier stuff, they are not flimsy. They're the opposite. What's the opposite of flimsy? Substantial. It's substantial and soft. The double S's. Right now go to cozyearth.com get 20 off everything on the site. 10 year warranty on all the sleep stuff, including those viscous from bamboo breathable soft sheets built for summer and you can return them after 99 days hassle free if you decide they're not for you. But they will be. Go to cozyearth.com use the promo code two way and get 20 off everything on the site. The pants, the shirts, everything, and of course the famous pillows and socks, all available to you as members of the two way community. For 20 off cozyearth.com go right now and give it a try. And finally, Larry, you're up, dude.

[Larry]

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[Mark]

all right, thank you, Larry.

[Eric Gertler]

From the State House to the courthouse, in the emergency room and in the classroom, Americans are losing trust in their leaders. In a 2025 U.S. news and World Report survey, 85% of Americans said government leaders care more more about their own power than the people they serve. 73% are disappointed in healthcare leaders, 72% in business, and 68% in education. But there are still leaders worth believing in. I'm Eric Gertler, CEO and executive chairman of U.S. news World Report. This is the Best Leaders podcast sponsored by the Noble Reach Foundation. On this show, we'll go deeper into the stories, challenges and lessons of extraordinary leaders across public service, business, healthcare and education. You can find the Best Leaders podcast from U.S. news World Report on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, Amazon, Music, or wherever you get your podcasts. I started with one shop. No college degree, no big investors. It was just a willingness to work. Over time, that one shop turned into a multi billion dollar business called Crash Champions. All the lessons I learned along the way came from the grind. And that's what my show Pod Crash is all about. We have real conversations with people who've built things the hard way. We talk to founders, athletes and blue collar leaders who kept going when things got tough. You'll hear stories of grit, leadership and growth. Plus real world lessons you can take back to your team and your life.

[Mark]

Tomorrow, when you get momentum, you step on the gas. That's how you get separation from everybody else.

[Kevin]

I was at Harvard Law School. I was.

[Larry]

Blah, blah, blah.

[Eric Gertler]

I looked up.

[Ellen Douglas]

Let me tell you something.

[Eric Gertler]

There's kids in my neighborhood putting in sheetrock that are smarter than you.

[Mark]

AI is going to disrupt a lot of stuff.

[Kevin]

It is never going to disrupt physical

[Mark]

blue collar trade skill.

[Kevin]

And the guy just looked at me and he said, it's bloody impossible. So I asked him this question.

[Eric Gertler]

I said, it's impossible. Unless that's Podcrash with me, Matt Ebert. Watch on YouTube and listen wherever you get your podcast.

[Mark]

All right, everybody, here we go. Raise your hand if you want in on the conversation. Tell everybody where you are, what's on your mind. And we start with Maddie. Maddie, thank you for being here.

[Kevin]

Hey, Maddie. The pride of la, right here.

[Mark]

Hey.

[Kevin]

Morning, Kevin. Congrats on the House. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

[Larry]

By the way, Jerry Garcia, love the

[Eric Gertler]

guys on Leland last night talking midterms in Iran.

[Larry]

I want to get more specific.

[Mark]

How much does the direction of the

[Larry]

midterms affect Trump's next move in Iran? And if he's successful in the midterms, would that change your view on possible boots on the ground?

[Mark]

Great question, Larry.

[Larry]

I think there's a possibility for boots on the ground regardless of whether he's successful or not after the midterms. It's definitely looming, even though the President will say it's not. And that said, I think that it is affecting a couple of the Senate races. And. And I think it will affect the Senate race in Michigan. I think it will affect the Senate race in Alaska in a way that helps Democrats. In a way that it helps Democrats. If it continues to be sort of this weird limbo.

[Mark]

Why do you say. Why do you say those two states?

[Larry]

Because I think that those two states. Well, Alaska is just sort of the candidate right now. I forget. It was Sullivan, right?

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Kevin]

Dan Sullivan. Yep.

[Larry]

Is not a huge. He's already been critical of our policies in Iran. He's already said of things where. Where he's been hesitant to embrace the President's dealings with Iran right now or the strategy that it's going. And so that tells me that he believes that the people of Alaska and the voters of Alaska are going to. Are not all in on the president's policy there. And in Michigan, because it leans blue in most cases, and we haven't had a Republican there, I think that whoever the nominee is, they're going to go hard on the Iranian policy, especially going after Mike Rogers, who's sort of an establishment, national security type Of. Of hockey guy. So that's why I think it's going to be important in those states. It's affecting those races, and it's affecting a couple of the congressional races. And so the President is getting a lot of that feedback right now, especially as it pertains to the gas prices. And so that's why you're sort of seeing a treading water effect right now from the White House, which is not good. He's got to go one way or the other. He just has to.

[Mark]

Kevin, if there's a Democratic controlled House or Senate, as Matty asked, does that change the President's calculus?

[Kevin]

I think it almost emboldens the President even more. And Mark, certainly you've spent a lot of time with the President over the years. I'm interested to hear your perspective on this. But I almost see the President even more disengaged from the midterms. His team certainly is. James Blair, Suzy Wiles, they just convened a whole group of pollsters and strategists just the other day to coordinate spending, especially in messaging. But you know, the President walking out of the great optics of signing that housing bill, that bipartisan housing bill that would have been a boon to some key Republicans in some of these key races, I think speaks volumes. We'll see how his speech is delivered here in Georgia. I think it's probably going to be off script and it's going to be a list of grievances and things like that instead of actually a really tailored message that helps Collins and Jackson over the finish line. I think the President's kind of over all of this when it comes to the midterms. His team certainly isn't. And we'll see how that affects some

[Larry]

of these races, Matty. And real fast, a lot of the pressure that the President is getting right now from people like Sullivan, as I just mentioned, the pressure is to go harder, not to pull out. Yeah.

[Kevin]

Mike Rounds, others, even kind of backbenders.

[Larry]

That's actually the interesting juxtaposition. A lot of people think that the war is hurting Republicans in the election and so they want the war to end. No. Some of them think that they will be. Their chances will be improved if the President starts increasing the military force.

[Kevin]

But. But couched in the idea that he needs to make the case to the American people.

[Larry]

Yes.

[Kevin]

Much like Mike Rounds is out there, you can go full throttle. But another presidential address that actually drives the message.

[Larry]

Yeah. Get us to buy in. Get us to buy in.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Mark]

Thank you, Matty. Hey, Larry, can I borrow your Homework.

[Larry]

Yeah, sure, anytime.

[Kevin]

Okay.

[Mark]

I need to copy before Professor Kenny gets here.

[Larry]

Absolutely.

[Mark]

He collects homework.

[Larry]

He's not in a sling.

[Mark]

He collects homework at the beginning of class.

[Kevin]

Shoulders looking better. I fell last night walking Shakespeare.

[Larry]

I just re injured my shoulder.

[Mark]

No, yeah, I'm all right.

[Kevin]

I'm all right.

[Ellen Douglas]

I'm right.

[Mark]

I just wanted to bring up this nuke deal with Saudi Arabia.

[Eric Gertler]

Are we out of our minds or what? I mean, come on, what are we thinking here? I understand the financial benefits, but can

[Mark]

we really trust Saudi Arabia ever? You know, they're supposed to be our ally now. To paraphrase Tom Lehre, we taught them a lesson after 9, 11, they barely.

[Larry]

Yeah, yeah, we taught them a lesson.

[Mark]

Look, look, one of the most undercovered story in the war right now is the Saudis. The Gulf states are unhappy with the status quo. They want the war to either escalate or de escalate. And like always, they're talking out of both sides of their mouth. They just want a solution. They don't want to pay any price. They don't really have a firm view about whether they don't want to commit

[Kevin]

any of their armed forces.

[Mark]

Any of their armed forces. But every president has to cowtow to the Saudis because of oil. And there are two benefits of this deal. Number one, it appeases the Saudis, we're probably getting something back in return. And number two, there is a business side to it. Like almost every deal the President ever makes. American companies are going to get business. Billions of dollars in business business, maybe trillions from the Saudis. The downside, as you suggest, is it involves trusting the Saudis. But we're in for, we're in for more than a few shekels with the Saudis already. Like we. There's no game in which we have to be wary where we can afford to be wary of what the Saudis might do.

[Eric Gertler]

Well, how does Israel feel about this?

[Mark]

You know they sign the Abraham Accords.

[Larry]

Yeah.

[Mark]

And you know.

[Kevin]

Well, and that's, and that's why we're doing so many of these concessions even before October 7th and the war in Iran to get Saudis to the table. Because that's the whole ball game. If they sign on to Abraham.

[Mark]

Hold on, just to clarify, I didn't say they signed the Abraham Accords. I said someday. Oh yeah, Israel is.

[Larry]

And this might be part and parcel of that.

[Kevin]

Yeah, yeah, let's keep our fingers crossed.

[Larry]

Larry.

[Mark]

Larry, do you like this deal?

[Larry]

I want to know more about it. I know that some people are Saying, listen, we're demonstrating that if you cooperate with the west and you really, truly do want a civilian nuclear program, there are ways to go about doing that where we can be involved in it from scratch, and so we can have close monitoring of it. And there's no shell game here about you also developing a weapon system. I don't know if I buy that or that. And frankly, by the way, I'd love to be able to develop more nuclear power plants here in America, but the environmentalists keep stopping us from doing it. But we need to do that, because I'm sick and tired of paying so much for electricity.

[Mark]

Thank you, Professor. Don't fall anymore. Senate committee, with the support of John Cornyn, who threatened otherwise, voted to confirm Carrie Lake to be an ambassador. So her nomination, where's she going?

[Kevin]

Like, Barbados or something like that?

[Larry]

I think it's, like, somewhere in the Caribbean, I think.

[Kevin]

Yeah, Barbados. You know, Governor, Senator, Carrie, you know

[Mark]

what her last name is? Her husband's last name is what? Carrie Lake's husband's last name. You really don't know Lake, Is it Lake? That's. It's Halperin.

[Larry]

Is that right?

[Kevin]

No. Spelled the same way.

[Larry]

No relation.

[Mark]

Spelled the same way. No relation. Aaron, welcome in. Thank you for being here, sir.

[Larry]

Good morning from Houston, everybody.

[Mark]

What's on your mind? Houston? We have no, we have no problem.

[Kevin]

A lot of great restaurant recommendations that market give you in Houston. It's a foodie town.

[Mark]

Good. I could, yeah, I don't need, I

[Larry]

don't need to know where there's another restaurant in Houston.

[Kevin]

I get a plenty of those.

[Eric Gertler]

All right.

[Mark]

The question, the question for today is,

[Larry]

well, when, you know, a lot of us voted for Trump to close the border under the principle if you, if you don't have a border, you don't have a country, did not know that

[Mark]

we would also be voting to appoint

[Larry]

a technology transfer czar and just shovel all of our best military trade secrets to a tiny, distant nation. We didn't know that. Which seems also like a threat to our sovereignty. And so my question is Will, and

[Mark]

this is the part where I'll either

[Larry]

inform or remind you that the Pentagon raised the counterintelligence threat level of Israel

[Mark]

to critical in June of this year.

[Larry]

That is higher than Iran, China, Russia or North Korea. And so, yeah. Will any Republican other than Thomas Massie have the spine to vote against this?

[Mark]

Larry?

[Kevin]

Well, first of all, that's a question for Larry.

[Larry]

If that, if that threat level has been raised the way you framed that, Aaron, it suggests that Israel is the threat. If there's a threat.

[Mark]

That's correct.

[Larry]

That is. That is the Defense Intelligence Agency's assessment. That is June of this year. Terror threat to the United States. No, no, no, no, no, no.

[Kevin]

Counter intelligence. Intelligence. Intelligence.

[Larry]

They're spying on us. They're spying on the Pentagon. The Pentagon, I misunderstand, assesses that they're spying on us. Yeah. No, listen, I think that there might be some Republicans who vote against this. I don't know if it necessarily takes us spying. You know, if you go back to the Cold War era, just in terms of the talking point that they're spying on us. One of our closest allies spied on us all the time. It was Great Britain. I'm not condoning it.

[Mark]

And we spy on Israel, to be clear.

[Larry]

And we certainly do. And again. And I'm not condoning it. I'm just saying that's the reality of the situation and the calculation made by this administration and pretty much every administration before it. Is it as complicated and as challenging and frankly, sometimes as frustrating as our relationship with Israel is, they are still a key ally in that region against other existential threats to this country. And so they're going to continue to keep that relationship going. And a whole lot of the technology that is being shared with Israel, if not the vast majority of it, is of a defensive capability. It has to do with their gold dome protection from. Larry, you have no idea. This is totally ad hoc and at the will of this technology transfer czar.

[Eric Gertler]

You have no idea.

[Mark]

Idea what will be shared.

[Larry]

There are no guardrails on this thing whatsoever.

[Mark]

Yeah, I agree. I agree with Aaron.

[Kevin]

And Aaron, we'll see. I'll only add, we'll see if anything changes after their October elections if Bibi is still in power. Because I think likely it's the case that the prime minister is driving a lot of this. And if we get a different prime minister, if that. That changes.

[Mark]

Thank you, Aaron. Ladies and gentlemen, in American life and American history, there are three great Douglases. There's Michael Douglas, Buster Douglas, and Ellen Douglas. Ellen Douglas joins us now live.

[Ellen Douglas]

Hello. Well, don't forget Frederick Douglass.

[Mark]

Yeah, I wouldn't go back that far, but you're right, he probably trumped the other three. No offense.

[Larry]

He was a Republican.

[Mark]

Ellen.

[Ellen Douglas]

Oh, well, that's all right.

[Kevin]

They were all Republicans back then.

[Ellen Douglas]

Ah, Well, I am in Scottsdale, and I actually didn't really have too much to say. I just wanted to comment on our primary election yesterday.

[Kevin]

Please do.

[Ellen Douglas]

And that I was actually disappointed that David Schweikart didn't win the primary.

[Mark]

He got his butt kicked.

[Kevin]

He got trounced.

[Ellen Douglas]

Yeah, he did. And I was really surprised by that. He is a nose to the grind kind of congressman. And I always remember he got in trouble with John Boehner when he first came to Congress because he voted against the Republicans. So Boehner public punished him by putting him in a different committee, you know, like putting him in a lesser committee. So it was just. I feel like Biggs winning so bigly is a reflection of sort of like where the voters are at, that they just want someone who can support the MAGA talking points versus think for yourself.

[Mark]

Yeah, MAGA candidates did very well. Were there. Were there visible debates in the governor's race?

[Ellen Douglas]

There was one. I didn't really pay attention to it because I knew I was going to support David Schweikart. So I was just the other guy that.

[Mark]

How do you handicap the general election, Ellis?

[Ellen Douglas]

It is going to be very interesting because I feel like Katie Hobbs this term has spent the majority of her time vetoing the ridiculous legislation that the MAGA extremists have put on her desk. You know, things that just don't make sense and aren't productive, you know. Yeah, Government.

[Mark]

Kevin, questions for Ellen or thoughts?

[Kevin]

Yeah, I mean, sorry, go ahead.

[Ellen Douglas]

Oh, I was just gonna say I had one more thought. Jay feely. I'm in CD1 and Jay Feely one. Schweikart spot.

[Larry]

Yeah.

[Mark]

And former NFL kicker.

[Ellen Douglas]

Yes. And backed by the President.

[Kevin]

I think he was endorsed by the president as well, right?

[Ellen Douglas]

Yes, yes, he was. And I would just say that check out his website because I'm pretty sure a child put it together. Not the grammar police in me. He says he is running in Congress and like, no, you don't run in Congress. You run for Congress. So there's a lot of, like, grammatical errors in his website. And so for that reason, I say this respectfully.

[Mark]

Would that be grammar or usage?

[Ellen Douglas]

Probably usage.

[Mark]

Okay, just checking. Ironically, just.

[Ellen Douglas]

Are you like, police grammar policing me?

[Larry]

Oh, you have no idea.

[Kevin]

The grammar gestapo.

[Larry]

Don't you even get started.

[Ellen Douglas]

Yeah, that was all.

[Kevin]

First of all, quick thoughts on the AG race too. Right. So the Democrat, I think, won last cycle by like 300 votes and has been fairly outspoken. Right. In terms of.

[Ellen Douglas]

Yes.

[Kevin]

Taking on election denialism and things like that. I don't know who the AG The Republicans put up in terms of who won, but I wonder what that actually. That actually has implications for the election in 28 too. Obviously with the Governor's race.

[Ellen Douglas]

Yes, yes. And Secretary of State is another like.

[Kevin]

And Secretary of State. Do you all have, do you all have a lieutenant governor yet or is it still the Secretary of State that

[Ellen Douglas]

becomes governor of State? Yeah. And the two people that were up were just so not strong candidates on the Republican side. And Adrian Fontes is our Secretary of State now and he's good. So, you know.

[Mark]

Go ahead, Larry.

[Larry]

Jay Feely was a member of the 1997 Michigan Wolverine national championship team.

[Kevin]

Go Blue.

[Larry]

Go Blue. I mean, he's always going to have a place in my heart.

[Mark]

I think he kicked for the jets

[Larry]

and the Giants and the Giants and the Dolphins for.

[Kevin]

Did he have to move homes when he, when he went from one team to the other? Didn't even in the tri state area.

[Mark]

Didn't even have to change lockers.

[Larry]

I will say, listen, if this midterm election, as many people believe is going to be a commentary on President Trump's popularity, then that governor's race is really something because you've got one candidate or the incumbent who basically says my job is to stop the MAGA extremists, pretty much. And Andy Biggs, who was a pretty close ally, although people forget he was a thorn in the side of President Trump now and again there, especially when it came to leadership in the House and a couple of bills when he was with Freedom Caucus. But for the most part, Andy Biggs is gonna run as the MAGA lover that he is. The question is, and my question to you, Ellen, is how much is the border and various benefits for illegal immigrants and illegal immigration in Arizona? Is that a major issue right now

[Ellen Douglas]

in the state border? Yes. Benefits for illegal immigrants? No. You need to be a citizen. You know, they locked all that up a long time ago and we don't really support benefits for anyone in need in general here in Arizona.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Larry]

So if support for ICE and border protection is going to be a tough top three issue, then I think that'll be a very interesting race. And like I said, I think it's a toss up. I think it's pretty close. We'll probably talk about.

[Mark]

Ellen, thank you. Grateful to you. Gotta, gotta run. I gotta thank you tell folks about but thank you. The president spoke on the tarmac just moments ago. We're trying to understand what he said. He called the four Service. He paid homage to the four service members. I know that tonight on two way tonight. Melissa derosa and Beverly Halberg join us us please be part of that.

[Kevin]

Two powerhouses right there.

[Mark]

Two powerhouses. A new episode of NextUp has dropped my interview with David Bozell about how Yahoo News and Apple News and other aggregators have a huge influence on what we hear in my reported monologue on why being anti establishment is in. Meghan McCain at noon today welcomes conservative commentator Alicia Krauss. And of course, Meghan knows more about Arizona politics than I will ever, ever know by a lot lot. So hopefully you'll hear from her on that. And if you want to spend most of the day with me, have an opportunity. In addition to being on SiriusXM at 10, I'll be on SiriusXM at 11 with Michael Smerconish. I'll then be on at 9 o' clock at 5 o' clock for 2A tonight. Then at 9 o' clock, I'll be on with my friend, what's my friend's name? Emily. Emily Jasinski. And then at 10 o' clock in the 10 o' clock hour, the three of us will be on with Katie Pavlich on News Nation. So basically, except for the spend the

[Kevin]

entire day with you, spend the whole

[Mark]

day with me, except for a few hours in the afternoon. So look forward to that, gentlemen. Look forward to spending more time with you later tonight. Thank you all and we'll see you tomorrow at 9:00am thanks, everybody.