Top U.S. General Says Iran's Provocations "Below the Threshold" of Restarting Airstrikes

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Morning Meeting

Episode: Top U.S. General Says Iran's Provocations "Below the Threshold" of Restarting Airstrikes
Date: May 5, 2026
Host: Mark McLaughlin (2WAY)
Co-hosts: Melissa DeRosa, Eric Erickson
Main Theme:
A forward-looking discussion on U.S. foreign policy (Iran and Russia), political maneuvering in D.C., A.I. regulation, and the evolving roles of media, with a special focus on escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and shifting political dynamics at home and abroad.

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Episode Overview

This special season finale of "The Morning Meeting" explores breaking global developments, focusing on Iran’s incremental provocations against U.S. interests, the strategic stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz, and what it means for U.S. foreign policy and the domestic political landscape. The episode also delves into Russia-Ukraine updates, AI policy battles, and the tone of U.S. politics heading into a pivotal period. Host Mark McLaughlin guides a lively, sometimes provocative, roundtable with co-hosts Melissa DeRosa and Eric Erickson, fielding timely questions from listeners across North America.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S.-Iran Escalation and the New "Mini War" Doctrine

Timecode: 07:57 – 16:34

• The Situation: U.S. military has created a "powerful red, white and blue dome" over the Strait of Hormuz, imposing a blockade that’s been tested but not yet truly challenged by Iran ([07:57]).
  • Pete Hegseth (DoD): “...hundreds of fighter jets, helicopters, drones and surveillance aircraft, providing 24.7 overwatch for peaceful commercial vessels. Except Iran’s, of course...our ironclad blockade remains in full effect as well..." ([07:57])
• Iran’s Response: Social media rhetoric from Iranian officials alternates between bluster and defensiveness; no major escalation since striking a UAE oil export facility ([08:36]).
• U.S. Policy Dilemma: Professor Robert Pape’s analysis is cited: The U.S. is gambling that Iran won’t attack under American protection – “If it fails even once, Washington must escalate or accept humiliation” ([09:57]).
• Panel Analysis:
  • Melissa DeRosa: “The President would much rather use diplomacy...gas prices continue to rise...he would much rather see a resolution here without having to ratchet it up” ([10:33]).
  • Eric Erickson: “I actually was in the camp that thought, surely there’s a strategy here...now that we've entered, we've got to do more than what we’ve done...if we're not gonna aggressively respond...these alliances and strengths of the Middle East begin to unravel” ([11:53]).
  • Both agree that there’s increasing risk in not following through on threats: “We’ve now made so many threats...they broke the ceasefire, that’s it...it just seems like more running in place.” – Melissa ([14:07]).

Memorable Quote:

“If Trump wins the bet, the United States stabilizes the corridor. If it fails even once, Washington must escalate or accept humiliation in full view of the world.”
— Prof. Robert Pape, quoted by Mark McLaughlin ([09:57])

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2. Prospects for the U.S.-China Summit Amidst Global Tensions

Timecode: 14:58 – 17:30

• Chinese Role Ambiguous: Ongoing involvement in Iran peace processes and back-channel support; new sanctions imposed by the U.S. as tensions rise.
• Summit Forecast:
  • Doubts over whether summit will proceed if tensions escalate:
    • Mark: “Becoming skeptical that the China summit’s going to happen...he can’t go if the war is going on or if the war might go on” ([14:58]).
  • If it proceeds, it will be tense, with China playing a dual role—mediator and strategic competitor.
  • Eric: “The global relationship between the US and China right now...this is not a good setup for a diplomatic relationship...10 days is a long time.” ([16:37])
  • Melissa: “China also just directed companies not to abide by the sanctions...” ([17:22])

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3. Russia-Ukraine: U.S. Policy and Shifting Sentiments

Timecode: 20:11 – 26:32

• Trump’s Changing Tune: Surprisingly positive comments about Zelensky in a recent interview:
  • Mark (summarizing Trump): “I like Zelensky, but he’s a cunning guy...They’re better than anyone in Europe in this fight.” ([20:11])
• Ukrainian Momentum:
  • Ukraine has ramped up attacks across Russia’s borders, causing genuine concern in Moscow.
  • Eric Erickson: “A month ago, people were thinking they [Ukraine] were going to lose, and now they’re recapturing territory and bombing parts of Russia that no one thought they could reach.” ([22:10])
• European Security Realignment:
  • Richard Haass (via clip): “We have gone...from being the center of most relationships...China is a beneficiary. All these other countries are now scrambling to fill the void. This is the post-America [moment].” ([24:18])
  • Melissa DeRosa: Disagrees—U.S. is still essential, but operating as a “renegade”; NATO’s weakness is exposed ([25:13]).
  • Eric Erickson: “I would laugh at [Haass]...U.S. foreign policy left and right need to update their theses.” ([26:19])

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4. AI Regulation: Interference or Imperative?

Timecode: 26:32 – 32:46

• Policy Debate:
  • The White House is considering pre-release vetting of AI models to preempt disaster scenarios ([26:32]).
  • Eric Erickson: “I also think that this is in large part being put up by the AI giants. They want this, if only for some level of liability protection in a litigious society” ([28:17]).
  • Melissa DeRosa (key difference from Eric): “I think...what’s being developed in AI is very exciting...but it’s really scary...I think we’re behind, frankly, in doing some of this regulating and I think it’s actually government’s responsibility.” ([30:17])
• Both hosts agree that current government efforts on social media regulation have failed, sounding alarms about even greater risks with runaway AI.

Memorable Moment:

"The pace at which the Internet and social media apps developed was like glacial compared to the pace that this [AI] is developing."
— Mark McLaughlin ([31:10])

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5. Domestic Politics: Rubio, VP Vance, and the State of the 2028 Race

Timecode: 32:46 – 36:01

• Rubio’s High Profile Day: Speculation on whether Rubio briefing while VP is in Iowa is coordinated or “just a coincidence.” Both skeptical it’s deliberate but note the quietly rising rivalry ([32:46]).
• VP Strategy:
  • Melissa: The VP must stay local, be empathetic, and avoid breaking with Trump to keep his presidential hopes alive ([35:28]).
  • Eric: Suggests the administration ought to do more local media, as Bush did; national interviews less beneficial ([36:01]).

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6. Primaries, State Politics, and the Battle for the House

Timecode: 36:31 – 41:55

• State Legislative Fights: Mixed opinions on the significance of Indiana and Iowa primaries for “Trumpism” and the potential start of a post-Trump Republican era.
  • Melissa: “It’ll be an insider news cycle for six seconds...until something else happens.” ([37:33])
  • Eric: Disagrees—sees possible first signs of GOP independence from Trump ([37:40]).
• House Race Ceiling: Tallies on how many seats Democrats could realistically flip:
  • Melissa: 38 ([40:36])
  • Eric: 15 ([40:37])
  • Mark: “The correct answer is 46. I’m not predicting 46, but they could.” ([40:41])
• Housing Bills: Both co-hosts critical; neither expects passage.
  • Melissa: “I don’t think the Democrats are going to give him a win...no housing bill.” ([41:35])
  • Eric: “I think they're poorly thought out...more emotionally policy driven than actually rational policy driven.” ([41:48])

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7. Audience Q&A: Corruption, Women in Politics, LA Mayoral Race, and Putin

Timecode: 43:39 – 58:25

a. Corruption and Voter Agency

• Melissa: “The only place you can address that is at the ballot box. ...But the only place you can do it is at the ballot box. Vote out the bums.” ([45:47])
• Eric: “Sometimes the most powerful vote you can give is to not show up and vote to protest the entire system.” ([46:09])

b. Media, Women, and Political Double-Standards

• Critical caller questions double-standards and misogyny in media coverage of Republican women.
• Eric: “Always been amazed at how the double standard...the pylon of a woman whose husband was publicly assassinated ...the lack of grace is disturbing.” ([48:27])
• Melissa: “Women in general...are picked apart on our looks, intelligence level, who we’re dating, everything. Women, by the way, are just as bad as men in doing it to women. ...again, that we’ve dehumanized one another to the point of no return. ...the enemy is within.” ([49:04])

c. LA Mayoral Politics/Reality Star Candidacies

• Melissa: “People are so disenchanted with politics that they’re just in burn-it-down mode...I wouldn’t be surprised if LA, of all places, elected a reality TV star. I mean, there’s a reality TV star in the White House.” ([52:01])
• Eric: “I do think you’ve got voters out there who are really mad enough to do something radical like vote for a reality star.” ([51:31])

d. Putin’s Position in Russia/Europe

• Eric: “There’s this fool me once, shame on you...There’s a coup coming, an assassination plot, he’s doing poorly...Europeans have a lot of wishful thinking about Putin and this time does seem different. … I kind of get the sense that the Chinese are kind of baffled that they’ve hitched their wagon to the Russians...” ([57:11])

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Notable Quotes

• On Stalemate with Iran:
  “The problem with threats are when you make them, you have to follow through...And we've now made so many threats that have just...they broke the ceasefire. That's it.”
  — Melissa DeRosa, ([14:07])

• On AI Risks:
  “I think that what's being developed in AI is very exciting and...revolutionary. I also think it's really scary, not just for what I think is going to lead to mass unemployment...but...this is stuff that could lead to real catastrophic repercussions. ...I think it's actually government's responsibility.”
  — Melissa DeRosa, ([30:17])

• On Putin and Russia:
  “I kind of get the sense that the Chinese are kind of baffled that they've hitched their wagon to the Russians to see the Russians flailing in Ukraine the way they are. ...If you've ever studied Russian history...they've only wanted a Russian sphere of influence and that's what Putin wants and it's not working out for him.”
  — Eric Erickson, ([57:11])

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• White House and global news rundown: 00:00 – 07:57
• Strait of Hormuz update, U.S.-Iran developments: 07:57 – 16:34
• China summit prospects and its geopolitical ramifications: 14:58 – 17:30
• Russia/Ukraine/Europe analysis: 20:11 – 26:32
• AI regulation debate: 26:32 – 32:46
• Presidential politics: Rubio, Vance, and 2028: 32:46 – 36:01
• State politics and the battle for the House: 36:31 – 41:55
• Audience Q&A and open forum: 43:39 – 58:25

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Episode Highlights & Tone

• Tone: Collegial, incisive, occasionally irreverent. Broad-ranging but focused on substance and candor.
• Memorable moments: Hosts quoting themselves for continuity, live fact-checking of each other and audience, and quick-witted analogies (e.g., Iran as the “black knight” from Monty Python: “they’re battered and bruised, but not beaten.”).
• Critical takeaways: Policy uncertainty and headline-driven fluidity—in U.S. foreign policy, domestic politics, and tech regulation. Candid acknowledgment of risks from both adversaries abroad and political dysfunction at home.

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For listeners and news junkies, this episode served up an on-point tour of America’s geopolitical trials and its messy, high-stakes political landscape—ending, fittingly for a season finale, with as many consequential questions as answers.

Transcript

[Eric Erickson]

Foreign.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Adjust the camera to start the show because that's how I roll. Welcome in everybody. This is the morning meeting. Melissa Derosa is here. Eric Erickson's here. Good morning to you both. Thank you for being here.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Morning.

[Mark McLaughlin]

This is the, this is the last episode of season six because tomorrow we announced the new permanent co hosts and there's going to be a surprise twist. So stay tuned. Don't believe everything you read on, on social media. Don't look, don't read anything to the visages of Melissa and Eric. They're, they're poker faced, they're not giving anything away. It's going to be a big surprise tomorrow. Come back tomorrow for the big reveal and stay today because this is a season finale. There'll be a big cliffhanger. Thank you for being here. Going to run through the day, book and, and then talk to Melissa and Eric about a bunch of stuff and, and then to your questions, your comments, your suggestions, your suggestions of who the permanent co host should be all available to you with as it says in the sleeve of mine shirt here, peace, love and understanding. No smack in the chat. Questions welcome. Smack in the chat. Not. It's pretty simple. All right, let's run through the day. Book the President United States at the White House today. The White House pool includes the Daily Caller and the Daily Signal. Eric, I always love to put you on the spot. What's the difference between the Daily Caller and the Daily Signal?

[Eric Erickson]

Daily Signal is aligned with Heritage and the Daily Caller has been aligned with Tucker Carlson's. So two different branches within the conservative movement now, although more and more aligned these days.

[Mark McLaughlin]

And Melissa, a frequent guest is on Fox. What's the difference between the TV correspondent and crew Fox and the secondary TV corresponding crew Fox 5 DC.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Fox 5 DC is the local Fox 5 DC versus the national Fox.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Honestly, I didn't know local stations were in the pool these days. Maybe I've missed that, but that's kind of interesting. And Axios is a secondary print. So live interesting pool. And the pool will get an opportunity with the President. Executive time at 8am here's his schedule. Signs a proclamation in the oval office at 10:30 covered by the pool. So an opportunity to talk to the President. Then 12 o' clock policy meeting, closed press in the Oval. Then he does a pre taped interview at 3:00'. Clock. Eric, is that with you?

[Eric Erickson]

It is not with me.

[Melissa DeRosa]

All right, Melissa, I have no idea.

[Mark McLaughlin]

All right, not with me either. So we'll see who the President's pre taping interview last time it was Greta. And then big dinner, Rose Club, Rose Garden Club dinner out on that hideous patio that the president has taken our soil, American soil, and, and, and put concrete on it at seven o'. Clock. That's also closed press. We'll try to find out who's invited to that. And then interesting event at the White House today in the. In the absence of Caroline Levitt, who's on maternity leave, the briefer today will be Marco Rubio. This is fresh off his appearance last night at the Met Gala. I don't know if you guys saw this. Did you see Marco Rubio went to the Met Gala? Maybe took the train back overnight. Here's Secretary Rubio at the Met Gala.

[Eric Erickson]

Little A little.

[Mark McLaughlin]

A little AI Action. I'll say. But take a look. The theme of the Met Gala was art. So you can see. Is that, is that a famous piece of art there? I don't know. Maga. It's, it's Marco Rubio at the Met Gala. But it's not really just an AI did you guys see any of the photos from the Met Gala?

[Melissa DeRosa]

I sure did.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Who wore it best? Melissa.

[Melissa DeRosa]

I thought that Blake Lively looked great fresh off of her court settlement. I thought she looked great and I, I thought Nicole Kidman looked great.

[Mark McLaughlin]

I agree with you both. Those look great. Although they're not my answer. Eric, who looked best for you?

[Eric Erickson]

If you do not pay attention to the.

[Melissa DeRosa]

I'm so shocked to hear that.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Melissa, your choices were excellent. I thought Bad Bunny was spect because he had like on, they said aging like wrinkle makeup and dyed his hair gray. Bad Ben. He looked spectacular. The vice president, everybody knows he's going to be in Iowa today. Interesting. We'll talk about this later. But Marco Rubio, high profile moment today at the briefing room. Being the lead briefer, I'm hoping he'll like read guidance and stuff. But the vice president's going to Iowa. But the, the White House pooler. The AP reporter who's traveling with him. Right. Reports the following. First he's going to Ohio to vote in person because unlike the President, the vice president takes seriously the notion that they don't like vote by mail. And then he's going to Texas for a fundraiser and then he's going to Iowa. Pretty full day. I hope they don't have any, any travel issues. I hope they didn't book on spirit because that's a lot. He's got his event and I was at 2:30. So he just left. The president, the vice president and the first, the second lady held hands as they boarded, got off Air Marine 2 and boarded Air Force 2. So 2:30 is 3:30 Eastern. So between now and 3:30 Eastern, he's going to fly to Ohio and vote, get back on the plane and fly to Texas, go to a fundraiser and then fly to Iowa. That seems pretty tight, doesn't it?

[Eric Erickson]

Yes.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yes. Okay.

[Melissa DeRosa]

That's the kind of stamina one needs to run for President though.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yeah, true. Anyway, we'll talk about his trip Daiwa in a moment. Secretary Rubio at this hour is speaking at the Chiefs to the Chiefs of Mission conference at Southern Command in Florida. So he's starting his day in Florida and he's going to somehow get from from the White House from Florida to the briefing. Although the briefing is not, as it typically is, in around one. It's not till three this afternoon. So prime fodder for two way tonight. Looking forward to that. We've already had a briefing at the Pentagon with Pete Hagseth and Chairman Kane. Not a bunch of huge news, but clearly heavily lawyered because they're trying to make sure that the War Powers act is not invoked. So they talked a lot about the operation and they didn't even use the President's new favorite phrase, mini war. I feel like if we went back in time, we would have to tell members of Congress, you need to pass the War Powers act and a mini War Powers act because the President's using some clever words. House and Senate remain out. The bipartisan delegation is still in China. Senators going to Shanghai and Beijing include Senators Lee Cantwell, Daines Fisher and Moran. So it's bipartisan in the sense that Senator Cantwell is there, but the rest are Republicans. Primary day Indiana those state legislators are being targeted by the President because they wouldn't play ball on redistricting. We'll talk about that. I think it's kind of a little bit overstated here. Also, there's a voting in Ohio today. Polls close in Indiana at 6 Eastern, Ohio at 6:30 Eastern. 9 o'. Clock. Tonight on CNN, a California gubernatorial debate. We'll talk about that as well. Stock futures are up. Oil has gone down. Strong Corporate earnings. Who knows why the markets are so pleased with all this. But on CNBC this morning, they they said everybody still loves the corporate earnings so they're willing to ignore the fact that one fifth of the world's oil is being held hostage. Still, earnings are incredible. 83% of S&P 500 companies who've reported quarterly earnings have beat the estimates. Coinbase is cutting 14% of its workforce, citing AI acceleration. Gas prices have gone up 37 cents this month, and the trade deficit in March widened less than people expected. All right, let's talk about Iran. Probably the biggest news since everyone in the east coast went to sleep is that the Iranian foreign Minister is going to Beijing, I believe, arriving today, meeting tomorrow. This, of course, with the planned US China summit less than about 10 days away. Although I'm still wondering whether it's actually going to happen. Here's Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon this morning, number 118, talking about the pros, the nature of the American operation. It's not a war. It's not even a mini war. It's an operation. It's a project, really. It's kind of like an arts and crafts project in the strait of Hormuz. 118, please.

[Pete Hegseth]

As a direct gift from the United States to the world, we have established a powerful red, white and blue dome over the strait. American destroyers are on stations supported by hundreds of fighter jets, helicopters, drones and surveillance aircraft, providing 24.7overwatch for peaceful commercial vessels. Except Iran's, of course, which is why our ironclad blockade remains in full effect as well. In fact, six ships tried to run the blockade out of Iranian ports as Project Freedom commenced, and they were all turned around.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Couple more things. Here's. Here's one of the many posts on social media by Iranian officials kind of flexing a little bit. I read these as. As defensive, but others read them as their usual bluster. 108, please. New equation. The Strait of Hormuz is from. The speaker is in the process of being solidified. The security of shipping and energy transit has been jeopardized by the United States and its allies through the violation of the ceasefire and the imposition of a blockade. Of course their evil will diminish. We know full well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America. While we have not even begun yet, as far as we know, no ships have gone through today. Maybe one did. No more firing by Iran, either on Gulf states or on ships that we know of. But we'll see. We'll have to see what happens. Lastly, Professor Robert Pape, University of Chicago, very well respected analyst. I know him. He's very nice guy, very smart guy. Here's what he wrote. 109. I got this from John Ellis's News Items. If you don't subscribe to news items, you're making a big mistake. It's really one of the most valuable morning newsletters anybody puts out along with Eric's and mine, but it's right up there. It's the holy trinity of morning newsletters. Here's what Professor Pape wrote. President Trump is betting that Iran will not strike a ship under American protection. If Trump wins the bet, the United States stabilizes the corridor. If it fails even once, Washington must escalate or accept humiliation in full view of the world. There is no third outcome with respect to Robert Pate. Melissa, they already did strike a ship, and the President kind of slept it off. Where do we stand now? Is the focus on escalation in the Strait, or is focus on the peace negotiations or both? Where, Where? Are you looking to see how we move off of this stalemate?

[Melissa DeRosa]

No, I continue to think that the President would much rather use diplomacy to get where he wants to go and not ratchet this up. We're getting closer to the midterms. You know, gas prices continue to rise, and regardless of the stock market, I agree with you. It's sort of bizarre behavior. And acting towards this, I think that he would much rather see a resolution here without having to ratchet it up. But it's interesting, the Wall Street Journal editorial this morning, if you guys have people who are watching, haven't read it yet, it's worth a read. Felt like it was being written for an audience of one, you know, saying they violated the ceasefire. It gives you permission go in and finish it. So it's interesting because obviously the people who wanted him, who were in support of him going in in the first place, that are, I think, you know, more of his traditional base of support, continue to believe, okay, you went in, now you need to actually get the job done. Whereas I think, continue to looking for an exit and thinks that the economic pressures on them are as effective as military options. And so I think he would rather handle this diplomatically.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Eric, if Melissa's right, and a lot of people agree with Melissa, but some don't, is the point of what's happening in the Strait with this new operation, is it simply to put on economic pressure, or is it to taunt the Iranians into breaking the ceasefire?

[Eric Erickson]

I think it is economic pressure. But, you know, I got to tell you, when we went in, I actually was in the camp that thought, surely there's a strategy here. And I saw some of your tweets, Mark, and others, that suggested maybe there wasn't as much of a strategy as we were led to leave. And I think I was wrong, that this was a cavalier injury. But now that we've entered, we've got to do more than what we've done. I don't know that the policymakers in Washington fundamentally understand the regime. And yesterday they hit an oil export facility for the United Arab Emirates. They fired four missiles that were intercepted. One fell into the sea. And the UAE has signaled they expect action from the United States to deal with the situation. The United Arab Emirates, a good ally. I grew up in that country. They've just left OPEC to side with the United States. If we're not gonna aggressively respond to what just happened to them, I think we're gonna see these alliances and strengths of the Middle east begin to unravel.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Let me pick up on that exact point for all the people who've come on this program and elsewhere and said it's inevitable there's going to be more kinetic action. If, if, if what happened yesterday didn't cause the President to say, well, okay, now the war's back on, what, what would it be? They have to hit the UAE harder than that. The facility they hit is a critical facility for, for dealing with export of energy, oil without going through the Strait. So it wasn't like they hit, you know, an empty Holiday Inn or, you know, an open field. So again, either of you, do either of you think that the president basically gave them one, one gives them a mulligan, but that if they hit something like that again, the war is back on, or is this proof that he doesn't really want to start the war back?

[Eric Erickson]

I'm interpreting to Melissa's point that he thinks economic pressure now he wants a way out. If they hit an American warship, I think it's certainly game on, which I don't know that they're going to do because I think they might interpret it. I do, though, often wonder more and more, is Iran's position in thinking being influenced by an American media? The position of the American press corps, the Western press, is that the president, the taco, he chickens out that Iran's position is strong. And if that's the case, we may fall into something we don't want to get into.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Melissa?

[Melissa DeRosa]

No, I agree with everything that Eric just said and I said on the show a few weeks ago. The problem with threats are when you make them, you have to follow through on them or else they're empty. And, and we've now made so many threats that have just, you know, they broke the ceasefire. That's it. They went after the uae, who have stood by us when literally almost no one else has throughout the last eight, nine weeks. And so here we are this morning. And it doesn't. You know, the press briefing from Hexath. I expected to have some information. It just seems like more sort of running in place.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Don't take this as sarcasm. I really mean it. My favorite part of this show is when people quote themselves from previous episodes. I love it because it shows when

[Melissa DeRosa]

you prove yourself right.

[Mark McLaughlin]

I know it's good continuity, you know, to that point.

[Eric Erickson]

Melissa made literally in my morning piece. I delayed writing it this morning because I expected to wake up and overnight the bombings would have begun. We had bombers and refuelers in the air, and then they all turned around and went home.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yeah. I'm becoming skeptical that the China summit's going to happen. It'll freak the Chinese out if it gets delayed again. But he can't go if the war is going on or if the war might go on. Now, I'm not predicting it's not going to happen, but. But I'm beginning to feel like maybe it won't. The Chinese role in this remains extremely unclear. They've worked with Pakistan on a peace initiative. There's all sorts of reports that. That they may be helping Iran with the war. The president has downplayed that prospect or the severity of it or how much they've helped. Scott Besson has put more sanctions on the Chinese, which the Chinese are saying, say they're ignoring. Where do you guys stand, Melissa, on the prospect that the summit takes place? And. And will it be tense? Even though it was a summit that was supposed to be about areas of common ground? Will it be tense because the war, if it does happen.

[Melissa DeRosa]

If it does happen, I think it will be tense. I mean, Trump said yesterday. Right. That he expects it to happen. So again, now, if it doesn't happen, how are you going to explain that doesn't happen and do it with. With strength? The. The Iranians are going there today. Right. Has that been confirmed?

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yeah, the foreign minister's going.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Yeah, the foreign minister is going today. And they obviously played a. Or it's. They've. It was purported that they played a role in crafting the ceasefire. Right. They got them to agree. That's what pushed them over the. Over the finish line. But if Trump goes, I think it will be incredibly tense if the war is still going on. And I don't know. You know, I still. How can you trust China at this

[Mark McLaughlin]

point, Eric, how do you feel about the summit?

[Eric Erickson]

I'm just baffled. Y' all say the war is going on. We just heard this morning the war is not going on. This is A completely separate defensive action.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yes.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Mini war. The mini war.

[Eric Erickson]

I don't know how it goes forward, particularly because the global relationship between the US And China right now with what's happening to the Western hemisphere between China now having to pay full price for Venezuelan oil. Cuba is still on the verge of collapse. So it hasn't happened. They've been pushed out of Chile with American support, the Panama Canal situation. The Chinese have in fact provided weaponry to the Iranians. This is not a good setup for a diplomatic relationship with China for a, for a grand summit. At the same time, the president is in the second term and really loves foreign policy, as all presidents do in the second term. And going to China and just glad handing with Xi probably he thinks would boost his polling. But I just. 10 days is a long time between now and somewhere.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Yeah.

[Mark McLaughlin]

So much can change. I agree.

[Melissa DeRosa]

China also just directed companies not to abide by the sanctions on the.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yeah.

[Melissa DeRosa]

I mean it's so, it's, they're, they're ratcheting it up too.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yeah. All right, a quick word from a sponsor and then we're going to talk about Russia. Cozy earth give you 20% off. Go to cozyearth.com promo code morning. We talk so much about the bubble cuddle blanket. Ladies and gentlemen, my household just purchased a new product, the bubble cuddle pillow. And I will tell you that if you have a bubble cuddle blanket and you don't have a bubble cuddle pillow, it'd be like buying Granimals, but only buying the tops. You need the full ensemble, folks. Go to cozyearth.com promo code morning. Buy yourself a bubble cuddle pillow. It's incredible. Imagine just basically, I don't even need to explain it. It's the bubble cuddle blanket. But it's a pillow. It's soft and it'll be the best pillow you ever have. And you'll probably eventually have to buy more than one because in my house we fight over it. Also, the jogger sets available now, the clogs, all available off the jogger sets. Very comfortable. In fact, this would be like nirvana to put on the jogger set and lay on the bubble cuddle pillow. That may seem to be too much for some of you, maybe sensory overload, but I'd recommend it. I may try that right now. Go to cozyearth.com, use the promo code MORNING for 20% off everything on the site.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same Premium Wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities. So do like I did and have one of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to [e-mail]

[Melissa DeRosa]

Switch upfront payment of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month required intro rate first 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees, extra fee, full [e-mail] I

[Matt Ebert]

started with one shop. No college degree, no big investors. It was just a willingness to work. Over time that one shop turned into a multi billion dollar business called Crashed Champions. All the lessons I learned along the way came from the grind. And that's what my show Pod Crash is all about. We have real conversations with people who've built things the hard way. We talk to founders, athletes and blue collar leaders who kept going when things got tough. You'll hear stories of grit, leadership and growth. Plus real world lessons you can take back to your team and your life tomorrow.

[Mark McLaughlin]

When you get momentum, you step on the gas. That's how you get separation from everybody else. I was at Harvard Law School. I was blah blah blah. I looked up. Let me tell you something. There's kids in my neighborhood putting in sheetrock that is smarter than you.

[Caller from Upstate New York]

AI is going to disrupt a lot of stuff. It is never going to disrupt physical

[Mark McLaughlin]

blue collar trade skill. And the guy just looked at me

[Caller from Upstate New York]

and he said it's bloody impossible.

[Mark McLaughlin]

So I asked him this question.

[Matt Ebert]

I said, it's impossible unless that's Pod Crash with me. Matt ebert watch on YouTube and listen wherever you get your podcasts.

[Mark McLaughlin]

All right. Lots to say about Russia because. Because the president, who normally leans against Mr. Zelensky, as you know, in his interview with Hugh Hewitt yesterday, seemed shockingly interested in zelensky. Here he is, 119. It wasn't. It wasn't totally praising, but it was pretty positive. Here's what he said, some of what he said. He said, I like Zelensky, but he's a cunning guy. I don't know. Cunning's not necessarily bad. He said about the Ukrainians. They're better than anyone in Europe in this fight. They're better than any of the U.S. nATO's allies. He said of the armed forces of Ukraine. Here is what Zelensky said on social media today. 113 the Ukrainians have hit a bunch of targets in Russia that have really freaked the Russians out. And the Russians are scaling back their parade because they're worried about security there's reports that Putin is worried now, more worried than ever about being killed. Here's Zelensky's tweet. He said it's time for Russian leaders to take real steps to end their war, especially since Russia's Defense Ministry believes it cannot hold a parade in Moscow without Ukraine's goodwill. 114. They hit New York Times. They hit A. Is that 114? Yeah, they hit a Moscow high rise. That's part of what freaked the Russians out right before the parade. And they hit some town I've never heard of. That's, that's way on the other side of Russia, thousands of miles, hundreds of miles away, and they hadn't hit that town before. That's freaked them out a little bit. There's one more thing. Oh, yeah. So that's enough, Eric. Eventually the President's going to turn back to try and end this war. Moscow also plays footsie with Iran. Is he going to just. Is this just a little bit of flirtation with the Ukrainians or in the end, he's going to force Zelensky to make a deal that he doesn't want to make and side with Putin?

[Eric Erickson]

I think that the President's opinions on Zelensky and the Ukrainians are turning in large part because of them stepping up and helping the Saudis and the Emirates deal with the Iranian drones, even when we didn't seem inclined to take their help. They have. And so he's getting feedback from our Middle Eastern allies about Ukraine. Listen, I spent an entire half hour on my radio show yesterday because I think the two most significant things that have happened are that Zelensky flew to Armenia, a Russian ally, and met with Georgian president, a Russian ally, and came out alive on top of everything else happening. The stat that continues to blow my mind, and it is real, is that if you took the pace of a snail and marched it into Ukraine at the time the war started, however many years ago, the snail would get further into Ukraine than the Russians have, and they've actually been pushed back. The Ukrainians have turned this thing around. A month ago, people were thinking they were going to lose, and now they're recapturing territory and bombing parts of Russia that no one thought they could reach.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Melissa. Eric is channeling his inner Mark Thiessen and being very optimistic that the President will side with the Ukraine.

[Eric Erickson]

Hope I hear he's listening to Mark.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yeah. So, Melissa, is Eric right or. Because I think he'll just go right back to Putin. But which, which, which camp are you in?

[Melissa DeRosa]

As we know, the president is incredibly fickle from day to day, but I think that the president respects strength. And to Eric's point, Ukraine is demonstrating strength right now, and they really turned things around and they've been doing things that have been helpful to us. So at least temporarily, I think that the president's like, oh, Zelinsky, he's stronger than I thought he was. And he's like, respectful of that. But to your point, I don't know how lasting that is. I could totally see him going back and forcing them to end this thing.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yeah. So the Europeans, you know, are talking all this big talk. Oh, we don't need the. We're not going to be in the Canadians. We're not going to be beholden to the United States for security. We're going to have our own plan about dealing with Ukraine. I'll believe it when I see it. Here's honorary European member Richard Haas on Morning Joe, basically saying America's role in the world has fundamentally changed because Donald Trump hasn't kowtowed to the Europeans. This is Richard Haass on Morning Joe.

[Richard Haass]

Countries are no longer taking their cue from the United States. They're looking for other economic partners, other strategic partners. This is a world of reduced American impact, reduced American influence. So we're going to continue to do our thing. But we have gone, if you will, from being the center of most relationships, the most institutions, by the way, and we've withdrawn from many of the institutions. So China is a beneficiary. And what's happening is all these other countries are now scrambling to fill the void. So what's going on is a harbinger of the future. Again, this is the post America, one last point. Not because others have become so strong, but because we've pulled back.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Melissa, I have the greatest respect for the Council on Foreign Relations that Richard used to have so much respect. I've turned down membership two or three times. Do you agree with Richard, what he said there? You agree with that analysis that America is no longer leading the world?

[Melissa DeRosa]

No, I mean, I disagree. Look, I agree with his analysis where he said that we're no longer at the center in terms of keeping NATO together and moving as a block, but at the same time we're just more renegade. I think that under Trump were renegades, but at the same time, you're seeing all of these stories coming out of Europe about their concern for Russia and the potential vulnerabilities of Russia potentially attacking them and they're not able to defend themselves and scrambling to try to build up military presence by 2030, so they could be able to defend themselves should something like that happen. And the President is now taking troops out of European countries that aren't being helpful to us right now. Right. We just took 5,000 troops, I think, out of Germany. And so I think that Europe is a paper tiger. The President is right on that. They have completely no reserves to do anything to protect themselves. And so I think right now we're in a little bit of a game of if you're not going to step up, we're not going to help you. But if anything, I think that strengthens our position if they can't actually get it together.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Eric, if you were sitting in a Buckhead bar on a bar stool next to Richard Haass and he said that stuff, would you deck him?

[Eric Erickson]

I wouldn't deck him. That's not my style. But I would laugh at him. I think the American foreign policy lead in this country, left and right, have all been seen from the same playbook since the Cold War, and they badly need to update their theses.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Totally agree with that. Well said. All right. We talked about this story last night on two Way tonight, but it's such an important story that I want to hear Melissa and Eric on it. AI Trump administration came in and said the Biden folks were shackling AI We, David Sachs, we are unshackling. The private sector is going to rule this. Now. It's being reported by multiple news organizations, something that I picked up during my reporting a couple weeks ago when I was in Washington. The White House is considering, according to the New York Times headline, vetting AI models before they are released. The White House wants to avoid any political repercussions if a devastating AI enabled cyber attack were to occur. People in the tech industry and the administration said this is framed as they want to avoid political repercussions. Really what they want to avoid is a huge public health crisis or national security crisis or data breach. So it's, it's not just politics. It's a substance to get ahead of the models. Like Mythos, Some officials are pushing for a review system that would give the government first access to AI models, but that would not block their release. People briefed on the talk said so they're not looking to say if they review something, you can't put it out. But trust me, if they reviewed something and they thought it was dangerous, they would say very strongly, you shouldn't put that out. And I think the industry would listen because just as the government doesn't want to be asleep at the switch, during this huge revolution, which I keep telling you all folks, pay attention. This is the biggest revolution of our lifetimes. Of our lifetimes. The government does want to be asleep at the switch, but these private sector folks, even the ones who are more financially oriented rather than publicly oriented, they don't want to be the ones who lead to a big public health crisis or some other disastrous thing. So, Eric, is this good public policy, even though, again, it's a government interference in a thriving American sector? Do you support this concept and why?

[Eric Erickson]

I. One, I don't. And two, I also think that this is in large part being put up by the AI giants. They want this, if only for some level of liability protection in a litigious society, particularly when there's a massive PR campaign, I suspect, led by China and others, to try to scare Americans about AI. I have just side note, never seen an industry led by people who want to vilify their own technology. When you have a modi from anthropic come out and say, we're going to wipe out industries, when you have the OpenAI guys come out and talk about all the scary things they're going to do, it's the CEOs of the technology that are scaring Americans more than anyone else. And in large part, from what I hear behind the scenes, it is to get more government involvement in their products, if only for liability purposes, to protect them. They. They want something like the vaccine registry so that they can't be sued if their AI does something. And that's where we're headed.

[Mark McLaughlin]

You may be partially right, but I can tell you there are people at senior levels of the American government who have seen the latest models and are scared to. Scared to death. So I don't, I don't think it's just industry driven. I think, I think they recognize that it's their responsibility.

[Eric Erickson]

There is some scariness out there, particularly with what we hear about Mythos.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yeah, but the speed at which the model. Every time I go to Washington and meet with officials about this topic, their level of concern is higher because the models are developing so quickly. And there's different things within the companies and advisory boards to say, okay, see if you can stop this thing from hacking into computers, or see if you can stop this thing from creating a bomb or creating some germ that would kill everybody. And increasingly they say, well, there's nothing we can do. Melissa, if you were, you've worked on comparable issues in state government. If you were an advisor to the White House, would you say, we need to make this happen. Would you say we need to go further?

[Melissa DeRosa]

Like, I think, I think that what was described in the New York Times doesn't go far enough. Yeah, this is the one place I'm going to break with my friend Eric this morning. I think that what's being developed in AI is very exciting and to your point, revolutionary. I also think it's really scary, not just for what I think is going to lead to mass unemployment, let's put that aside. But to the point of what you just said, you know, some of the stuff that they're reporting about Mythos, that it could, it figures out coding so quickly that the locks that I put on my bank account, someone could get, you know, have figured out in less than 30 seconds and they're in our individual bank accounts. Like this is stuff that could lead to real catastrophic repercussions. And so I think that we're behind frankly in doing some of this regulating and I think it's actually government's responsibility the same way I think government has fallen down on, on regulating social media. I mean, that's a different, that's a social crisis. This is much different. But I think that it needs to

[Mark McLaughlin]

be done perfectly said, the failure to regulate social media. And again, I'm not big into government regulation of most things, but something that's destroying the lives of most of our kids probably should get some regulation. And, and the government totally failed on that. And, and the failures, the, the implications of the failure of this are so far beyond the failures to regulate social media. So far beyond. And the pace at which the Internet and social media apps developed was like, was like glacial compared to the pace that this is developing.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Yeah. Think about to your point on what it's doing to our children. I mean, beyond just the, you know, cyber bullying and self esteem issues and depression. You know, there's literal brainwashing going on for an entire generation around Israel and anti Semitism in the history of America and all these things. And government has to play a role in dealing with that or else we just all have to live with the consequences. We're choosing to live with the consequences. That scares me down the line.

[Eric Erickson]

You can't expect an administration that went soft on TikTok, which is a Chinese surveillance app, to actually regulate social media. And by the way, I do think there's a role for government in this, but this particular administration I don't think is set up to deal with it.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yeah. All right, well, if it's not them, I don't know because I mean we're very lucky. Whatever you think of David Sachs, we're very lucky to have him there because he's got a fighting chance to deal with this because he's brilliant and he's well connected and he's not playing by normal rules because he's in the government, but he also hosts a podcast and like criticizes the government. Whole thing's a little bizarre, but. But if it weren't for David Sachs, this would be, this would be an even bigger challenge. And I'm not even sure he's up to it.

[Melissa DeRosa]

All right, one thing before we move on to Eric's point. If, if Eric's right, which Eric is very smart and this is not the administration to deal with it, then we're talking about another two and a half years. Where are we going to be in two and a half years on A.I.

[Caller Croft]

yeah.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yeah.

[Melissa DeRosa]

It's going to be game over.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Two and a half weeks is the time frame I'm thinking about. Okay. There's a school of thought that says Marco Rubio's rising, Vance will be steamrolled and somehow Trump won't endorse and Rubio will be him in a nomination fight. That's never going to happen, folks. People talk about that he's not going to run against Vance if Vance runs. I'm not sure Vance is going to run. Then there's a school of thought that says Vance is going to be endorsed by Trump and he'll be the nominee and maybe he'll run with Rubio. But all this love affair that the media and others are having with Rubio and donors, it's not just the media is going to be for naught. There's, there's those schools of thought and stuff in between. First question, Eric. Is it a coincidence that they're having Rubio Secretary Rubio brief on the day that the vice presidents in Iowa is that Donald Trump's hijinks to sort of pit them against each other. It's just a coincidence.

[Eric Erickson]

I think it's probably a coincidence, but I'm in the camp that we've, we've had one vice president elected after a president in over 100 some odd years. Given Trump's popularity, if Vance does run, which is why I think he might not, I think Republicans have trouble because, I mean, just history and ties to a president.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Omg, you're making me push back. First of all, Biden became president after being vice president. Not right away, but he did. But he did. And more people went to the polls in Florida intending to vote for al Gore in 2000 than to vote for George W. Bush. So Gore won. He didn't become president. But Gore would have been president had the votes if not for the butterfly ballot. So I don't think you can. So. And again, if you talk about the sample space, not that many have failed. Quayle failed, but Cheney didn't run. So, I mean, the reality is.

[Eric Erickson]

Yeah. Didn't run. In which, frankly, that's my overall thesis for the Republican Party, is we've been refighting all the fights going back to 2000. Didn't run. But I do think historically in this country, vice presidents have to own the presidencies. And if Trump can be popular by the time he gets out of here, but at 35 to 30, 40% approval rating is going to be.

[Mark McLaughlin]

But that's about. But that's about winning the general. It's not about who the nominee is going to write.

[Eric Erickson]

That is true. Yes.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yeah. Melissa, is it a coincidence? I don't think it is. I mean, I think it is not a coincidence.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Fence post, Mark.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yeah, turtle on a fence post. Exactly right. Okay. If, Melissa, if you were staffing the vice president today and you're. And your goal was like, he's going there to help a congressional candidate. He's going there because I was an important state, there's a governor's race center, et cetera. But if you were staffing him only through the prism of. I want to help you today, Mr. Vice President, increase your chances of being the next President of the United States. What are some things he should do today to, through that prism alone, some

[Melissa DeRosa]

of the things to help him be President of the United States. I mean, he can't say anything that breaks with the president. Right. The number one thing you can do is differentiate yourself a little bit, but he can't. So I would just try to stay focused on local issues and be empathetic and connect with people on a very local level.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Is this an old fashioned thought? Should he do an interview with the Des Moines Registers political report?

[Melissa DeRosa]

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. It's like, do like be local, be on the ground, be local, be accessible, know their local issues and try to stay away from what's driving the national news.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Eric, will the vice. Will the Secretary of State in the briefing room be charming, combative or both?

[Eric Erickson]

All of the above. Rubio is great at this. And by the way, to your point, it's one of the things that surprises me about this administration. You know, when Bush ran for reelection in 2004, he spent, I want to say like 70% of his time doing interviews with local newspapers and TV stations in, in swing states. And I, it's something that I think this president needs to start doing more of is sit down with WSB in Atlanta or the WHIO in Ohio and do those interviews instead of the New York Times and seeing.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Totally, totally agree. All right, we're going to speed through our final 1, 2, 3, 4 topics and then get to your questions. If you're here on the platform, would like to speak to Eric and Melissa on the final season finale of this season. Please raise your hand. Okay. Adam Wren writes for Politico is really one of the best reporters in the country covering politics. He's awesome. But today I have to take issue with his saying, like I think he said that the the president has to defeat at least four of the eight Republican incumbent state legislators they're targeting in Iowa for it to be a win. I don't think anybody cares. I don't think it's much of a sign of anything. And I don't think if he wiped out it means anything. Maybe I'm wrong, right? In Indiana. We're talking about Indiana. We where the state legislative senate leader refused to do redistricting. He's not on the ballot, but a bunch of his allies are. And the president's operation has spent big to try to stop them. They've been opposed by Mitch Daniels, amongst others. Melissa, if the president is wiped out or if the president wins all eight, does it matter for anything? I don't think it does. Do you?

[Melissa DeRosa]

I mean, look, it'll be an insider news cycle for six seconds until something else happens.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Eric. Eric.

[Eric Erickson]

Yeah, I actually think it matters more than you do because we've been waiting for these moments where the Republican Party starts to move beyond Donald Trump as he hits status. And if you do get Indiana Republicans who decide, you know what, I'm going to stick with my state legislator. It's not necessarily the break I think the Politico will make it be, but it is the break where the Republicans start saying, you know what, we actually do have people beyond Donald Trump that we pay attention to.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yeah, I get that in the abstract. I just think Indiana is not a great test. I think Massie will be a great test and Cassidy will because who's your Hoosiers just are different than everybody else. And I mean that in a positive way, like they're more immune to anything.

[Eric Erickson]

But you know, to the point though, that's also to the political team of the White House. Being careful which fight you pick 100%.

[Melissa DeRosa]

I was thinking, I don't understand. On how many fronts do you want to fight a war?

[Mark McLaughlin]

I agree, by the way, like when,

[Melissa DeRosa]

in a time when resources are not limited, they obviously print money, but really this is what you're going to spend money on. You have 46 seats to defend against in Congress or 44 seats on the Democrats list.

[Mark McLaughlin]

You guys are very smart. Okay, California debate tonight. Gubernatorial debate once again. Remember, in California, everybody runs on the same ballot, so they're all in the same debate stage. CNN's hosting it. I don't know why these candidates to the point about, we talked before about national versus the state media. I don't know why, why they're doing a national debate. Here's the Desert sun headline which is, will Tuesday's California gubernatorial debate be calm or a mess? Seven candidates qualified to take the stage just as mail in ballots start to hit California mailboxes. Candidates who qualified to participate are Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, the Republicans. And then Saviour Becerra, Matt Mann, Katie Poor, Tom Steyer and Antonio Vilargosa. These are basically the candidates who are given the best chance to win. Everyone but. Well, I shouldn't, I won't prejudge it, Eric. I just would love to always take the temperature on this. Who do you think will make the final two for the general election amongst those seven?

[Eric Erickson]

Yeah, I think the way they're headed actually is you're going to probably see Tom Steyer and Hilton get in there just because.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Okay, Melissa, who are the two?

[Melissa DeRosa]

I think Basara and Hilton.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yeah, I still think it's Hilton and man. If man catches on tonight or in the next couple days if not. I agree with Melissa Becerra. Lots going on in House, house for House, the House battle for the House. And there's some primaries coming up. Democrats yesterday put out a list of eight more races. They're. They're going for. What is today your number? Not prediction, but what's the ceiling on the number of House seats? Net House seats Democrats could gain if they have their best possible day. Realistically, what's your prediction on the net ceiling of the net. I see somebody put in the chat 20. That's wrong. Melissa, what's your number?

[Melissa DeRosa]

Oh, God, I don't know. They're aiming at 44 seats, so the net ceiling 38.

[Mark McLaughlin]

38.

[Eric Erickson]

Eric, I'm going lower than 20, maybe 15.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Wow, fascinating. The correct answer is 46, ladies and gentlemen. 46. I'm not predicting 46, but they could. Are either of you following the housing bill? The two housing, the competing bills. Politico. Politico is reporting that the President is now secretly against the Senate bill. The House may pass another bill. The big challenge that I don't see in any of the coverage is I really am skeptical. Democrats who voted in great numbers for the bills originally are going to vote on final passage to give the President a massive economic policy win in election year. And if you don't have the Democrats can be very hard to pass either bill. So Melissa, how does this end? Is there a housing bill? Is it more like bill or the Senate bill?

[Melissa DeRosa]

I agree with you and I've been saying that for months. I don't think the Democrats are going to give him a win. It's just like when Biden tried to get the immigration reform done right when it was too late and the Republicans wouldn't give him things they had wanted for years.

[Mark McLaughlin]

So, so you say no housing bill.

[Melissa DeRosa]

No housing bill, Eric?

[Eric Erickson]

Yeah, I don't think there's a housing bill. In fact, the reason I would say that is one of the lobbyists against it is just texting me to figure out what stake I want for me, having talked up so much about it negatively.

[Mark McLaughlin]

You don't, you don't like either bill?

[Eric Erickson]

No, I, I actually don't like the bills. I think they're actually poorly thought out. They're more emotionally policy driven than actually rational policy driven.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Oh, interesting. Because most, most policy experts in a non partisan way think they're actually both pretty substantive. What's like a provision in one of

[Eric Erickson]

them you don't like the restrictions on, on investors owning houses that, I mean

[Mark McLaughlin]

anything, anything besides that one. I'm not minimizing that one.

[Eric Erickson]

I think that, that, that's the biggest one and I think a lot of the policy positions in there though, it's, I, I, I just see when Washington does these omnibus packages like this one big if you broke it into pieces, there would be some salvageable pieces, but together I think it's, it's not going to work well.

[Melissa DeRosa]

And that's what Trump just went south on, right? What in the Senate bill he said he did.

[Mark McLaughlin]

I don't know why all of a sudden he's against it. All right.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Some of his developer friends got in

[Mark McLaughlin]

his ear and probably the case, not all the developers are against it. I don't know why that's true either. All right, ladies and gentlemen, now it's time for your participation in the program. If you're here on the platform, would like to be involved, please raise your hand. This is not, by the way, the part of the program where you can start to put smack in the chat. That moratorium extends throughout the program. Please extend the presumption of grace to all involved and no smack in the chat. Here we go. Start with Croft. Croft, welcome in. On mute. Tell folks who don't know where you are what's on your mind. For Eric and Melissa, thank you for being here.

[Caller Croft]

Hi, thanks. I'm in Calgary, Alberta. Mark, I'd just like to comment on the pants. They are really comfortable.

[Mark McLaughlin]

You talking about that? You're talking about the. The cozy earth pants?

[Caller Croft]

The cozy earth pants, yeah. They're comfortable pants I've ever.

[Mark McLaughlin]

The most comfortable. And you can wear them anywhere, can't you? Cross anywhere. You could wear them to the country club, the nightclub, the beach. Yeah, they're amazing.

[Caller Croft]

You know, they might be too, you know, beach. I'm not sure, but I've worn them

[Mark McLaughlin]

to the beach anyway. Yeah. Thank you.

[Caller Croft]

You're just a little more flexible guy than me.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yeah. You're probably pretty far from the beach.

[Caller Croft]

Comment about

[Caller Zimmy]

Iran.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yes, sir.

[Caller Croft]

Monty Python had a skit where there was a black knight.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Yeah.

[Caller Croft]

And he came across a troop. I forget which movie it was in. And the guy got his hand.

[Mark McLaughlin]

I think it's all. I think it's holy. I think it's Holy grail.

[Caller Croft]

Yeah. And he ends up being a bodyless head. He yells and screams and tells him to keep on fighting and all that kind of stuff. Iran kind of reminds me of that. It's kind of like, you know, we're going to fight even though we're bodiless. And then the other thing I worry, I wonder about is the corruption in the political system in states, whether it's crypto or whether it's the boys building drones or all the things that are going on. And then you go to the states and the Democrats seem to let somebody steal a billion dollars as long as they get a $10,000 contribution to their, to their campaign. What does an American voter do who is anti corruption?

[Eric Erickson]

Yeah.

[Mark McLaughlin]

All right. Those are two great topics. Melissa, you first on. On, on the Iranians. And I guess the premise, Croft, you'll correct me if I'm wrong, is just they, they're. They're battered and bruised, but they're not beaten.

[Melissa DeRosa]

They're battered and bruised, are not beaten. And when you have nothing, you have nothing to lose. And right now it's like they're, you know, they're going to keep fighting, fighting. And they're going to hope that time is on their side. They're going to hope that this war being as unpopular as it is watching the clock getting closer to the midterms, is going to soften Trump's resolve and that they will come out with a better deal than they otherwise would have if they just cave.

[Eric Erickson]

Eric Look, I think that Iran dictatorships have a way of surviving these sorts of things unless you put maximum pressure on them. We're not doing that right now. And so I do worry about we preserve a regime that we've got them by the tail and we haven't declawed or defamed them. And this is a regime that's going to bite us if they can.

[Mark McLaughlin]

And then, Melissa, second question about corruption and how American voters are supposed to address at the federal level, but as Kraft says, also at the state level, there's just a pay to play is the order of the day.

[Melissa DeRosa]

The only place that you can address that is at the ballot box. And what's scary to me actually about the redistricting race to the bottom is that we're going to create these gerrymandered seats where there is no competition, so there is no accountability. And I'm sorry to say that, but I'm a realist on this front. But the only place you can do it is at the ballot box. Vote out the bums.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Eric.

[Eric Erickson]

I think that at some point voters have to realize that sometimes the most powerful vote you can give is to not show up and vote to protest the entire system. And you'll have cunning politicians who want to get elected who realize I can get these people on my side if I change my ways.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Croft, thank you. Grateful to you. Thank you for being part of two way our vast North American viewing audience, as we like to say. Colleen, welcome in. Tell folks who don't know where you are what's on your mind for Eric and for Melissa.

[Caller Colleen]

Hi guys. Good morning. I was just going to comment Mark, on your next up yesterday about Erica Kirk, because the whole Erica Kirk media Trump thing for the past week has been bothering me because I think it's you said that Erica Kirk reached a breaking point. And I think that the mainstream media, and I'm a Democrat has been portraying and I think Melania Trump reached a breaking point because they portray Republican women as stupid, not as intelligent as them. I heard on CNN they described Melania the other day as a silent, elegant doll. And then on CNN they were talking about, well, Michelle has a J.D. i like Michelle Obama, but sort of implying, well, they said it like two times. You know, Michelle has a JD And Melania doesn't. And I spent a lot of time in the former Yugoslavia and the former Soviet Union. And I know she grew up in that environment. She's probably tougher than Candace Owens and Jimmy Kimmel combined. But I just think this divisive, it's not a joke. It's not funny because our main enemy is internal. We have geopolitical enemies, Russia, China, Iran, obviously. But what's going to destroy our democracy is in this country. And people like Jimmy Kimmel and Candace Owens have to stop. They have to grow up and stop. Because even like in the campaign with Julia Roberts, she did this advertisement I don't know if you guys remember portraying like Republican women. Don't have to tell. You don't have to tell your husband you're voting for Kamala. And I think that must have turned off. If I was a Republican woman, I would say, well, maybe if I'm considering voting for Kamala, I'm not anymore. So I just think there has to be a big somebody has to be held accountable because it's just not helpful and it's really destroying our democracy. That's the threat to our democracy, in my opinion.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Thank you for that, Eric.

[Eric Erickson]

Well, I tend to agree and obviously I'm biased. I've always been amazed at how the double standard that exists within the press corps, even towards the spouses of Republican candidates, the fawning portrayals, getting on the COVID of Vogue or Vanity Fair if you're a Democrat, if you're a Republican, you can. And just the side note here, the pylon of a woman whose husband was publicly assassinated in the last year from the Candace Owens of the world and from some of the Democrats as well, has been appalling to me. It's a woman who was forced into a role she didn't want to be in. And the lack of grace towards her by people is just really disturbing.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Melissa No, I agree. But I also want to say, look, this didn't start with Melania Trump. Ask Hillary Clinton how it felt to be destroyed in the press when she was first lady. I think women in general, unfortunately, or picked apart on our looks, on our intelligent level, on who we're dating, on every single thing. And women, by the way, are just as bad as men in doing it to women. So I think that that crosses bipartisan lines. But I couldn't agree more about Erica Kirk. I think that what they have done to her in the press is disgusting. I feel horrible for that woman and I think it just shows, again, that we've dehumanized one another to the point of no return. And I agree with you 100% with what you said. The enemy is within. And that's my biggest issue with, again, social media and the lack of regulation on it, because I think that that is a major driver, you know, algorithms that reward hate, algorithms that reward really angry emotions. And we've just gotten to a point where you, you know, assassinate somebody and it's like, what's next?

[Mark McLaughlin]

Colleen, thank you. The vice president's landed in Ohio, headed to vote now with his wife, and did not talk on the plane, but told the press he would speak to them later. So we'll keep monitoring that, and I'll continue to hope he makes it to his three. Three stops. Mark, welcome. And tell folks who don't know where you are what's on your mind for Melissa and for Eric.

[Caller from Upstate New York]

Well, I am in upstate New York, but today I want to say I'm calling from Los Angeles, where I live for 30 years. And what I want to know is the mayoral race in LA in. In your consciousness now, because just a few things. Spencer Pratt, a reality star, is running against Karen Bass and Natya Rahman, DSA and, you know, he's a reality TV star, and I don't know if any of them ever get elected, but he has a killer ad coming out. He is the ruthless podcast, I really think, and this comes personally, my sister's house burned down in the Palisades fire. And my first two campaigns were Republican Richard Reardon and a guy named Maury Wax Boot, who ran against a first tame congressman, Xavier Becerra.

[Eric Erickson]

So, yeah.

[Mark McLaughlin]

What do you think?

[Caller from Upstate New York]

Is Spencer Pratt, is that on the national. Your radar?

[Mark McLaughlin]

Well, it is, because. Because it's not just because of the celebrity and the great ad that he put out last week, but because I think. I think everybody has a feeling that the voters there are ready for something different. And. And so it's a possibility. Eric, are you. Are you tracking that race?

[Eric Erickson]

Yeah. You know, I'm always skeptical of these candidates who. Their pulse comes out on Twitter, which I don't think is the real world or Right Coded podcast, But I've got friends in L. A who are furious, and they're Democrats, and they're absolutely furious with the lack of rebuilding, the lack of progress, and the blame game that the mayor and the governor have done. And I do think you've got voters out there who are really mad enough to do something radical like vote for reality star as mayor.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Yeah.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Melissa.

[Melissa DeRosa]

No, I agree. Look what just happened in New York, you know, look at what happened in Chicago. Look at what happened in Boston. Like, we are in a time right now where people are so disenchanted with politics that they're just in burn it down mode. And I think that Republicans sort of have already gone through that and we're comfortable in that. And that was Trump. And I think Democrats are doing that now and picking people that have absolutely no qualification for some of the most important jobs in the world in some of these larger cities that have bigger economies than countries. And I wouldn't be surprised if they, if la, of all places, elected a reality TV star. I mean, there's a reality TV star in the White House.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Does anybody, does anybody know Spencer Pratt using professional consultants for his race?

[Caller from Upstate New York]

I heard him today. He spent zero money on that viral ad. He's spending his money now on billboards, which will be coming out. He said putting up 60 billboards and he is bringing in money, I guess some. But he should hear him rail about how the left is using consultants and where they're spending your money.

[Mark McLaughlin]

I just wonder if he's got consultants. I'm gonna have to look into that. Thank you for the question mark. Grateful to. Enjoy your trip out there. Zimmy, welcome in. Tell folks who don't know where you are what's on your mind. For Melissa and for Eric.

[Caller Zimmy]

I'm in A Del Rey and I agree with the former caller about the state of Los Angeles. I can't believe that Karen Bass would even have the chutzpah, or as they say on T. Lee, chutzpah to run for this office. It's been such a disaster with the

[Mark McLaughlin]

endorsement of Kamala Harris, by the way,

[Caller Zimmy]

I was gonna say that's gonna be a negative. But anyway, I just want to thank you for this platform. It's been very fun to be on. I feel like I'm like when I went to baseball fantasy camp at Vero Beach. I get to be on the McLaughlin Group with all of my, some of my heroes and it's been a lot of fun. Congratulations on this platform. And what about Anna Paulina Luna as a presidential candidate? Candidate with Marco Rubio.

[Eric Erickson]

Discuss.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Okay. Thank you for that. Thank you for your kind words about the platform. Eric, knock that one out of the park. Or down I.

[Eric Erickson]

They're from the same state, so you wouldn't be able to count Florida's electoral college vote if they were to run. And also, please shoot me now if that's going to be the Republican nominees, because I am just not a fan of. Yeah.

[Caller Zimmy]

What's wrong with her?

[Eric Erickson]

I think that she. She goes out of her way to be too flamboyant and, frankly, obnoxious on social media with what she does.

[Caller Zimmy]

I've never watched her social media, but. But I mean, as a Latino candidates, I mean, wouldn't that be a win?

[Eric Erickson]

Well, not when they're from the same state, because you couldn't count Florida's Electoral College.

[Caller Zimmy]

Okay, then I didn't even know what. I didn't even consider that. That's a very good point.

[Mark McLaughlin]

I mean, one. One of them can win the Electoral college votes, but the vice president should. Can. It can't. So you'd run the risk of. Of falling short if in a close race. Melissa, do you have a view of the congresswoman?

[Melissa DeRosa]

I really am not familiar with her at all, but I trust Eric's instincts on this one.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Zimmy, thank you. Kamala Harris should be noted. Although she endorsed the mayor's race, she did not endorse the governor's race. An interesting. An interesting decision. I was just gonna ask you.

[Melissa DeRosa]

I thought that was pretty baffling, that Karen Bass move. It's like, what are you doing?

[Mark McLaughlin]

I think Karen Bass was a big supporter of hers, so that's fine.

[Eric Erickson]

But politics is Karen Bass's interviews of, like, does she actually live in Los Angeles and know what's going on? I mean, I've never been a huge fan of hers, but some of her interviews lately have been tone deaf, including not knowing that Spencer Pratt actually had his house burned down in the Palisades.

[Melissa DeRosa]

In fairness, she wasn't there when the fires happened.

[Mark McLaughlin]

That's true. Yeah. Professor Kenny, welcome in. Thank you for being here. Tell folks about the Post game show, as we call it, and what's on your mind.

[Professor Kenny]

Hey, good morning, Eric. I read your substack this morning. Yeah. He didn't wake up. And, you know, it's so funny with Melissa. Melissa, I've known you forever because you would. You were Andrew Cuomo's right hand during the COVID stuff, but it, like, it just registered now.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Same Melissa DeRosa, 111 days on television with you.

[Professor Kenny]

Yes, Every day. That was. That was great tv. Too bad. It was. It was what it was. But anyway, I wanted to bring up Putin for a second. There was an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal about Putin and, like, the parallels, I guess, of Putin and Trump when it comes to, like, they're saying Putin, you know, like, how Trump's getting away from Europe and what I mean how Putin's actions are basically taken lessened his power throughout the world, you know, in his relationships. And I just wanted to see what you guys had to say about that stuff and then just remind everybod come on the Post show, we listen to mark from 10 to 11 833-446-349346 on series 6M. Yes, on Sirius. And then we got Alan C show after Mark's two way tonight. So anyway, I put all of that stuff in the chat, Eric.

[Eric Erickson]

You know, I there's this fool me one, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Sort of parallel with Putin that there's a coup coming, there's an assassination plot, he's doing poorly. I think a lot of Europeans in particular have a lot of wishful thinking about Putin and this time does seem to be a little bit different. The level of maneuvering. He's very big on his victory parade. The annual event in Moscow, they're scaling it back. There probably is something going on and he is alienating. I kind of get the sense that the Chinese are kind of baffled that they've hitched their wagon to the Russians to see the Russians flailing in Ukraine the way they are. But I mean they're clearly there is an alliance. My biggest frustration is there has always been in the United States particularly I think they're in the JD Vance camp now in foreign policy, this idea that we can co opt Russians, bring them to the west and into a Western sphere of influence. And if you've ever studied Russian history, the Russians going back to the czars rejected the idea of being part of a Western sphere of influence. They've only wanted a Russian sphere of influence and that's what Putin wants and it's not working out for him.

[Professor Kenny]

No.

[Mark McLaughlin]

Thank you. Melissa, real quick if you can.

[Melissa DeRosa]

No, I'll be real quick. I agree with every word Eric just said.

[Mark McLaughlin]

All right, professor, thank you. Some stuff to tell you about tonight on two way tonight, a good friend of Melissa's, Congressman Mike Lawler of New York will be my guest. So join us at 5 o'. Clock. We'll have full coverage of Rubio Vance and everything else tomorrow in the morning meeting, as we said, unveiling the new regular co hosts. Please join us for that. It'll be exciting. And again, you might be surprised at the outcome. And on next up, my guests are Megan Kelly and Molly Hemingway. And my May 8 for 28 rankings on which I've done a lot of reporting, big shake up this month. These are the eight Democrats most likely to be the presidential nominee in 2028 and changes at the top. Some names have come off, some have come on. And I did a thing I try not to do. I disregarded 75% of my sources, all of whom felt very strongly that I not add someone to the list. But I've added that person to the list. Hasn't been on the list so far up until now, but I'll explain why. I think there needs to be some rethinking about who the Democrats might nominate. That'll drop later today on YouTube and on the podcast platforms. And we'll be back here in 23 hours with this program. And again, look at the poker faces of these two, Eric and Melissa. They could be shoe ins or also rans. You won't know till tomorrow, but join us at at 9 o' clock tomorrow and we'll unveil the new coast. And very grateful to everybody who's come on over the last several months as we've just tried out different things and very grateful to all of you. So many of you have weighed in either in the chat or directly with me about who you'd like to see and I think many of you will be delighted. How's that, Eric? Thank you, Melissa. Thank you. I'm jumping over to Sirius XM now, rolling into the second hour of the morning meeting there on channel 111. Please join me there. And as the professor said, if you'd like to ask me questions on that program by calling me up, you can at 8334-4634-9683-3446-3496. I'll see you on Sirius XM. I'll see you at 5 o'. Clock. I'll see you on Next up and I'll see you right here tomorrow. And Season seven Episode one. Thank you guys. See you soon.