John Bolton "Better Get Sized for That Orange Jumpsuit;" VA Democrat Slammed "Super Hard" Over Texts

Summary

2WAY Morning Meeting

Episode Date: October 17, 2025
Hosts: Mark Halperin, Sean Spicer, Dan Turrentine
Special Topics: John Bolton indictment, "No Kings" rally, Ukraine, U.S. economy, election trends

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Overview

This episode of the 2WAY Morning Meeting offers an insider’s look at the U.S. news cycle and political machinations as executives and strategists break down the day’s top stories. Mark Halperin (host and moderator) is joined by Sean Spicer (former Trump White House press secretary) and Dan Turrentine (Democratic strategist) for a rapid-fire roundtable on the latest in the White House, the economy, foreign affairs, high-profile legal cases, and shifting political winds across key U.S. races. The tone is fast, candid, occasionally irreverent, and always focused on decoding both media narratives and political realities for listeners.

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Major Discussion Points

1. White House Daybook: Ukraine Meeting & Political Optics

[04:10 – 06:18]

• President Trump set to host Ukraine’s President Zelensky in a fourth meeting, with speculation about what military aid (i.e., Tomahawk missiles) might be on the table.
• Extensive security measures in D.C. noted ahead of Zelensky's visit.
• President expected to depart for Mar-a-Lago following the meeting.
• Vice President not scheduled for public events, but anticipated to participate in these private meetings.

Notable Quotes:

• “If you’re looking to go to Brady Manville this morning, don’t do your breaks.” – Sean Spicer, referencing D.C. traffic ([05:39])
• “The President will talk. But he’s supposed to leave shortly after the meeting.” – Mark ([05:03])

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2. Presidential Approval Ratings & The Economy

[06:23 – 12:12]

• New Emerson polling shows Trump’s approval/disapproval remains in a historically narrow “band”– highest approval at 49%, lowest at 45%, disapproval between 41-48%.
• Mark notes improved ratings on Israel-Hamas policy, declining numbers on Ukraine.
• Economic outlook is uncertain: positive stock market, possible Fed rate cuts, but mounting voter anxiety over inflation and job security.

Panel Analysis

• Sean: Presidential approval will tick up with "victories" (especially foreign), but is sensitive to swings, especially among independents.
• Dan: The key issue is uncertainty; Trump’s foreign policy success is secondary to voters’ local, economic concerns. He’s losing ground with Black, Latino, and independent voters, though Democrats aren’t gaining.
• Sean: “...long term wise in terms of the efforts of investment that the president has yielded from all of these companies... even if a fraction of them pay out, I think this is going to pay off well for him...” ([08:48])
• Dan: “It’s not a question of what the statistics say, but what voters feel. Voters are uncertain.” ([10:35])

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3. Russia, Ukraine, and the Tomahawk Dilemma

[12:12 – 17:12]

• Intense debate over whether the U.S. should provide Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.
• Sean warns giving Tomahawks would be a red line for Russia, potentially escalating to outright war: “If a Tomahawk lands in Russian territory, we’re all in. Understand what you are actually advocating for... we will go to war.” ([14:13])
• Dan remains skeptical of Putin and sees his overtures as stalling to weaken U.S./Ukrainian resolve.
• Panel notes the shift in Trump’s stance echoes prior Democratic criticism about not doing “enough” for Ukraine.

Notable Quote:

• Sean: “Get sized up for that orange jumpsuit, buddy. You’re going away.” ([19:54]) — on John Bolton’s legal fate

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4. Israel-Hamas: Ceasefire, Disarmament, and Diplomatic Deadlines

[17:12 – 19:21]

• Mark asks if U.S. or Israeli forces will move first should Hamas fail to self-disarm.
• Sean and Dan agree Israel is likely to escalate if hostages/bodies are not returned soon. Sean estimates “at least a week, maybe 10 days” before action ([18:27]); Dan thinks even less.
• Discussion about Arab allies’ stance and the impacts of Abraham Accords.

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5. Legal Drama: John Bolton Indictment

[19:27 – 21:00]

• The hosts game out Bolton’s fate following his indictment.
• Consensus: high likelihood of conviction or plea deal; could be “sized up for that orange jumpsuit.”
• Some debate about whether such cases would be brought against less high-profile individuals.

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6. Shutdown, the 'No Kings' Rally, & Congressional Deadlock

[21:15 – 29:01, 33:47 – 35:37]

• Discussion about the “No Kings” political messaging: Mark wonders if it’s an effective focus, while Dan and Sean see it as both a distraction and an opportunity.
• The gap in blame for the shutdown has rapidly closed in recent polls, with pressure now on Democrats to negotiate.
• Both sides risk losing the narrative; “always wins in arguments: open the government, we’ll have your discussion.” – Sean ([27:06])
• Health care, particularly subsidies, is a growing issue in the shutdown debate.

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7. Key 2025 Election Races and Momentum Shifts

[29:01 – 35:37]

• NYC Mayor’s race: status essentially unchanged after debate, race “is over.”
• Virginia AG: Democrat hammered over past texts, Mark reads out a quote: “If people expect to fight fascism without a good semiautomatic rifle, they ought to do some reading of history...” ([30:23])
• Graham Platner’s controversial comments in Maine—discussion whether that hurts his campaign (Dan/Sean: “No—may even help”).
• New Jersey governor race discussed as “stunning” in its shift; DNC chair already lowering expectations ([31:59])
• Multiple statewide polls highlighted, showing races as statistical ties and emphasizing how momentum, not just numbers, drives narratives.

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8. Media Dynamics & The Trump-Bartiromo Relationship

[21:48 – 22:53]

• Discussion of why Trump favors Maria Bartiromo: personal loyalty, long history, and mutual friends.
• Dan highlights Bartiromo’s status as a key financial reporter; her moniker: “Money Honey.”

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9. Foreign Manufacturing and China Q&A

[41:01 – 51:26]

• Listener Bill Graham calls in from Shanghai, details business expansion in toy manufacturing.
• Reasons for not “coming back” to U.S. manufacturing: China’s unmatched scale and production expertise, tariffs notwithstanding.
• Bill asks: what could U.S. policy do to bring manufacturing back home? “If a policymaker came to you… labor force… tax policy… what would you answer?” ([48:26])
• Dan: The debate isn’t just about tariffs; Southeast Asia is the go-to alternative, not the U.S.

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10. J.D. Vance, Party Succession, and Populist Outflanking

[54:45 – 60:18]

• Listener raises potential vulnerabilities for J.D. Vance in a 2028 run: could he be outflanked by Marjorie Taylor Greene from the right?
• Mark and Sean: Vance is the solid favorite due to Trump endorsement, wide establishment and MAGA support, plus massive fundraising.
• Dan: Vance will have to navigate being too closely tied to Trump—any ‘daylight’ may provoke pushback, but so far, Vance knows how to “thread a needle.”

Key Insight:

• “There’s never been… a vice presidential operation so in sync with the presidential operation…” – Mark ([59:08])

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11. Winners & Losers of the Week, What to Watch

[37:12 – 39:37]

Sean:

• Winner: Hostages released in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
• Loser: Professional diplomats – “Trump continues to show [that using outside experts] can yield results.”
• Looking For: Patriots vs. Titans game.

Dan:

• Winner: Mandani (NYC mayor candidate) for effective debate performance.
• Loser: J.D. Vance for poorly handling the group text controversy.
• Looking For: Images and media framing of the “No Kings” rally.

Mark:

• Winner: “BB” [Benjamin Netanyahu, by implication].
• Loser: “Pro-Hamas American community”—perceived as ungrateful or perplexed by peace developments.

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Additional Noteworthy Moments

• On John Bolton's legal troubles:
  “Get sized up for that orange jumpsuit, buddy. You’re going away.” – Sean Spicer ([19:54])
• On tariffs and manufacturing:
  “China is the best producers of stuff in the world... and they’ve mastered it... There are very few alternatives.” – Bill Graham ([44:42])
• On Trump’s political and media alignment:
  “He’s going to raise $2 billion. He’s got support from Don Jr., from Tucker, from so many... This is not going to be a fair fight.” – Mark ([55:50])
• On poll shifts in tight races:
  “Momentum is a huge deal in politics... the candidate with the momentum... has to try to reverse it.” – Dan ([33:47])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• White House Daybook/Ukraine Visit: [04:10 – 06:18]
• Presidential Approval & Economy: [06:23 – 12:12]
• Russia/Ukraine/Tomahawk Discussion: [12:12 – 17:12]
• Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: [17:12 – 19:21]
• Bolton Indictment Debate: [19:27 – 21:00]
• Shutdown, No Kings Rally, Negotiations: [21:15 – 29:01]; more in [33:47 – 35:37]
• Momentum in State Races: [29:01 – 35:37]
• Trump-Bartiromo Relationship: [21:48 – 22:53]
• Manufacturing & Tariff Policy Call-in: [41:01 – 51:26]
• J.D. Vance 2028 & Populist Threats: [54:45 – 60:18]
• Winners, Losers, What to Watch: [37:12 – 39:37]

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The Episode’s Tone and Style

• Brisk, unscripted, direct; equal blend of sharp analysis, political insider banter, and wry humor.
• The hosts respect ideological differences but don’t shy away from disagreement and real-time pushback.

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Summary for New Listeners

This episode provides a comprehensive snapshot of the U.S. political moment: the balancing act of presidential approval, the tripwires of foreign policy, the drama of legal showdowns (i.e., Bolton), the bitter fight over government funding, and the electoral “momentum” game for 2025’s key races. If you want to understand the shifting winds in real time—especially as felt inside newsrooms and campaign war rooms—2WAY’s Morning Meeting is as close as you get to being in the room where it happens.

Transcript

[Sean Spicer]

This is it.

[Dan]

The world as you know it is over. Completely done.

[Sean Spicer]

It's not about to be over.

[Dan]

It's over.

[Sean Spicer]

Some of the scientists who helped build AI are now sounding the alarm. I was selling AI as a great thing for decades and I was wrong. I was wrong.

[Bill Graham]

There's a longer term existential threat that will arise when we create digital beings that that are more intelligent than ourselves. We have no idea whether we can stay in control.

[Sean Spicer]

While others say that AI will usher in unfathomable abundance, I've always believed that it's going to be the most important.

[Bill Graham]

Invention that humanity will ever make.

[David Garcia]

This really will be a world of abundance.

[Bill Graham]

And among these fears and these fantasies.

[Sean Spicer]

We seek the story of our future.

[Bill Graham]

Listen to the last invention on Apple.

[Mark]

Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts. Peace, love, understanding. Everybody clap your hands now. Welcome to the morning meeting. Come on now, put your hands together now. Everybody say no smack in the chest. No smack in the chat. One more time. Notes Back in the chat.

[Dan]

Mark takes.

[Mark]

Notes with a poker face. He knows the league before the leak takes place. I never read the chat, he likes.

[Sean Spicer]

To say, but somehow he always clocks.

[Mark]

The chat rats when they go straight, left, right. Nobody knows. All right, enough of that. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the morning meeting. Trying to get everybody fired up and ready to go. As we say, on one side of the aisle. Happy to have you here. We're going to have a rousing hour with Dan and Sean running through the events of the day. The Daybook, based, as you know, on the network news division's morning meeting. I'll read the Daybook quickly, then we'll talk about it and then we'll hear from you. And it's Friday, so winners and losers of the week, what to look for this weekend and lots to cover. Always being forward looking because that's what we do here. We only look back for the purposes as only as absolutely essential to look forward. If you'd like to be in on the conversation, please raise your hand. We'd love three new people today. Tempted to say if we don't get three new people, the show's canceled. But I'm not going to. But I'd like three new people. So if you've never raised your hand before, please do. And if you're watching on X or YouTube, please don't put smack in the chat. Last night, our special coverage of the debate with the New York Post. The level of smack in the chat was surprisingly, delightfully low, but there was some. So please, no smack in the chat. Peace, love and understand all. Do as Sean and Dan do to each other on a regular basis. Extend the presumption of grace. Ladies and gentlemen, may I present to you Sean Spicer, adorned in merch from Fairway and Green with the logo of the morning meeting. Sean, tell them what you're wearing and how they can get some of their own.

[Sean Spicer]

Good Friday, Mark. I'm wearing the fairway in green quarter zip pullover in color Marine. I would have called this navy blue, but Fairway and Green calls it Marine. That's right. This quarter zip as it gets a little chilly welcoming in fall or any of the amazing products that Fairway and Green has with a logo with not a logo. Men's, women's, it's all available. Mark, you're asking is that I'm going to pay full price. No, Mark. No, you're not. You're going to get 20% off if you go to Two Way TV Fairway and enter the code. Two Way 20. That's right. Anything on that entire site, from the boxers to the quarter zip to the.

[Mark]

Amazing polos they've got off, they've got five different brands. You can get to disc it anywhere. Dan, it looks so good on Sean. It can't possibly be though, as comfortable as it looks, is it?

[Dan]

No. Oh, it absolutely is. It's. I mean, I'm waiting for Sean to sleep in it and give us his review, but it's great.

[Sean Spicer]

Wait. No, Dan, you don't have to wait any longer.

[Dan]

Nice.

[Mark]

Yeah. The nap test. All right. On the daybook today at the White House. The Federalist is the new media pool. Lindell TV is a secondary tv. That's the. That's the mattress guy.

[Dan]

Yes, it is.

[Sean Spicer]

No, no, Pillow. Pillow.

[Dan]

Mattress.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Dan]

Mattress Fox is the main pool.

[Mark]

Wall Street Journal print pool. Afp. AP is the secondary print. So AP gets to be in the pool. Get to be in the pool. The Associated Press remember all that controversy and the President's headed to Mar a Lago later.

[Sean Spicer]

First time beach season.

[Mark]

The lion and new media. But before he goes his fourth meeting, fourth meeting of the presidency with his counterpart from the Ukraine, also known as Ukraine, President Zelensky comes to the White House at one o'. Clock. Bilateral lunch with the President. Currently there's nothing open press but the greeting.

[Sean Spicer]

But.

[Mark]

But let's all. Let's all place our bets. The President will talk. But he's supposed to leave shortly after the meeting.

[Sean Spicer]

And by the way, 30 years of living in and around D.C. worst traffic ever.

[Mark]

Yeah, I've Never seen anything like that. Maybe it's. Maybe we don't want to cause a security brew. Haha. But where did Zelensky stay that caused.

[Sean Spicer]

At the embassy.

[Dan]

Oh, at the embassy, which is in Georgetown.

[Sean Spicer]

And I can tell you from about 20 minutes ago, having driven through Georgetown 20 minutes ago, there is every DC ice truck, sand truck, dump truck.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Sean Spicer]

On M Street.

[Mark]

So if you're looking to go to.

[Sean Spicer]

Brady Manville this morning, don't do your breaks.

[Mark]

Outhouse, outhouse, hen, house, hothouse. Vice president has no public events today, but I bet he's at these meetings. And then tomorrow he's going to Camp Pendleton. 250th anniversary celebration of the U.S. marine Corps House and Senator out. Speaker Johnson continues to play hide the. Hide the. Hide the House.

[Sean Spicer]

We're not going to talk about what Zelinsky is going to wear today, by the way. I think that's a topic that needs to get covered. I'm.

[Mark]

He's going to wear what I'm wearing.

[Sean Spicer]

Yeah. You think that's. I. You know what would be nice? We should have thought about this, guys. I'm sorry. Fairway green. Get him over there.

[Mark]

Oh, I should have dropped it off for their fifth visit. We'll do that. Or maybe we'll see.

[Sean Spicer]

Going over it.

[Mark]

Hakeem Jeffries changing it up a little bit today. Leapfrogging. Doing his press daily press conference ahead of the speaker. So 9:30, maybe we'll take it live because I know exactly what I'll say. 9:30, Speaker Leader Jeffries, 10 o' clock because it's clockwork. Speaker Johnson and House Republican leaders at 10. And then the House caucus is doing a virtual meeting at 2. And there's some economic data came out a half an hour ago. Housing starts. Don't know what it said. All right, gentlemen, we're going to switch things up just a bit here and, and talk about the two related topics of the President's approval rating and the economy. So let's do it. First, a new survey from the Good folks at Emerson108, please. The President's job approval. Again, it's the reality of Donald Trump. Floor and ceiling, floor and ceiling. His disapproval has been as low as 41, as high as 48. His approval over the. This is since this term, as high as 49 and as low as 45. So within that narrow band right now, he's not at his absolute lowest, but close to it. But still, you know, in the, in the divisive age in which we live, a 48% disapproval rating ain't the worst. And of course the Democratic Party's numbers are not great either. 109. The President's approval rating on Israel has improved and Hamas on the war has improved dramatically. Perhaps no surprise. There used to be 41 disapproval, now it's 47 approval. And Ukraine continues to be a problem for the president with disapproval now at 50%, although down from 52 in April.

[Dan]

The economy and by the way, that approval on Israel, its independence that moved almost two to one.

[Mark]

Yeah, exactly. Thank you for pointing that out. Continue to be confused by the economy. On any given week he can cite 10 positive signs, 10 negative signs. The uncertainty over tariffs, over China, uncertainty over AI, whether it's a bubble mirage, a driver of new jobs, a killer of jobs, lots of uncertainty. So Sean, just your best analytics is the where's the president in his approval rating and where's the economy?

[Sean Spicer]

I mean, I think where he is on his approval rating. Look, we talk about Israel two seconds. You do something historic, your approval rating will go up. Shocker, you do something. So I think if Ukraine ends up moving in a positive direction in terms of peace, he will get a bump out of that too. But I think, look, we've seen this over the last 10 years. His he's, there's a band, there's a floor and a ceiling as you mentioned, and he's going to get somewhere in there the whole time. His approval rating is very strong among Republicans, as Dan pointed out on Israel. But I think that's overall the independence is where you're going to find any kind of the movement. Democrats are continuing to not like him, Republicans really strongly like him. And where you see that tick up or down is going to be whether independents love him or hate him on any particular issue. So as he gets victories, it'll notch up as things you know are problematic domestically or internationally, it'll pop down. But again, we're talking about a very small band where the economy is. I think it's where it's been for the last few months. There's some signs of concern, but I believe that long term wise in terms of the efforts of investment that the president has yielded from all of these companies saying they're going to invest even if a fraction of them pay out in the next year or two, I think this is going to pay off well for him. And as interest rates continue to tick down, remember the Fed has signaled two additional quarter point, 25 point basis cuts that will continue to stimulate the economy. The stock market continues to be strong. So I think look, some little small issues here, but generally speaking, pretty good.

[Mark]

Danny Boyd, the pipes, the pipes are calling.

[Dan]

Oh, boy.

[Mark]

You've been less bullish on the economy in general than Sean is, but not. Not crazily bearish. So where do you see both the President's public opinion standing and the economy as we head into the end of this year and into Q1?

[Dan]

I think it's the word you kept using, which is uncertainty. And I think that's. That's the issue. Voters. Sean, you've always said this. It's not a question of what the statistics say, but what voters feel. Voters uncertain. It's not, I think we hear it on this platform. People are giving Trump the chance. I think they're rooting for him to be successful, for the country to be successful, but they don't feel it yet. And the challenge for Trump is, by all accounts, part of the focus on crime this fall was because they wanted to shift the subject. Now, he's focused a lot on overseas stuff and he is racking up successes, but as Joe Biden found out, as George H.W. bush found out, the history of foreign affairs, all politics is local. At the end of the day, are you making my life better? He got elected because people thought he would be better on inflation, better on the economy. If you look under the hood of this stuff, he's slipping with Latinos, he's slipping with blacks, he's slipping with Independents. Now, Democrats aren't gaining. That's our problem. Right. We're so focused on Trump derangement syndrome or with Trump derangement syndrome that we're not seizing this opportunity, the danger for him.

[Mark]

Did you, did you listen to my monologue on Next up, by any chance?

[Dan]

I did, I did. It was. It was great. I mean, you were right.

[Mark]

Just. Yeah, just. Just wondering. Go ahead.

[Dan]

Yeah, yeah. No, and I think I've been pretty consistent about this. So I think the challenge for Trump is you can only not talk about this for so long, and you can only keep moving goalposts for so long before voters may say, I'm going to give them a chance because it's going to be divided government. And I don't necessarily like the uncertainty that permeates out there.

[Mark]

Yeah, I wasn't. I wasn't saying you stole off the mol. I was just wondering because I was just basically saying, I agree with you. It's hard. They're so addicted to being anti Trump that they're not debating issues even amongst amongst themselves or putting forward positions. All right, next up here is Russia, Ukraine, the president, lots of moving pieces and counter directions. First of all, the President is meeting with Zelensky and Zelensky has been meeting with the sellers of US weaponry. There seems to still be a movement towards the javelins. Thune again atom hawks. Thank you. Thank you. Thune has teased bringing the sanctions bill to the floor before and backed off, but he's saying it again. But then the President talks to Putin and says Putin doesn't want the, the Tomahawks to be sent. And now he says he might meet. He said he would, but Caroline walked it back a little bit. He might meet with Putin. And some would say, maybe, I don't know if they'd be a cynic or a skeptic, but some would say Putin's just stalling for time again to, to. To. To not actually be serious about negotiating. So Sean, what's the best case to come out of today's meeting?

[Dan]

By the way, who asked for the call to Trump asked to speak with Putin or to Putin asked to speak to Trump.

[Mark]

Great question. Don't know the answer.

[Dan]

I believe Russian asked.

[Sean Spicer]

So, so let's level set this real quick. I think Trump is pissed. I think part of the reason whoever, whomever called Putin yesterday was to make it clear that I'm strongly considering giving these Tomahawks. I just want everyone to understand when we say he should give them or not give them, like what the reality of that. And I don't, I think I, I don't think it's that controversial to say this. You give a Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, regardless of how it's done, we give them to someone who gives them to someone who gives them to France, who sends, I mean, bottom line is this. Russia will perceives they've made it very clear. Putin said if, if they end up with us Tomahawks, I don't care how many pass throughs you do and who venmos whom. The bottom line is we will assume that as an act of aggression. And we believe that no matter how they ultimately end up in Ukraine, if they are fired upon us and land in Russian territory, that is an offensive action. And I think we all have to be honest, that's what matters. If a Tomahawk lands in Russian territory, we're all in. Okay. Understand that when you, when people say they should give him the missiles, they will use them. Right? That's the thing, is that Zelensky will fire them when he fires them. Understand what is about to happen. We are starting potentially World War 3 and so every time someone says he should just give him the Tomahawks, understand what you are actually advocating for, because Putin will see that as an aggressive action, he will mobilize his entire country, and we will go to war. And I don't think that is a hyperbole or that is the bottom line. And whether or not we ultimately think we'll win that or how soon, that's what will result in this. And I think Trump knows that. His people know that, which is why he's playing a little game of cat and mouse. Zelensky wants him. I might get him to him. And then Zelensky agrees. And then you heard him talk about this in the Oval yesterday. He kind of was joking a little, and he said, you know, I told him, should I give them them or not? And of course he said no, because he understands that if you hand them to Zelensky, he will fire them. And so I think that's where we are, is that Trump's trying to play a little bit of cat and mouse here and say, I'm about to give them to you. You know, what's about to happen. And then Putin going, great, if you do that, you know what I'll do in return?

[Mark]

Yeah. Rubio and others are supposed to meet in advance of a potential Trump Putin meeting. Dan, I, My guess is that nothing happened yesterday changes your deep skepticism that Putin's doing anything but playing Trump.

[Dan]

Yeah. First off, I find it ironic, if I recall, just about a year ago, the attack on Harris and Biden was, you didn't give the Ukrainians everything they wanted, and now it's like, well, let's be a little careful about this. Look, peace through strength. The only thing Putin. God bless Rahm Emanuel. If you haven't read it, it is a phenomenal op ed with just outstanding subtle jabs at the president. Look, how do we gain leverage partially over Hamas? We bombed Iran. Right. Well, I mean, everything. Sean, you just said, obviously, the Russians are a slightly different beast, but Putin knows that Trump doesn't want to do this. Putin knows. So he has no incentive to stop. And I do think he called Trump to get in front of Zelensky to warm up the president, to tickle the idea of a meeting and peace. And, like, so now he's going to lean on Zelensky. Hey, Putin's getting close. I, I, I might have peace. You got to knock it off. And I think Zelensky's like, dude, the only thing he respects is sheer force.

[Mark]

Yeah. All right. Hamas. The president yesterday also clarified that it's not the US that's going to go in and, and forcibly disarm Hamas if they don't self disarm. He didn't say who, but do we agree he means the Israelis or does he mean somebody else?

[Sean Spicer]

I think that was.

[Dan]

Didn't Netanyahu say that he means us?

[Mark]

Yeah. So here's the headline from the ap. Hamas reaffirms commitment to Ceasefires Delays and returning hostages. Bodies fray nerves. No new issues have arisen. But still this question of how long do they have, like, what's the soonest Israel would, would go in and start trying to disarm them? And, and isn't that a messy, in some ways, maybe a more a messier operation than the one that they previously were engaged in?

[Dan]

Yeah, it's urban combat.

[Mark]

Yeah. So how long, I mean, when does that start? Does that start this weekend? Next week? How long do they, how long do they have?

[Sean Spicer]

As I said yesterday, there has to. Hamas needs to show. Hey, they're saying we can't get some of the bodies because of the rubble. Like, they need to start being specific. Like, hey, we need some help here. We need, like the more they lean in, looking like they're trying. I think that buys some time. If they start being obstinate about this, then that's when your to your question. The timetable starts to move up.

[Mark]

Because we talk in days, weeks.

[Sean Spicer]

I would say that they got at least a week, maybe 10 days. And then you start to go. Okay, this is getting ridiculous.

[Mark]

All right, again, if you want in the conversation, I think it's, Go ahead, Dan.

[Sean Spicer]

You think it's less than 10 days?

[Dan]

I, I think that they see a vacuum getting filled, the Israelis, and I think they're getting anxious.

[Mark]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, the, the rhetoric from Israel is quite something surprising.

[Sean Spicer]

Well, you know that they're itching to dough. I mean, they're, they're, they're like, what.

[Mark]

Will, what will the fragile Europeans say if Israel goes in and civilians are killed?

[Dan]

I had the questions. What do the Saudis and the Qatari say? And the Turks? As long as they stay on board.

[Mark]

I think they're fine with it.

[Dan]

That Israel going in?

[Mark]

Yeah, I think they are.

[Bill Graham]

Okay.

[Sean Spicer]

Europe will. I mean.

[Dan]

Does the Arab street. Are they okay? Because if the Arab street gets up, those, those kings.

[Mark]

No such thing anymore, by the way.

[Sean Spicer]

Total side note, Saudi major. I'm the Arab Abraham Accords. Right. I mean, you've got all these little.

[Mark]

Pieces that's been, that's been Jared's dream forever.

[Sean Spicer]

I know But I'm just saying that you can't.

[Mark]

Here's all we're. Here's all we're doing.

[Dan]

Yeah.

[Mark]

Here's all we're doing on Bolton. What we do whenever the President has one of his enemies indicted. Plea, dismissal, Plea conviction. Thrown out. I'm sorry. Thrown out. Plea conviction, acquittal. How does this case end, Dan?

[Dan]

Conviction.

[Mark]

Sean.

[Sean Spicer]

Agreed. Get, get sized up for that orange jumpsuit, buddy. You're going away.

[Mark]

20, 25% plea, 75% conviction.

[Sean Spicer]

By the way, just a point of. I know you can't.

[Dan]

That he may flee.

[Sean Spicer]

Just to be clear. Point of clarification, Mr. Chairman. This investigation started under Biden. It was the Biden doj. The Biden.

[Mark]

But then they chose not. But then they chose not to prosecute.

[Sean Spicer]

I understand, but I'm just saying, just to be clear.

[Mark]

But that could argue the other way.

[Dan]

Well, I'll say let's be clear. Would these charges have been brought if it was just Joe Schmo on the street?

[Mark]

No. Would the charges have been brought against Donald Trump?

[Dan]

No, I hear you. I'm just saying. But that's always the test, right?

[Mark]

I mean, well, they might, they might have actually been in this case.

[Sean Spicer]

By the way, I just for the record, I do agree with, I would, I would quasi. Agree with you. I might even up the 25% to a 40.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Sean Spicer]

That. I think he may get into some plea deal.

[Mark]

Dan, Just so you know, I'm inclined to indict anyone who's still using an AOL account, so.

[Dan]

And Gmail. That was weird. Both.

[Mark]

Yeah. Plenty of people use both.

[Dan]

Okay. My mother uses.

[Mark]

They can't quit their account, but they recognize it in some instances.

[Dan]

Google this.

[Sean Spicer]

By the way, if MTV is going to wind down this week, I think AOL should, too. I mean, just make it one foul swoop.

[Mark]

Shut down politics. The Republicans are obsessed with this notion that the Democrats will come to the table after this weekend in the Kings. No, Kings rallies across the country. Here's Donald J. Trump with Maria Bartiromo. 107. Before you play it. Don't play it yet. Sean, briefly, why does the President like Maria so much? Because I'm not saying, I'm not saying he shouldn't. I'm just asking what the basis is of his deep fondness for Maria. Is it. I don't know. What is it?

[Sean Spicer]

It's just long standing. I mean, she's been very fond of him. I mean, I, I, but you're right. I mean, he's always, he's always appreciated Her.

[Mark]

So she came to the photo. She, she taped her interview yesterday, and she came to the photo op, you know, to stand in the back and sort of watch it, because her interview was right after. And the president called on her and he just, you know, gave her a massive build up.

[Dan]

Don't forget, though, in the late 90s, early 2000s, she was one of the IT financial reporters.

[Mark]

You can say Money Honey.

[Dan]

Yeah. And, and, and that, that was her nickname, for those who don't know, was, was, was the Money Honey. And.

[Mark]

Hold on, hold on, hold on. I'm sorry, you think there are people on this platform who don't know that her nickname was the Money Honey?

[Guest (Scott Bessant or similar)]

Yes.

[Sean Spicer]

If you weren't a big CNBC watch.

[Dan]

Come on, gentlemen.

[Mark]

Come on. These are, these are, these are, these are learned people in the two way community.

[Dan]

You're in your early 20s, Mark. You weren't born.

[Mark]

They have history books, Dan.

[Dan]

But anyway, I mean, they, they socialized in the same circles. Yeah, they have a lot of mutual friends. I, I think he's known her to Sean's point for 30 years. And yeah, she also stayed very loyal after his first term.

[Mark]

Yes, 100%. All right, here. Sorry to delay. Here's the president with Maria on the no Kings rally and Chuck, Chuck Schumer. Mr. President, do you think that the.

[Bill Graham]

Government shutdown is all about this rally.

[Dan]

That'S happening this weekend, the New Kings rally?

[Bill Graham]

No.

[Guest (Scott Bessant or similar)]

I mean, some people say they want to delay it for that. This is more than king. You know, they're saying they're referring to me as a king. I'm not a king.

[Sean Spicer]

Right, no, but just so that Chuck Schumer could go and say, I'm fighting Trump.

[Guest (Scott Bessant or similar)]

Well, Chuck is, you know, at the end of the line. He's being beaten by everybody that they poll against him. And, you know, what he did is he did the right thing a couple of years ago on something like this, and he got hurt by his party. And it doesn't, I don't think it matters to him. I think he's just so dead that he'll do anything. I think they could just stay out forever. I mean, to be honest with you, now what we're doing is we're cutting Democrat programs that we didn't want because, I mean, they made one mistake. They didn't realize that that gives me the right to cut programs that Republicans never wanted, you know, giveaways, welfare programs, et cetera. And we're doing that, and we're cutting them permanently. We're cutting a $20 billion project that Schumer fought for 15 years to get. And I'm cutting the project. The project is going to be dead. It is pretty much dead right now.

[Mark]

Cryin Chuck. He's a crier. Dan, the no Kings thing to me is of a piece with what I was talking to you about before, which is it's not the economic revitalization rallies. It's not the jobs, you know, and investment care.

[Sean Spicer]

Yeah.

[Mark]

It's just no King. So are Republicans right after this weekend, are Democrats gonna. To me, it's going to cut the other way. They're going to dig in because they're going to see, say this is where our energy is opposing Trump. But do you agree, are Republicans onto something that we may see talks accelerate next week, that the rallies are over?

[Dan]

I think talks may accelerate. It has nothing to do with the no Kings rally. I think talks may accelerate because it is becoming very apparent Democrats are getting near the danger zone politically. If you go back to the start of this three, three weeks ago, Democrats had about a 10 to 15 point advantage on who do you blame for the shutdown? People said Trump and the Republicans, that number, the Democratic number has started getting higher and higher and the gap. And now there were two polls out yesterday that have it about even like.

[Mark]

One or two points indistinguishable.

[Dan]

Yeah. The trend lines are, and we have talked about this for months, when it starts to impact the real lives of real people, you just get agitated, like, gosh darn it, reopen the government, I don't care. And I think that those Senate Democrats from like purplish states coming out of this weekend, as more polls are there, are going to say, guys, like now we got to start negotiating and getting out of this because if this number gets too much higher, Trump's going to smell blood and pound the living daylights out of them. And then he's not going to give you a lifeline.

[Mark]

So, so, so, so the best they can get now is they have to vote for the cr and then, and.

[Dan]

Then there's going to be a health care bill because Republicans want to do it.

[Mark]

Yeah. Yeah, Sean.

[Sean Spicer]

Yeah. So first of all, the rally gave us a great point, right, which is you guys want to open it because you want to have a rally. It's a great political talking point. And so let's just be clear as to. It's not that we, you know, some of us believe it, some of us actually just think it's a good talking point, neither here nor there. Maybe they couldn't cancel their youth Hostels in and around the D.C. area with.

[Mark]

24 hours and the Hacky Sack rentals.

[Sean Spicer]

Right. That being said, look, to Dan's point, politically it's becoming untenable. It also is. It's simple. Always wins in arguments. Right? So open the government, we'll have your discussion. Open the government, we'll have your discussion. Is the simple argument. Republicans win this. I think the problem that my party has right now is we better come up with a plan. When the dog catches the car. When the dog catches the car. Because right now I go, guys, we're some point to Dan's point, they'll cave. Fine, we'll open the government up. What is our position? What are we actually going to do? The subsidies are a massive problem, I believe. I mean, these were Covid temporary subsidies. The Democrats created this. They knew they were temporary. That's why they only they sunset.

[Dan]

Some of them were. Yeah, okay, fair enough.

[Sean Spicer]

Right. Which is the ones that you guys want to deal with. What is it that Democrats are for and what are we going to be fighting on? Right, because we can talk about illegals.

[Dan]

Fair enough.

[Sean Spicer]

That's a great talking point. We can talk about insurance subsidies. Fair enough. But we need to be for something too. Right. And what is that? Are we for extending them at 200% and down and phasing them down over the next two years? But I don't think that there is a plan after the Democrats finally agree to do this. And so we're winning the simple short term argument. Open the government, we'll talk about health care. Where I think Democrats have a problem is they. They have. It is a good discussion to say we want to talk about health care. Health care costs are rising. Got it. Where I think Schumer's missing the boat is they're piling on. We want $5 billion and roll back the Doge cuts. And it's like, again, you're making this too complicated. So both sides have some dangers that they've got to be careful of as far as the argument goes here. And that's where I believe I'm still. Again, just to be clear, the Senate went out today. Why are they not voting today? Why are they not voting Saturday? Why are they not voting Sunday? Republicans got to keep their foot on the pedal on this.

[Dan]

I will also add one good news for Democrats. Health care as an issue rank is getting higher and higher in polls. I think it's at five now. It was like number nine a couple of months ago. So it is entering the public conscious. This is an Important issue, and that's good for the party. Right.

[Sean Spicer]

But remember, most people get their.

[Dan]

Through their employer.

[Sean Spicer]

Through an employer. So this is a very small subset of people that are really dealing with this. And I get. I'm one of them. So I get it. I mean, I know what. Right. But, like, it's hard for a lot of people to say, I don't get it. Where is this fight? Because I, you know, I get. I pay my $20 copay and whatever. So it is a very interesting issue. And again, remember, part of the reason that we're having this discussion is because of Obamacare, you created a system, and it's now collapsing. And you wonder why.

[Mark]

Well, all right, I'm going to run through. I'm going to run through a handful of political stories, and you each will be entitled based on how much time we have to comment on any one of them. Any one of them. Here we go. Mayor's race in New York City. Pass last night. I'm going to do them all. Three things had to happen for the debate to change the race. The moderators had to hone in with tough questions on Mondame to finally hold him accountable. Cuomo had to give the debate performance of a lifetime. Dig deep, and Mondami had to look rattled and make mistakes. None of those three things happened. So that race is over. By the way, Virginia Attorney General debate. The Democrat kind of apologized and the Republican hammered him super hard. And Mr. Platner in Maine, eager to hear what the pod bros say about him.

[Sean Spicer]

Okay, we just read the quote. I. I'll read it.

[Dan]

Which quote? There's like, which one?

[Mark]

Go and read the. Read your favorite, John. I mean, social media. A hundred years ago. How long ago was it? Five years. When was it?

[Sean Spicer]

So, just to be clear, this is.

[Mark]

When was it? How long it was.

[Sean Spicer]

By the way, this is Graham Platner in May.

[Mark]

Long ago. How long ago was it?

[Sean Spicer]

Just. Just. Just to be clear, from the party that wants to confiscate guns.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Sean Spicer]

I give you Graham Platner.

[Mark]

What year before you, before you read it, what year did you write that?

[Sean Spicer]

I don't have my.

[Mark]

We'll look it up. It was like Reddit or.

[Sean Spicer]

Okay, but this is Graham Platner. If people expect to fight fascism without a good semiautomatic rifle, they ought to do some reading of history, right? He goes on. But it's. It's amazing that you want to confiscate the same rifle that you think we need to fight people with and, and.

[Dan]

Urge locker room talk. Right?

[Sean Spicer]

Him and Jay Jones.

[Mark]

All right.

[Sean Spicer]

In the same pod, baby.

[Dan]

J.D. vANCEL super quick.

[Mark]

Yes. Yes or no? Well, I'm going to finish, but super quick on Platner. Is his campaign dead, Dan?

[Dan]

No, no, no.

[Sean Spicer]

Maine, by the way.

[Mark]

Okay.

[Sean Spicer]

Half of that state is applauding the guy for that.

[Mark]

Could help him. Okay, here is a quote from Ed Martin, the DNC chair on POLITICO 111. Did an interview with them saying his job's awesome, saying his job's horrible, and also saying this. I don't care if we overperform or underperform. He's talking about New Jersey. What I care about is making sure we win the governor's race there. At the end of the day, we know that the Republicans are feeling very bullish about their chances in New Jersey for a whole host of reasons. Right. Jack Cittarelli lost to Phil Murphy by three points four years ago in the Harris race. Last year, they significantly shrunk the presidential margin there. And New Jersey, a history of electing Republican governors combined with the fact that they haven't ever elected a Democrat to a third term. Right. At least in the last 50 years. We'll come to that. Here's polling from Emerson. Yeah, no, I might have to make.

[Sean Spicer]

It my winner of the week.

[Mark]

Now polling from Emerson. 112. Hold on, Dan. They keep testing J.D. vance versus Gavin Newsom, and numbers haven't changed much. If 40, tie. 45, 46. And now tie in August. Pretty much of a tie in July. Yeah. Margin of error. Uh, here's a New Jersey governor poll. 113. Uh, there've been a lot of polls there lately, more than usual. Insider advantage has the race, you guessed it, tied.

[Dan]

Yeah.

[Mark]

Even though other polls have shown a little bit of a gap. Here's the Virginia AG race we mentioned. This is 114. It's not outside the margin area because margin varies on both sides. So whatever the margin varies, that's going to be a tie unless the margin of error is less than 2. And it won't be. Here is the governor's race in Virginia. 115. This is Insider advantage. Very close. Sean's been calling this for a while that this is going to be close. And here's Barack Obama. New ad for Mikey Sherrill. Governor race in New Jersey. Hey, New Jersey, this is Barack Obama, and I want to talk to you about my friend Mikey Sherrill. Mikey is a mom who will drive down costs for New Jersey families.

[Dan]

As a federal prosecutor and former Navy.

[Mark]

Helicopter pilot, she worked to keep Our communities safe. Mikey's integrity, grit, and commitment to service are what we need right now in our leaders. Mike Sherrill is the right choice for.

[Dan]

Your next governor, so go vote by November 4th.

[Mark]

Is he grim? Is he grim and unsmiling in that ad for a reason or just he was not in a great mood? Is there a reason you'd want your endorser to be so grim?

[Dan]

Yeah, he definitely did not look very excited to do that.

[Sean Spicer]

That was one of those ones where it's like, before we go golfing, Mr. President.

[Dan]

Exactly, exactly.

[Mark]

More like, here are 40 scripts. You gotta. Bam, Out. All right. You're each entitled to comment on one of those stories. Dan.

[Dan]

I'm gonna go New Jersey gubernatorial because momentum is a huge deal in politics. People want to be with the winner. The press starts to write more and more favorable stories of the candidate with momentum, and the candidate with the momentum against him, or in this instance, her, has to try to reverse it. That the DNC chair in the off year, when they've been bragging about all the overperformance of the party, basically was laying the predicate for her defeat through, what are we, three weeks, two weeks out, is stunning. It's stunning. The party is starting to kind of say goodbye. And I don't know how she turns the momentum around. Maybe she holds on, but you sure do feel like that's a dead body.

[Mark]

Yeah. And again, stunning, because, Dan. Yeah. You were amongst the first report that her team was planning to win and then turn around and run for president.

[Dan]

Or be considered this spring. Watch New Jersey.

[Mark]

Yeah. No, you did.

[Dan]

You did. A little nervous about it.

[Mark]

You did, Sean. I bet you want to comment on.

[Sean Spicer]

Virginia, but I'm going south. And for that reason. Right. Look, to Dan's point, momentum and trends matter. So those polls you showed are snapshot, but look at where they were seven days ago. Ten days ago. Jason Miaros was down four. He's now up four.

[Mark]

Five.

[Sean Spicer]

Right. Winsome Sears was down 12. She's now down two. John Reed, the lieutenant governor. That one poll, the one that we didn't dead even full on. 46. 46. The bottom line is the entire Republican ticket is shifting. Right? That's where you want to be in the final couple weeks of a campaign. You want to be going with the wave, not trying to hold it back. Same thing that dance point New Jersey. Maybe the president's calling him now. The bottom line is that this is a good place for the Republican ticket to be in Virginia. And that's why I still feel Confident all three are going to pull it over the finish line.

[Mark]

Okay. Governor Pritzker revealed yesterday in his tax returns that he made like, over $1 million gambling, playing blackjack. Right. In Vegas. This is a yes, no question. Does this story, Dan, help his chances of being president, United States, so that.

[Dan]

I, I, I, I, I'll give you a different question mark. Does he, does. Does Pritzker try to make his wealth a strength or a weakness? Because historically, candidates are very afraid.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Dan]

Donald Trump was super proud of it.

[Mark]

And you can't buy and said, you can't buy me. No one owns me.

[Dan]

Right. So if I were Pritzker, I'd lean into this.

[Mark]

Yeah. Sean, does this story help him or hurt him?

[Bill Graham]

Push.

[Sean Spicer]

No one cares.

[Dan]

I mean, in the Democratic primary, it's going to hurt him.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Sean Spicer]

Well, I mean, I think, Yeah, I mean, I think you can see you can't get by. And he's betting a million dollars.

[Mark]

Does he lead an opulent life?

[Dan]

No. Well, it depends. Okay. If having been around, I've been a fundraiser for a long time and where I live here, by billionaire standards, he lives a pretty frugal life.

[Mark]

Yeah. That's my understanding.

[Dan]

But if you put it to the average person in South Carolina or Nevad, he's a very nice life. Again, to me, the question is, are you uncomfortable in your own skin? Meaning if you're shy about your wealth like John Kerry was and others.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Dan]

Voters think you're kind of weak and a phony. If you embrace it and flip it and you're like, you're gosh darn right I'm rich and I'm going to try to make you rich, and I know how to make you rich.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Dan]

So, yeah.

[Mark]

All right, we got to do this quick because we got a lot of hands up. Winners, losers of the week, what to look for. Sean, do all three of yours. Okay.

[Sean Spicer]

My winner of the week are the hostages. I think that obviously them getting out, their family, seeing them, I just can't imagine what it's like. I know Christiane on poor didn't think it was a big deal, but I imagine that being held captive for that long has got to be horrible and the pain that those families went through. So they are my winners of the week. My loser of the week are professional diplomats. I think this, what, what Trump continues to show and it's, you know, we'll see in Ukraine, that's out on that. But I do think that this idea of using outside experts, people that you trust, people that can actually go in and have the authority to make a deal. Steve Witkoff. Jared, you see in there Again, big deal on that. And do you want to just end it there? Do you want to do the winner look for the week?

[Mark]

What are you looking for this weekend?

[Sean Spicer]

What am I looking for? What everyone in America is looking for. One o' clock on Sunday. Mike Rabel goes back to Tennessee, and the New England Patriots will take on the Tennessee Titans and extend their record and their lead afc.

[Mark]

Do you know? I know not everybody's looking forward to that because I didn't even know about it.

[Sean Spicer]

Well, now you do.

[Mark]

Yeah. Thank you for that.

[Sean Spicer]

How did you not know that I'm.

[Mark]

Not focused on the AFC this year?

[Dan]

Dan, One of the surprises in the NFL this year. All right. My winner.

[Sean Spicer]

Surprise. Not a surprise. My rake may stuck.

[Mark]

Dan, go.

[Dan]

My winner of the week is Mandani. He did very well last night. And Cuomo did very poorly. Barring a miracle, he's going to be the next mayor of New York. My loser of the week is J.D. vance. I know you guys totally disagree with me, but I think the way he tried to defend those guys. Group text. I'm surprised at the number of people I know who have said like, what on earth was he doing? Who are not political people. I. People don't know him the way they know Trump. He's still forming first impressions. I think it was a real kind of stupid move. I get why he did it and what to watch for for me are the images from the no Kings rally. Is it peaceful? Is it, you know, are there pro Palestinian flags? Are there, you know, illegal aliens? Yeah. Like I'm gonna be very curious what the images are that. That come out of this weekend for the party as we head into the shutdown. More.

[Mark]

Yeah. All right. So my what to look for is exactly the same as yours. I'm so curious about how and how it gets covered. Right. Does it? And then how big they are. Just the whole thing. I respectfully disagree with you about Vance. I think. I think. I think there's negatives to it and positives, but I think it's a net plus for him because it just. It, it. It identifies him as the MAGA king on these issues that are really emotional for them. All right. My winner is BB Mark.

[Dan]

Gotta keep your memory. You don't. Mag is not enough to win. You got to get independence. They're still forming opinions of them.

[Mark]

Of course. Whether whether he can appeal to independence is. Is one of the biggest questions. Obviously. Winners. BB and loser is the pro Hamas, American community. Because they, you know, they, they were flummoxed because there's a peace deal, which is what they said they wanted. And instead of saying, great, they were like, ham. All right, time for your questions, comments, concerns. Let me make one thing clear. Based, I don't know if you saw our special last night with the New York Post after the debate. We're not against drunk people coming on the platform. I just want to be clear. Just.

[Sean Spicer]

Oh, that would have been a good clip.

[Dan]

There were a few people who raised a glass on air last night.

[Mark]

Yeah, we're not against it. Bill Graham. Bill Graham, on the other hand, cold, stone cold sober, as best we can tell. Bill. Yes. This is your first time on the program.

[Bill Graham]

It is. Thank you.

[Mark]

Tell us, tell us all about yourself, Mr. Graham.

[Bill Graham]

Well, thank you for, thank you for including me. I am. Well, I'm actually traveling abroad right now. I'm over in Shanghai, China.

[Mark]

Have the dumplings. Have the dumplings on the bund.

[Bill Graham]

I have. I have. They're. They're. Actually, yes, I have. I've had them. I've had them.

[Dan]

It's 9:40pm Right? Yeah. So maybe he is.

[Bill Graham]

Yeah, yeah, it's. I know. I, I am. I am sober, but it is, it.

[Mark]

Is 9:40pm and where do you, where do you pay taxes, Bill?

[Bill Graham]

The United States. I. I'm a Pennsylvania citizen.

[Mark]

We're in Pennsylvania.

[Bill Graham]

Montgomery County. Gladman, Pennsylvania. Yeah.

[Mark]

Well, welcome in. And you on business over there?

[Bill Graham]

I am, yes.

[Mark]

You stay in a hotel?

[Sean Spicer]

Are you working for the government, Mark?

[Mark]

Because now you stay in it, Bill, you staying in a hotel?

[Bill Graham]

I am. I am.

[Mark]

Do they, do they search? Yeah, go ahead. You're aware.

[Bill Graham]

Oh, the, the Grand Hyatt.

[Mark]

Yeah. It's one of my favorites. Do they search your room whenever you leave?

[Bill Graham]

Yeah, probably. I don't know about it, but I, but, but the answer is like.

[Dan]

Yes.

[Mark]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Bill Graham]

Well.

[Mark]

And what, and what kind of business are you starting?

[Bill Graham]

Toy. Toy. Toy business.

[Mark]

Toys.

[Bill Graham]

Yes. I've been in the toy business for some time and kids, toys. Just, just to be clear.

[Mark]

Understood.

[Guest (Scott Bessant or similar)]

Yeah.

[Mark]

This, this Scott, Scott Bessant know you're there?

[Bill Graham]

He doesn't. You know, it's, it's interesting you say that because I was in, I was in the. You. You're familiar with this hotel, Mark?

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Bill Graham]

So there's a, there's a lounge on, like the, the mid. It starts like the 54th floor.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Bill Graham]

And there, there's a lounge where, you know, you get your, you have your evening snacks and stuff like that. And they have the evening news there and, and, and, and it's, it's the local Chinese news. And it's, it's interesting because it's like you get a little slice of life. And what I recognized among other sort of nationalistic stuff that was going on, on the news was that the profiling of the United States personalities was obviously Trump, but it was not Bessant. It was Hegseth that was profiled because it's very, you know, the nationalism here is obviously very apparent and understandable and all that other stuff like, you know, but I think there's a, from a US Perspective, it is economic and from here it is very militaristic. And the recognition, the points of recognition are much more the counterparts on the militaristic side versus the economic side.

[Mark]

So, Bill, are you expanding production in China or are you initiating your first production? There's.

[Bill Graham]

I am initiating a new company and. Yeah.

[Mark]

So I'm not. Okay, well, I'm not being critical, just curious. You're going against what the perceived trend is, which is to manufacture elsewhere. So explain your thinking, if you would.

[Bill Graham]

Yeah, no, no, excellent question. Right. The epicenter of production in the world stems from China. And as it's becoming diversified via the tariffs, or because of the tariffs, rather, I would say that, you know, people are looking at, you know, to Vietnam, which is honestly a kissing cousin of China. More meaningfully, Indonesia and places like that.

[Mark]

Are.

[Bill Graham]

Viable alternatives, but they're basically clones of Chinese production. China is the best producers of stuff in the world. They are the most learned people in the world in terms of like making stuff. Right. Like, like anything that you, you make, anything you touch. There's an excellent product maker here because we exported that stuff that, those jobs that, that expertise yams ago and they've mastered it. So they're the master producers of material goods in the world. And right now, obviously, because of the tariffs, it's a matter of like, how do you skip that fence? Right. So the challenge, of course, is, well, you're going to get clobbered with tariffs if you produce here.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Bill Graham]

So how do you do that without compromising quality? And you really need to. There's only a couple of alternatives in the world. India is not yet, for example, advanced enough from a, from a, from a mass production standpoint to rival China. Indonesia has a good size population and is essentially extension materialized from China. That, that, that is, that's on, on, on par.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Bill Graham]

There are very few alternatives.

[Mark]

I'm sorry. Sorry. I'm sorry. Everything you're Saying is interesting, but I want to make sure Dan and Sean get in here. But just.

[Bill Graham]

Yes.

[Mark]

Aren't you taking a huge risk that your toys will be on? Are you trying to get a sell back in the US Market? Is that where you plan to sell?

[Bill Graham]

Yes, globally.

[Mark]

Yeah. Yeah. But, but, but aren't you taking a huge risk that if the tariffs stay on that your, your, your product will be unaffordable?

[Bill Graham]

I think still. Because the comparative advantage exists with China that. Well, yes, in short, but sort of, kind of no, because despite the tariff.

[Mark]

It'S still the best bet. Okay, Sean.

[Bill Graham]

Yeah.

[Sean Spicer]

So just out of curiosity, obviously, like we do have toy companies in America. I think Hasbro's in Rhode island actually.

[Dan]

Yeah.

[Sean Spicer]

Why not make a bet on why not. Why not try to do this in America with American labor and be sort of have a point of pride that says my toys are made in America. You might pay a little bit more or whatever, but there's US labor and that.

[Bill Graham]

Yeah, no, great question. They are in, they are in Rhode island or they're moving to Boston now.

[Sean Spicer]

But that's how Rhode island does it. Rhode island state model either work for the state or out of state.

[Bill Graham]

Yeah, they were formerly Pawtucket, now Boston proper and Lego for that matter is also moving there. Everybody makes everything in China. So even though they are a Rhode island company, Mattel is an El Segundo company and every other company in the United states. I'm a U.S. company. Everybody makes stuff over here. But it's an excellent question because I actually think there's an opportunity to transition business into the United States as a result of taking some of the expertise, leaning into some of the efficiencies that are, that are, that are potentially, you know, who knows what's going to happen with AI efficiency and the ability to actually transport literal production to other locations. And I, it's an open ended question. I think in some ways that like I would love to, for there to be additional US production.

[Sean Spicer]

Can I ask this real quick not to go down this rabbit hole, but if a policymaker came to you and said, Bill, I hear why you're doing what you're doing, I'd like you to do more in the US what can I do policy wise to make it attractive for you to give you the labor force that you need and the tax policy you need to manufacture here, what would you answer them in 30 seconds?

[Bill Graham]

I take one second, the answer is yes and let's go.

[Sean Spicer]

What I'm, I'm, I, I.

[Mark]

What makes, what makes it economic? What makes it economically viable for you?

[Bill Graham]

I. I've thought about this extensively, actually, and, and honestly, being in China because, like, these, They're. China is. Is so interesting because it's the inverse of. Of the. The American everything, right? Like, it's like the government does everything and private enterprise does very little. In the United States, obviously, the government does very little, and private enterprises everything. I actually think about it in terms of Pennsylvania, and I actually think about things in terms of Pennsylvania Steel, Pennsylvania AI Advanced. Like, what's going on with the administration and investing in AI in Pittsburgh. And as a east coast Philadelphia or eastern state, Pennsylvania resident, I think about terms and like, hey, how could I. Like, this is. I think it's a linear experience in Pennsylvania, and I think that if one were to look at. Cut it. Essentially minimizing the touch points by which human interaction touches things, right? So it's like that. That obviously doesn't necessarily inspire a lot of job creation. However, there's a lot of. That is essentially what goes on in production, right? Like, you want to touch it the least number of times. You want to be as efficient as possible. You want to. You want to be as streamlined as possible. If I were.

[Mark]

Hold on, hold on. I got to get Dan and we. Then we got to move on. Dan.

[Dan]

I'll just say, I mean, look, this is an unbelievably fascinating conversation, and I applaud you. Thank you for coming on. Thank you for your honesty. I think you speak for tens of thousands of businesses that are thinking through their future. And as I've said for this whole entire time with the tariffs, the challenge is, while some are thinking of coming back and coming back a lot more, is having the same algorithm that you are, and they're looking at Indonesia, they're looking at Vietnam. They're not talking about coming back here. And when you then go to, well, how do we take on China? Everybody agrees we need Vietnam, we need Indonesia, we need India, we need all these surrounding countries to be on Team usa, not Team China. So you can't smack them too hard. This is the challenge for everyone. Who says, we'll rewire the whole world. It's hard.

[Mark]

Bill, we're so grateful to you for coming on. If you've got a quick question, because we never did let you ask a question, you can.

[Bill Graham]

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Mark]

Sorry.

[Bill Graham]

Well, first of all, understandable. We'll move on. But, yeah, it's a complicated thing. I would love to move stuff back to the U.S. i think there are.

[Dan]

Ways to do it.

[Bill Graham]

My question is Two things real quick. One, I think, Mark, first of all, I think you're the best analyst in the business. And when I think about things in terms of what you say versus what people receive and how people push back on things, I think about the Gavin Newsom stuff that you pushed over the summer. And it's not a matter of the fact that you report things very well and you analyze things very well.

[Mark]

Thank you.

[Bill Graham]

Your team obviously reflects that. My request, my question, actually it's more of a plea is for politicians to stop cursing. It is the most cringe worthy and least attractive thing in the world that they, they, they feel like they're, they're dropping like a Dirty Harry and they're actually much more like dance fighting or something like that. And that's, that's my thing. You guys are influential. So please tell politicians to stop cursing. It's terrible.

[Mark]

Bill, thank you. Two of the three of us agree with you. Okay. David. David. David and Dave. Gentlemen, welcome in. Just tell us quickly because we're up against the clock. Oh yeah. Where you are brought in. But yeah, I just want to say go Jays go. And I think the Bolton arrest is important because basically there has been this inside the beltway idea that a bunch.

[David Garcia]

Of people like Sandy Berger or Hillary.

[Mark]

Clinton or, or now John Bolton can get away with stuff.

[Dan]

That anyone who is an officer or.

[Mark]

Non com or just a general official who could get away would be facing life in prison for what he did. Yeah. And that's what I want to say. This, that needs to stop. Yep. David, thank you. It's a good point. It runs counter to what, what Dan said, which is he'd only got indicted because who he was.

[Dan]

Well, I just, I'll just say then, then that, then, then going after Donald Trump for the papers, which I think was silly because you just don't go after ex presidents because they didn't return the papers. Then he should have gone to jail. Well, he clear as hell took him and he would not give him back.

[Mark]

You could argue the presidents are different. You could.

[Sean Spicer]

Some people they are. I mean, that's a fact.

[Mark]

Yeah. Dave, thank you. Thank you, David.

[Sean Spicer]

Dave, I, I'm not gonna. By the way, just to be clear, I will never defend sloppiness when it comes to classified information. I mean, but there's a difference between possession and sloppiness. And so I do think there's two separate issues. No, no. My point is I don't think anybody, regardless who you are, should ever treat lightly classified information.

[Mark]

Right. Or, or cover up attempts to investigate it. Right.

[Dan]

Or refuse to give it back or hide it or get caught up.

[Sean Spicer]

Well, no, that's.

[Mark]

Yeah. Dave, welcome in. Quickly. Quickly. Dave Garcia.

[David Garcia]

Thanks. Thanks, guys. Sir.

[Mark]

Sure. Thank you.

[David Garcia]

9:50 in the morning in New Jersey. I haven't been drinking, just for the record.

[Mark]

Okay. We'll take you at your word. But it is Jersey, so I was.

[Dan]

Just going to say. Yeah, okay. All right.

[David Garcia]

You never know. So I just wanted to Talk quickly about J.D.

[Mark]

Vance.

[David Garcia]

You guys have stated, and if I'm mischaracterizing, please, please let me know that you think he's the front runner for 2028. I'm starting to think he may have a Kamala problem where he won't be able to run against the existing administration. I can envision him running a version of the last campaign versus having a pulse on where the electorate is in 27 and 28. And I think Marjorie Taylor Greene, while not a viable candidate, in my view, is demonstrating how someone can flank him from the populist. Right. And it's effectively a MAGA message that is going against the administration. It's kind of like the Rhino message that Trump has, but America first through an America first lens. And so, you know, and just this is nine months into the administration. These are the things that she's been criticizing the administration around, but cost of living, health care, the tariffs, the Argentinian bailout, unconditional support for Israel and potential war.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[David Garcia]

Two bailouts and now potential war with Venezuela. So it's been nine months. And then specifically with J.D. vance, she could lean into the relationship with the tech industry and Peter Thiel. And so I just want to get your thoughts there. I think this could be a real outflank from the populist.

[Mark]

Right. David, it's genius if all candidates were created equal. Right. If this were a truly open race. But he's going to have the endorsement of Donald Trump. He's going to raise $2 billion. He's the chair of the Finance Committee. He has Support from Don Jr. From Tucker, from so many of the. Of the people who will batter here. He's extremely popular with members of Congress, with governors, with everybody in the administration. So you're right thematically. But this is not going to be a fair fight. And he's going to lock it up and then he'll have. He'll have a year. He'll be the de facto nominee and he'll have. I believe this is what's going to happen. It may not, but I believe it. He'll have a year. To find some positions to start to appeal to independence. Whether he can stylistically and after all of this, appeal to independence, I think is a huge question. But we'll see who the Democrats nominate, because that person may have just as much trouble or more appealing to independence.

[Sean Spicer]

Sean, I will just take it one step further. J.D. vance is the Republican nominee as much as Mandami is the next mayor. That's how certain I am of both of those things. I get your point on Marjorie. I think she's bringing up some interesting points, but I don't think this is the. There's a difference. The president hasn't made foreign policy a focus. Number one, these are issues that came to him. Number two, America first is, and I think Steve Bannon put this in an Axios piece yesterday, there's a difference between proactively getting involved in something and being and trying to figure out how to put America's interests first. So, like in Iran, and look at what he did in Israel. This wasn't inserting ourselves. It was making sure that our national security and our national interests were protected. That's what Donald Trump has been doing. And it's a very different approach and it's nuanced. But that's why I think that, with all due respect, Marjorie's a little off on this. He's not going out looking for places to get involved in. He's defending us. And his eye is clearly on the ball when it comes to domestic issues, whether it's the border, tariffs, things like that, trying to make a better playing field. So I think there is nobody that is better positioned, for all the aforementioned reasons that Mark mentioned, to be the nominee of the Republican Party and the next president of the United States than J.D. vance. I get Marjorie's points, but I don't think that that will rise enough to the top to make any much of a difference.

[Guest (Scott Bessant or similar)]

Difference.

[Dan]

So, Dave, I've been saying something along the lines that you have, and I agree with Mark and Sean, and I agree with you, which is that I think 20, 28, J.D. vance is gonna have a straight jacket named Donald Trump on him. And Trump is not going to allow Vance to separate himself. Anytime I think Vance makes a mistake, he's going to pick up the phone, call Fox and Friends and say, well, you know what, J.D. do you guys, Mark and Sean, let me ask you this. Do you think after the nomination, Trump's going to go to like, you're up for two weeks or go away or go. Do you think he can shut his mouth and let Vance go run a campaign. But there's a difference.

[Sean Spicer]

Kamala Harris on the View was asked, name one area that you dispute. And she said, I can't think of one. If you ask JD that question, he would give you a litany, respectfully. Say, you know, the president looks at this, he comes at. From a business perspective. I. Come on. JD can answer that question.

[Dan]

And if polls show Trump is unpopular on that, and J.D. vance does that, can Trump sit there and stomach getting criticized?

[Mark]

Yes, because he wants to be. Because he wants to be succeeded by a Republican.

[Sean Spicer]

And also, JD Knows how to thread a needle really well.

[Dan]

I think Trump says, I do it better than anyone. I watch.

[Mark]

Let me, let me, let me, let me tell you something. One of the things about going on with Vance, there's never been at least the modern era, a vice presidential operation so in sync with the presidential operation. And part, and part of how things go, go cockeyed with Al Gore, with, with Biden, even, even Cheney, is there's tension between the staffs and that percolates up to the principals. That's not going to happen in this case.

[Dan]

The only thing, though, Marcus, for what you just said, they're totally synced. Because JD Vance knows he cannot allow an ounce of daylight between him and Trump. At some point, he has to. And that's the problem.

[Mark]

Could. It could happen. It could happen, but I don't think it will.

[Dan]

Your theory hasn't been stress test, because right now that tongue's got to stay right on the fan.

[Sean Spicer]

You got to stay there, right? No, no, but this is the point. How you do it, right? Daylight is relative. So I think, as I just said, JD can say, look, I'm a Catholic, Trump's not. I have a background like this. I mean.

[Mark]

Yeah, listen, listen, listen to Sean. Sean has explained this perfectly. The guy is so skillful and he's so well liked. There's not been a vice president this well liked within the party and within the White House in my career.

[Dan]

Everyone's goals are the same right now.

[Mark]

Yeah. Dave, sorry, we're out of time. Dave, sorry.

[Dan]

But thank you.

[Mark]

Really brilliant, really brilliant point. Thank you for coming on. I apologize. Sean, real quick, what do you have? We're past time.

[Sean Spicer]

The aforementioned Stephen K. Bannon joins tonight to take it all.

[Dan]

Oh, by the way, there are rumors he is going to challenge J.D. vance.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Sean Spicer]

Well, I will just say this. If you look at the list of issues, 2028 is on my question list.

[Dan]

Okay.

[Mark]

Random offense, 2 o' clock today, Ethan's guest, wasn't he lombre Big woes of the ringer. Join them at 2 o' clock live Eastern Time and then 6 o'.

[Dan]

Clock.

[Mark]

Mark Short, Republican strategist, former chief of staff to Mike Pence and someone else to be the to be determined to be named will join me at six o'. Clock. We'll be back Monday, 9:00am Eastern Time. Don't forget, my episode of NextUp is now there, my interview with Scott Jennings, America's favorite pundit. And we talk about what it's like to be on the inside at CNN where they've turned him into something special. I call him king of all media. We talk about that. And I take him through a Senate campaign, whether he'll run for the Senate in Kentucky in greater detail, I believe than anyone ever has.

[Sean Spicer]

Well, I thought that door was closed.

[Dan]

No, no, no.

[Mark]

Wait till you see his reaction when I told him the president, the president was going to endorse him.

[Dan]

Does Trump call him my Scott?

[Sean Spicer]

No, that's Bessett.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Dan]

Oh, oh, my Jennings.

[Mark]

Yeah, my Jennings. Anyway, thank you all for watching being part of the two way community. Another great week here and we'll see you Monday. Monday's episode only open to those wearing fairway and green merchandise. So if you haven't already gotten it, I'd I choose the express delivery.

[Sean Spicer]

Get it now.

[Mark]

Yeah. Thanks, everybody. Have a great weekend.