"She's Probably Going To Lose": Haley Stevens Faces Abdul El-Sayed in Key Test of Far Left vs Left

Summary

Podcast Summary: "She's Probably Going To Lose": Haley Stevens Faces Abdul El-Sayed in Key Test of Far Left vs Left

Podcast: The Morning Meeting
Host: Mark Halperin (2WAY), with Kevin Walling & Hogan Gidley
Date: August 3, 2026

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Overview:

This episode of The Morning Meeting dives deep into the upcoming Michigan Senate Democratic primary: centrist incumbent Haley Stevens vs. insurgent progressive Dr. Abdul El-Sayed. The discussion centers on whether this contest is a harbinger for the broader national struggle between establishment Democrats and far-left challengers. The panel analyzes polling, the establishment’s likely reaction to a Stevens defeat, strategizes over general election prospects, and touches on related House races. The conversation moves into the implications for down-ballot races, broader party shifts, and touches on Iran policy and media criticism in the latter half.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Michigan Senate Democratic Primary: Stevens vs. El-Sayed

[05:38]

• Campaign Dynamics: Both candidates are in the final stretch. Stevens is seen as trailing and “playing out the string,” per Mark:

  “If you’re a student of candidates who are getting bad internal polling data, you’d say that Haley Stevens appears to somewhat be playing out the string.” (Mark, 06:09)

• Polling & Momentum:
  • El-Sayed is “well ahead” in public polls.
  • Stevens has already signaled she’ll endorse El-Sayed if he wins, an indicator of low internal optimism.
• Rumors and Internals:
  • A viral tweet claimed Stevens’ pollster told her she couldn’t win; the pollster refuted this.
  • Mark suggests: “We shouldn't assume she's going to lose, but she's probably going to lose based on everything we know.” (07:37)

2. Establishment & Progressive Tensions

[07:52]

• Down-Ballot Races: There are two related contested House primaries—a progressive could win both.
  • Walling (Dem): If insurgents win all three, the establishment “will warmly embrace all of them… especially if it's a double-digit margin with El-Sayed and you see that enthusiasm.” (07:52)
• Will National Leaders Support El-Sayed?
  • Hasan Piker Factor: El-Sayed previously campaigned with leftist streamer Hasan Piker; Walling notes he’s “distancing himself from that” and “he has said multiple times he’s not a DSA candidate or a socialist.” (08:44)
  • If El-Sayed “distances himself,” the DSCC, Obamas, Clintons, etc., will support him like a “normal” nominee.

3. General Election Prospects—MI Senate

[09:22]

• GOP View: Some Republicans (via James Blair’s Twitter) believe nominating El-Sayed is a “death wish” for Dems.
• Hogan Gidley (R): Dissents—calls it 50/50 odds because of anti-establishment sentiment:

  “There is a palpable hatred for the current state of play across the country. …Don’t just write off someone like El-Sayed. I warn my Republican colleagues…‘oh, please bring him on, we’re going to crush this guy.’” (10:11)

  • Reminds panel that “Democrats said Trump couldn’t win, and look what happened.”
• Mark: Rogers is a “generic Republican,” which paradoxically could help or hurt against both types of Democrats.

4. Progressive Policy Issues—Disqualifying or Not?

[17:14]

• Abolish ICE Position: Once “fully toxic,” now not necessarily disqualifying – may not sway the general electorate as negatively as in years past.

  “I don’t think he has any other positions that I know of that are like silver bullet disqualifying in general where Mike Rogers can just say every day, this guy’s for this…” (17:43, Mark)

• Other Progressive Positions (e.g. Medicare for All, criminal justice reform): Panel agrees they’re conventional for the current left, not “silver bullet” liabilities.

5. Implications for Party Future & 2028

[16:36]

• If El-Sayed wins, Mark says: “Good luck figuring out how to run in the Michigan presidential primary in 28, because unless you’re a socialist candidate or socialist adjacent, you’re gonna have to figure out what to do about the electorate there.” (16:36)

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Progressive Surge:

  “The battle over the heart and soul of the Democratic Party has seen through Michigan.” (15:08, Mark)

• Compare to 2016 Trump Upset:

  “Democrats said Donald Trump is not going to be president… and the son of a bitch is in the White House twice.” (11:10, Hogan Gidley)

• On Progressive Messaging:

  “The point was, I think a lot of these people are selling you sand that are selling you water that’s actually sand. ...I’m afraid some voters are going to drink the sand because they don’t know the difference.” (13:56, Hogan Gidley)

• On Media Focus:

  “Here are some of the stories that were above the story of everything I just said... Why the US doesn’t have small elevators like Europe and China... All those stories were considered more important to highlight … than the President of the United States taco-ing on World War II.” (28:54, Mark)

• On National Dems' Reluctance with Socialists:

  “Will [Wes] Moore campaign with her? ... She has positions that are outside the mainstream that'll be damaging in general election, but she’s running against a very weak candidate.” (20:00, Mark)

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Other Important Segments & Timestamps

[24:06] Iran Policy: War, Blockade, and Negotiations

• The panel sharply criticizes the administration’s policy oscillations, especially the latest move to consider opening the Strait of Hormuz:

  “The worst thing you could do, literally the worst thing you could do if you want to strangle them economically, is to let them sell oil. It doesn’t make any sense.” (26:36, Mark)

[29:54] Media Critique

• Mainstream outlets (Washington Post, NYT, TV networks) downplayed major news on the Iran situation, favoring soft features—a recurring complaint.
• Panel derides a 'rigged' roundtable: Anti-Trump Republicans & Democrats, with no MAGA voice.

  “Even now they do they book a roundtable like that... If I were the host...I’d say those are two anti-Trump Republicans. Of course if we’re going to, if we’re going to go all in, let’s just book four Democrats.” (34:13, Mark)

[38:51] CNN’s Dana Bash vs. RFK Jr.

• Cited as an example of the changing tenor in political-media interviews.
• Hogan: “I think Kennedy won because he further exposed the lack of critical thinking by the mainstream media.” (39:15)

[41:24] Dem Autopsy and Consultant Class

• Kevin Walling: “We all could have written this autopsy: The President shouldn’t run again. He aged before our eyes. There was an anti-incumbent fervor...” (42:25)

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Notable Timestamps by Topic

• [05:38] Introduction to Michigan Senate and key House primaries
• [06:38 – 08:58] Stevens & El-Sayed mutual endorsements and looming progressive wins
• [09:22 – 12:17] GOP perspective and ‘Trump analogies’
• [13:56] Iconic “sand/water mirage” analogy
• [16:36] Michigan’s importance for the party’s future
• [17:14] “Disqualifying” positions—ICE, police, borders
• [20:00] Wisconsin governor race and Dem socialists
• [21:22] Quick-hit: California Prop 40 and Gavin Newsom split
• [24:06 – 27:02] Iran blockade and oil strategy debate
• [29:54] Media coverage failures
• [32:00] Network roundtable bias on ABC’s “This Week”
• [38:51] RFK Jr. bests Dana Bash in TV interview
• [41:24] Democratic “Autopsy” and consultant culture

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Tone & Language Overview

• Host Mark: Wry, pointed, mixes humor and sharp critique—especially on Beltway politics and traditional media habits.
• Walling (Dem): Pragmatic, “rah-rah” for the party but cautious about leftward shifts.
• Gidley (R): Candid, nervous about far-left momentum, repeatedly invokes lessons from Trump-era upsets.

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Conclusion

For listeners wanting a pithy, unapologetic assessment of the Michigan primary as a test of Democratic soul, along with an insider-y, sometimes exasperated critique of media and DC groupthink, this episode is must-hear. The hosts see Michigan’s result—likely an El-Sayed win—as a bellwether for the party’s future, potentially making progressive policy and style the price of admission for any national Dem in 2028. The discussion broadens to highlight how establishment, progressive, and even Republican actors are recalibrating for a volatile, post-Trump political landscape.

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For full coverage of the Michigan vote and its aftermath, the Morning Meeting promises follow-up analysis in subsequent episodes.

Transcript

[Professor Kenney]

Foreign.

[Mark]

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to a big day in the news. It's a big day in the news. And with us, we have Kevin Walling. Happy belated happy birthday. We should have wished Kevin happy birthday on Friday, but didn't want to destroy that. He had his birthday party at Madison Square Garden. A lot of security involved. Didn't want. Happy birthday. Happy birthday to the vice president. Also Bladely and not. Happy birthday to the man who. Aria Grande looks at his waist and she says, I want that. Hogan Gidley. Hogan, welcome in. Thank you for being here. Worked on that.

[Kevin Walling]

You just come up? Yeah, I was gonna say worked on that all weekend. That can't be. So she.

[Mark]

She looks at Hogan's waist with both admiration and anger. And some envy. Hogan, welcome and thank you for being here. You're. You're 33 currently, right? Am I right?

[Hogan Gidley]

I'm 33, yeah.

[Mark]

33 waist.

[Hogan Gidley]

Oh, 33 waste. That's. That's about it. Depends. 32.

[Mark]

33, yeah, 32. 33. He had cheesecake over the weekend, so it's. It's ballooned to 33.

[Hogan Gidley]

It's like. It's like Seinfeld. I take the. I mark it a 32 on the back of my jeans.

[Mark]

Exactly.

[Hogan Gidley]

You can see it be like, oh, 32.

[Mark]

It is like that. Anyway, we'll run through the day book. We'll have a spirited conversation about Michigan, Iran and everything in between. And then we'd welcome your participation. If you're here on the platform, please raise your hand. Hogan rarely watches the show when he's not on it. But Hogan, I need to tell you, we had a ton of new people last week. A ton of new community members just raised their hand. What's that Latin phrase for spontaneously espionte? I don't speak Latin. Anyway, people raised their hand last week. Yeah, I do too. Please raise your hand A. If you want to get in on the conversation. We'd love to have you. Thank you for your consideration. And here's the daybook. Ladies and gentlemen, the POTUS, aka President United States. He's in Washington, D.C. and he's got some time with the media today. He's in executive time now. Participates in a policy meeting, closed press at noon, signs an executive order at 1:30, open to the press pool. Anybody know what the executive order is about? I don't. Haven't seen any information on that. All right, we'll see. But presumably he'll take questions. Three o'.

[Hogan Gidley]

Clock.

[Mark]

Policy meeting, close. Press 4:30. Policy meeting, closed. Press, Oval Office, 5:30. You guessed it. Ladies and gentlemen, Joker. Joker and the triple, not Wink Martindale. As I said last week, some other guy whose name I don't currently recall.

[Dave]

Larry Wood.

[Mark]

Anyway, three policy meetings or four policy meetings technically all closed Press don't know what the VP is doing after he appeared at the cabinet meeting. Chuck Schumer and Congressman Joe Morell introduces something called the no Payoffs for Pardons Act. Bicameral legislation aimed to bring transparency and accountability to the clemency process today. And the Senate's voting tonight on a on a measure, a continuing resolution that would keep there from being government shutdown before the midterms. No idea whether the House would pass that. Space X releases its first earnings report after the IPO in June. And then our week ahead, ladies and gentlemen, on Monday, we try to tell you what's coming up this week. Tomorrow is a doozy in Michigan. A lot of focus on the Senate race. But there's two Democratic House primaries that are the same idea. You've got an insurgent, socialist aligned candidate running in one case against the Democratic incumbent in another case. It's an open seat in one of the most focused on House districts in the country held by a Republican. A district the President and many members of his government have already gone to. So that we'll watch for that tomorrow. Also primaries tomorrow in Kansas, in Virginia, in Washington state. Judiciary Committee now cleared after last night's deal. Todd Blanche making his own deals to get his own confirmation on two issues that were important to two Republican senators. Judiciary Committee will vote to advance his nomination tomorrow. Widely expected to go to the floor with a favorable nomination. The President's going to the Silver State on Wednesday, guys. How do you pronounce the name of that state where Las Vegas is? Say it together. One, two, three.

[Kevin Walling]

Nevada.

[Mark]

Nevada.

[Dave]

Nevada.

[Mark]

Thank you. Bar association annual. American Bar association holds its annual meeting Thursday in San Francisco. Hogan would say that's an apt choice for a location to have it there. July jobs report comes out on Friday. Also on Friday, Kamala Harris scheduled to do another high profile speaking event. This time at something called Inspire the City NOLA Love Rally, which is an annual back to school event in New Orleans. I guess there there'll be a few black women at that event. That'd be my guess. And I haven't told you this in a while, but here are the guests for the tonight's show with Jimmy Fallon, Elliot Page, Callum Turner and Coleman Domingo. Hey, Kevin, how many of those have you heard of?

[Kevin Walling]

All of them. All of them.

[Mark]

Who's Coleman Domingo? I Embarrass myself. Who's Colman Domingo?

[Kevin Walling]

He's a black actor that was just in the Four Seasons and a bunch of stuff. He just did Amy Poehler's podcast. He's great.

[Mark]

Okay. Did Amy Fuller's podcast. Yeah. You could stop right there. Anybody who does that podcast, that's a bigger, that's a bigger stop than Rogan now.

[Kevin Walling]

It's true. It's true.

[Hogan Gidley]

All right.

[Mark]

The Dow, of course, of pre, pre market equities rallying because all the president has to do is say peace is at hand and the people in the financial world are suckers every minute and they rally. And of course, the same with the oil traders. Oil down nearly 7%. Gas is still at 410 though 85% of S&P 500 companies have beaten second quarter earnings estimates. So the market at least somewhat buoyed not just by the President's promise of peace, but on a regular basis, earnings coming in higher than expected. All right, the mission.

[Kevin Walling]

Morning.

[Mark]

Morning again, it seems like it's very morningish. The Michigan Senate race is, is in its final stretches. 107, please. Here's the Associated Press. Yesterday they both, both Democratic candidates. Mr. Dr. Assad and Congresswoman Stevens did black churches. Today Haley Stevens goes to West Michigan. Dr. El Saad stays in Detroit metro area. Mike Rogers is doing what Mike Rogers does. And there's a bunch of public polls we've talked about here that show El said well ahead. And if you're a student of candidates who are getting bad internal polling data, you'd say that Haley Stevens appears to somewhat be playing out the string. Kevin, is that your impression too or am I, you think I'm misreading it?

[Kevin Walling]

No, I think that's right. And I think indications too that I think she gave an interview the other day where she said of course that she would endorse El Said if he's the nominee, which is again hedging a little bit. So I think that's the case.

[Mark]

And he's now said that he had endorsed her. So they both confirmed that they had endorsed the other one. Some random tweeter. I think it's a random tweeter because it's not a tweet account. I rec. I knew tweeted yesterday that her pollster had told her she can't win. And this tweet got in my feed 100 times, retweeted by lots of people. And so at some point between now and then, her pollster went on Twitter and posted this ladder for those in the Back. I'm her pollster. Speaking of Congresswoman Stevens, this is nonsense and didn't happen, allegedly. I'm also playing linebacker for my Seahawks this year. Of course, he didn't say she's going to win. He just said it's nonsense that he told her she, she has no path to victory. Of course she's got a path to victory. You never know. The voters haven't voted. There are also these two House races tomorrow. We shouldn't assume she's, she's going to lose, but she's probably going to lose based on everything we know. So, Kevin, they're also the two House races. If the, if the insurgents win all three races, all three primaries, which at this point it seems to me they're favored to do, how will the Democratic establishment react? Will they be warmly embraced? Will they, will it be a checkerboard? How will the Democratic establishment react to that outcome?

[Kevin Walling]

Well, I think that they'll warmly embrace all of them. Well, one of them's taking out tree thranding car, who's been a weirdo member of the House for a while with an actual CBC black member because it is a very black district in around Detroit. The other seat, which is the open contention one is Haley Stevens district. Yeah. And you have an insurgent progressive. They're not super outside the mainstream, but just much more progressive. And I think, you know, folks, especially if it's a double digit, you know, margin with Al Said and you see that enthusiasm.

[Mark]

Right.

[Kevin Walling]

I think they'll rally behind him as well.

[Mark]

One more for you. Let's say he continues to campaign with and get their support of Hassan Piker. Will he be treated like a normal candidate at the general election? Will he? Will he? Will Barack Obama come in for him? Will the Clintons come in? Will, will the DSCC fully support him if that, if he continues to campaign with that guy, Will he.

[Kevin Walling]

I think you're already seeing him distance himself from that and distance himself. He has said multiple times that he's not a DSA candidate or a socialist.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Kevin Walling]

So I doubt that. I mean, that would be campaign malpractice. If he can't, you know, campaigns with this guy.

[Mark]

Okay, but, but so if he, if he distanced himself from Hasan Piker, it's all, it's all, it's all. He's our kid. Gavin Newsom will campaign for him. Shapiro will campaign for him. Kamala Harris, all of them. Yes. 100 Hogan. Yeah, that's what he's saying. That's what he's saying. Do you disagree, Hogan?

[Hogan Gidley]

No, I'm just trying to tackle taking it all in.

[Mark]

Yeah, for Al. Say it. We don't know about the House candidates. They don't typically campaign for every House candidate. Hogan, there are people in your party. If you read James Blair's Twitter account, it's sort of the mood music is if they're stupid enough to nominate this guy, the seats are so my Rogers is not going to lose to a socialist ally aligned a socialist adjacent candidate. What odds would you give Al said of winning a general election against Mike Rogers and why I've not seen the polling.

[Hogan Gidley]

So the percentages of the make it up, Hogan.

[Mark]

It means Is it 5050? Is it 60? 40.

[Hogan Gidley]

50. 50 came to my mind only because where we are in politics right now, so.

[Mark]

So in other words, you're dissenting from some conventional wisdom in that says nominating El Sayed is a death wish for the party and he can't win. You're saying he could be Mike Rogers? Yeah, go ahead.

[Hogan Gidley]

For a couple of reasons, this movement scares me. First of all, I'm paid to be nervous, so that's why I'm usually nervous. But that is also my nature. Listen, there is a palpable hatred for the current state of play across the country. Everybody's establishment, the government screwing everybody, et cetera, et cetera. And I remember so well you could play the clips for the entire hour of Democrats saying Donald Trump is not going to be president. That is the stupidest thing ever. He's a lunatic, he has no shot at this. And the some bitch is in the White House twice. Okay, true, and I'll say that affectionately, I love Donald Trump. But what I'm trying to point out in a broader sense is I warn my Republican colleagues, my contemporaries, if you will, to be like, oh, please bring him on. We're going to crush this guy.

[Mark]

I don't know.

[Hogan Gidley]

Because so many people don't like where we're headed and there's an opportunity here for someone with the blow it up mentality to take control of and I think it was Ron Fournier, a person we all know who I think is either front covered our concern or whatever he said. He a politician as good as El said since Bill Clinton.

[Mark]

Well, it's not exactly what he said, but he compared him favorably to Bill Clinton.

[Hogan Gidley]

Compared him favorably.

[Kevin Walling]

I will tell you, he's a talented guy.

[Hogan Gidley]

I think he's extremely radical. I think he's horrible for the state of Michigan. I think he's horrible for the country, but that doesn't mean he's going to lose because of that. You have to present a very good alternative that has solutions, has a record Mike Rogers can point to. Look at all the good I've done. I'm going to bring home more for the people of Michigan versus someone like Al say so I don't know.

[Mark]

Yeah, brilliantly. Brilliantly, said Hogan. Kevin, I feel like Mike Rogers, we both know him, he's a nice guy, but I feel like people say, oh, he's the perfect candidate for Michigan because he's like John Engler type, whatever. I think he's, he's a great candidate for El Said to run against. He's older, he's, he doesn't, he doesn't move or speak as quick as he used to. He's a law. He's a creature of Washington. I think he, I think he's a multimillionaire. Like it seems like, it seems like law enforcement background. Yeah, exactly. And he's tied to Trump.

[Kevin Walling]

We talk all the time about a generic Democrat, generic Republican. Mike Rogers, a fairly generic Republican. Right. You know, has a legislative record. You know, has a record, but in

[Mark]

a way that sets up well for the Democrats.

[Kevin Walling]

Correct.

[Mark]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Just make sure. Okay, we'll watch that. Yeah, go ahead. Ogan.

[Hogan Gidley]

One thing, I was thinking about this last night, Mark, and you could probably. This is the DSA movement more, in my opinion. You remember the, the movie the American President.

[Mark]

Very well. Michael Douglas, Aaron Sorghum.

[Kevin Walling]

Yeah.

[Hogan Gidley]

Where Ted Cruz used that speech about Sidney Ellen Wade to just drop in his own wife's name argument with Donald Trump, which is dumb.

[Dave]

Anyway. Whatever.

[Hogan Gidley]

I was remembering the scene where Michael J. Fox's character, who's the comms guy, of course, is telling the president, you need to engage in these battles because people are struggling and they want answers and they need a leader. And he says, and if they'll walk, they're so thirsty for it, they'll walk through the desert toward a mirage. And when they see there's no water, they'll drink the sand. The president Michael Douglas character looks at him and says, they don't drink the sand because they're thirsty. They drink the sand because they don't know the difference. And it was like, you know, the thunder rolls immediately following in the oval.

[Kevin Walling]

Yeah, it's a great scene.

[Hogan Gidley]

The point was, I think a lot of these people are selling you sand that are selling you water that's actually sand. And these people think, because they want something different, this sounds great, free this, free that. No cops, no crime, all of these Things they're trying to sell you. It's a mirage. And I'm afraid some voters are going to drink the sand because they don't know the difference. They can't define communism because they don't know what it is. They haven't been taught that. And while voters I don't think are stupid, they are ignorant. One of my good friends, last little anecdote here, I went and saw him a couple weeks ago and he goes, hey, is there something going on with the war? Like what's happening? One of the smartest guys I know. He's in tune with everything. No idea what is happening nationally, internationally, because that's not his world. So many people don't know. And when you have someone like Al said, you have the DSA people telling them, oh, no, they may say, it's sand, it's really water, come drink my water. I think they're selling something that is not good for the people. But in that vacuum, it may actually work. And it scares me.

[Mark]

President's going to California tomorrow, according to Caroline Levitt. We said he was going to the Silver State on Wednesday. Caroline Levitt tweets he's going to California Silver State on Wednesday to tout economic success. Remember, ladies and gentlemen, we've already seen this. People say Michigan is the big. The big test of the establishment versus the progressives or the socialists. We saw this in Maine. Graham platner won with 80, 70% of the vote. So it's happened already. And in that case, people can argue about whether Janet Mills would have had a better chance to win the general election than Platinum now Jackson. But the party spoke and the party will speak again tomorrow. We'll preview this again tomorrow morning. Full coverage on Wednesday. But it's a big deal. It has huge implications. And you talk about. I'm consumed with how the Democratic establishment would react to a El Sayed nomination. How will the left reactive Stephen somehow wins and how was said react if he's the nominee? All questions that are super important for 26, ladies and gentlemen, and for 28 over the the battle over this Michigan Senate seat, which almost certainly Democrats must win to take the majority. The battle over the heart and soul of the Democratic Party has seen through Michigan. And then if I'll see aid wins and then he wins the general election. Good luck figuring out how to run in the Michigan presidential primary in 28, because if you're. Unless you're a socialist candidate or socialist adjacent candidate, you're gonna have to figure out what to do about the electorate there Last thing I'll say about.

[Kevin Walling]

And it's fairly early on in the new. In the new state map. Yes, it is.

[Mark]

In terms of primary states, it's the first big state. It's pre Super Tuesday. Last thing I'll say, ladies and gentlemen, is watch the body language today. LCA seems to think he's going to win. And she seems to think, to me, she's going to lose. Okay, Wisconsin, it's a week from tomorrow. And unlike in Michigan, where you can't be 100% sure based on the public polling, what's going to happen. The Michigan public, Wisconsin Senate gubernatorial public polling makes it quite clear that they're a genuine socialist, is going to win, by the way. Sorry, one more thing I want to say about Michigan.

[Kevin Walling]

The car carrying card carrying card carrying

[Mark]

due charter, Charter member Elsa Elsie Hogan El Sayed is for abolishing ice. That's a position that was fully toxic a year ago, but now in the broader electorate. But now because of what's happened. I don't know that it's disqualifying. I'll say. I don't know that it's disqualifying. What. What other position? What other position? It's not disqualifying in a general election, right? I mean, what other position?

[Hogan Gidley]

It ought to be.

[Mark]

Well, but it's not. What other positions does that guy have that you guys consider like silver bullet disqualify? Because I contend none. I contend. I'll say Ad. I don't think he has any other positions that I know of that are like silver bullet disqualifying in general, where Mike Rogers can just say every day, this guy's for this. He's for Medicare for all. He's for getting money out of politics. He's for cutting off aid to Israel. I just don't. I just say people are exaggerating the extent to which, unless you guys can name one. I looked on his website. He's very progressive.

[Hogan Gidley]

He's against the police, too. Right.

[Mark]

But he's not for abolishing the police. He wants. He wants criminal justice. He wants criminal justice reform. So does Hakeem Jeffries.

[Hogan Gidley]

He's. He's for, he's for no borders, too.

[Mark]

Yeah, I don't know that he's for no borders, to tell you the truth.

[Hogan Gidley]

But remember, you're talking about, you're talking about a state in Michigan, right, that has an entire town that has been taken over in the elected positions of power by Muslims who have now banned the LGBTQ flying that flag anywhere. So they are Plenty of people in that state. And I remember was it right after Covid, I was in. I was going through Detroit on my way to something. The airport was full of people displaced from all over the Middle east and they couldn't speak English. They're flying into those communities. My point is it's not disqualifying for him at all in a general election because the electorate is made up of people who believe you shouldn't have prisons.

[Mark]

Yeah. Stand by, ladies. Stand by. Ladies and gentlemen. This is not going to be a layup for Mike Rogers if that's the. And here's how far I'll go. I think he might be a stronger general election candidate than Haley Stevens. That's how far I'll go, Mike. Michigan, Wisconsin governor's race.

[Hogan Gidley]

Oh, he's a good candidate, though.

[Mark]

Wisconsin governor's race. The demo, the likely. And by the way, sorry, one more mission. Democrats have a clear nominee and a strong nominee for governor, an establishment candidate, the current attorney General. The Republicans have a contested primary tomorrow and the president's candidate, John James may lose to a MAGA businessman. And I don't think either of them is a particularly strong candidate. Which is. Which is to say that. That the gubernatorial race, the Democrats are going to be favored and that has a connection to the Senate race. Finally, Wisconsin governor, the candidate there is an avowed socialist and she ain't. She ain't shying away from Hassan Piker. She's not. Here she is yesterday. 1:30, please. This is Francesca. How do you pronounce her last name? I just don't. Here's Francesca Hong with a very tall Hassan Piker. And Hogan, who's that handsome lady on the far left of the photo? Congresswoman Eli Omar campaigning yesterday. We don't need to talk about this one, folks, except to say keep your eye on this one because the Democrats are going to face all the same issues. Who wants to campaign with her? Will Wes Moore campaign with her? He's the chair of the Democratic Governors Association. Is he going to go into Wisconsin and stand side by side with the socialists? She has positions that are outside the mainstream that'll be damaging in general election, but she's running against a very weak candidate, a comparatively weak candidate in Tom Tiffany. We shall see. California Prop 40. The Democratic Party of California endorsed it yesterday. This is the. The billionaires tax. The Gavin Newsom opposes. Guys, one, just one question on this. Will it pass? Will Prop 40 pass? Putting on this tax that Gavin Newsom's against it. His own state parties for a one time 5% tax on billionaires. Kevin, yes or no? Will it pass?

[Kevin Walling]

Yes. Given the climate.

[Mark]

Hogan yes. The correct answer is yes. Iran, ladies and gentlemen, this is a friggin mess. The president comes out over the weekend and says, okay, we're back to negotiations. All right. I don't understand the this. The Wall Street Journal editorial board hates this. It thinks making a deal with Iran is absurd. Our friend Eric Erickson115 Eric thinks making a deal with Iran is absurd. He says they just want to just build a nuclear bomb and destroy the west and Israel. And the President needs to stop this. He says. The president says he is going to suspend any further strikes because Iran, he assures us, might want a deal. Might want a deal. We are well past silly here and into foolish. Iran does not want a deal. Iran wants a bomb. And just about everyone who looks at the the regime with clear eyes knows it. Everyone, it seems, except the one man whose fingers is on all of this. He is beclowning himself. He looks like a coward and he's managing at the exact moment our allies grow more and more convinced we've started a war we have no stomach to finish. Ladies and gentlemen, I've not seen the point I'm about to make anywhere and it makes me mental. What seems to be in play now is to open the straight. It's like let's do, let's, let's get their good faith and open the straight and then let's move on to their good faith on the nuclear. Ladies and gentlemen, opening the strait. Assuming Iran will agree to open the strait without collecting a toll. Assuming they will, opening the strait undermines the entire strategy that the administration is pursuing and what many people in the administration and outside analysts say is the only thing that can work economic pressure. Because when we open the strait, it's open for Iran. All right, here's Trey Youngst on Fox News this morning talking about the Economic Strategy 111. As this is taking place. And while the President paused these strikes against Iran, there's an ongoing US Naval blockade of Iranian ports and it is crippling the Iranian economy. They are losing hundreds of millions of dollars each and every day. And it's part of the reason that the Iranians are asking for a deal. They're asking for a solution here because while the President keeps the US military on alert and prepared, as he describes it, locked and loaded, there is this economic component that is harming the Iranian regime and it is forcing them back to the negotiating table. Kevin, what am I missing? How could we possibly be trying to get a deal to reopen the Strait when all that will happen is Iran will do during what they did several weeks ago when the strait was, quote, unquote, open. They'll sell oil to the Chinese, yes, at a discount, yes, with some limits, but they'll make a bunch of money. Why? Why are we even trying to reopen the Strait? What am I missing?

[Kevin Walling]

Yeah. To quote the great Yogi Berrett's deja vu all over again with this situation. And, you know, there were reports that the president wanted to on Friday do this obliteration campaign was talked out of it by the Saudis and other Gulf allies. There's interesting pieces that in terms of who's actually really in his ear, used to be Israel, predominantly. Now it's more Saudi Arabia dictating a lot of the policies over there out of fear for their own economy and their own water power plants, what have you. But again, we've also, you know, going back to Scott Bessant, you know, a month into this, talking about how crippled the Iranian economy is, the fact that we're still having this conversation is extraordinary. And it doesn't seem like it is actually that crippled and that it has insulated itself, knowing that this was likely to be the plan of attack by the US And Israel to sustain itself through these, this process.

[Mark]

Hogan, what am I missing? Why are we trying to let Iran sell oil? And people say, well, we're just going back to pre war. We're not, because we're taking this. If I assume Iran's not going to do it unless we take the sanctions off.

[Hogan Gidley]

Okay, a couple of things. Having been in that building four years, these negotiations are extremely nuanced, they're extremely difficult, and a lot of information flowing into and out of that building, only snippets of which make it to the mainstream media. So we're not getting the full picture and nor should we. This is a. These are sensitive talks. I still think, based on what I've talked to and my sources and generals in the military, et cetera, that there are factions over there telling our negotiators, Wyckoff, Kushner, Secretary of State Rubio and back channel, obviously back channeling to the president, that they want a deal. I still believe. Right. The ones that are in control are the ones who want to bomb and

[Kevin Walling]

death and destruction the Revolutionary Guard, for the most part. You'd say, Hogan. Right, right.

[Hogan Gidley]

So what'd you say, Kevin?

[Mark]

Before I say the Revolutionary Guard, answer my question. Why are we trying to strike a Deal to let them sell oil. Why are we possibly doing that if the whole strategy is economic?

[Hogan Gidley]

This, this goes back to the carrot and stick it's been from the beginning. He wants to give them a carrot now because he's been signaled. They want a deal because the press.

[Mark]

Give them, Give them some actual. Give them, give them some actual carrots. Don't let them make money on our watch. It doesn't make any sense. It makes no sense. And the fact that I've not read this anywhere or heard this anywhere also makes no sense. For those of you who mock me and say you don't know anything about geopolitical, military, blah, blah, blah. I know this. I know that. I know that. My sources say the current strategy is to strangle them economically. And literally the worst thing you could do, literally the worst thing you could do if you want to strangle them economically is to let them sell oil. It doesn't make any sense.

[Hogan Gidley]

But remember, that was what we tried before. It was like, we'll let you sell oil, be on the global stage, be a good partner.

[Mark]

And it didn't work. All they did, all they did was sell oil for a while and then they bombed us. Here's. Let's make matters even worse. Here's the free The Financial Times 116. The Financial Times is. It takes the view Professor Pape and others have, which is this. This is an asymmetrical war and we're losing. After six months of war with Donald Trump, Iran can claim to have ceived one significant advantage. Washington is increasingly fighting at a pace set by Tehran. Over the past two weeks, Tehran has taken the initiative, launching preemptive attacks designed to exhaust the US and frighten its Arab allies into acquiescing to Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. Ladies and gentlemen, this is all, this is all a catastrophe. The moment we're in right now. I agree with Erik Erickson. This is going backwards to taco ing again to saying openly for the President, United States to say, the Saudis are calling the tune. I was going to do the biggest strike since World War II, but the Saudis decided I shouldn't, so I decided not to. And how is this being treated? Let me show you how it's being treated by the Washington Post. This momentous thing where the President says, I called off the biggest attack since World War II. I'm now negotiating again. That begins today with Iran on a, on a, on a war that is impacting the global economy. Here's what the Washington Post did 113. It's on the website this morning. When I was on the web this morning, early. Here are some of the stories that they. That were above the story of everything I just said earlier today. Okay, let me read you some of these headlines. Why the US doesn't have small elevators like Europe and China. 11 year old used his lasso to save a man drowning in the Yellowstone River. And my favorite, these US ice cream shops are worth the trip. According to experts, all those stories were considered more important to highlight for readers of the Washington Post, the daily newspaper of the nation's capital, than the President of the United States taco ing on World War II. Kevin, what am I missing here?

[Kevin Walling]

You're not missing a thing in terms of you.

[Mark]

Sorry, before people I see in the chat already jumping on the Washington Post. The New York Times did not lead with it. It was not the lead story on the. On most of the morning programs, not just the Washington Post. People are not treating this seriously, Kevin.

[Kevin Walling]

And to say nothing, those news articles that you point out, but the fact that there's, you know, reporting now that Iranian entities have hacked or struck engagement with some of our water treatment plants in seven states is an extraordinary factor here too, that should be leading the news everywhere. That you have these hackers that are breaching these servers and we're not talking about it.

[Mark]

Hogan, are there really going to be talks today? The President says talk start this afternoon. I don't know if you meant American time or, or Swiss time or what he meant, but are there really going to be talks and who will they be between?

[Hogan Gidley]

I think there will be talks this afternoon based on what the President said. That ice cream story, by the way, I think that was ghostwritten by Joe Biden, wasn't it?

[Mark]

I'd heard of three of the seven places. And just to be clear, it's a very good list. It's a very good list. I recommend it to you if you can afford a Washington Post subscription. It's a good list.

[Hogan Gidley]

Is he rating all the vanillas? No.

[Mark]

No.

[Professor Kenney]

Okay.

[Mark]

One of them is a cereal place.

[Hogan Gidley]

The talks, I think, will begin. Yeah.

[Mark]

Who will. Who will be the talk? Who will be in the talks? Oman and Iran about charging. Is Witkoff getting on a plane today? I'm serious. Okay. The President said there'd be talks today. Who's in the talks? I'm belligerent about this because what he did yesterday was absurd. It was absurd. He tacoed World War II because the Saudis asked him to.

[Hogan Gidley]

Well, like. But this goes to your further lamentation about the media writ large. Okay. I don't think they want to report on this or write on this. Not because, I mean, they hate Trump. They could say all the negative and nasty things they want to about him in this way. I think they're afraid that they'll turn people's perception of the war to a positive. So they're hands off.

[Mark]

So that we have to do. We have to do a media story. Here we go, ladies and gentlemen. I look at the Sunday show roundtable list in Politico because I don't watch the Sunday shows because they're just too boring and irrelevant. But I like to see who's on the roundtable. I like see when Hogan's on, when Kevin's on and, and I note all the time when they're just filled with a bunch of liberals because they often are. But yesterday's this Week roundtable I found particularly galling. It was moderated by a former Bill Clinton aide and the four people on it, two Democrats and two Republicans. The two Republicans were people virulently hostile to Donald Trump, at least on the topics they chose. Here is just a bit of the Sunday show panel from this week. 121, please.

[Professor Kenney]

I guess one thing you can say

[Hogan Gidley]

for certain is the President showed this week what he cares about most.

[Mark]

Yeah, look, it's revenge, revenge, revenge. No deal that Donald Trump gives you with his mouth is ever worth anything. And that he was going to enforce the written deal that he had. And Blanche knew it. And that's why Blanche wouldn't put it in writing, because the president wouldn't permit him to, because he doesn't work for us. The Justice Department is Donald Trump's professional legal firm.

[Hogan Gidley]

He has to get out of jail free card. Why not just admit that this is the President? The president basically said to all of us yesterday, I want this to happen.

[Mark]

This is all about what Donald wants. And it's not just revenge, revenge, revenge. Donald Trump does not like being told no. And if you tell him no, he's, that's the Republican, by the way. He certainly cares about immunity for anybody who has the last name Trump for the next several years.

[Hogan Gidley]

And that's. It's also impossible to feel sorry for anyone who throws in with this president and thinks they're going to be able to maintain some semblance of self respect or dignity. The second that you don't 100% back all of his craziest shenanigans, he's going to turn on you. No matter what your previous loyalty has

[Mark]

been don't put your pool guy in charge of the reflective pool. Donald Trump came into power all right with a line. It goes on and on. The president just on Truth Social said this. My real polling numbers, not those made up by the fake news media, are the best they have ever been. I'll just stop there. Hogan, is that true? Yes or no? Don't know.

[Hogan Gidley]

I've not seen his poll.

[Mark]

Do you have realtorpolitics.com on your phone right now? What's the average 30. And wouldn't they be with the biggest tax cuts and unemployment numbers ever, the biggest outside investment ever, blah blah blah. Don't believe the radical left's fake poll numbers. They are crooked and corrupt just like the country destroying Democrats are crooked and corrupt. Vote Republican for greatness in America. Ridiculous.

[Hogan Gidley]

Golf one instead over the weekend.

[Mark]

He did very well in golf. He says. Kevin. He says people on Twitter were on fire over over that this week, including me. Here's my tweet. 122.

[Kevin Walling]

You got a lot of attention with it. Did.

[Mark]

It's, it's up to like I don't know, several hundred thousand. What passes for balance on a broadcast TV network Sunday show Roundtable. Two anti Trump Democrats matched with two anti Trump Republicans moderated by a former senior Democratic Party operative Clinton administration official. Here is Rick Grinnell. 124 replying to my tweet. Yes, the DC crowd doesn't understand their credibility problem. Here's Larry. 125. Yep. We don't, we, we don't deserve a literal seat at the table. The message is clear. Our political perspective is not worth worthy of consideration. The othering of the conservative pro Trump political class makes it that much easier to ignore and dismiss when one of us gets assassinated. Here is a guy named J. Hogan Gidley. 123. Welcome to the show. Mark, which show did you meet? Hogan, I didn't get your tweet. Now here's, here's a dissenting view. Most of the responses to my tweet were favorable. Here's Joy Larson. 126. Even now, even now they do they book a roundtable like that. If I were the host of that show and they said here are my roundtable people, I'd say those are two anti Trump Republicans. Of course if we're going to, if we're going to go all in, let's just book four Democrats.

[Hogan Gidley]

It's not that you're saying it, it's that you're struck by it. This is so obvious and has been.

[Mark]

I'm Outraged by it. I'm not the least bit struck by it.

[Hogan Gidley]

HOGAN I'm just two seconds ago, I'm struck.

[Mark]

I'm struck meaning I'm struck that it's happening still. Okay, still not that it's never happened.

[Hogan Gidley]

What you pointed out on Sunday is the reason the media's popularity sits between Congress.

[Mark]

But why are they do, but why do they do it?

[Hogan Gidley]

They do it because they hate every opposing position. The lack of self awareness and the massive unwarranted amounts of self righteousness is so stupid. It is.

[Mark]

They do it because they're stupid.

[Hogan Gidley]

KEVIN how do you defend. It's cowardice too. They don't want to defend their positions. They refuse to give other people other, other side with other voices a platform. They want to control it. MARK it's about control, okay? KEVIN the narrative. And if you have somebody that brings a different set of ideas or facts to it, they don't want any part of that.

[Mark]

KEVIN I would say two things about Fox. First of all, they don't pretend that they're ABC News number one and number two, they wouldn't do a panel like that almost ever. Occasionally they would, but most shows would have somebody who would be a defender of the President or the shoe on the other foot who would defend the democratic position.

[Kevin Walling]

Yeah, 100%. I give Fox a lot of credit. I mean that's where I spend most of my time.

[Mark]

Yes.

[Kevin Walling]

And even across all of our news programs on Fox you always have a Democrat and a Republican panel for the most part in a back and forth when I joined Shane but not Sunday

[Mark]

but just to be clear, not a Democrat who's not going to, who's going to trash Democrats. A Democrats who will defend the other side.

[Kevin Walling]

Well sometimes they both Democrats to just love to bash Democrats too for sure.

[Mark]

Sometimes. But not always. Not like that.

[Kevin Walling]

No. But, but, but honestly I get a bit, you know, you get a better, you know, hearing on Fox than you do a lot of these mainstream news programs on the first to admit it. And that's where, and that's where the eyeballs are when you look at the ratings. They're not on these, these mainstream Sunday shows. Shannon Breen gets great ratings, usually two journalists and a Republican and a Democrat and oftentimes I'm that Democrat. And there's a good back and forth, whether it be Carl Rowe, Ben Dominic, other Republicans, Molly Hemingway, others that are avowed, you know, supporters of the President they'll critique here and there as I do with the Democrats. But at least there's an actual conversation going on as opposed to just a panel of everyone singing from the choir.

[Mark]

I just, I don't understand how George Stephanopoulos approves that panel. I just don't understand it. And again, he was a Clinton adviser 30 years ago. But you got to be concerned about appearance. You can't just, you can't just say, well, they've accepted me on the right because I've been here a long time because Republicans come on my show. All right, two topics real quick. I wish we could spend longer, but I want to get to questions. Please raise your hand if you want to get in on the conversation. There was a, an extraordinary Sunday show segment yesterday with Dana Bash interviewing Bobby Kennedy. Bobby Kennedy went after her much harder than a guest normally would on, on, on less on ideology than on competence. She kept making claims and he kept saying, cited study. And she couldn't. Everybody should watch it if you're interested in politics and media. Kevin, who won that exchange on points to Kennedy or Bash?

[Kevin Walling]

Kennedy, because is, you know, Trump likes to see that. I think we all just lost as the American people in general, you know, just shouting over one another. And I think, you know, Kennedy took it to a personal level, attacking her, you know, and then that's what got her fired up and stuff like that, because she is a good, a good, well sourced journalist and usually a straight shooter on a lot of this stuff.

[Mark]

Hogan, who won and why?

[Hogan Gidley]

I think Kennedy won because he further exposed the lack of critical thinking by the mainstream media. And Mark, you know this. One of the seminal characteristics of a journalist is curiosity. It just seems as though a lot of these people take whatever's given to them if they like it and parrot it. And there was an exchange about being a parrot, which I found funny, too. But he won because he said, as you pointed out, show me what you're. Give me something. If you read the science. I've read the science, I've read the data. And it reminded people of a time when they refused to give voice to those who questioned the great Dr. Fauci. And that is a point of contention. The lack of understanding of not just the American people's anger, disgust, but also distrust of the experts is really fascinating. And the, the lack of a mea culpa from the media. Go, you know what? We got it wrong too. We should have given other people more voices. We were scared at the time. We didn't know what this was. It was unforeseen. It was unprecedented. We should have given other voices to this. They didn't. And I think Kennedy did a really good job pinning her to the wall on that. And look, I like Dana. Kevin and I both know Dana. We hang out. I've had dinner with Dana. I know her kid, adorable, all those things. It's just, you know, I think he won that exchange.

[Mark]

All right, there's a story in the New York Times that ran about an hour ago about the autopsy report and a chapter in the autopsy report that was left out of what was released publicly that involved holding the Democrats accountable for what happened in the presidential election. Amongst the things it says, written by the author, who's a Democratic strategist who hasn't done a presidential campaign in 20 years, Friend of the chairman. Is that part of why the Democrats didn't adapt to the environment in 2024 was because some of their consultants have made millions of dollars? Some of the Joe Biden's advisors, it didn't name them, but it said that that may have been a factor in their failure to understand what was going on with the country. Kevin, who are the consultants that this guy was referring to?

[Kevin Walling]

I'm sure he's talking about Tom Donlan. Right. And it was well reported that he was going to get four or six million dollars.

[Mark]

You think only Tom Donlon or other

[Kevin Walling]

people, maybe others around him. But again, this is, this is just such a distraction. And, and I read the article. One of the more amazing things and I guess I didn't realize is that this guy that wasn't paid to do this, this was like a volunteer gig. He was volunteer and he was doing it part time. And when all the pressure mounted on the chairman to release this, he went back to his friend and said, send me what you have. So this wasn't a serious effort, you know, commissioned by the dnc, paid for to do this. And we, any Hogan, anyone, we all could have written this autopsy. The President shouldn't run again. He aged before our eyes. He hung on too long. There was an anti incumbent fervor across the entire world. And you know, it was not a no brainer in terms of all these communities that the President Trump made inroads with because of those frustrations.

[Mark]

Done.

[Kevin Walling]

Period. Pay me, pay me. You know, 10k a month to write that paragraph.

[Mark]

Yeah, yeah, right. Life's generational wealth. All right, ladies and gentlemen, word from a sponsor, then to your questions. First show of August, which means our friends at Cozy Earth have a new promotion going on for, for August. You can get the beach towels and the bath towels, as I said, double towels for 20 off along with everything else. On the site. Go to cozy earth.com use the promo code Morning and ladies and gentlemen, you might think towels are for humans. Well, think about if your dog goes swimming or gets caught in the rain, you're going to need towels, soft towels for your pup. May I recommend you do that? Here's Evie, who doesn't have the towels as far as I know, but Evie's got the bubble cuddle blanket. Kevin again, as always, I'll require your powers of description to tell people listening oh my God.

[Kevin Walling]

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[Mark]

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[Heath Pierce]

I'm Heath Pierce, former U.S. men's National Team player with stops in the Bundesliga, MLS, Denmark and Sweden. I'm the host of Orange Slices, sponsored by FanDuel Predicts. I've seen this game from every angle and I know that American soccer has a history most people haven't heard. Orange Slices is where where we changed that. And with the World cup coming to the US this summer, there has never been a better time to fall in love with this game. The show is about the people and the moments that don't always make the highlight reel, but help shape everything we love about this game. We're talking to current and former national team players, but also celebrities, creators and fans with a real personal connection to soccer. You'll hear behind the scenes stories, locker room moments, the kind of stuff people usually only talk about when the cameras are off. So whether you've been following the game for decades or you're just falling in love with it now, Orange Slices is your soccer hang all summer long. Twice a week, we'll be publishing episodes to keep you up to date with all things World cup and more. Orange Slices sponsored by FanDuel Predicts. Listen to Orange Slices wherever you get your podcasts.

[Mark]

Here we go, ladies and gentlemen to your questions, we start with Professor Kenny. Proper way to start the week, Professor. Welcome in. I hope you're going to trash this week Roundtable or the President on a rock.

[Kevin Walling]

Mainstream media, but the floor is yours

[Mark]

for whatever you wish.

[Professor Kenney]

Yeah, I did see the round table because I heard Christie's voice in, in the, in the living room with the TV on, and I, I walked in and it's just a disgrace. You can't watch.

[Kevin Walling]

Is he, is he paid by abc? Is he a paid contributor?

[Professor Kenney]

Oh, yeah, he's. He's on that roundtable, like, every week, I believe.

[Mark]

Yeah, yeah, he's just about every week he's been a paid contributor. I have no reason to think he's not.

[Hogan Gidley]

I see what you did there, Professor Kenny. Roundtable. I got you. I'm picking it up, by the way.

[Professor Kenney]

Hogan, very good to see you, my friend.

[Heath Pierce]

So.

[Professor Kenney]

So I wanted to bring up my favorite topic, Iran and Trump, which drives me, Mark, totally insane. I was thinking about how he manipulates the market. You know, it's always on a Sunday or, you know, Saturday into Sunday, manipulates the market and, you know, then the oil prices come down, the market's great. I'm wondering, here's my question. Is there going to come a time when he, when he does this and the markets don't move, does that change the way he, he handles this? You know what I mean? He's like, wow, I tried to manipulate the market.

[Mark]

It's a height, it's a hypothetical with no basis in fact. Because it works every time.

[Professor Kenney]

It works every time. I know, you're right. You're 100, right.

[Mark]

And.

[Professor Kenney]

But the other thing is now listening to mbs, who, who, by the way, you know, people make fun of Trump because he tacos. MBS is all over the place, too. He's like, you gotta, you gotta end these guys and then don't. And these guys.

[Mark]

100%. Professor, I'm glad you said that. It's not just true of the Saudis, it's true of the Gulf states, too. Yeah, they talk out to both sides of their mouth. Just the way you said. One day they're saying, you got to get, you got to end them. Another day they're saying, oh, don't, don't hit them, because I'll hit us. So you're absolutely right. But to me, that makes it even more ridiculous that the United States President is saying publicly I ended World War II because the Saudis asked me to.

[Professor Kenney]

Yeah, it's ridiculous. And what he needs to do with the carrot and the stick is he needs them to give, give us the carrot while he's holding the stick first before anything. So you never, you don't remove that blockade until they show us something. But he doesn't do that and it's just ridiculous.

[Mark]

So they won't, they won't give us, they won't give us anything. Hogan. Yeah, Hogan, you've been in the room, as you said, tell us how this ends. What's, what's the base case outcome of this thing now?

[Hogan Gidley]

I mean, look, I think, I think we go back to kinetic activity sooner rather than later again because Iran is going to Iran every time.

[Mark]

But what happened, but what happens when the Saudis object?

[Hogan Gidley]

Well, I mean, I don't think it's going to matter to Trump if it begins to, if it settles in, it's hurting our economy more and our people more.

[Mark]

I think we're back to our. The Strategic Petroleum reserve is at its lowest level and forever. The gas is above $4 a gallon. Hogan, it's all this life changing generational wealth that you've made. You don't understand, like Joe Biden's advisors, just how bad things are for people.

[Hogan Gidley]

Yeah, I do think there's something we've talked about on the show before and I don't want to be harsh, but I think there is still a mentality in Washington D.C. and a lot of people in the president's ear, quite frankly, who had the idea that Colin Powell made famous, which is you break it, you bought it. We don't have to buy it, we can just break it. And I think if Donald Trump were to say, all right, you know what, you've been attacking us forever, we're just going to bomb you into nothing and let you figure it out, then that may be harsh and people may reject that. What do you do afterwards? We don't have to spend trillions of dollars trying to make them something they're not going to be. You can just bomb them for the sake of

[Mark]

both in Iran and elsewhere in the region. If they, if they, I'm not, I'm not discounting that.

[Hogan Gidley]

I'm just saying, like there's that mentality because then you dip a toe in, you gotta put your foot in.

[Mark]

Kevin, it seemed, according to the reporting of the Journal, that and, and what the president himself said, that he was about to launch massive strike far bigger than in the early phases of the war. What would the. Kevin, what do you think the U. S. Reaction would have been? And again, it's got perspective, interest, because he could still do it. How will Americans react to something like that?

[Kevin Walling]

Likely not. Well, I think there's this growing frustration, and again, we talked about this last week, that it's not just Democrats and a majority of independents, but a good number of MAGA Republicans. See the President's failure to make the case here, really for this increased activity in action and why we're there. And to Hogan's point, I get the idea of we can break it and walk away, but we're already seeing the more radical elements of the Iran. And radical is a, an amorphous term here because everyone's radical in Tehran. The more radical elements are taking over. And if we do break it, what comes later? And, you know, is it just going to be the cycle of every two years we increase this bombing campaign? The other factor that we didn't talk about with Professor Kenney's question is this new reporting and the leaking coming from Department of Defense war on military stockpiles, the Eurocom chief now saying that they're depleted to the point where he can effectively defend a lot of our forward positioning in the region with interceptors because of the depletion. So you also had this X factor with the military signaling some things here as well in terms of what our capabilities are going forward if there is that increased kinetic activity.

[Mark]

Super important. This story ran over the weekend in the Washington Post. It's the third, at least by my count, time when people in the military have, quote, unquote, leaked to make it clear that the president, if he pursues massive strikes, does so having been told by the military we're not in a position to defend our own ships, Israel and other allies in the region and American bases in the region the way we would have been at the start of the war because our stockpiles are down. They, they may be exaggerating because sometimes the military is the first to not want to fight a war. Often that's the case. But he's on, they're on record now, quote, unquote, with the Washington Post, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and others saying we don't have the ability we used to have. And therefore a big World War II level strike would be riskier than it would have been several months.

[Professor Kenney]

Mark, in the, in the Wall Street Journal at the end of last week, Admiral Bradley Cooper, also known as this singer with Lady Gaga, he, he said he had a plan of attack for two weeks that would limit, that would do so much destruction on Iran that we wouldn't have to worry about our interceptors.

[Mark]

Yeah, that's right, but that, but that's not apparently a universally held view. Professor, tell everybody about the after show because we have a lot of new audience members here.

[Professor Kenney]

Yeah. So I recommend everybody come on the Post show. It comes on Mark's on Sirius XM at 10. So what we do is we run the post show at 10 through noon and we have Mark in the background for the first hour and you can call into his show 833-446-3496 and then 11 to 12, 11 to 12 we're on. And you could, you know, every, every hand that gets raised gets, gets to participate. We have massive, really good discussions. We have very intelligent people from this community on and we've really built this community over the last two years. It's pretty solid. And we also have a night show with Alan See hosting after two Ways.

[Mark]

Grateful to Professor Allen and others for spearheading that. And it's always been our vision of two way to have community conversations that can extend beyond a regular programming. So we're grateful to you for leading that.

[Dave]

Thank you, Professor.

[Professor Kenney]

Thanks, Mark.

[Mark]

Great.

[Kevin Walling]

And Professor Kennedy just put it in the chat in terms of how to join that.

[Dave]

Thank you.

[Mark]

Thank you. All right, Dave, welcome in. Tell folks who don't know where you are what's on your mind for J. Hogan Gidley and Kevin Walling.

[Dave]

Good morning, guys. I'm in South Carolina and. Hey, Hogan, nice to see you on the show. Hey, man.

[Mark]

Three South Carolinians on the odd. Man out.

[Dave]

Yeah, I just moved back.

[Mark]

Welcome back. Have you been to Maurice's Piggy park yet?

[Dave]

I have not.

[Mark]

Recommend. Recommend. What's on your mind, Dave?

[Dave]

Really? I guess the Iran situation. I think it is quite annoying, the constant, you know, backing down from this. I really do think that these Gulf states are, you know, they've not taken this time to prepare and, and they're just kind of crying wolf about the reality that they probably will get hit pretty hard if we start going after you.

[Mark]

You don't think that, you don't think they'd get hit?

[Dave]

No, that they probably will get, get

[Mark]

hit pretty hard, especially they're not really crying wolf. They're. They're expressing their concern.

[Dave]

Well, I think they're, they're crying wolf because they kind of go back and forth like you've been saying.

[Mark]

Absolutely.

[Kevin Walling]

Right.

[Mark]

Absolutely.

[Dave]

But I just, I really just personally, I really hope that, that.

[Mark]

What do you want to, what do you want him to do, Dave?

[Dave]

Probably follow what, what Admiral Cooper said recently. Right. As far as.

[Mark]

Hit him. Hit him. World War II level for two weeks.

[Dave]

Well, yeah, I mean, when, when they stopped bombing, they, Admiral Cooper had said at the time that they still had about 2,500 targets left in that initial package that they did not hit.

[Professor Kenney]

Yeah.

[Dave]

So it seems like this is just kind of completing. Completing that. Yes. I hope they hit them hard. And, you know, if that doesn't work, you start going on to, to do dual use targets like, you know, facilities that are military involved or even bridges, stuff like that. Kevin, I think you can do that without taking out civilian resources to a good extent.

[Mark]

Yeah, although they will. It would hurt the civilian economy. Kevin.

[Kevin Walling]

Dave, you make an excellent point that we didn't really touch on too, is the idea that so many of these Gulf allies within the region have different aims. Right. So you have Oman dealing directly with the Iranians. They have this dream of a toll system jointly operated by the two of them. You have other allies with all different aims in the region, to say nothing of Israel. Right. And the aims of Israel too, to continue this and to totally decimate not just operations in Tehran, but also the support of proxies. You got the Saudis with Yemen and the Houthis and that element of it as well. So you have all these competing interests in addition to our interest in the region as well. It's a really good point, Hogan.

[Hogan Gidley]

Yeah, Dave, that was a more. Kevin gave you a more articulate version of what I said earlier, which is foreign policy is just tough. It's very nuanced, it's very difficult. We have partners and allies in the region that we rallied around the common idea that the reality existed Iran was a bad player. That's how we got the Abraham Accords in the first term with. In addition, now we're seeing the same thing play out as Kevin just articulated many different groups that we really want to partner with in some form or fashion moving forward. So if you go all in and do something militarily with Iran, how does that affect the other relationships and the other partnerships you have in the region? These are things you have to think through because these are centuries old problems, Right. We can't fix all of this being America, even though we'd love to, and giving them iPhones and Domino's Pizza is not going to make them democratic any stretch. So there's just a lot here and I can appreciate you. I do think some more military targets, in addition to the military targeting and some more sanctions, more economic pressure is really going to make them crumble. But, you know, we got to be willing to do it, and by the way, if you went all in and did all these things, the media be saying, look, Trump's a warmonger, he wants to kill everybody. He doesn't care about brown people. Like, that's what the narrative would be. So, again, he can't win for losing on these things.

[Mark]

Dave, thank you. Great question. And, and thank you, Dave. You know, I don't wanna, I don't want to overreact to two, two people with their hands up and what they said, but this, this, this ability of the President to just taco and taco and taco on this. It may, the markets may still react, the price of oil may still react, but, uh, midterm voters can't help but notice there's an unpopular war being handled, in the view of Eric Erickson and many others, like a clown show. It just, you just can't handle something this serious like a clown 92 days

[Kevin Walling]

out from the election.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Hogan Gidley]

As, as Ben Dominance said one time, it matters who wins. If it seemed that we win 100%, all of this doesn't matter.

[Mark]

100% agree. 100% agree. But, but as a snapshot of today, if you did a focus group with the most MAGA people, even people who supported the beginning of the war, and you said to them, what do you think of the President's taco ing this week? I can't imagine people would say, oh, that's great, it's part of a master plan to, to win. In the end, it just, it just looks like crap. Just does. Noon today. Megan McCain has Noah Rothman of National Review. Please join Megan on Citizen McCain at new noon 5:00 o' clock tonight. Steve Elmendorf and Elizabeth Pipko are my guests. On two way tonight, full coverage of everything. 7:00 clock tonight. Ethan Supley, lifelong Ethan's program is one you should sample if you have not. In a moment, I will be over in SiriusXM with the playback of the morning meeting, plus taking your calls and we'll be back tomorrow. Is Larry back tomorrow? Yeah, I gotta go.

[Hogan Gidley]

Steve Belmendorf related to the person the Elmendorf Air Force Base is named after?

[Mark]

I don't believe so, but I'll ask him. Thank you, but Hogan for being here. Kevin, great to see you. Going to head over to SiriusXM and I'll see everybody there in a moment.

[Hogan Gidley]

Thanks, guys.

[Kevin Walling]

Thanks, everybody.

[Mark]

Great day, everybody.

[Hogan Gidley]

Thanks. I'm James Patterson. I write way too many books. Welcome to Hungry Dogs. The title comes from my maternal grandmother, Isabel Zelvis Morris. Nan used to always say, Hungry dogs run faster, James. And I've been running fast ever since. Here's what will be coming your way soon, and this is a really terrific list. I think you'll hear from some incredible people like Stacey Abrams.

[Kevin Walling]

Yay.

[Hogan Gidley]

BJ Novak. Yay.

[Mark]

Kathy Bates.

[Hogan Gidley]

Dolly Parton, Josh Gad. And Pope Leo. Okay, maybe not Pope Leo, but who knows? Maybe he'll show up. Hungry dogs run faster. Thank you, Grandma, for turning me into a hopeless, obsessive, compulsive. Listen to Hungry Dogs with James Patterson. That'd be me on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcast. Thank you, thank you, thank you.