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The Morning Meeting
Israel Said To Kill Head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Amid Ceasefire Talks, Looming Trump Deadline
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A
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B
Two one. Welcome in, everybody. This is Morning Meeting. I'm Mark Halpern here with Melissa DeRosa. Hogan Gidley. This program is based on the network News division's morning meetings where we'll talk about what's going on today with a forward looking emphasis on the daybook. And then we'll kick things around and then we'll take your questions, your comments, your suggestions, your recommendations, your complaints and your prayers. Please raise your hand being on the conversation. If you're watching on x or on YouTube, please. No smack in the chat, no nothing that flies in the face of peace, love and understanding. The extension of presumption of grace to all. The President posted on True Social over the weekend in a way that really got people thinking. How's that, Melissa? People will say I always remember where I was when X happened. Where were you when you read the president's post on Truth Social using profanity?
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A
I was in my apartment in New York City.
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B
Yeah.
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A
And I was gravely concerned.
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B
Okay, Hogan, where were you and how did you react?
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C
Initially, I was on my way to church and I took screenshot and sent several people who should in my orbit, who should be up to date on all the President's truth posts. And then that started some back and forth conversations.
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B
All right, well, we'll talk more about that again in a working way. I'll just say I thought it was a parody account. At first I was like, well, that's obviously not real.
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A
There was another one floating around. I don't know if you saw it from a parody account where he was comparing himself to Jesus Christ.
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B
And I did.
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A
I was trying to figure out what was real and what was not real.
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B
Yeah, yeah. All right. I'm just checking some connections here. All right, a quick word from a sponsor and then we're going to jump again. Raise your hand if you're here on the platform again. From a 20 care for the moms in your life with some great gifts of bathrobes and slippers, bubble cuddle blankets all available to you 20% off. And it's a good time to get your Mother's Day shopping done. Remind the moms in your life that you know that they deserve care and the kind of care that comes from Cozy Earth. Affordable and lush luxury everyday routines into moments of softness and ease. Go right now to cozyearth.com use my exclusive code I love saying that. Use my exclusive code morning for 20% off and if you see a post purchase survey you'll just say you heard about Cozy Earth right here on the morning meeting. Home starts with mom and everything available on the site to you right now. Go just get all the gifts buying done. Go to cozyearth.com use the promo code morning for 20% off everything on the site. Thank you for your attention.
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C
To that matter, I started with one shop. No college degree, no big investors. It was just a willingness to work. Over time that one shop turned into a multi billion dollar business called Crash Champions. All the lessons I learned along the it came from the grind. And that's what my show podcrash is all about. We have real conversations with people who've built things the hard way. We talk to founders, athletes and blue collar leaders who kept going when things got tough. You'll hear stories of grit, leadership and growth. Plus real world lessons you can take back to your team and your life tomorrow.
- [04:05]
B
When you get momentum, you step on the gas. That's how you get separation from everybody else.
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C
I was at Harvard Law School. I was blah blah blah. I looked up.
- [04:12]
B
Let me tell you something.
- [04:13]
C
There's kids in my neighborhood putting in Sheetrock that are smarter than you. AI is going to disrupt a lot of stuff. It is never going to disrupt physical
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B
blue collar trade skill.
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C
And the guy just looked at me and he said it's bloody impossible. So I asked him this question. I said it's impossible. Unless that's Podcast with me Matt ebert. Watch on YouTube and listen wherever you get your podcasts.
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B
And now to some other matters, which is what's going on today. The President today has executive time right now and then at 10 o', clock, the annual tradition. The President likes to make fun of Joe Biden for his appearance at the Easter Egg Roll. But every president poses with the giant, giant bunny in one way or the other. That's at 10 o' clock, open to pre credentialed media. And remember in the past, sometimes the president's happy to answer questions about life, death, war and peace in front of little children. So we'll see how much he talks at. And then at one o' clock he comes to the White House briefing room. He's done that only on, I think maybe two other occasions as president this term to give a briefing. Now when he teased us, he said members of the military coming with him. And I suspect that a lot of the presentation will be about the extraordinary events of the weekend when an American service member was rescued in dramatic fashion. But obviously if it is a press conference and not just a series of presentations, there'll be a lot of questions about the prospects for peace or war. That's one o'. Clock. Full coverage on two way tonight. Then 2:30, a closed press policy meeting. And then 3:30 he greets Jewish community leaders. Closed press in the Oval. Don't know what the vice president's doing later in the week. Of course, he's going to tomorrow to Hungary. They're mixed reporting over the weekend about how involved he is in the negotiations about a potential peace deal. But let's not be surprised if his trip gets altered in some way and he goes to meet with the Iranians. I'm not predicting it or reporting it, but we shouldn't be surprised. The House and Senate are out and there's not much else going on today. So the week ahead tomorrow, runoff to film. Marjorie Taylor, Green seat in Georgia expected to be won by the Republican, as I said, the first lady or the second lady and the vice president go to Budapest to support the head of that country in advance of the election in a few days, where he is the underdog. Currently, the secretary general of NATO comes to the White House on Wednesday and also gives a speech at a time when the alliance is in a bit of trouble. 35th anniversary. What's the 35th anniversary? What are you supposed to give on the 35th anniversary? Is that really nice paper or copper? I don't know. Anyway, 35th anniversary, Al Sharpton's group, a lot of sway and this great speakers, ladies and gentlemen, including Josh Khanna, Wes Moore and J.B. pritzker. And then Friday, what they're teasing as special guests widely believed to be Kamala Harris and then Pete Buttigieg and then Saturday, Andy Beshear and Mark Kelly. So a lot of folks who may run for president all coming to kiss the Sharpton ring and speak here in Gotham City. Jimmy Kimmel Amongst his guests, Gene Smart, Stephen. Amongst his guests this week, Oprah and Bryan Cranston, Jimmy Fallon, host, Cardi B, Johnny Knoxville, Tom Brady and Kerry Washington. Hogan, if you could have dinner with one of those four, who would you pick? Cardi B. Johnny Knoxville, Tom Brady, Kerry Washington, Tom Brady, Tom Brady, Melissa. Tom Brady. I'm suspecting.
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A
I don't know. Can I go back to Oprah?
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B
Yeah, you can have Oprah.
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C
All right.
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B
At this hour, last check Dow futures were just a smidge, as we say in Mar a Lago, and crude Brent down slightly. So if the markets are freaked out by the President using profanity and a true social post and I'm told now the futures are up slightly, so strange going on. All right, negotiations. Some organizations are reporting that the Iranians have already rejected the deal floated by the Pakistanis with input from other countries involving a 45 day ceasefire in return for opening the strait to all traffic during and during the 45 days. Ostensibly there'd be negotiation. The plan that the Pakistanis have put forward is not totally different than the 15 point plan the United States had previously offered summarily rejected by the Iranians. And there's reasons to believe that Iran won't accept this deal beyond the organizations who are reporting that Here's a part of a very long and very good. I highly recommend wheat. What do you call those?
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A
Spools.
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B
What do you call those? Breads. Thank you. Breads. Kareem Sajapur. Who's. Where is. He's not the Council on Foreign Relations. I always think he is, but he's. Thank you. Carnegie Endowment. My dad used to work there. I should remember. Anyway, here's some of ones. 109 please. His. His thread explains why that Iran would accept a deal like this. He says one of America's deepest misunderstandings about Iran has been conflating Iran's national interests with regime interests. They are often opposites. What would benefit Iranian stability? Global reintegration, Normalcy threatens a theocratic mafia that thrives in isolation and here's 110. Please. Trump wants a quick deal. The regime, for both ideological and structural reasons cannot make one so long as the Islamic Republic rules Iran. The inevitable outcome is returned to a cold war that predates this lasted. It's a very long thread. I recommend it to you again. The President could move deadline from 8pm tomorrow night but if he doesn't move the deadline, ostensibly Iran. The United States hasn't fully embraced the deal, but I bet they take it based on what I know. So Hogan Will there be a peace deal, massive bombing or a move of the deadline? Which of those three thinking most likely
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C
peace deal, a massive bombing or what was the Last one?
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B
By 8pm tomorrow night, we'll either have a peace deal, we'll have massive bombing, or we'll have the president moving back the deadline. Which of those three are you most on right now?
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C
I'm leaning toward bombing.
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B
Bombing. Tell us why
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C
in that thread, which was a very good thread, you did not pick that. I wish. The paradox of Islamic Republic is that it tends to compromise only under pressure external press regime. In addition, the regime opponents significantly outnumber regime supporters. But no outside power can forge a new national consensus for Iranians. I think that because again, they only really understand strength and power and you know, that type pressure, that may be the route it goes because as also outlined in that thread, who are we negotiating with? The thread seems to think there's consternation inside the regime because no one knows
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A
who's
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C
Trump wants to make a deal. I would imagine you see some type of military action in the next little bit.
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B
And Hogan, before you go to Melissa, the Gulf states seem to be of two minds. They say on the one hand widely reported, don't end the war until you really break the Iranians and change regime. On the other hand, they're, they're a little worried that if the US Strikes energy and desalination target, the Iranians could retaliate. So how worried are you? How worried do you think the president would be about World War iii, that he strikes these targets and the Iranians, as they've done so far, strike back comparable targets in Israel and the Gulf states and Saudi.
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C
Well, listen, I've been in these rooms and had these, I've seen these military top brass have these conversations. I just, I think they're gaming all that out. Mark, I, I don't want to be one to, to, to guesstimate or to offer an opinion on what I think would happen there because there's so much of this. It's so.
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B
Are you, are you worried about it though? Are you worried about that happening?
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C
I'm not worried about it just because I think there are enough, there are enough people, you know, gaming out things.
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B
Yeah.
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C
This is probably one of those things that won't happen. World War Three would not happen.
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B
All right, Melissa. US Massive attack by the deadline, the deadline delayed or a peace deal?
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A
I don't think a peace deal. I don't think we're any close to that. Love to hear other. I think Hogan is right that there's going to have to be some buying because how many times can you make a threat works is if you show that you're willing to follow through on it or else you are a toothless tiger. And Trump has put himself in a box with this 8pm threat because I think Iran has no interest in a deal. And then if we follow through with this, then we have to be prepared to collapse civilian life in Iran. And I think the ripple effect of that which was also hinted at in that thread is what happens after that. Right. I think that not thinking through is the whole, the whole setup for this that worked or the environment that allowed for it was the perception the Iranian people could or would topple the regime if we had put them in a position to successfully that if we start to implants resources, all of these things, you see civilian people that end up being driven back to the people that are fighting on their own behalf if we then become the vill. And so I think we are in a terrible position right now. But I think Hogan's right. I think if we don't bomb something, then who are we? I think that we will just prove ourselves to be a toothless tiger.
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C
Melissa, I think you and I talked about this on two way last week and it was, I was pointing out the fact that the you break it, you bought it thing is not ideology, something that George W. Bush era taught us we don't believe that way. I don't think in this administration, which is basically they don't. I'm not a we anymore. But it's the you've been attacking us for years, we'll just bomb you and we don't have to rebuild your infrastructure. We don't have to nation build. But we also point out, Melissa, as you recall, that if you attack desalinization, if you attack that prop up the Iranian people and hurt their infrastructure, then it becomes a different calculus because hold on now, break it, I break it. I didn't buy it. But now you're hurting citizens, the people you're trying to, you know, free from this regime. Now are we on the hook for rebuilding some of this stuff, you know that then it becomes a whole nother layer. It's the what happens after? I think, well, and also then we
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A
become the enemy, right? We are their enemy of the people that we originally said we were there to free until I don't think we'd
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C
be their enemies, but we would definitely hurt.
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B
There's still so little reporting out of Iran. Of course, what does come out is if one reporter talks to one person who says, I love America, we're so grateful. And then someone talks, someone who says, I resent the Americans because they're destroying things. Like, we don't know. These are, it's too anecdotal. There's no, there's no public opinion polling. Okay, let me, let me run a few, a few things related to what you guys just mentioned. First of all, just to tell you what I think, I think he's lay the deadline. I don't think there's going to be a peace deal by 8pm tomorrow, but I think there'll still be talks going on.
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A
Can I ask Mark just. But if the he delays the deadline, which could happen. I agree with you. It could happen.
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C
Yeah.
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This is like last week. He's out there saying the Strait of Hormuz is irrelevant. It's on Europe to deal with. It doesn't affect us. And on Easter Sunday, he's like, yeah, in the straight, you bastards.
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B
Welcome, welcome, welcome, welcome, welcome to, welcome to Donald Trump. Welcome. What price is he going to pay for that credibility?
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A
Perhaps that chaos works when you're negotiating. I don't think it works when you're negotiating with terrorists.
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B
And, and you know, over the weekend, the president said to Fox News, he said to, he said to five well, it's not ideal under conventional terms, but, but if it works out in the end, that's how Donald Trump rolls, right? Just he said what he wants. He's a dictator. He says what he's weekend he said to Fox News given guns to the Kurds to give to the Iranian people and that he thinks the Kurds kept them. That seemed like a pretty big story. Disappeared into the ether. But my point is like if that's true and he said it, I don't have reason to believe it's not true. They're still trying for regime change. They're. The regime change can happen even after the war ends, even if it's not part of the declaration of why the war ended. All right, a few things to show everybody. Again, the president did a bunch of interviews yesterday. Here's video that Iran put out. If it's, if it's not AI and if it's not a body double. It ostensibly shows 106, the new Ayatollah, the son of the killed ayatollah walking into this, the Iranian situation. Room 106, please. I, I feel bad for those of you listening to podcast. Incredible stuff. Now, maybe it's AI but here is regarding whether this is war, crime Whether this would be war crimes. Here's 111. The New York Times basically just asserts that the president's about to commit a war crime. Trump revels in threats to commit war crimes in Iran. Kind of an incredible headline given that not everyone agrees with that analysis. The president said he would bomb Iran, quote, back to the stone ages. Until this administration, American leaders had insisted they were trying to follow international law in war. Caroline Levitt and others say they will continue to follow the law in doing what they're doing. But to just assert in the headlines of war crimes certainly would rub some people the wrong way, I should say. 114 after the President's threat. This is Al Jazeera Senior. Iranian officials have condemned Trump's latest remarks as part of a, quote, dangerous game that will harm civilians and amounts to, quote, incitement to war crimes. All right, so here's my question on this war crime issue, Melissa. The president's not going to be arrested by anybody. But is it unwise, whether you think it's a matter of morality or hearts and minds or the law, is it unwise for the president to hit civilian targets?
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A
Yes, I think it's unwise for the president to hit civilian target. Yes, you do.
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B
Even though that's what he says he's about to do. Okay, Hogan, do you think it's wise or unwise?
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C
Well, first of all, they've said the whole thing's unconstitutional, legal from the outset. So this is nothing new. It depends because as you know, the Iranians, terrorists, they like to put military installations, military operations beneath civilian targets. So it's explained why that is done, proven that there's something underneath it. Then I think he's okay, but just.
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A
And I think that in, in the situation in Gaza, Right. That was a tactic that Hamas used regularly, is putting bombs and putting military material beneath hospitals and other things.
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C
Yes.
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To draw that. But we haven't heard that explanation here. So if somebody explains that. But otherwise it just seems relation and it seems like really dealing with a serious style unraveling of civilian life, which is very dangerous.
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B
Just.
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C
I don't disagree. But, but also, it's not like Iranian officials give these services freely to their people. They pull them back anytime they need to kind of choke out any, any, you know, uprising, if you will, amongst its people. So, you know, it's not like everyone's using this stuff every single day. It's only the top brass to get to use a lot of these spoilers
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A
ability to get them, you know, even,
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B
even as, as the negotiations Sensibly, are taking place mostly through intermediaries. But Witkoff's phone also serves as a locus of the, of the conversations. Targets are being struck. The Israelis and US are hitting targets, including energy targets. The, the Iranians are hitting back. This is not a crazy hypothetical. What if the US and Israel start to hit, you know, civilian targets, maybe you can call them dual use, but they start to hit energy targets and the bombing becomes, as the President's post suggest, even more massive than we've already seen. And we've seen some pretty massive hits so far. And let's say the Iranians do hit back, and let's say they start hitting hospitals and energy and schools, whatever, whatever they hit, then what happens? If escalation of targets happens, then, then what happens? Does that just keep going? Because I see in the chat somebody uses nukes. No one's going to use nuclear weapons, folks. It's not going to happen. Even though the President won't take it off the table. Use nuke. We're going to be American weapons that have never been used or that convention like in, like in Venezuela, but that are, that are quite powerful. So Melissa, what happens at that point? It would just have this, it can, can there then be peace in the short term or once the lid is off of this, they're just going to destroy everything?
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A
I think once the lid is off of this, we risk destroying everything. I think you're going to start seeing them firing into the neighboring countries in the Gulf and they're going to return. And Iran's regime's whole purpose right now is survival and they see survival as defiance. I think that they're going to continue to ratchet it up until they can't anymore.
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B
You already addressed this a little bit, but I mean, the President would prefer a peace deal, but I don't think there's a peace deal on the table that can happen. So do we then go to weeks of this, of new types of targets and does that involve American boots on the ground or not?
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C
It still doesn't appear. It feels like he wants to do a lot of things via missile attacks, air attacks, etc, So I don't know, I don't know where it goes and I don't know what they have in mind of attack. I don't know what America think of really. Yeah, leaders attention. I, I don't know what that target would be, but there's no doubt there'd be some type of retaliation. They'll fire. They've been firing off rockets all over the place.
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B
Yeah, yeah. Even though, even though we were told their capability had been diminished.
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C
The point.
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A
We go. The, the three things that I think the purpose of this war is. Right. One, and the ability for them to have a nuclear enrichment program. Right, that's, that's one. Can we all agree on that?
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B
Well, sort of. Sort of.
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C
They don't.
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B
Sometimes they leave it off the list, but yeah, should be on the list.
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A
I would think that that. Right. That was alleged. Okay. The second is to end their long range missile production abilities. And three, which falls off the list and comes back on the list. Falls off is regime change. Right. Those three things. I don't think you can accomplish any one of those three without boots on the ground at some point.
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B
Oh, I disagree.
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A
Do you think that we can get rid of their neutral nuclear.
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B
Oh, I think we can do. I think we can do all three with that boots on, on the ground.
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A
Okay. Well from your lips, Mark.
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B
I mean we might eventually have to put people in the ground to take their stuff away, but the war would be over by then. I do. Maybe I'm wrong. The markets, as I said, the markets are not going crazy. Even though if you know these people in financial, these financial analysts are such bedwetters, they're such panickers. Although the markets aren't panicking, the analysts are. If the President starts destroying Iran's like, like their power grid, it'll take years to react to recover. And again, we have to remember it's not just oil that's being blocked from the strait. It's fertilizer and helium and all sorts of things. Market either yeses to that, they should be crashing. Right.
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A
I almost think they just normalized to it at this point.
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B
Yeah. Logan.
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C
I think as you know, they like stability and maybe their view is the instability is stable. Yeah. They can deal with that. They're fine.
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A
Stability and predictability. Right. What's predictable at this point.
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B
Yeah.
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A
Is the unpredictability.
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B
Are there any. You know, I've seen people say in response to the President's post and everybody's seen it, but go ahead and put it up. 104. What is. Where is that? Where's the. Where's the now famous, as the President would say, famous post? 113. Maybe Tuesday will be a power plant day and bridge day all wrapped in one in Iran. There will be nothing like it. Open the fucking straight you crazy bastards or you'll be living in hell. Just watch. Praise to be Allah. President Donald J. Trump. Some people have said this, this, this, this tweet was written by Someone else, or it was written by the President and the 25th amendment should be invoked. Some people on the other side say this is the greatest moment in history. The United States States. Is there any implication going forward to the provocative language the President has used here? Is it just. It's already forgotten, Hogan.
- [26:23]
C
I mean, you know, when I was in the White House, I remember every morning, people would come rushing into my office at 7:20 and be like, this tweet. What does it mean? What does it mean? And after about, like, eight months, they were like, hey, good morning. After, like, many tweets had come out, they didn't care anymore. I think a lot of this is the same way. I think in real time, they're like, wait a minute, this is close to Easter. Why is he doing this? Close to Easter? How offensive. And then they just, you know, he makes news so quickly. They do so many different things. I think they move on pretty fast.
- [26:52]
B
Melissa, any lingering impact of this thing?
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A
No, I mean, I agree. I think that we have a President of the United States who goes on Twitter and celebrates the death of people who are heroes and people for a day and then move on. I think he'll just say something crazy in 24 hours and. And that'll be that.
- [27:14]
B
The Israelis killed the head of Iranian intelligence today. Israel also has hit a facility, a major Iran. So Israel not slowing down at all in this process. China. There's some reports that China is getting involved in the peace talks. Here's a Wall Street Journal story on China. 116, that is under other circumstances. This probably lead the Wall Street Journal. Here's the headline. China creates new aviation mystery with offshore warning zones. Beijing reserves airspace for 40 days, suggesting possible military activity ahead. China's taking an unusual step of reserving swaths of offshore air without explanation for 40 days. They do that for military exercises, but it typically lasts no more than a few days. And of course, the Trump Xi Summit is coming up in about a month. At least it's scheduled. Hogan, does this. Should this be worrying us? What could this be about?
- [28:20]
C
Look, I'm one of those ones that's always worried about China. Their activity is something that America is constantly monitoring for obvious reasons. It's our chief. One of the chief global threats we face. So, you know, look, maybe they're posturing a little bit here to try and flex muscle because they've been largely out of the conversation. Maybe they're trying to do something ahead of the Xi summit, as you just pointed out. So, again, these are just guesses who knows.
- [28:50]
B
Yeah, Melissa, does this how much does this worry you?
- [28:53]
A
I mean, like Hogan, I'm always a little bit worried about China, but them doing that and us having no real clear understanding as to why is especially worrying. I also found it interesting in an article, I think I read it in your newsletter this morning, Mark, For quite some time. Right. And also off renewable energy sources in anticipation of some sort of a situation like this so that they would be insulated from it. So particularly given that piece of information, I'm like, so why, what are they doing?
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B
Right.
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A
Concerning.
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B
All right, we'll keep watching three political topics and then to your questions. Comments if you're here on the two way platform, please raise your hand if you want to be in on the conversation. David Plough, who managed the Barack Obama's campaign, one of the smartest people in politics, has another op ed piece in the New York Times today in which he says Democrats need ideas to win elections in 26 and 28, but what they really need to do is stop doing what he calls the old ways of campaigning. Here's what he writes. Many candidates daily campaign scheduled today look very much as they have for most of my career. Speeches to community groups, interviews with journalists, fundraising events and meetings with local party activists with lots of driving in between. That won't cut it anymore. A successful campaign in 2026 must operate like a full time production studio. And he's implicitly and explicitly praising people like President Trump, who churns out a lot of content, like Mayor Mondame, who even now is mayor, turns out a lot of content. He had a video that he made with Curtis Lewis that I watched over the weekend. It was like high, high concept art. Melissa takes a little bit of shot at Andrew Cuomo saying that Andrew Cuomo tried to do a lot of content but wasn't good at it. And he basically says if you're, if you're spending your time doing anything but thinking about how to be native to the major social media, make your mistake and you won't win. Election of David plus Theory.
- [30:48]
A
I think he's right. And I learned that the hard way. I mean, and I'll, I'll freely admit it. You know, we, I was an early subscriber too, and I was one of the original 2017, 2018. Twitter is not real life. When there was this complete class, looked at what was going on on Twitter, you would have thought that Cynthia Nixon would beat Andrew Cuomo in the primary. And we beat her 70, 30 because the chattering class and the people who didn't have real jobs and spent all day on Twitter were obsessed with this Sex in the City actress and they thought being governor was such a ridiculously easy job that she could do it. And we smoked her. And so I was an early subscriber to that. And then, you know, you fast forward seven years and I missed the part where Twitter is real life. And it's not really Twitter, it's TikTok. It's if you're between 18 and 40, all you do is stare at your phone all day. And even older people now, you know, staring at whether it's Instagram, Facebook, and if you're not constantly churning out content and you're not appearing in people's feeds and you're not doing it in a compelling way, you're not in the game. And so now you're seeing all of these boomers attempting to, you know, be cool online and social media and have a message. Although I'd argue that now that I see Zora Momdami in office and he's turning out these videos, I'm like, what the are you doing all day? Get a job, do something. You know, like there's issues all over the city and you should be addressing them. And all I'm seeing you doing is hanging out with celebrities and playing basketball and with cardi b and cutting content. So I think for a campaign that's very true. I think once you're in office, it's time you actually govern. It is a reality in today's campaign and social media landscape.
- [32:38]
B
Hogan.
- [32:39]
C
Yeah, you're right in so many ways, Melissa. I do think it's not a either or, it's a both. And I love the boomer the comment because lord knows they're so bad at this. And interesting is I think the from the first time that DNC put out a text to followers that said need money for X campaign, it took the RNC nine years to then start doing it. Okay. Woefully behind in these types of things. In addition, the RNC woefully behind in get out the vote mechanisms. In the non sexy parts of politics, the turnout apparatus, the door knocking, the registrations, the ballot harvesting were legal. We're not good at that. Democrats have consistently been better however, in campaigns and this is one of my working things theories that I'm trying to figure out here. Mark put more meat on the bone at some point, maybe at an op ed or something. But the social media structure was largely started and perfected by the right because we had nothing in mainstream news. Nothing helped Us in mainstream news, we kept losing everything. All the reporters are biased, all the anchors are biased. We had to find a new platform and avenue. So these podcasters, these memes, this TikTok culture, we're better at it, at least I think at this point, because we had to start it. It was out of necessity. Much like Democrats were so good at Facebook under Obama, it was the best thing ever. He revolutionized politics. Trump comes along with Cambridge Analytica and others and outdoes the Democrat Hillary Clinton on Facebook and then like, oh, Facebook is horrible. We should get rid of it. We should censor it, of course. And then subsequently they did. My point is, you have is gonna. It's hang meeting with those because they're the one string people to go out and vote. They're the ones who get you, the folks on the ground to go to the ballot box.
- [34:48]
B
Here's what I don't get about Bluff's theory, if you're any. He alludes to this, but I don't think he really explains how to solve it. If you're Mondami or Trump, you're a great content provider because you're a great performer. If you're not funny, clever, emotional, if you don't have a team that can make compelling content, it's not going to do you any good. It doesn't do you any good to be on TikTok if you're not good at TikTok. Right. So what are candidates who are not good at this stuff supposed?
- [35:15]
A
And I would argue that a lot of them aren't. Right. Yeah. Most of them aren't cringe every time I look at Gavin Newsom's Twitter feed because I'm like, stop trying to be Donald Trump. You're not Donald Trump. And it's just the reality of the, you know, the fact that, to your point, you know, Donald Trump form thing, he's so good at it, but it's authentic. Zora actor, he's the son of a director.
- [35:42]
B
Yeah.
- [35:42]
A
So it's like, you know, these people are good at it, but, you know, it's going to be something people struggle with. And why I think some of these younger candidates are getting more attention than they should otherwise because they, they're just good on TikTok and now they have the ability to, you know, hogan real quick voters who otherwise weren't paying attention.
- [36:01]
C
Yeah, just real quick.
- [36:02]
A
The, the.
- [36:02]
C
The choose your fighter video that Democrats
- [36:04]
B
put out was so bad, so bad, so bad, so bad. All right, here's something confusing to me. There were two Republicans running for governor of California. And we've talked on this show and elsewhere for a long time that there was a good chance that they would both make the runoff. The top two, regardless of party, go to the general election and that Republicans could win the governorship because they'd have the only two candidates on the general election ballot. Those candidates are Steve Hilton and the mayor, the sheriff of Riverside County, Sheriff Blanco. And if you look at the polling, the Democrats have about seven, eight candidates. Mathematically this was setting up as a real possibility. And the Republicans were. The Democrats were thinking have to raise money for some super pack to take out either Hilton or Blanco because. Because they're not. Even though they go negative on each other, they're not going to spend a lot of money on it. Last night the president chose to endorse Steve Hilton. 123Now Steve Hilton's very supportive of the president, although he said in interviews he wasn't asking for the endorsement, but he got it. Here's a true social I had known Steve Hilton, who was running for governor of California for many years. He's a fine man and he says he is my complete and total endorsement. He will be a great governor and importantly will never let you down. I don't think there's a chance in hell Steve Hilton could win the general election against whoever the Democrats get into the final two, no matter who it is just because the math of California. Steve's a talented guy. But Hogan, why would the president make it likely now that Steve Hilton maybe finishes first in the primary but makes it very unlikely that the sheriff, Sheriff Blanco, will get the second most votes? Why would he do that?
- [37:45]
C
You're. You're asking why he would endorse Steve.
- [37:48]
B
Well, why would he endorse Steve when endorsing Steve? Every, every attack, every analyst, I know he might want to win. But the only way Steve can win is if the other person in the runoff is a Republican. If it's Steve against a Democrat, Steve's not going to win. And by endorsing Steve, he's making it likely that Steve will do better with Republicans who will not the vote with Blanco. But Blanco's not going to make the runoff. Now the president has endorsed Steve Hill.
- [38:19]
C
I don't know. Obviously like Steve. You saw in the. In the tweet. They've been friends for a while. He has a team around him that advises him on these.
- [38:27]
B
Yeah.
- [38:27]
C
Endorsements. I don't know if they won that argument or lost that argument. I don't know.
- [38:32]
B
Melissa, my theory is that you must have had polling that said off. And so they're trying to get Steve to finish first, which he could. Steve could easily finish first. In fact, I think he'd probably be, I'd make him the favorite to finish first in the, in the June primary where everybody, again, regardless of party, runs on one ballot and hope that he can ride the momentum of that. That'd be my theory. Thoughts?
- [38:54]
A
I think that that's the best theory I've heard so far. Okay, I'll back that theory.
- [38:59]
B
All right. All right. Lastly, the first lady of California, she calls herself the first partner, made a video over the weekend which Hogan's friend Miranda Devine did not like. Here's the headline from the New York Post story, California Post story 119 by Miranda. Miranda, Gavin's first partner is a new sense. And she just, she just, you know, just criticizes the video. She criticizes her some past statements she's made. She basically says that, that she's a Jennifer. Is it pronounced cybo? I should know. Siebel. Jennifer Siebel is a horrible detriment to Gavin Newsom's ambitions. Here's a bit of the video she put out over the weekend that inspired Miranda to write her column. This is number 119. Please
- [39:53]
A
trust me. I'm not a fan of Pam Bondi nor Kristi Noemi, but I need to call out that it's no surprise to me that the first two prominent people pushed out of this administration were women. Let me explain the conservative women that Trump hand picks who align themselves with an agenda that controls women, restricting our rights, limiting our autonomy, and pushing us back into this straight jacket of femininity that is only in service of men. There's a familiar pattern here. Women are brought in packaged mar a Lago style and lift it up as long as they commit to wholeheartedly serve the interests of the patriarch at the top. No woman is safe in Trump's Republican Party unless she has enough wealth or the ability to buy her own job security and safety. And so, my friends, regardless of your political affiliation, you might want to wake up and see this for what it truly is. It's a war on all women.
- [40:48]
B
Melissa, what do you think of that video and of her role in Gavin Newsom's political future?
- [40:54]
A
I think it's so cringy. I don't want to hear women continue to use words like patriarchy. I feel like it's like we're going backwards and learned about woke politics and not working nationally. And I feel badly for her because she is Doing this, someone clearly thinks either she's an asset and she should be used, or she's decided it for herself. But then when you do that, you become the target of Miranda Devine and others, and you make yourself totally fair game for every single thing that you do. And when I saw that, it sort of reminded me of Casey DeSantis, who was. Became such a target so early on in Ron DeSantis's campaign, she almost became a bigger story than he did. And I wonder if, if Gavin Newsom's wife could be putting herself on a similar trajectory by doing stuff like this. And so I just thought, mistake.
- [41:44]
C
Okay, Florida for president.
- [41:51]
B
Women can. I think at this point only Kamala Harris. I don't think he's going to run. I don't think Whitmer is going to run. Maybe if, if Amy Klobuchar wins governor, she might turn around and run. Those are probably the four most likely.
- [42:07]
C
So her husband, her partner, Gavin should stand down and not run for president. If these women announce because of the patriarchy. I'm so confused at where this goes. She is a gift that keeps on giving. I caution, though, to go after someone, a spouse, too hard. You know, when they went after Ted Cruz's wife, you remember in the campaign, and he came out and basically he gave the exact verbatim speech that Michael Douglas gives. The American President just inserted his wife's name. Talk about cringe. That was horrible. I think Melissa's absolutely right. This is the party going back to, to the woke ideology and women. It's the patriarchy, these words and languages used, you know, five, 10 years ago that I don't think are. And also really out of touch, At least all Republicans, a hefty slice of Democrats as well, although many in the party are still there and moving that direction, so who knows? But I, I say the more of her, the better.
- [43:14]
A
And, and I just want to be clear. There's plenty to criticize the Trump administration on vis a vis women's rights and Roe and all kinds of other things. I just don't think that that message or that messenger quite resonates.
- [43:30]
B
Yeah, I think, I think again, in the end, they're going to get so much of that. He's not going to run for family's not going to want to subject themselves to that. Just a brutal business. And, and she's treated brutally.
- [43:42]
A
But in the column, she put herself out.
- [43:46]
B
I understand, I, I understand, but I mean, I understand why you don't like the video, but I mean, the column is so mean.
- [43:53]
A
The column is so mean. But, and I've said this on your show before, politics ain't beanbag like that.
- [44:01]
B
Look, when I, I'm not, I'm not
- [44:04]
A
saying go ahead, but we for years had a rule that the kids were off limits and the reporters respected that. We kept them out of the limelight. And when he did dad things, that was off limits and the reporters respected that. But then, you know, when you're a partner, you're somebody and you inject yourself and you're putting out your own videos, then you have to be prepared to take the incoming. And it's a lot of it's going to be partisan and a lot of it's going to be nasty. But that's the price of tea in China. So either you do it or you don't.
- [44:36]
B
I, I, I'm not saying that she's, she should be off limits if she pushes herself out. I'm just saying I, action is going to be, it's just too much. It's just too mean. All right, quick word from a new sponsor and then to your questions again. Please raise your hand if you're here on the platform. If you've never raised your hand, please do today. New sponsor is True work. Go to true work.com that's T R U E W-E-R-K.com truewerk.com and this is clothes that you can wear outdoors if you're working. Now, some of you actually do work outdoors. Some of you, like me, just pretend to. But this stuff is great because it's very flexible. It's very, very consistent with doing stuff outside regardless of the weather. It fits really well. And it's performance workwear brand that designs technical, durable apparel built for demanding job sites and outdoor conditions. It just fits differently than normal clothes you might wear to work in. Four way Stretch for bending, kneeling and climbing. Water resistant finish to shed rain. Nine intelligent pockets to keep your tools where you need them. It's been tested over many years. Over 15,000 5 star reviews. If you plan to spend part of your spring or summer working outdoors in the yard, on projects, hiking, whatever it is, I strongly recommend you try it. It just feels like it's just different. It just fits really well. And you get 15% off your first order, go to True Work. T-R-U-E-W-E-R-K.com use the promo code 2WAY again, promo code 2WAY truewerk.com for 15% off. Thank you for your attention to that matter.
- [46:11]
C
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B
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C
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- [46:29]
B
All right, time for your questions, your comments, your concerns. Please raise your hand if you're here on the platform. And again, if you've never raised your hand, don't feel shy. Here we go. Sandy, welcome in. Thank you for being part of Two Way Unmute. Tell folks where you are physically located and what's on your mind for Melissa and for Hogan and thank you for being a part of Two Way.
- [46:48]
D
Good morning, Mark. Really enjoy the show. I'm in Birmingham, Alabama, and I just wanted to put a plug in for the war. Yesterday. I watched General Frank McKenzie on Face the Nation said if you had told him, you know, 30 is out, that we'd be where we are.
- [47:05]
B
To the
- [47:07]
D
he was head of centcom. To me, that was a big statement. And I think that the American people have to have patience. This is a huge country with a lot of people and a lot of weapon systems and the midterms. But midterms term play for, you know, providing safety to the American economy and American people is so much, it's so worth the investment and the risk. And I just want to put a plug in for the president and think and say also that it's going a lot better than we know we hear in the papers.
- [47:41]
B
Sandy, thank you for that. Melissa, question or comment?
- [47:46]
A
No, I look, I hope that, I hope you're right and if we're able to succeed, then the president should get a Nobel Prize. You know, he will have done what, no, what has evaded every other president since 1979. I just wish that we knew more about the strategy. And to your point, on the patience point, I think people are rational and are willing to give people the benefit of the doubt if their expectations are managed. And I think that the communications from this from the get go just badly botched. I think many people watched the president's address the other night. I think it was something like 10 million versus the 25 million that watched the State of the Union. He could have used the State of the Union to set the stage. He could have on the first day said this is going to be a long war and the energy prices are going to go up and down. But stay with me because for the future of our children and our grandchildren, this is a worthy effort. And I just don't feel like that's, that that's happened. And so I think there's just a lot of justified nervousness around what the end game is and when we're going to get there because we keep just be tolding, being told. Two to three weeks. Two to three weeks.
- [48:54]
B
Cindy, how do you think it, how do you think it ends? Realistically, that would make you feel that this was a good thing to do? Like the Iranians surrender or we bomb them back to the Stone Age. What's a realistic outcome that you think would make this worth it?
- [49:07]
D
Any, any result that puts them back five or ten years when it comes to, you know, long range missiles, it's just unacceptable to have them leave them the ability.
- [49:16]
B
Yeah.
- [49:17]
D
To create missiles and manufacture missiles that can reach Europe or can reach other friends of us or our, our bases in the region. So it just, I don't know, it's, it's a great question, Mark, and I think that's the one that we're all wondering to ourselves. But this idea of timelines, General McKenzie rejected. I know journalists and Americans want to know how long is this going to go on? But it's just things like this don't fit within prescribed timelines and you can't, you can't know. I understand it's a fair question to ask how long is it going to go on? But I guess the answer, Mark, is when we know we will be, this problem will be behind us for at least five or ten years and we won't have to address it again.
- [49:56]
B
You speak for tens of millions, Sandy Hogan.
- [49:59]
C
Yeah, I think this culture, Sandy, and thank you for your comments. But this culture is one that wants results immediately. They don't understand, you know, the mentality of those in China or in Iran who say, you know, they think in terms of generations or we think in terms of minutes and seconds. And I do think there's such fatigue, obviously from Afghanistan, from Iraq as well. People are leery about this. But I will tell you, in no world should Donald Trump be communicating more to members of Congress on strategy or things like that, because they'll just leak it. I think that's a horrible idea. And those rooms of those guys and girls and I mean, it's real time. You can follow people on Twitter and you'll see exactly what everyone's saying in the room. And that's unsafe for everybody. There will come next year. Go ahead.
- [50:58]
D
You're so right. Because he couldn't Congress, he couldn't alert the Europeans because he wanted the element of surprise. The President continues to use surprise and deception and that's what you do in warfare. And he's using it effectively. Yeah. Meanwhile the downside, your European friends say, well, you didn't consult us. You can't use our basis for this or that. But it's worth it because he wanted to surprise the, the Iranians. And so I think that, you know the idea about consulting after the fact that now they've got to bring them in, they've got to bring the rats and, and Republicans and our friends in Europe to try to get them to help get them on board. We're going to have to fund it next. Right? That's the big next big hurdle is
- [51:34]
B
funding it like Sandy. Thank you for that. How long have you been a member of the two way community and what caused you to raise your hand today?
- [51:41]
D
About a year, my brother. I probably been on your show, your radio show twice.
- [51:48]
B
Yeah. Welcome in, sir. Thank you. Great.
- [51:50]
D
Thank you very much.
- [51:51]
B
Part of it. All right, here we go. John, welcome in. Tell folks who don't know where you are what's on your mind for Melissa and for Hogan
- [52:03]
E
from South so
- [52:08]
B
knowing
- [52:08]
E
how tough the November election is going to be, what do you think about the idea of having Trump voters, Americans giving their personal testimony of how the administration has benefited them? Because I'm seeing incredibly touching moments and private ceremonies, whether it has to do with security, health care, jobs, job creation, just a tremendous amount of work where imagine if you had former Democrats campaigning for Trump and just flood the zone with these testimonies. And Melissa, my question for you along the lines of Sandy is I agree with you about the messaging of the war but when I think about presidents in having historic courage and as a Republican I can give. Attacking terrorists and he was diligent about it, he also passes to bin Laden, obviously that's a great example of historic courage. I think forward thinking, 20, 25 years from now, we're going to look back at this and we're going to see that President Trump showed historic courage because he tackled a problem that's been long overdue. Military under the leadership of general is outperforming. There is a lot of wisdom that's been because we haven't started World War 3, China and Russia are not getting involved. One is coming to Iran's aid. And so I think long term we're going to moment and it's kind of like a Reaganist Soviet Union. I think we're going to look back at this and see this as being a very pivotal time where the Middle east actually did change.
- [53:50]
A
If I agree with you if the end result is what we need it to be right getting rid of the nuclear enrichment capabilities think regime change. But if if that happens I couldn't agree with you more and I am more hawkish than most Democrats that you'll come across and I think that the issue is their strength and their strategy and I don't think anyone questions the president's strength. The question is the strategy. And if at the end of the day all of the misdirection and the changing of the goal posts and all of that ultimately results in in what it needs to then he will be viewed as a genius. If it doesn't and this becomes Vietnam or this becomes we leave early because the economic consequences in the short term and because we're not able to coalition build and we end up in some ways strengthening them because they now think they can take over the Strait of Hormuz and things that they had never had any authority over in the past and I think it'll be a big debacle but we're just too soon to tell. But I agree with you if it ends the right way this will be one of those moments.
- [54:59]
C
Hogan yeah John, thanks for the comments. Just on the campaigning side of this I'll tell you Democrats are so good at arguing people we argue policy and that is every time wonky it's too in the to win this talked about the people affected by illegal aliens. They didn't talk about necessarily closing the border they didn't talk about making sure you turned them away or had camps for them to stay in before and the judicial process it was this person is dead, this person was raped, this person was assaulted and all of those things are preventable because you let them in the country and they shouldn't be here in the first place. All of that kind of arguing I think is the right thing to do is and if Republicans do focus on people and they do it with the border they do it with the economy and they can find some for people out there to voice that and then promote that non stop ad outcome than than the experts are saying does give you a shot when you're actually talking.
- [56:12]
B
So confused by or not confused I'm struck by the disparity in the views of how this is going as we come up to the president's deadline. Here's Marjorie Taylor Greene115 on Truth Social or on Twitter rather sounding like Heather Cox Richardson in her critique of the president. And and I don't I forget that she used to be super maga. She. She didn't like the president's post on. On Easter. She said everyone is administration that claims to be a Christian needs to fall on their knees and beg forgiveness from God and stop worshiping the president. Intervene in Trump's madness. I know all of you and him, and he has gone insane and all are complicit. I'm not defending Iran, but let's be honest. The straight is closed because the US And Israel started the unprovoked war against Iran based on the same nuclear lies they've been telling for decades. At any moment, Iran would develop a nuclear weapon, you know, as nuclear weapons. Israel, they are more than capable of defending themselves without the US Having to fight their wars, kill innocent people and children and pay for it. She goes on to be critical of the president, says, and his words and actions should not be supported by Christians. Christians in the administration should be pursuing peace, urging the president to make peace, not escalating war. That is hurting people. This is not what we promised the American people when they overwhelmingly voted in 2024. I know. I was there more than most. This is not making America great again. This is evil. Hogan, how would the president feel about being called evil by Marjorie Taylor Greene, do you think?
- [57:46]
C
I don't think he really cares all that much about anything Marjorie Taylor Greene has to say. You know, for people who joined the MAGA movement that Donald Trump created and then try to say they're the ones who are really maga, not him. If he invented it, he decides what it is, it's not you.
- [58:03]
B
But how did she. But how did she go from being one of the president's biggest supporters to calling him evil? How did that. How does that happen?
- [58:08]
C
I think. I think. I don't know this, but I know Marjorie. For a minute, she's been nice to me. Usually we see each other. I feel as though Marjorie is drunk on her own press from the mainstream media, because now being mocked and ridiculed as a joke, all you have to do is turn on Trump. All of a sudden, you're the toast of the town. And I think she likes that moniker. She likes being in the Four, and she. She purports to have expertise on Donald Trump when she really doesn't. And so she's riding the wave that the mainstream media has given her. And I think that's what she likes.
- [58:43]
B
Melissa, do you welcome the support of Marjorie Taylor Greene?
- [58:47]
A
No. Look, I think that it's like. I think it's very easy to dismiss any criticism from her as sour grapes, right? They were best friends until they weren't. They had a falling out, she resigned. And now she'll go probably get a contributorship on Ms. Now. And, and that's what will happen now. And that's how she'll get attention. And whether or not her criticism is valid, I think it will be easily dismissed on the right as somebody who had a fight with the president and is now capitalizing on attacking him with the, the left media.
- [59:19]
C
It's, it's people always thought she was crazy, but she's crazy now that she's just crazy. And she's not ours now.
- [59:25]
A
She's just Democrats forever dismiss Marjorie Taylor Greene as space lasers and a nut bag and a conspiracy theorist. But now they'll welcome her on their platform if she's gonna attack him. So it also goes back to why nobody has credibility.
- [59:40]
B
All right, real quick, noon today, making so happy, Citizen McCain welcomes Ben Ferguson. Please watch that five o' clock tonight. Two way tonight, full coverage of the president's press conference, the latest on possible peace talks, and then lifelong with Ethan supley live at 7. Comedian Will Sasso will be his guest. So that's Megan at noon, me at five, Ethan at seven, and then the morning meeting tomorrow. Kevin and Larry will be here. Thanks to Hogan and Melissa. Thanks to all of you. And I'm headed over right now to SiriusXM for the second hour of the morning meeting. I will see you over there. Please call me then get in the conversation. Melissa. Thank you, Hogan. See you soon.
- [60:18]
C
Bye, guys.
- [60:18]
A
Thanks, guys.
- [60:19]
B
Have a great day.