The Morning Meeting – January 5, 2026

Theme: Tim Walz Ends Re-Election Bid Amid Minnesota Somali Fraud Scandal; U.S. Operations in Venezuela and Their Political Fallout

Episode Overview

Today's episode of "The Morning Meeting" on 2WAY, hosted by Mark Halperin, dived into two major breaking stories: Minnesota Governor Tim Walz's decision not to seek reelection following a mounting Somali fraud scandal and the continuing aftermath of recent bold U.S. moves in Venezuela, including the removal of Nicolás Maduro. The panel—Mark, Yemeni, Larry, and guest analyst Eli Lake—offered insider perspectives on domestic political impacts, U.S. foreign policy under President Trump, the shifting mood in Congress, and broader implications for America's standing in the world.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Daybook Rundown and News Set-Up (03:20–06:00)

• The President's only schedule item is a closed policy meeting—speculated to relate to Venezuela.
• Significant evening briefing planned for congressional leaders on national security, with a bipartisan cast from the administration.
• Notably, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz scheduled a noon press conference, rumored to be an announcement about not seeking a third term in the wake of nonprofit funding scandal—later confirmed live during the show.

2. Venezuela: “Will Trump ‘Run’ Venezuela?” (06:00–26:28)

Venezuela After Maduro

• Yemeni jokes, “The country becomes a utopia. That’s— you’re predicting utopia.” (06:20)
• Larry: Offers a pragmatic take, arguing that Venezuela has the institutions for self-government in a way Iraq and Afghanistan did not, emphasizing, “It’s going to be less of a lift than people are thinking when they compare this to Iraq.” (06:33)

Nation-Building, Legacies, and Transition Risks

• Eli Lake (Guest, Journalist):
  • Reminds listeners the Iraq/Venezuela comparison is imperfect: “I don’t think that Saddam Hussein was popular in 2003 with the Iraqi people... For the most part, people hated Saddam and his sons.” (08:08)
  • On post-Maduro Venezuela: “There will be, I think, a sort of lustration process to use a word from post-Soviet dominated Eastern Europe, or a Truth and Reconciliation Commission... There can be deals that are cut so you avoid bloodshed.” (09:27)
  • On U.S. policy: “Even though I would've liked to have seen Trump endorse Machado's party... I understand why they're not taking that approach—precisely because they don't want to hollow out this wicked regime and then have chaos.” (09:55)
• CIA perspective cited: Focus is on stability and dealing with “current government” pragmatically, not rushing in exiles or opposition leaders (Rick de la Torre on CNN, paraphrased at 12:09).

Trump, the CIA, and MAGA

• Sudden shift in Trump’s tone towards intelligence agencies:
  • Eli Lake: “Trump praising to the heavens the skills of the CIA and the national security state for pulling off this incredible operation is really telling... Trump is much more in command of the government in his second term.” (15:01)
  • Challenges and potential fractures within the MAGA base, known for “deep state” suspicions, now that Trump lauds the CIA.

Congressional & Domestic Political Fault Lines

• Yemeni: Highlights the Cuban-American congressional divide and enduring support for Machado. (16:23)
• Host (Mark): Points out U.S. comfort with Venezuelan military, meaning “American troops don’t have to go in.” (17:49)
• Larry: Notes that Maduro’s own military abandoned him; Cuban military was his main protection.
• Eli: Invokes the “anti-imperialist” rhetoric used by some Democrats, countering that China and Russia have already exploited Venezuela. (19:22)

3. Minnesota: Tim Walz Not Seeking Re-Election (21:21–23:57)

• Confirmed live: Tim Walz will not run, fallout from the fraud scandal.
• Yemeni: Amy Klobuchar could run, is well-liked, and “has for the most part stayed clear of this entire fraud story.” (21:54)
• Larry: Wonders if state-wide DFL (Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party) “rot” means a strong Republican could compete, despite recent history. (23:08)
• Mark jokes about retirement statements always assuming the candidate could still have won.

4. Congressional Briefings and Party Divisions over Venezuela (23:57–29:38)

• Larry & Yemeni: Expect Democrats to complain about not being briefed and bypassing congressional process. (24:20)
• Yemeni: Perspective from former staffer for Sen. Mark Warner—many Democrats focusing less on process this time, more on “what it looks like moving forward.” (24:42)
• Mark & Yemeni: Highlight Democratic struggles to find a coherent response—caught between opposing “nation-building,” process complaints, and focusing on affordability for voters.
  • Schumer (clip): “Whenever our country has gotten involved in this kind of regime change and nation-building, American families pay the price in blood and treasure..." (27:44)
• Larry: Predicts Democrats will oppose Trump purely out of habit, even when agreeing on substance. (24:20, 30:43)

5. Domestic Coverage and Broader News Cycle (31:37–32:57)

• Predicted Venezuela story will dominate through midweek, with possible challenges from ACA reauthorization, Iran, and controversial Mayor Mandami policies.

6. Iran, Protest Movements, and Regime Change (33:19–34:59)

• U.S. and Israel signaling further strikes; debate over the chances for organic regime change.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Eli Lake (on U.S. policy in Venezuela):

  “Even though I would have liked to have seen Trump endorse Maria Machado’s party … I understand why they’re not taking that approach—precisely because they don’t want to hollow out this wicked regime and then have chaos.” (09:55)

• On Trump’s transformation:

  “Trump is much more in command of the government in his second term than he was in his first term.” (15:01)

• Larry, on the MAGA base and oil:

  “He was unabashed in saying, ‘you’re damn right we did this for oil. It’s our oil.’” (37:09)

• Yemeni, on the Walz scandal:

  “Tim Walz let a story and a narrative get out way, way, way in front of him. And instead of just coming out and saying ‘fraud is fraud’... he and his office didn’t take seriously how much the nation would latch onto this story.” (21:54)

• Haley (caller), on being politically homeless:

  “If you are asking these questions, you are pro-Maduro, and if you are not asking these questions, you are a neocon who loves war. … I feel like, can we get to a middle ground?” (48:46)

• Mark (on Trump’s foreign policy style):

  “You shake up the board—like you do the Middle East peace deal, you take out Maduro—and then you say, ‘well, okay, Cuba’s been dependent on Venezuelan patronage for survival, so now they don’t have that anymore. Maybe I’m the guy who liberates Cuba without firing a shot.’” (54:13)

Important Timestamps

• 03:20–06:00: Daybook rundown, news topics set up
• 06:00–19:22: Deep dive—Venezuela, Maduro ouster, risks, and next steps
• 21:21–23:57: Tim Walz reelection bid ends; implications in Minnesota
• 24:20–29:38: Congressional debriefs; Democratic “process” complaints; Schumer’s soundbite (27:44)
• 31:37–34:59: Other stories: ACA, Iran protests, broader news cycle
• 48:46–49:22: Call-in from Haley reflecting independent/centrist unease
• 54:13: Mark’s summation of Trump’s “shake the board” foreign policy approach
• 57:28: Pollster call-in regarding troubling Trump approval numbers for swing states; discussion of broader Democratic malaise

Audience Questions and Call-Ins (42:34–54:13)

• Professor Kennedy: Wants concrete Democratic policies on affordability, not just slogans.
• Yemeni: Touts AI regulation and boosting wages as current Dem focus areas; acknowledges policy is vague.
• Larry: Predicts MAGA excitement for Venezuelan oil and energy strategy.
• Haley (Independent listener, 48:46): Expresses frustration with binary debate framing; wants a “middle ground” on Venezuela and skepticism on Trump's “how” not “why.”

Final Thoughts & Takeaways

• Foreign Policy: Both enthusiasm and anxiety among panelists and callers about the speed and boldness of Trump’s Venezuela intervention. Differentiates from Iraq/Afghanistan, but concerns linger about “nation-building” and blowback.
• Domestic Politics: Tim Walz’s fall and Klobuchar’s potential candidacy signal deep implications for Minnesota’s political landscape; Democrats everywhere face branding and leadership crises.
• Partisan Dynamics: Democrats appear muddled on Venezuela; MAGA may embrace intervention if it delivers oil and avoids American boots on the ground.
• Public Mood: Polls suggest “real life” American optimism not reflected in politics, with widespread dissatisfaction with both parties’ brands and narratives.

Notable Closing

• Panelists anticipate the Venezuela story will shape the news cycle for at least another week, but warn of looming issues in healthcare, Iran, and the 2026 midterms.
• The episode wraps on a lighter note with congratulations to Megan and Ben on the birth of their baby, and speculation about who might deliver the Democratic response to the State of the Union.

For a firsthand look at the twists in both U.S. domestic and foreign affairs, and how they intertwine in the 2026 landscape, this episode is essential listening.