The Morning Meeting: Rep. Doug LaMalfa Has Died, Leaving GOP with a Tiny Majority; What's Next for Trump and Venezuela?

Podcast: The Morning Meeting
Host: Mark Halperin
Guests: Kevin Walling, Eric Erickson
Date: January 6, 2026

Episode Overview

This forward-looking episode, hosted by Mark Halperin, zeroes in on seismic shifts in the U.S. Congress after the reported death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa, and dives deep into the fast-evolving aftermath of the Trump administration’s operation in Venezuela. With guests Kevin Walling and first-time co-host Eric Erickson, the panel debates U.S. foreign policy pivots, domestic political ramifications, party strategy, and the strategic messaging surrounding both Venezuela and emerging global hotspots.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Breaking News: Death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa and its House Implications

[19:12]-[20:58]

• Breaking: Mark confirms reports that California Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa has died, shrinking the GOP House majority to 218-213.
• Implications:
  • Eric Erickson [20:18]: “We’re headed into an election year... House isn’t going to do much of anything this year anyway.”
  • Mark [20:36]: “If he [the Speaker] loses his speakership, then we could have impeachment hearings... it would be a fundraising boon for the Democrats.”
• Further Complications: Every vote is now critical, and additional absences (e.g., Rep. Jim Baird in the hospital) threaten to flip the majority.

2. U.S. Operation in Venezuela: Political and Strategic Effects

[08:58]-[18:38]

• Kevin Walling [09:19]:
  • White House messaging: Operation framed as highly successful; prominent military leaders front and center.
  • "MAGA world is generally united behind this operation," with ~33% approval overall.
• Eric Erickson [10:33]:
  • Right now, Venezuela can do "literally nothing" to respond; U.S. military superiority evident.
  • "We took out an Iranian drone factory on the way out... Russia and China cannot do what we did."
• Mark [11:53]:
  • U.S. can "run the country through mafia-like threats by the U.S. Navy"; time is on America’s side.
• Ethnicity and Voter Impact [18:09]:
  • The operation could shift the Hispanic vote, especially among Venezuelan and Cuban communities in the U.S.

3. What’s Next for Venezuela – Risks, Messaging, and Regional Power

[13:40]-[16:24], [54:51]-[57:20]

• Regime Change, But Stability?:
  • The U.S. left in place power-brokers who can suppress dissent; the absence of chaos seen as a tactical policy choice.
  • Kevin Walling: "Bullying and threatening is somewhat working."
• Foreign Messaging:
  • Both guests question why the Trump administration isn’t emphasizing the “axis of evil” (Iran, China, Russia) connection more forcefully.
• Risks [54:56]:
  • Kevin Walling: Greatest worry is escalation with China and Russia (e.g., emboldening China on Taiwan).
  • Eric Erickson [56:08]: Real risk is if nothing truly changes in Venezuela: “We get the oil, but the regime stays.”

4. U.S. Foreign Policy & The Spheres of Influence Doctrine

[41:31]-[49:23]

• Listener Joshua raises concern: Trump’s focus on Western Hemisphere could mean ceding influence to Russia/China, undermining U.S. global leadership and alliances like NATO.
• Kevin Walling [44:31]: Shares the worry: “If we retreat...to spheres of influence...that’s entirely problematic.”
• Eric Erickson [45:52]: Suggests current Trump thinking is: "We’re a nation in decline...so we have to mitigate it," imitating Britain’s declining empire strategies, even as U.S. still holds enormous power.
• Mark [47:18]: Trump seeks to “shake up the chessboard” instead of incrementalism, with an eye on breaking stalemate with China and Russia; admits the risk but frames it as necessary change from failed status quo.

5. Other Flashpoints: Greenland, Ukraine, Domestic Developments

Greenland [21:35]-[24:21]:

• Stephen & Katie Miller push “Let’s take Greenland” rhetoric, seen as a “dickhead diplomacy” move by Erickson [22:53].
• Both guests agree it’s rhetoric, but may still yield more U.S. basing/mineral rights.

Ukraine Peace Talks [24:21]-[29:07]:

• Mark & Guests: Skepticism that Putin will agree to any deal; a potential walk-back of U.S. involvement is likely if no progress.
• Eric Erickson: U.S. oil reserves as leverage; U.S. may profit via arms sales even if it steps back publicly.

Healthcare Subsidies [32:12]-[35:42]:

• Premium increases are sharp; bipartisan talks ongoing, but abortion remains a sticking point for extending subsidies.

NYC Mayoral Politics [35:42]-[38:03]:

• Concerns that new left-wing mayor Mandami isn’t resonating as a feared national “face” for the GOP, but both guests urge watching how his term unfolds.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Eric Erickson on Venezuela:
  “[In Venezuela]...We did something neither Russia nor China can do...the American military and intelligence is hands down better than anything any other nation has.” [13:02]
• Kevin Walling on Dissent Suppression:
  “They left in power people who can suppress dissent...you could imagine rioting in the streets...the fact that there isn’t seems to me to be a positive.” [14:07]
• Eric Erickson on U.S. Messaging:
  “I get it’s Trump and fly by the seat of his pants, but...Iran and Hezbollah both do have land—there’s an island in Venezuela...now it’s an actual Hezbollah training facility.” [15:10]
• Mark on GOP House Majority:
  “Every vote now makes everything harder.” [21:17]
• Erickson coins “Dickhead Diplomacy”:
  “I’m coining the term today of dickhead diplomacy...you don’t have to be a jerk to these people [the Danes].” [22:53]
• Eric Erickson on Spheres of Influence:
  “They are trying to go back to the 19th century, essentially.” [45:52]
• On the risks of Venezuela:
  “The biggest risk is...nothing actually changing in Venezuela. Maybe we get the oil but the regime stays.” [56:08]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [08:58] — Venezuela Operation: Political impact and polling
• [13:02] — U.S. vs. Russia/China capabilities in Venezuela
• [18:09] — Hispanic vote implications of Venezuela policy
• [19:12] — Breaking News: Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s death and House implications
• [21:35] — Greenland rhetoric/"Dickhead Diplomacy"
• [24:21] — Ukraine peace process update
• [32:12] — Healthcare subsidies & bipartisan negotiations
• [35:42] — NYC’s Mayor Mandami and national party image
• [41:31] — Listener Q: Spheres of influence, U.S. global posture
• [54:51] — What’s the riskiest part of U.S. Venezuela intervention?

Listener Q&A Highlights

[41:31]-[49:59]:

• Joshua asks if focusing on the Western Hemisphere opens the door for China & Russia elsewhere; Walling and Erickson both express concern over a strategic retreat and possible ceding of U.S. leadership.

[51:36]-[53:52]:

• Dan inquires about institutional changes to prevent another January 6th. Both guests are skeptical change is likely; most reforms will be incremental at best.

[54:03]-[57:20]:

• Ellen queries about the risks of U.S. intervention in Venezuela; responses highlight escalation with China/Russia and the risk that substantive change in Venezuela fails to materialize.

Conclusion

This episode delivers a brisk yet thorough debrief of the day’s major political developments—unfolding congressional math after Rep. LaMalfa’s death, the rapidly shifting landscape in Venezuela post-U.S. intervention, and the interconnected challenges of global and domestic policy in a Trump-led America. As ever, the hosts aim for forward-looking, candid conversation, pulling back the curtain on political operators’ real-time anxieties and analyses.

For those seeking “the next day in news” and the raw calculus behind headline events, this is essential, inside-the-room listening.