Tankers Burn and War Widens as Iran Menaces Oil Routes in Bid To Sow Chaos, Drive Up Prices

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Morning Meeting

Episode: Tankers Burn and War Widens as Iran Menaces Oil Routes in Bid To Sow Chaos, Drive Up Prices
Date: March 12, 2026
Host: Mark Halperin (2WAY), with Larry and Melissa

Episode Overview

This episode of The Morning Meeting dives into the rapidly evolving conflict in the Middle East, focusing on Iran’s military actions to disrupt oil shipping routes, threats to global energy markets, and the American response. The conversation covers the major strategic, political, and diplomatic stakes for the U.S., analysis of leadership messaging (especially President Trump’s), risks of escalation—including cyber and domestic attacks—and input from the 2WAY listener community.
While the Iran crisis is center stage, the roundtable also briefly touches on related political issues in the U.S. and Ukraine, as well as the significance of communication and public support during wartime.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Strategic Stakes: Strait of Hormuz and the Global Oil Market

• Criticality of the Strait: All hosts agree that reopening the Strait to shipping is essential for the world economy and U.S. credibility.
  • Mark: “Controlling this is going to be really difficult. So, Larry, the first question is, do you agree that the U.S. has to control the strait?” [06:00]
  • Melissa: “The strait is where the Middle East conflict becomes an American economic problem.” [07:51]
• Risks and Complexity:
  • Iran uses asymmetric tactics—drones, mines, local boats—against shipping, making military solutions perilous and costly.
  • Melissa: "Too dangerous. You’d be putting too many American lives at risk… We are where we are and we're at a stalemate, Larry." [07:51]
• Allies and Global Interests:
  • Major economies (China, India, Japan, Europe) all depend on the strait; some hosts float the idea that China could pressure Iran to open it.
  • Larry: “If any country still does [have influence], China would be one of them.” [11:31]

2. Military Tactics, Quagmire Fears, and the Perils of Escalation

• Risk of Ground Commitment:
  • U.S. has Marines poised for limited strikes, but risks entanglement reminiscent of Iraq/Afghanistan.
  • Mark: “Boots on the ground in Iraq were not supposed to be there for a long time either, Larry. Or Afghanistan.” [09:57]
  • Melissa: “What may start off as a limited strike… never really ends there. Then we’re in quagmire land.” [12:08]
• Pressure for Immediate Results:
  • Military action must be swift: “Has to be done in two weeks or the price of oil will be $200 a barrel.” [08:37]

3. Mixed Messaging and Leadership Communication

• Presidential Contradictions:
  • Trump asserts U.S. is in “very good shape” in the strait, but hosts strongly disagree, citing contradictory internal views and on-the-ground realities.
    • President Trump (clip): “They have no navy… The Straits are in great shape.” [14:07]
    • Mark: “The Strait’s not in great shape, and people in his own administration know that.” [14:42]
• Public Messaging Critique:
  • All hosts & callers highlight muddled goals, lack of clear exit strategy, and insufficient communication about why, why now, and to what end.
    • Melissa: “Communication underpinning this entire mission has been so poor from start to finish… It’s rattling people.” [44:43]
  • Larry suggests lack of a “Norman Schwarzkopf” style clear public briefing is a major deficiency. [06:05]

4. Escalating Threats: Drones, Cyber, Sleeper Cells

• New Fronts in the Conflict:
  • Iran utilizing drones, threatening sleeper cell and cyber attacks on U.S. soil—potentially opening multiple fronts of warfare.
    • Mark: “If Iran has capability to hit the United States domestically… and if they start going into our banks… disrupt American life in a very fundamental way.” [19:11]
  • Melissa recounts her experience as New York’s Secretary, emphasizing how a state-level Iranian cyberattack almost became a major disaster in 2020. [20:20]

5. Alliances, Diplomacy & Israel’s Position

• US-Israel Tensions:
  • Questions about the U.S. potentially walking away before Israel’s minimum goals achieved; fundamental misalignment of endgames.
    • Melissa: “You guys have to be the frontline, boots on the ground, because American troops cannot be.” [24:02]
    • Mark: “Political interests of the U.S. and Israel are not aligned currently, and they're going to become less aligned as this goes forward.” [25:41]
• Diplomatic Hope or Illusion?
  • Scepticism about negotiating a real settlement with Iran’s new leadership, but “walk in the woods” backchannels may be open—even if outcome is murky.
    • Larry: “I think they're talking to either one of two groups of people…” [27:39]
    • Melissa: “It doesn't seem that way today [that regime change could be negotiated].” [28:49]

6. Domestic Political Implications and Public Opinion

• Fractures in U.S. Support:
  • Support for the mission divided: even many Republicans and most independents skeptical, with Democrats largely opposed or frustrated due to poor communication and uncertain goals.
  • Melissa: “When you don't have all of the Republicans unified, you’ve got to ask yourself why?” [54:31]
• Speculation on War's End:
  • Polymarket predictions: only 48% probability Strait traffic returns to normal by April 30th; 42% chance President Trump ends military operations before the Xi summit.
  • Larry: “Downshifted, ramped down? Yes. Over? No.” [32:06]

7. Brief Touch: Ukraine, Domestic Politics, and Jill Biden’s Book

• Ukraine:
  • Zelensky feeling mounting pressure as U.S. attention shifts; oil prices could help Putin; spring may see intensification of fighting. [33:25]
• U.S. Politics:
  • Discussion of Senate political maneuvering, the SAVE Act, and Cornyn’s relationship with Trump/MAGA.
• New Books:
  • Lighthearted speculation over who will be targeted in upcoming Jill Biden memoir. [37:51–39:44]

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Notable Quotes

• Mark Halperin:

  • “If the Trump administration is as prepared for the cyber attacks and for the sleeper cells as they were for the dealing with the Strait of Hormuz and the drones, we're in big trouble.” [21:41]
  • “Accept the premise at Newt Gingrich and others—this has to be done, zero sum has to be done. Accept the premise that… it's going to be really difficult to do just those two things. I don’t know how you couldn't be somewhat… concerned about an effort which now involves… American prestige.” [50:02]

• Melissa:

  • “A nuclear Iran can't exist for us to feel safe… I want this to go well. But I find a lot of this very troubling. It could be solved in part, at least with better communication.” [44:43]
  • “It can’t be overstated how complicated and dangerous it is at this particular moment.” [07:51]

• Larry:

  • “If we had Norman Schwarzkopf giving us daily briefings with a just-the-facts approach, I think that things would be a little bit better right now… that’s my biggest criticism right now of this effort.” [06:05]
  • “I would actually bring it up to 55-60% [chance Strait is open by 4/30] only because by April 30, if we are exactly where we are right now, then I would be as Eeyore-like as you are.” [15:51]

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Important Timestamps

• Opening Analysis: [00:04 – 03:32]
  Mark’s shift in outlook, laying out stakes and format.

• Strategic Stakes & Strait of Hormuz: [06:00 – 09:15]

• Discussion of Military Risks & Quagmire: [09:15 – 12:08]

• President Trump’s Remarks & Market Bets: [14:07 – 16:03]

• Cyber & Sleeper Cell Threats: [19:11 – 21:41]

• Supreme Leader’s Statement, Israel-US Relations: [22:22 – 25:41]

• Listener Chris Jones (Optimism vs. Concern): [42:23 – 53:29]

  • Notable exchange on bottom-line risks, expert consensus, and public buy-in.

• Listener Kenneth & Political Leadership: [53:49 – 59:37]

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Memorable Moments

• Melissa’s personal story: About a near-crisis Iranian cyber attack on New York’s IT system in 2020. [20:20]

• Hosts call for improved messaging: Both to unify the country and to clarify war aims.

  • “He could have done at the State of the Union, could have done a presidential address from the Oval Office. He could have done a lot of different things. And it almost felt like he has an aversion to having to explain himself.” [55:31, Melissa]

• Audience pushback: Listeners Chris and Kenneth, both Trump supporters, challenge the panel’s negativity and probe whether their caution is justified given U.S. capabilities.

• Mark’s “Walter Cronkite moment”: The host’s willingness to voice public skepticism, invoking the gravity and trust of historical anchors. [06:04]

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Tone and Community Ethos

• Conversational, candid, and occasionally irreverent
• Mark: Openly “Eeyore-ish” (cautiously pessimistic) but invites opposing, optimistic perspectives.
• Larry: Strives for analysis from multiple angles—political, military, historical.
• Melissa: Details practical and emotional risks, with an emphasis on the stakes for regular Americans and consensus-building communication.

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Final Takeaways

• All hosts agree: The stakes are enormous; the Strait of Hormuz is a global economic chokepoint, and a swift, successful resolution is critical.
• Healthy skepticism: There is official optimism, but experts and panelists worry that public confidence and effective strategy are lacking.
• Domestic consequences: Risks now include not just military quagmire but also cyber and homeland security threats, energy market shocks, and fraying alliances.
• Call for clarity and leadership: Unified, transparent communication from the White House is urgently needed to rally support and define success.

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“If the Straits [of Hormuz] open in two weeks, [the] proof will be in the pudding. But… there are a lot of reasons to be skeptical this is going to be as successful as the President has said.”
— Mark Halperin [53:01]

Transcript

[Caller/Listener]

Foreign.

[Mark]

It's wartime. Quagmire, time and time to decide if this is a good idea. I've got a lot of thoughts about this conflict now, and I've really changed my impression of where things are headed in the last 36 hours. And I'll try not to let that color everything I say. I'm rooting for success and I don't, I don't, I'm not hopeless about this, but, boy, there's a lot going on just in this news cycle that very, very dangerous for America. Larry, are you, are you at all braced by the last 36 hours? Anything you see in the last three hours concerning you?

[Larry]

Well, those are two different questions. Of course, I highly relate, but I think I usually like to wait until at least two weeks before I start thinking. Quagmire, you wait two weeks.

[Melissa]

But we were supposed to be done before two weeks.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Larry]

Wait, who told you that?

[Melissa]

I don't know. It's what I read.

[Mark]

Yeah. Anyway, we're going to talk a lot about Iran today. There's a few other topics we'll, we'll almost certainly get to. Melissa's here, Larry's here. Thank you both for being here. There's a lot going on with Ukraine as well as we'll talk about that. And I know Larry wants to talk about Jill Biden's book, so hopefully more than for that. But, but most of all, we'll focus Dr. Jill Biden. Most of all, we're going to talk about Iran and, and what I consider to be some extraordinary developments in the last day since we last gathered on this program. We'll run through the news, the daybook and then the news and then would love your participation. Would love to hear from folks, as always, if you never raised your hand before, particularly if you've got concerns about what's going on. You think questions to ask our guests, but just in general, maybe questions you'd like to ask the president who's currently probably watching the show. So an opportunity to speak directly to the commander in chief, please, if you're on the platform here, raise your hand. Thing about the chat, you know, I say peace, love and understanding, no smack in the chat, but the chat's for everybody. No bullying in the chat. If you like the president and you don't like liberals, you can engage in a friendly way there. But please don't bully people out of the chat. The chat's for everybody. This community, this platform is for everybody. So please, please try to be respectful of all points of view because there are tens of millions of Americans who disagree with your views on the war. No matter what your views on the war are, there are tens of millions who disagree with you. Thank you for your attention to that matter. All right, the the the Daybook coming up in one minute after this word from a sponsor, Cozy Earth, one of our sponsors. You perhaps have heard me talk about Cozy Earth. If you've ever listened to the program and don't daydream cozy earth 20% off everything on the site go to cozyearth.com use the promo code morning for a full 20% off everything on the site this March. Cozy Earth crafts every piece with care. I think they probably do every month. Soft supportive socks for your steps through the day to breathable comforters that help you rest deeply at night. Everything there is well made with a 20% discount. You're not going to beat it on price and quality. Try it today. If you've not bought anything from Cozy Earth. Join many members of the two way community and many of your hosts here who've festooned their abode with lots of different things from Cozy Earth to the bedroom to the bathroom to the workshop and the and the the workout shop, whatever that might be. 20% off go to cozyearth.com use the promo code morning for your discount. 20% off everything on the site. And again, I've gone from pushing the bubble cuddle blanket to pushing the socks because it's sock season. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

[Larry]

This is it. The world as you know it is over. Completely done. It's not about to be over. It's over.

[Narrator/News Reader]

Some of the scientists who helped build

[Mark]

AI are now sounding the alarm.

[Larry]

I was selling AI as a great thing for decades and I was wrong. I was wrong.

[Melissa]

There's a longer term existential threat that

[Mark]

will arise when we create digital beings

[Melissa]

that are more intelligent than ourselves.

[Mark]

We have no idea whether we can stay in control.

[Narrator/News Reader]

While others say that AI will usher

[Mark]

in unfathomable abundance, I've always believed that it's going to be the most important invention that humanity will ever make.

[Larry]

This really will be a world of abundance.

[Narrator/News Reader]

And among these fears and these fantasies, we seek the story of our future.

[Mark]

Listen to the last invention on Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, the Day Book. As I said, the president camped out at home today. He's not. After a day on the road doing some political stuff and some economic stuff. Eight o' clock, he began his executive time in the Oval. 10:00 Clock gets his intel briefing 1:30 Participates in a policy meeting. 3:15 Participates in a policy meeting. All those things close press. So if nothing changes, we will not see the president today until 4pm right before two way tonight when he participates with the first lady in a Woman's History Month event that is open to pre credentialed media. We'll see if he talks there. Vice President no public events known. Tomorrow he's going to Rocky Mountain, North Carolina. House remains out this week. The Senate is in. They're voting on the housing legislation at 11:30 and another test vote on the DHS funding bill at 145. Housing bill story remains super interesting. Probably won't have time for it today, but it's a super interesting political and policy story. All right, Larry and Melissa, my topic of my monologue on next up is going to be my Walter Cronkite moment where I just am going to raise a lot of questions about how this is going. I'll do that in brief here. Controlling the straight Newt Gingrich says if the strait isn't controlled, the war will be lost. And controlling the strait is. None of us are military experts, but based on my conversations yesterday, controlling this is going to be really difficult. Really difficult. So, Larry, the first question is, do you agree that the US has to control the strait? And how would you define controlling the strait?

[Larry]

Well, I agree that the danger in the strait needs to be mitigated and eliminated. So I mean, controlling the strait means that tankers can pass and peacefully without any threat. Obviously, I think that that who controls it, whether it's the US Controlling it or our allies and other countries who have an interest in making sure that the strait is safe. That's yet to be determined. But I would caution you about your, your, your planned Walter Cronkite moment, Mark, because again, I mean, how many years had the Vietnam War gone on before Uncle Walter made his commentary? And number one, and number two, he actually went to Vietnam and looked at for himself at our efforts on the ground. A lot of what's informing your position right now is your crack reporting and also reporting of other journalists. But I think that one of the problems right now is that we're not having a great messaging and PR campaign. If we had Norman Schwarzkopf giving us daily briefings with a just the facts approach, I think that things would be a little bit better right now. And that's my biggest criticism right now of this effort.

[Mark]

Yeah. Well, we'll run through, we'll run through some of my other concerns besides the ones I've already raised and see if I can't convince you that at least attention must be played. Melissa, Larry said it's got to be opened back up and maybe allies will help. The Chinese would seem to have an incentive to open up the Strait. But the problem is I don't see, I don't see, I don't see the Saudis. I read a thing just a moments ago that said maybe the Saudis will try to open it back up. Once again, it's Donald Trump versus the. I don't have the Israelis open it back up. So, Melissa, as you look at it, does it seem a essential that it open back up? And open back up, as far as I can tell, means free passage.

[Caller/Listener]

All the

[Mark]

complicated is that mission.

[Melissa]

I think it's extremely complicated. It can't be overstated how complicated and dangerous it is at this particular moment. And the strait is where the Middle east conflict becomes an American economic problem. And I think that obviously Iran knows that and they know the buttons to push that are damaging for Donald Trump and this mission and the American economy. And so they're going to do everything they can for as long as they can to make this as difficult as possible. And right now, any mission to try to go, I was reading, obviously, should we be sending naval ships to escort through the strait? It's too dangerous. You'd be putting too many American lives at risk. And so at this point, I think that we are where we are and we're at a stalemate, Larry.

[Mark]

There, there are going to be no ships escorting. Military ships escorting. They're looking at clearing the coast. Some reporting today says the only way to clear the coast is with boots on the ground destroying these tiny little boats, destroying the submarines or getting them out of there, destroying their minelaying capacity. These are not easy things and it's asymmetrical. We could destroy everything and then they hit one ship and then that's it. So, and this has to be done quickly. This isn't something my sources say that can take two months. This has to be done in two weeks or the price of oil will be $200 a barrel.

[Larry]

So, yeah, my understanding is that the biggest threat right now and the most effective attack that the Irish is using on these tankers is from the drones. And that's, that's bad news because they still have quite a few of them.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Larry]

But I'm told that the good news is all you need to do is isolate where these drones are being launched from and you can eliminate them. Whether that requires boots on the ground. I'm getting mixed reports of that. Yeah, but we do have boots prepared to go in, not for a long term, you know, expedition as we saw in Iraq and a in occupation.

[Mark]

Larry.

[Larry]

LARRY but what there are forces that are on ships waiting to come in to do small targeted strikes like that and then get back on the boots

[Mark]

on the ground in Iraq were not supposed to be there for a long time either. Larry. Or Afghanistan.

[Larry]

Well, there were 200,000 troops. It was going to be a major effort and they were going to be there. That's not what we've got waiting right now. There are there are, my understanding there are some Marine expedition units that have been poised on on navy vessels waiting to go in for small strikes.

[Mark]

So the Iraqi, the Iranians have not just hit a couple ships in the in the straits, they've hit a Japanese vessel, they've hit a vessel in Iraq. Do we have that video that the

[Larry]

Iraqis, they've allowed Indian ships. Have you seen that Indian flag?

[Mark]

Well, some, not not, I think just a few watch this video. For those of you watching the show rather than listening to it, they've also, I saw one report they've hit some Chinese ships. I don't know that this video is just the destruction of or damage, I guess maybe to an Iraqi ship. But this is not just bad for the American economy, as Melissa said, potentially. India heavily dependent on this strait. Japan heavily dependent. Europe somewhat dependent. LARRY, if the Chinese decided they wanted to open this back up, could they could the Chinese through force?

[Larry]

They militarily or diplomatically?

[Mark]

Either one. The Chinese, in other words. In other words, the president's got a summit with Xi in a couple of weeks. If this is still a problem or in advance of the summit, can he call Xi and say, hey, you guys need the oil, open it back up?

[Larry]

Yeah, if they still have influence with the Iranian government.

[Mark]

Well, but I'm not asking if I'm asking do they it's possible.

[Larry]

I don't know. I mean, if any country still does, China would be one of them. Right, because they were dealing with them when everybody else was supposed to be sanctioning them and not dealing with them. So it's possible. By the way, that's just if we could pause for a moment, China is suffering quite possibly even more than we are, and our neighbors are because of the Strait of Hormuz being locked up. And maybe that's sort of part of the strategy here, make China feel some pain, maybe.

[Mark]

But if it is, it may take a while. Melissa, what's A quagmire. In this case, what would have to happen for you to say this is now quagmire?

[Melissa]

I think that if another two weeks goes by and we can't get the straight open, I think if, as Larry just suggested, we have to actually put some boots on the ground and what may start off as a limited strike on specific targets, but I think, as you know, as students of history, we all know it never really ends there. Yeah, I think that then, you know, we're, then we're in quagmire land because how do you get out? How do you declare victory? Trump initially said that we had destroyed Iran's nuclear capability. We now know that's not the case. Trump wanted to take out the Ayatollah. He did. But he cut off the head of one leader and grew back in its place, a younger, potentially more dangerous version of them. It's clear that the current Iran regime is not going quietly into the night. Right. We've now got cyber attacks, potentially cells that are being activated, threats of west coast incoming. I don't know if we've got any new reporting on how true or not true that was made up. But the point being they're not just laying down.

[Mark]

Right.

[Melissa]

And so then the question becomes, is it ever our choice for this to end or are we then at the behest of Iran and on the point of China? Yes, this is hurting China more now in the short term because of their reliance on fuel that comes from, from the Middle East. But at the same time, a weakened America is also better for China. So I don't know what sort of 3D chess is playing out right now.

[Mark]

I left, I left Hormuz too quickly. Larry, would you say that vis a vis the Straits of Hormuz, the United States is in, quote unquote, great shape? Would you say right now we're in great shape?

[Larry]

Well, I know that the President just said.

[Mark]

Here's the President. Here's the President. 106 Throw a sound bite past here's the President. 106.

[Melissa]

Treasury Department buy oil futures as a means to keep the oil prices down or bring the oil.

[President Trump]

We're going to be in very good shape. You see what's happening. They are pretty much at the end of the line. Doesn't mean we're going to end it immediately. But they, they are. They've got no navy, they've got no air force, they've got no anti air traffic, anything. They have no systems of control. We're just riding free range over that country. And now we're going to look very strongly at the Straits. The Straits are in great shape. We've knocked out all of their boats. They have some missiles, but not very many. I think we're in very good. We're in very good shape.

[Mark]

One of the things I've changed my view on in the last 36 hours is I've said before, the President saying contradictory things was actually good for his strategy, is a good tactic for his strategy. I no longer think that because the Strait's not in great shape and the people in his own administration know that. Here is a polymarket question about the Strait of Hormuz. 115, please. And I'm curious to know what you guys think of this. Here's what Poly Market wagers, our partners at polymarket ask the question, will the Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by April 30th? That's, that's, that's a month and a half away. And again, if it doesn't return by then, it's going to be dire for the world economy. 48% chance, according to Poly Market wagers. I don't know what they know that I don't know. But Melissa, does that seem high or low to you or about right. 48% chance of normal traffic by April 30th.

[Melissa]

I mean, every day in this is going to change the, alter the trajectory. So I think that it's a little ridiculous to speculate that far out. So I don't know. I think.

[Mark]

Do you think? But do you think. Yeah. Larry, does that seem like right to you?

[Larry]

I think I would actually bring it up to 55 to 60% only because by April 30, if we are exactly where we are right now, then I would be as Eeyore like as you are.

[Mark]

Right. Okay. If you haven't read the Wall street journal story 108 about what a prolonged closure would mean for the region, for the world, for the war, for America's credibility, I recommend it to you. Here's the headline from the Wall Street Journal. Escalating Hormones Crisis raises specter of prolonged closure. Here's a quote. Escalating Iranian attacks on the US Government's decision to hold off on military escorts. Oil tankers through the Army's are raising the prospect of a prolonged closure that would choke off exports through the world's most important energy transport route. Again, my understanding is it's not going to be escorts, except, except through air. There may be air escorts through, but we'll see if that really does work. Okay.

[Larry]

Yeah, yeah. If the last time this was an issue, even 2019, actually, the last time when Iran threatened to do this, it was a very different world because they didn't have the drone capability they had now. Back in the good old days when it was just mining in these little speedboats from the irgc, the Escorts would have worked. We would have been able to, to be just fine with minesweepers and with, with our Navy vessels. Now it's the drones that are the missing factor. That's what makes this.

[Mark]

Yeah. And it's. And two things. There's no way the United States could have known before launching this conflict. One, that Iran had drones and two, that controlling the Strait of Hormuz was important. Oh, no. They knew both those things in advance, but they seem to do. They seem to do nothing about either. It's. Larry, it's not like, oh, my goodness, they have a big drone thing. They hid that from us. We knew they had a lot of drones. Okay, here's a. Here's a. Here's a post from the President a minute ago on Truth Social going back to saying, hey, things may not be perfect, but we've got to beat this evil empire with dangerous weapons. The United States is the largest oil producer in the world by far. So when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money. But of far greater interest and importance to me as president is stopping an evil empire, Iran, from having nuclear weapons and destroying the Middle east and indeed the world. I won't ever let that happen. Thank you for your attention to this matter. So the president's making the argument that this is great for America because now we can sell our own oil for more sleeper cells. Drone attacks in the United States. Cyber attacks. There was apparently an Iran cyber. Iran is right up there with China and Russia as a great user of cyber attacks to make mischief. Here's, here's the headline from NBC News on the cyber attack. Iran appears to have conducted a significant cyber attack against the US Company. A first since the war started. The company Stryker said a cyber attack disrupted its Microsoft environment. I don't know why they're using a Microsoft environment, but that's really up to them. And then on this Caliph alleged California attack. I think this was just a kind of a generic warning about, about a possible cyber attack. This also. Where's that headline? Do we have that? Maybe we don't, but everybody knows. Here it is from Bloomberg Newsom. Aware of potential for Iran drone strike in California. FBI warned that Iran has allegedly considered launching offensive drones against the West Coast. So Larry, this would add two new fronts to the war. If Iran has capability to hit the United States domestically, either with sleeper cells or remotely from wherever they might launch the drones. And if they start going into our banks, what if they broke into the two way platform? They disrupt American life in a very fundamental way. How concerned are you, Larry, about these? I'd say three fronts. Sleeper cells, drones, attacks on the United States and cyber. How concerned are you about those?

[Larry]

I think the sleeper cells and the cyber attacks I think I'm most concerned about only because we've seen that pop up already. We've seen that over the course of the last couple of decades. In fact, it's part of the reason that why we needed to do something against about Iran. I still want more information about this story and what the FBI is seeing and learning about. I haven't read up on that one enough.

[Mark]

Did we ever get to the bottom of the thing in Austin? Did we ever get to fell out of the news?

[Larry]

We never heard. But we do know that, I mean the last report I saw about Austin, that it was just a guy who acted alone and he wasn't actually a coordinated guy.

[Mark]

Melissa, you used to be in charge of hundreds of millions of dollars in homeland security money for New York State. How concerned are do you think governors are about this, the prospect of all this and businesses are about the prospect that Iran could be cyber attacking American businesses.

[Melissa]

So let me tell you a very quick story which is at the very beginning of 2020, before COVID you know, shut down the world and our lives all changed forever. We were notified when I was secretary to Governor Cuomo that there had been a cyber attack successfully on New York State's overall IT system and it was a suspected Iran state sponsored actor. And when I tell you that the briefing that I was receiving during that period of when I said, well what could the practical impacts be? And they're like once they're in the system, they're in the system. That could mean deleting wide swaths of health records. That could mean public publicly pushing out people's tax files. That could mean screwing around with people's criminal records like there is no end. So when I saw that report last night, my heart stopped because it brought me back to that moment. Luckily at that point we were able to bring in the proper IT people, find the issue, get them out of the system. But that was at the very beginning of 2020 and then Covid happened, otherwise it would have been a huge story. So I mean I think that if they are able to successfully engage in a cyber attack in one of our government agencies at a high level. It could have crippling effects on a whole. And disruptive effects on a whole level, different level of people's lives.

[Mark]

And I'll just say again, to tell you why I'm eorish today about this. I'm open to new data, but here's why I'm your ish about this. If the, if the, if the Trump administration is as prepared for the cyber attacks and for the sleeper cells as they were for the dealing with the Strait of Hormuz and the drones were in big trouble, because those could be crippling to America right here at home. You know, one Iranian sleeper cell walk into a mall in Nebraska with a stick of dynamite would ruin the American economy. One, one. Here's the first message now playing out from the Supreme Leader. Is this going to be in English, guys? Do we have simultaneous translation from.

[Larry]

Oh, I can translate from Farsi if you need to.

[Mark]

Khamenei also thanked the brave fighters of the country who stopped by their crushing forces. And also encourage the people. I'm confused by this because that's not his. That's not his voice.

[Larry]

I think this guy is translating what the news. I think it's a written statement and there's a, a woman on Iranian TV reading the statement and our. This guy is translating.

[Mark]

Take it down. Tell us, tell us after it's done. You'll bring us the headlines. The producers of the show. This is only to me gonna make people think he's either dead or crippled. Right?

[Melissa]

Yeah.

[Mark]

I mean, he can't know.

[Larry]

His cardboard cutout looked pretty healthy.

[Mark]

Yeah. All right, let us know what he says when he's done. Israel, Melissa. Israel's kind of, you know, doing their thing. But I am told that there are real disagreements, not surprisingly, between the United States and Israel. Another area of concern, the most central area of conflict is, is concern in Israel. And you don't need to be a Mossad agent or Netanyahu to worry that Donald Trump might just walk away from this thing. And they don't want to end this with the regime in place and Iran still having capability. We haven't gotten to the question of where their nuclear weapons are. And nuclear material is rather. So what, Melissa, if you, if the president assigned you to go see Bibi, what would you say to him?

[Melissa]

I think I would say to him, okay, we're here. Now what? And you guys have to be the frontline, boots on the ground, because American troops cannot be and we will support you in any way that we can. But let's agree on what our actual goals are. Lay them out publicly and execute a plan to achieve those goals and do it within this timeline, or else you guys may have to be on your own, which is where I think Trump probably is. I could see walking away from this.

[Mark]

Right, Larry, to what extent are you concerned about the US Israeli partnership?

[Larry]

I'm not concerned about it. I think that the partnership is working well right now, and it's going to last as long as America is willing to continue politically and militarily along the path that they're going. But when we're ready to go, we're going to go, and Israel's just going to have to deal with that. And I cannot imagine us engaging in this military venture with Israel without everybody being very clear eyed and up front. At the beginning, before one plane, you know, left the Runway, Israel was told, we're in it with you until we're ready to go. And when we declare that we're done, we're done.

[Melissa]

Yeah, Larry, that's like a rational. Like I also thought wouldn't have imagined that we would find ourselves here where we still don't have a clear explanation as to why now, what the goals were, what the end game is. Because the communication issue, which I think underpins all of this, is what got us here to begin with. So if the public communication issue is as bad as it is, how do we not know that the private communication issue, US in Israel, is equal as bad?

[Mark]

Well said. Again, for those of you who think I'm being hysterical, I'm open to new data, but everything I'm saying is factually true. I'm not speculating about anything. And I'm just telling you this is in a bad place right now. The Strait of Hormuz first and foremost. But lots of other things are going on now are not great. Kushner and Witkoff were supposed to go to Israel. The president, but they haven't gone yet, at least as far as we know. The president, there have been reports, talks to Netanyahu regularly. But this is a great partnership, historic partnership, tactically. Execution on the military side, amazing. But the political interests of the United States and Israel are not aligned currently, and they're going to become less aligned as this goes forward. Negotiated settlements, you see on Twitter every day, reports from wispy places that maybe, maybe Witkoff, maybe someone else in the US Government's talking to someone in Iran. And people say, well, how could you make a deal with Iran because who's there to make a deal with? Well, there are people they could talk to. The foreign minister, for one thing. He can be booked on NBC News. Presumably he can talk to Witkoff. But remember, the reason this war began was because the U.S. negotiators determined that the Iranians were not trustworthy, they were not credible interlocutors. Now, are there new interlocutors that are more credible given who Iran just put in charge? Seems impossible. But, Larry, where do you put the diplomatic track to try to open up the strait or to end the conflict? Is there a diplomatic track worth talking about?

[Larry]

I think this is the bigger issue with Israel right now than the threat of America sort of withdrawing its military. I think they're pissed off that, that rci, our folks are talking to the Iranian.

[Mark]

Are you confident? Are you confident there are conversations?

[Larry]

I do, I do. I, I. Yes, yes, I am.

[Mark]

Okay, so.

[Larry]

And I think they're talking to either one of two groups of people. Either a group of people that, that they have confidence in that were not party to the negotiations that were going on, or, or it could very well be that the people that they were negotiating with in Geneva. And I've heard some, some rumblings that during down times, there were conversations off the record where they said, listen, you know, I'm, I'm, I'm pushing the Ayatollah's position here. This is where I am. But if anything happens, you know, make sure you pick up the phone and call me because I'll be able to help you out. You know, that's. Larry, what would, that's the walk in the woods kind of conversations that happened. Understood.

[Mark]

What would a negotiated settlement look like?

[Larry]

I still believe that a negotiated settlement from the American's perspective would involve a complete restruct of their theocracy. I, I cannot believe that we would walk away with an agreement with them, their government.

[Mark]

Understood. Melissa, is that a realistic prospect that, that, that could be negotiated?

[Melissa]

It doesn't seem that way today. I mean, could we get there with, with more pressure, with more targeted strikes? We cripple them more if we find out that maybe if, if, if. But today, where we stand, it doesn't seem like should be the goal.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Larry]

And Melissa, I mean, there are a lot of, first of all, we're joking about where is the sun? They literally did have a cardboard cutout of him for his big announcement. But secondly, and I think, frankly, more importantly is that most of, most observers of Iran, at the last thing the mullahs, the sort of theocrats wanted Is a hereditary succession. It's one of the reasons why that the argument they made against the shah and the monarchy that they had one. Wonder how happy they are with they meaning the Iranian hierarchy for an eggplant. They're looking for a new path.

[Mark]

All right, we're going to talk some non Iran topics lickety split and then get to your questions and comments. So please, if you're on the platform, I want to get in the conversation with Melissa and Larry Razor.

[Larry]

You saying lickety split. You're already out of your er mode. That's a very Tigger thing to say. Lickety split.

[Mark]

See, look at. Yeah.

[Larry]

Smile.

[Mark]

You're. Yeah. First thing is my sources who call me, particularly my senior sources. Is it A, they forget the show's on. B, they don't know I have a 9:00 clock show. Or C, they call because they really want to talk to me, but they feel obligated to call me back. And if they. They call during an answer. Larry. A, B or C

[Larry]

or D, they're just figuring out that they're supposed to change their clocks. Life savings.

[Mark]

All right, you go.

[Larry]

But. But I. But this happens. Time. And it's because they literally forget that I'm on the air.

[Mark]

Yeah. Melissa occasionally does call me during.

[Melissa]

I was gonna say I'm gonna go with a. Because I fall into that category. And I often will call or text Mark and say, what do you think about this? Oh, we're doing your show. Never mind. Talk to you.

[Larry]

But the question is Loomer won't talk to you about.

[Mark]

Good question. During the. I'll call her back. Okay, Zelensky, lots of questions about whether there's going to be. Oh, sorry. I need to polymark one more thing before we leave. 114. Interesting polymarket that's up right now. That I forgot to do, but we need to. Here we go. What's the chance the president announces an end to military operations by the end of this, right before his summit with Xi? 42% chance he announces he's going to walk away by unaccomplished. Melissa, what do you think of that?

[Melissa]

You're dealing with Trump. I think it could be 100%. I think it could be 80%. The question is, and I said this briefly before, I don't think that, like, this is on our terms anymore. We are now in this, and the other side is fighting back. So if we just declare mission accomplished and walk away and we come up with a laundry list of reasons why it was a successful mission, but the mission isn't actually accomplished. I think we all need to brace for the very realistic possibility of counter strikes in some way, whether it be sleeper cells or cyberattacks.

[Mark]

Well said, Larry. I've just yes or no. Will the, will this conflict be over by the end of the month?

[Larry]

Over. No, no. But downshifted, ramped down? Yes.

[Mark]

Got it. Okay. Zelensky administration officials continue to be very bullish on the prospect of a deal. They continue to say that there's, there's solid things in place. There were meetings with the Russians, I read in, in Miami yesterday. Here is Zelensky, though, talking to Politico being extraordinarily downbeat, I would say some might say Eeyore ish, about the prospects of a deal and concerned that there's the public pressure and private pressure continues to be on him and not Putin. 122, please. We need negotiations. We support them. Can I believe in or hope? It's not about hoping. It's not about trusting to Putin. We don't trust trust Russia. But I think and I trust that Americans really want to finish with this war. I hope that they will help us, but we need more pressure on Russia, not on me. Melissa, is he being realistic about about more pressure on Russia from the United States, or is he should he recognize the handwriting is on the wall and he's just going to have to give in or he's gonna have to go without the United States?

[Melissa]

I think that he's right that the United States generally supports him and his position. I think the problem for him is now we're distracted. So it's no longer, you know, front burner kind of stuff. It's like third tier. And so I worry for him that his expectations need to be readjusted because of that.

[Larry]

Yeah. He has two other problems, too. The first is that the rising oil prices helps fund Putin's war effort. And one of the strangleholds that potentially was harming Russia was the fact that oil was a lot more affordable, a lot cheaper. That hurts him. Number two, springtime is coming. And that means that the war effort can get a lot hotter there in every possible way.

[Mark]

All right, we'll do these last three real quick short answers. John Thune is still working at some sort of strategy to consider the Save America act, but with no expectation that it's going to pass. And there's just no didn't seem to be any prospect of turning the the regular four of Tillis and Murkowski and Collins and McConnell. Here's the headline from Axios thunize marathon sessions to ease MAGA anger over SAVE Act Larry if all if thune execute what he seems to be doing which is having a merit spending time on Senate time on it to get nothing done will that soothe MAGA anger and Trump anger or will they just be more angry at him that he didn't deliver?

[Larry]

It might help. I think it might be a good political thing to do because then you've got video of Democrats standing in the well of Senate stopping all legislation because they want to make sure that non citizens can vote in this country. But ultimately I think we've reached the point especially after John Cornyn's remarkable op ed yesterday that anything short of removing the filibuster and passing will not satiate the frustrations that MAGA has.

[Mark]

Melissa are Democrats is this an opportunity for Democrats because they will in effect be opposing super popular so how should how should and how well Democrats approach the floor action?

[Melissa]

I think the Democrats Republicans each there and let them you know then didn't on their conference and shut up about it because I actually think is grounded in good policy. I think the save act has in a number of ways trying to explain an 8020 issue as to why it's bad you're losing. So I think just let the other side defeat itself.

[Larry]

Well but Melissa if it does go to America on Florida the bus of the Democrats start so they're going to have to defend their their support of the 20 side of that 8020 friends

[Melissa]

just waste your time which not American public is going to be paying attention to on all the reasons why this would be inconvenient for the American public to vote and how they're trying disenfranchise not just African Americans and women but everyone who own passports or don't have a real ID or would have to go out their way and how much money it would cost and waste time that way. But ultimately the Republicans control the Senate, the Republicans control the House so if it doesn't pass they can always say

[Mark]

it was the Republicans in a phrase. How much did Cornyn help his chances of getting the Trump endorsement with his New York Post op ed Melissa A lot? A little none I think.

[Melissa]

I think a little.

[Mark]

A little Larry.

[Larry]

A very little very little. The big because Mark the biggest risk here based on the last poll is that imagine this Trump endorses Cornyn and Paxton still wins. Yeah well I think that's the nightmare.

[Mark]

My guess is they wouldn't endorse he wouldn't do the endorsement without an agreement that Paxton will get Out. I don't, I don't think, I don't. I think for the very reason you just said, it's going to have to be a, what we call a Texas two step, Larry.

[Larry]

Is that what they call it?

[Mark]

That's what they call it. All right, New book coming. Larry's building is fall around his summer around it. Rather, Jill Biden find time away from treating patients to write her book. A lot of will be braced for more, you know, Donald Trump. Who are the two people about whom the former first lady will write most negatively in her book? Larry? Who are the two people she'll write most negatively about in her book?

[Larry]

Kamala and Harris.

[Mark]

Kamala and Harris. You think she'll go there? You think she'll go.

[Larry]

Maybe, maybe Barack Obama, actually.

[Melissa]

Okay, I was going to say maybe George Clooney.

[Larry]

Barack Obama maybe not involved in terms of the attention.

[Mark]

What about, what about Nancy Pelosi?

[Melissa]

And Nancy Pelosi?

[Larry]

Oh my gosh, there's so many choices. I'm not going to read the book, but I'm going to do what everybody's going to do, which is go to the index, look for those names. Go to that page.

[Melissa]

You're not even going to do that. You're just going to read the coverage of.

[Mark]

What about, what about member of the media? Won't she attack members of the media?

[Melissa]

I, I don't know why they covered for them for a really, I feel like she has.

[Larry]

What about, what about Jake Tapper?

[Mark]

Maybe Jake. What about Ron Klain? Would she attack Ron Klain?

[Larry]

Oh, I, I forgot about that testimony. Yeah.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Larry]

So let's see now we've, that doesn't sell books, though.

[Mark]

Well, we've listed a lot of people. My question is how confident are you that she'll like people or will she just. Except for Trump. Yeah. Oh, yeah. There'll be score settling. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Okay. Finally you're gonna sell. Finally.

[Melissa]

Melissa, I was gonna say why else would take this. Trump?

[Larry]

The, the evil Republicans in Congress.

[Mark]

Yeah, that'll be really. What about the people who prosecuted her son?

[Melissa]

Yeah, but it's an easier boogeyman to just say Trump.

[Mark]

Okay.

[Larry]

They couldn't let my poor son, who was recovering addict just sort of get into the.

[Mark]

I'm super interested in this book. I'm on record. If the publisher's watching. I would love to, I would love to have Dr. Jill on to talk to the two way community.

[Larry]

By the way, we joke about Dr. Jill, but did you notice on the book cover there's no doctor?

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Larry]

It's just Joe Biden. It's the one time she's allowed to be called just plain old Jill.

[Mark]

Yeah, all right, I'm looking forward to that. All right, quick word from a sponsor then to your questions. Please raise your hand if you'd like to be in on the conversation. If you've never raised your hand, regardless of your point of view on anything, please be part of the two way community and conversation like no other. Right now. If you want some free money. One of our sponsors giving out free money. It's the free Upside app. Go to your phone and download it now. When you make purchases as you would normally do at your gas station, your restaurants, or your supermarket, your grocery store, you get free cash back. It does not interfere in any way with the other benefits you get from using your credit card card. It's just free money. It's not a. It's cash back on purchases. The app tells you what places in your businesses in your area are participating. It's very easy to use. You just download it and get right to it. There's over a hundred thousand participating locations. It's cash back, as I said, no credits, no points that expire. It's money that transfers directly into your bank account. Just pay with your card like normal. And once you're. Once you've registered in the app and you get three times more cash back with Upside than with loyalty programs or credit cards alone. They give out $100 million in cash a week to their users and they've given out over a billion dollars since they started out. And right now, couldn't be more timely. You save 25 cents a gallon of gas on your first flop if you start using the free Upside app promo code. So download it today, use the promo code, Mark, get 25 cents back and have at it, ladies and gentlemen. All right, here we go.

[Matt Ebert]

I started with one shop. No college degree, no big investors. It was just a willingness to work. Over time, that one shop turned into a multi billion dollar business called Crash Champions. All the lessons I learned along the way came from the grind. And that's what my show Pod Crash is all about. We have real conversations with people who've built things the hard way. We talk to founders, athletes and blue collar leaders who kept going when things got tough. You'll hear stories of grit, leadership and growth. Plus real world lessons you can take back to your team and your life tomorrow.

[Larry]

When you get momentum, you step on the gas.

[Mark]

That's how you get separation from everybody else. I was at Harvard Law School. I was blah, blah, blah. I looked up. Let me tell you something, there's kids

[Caller/Listener]

in my neighborhood putting in Sheetrock that are smarter than you.

[Mark]

AI is going to disrupt a lot of stuff.

[Caller/Listener]

It is not never going to disrupt

[Mark]

physical blue collar trade skill. And the guy just looked at me and he said it's bloody impossible. So I asked him this question. I said it's impossible.

[Matt Ebert]

Unless that's Podcast with me, Matt ebert, watch on YouTube and listen wherever you get your podcasts.

[Mark]

Here we go. Time for your questions, your comments, your concerns. Just raise your hand and all of a sudden you're part of the program. Start with Mr. Jones. Mr. Jones, Mr. Jones, Chris Jones, thank you for being part of Two Way. Welcome in. Tell everybody who doesn't know where you are and what's on your mind for

[Chris Jones]

Melissa hey guys, thanks for calling on me calling you from Davidson, North Carolina. And you always want to know how many times I voted for or against Trump in the general. Three times. So listening to you four or three times again? Three times. Four. Thank you for clarifying. Melissa. Three times four. Thanks for clarifying. But I'm having a hard time this morning listening to all the speculation of how poorly things are going to go. When we look at the capacities and capabilities of the militaries that are in competition and we think about the coalitions that are forming and we think about the incentives that exist across political spectrum. I have a really hard time seeing how this thing is going to go south. Now. I can, it's complicated and difficult but I'm just not persuaded this morning that we really need to be hand wringing as much as you guys are. And I wonder if you can give us some more information that might be more persuasive about why this could go so south so badly for Americans. The planning argument seems less than persuasive relative to the, the capabilities that I mentioned earlier. Whether it's the military or its other government agencies that would be responsible for the cyber security. I, I get one might got one might have gotten through. I get there may have been some attacks on tankers here or there, but in the long run over a 36 hour period to be thinking this thing is going to go south 14 days in or whatever, it just doesn't seem, it just doesn't seem persuasive. So that's my challenge. I'm wondering if you guys can give

[Mark]

us all some more. Sure, I'll read you my whole list in a moment. Melissa.

[Melissa]

No, I think, look, I though what's coming out of the white House in terms of their shifting messaging and how little we know, again, about what the initial goals were, about what the timeline is, about what the plan is going in without any real allies with military force other than Israel, what's going on in the Strait right now and what it's doing to oil features and sort of the herky jerky nature of it, the fact that we can't, because of the drone capability, assist tankers going through the Strait, which means right now it's a chokehold for all of those reasons. And because, frankly, this goes back to what I said before. The communication underpinning this entire mission has been so poor from start to finish in both laying the groundwork for why we were going in and what's going on on the ground. It's rattling people. And it's rattling people because it's giving the impression that, that they don't know what they're doing, or we are sort of lurching back and forth depending on the whims of the moment and reacting instead of being proactive. And so for those reasons, I am personally concerned about where this is going to go. And I don't know if you were watching a few weeks ago when this all started. I'm one of the Democrats who was out saying, I support the mission. I think we need to take out the Ayatollah. I think that a nuclear Iran can't exist for us to feel safe. And, and I want this to go well. But I find a lot of this very troubling. It could be solved in part, at least with better communication, consistently from the president himself, from the White House, you know, start to make us all feel better and tell us we have a plan and what the exit strategy is. But that's just not happening right now.

[Mark]

Before, Larry, before you weigh in, Larry, just two pieces of news about the new Ayatollah. First of all, he seems to have just joined Twitter. He's already got 13,000 followers. We think it's an authentic account. And here's what CNBC says about the remarks he made. Straight up or written statement read by an anchor. Straight of Hormuz must remain closed as, quote, a tool to pressure the enemy. Iran's supreme leader said in his first public comments. He also said military bases in the Middle east should close immediately and, quote, those bases will be attached act. Larry.

[Larry]

Chris, I agree with you. I hope you picked that up from my comments earlier. Although if the focus is the Strait of Hormuz, it is a challenge for the US Right now militarily and I have a plan. I think that plan unfold and it might not completely be working quite yet. If so, that is the only thing that hasn't worked yet in this military effort. I think it's been incredibly successful and I think it's very early on in these days. And I would just push back a little bit with Melissa in terms of the, the ramp up to this engagement. You know, unlike the Iraq war under W. Bush or the first Gulf War under George Herbert Walker Bush, there's no big public for rattling to build an international coalition, make the case to the UN Ramp up all of this military. We moved our Navy vessels in place and we were ready to strike at a moment's notice. We didn't try to create the big cause for this because a surprise attack. Trump administration is guilty of its naivete of thinking that all of those power right now in the Senate and the House or even political commentators in the media who all celebrated and supported the idea of some kind of strike under previous administrations, I think they probably thought they'd be in favor of this and they wouldn't immediately turn on Trump and turn on this basically because they opposed Trump and they saw a political benefit in opposing Trump. That's, that's MAGA perspective on this.

[Mark]

Chris. Chris, I think mission is and, and I think the president's doing this for the exact reasons he says and he's been talking about this for decades. So I'm not questioning his motives. I don't think it's about Epstein. I don't think it's because he's power hungry. But I will show you this. This is not Morning Joe. This is not the CNN morning that happens to be called now. This is Fox and Friends from this morning. Now, we called out this negative stuff, but this is how Fox and Friends covered the conflict this morning. This is 103, please.

[Larry]

All right, buckle up.

[Chris Jones]

Iran launching new attacks on ships in

[Larry]

the Strait of Hormuz.

[Matt Ebert]

This as oil prices are surging.

[Mark]

You got oil prices, they're going up.

[Narrator/News Reader]

Hezbollah overnight got more directly involved in this war. More than 100 rockets were fired over the border into northern Israel in a period of less than an hour. Number of drones launched. There were some reports of injuries on the ground in northern Israel. Tankers on fire overnight just off the coast of Iraq. Coordinated attacks by Iran's small navy. We saw a significant attack by an Iranian drone yesterday that targeted fuel storage facilities.

[Mark]

Hezbollah would launch 100 rockets in.

[Narrator/News Reader]

These rockets were launched very close to the Israel Lebanon border. These countries are coming under significant Attack. They still have drones and shorter range missiles positioned in western Iran that allowed them to target these countries.

[Melissa]

But look at that. Right now the price of a barrel is about $97. Now it's back up to almost $100.

[Mark]

That's some of the things on my list, Chris, but it's not all of them. But I'll just say American credibility is on the line now. And as Newt Gingrich said, the chances of success, both credibility success, depend on fully reopening the strait. Okay? And fully reopening the strait is going to be an enormous challenge. All Iran has to do is hit one of a hundred and they win. Because you'll never get people to go through as long as they're hitting one and with drones and subs and firing from the, from the shore. So I'm not declaring it over. I'm not questioning the President's motives. I'm just telling you there are a lot of reasons to be skeptical that this is going to be as successful as the President has said. And the failure to win public opinion, the failure to win a Democratic senator not named Fetterman the Federator, to get the press to be open minded, all of that doesn't matter when things are going great. But things are not going great right now. Just on horror, Moose, you can discount everything else. You can say I won cyber attack. You could say, oh they didn't. There are no drones in la. It doesn't matter if there's no one to negotiate with. You can say it doesn't matter that there's no regime change in the offing. You can say all, you can discount every one of those things tor moves and the prospect of $200 a gallon a barrel oil. Just that. And what every expert, including the administration, will tell you of how difficult that's going to be. So accept the premise at Newt Gingrich and others this has to be done. Zero sum has to be done. Accept the premise that it's that every expert I've heard and talked to says, including the administration, it's going to be really difficult to do just those two things. I don't know how you couldn't be somewhat cautioned, somewhat braced, somewhat concerned about an effort which now involves not just the original goals of trying to deal with Iran, nuclear missile, terror, naval capacities. But now American prestige is on the line. Now the United States is in danger of losing a zero sum conflict over control of the strait to the fifth largest army in the world. But ladies and gentlemen, not the United States of America. I Don't know, Chris, how that couldn't concern you, no matter how supportive you are. Donald Trump.

[Chris Jones]

Yeah. So I can be persuaded that there are risks and threats that may or may not have been clearly seen at the outset. I think what has me pausing at the level of concern being expressed is that the capabilities and the again, incentives that you've outlined seem to align much more closely with an optimistic view of bringing the full bear of our resources to the situation in a way that we may not yet have seen or understand. Maybe that that seemed perfectly, seemed perfectly right from a Trump perspective.

[Mark]

Maybe, maybe. And the proof will be in the pudding if the Straits open in two weeks. Proof will be in the pudding. But let's, let's, let's see if they can do it. My sources are skeptical.

[Chris Jones]

Well, God, God bless our troops, God bless people over there who are doing that work. And I have nothing but belief, whether evidence or otherwise that we should be cautious. I have nothing but belief that they will get the job done.

[Mark]

Thank you for that, Chris. Amen. That. Thank you. Appreciate it.

[Larry]

Can I just also quickly add, Brian Kilmeade has got to get his Trump derangement. Check the man. The guy's out of control.

[Mark]

That is. Yes. Okay. It's a joke. All right, Kenneth, welcome in. Thank you for being on two way unmute. Tell folks where you are and what's on your mind. For Melissa, I'd like to throw little

[Larry]

funny lines in there. Okay.

[Caller/Listener]

I'm in Indiana.

[Mark]

Yes, sir.

[Caller/Listener]

And I kind of, I kind of am in line with Chris. Part of my issue as a three time Trump supporter is that so much of the political attacks that we seem to be seeing are to me they feel so disingenuous because this task that we're undertaking is something that Democrats over the last 30 years would have been on board with at a very high level. And so to me it feels like part of the reason why there is such a, an argument against it isn't because of the task itself, but just because of the divisive nature of our political culture.

[Mark]

Kenneth, there's no doubt that's part of it. No doubt.

[Melissa]

But, but there's one thing I will say respectfully and again as a Democrat who at the outside of this was saying this is absolutely the right thing to do and I still support the underlying goals. I think that you've got Democrats unified in opposition, but you've got Republicans like not, they are not quite there. You know, there is a percentage of Republicans, I think in the last poll was something like 20% of Republicans, 15% of Republicans that don't support it, whereas it's like 95, 5 Democrats. It's like 80, 20 Republicans or 85, 15 Republicans. And then the independents are 70, 30 against or 65, 35 against. And so, you know, I keep my eye on that independent swing line. And when you don't have all of the Republicans unified, you've got to ask yourself why? And I don't want to be a broken record, but I think he could have headed a lot of this off by communicating more forcefully on the why we're doing this now and what the goals were. He could have done at the State of the Union, could have done a presidential address from the Oval Office. He could have done a lot of different things. And it almost felt like he has an aversion to having to explain himself. And I think that that's sort of the difference between why the American public are compliment is one time when people are willing to put partisanship aside. And I see Larry laughing at me, but I don't think it's just Trump derangement syndrome. I think, I think that there even an attempt to forcefully make the case and get people bought in.

[Larry]

Forgive Melissa. I was laughing at Kenneth's daughter who put her face all the way up into the camera there and was not. Don't believe it wasn't you, Melissa, or what you were saying. But if I could, I think Kenneth, Kenneth, when you talk about the polls, Melissa, and who's for. I think Kenneth is talking about the leadership. I think he's talking about like a Chuck Schumer and, and, and, and leaders in the party who have, if you

[Melissa]

remember, right after they, they briefed the Gang of Eight before it all started, Schumer came out and said what I just heard in that room is, is deadly serious. And I think the president needs to be talking to the American public about this. So he out of the gate, it appeared was in support of doing something in the importance of this and urged the President to take the American public and the president didn't.

[Caller/Listener]

The only thing I have to add on that, and I agree to an extent, there may have been, there may have been able to be better messaging. But what if the plan was for between the United States and Israel to covertly set the stage for people in Iran to. Because I've seen some reports about some groups being armed and, you know, things like that. And if the president comes out and says that like this is what we're doing right now, they'll go underground.

[Larry]

Yeah.

[Caller/Listener]

That like that kind of kill.

[Melissa]

So I'm not suggesting that we should have said we're going to be here on this day and this is how it's going to work. But I think making the case as to why Iran is a poses the threat it has since 1979 which to your point part people on both sides of the aisle can agree on and why in this moment people need to be aware of the threat and where it could go and why it's important that we engage our military and our allies on this. Not suggesting we should say and we're going to be there Saturday and we're going to shoot out this room with 40 people in it. You know, not giving away the military secrets but getting people but in or in the immediate aftermath of taking them out, doing an Oval Office address, very soberly laying out the reasons for why did what we did and what it's going to look like and preparing people and saying look, gas prices spike temporarily in the short term, but here's why it matters in the long term we are going to bring our allies. Everybody should be this is in the best interest of the American people, whether Republican or independent for generations have done like that. They continue not to and also playing a little bit of games on the side which allows people to continue their were Americans the blowing up of that school is it possible the president of the United walked that rope line didn't know anything about it. You know we said months ago we the nuclear capability it turns out and so I think the in the messaging allows the skepticism you know to whoever said who said it the Epstein file mark of think this has anything to do with the Epstein males. The void allows conspiracy theories to fill that air where you're not getting forceful messaging.

[Caller/Listener]

Can I add one more thing before I go?

[Mark]

Yes sir.

[Caller/Listener]

I I agree. I think the messaging could be better. The I think Trump is very aware of what is politically expedient and what is bad politically. I think he realizes that this task was not politically popular and chose to do it regardless. And I think he even acknowledged that And I think there is something to be said about doing what you feel is right, even though you know it's not going to be in his political best interest.

[Mark]

Kenneth, I couldn't agree more and I wish they'd had a better plan for dealing with the the street. Kenneth, thank you. Grateful to you. Thank you for coming on. I'm going to jump over to SiriusXM again, rolling into the second hour of the morning meeting if you want to get in. Wow, that was fast. It did. Right. If you want to get in on the conversation there, call me at the bottom of the hour. 833-446-3496. And then I'll be doing an interview with Rand Paul for Next up. My my monologue will be about what I've been talking about. I'll show, but I didn't unspool the whole thing here. So next up, my reported monologue on why people need to be a bit concerned about how this conflict is going. And then my interview with Rand Paul who speaks for tens of millions on the issue of the war and so many other things. And with that, I thank Melissa and I turn it over to Larry to tell you what else is coming up on two Way. And I'll see Larry tomorrow. Not Melissa, Kevin will be here. But thank you both and thank you all. And I'll see you both on SiriusXM and on next up and then at 5 o'. Clock.

[Larry]

Thanks, Mark.

[Melissa]

Bye, Larry.

[Larry]

Appreciate it. Thanks, Melissa. That was fun and lively and critically important by the way too. And again, just to reflect the two way ethos, these are the conversations that everyone in America should be having and in the way that we're having it, hopefully we believe what we believe. We have our priors. We want instinctively to stick with the political perspective that we've always held, yet at the same time have to recognize that we're engaged in a military conflict. We've got men and women in uniform who are in harm's way. And yes, it very well may escalate and continue to be a dangerous thing that we should all be sober about 100%.

[Melissa]

Hope to be on with you again soon.

[Larry]

Same here. Thanks. By the way, let's continue to give you all of the upcoming. You just heard Mark tell you that. Next up with Rand Paul, a very intriguing and important Voice in Washington, D.C. on domestic and foreign affairs. He'll be guest on Next up. Coming up then, the group chat today is live at 4pm Image of Morris, Nina Turner, Rabbi Suave joined by a guest co host, political commentator Madeline Somerville. They'll discuss the day's hottest topics, of course, as they do and then two way tonight. Tonight is live at 5pm Former Louisiana Congressman Garrett Graves. And then also don't forget the Moynihan Report live tonight at 7pm that is a full, full day of two way content. And as Mark just mentioned, we'll be back tomorrow on the morning meeting. It'll be me, it'll be Kevin, it'll be Mark, it'll be all of you and all of your friends that you tell to come join us because Friday is always the fun day. We're going to have our winners of the week. We're going to have our losers of the week and what we're watching. So don't forget to watch the morning meeting and don't forget the after show with professor kenny today at 11pm now, and it's new time. Thanks everybody for watching and please do pray for our troops and for our leaders.