Trump Says Deal With Iran Could Be Signed This Weekend, While Iran Says No Decision Has Ben Made

Summary

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The Morning Meeting

Podcast: The Morning Meeting
Host: Mark Halperin (with Kevin Walling & Larry O’Connor)
Episode: Trump Says Deal With Iran Could Be Signed This Weekend, While Iran Says No Decision Has Been Made
Date: June 12, 2026

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Episode Overview

The episode centers on the confusion and high-stakes negotiations over a potential US-Iran deal—specifically, President Trump’s claim that an agreement is imminent, contrasted sharply by Iranian officials’ denials. The panel dives into the realities, rhetoric, and international implications of the deal, exploring media coverage, political strategy, pressure points, and fallout for various players. Other topics include Trump’s political standing with independents, upcoming cultural and sporting events at the White House, Chuck Schumer’s underestimated strategies, Hunter Biden’s media ventures, and a forward-looking discussion with listener participation on key races and political futures.

The discussion is lively, skeptical, and often laced with humor, as the hosts debate both substance and spectacle in US politics.

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Key Segments & Discussion Points

1. Is the Iran Deal Real or a Charade?

[00:00–02:12]

• Open speculation about whether President Trump’s confidence is justified or if this is yet another dead-end negotiation.
• “Real until it falls apart.” (Larry O’Connor, [00:36])
• Mark Halperin recounts his initial optimism the previous night, then frustration upon waking to headlines suggesting no deal was finalized.

2. The White House Mood and Media Coverage

[02:13–04:50]

• Conversation about press priorities and why the supposed breakthrough in Iran got buried in the news cycle.
• Light banter on chat comments and “smack” exchanged online among listeners.

3. Trump’s Schedule and the White House Birthday Bash

[04:51–06:46]

• Mark reads out the President’s official schedule, hinting at a potential media blitz, and teases about special guests at the weekend’s giant birthday event.
• “There’s never been anything like this massive professional sporting event right here on the White House lawn. You couldn’t make this up.” (Mark Halperin, [22:35])

4. Congress & Security Issues: FISA 702 and Blockades

[06:47–08:47]

• House and Senate are out, leaving open issues unresolved, notably the expiry of FISA 702 and the Navy blockade on Iran’s oil exports.
• Nostalgia for political commentary shows and the supposed “safety” when Congress adjourns.

5. Details and Doubts Over the Iran Deal

[08:47–17:52]

• Analysis of deal components: nuclear commitments, missile limits, hostage swaps, and possible sanctions relief.
• Review of conflicting messaging: US/Israeli skepticism, Iranian demands, and the subtext of the negotiations.
• “This deal can be judged by a simple test: Does it merely pause the regime, leaving Iran roughly where it’s been since the blockade began, or does it rewind the clock, leaving Tehran better off than before?” (Mark, quoting Noon in Israel, [11:16])
• Deep dive on leverage points—debate about whether economic squeeze or military threat is most powerful.

6. Strategic Tradeoff: Opening the Strait of Hormuz

[13:24–20:45]

• What would a minimal deal look like? Most believe the best realistic outcome is reopening the Strait of Hormuz to oil shipments, possibly without broader progress.
• Disagreement on whether this would be a win for the US or a wasted opportunity to pressure Iran further.
  • “If you could have that deal today knowing that Iran would suddenly start to have a huge windfall ... you would take that deal today?” (Mark Halperin, [15:29])
  • “Man, I think that’s a disaster.” (Mark Halperin, [16:20])
• Larry O’Connor rehashes the sequence of military responses and why reopening the strait does—or does not—represent capitulation.

7. Pressure Points: Iran’s Economy and Oil

[17:52–20:45]

• Discussion about the actual effect of oil sanctions and blockades on Iran’s stability and willingness to negotiate.

8. White House Birthday Party and Political Optics

[22:31–24:36]

• Discussion of the optics and repercussions of Trump’s planned MMA-styled birthday event on the White House South Lawn.
• “He can throw his birthday however he likes. I hope no one actually gets really hurt because this is really intense fighting. I mean, they beat the shit out of each other.” (Kevin Walling, [24:19])

9. Trump’s Faltering Support Among Independents

[24:53–29:33]

• AP analysis shows a sharp decline in Trump’s approval among independents, dropping from 43% to 26% since Election Day 2024.
• “These are the majority makers ... these are the folks that actually matter in some of these districts.” (Kevin Walling, [26:56])
• Discussion turns to political consequences, strategies for regaining support, and the implications for 2026 and beyond.

10. Chuck Schumer: The Underestimated Strategist

[30:02–33:24]

• Schumer’s effectiveness is debated.
• “I think they doubt him and his abilities to their own detriment.” (Kevin Walling, [31:07])
• Contrasts Schumer with Republicans and public perception.

11. Hunter Biden’s Media Tour

[33:24–35:47]

• Hunter Biden is launching a substack, guesting on Gavin Newsom’s podcast, and trying to find new revenue streams.
• “The same reason that Hunter Biden does anything. It’s for money somewhere.” (Larry O’Connor, [34:28])
• Speculation on whether there is any real public appetite for Hunter Biden’s content.

12. Winners & Losers of the Week

[36:38–40:00]

• Winners:
  • Mike Johnson for passing the ICE funding bill ([36:38])
  • European tourists at the World Cup for rediscovering America ([37:00])
  • Graham Platner, surprise Democratic Senate nominee ([37:41])
• Losers:
  • Congressional Democrats (lost annual baseball game) ([38:39])
  • Nancy Mace, soon-to-lose House seat ([39:39])
  • Mike Johnson and GOP leaders for being undermined by Trump ([40:00])

13. Listener Q&A: Political Futures, GOP Strategy

[48:38–57:15]

• “Timothy,” a college student on a merchant marine tour, asks about Rubio, potential future GOP coalitions, and Senate battlegrounds.
• In-depth responses highlight fault lines in GOP's post-Trump era and the importance of matching appeal to both MAGA and suburban/Latino voters.
• “The day after election Day this November, it is game on for the future of the Republican Party.” (Larry O'Connor, [53:07])

14. Pop Culture Minute: Summer Blockbusters

[58:41–61:19]

• Quick review of the most anticipated summer movies: The Odyssey (Christopher Nolan’s Greek epic), Toy Story 5, and Disclosure Day (Spielberg’s alien return).
• Lighthearted banter over show chemistry and fake rumors of co-host departure.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “The president says he has a deal and no one agrees.” (Mark Halperin, [01:45])
• “If the only thing resolved is the strait of Hormuz ... I don’t think there’s going to be anything nuclear about this.” (Kevin Walling, [13:24])
• “Does it merely pause the regime ... or does it rewind the clock, leaving Tehran better off than before? If sanctions are eased and frozen assets unlocked, it’s definitely the latter.” (Mark Halperin, [11:16])
• “We did not engage in the Navy blockade until they shut down the Strait. Now they're going to open the strait, and we're going to lift the blockade.” (Larry O’Connor, [18:44])
• “26% with independents is not a survivable number.” (Mark Halperin, [25:50])
• “There are way too many people who want regime change and will not accept anything short of regime change. The president is trying to thread a needle here.” (Larry O’Connor, [20:58])
• Banter regarding on-air chemistry: “If you think the chemistry between Larry and Kevin is good, wait till you see Larry and Hunter.” (Mark Halperin, [36:01])

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Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment | Topic | Timestamp | |---------|-------|-----------| | 1 | Is the Iran deal real or a charade? | 00:00–02:12 | | 2 | Media coverage/White House mood | 02:13–04:50 | | 3 | Trump’s schedule & birthday event | 04:51–06:46; 22:31–24:36 | | 4 | Congress & FISA702, blockades | 06:47–08:47 | | 5 | Deal specifics & international response | 08:47–17:52 | | 6 | Strait of Hormuz debate | 13:24–20:45 | | 7 | Impact of sanctions on Iran | 17:52–20:45 | | 8 | Decline in Trump’s support with independents | 24:53–29:33 | | 9 | Chuck Schumer strategy | 30:02–33:24 | | 10 | Hunter Biden’s media hustle | 33:24–35:47 | | 11 | Winners & losers | 36:38–40:00 | | 12 | Listener Q&A: GOP’s post-Trump future | 48:38–57:15 | | 13 | Pop Culture Minute: Summer movies | 58:41–61:19 |

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Episode Tone & Style

The conversation is fast, irreverent, and deeply steeped in Beltway—and “insider”—humor, with witty asides, snark, and sharp political analysis throughout. The hosts poke fun at themselves, each other, and their party favorites and foes alike, weaving in news, speculation, and audience interactivity.

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Final Thoughts

• The central takeaway is the deep skepticism—shared by the panel—over both the White House’s portrayal of the Iran talks and the reality behind the public posturing.
• The hosts underscore the fractured state of US politics, both in terms of policy (Iran, security, White House priorities) and party strategy (Trump’s plummeting numbers among independents, the shape of the GOP post-Trump, Schumer’s underestimated influence).
• Recurring themes include mistrust of official statements, the power of leverage, and the unpredictability of political events.
• The episode closes with playful banter and a pop culture segment, reinforcing the signature mix of seriousness and levity that defines the show.

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For listeners who missed the episode:
You’ll come away with a brisk, thorough sense of the latest in the Iran standoff, polling data that could reshape November, and rich color commentary on the strange spectacle that is Washington—plus a forecast of the summer blockbusters to watch.

Transcript

[Mark Halpern]

Percy. Yeah. Okay. Didn't know that. Ladies and gentlemen, we're in the middle of a conversation. Sorry, you interrupted us. The memorandum of understanding is neither a memorandum nor understanding. Discuss. Kevin. I'm just laying down the baseline. Do you think the President's description of where we are that right? Right. Codifying. Dotting eyes, Crossing te's. And there's going to be a deal or it's all. It's all just another charade. Just charade or real? What do you say? One word.

[Kevin Walling]

I think this actually potentially could be one word.

[Larry O'Connor]

Real.

[Mark Halpern]

One word. Real.

[Kevin Walling]

Larry island is neither a road nor an island.

[Mark Halpern]

Exactly. Larry real or charade real until it falls apart. Yeah, okay. That's the right answer. One word. I will say that. Last night on two Way Tonight, I was the most credulous person in the world. I was, like, picking out fonts for the announcement thing and checking flight.

[Kevin Walling]

Flight options.

[Mark Halpern]

For J.D. exactly. For J.D. vance. I don't know. I don't know what got into me. I just. The presence. The President's mood in the Oval Office just seemed dignified and calm, not low energy, as some said. And I went to sleep thinking, well, you know, what are the implications of this? And, you know, he's going to have been proven right, and all the people who questioned him. And Eric Erickson was going to have to write a letter of apology or stand in the corner with a dunce cap and write it a thousand times in the chalkboard. I will never doubt Donald Trump again. And then, and then, and then I wake up and the New York Times has, like, on their. On their homepage, like, way down, like, scroll, scroll, scroll, scroll past stories about, you know, like, an interview with, like, Philip Glass. I mean, just a million things. The President. I'm kidding. There's no. I think he might be dead. The President.

[Kevin Walling]

The President.

[Mark Halpern]

The president says he has a deal and no one agrees. So as the leading proponent for weeks of. Don't listen to what the President says about more bombing. Don't listen to what the President says about a deal. All of a sudden, I just. I lost my mind. Anyway, we'll talk about whether there might be a deal or not. Man. Eric Erickson does not think there's a deal, I'll tell you that. The Israelis do not think there's a deal.

[Larry O'Connor]

When has Eric Erickson ever been wrong?

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah, good point. And we're going to talk about a bunch of other topics, ladies and gentlemen,

[Larry O'Connor]

including

[Mark Halpern]

Chuck Schumer and whether he's being underestimated. The President's birthday The President's relationship with independence and can Hunter Biden make money? These are amongst the many topics that Kevin Walling. Back with us, Larry o'. Connor.

[Larry O'Connor]

Now that David Hockney is dead, Hunter Biden is ready to that space in the art world.

[Mark Halpern]

Hockney's a huge loss. He's younger than I thought he was.

[Larry O'Connor]

Hockney's loss to the art world is Hunter's gain.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah. Anyway, if you're here on the two way platform and want to get in on the conversation, all you got to do. All you got to do is raise your electronic yellowish hand. And if you're watching on X or YouTube, please, a peace, love and understanding presumption of grace extended to all. No smack in the chat. I don't know how many times I have to say it. The level of smack this week, ladies and gentlemen, cannot be measured using calipers. Cannot be measured using normal human understanding. I had to put this.

[Larry O'Connor]

Mostly my fault.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah, I know. You fostered. I put all that.

[Kevin Walling]

You gin them up a little bit.

[Larry O'Connor]

I do, I do. I get them going.

[Mark Halpern]

I put all the smack in my AI assistant and I said, how much smack is this? And it said, mark, it is beyond the capacity of AI to, to quantify the amount of smack that your community has put in the chat. It said, you need to reconsider, Mark. Reverse psychology. So here we go, ladies and gentlemen, today I declare this a, I, I declare this a, a smack full zone, not a smack free zone. Put as much smack in the chat as you want. Say that I'm stupid for not recognizing the voter fraud that denied Spencer Pratt the first slot in the mayoral contest.

[Kevin Walling]

It's a rampant, rampant.

[Larry O'Connor]

Not need any encouragement for that.

[Mark Halpern]

Say Kevin does not need, Kevin does not need to dress so shabbily. Kevin's looks like a hobo.

[Kevin Walling]

He looks like a hobo.

[Mark Halpern]

Bit of a hobo, just all in. Ladies and gentlemen, I want as much smack as possible in the chat. Please, please say that I'm a shameless

[Larry O'Connor]

apologist for the orange man in the White House.

[Mark Halpern]

Exactly. All right, ladies and gentlemen, the president. Two days away.

[Larry O'Connor]

Not you, Kevin. I'm talking to the YouTube chat.

[Mark Halpern]

Yes, two days hobo drink. Two days away from the President's birthday. He's at the White House today participating in executive time right now, watching us and just laughing and saying, boy, those guys are hilarious.

[Kevin Walling]

The big 80s. The big 80s today.

[Mark Halpern]

Big 80s, exactly. We'll get to that. 11 o' clock, he's got a pre tape podcast with the second lady. That's a, that's the president and the second lady doing a podcast together. Or maybe it's just her. Although it's in the oval so it sounds like the two of them. We don't know what that's about. Then he's got some signing time. Close press at 2:30 5:30. Pre taped interview gentlemen. You know what that's who that's with?

[Kevin Walling]

I don't. Is it with Town hall?

[Larry O'Connor]

Not town hall.

[Kevin Walling]

Well but Mark will the chickens. Will JD and Usha's chickens come up in the pre tape podcast with Usha?

[Mark Halpern]

As Larry likes to say, the chickens are coming home to roost. I don't know. Yeah, that's a reference some of you may get.

[Larry O'Connor]

That was Obama's pastor. Yes.

[Mark Halpern]

Yes, Reverend Wright. Anyway, the pre taped interview. I'll just make an educated guess. It's with a Fox News Weekend host. That's my guess. Fox News Weekend.

[Kevin Walling]

Married to a cabinet. Maybe married to a cabinet.

[Mark Halpern]

She just had an interview. It could be Maria. It could be.

[Larry O'Connor]

It does.

[Mark Halpern]

Like you know it could be. It could be Peter. Peter and what's her name? What's her name? Blanket on her name. Jackie maybe. Peter and Jackie, they have a show.

[Kevin Walling]

Maybe also it could also be Shannon Breen on Fox News release their guests for good.

[Mark Halpern]

Interesting.

[Kevin Walling]

Which could be interesting.

[Larry O'Connor]

Couldn't it be Kristen Welker? Didn't they say they were going to do it again?

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah. Too soon. Too soon too. But maybe actually maybe it is. All right. Don't know what the veep is doing. Although his wife doing a photo op with his boss. House and senator are now out. So they're not going to solve any problems in a while for at least

[Kevin Walling]

not that they do. And they do when they hurt.

[Mark Halpern]

Exactly.

[Larry O'Connor]

Can we just pause For a second? FISA702 is still up in the air.

[Mark Halpern]

It expires at midnight. But they went home.

[Larry O'Connor]

How do they go home?

[Mark Halpern]

John McLaughlin used to say. Do you remember Kevin's too young. When John. When Congress. I remember John. John. John McLaughlin. I know. But not this. You don't know this. I'm sure of this. John McLaughlin would say I knew Eleanor.

[Kevin Walling]

Eleanor Cliff was a friend of mine.

[Mark Halpern]

He would say. He would say Eleanor has not been on here in a while. Lori, why has Eleanor not been on lately? We not asked her anyway. John McLoughlin would say. John McLaughlin would say the Congress. Congress is adjourned for two weeks. The Republic is safe again. Because he would always. He would always say that anyway.

[Larry O'Connor]

Lawrence o' Donnell would laugh. That was four. Lawrence o' Donnells ago though, so.

[Mark Halpern]

Yes, exactly. Larry, you're so shrewd, man. Wow. 3:00 Eastern Time. It's the Canadiens versus the Bosnia Herskavinians in Toronto. Is that, is that match at Rod, Is that match at Rogers? Does anybody know? Is that the big indoor stadium at the stadium? No, no.

[Larry O'Connor]

They sit there. There's a, there's an outdoor soccer, outdoor soccer facility. They. Okay, yeah, it's a beautiful venue.

[Mark Halpern]

What is it?

[Larry O'Connor]

So 5.

[Mark Halpern]

What is it? Larry, how do you, Larry, how do you possibly know about a Toronto soccer facility?

[Larry O'Connor]

I looked this up earlier today because I wanted to see what the venue was. Look beautiful. It's a beautiful looking venue, but I don't remember the capacity. I apologize. A preview of the.

[Mark Halpern]

Okay. A Preview of the 2028 presidential election takes place at 9 Eastern tonight when Secretary of State Marco Rubio and California Governor Gavin Newsom sit together at the US World cup opener against Paraguay. Guys, could we lose to Paraguay? I haven't really looked into this. We don't want to lose our.

[Larry O'Connor]

We better can always lose to South American team, but I doubt.

[Mark Halpern]

Okay. And then Gavin Newsom earlier in the day is dropping a banger, a new interview on his podcast. Remember early on when he started the podcast interview, Charlie Kirk and a bunch of other conservatives and liberals lost their minds. Oh my goodness, how could he platform these people? Well, today he's releasing his interview with Hunter Biden on this is Gavin Newsom and we'll look for that. And SpaceX makes its stock market debut today. Promises to dominate coverage on CNBC and to make Elon Musk a trillionaire. Incredible story. Elon Musk. So that's what's going on today. Quick word from a sponsor and then, ladies and gentlemen, we're going to talk about Iran for the upteenth time. Great segment.

[Larry O'Connor]

And it seats 46,000.

[Mark Halpern]

46,000. That's proper. That's good enough. Great segment on CBS Morning this morning with Dina Powell, who was here the other day, President. What is she? Vice president? President of Meta.

[Kevin Walling]

She's president of Meta.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah, yeah. President. They're giving away like 140,000 pair of their glasses to blind veterans so blind veterans can have things read to them and get around. It's incredible video that illustrates how it works. Meta's Meta is doing that. But here's something else Meta is doing. We talked about it the other day. They are helping prepare folks for the jobs, the future that are needed to build new infrastructure. Skilled workers, electricians, fiber technicians, plumbers, welders, and others to build the physical infrastructure that will power economic growth through all these new facilities that they're building. It's called America's Workforce Academy. It's a new initiative META is developing with the National Urban League, the Associated Builders and Contractors, and the cbre. And it's designed to help veterans and young people and others who are looking for career changes, people who participate in this program. We talked about it again the other day. Everything's covered. The training time is covered, the transportation is needed is covered. And then to get the certifications they need, no tuition cost, Nothing. Go to meta.com AmericasWorkForceAcademy to learn more. Again, meta.com Americas Workforce Academy to learn more about this program. Okay, guys, this Iran thing, like I said, I, I just, I don't know why I was so easily fooled. The Iranians have said a few things. If you look at all the statements, they said a few things like, we're looking it over, it's not quite final, but something's encouraging. But then other things not as encouraging at all. And then there's floating around a bunch of Iranian characterizations of the deal that, that is a joke. I mean, the president would be attacked by every Republican in Congress if he signed a deal that has all this money for Iran. So here's some of the things I want to show you. First of all, 105, Barack Ravid, official chronicler of all deals. He cast it as a pretty favorable deal. Iran would make certain commitments on nuclear programs, agree to never acquire a nuclear weapon, agree to resolve the standoff over their Richteranian Israel says that the deal includes stuff about missiles and about terror proxies, which hasn't really come up of late. Here's what Erik Erickson says. Less bullish on the deal is Eric Erickson. He says, headline, the clowning of a President. The president the other day said Iran was playing us. The only one being played is President Trump. The state of war exists between Iran and its neighbors. The ceasefire is a farce. The president has turned into a clown. And here's that's strange because he's always

[Larry O'Connor]

been so supportive of Donald Trump.

[Mark Halpern]

No, he is. When he is 116. This is a newsletter substack that I recommend you get. It's called Noon in Israel, and here's what that guy writes. Less clear is what happens to the billions in Iranian funds frozen overseas. Iran has insisted it must receive some money immediately upon signing any initial deal, while the US has said release would come in tranches based on compliance. Separately, the US And Iran and Qatar have reportedly discussed a mechanism letting Iran access some of its frozen fronts in Qatar for humanitarian purchases. I'm not sure if Qatar is simply trying to make its terrorism support tax deductible. That's sarcasm and funny. But these payments are humanitarian in name only. Just ask Hamas. Money is fungible and the regime still controls imports. So it can either redirect funds from what little it gives its own population, now that is being covered by Qatar, or simply sell the humanitarian goods to its own population and pocket the revenue. This deal can be judged by a simple test. Does it merely pause the regime leaving Iran roughly where it's been since the blockade began, or doesn't rewind the clock, leaving Tehran better off than before if sanctions are eased and frozen assets unlocked? It's definitely the latter. A very senior Israeli official put it to me this morning. The deal is, Kevin, what's the best deal given all we know? What is it? What? Not the ultimate deal, but what is the best MOU you can imagine the Iranians agreeing to and the president agreeing to? What does that look like the best case? What does that look like the best

[Kevin Walling]

case for us or the most realistic case?

[Mark Halpern]

Well, the most. I'm sorry, sorry. Most realistic. Like what's something that you could see actually if the president's right in telling the truth and they come out and say, here's what's in the mou, the vice president's going to sign it. Some Iranian officials are going to sign it. Presumably the Ayatollah signed off on it, by the way, the president said yesterday the Ayatollah has signed off on it. Multiple reports say that's not true. So what's, what's real? What could realistically be announced and there be a deal? Not that it will necessarily.

[Kevin Walling]

Honestly, the only thing realistically. Yeah. Can be around the Strait of Hormuz and the passage of these ships, I don't think. And again, not that. Not that they're truthful in any of this or, you know, hold to their deals. I don't think there's going to be really anything nuclear about this. I was bullish on this happening in Geneva just because we're already sending security personnel overseas with the potential of a vice presidential visit to sign this. That's the only thing indication that this is different than a previous from what we know previously. But I think really only realistically is going to be the straight. In terms of conversation of that, Larry,

[Mark Halpern]

if nothing is resolved on anything, as Kevin just said, and all that happens is the straight Opens, which by the way, I'm deeply skeptical that they could pull that off as there's some folks in the Pentagon. But if that happens, would that be a good thing for America, given that it would allow Iran to make money? Would you be for that? Just open the straight and keep talking.

[Larry O'Connor]

Which is kind of where we were two weeks ago, isn't it?

[Mark Halpern]

You mean that's what was on the table?

[Larry O'Connor]

That was what was on the table. Open the strait. The Navy blockade stays in place.

[Kevin Walling]

Open the effing strait.

[Mark Halpern]

No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

[Larry O'Connor]

And we remove the blockade. Which puts us right to the moment before the blockade began.

[Mark Halpern]

And presumably, and presumably Iran can't make money off of it. So if, if the, if, if what happened was anybody who wanted to go through the strait could go through as before and Iran could start selling oil again. Right.

[Larry O'Connor]

Because they're not going to be remain. But they can still do some deal.

[Mark Halpern]

Well, yeah, well, presumably China would buy their oil. Would that be a good deal for. And then, and then a 60 day commitment to talk about the nuclear and anything else? Yeah, that, that, would that be a good deal?

[Larry O'Connor]

It, it brings us to. Yeah, absolutely. It would be. I mean, it's not a deal. It's a, a move forward toward eventually a deal. And well, but there's trade for commerce.

[Mark Halpern]

But. Well, but there's a huge downside to that, which is the single greatest point of pressure according to leverage.

[Larry O'Connor]

I know leverage. We had this conversation 10 days ago. I know when this was first.

[Mark Halpern]

But I understand if, I'm saying if you could have that deal today knowing that Iran would suddenly start to have a huge windfall of oil and any threat that their oil capacity was going to be destroyed because they had to stop pumping, you would take that deal today.

[Larry O'Connor]

So we started bombing them and it caused a lot of damage and it ruined their navy and it ruined their air Force and it put a giant dent in their missile and drone capability. Their response was to lock down the Strait of Hormuz. And we fought over that for a couple of weeks until finally, about a month later, the president called for a blockade on their ports. And, and that's where we've been ever since then. We did the blockade in response to them shutting down the strait. They open up the strait, we relinquish on the, on the blockade. And we're basically right where we were before they shut down the strait and we're negotiating the nuclear deal. Yes, we take that deal.

[Mark Halpern]

Man, I think that's a disaster. Kevin, this is a highly I disagree

[Larry O'Connor]

with your premise that the only pressure point is the blockade. The pressure point is our Navy and Marines and Air Force staying exactly where they are able to say.

[Mark Halpern]

I didn't say it was the only press. I didn't say it was the only pressure point.

[Larry O'Connor]

You said it was the greatest pressure point.

[Mark Halpern]

Well, I say that because the President and the Secretary of the treasury both said it. Kevin, this story is pretty widely covered overall. Right, Right.

[Larry O'Connor]

But it was in response to the straight being shut down.

[Mark Halpern]

Yes. Kevin, this story gets a lot of coverage. Right. The Iran conflict. Right, Right. Okay, so go back like a month or two. There was countless stories that said, if Iran can't start pumping oil any day now, we all became experts on this. If you stop pumping, the mechanical stuff breaks, you can't start it back up. Right. And Scott Besson said this is going to happen in three days. Then he said it's going to happen in a week. And then there were some stories saying, nah, maybe it'll take a little bit longer. I've not read a single story about that in weeks. Where's that? Because this is what my concern is. If that was at a time. Scott Benson, the President. We are on the precipice of Iran crying uncle. And now it's like, what happened to that? Now we know they've secretly been selling some oil because there's been reporting about that on the black market. Yeah, yeah. But is that no longer a thing? Because if it is a. Because if it is a thing, opening the straight is not good.

[Kevin Walling]

Yeah, agreed. I mean, the incredible thing, too, I think there was video footage. I forget it was on the four screen this morning. I was watching it just with the sound off of downtown Tehran and cars moving and buses going and a beautiful

[Mark Halpern]

sunny day and Backstreet Boys concert.

[Kevin Walling]

Yes. You know, of course, it had that imagery of the two ayatollahs, you know, destroying the west in terms of the murals and stuff like that. But seemingly. And that was video from yesterday, Thursday. Seemingly, life is back to somewhat normal on the streets of the Capitol. And any conversation that we were having about the economy in shambles, it's been certainly decimated to some degree, has fallen by the wayside. And that seemingly, again, is not a pressure point on the regime to figure out some semblance of a deal.

[Mark Halpern]

I find this whole thing confusing. So.

[Larry O'Connor]

And again, maybe I haven't relayed this properly. We did not engage in the Navy blockade until they shut down the Strait. And we said, you can't. We blockaded their blockade right we're going to blockade your ports until you open the strait. Now they're going to open the strait, and we're going to lift the blockade. What's confusing about this, that we're allowing

[Mark Halpern]

Iran to sell oil again. And the greatest pressure on them because they don't believe the president can get away with destroying them completely. The greatest pressure on them is economic pressure. And the economic pressure is twofold. One, they're not making oil revenue in the same amount that they did before, despite selling some in the black market. And their oil capacity was gonna be destroyed because they had no place to store all their assets.

[Kevin Walling]

They had to cap everything and.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah, yeah. So again, I'm just going by what Scott Bassett and the president said. They said, this is the. This is the big thing. This is how we're going to bring them to our knees. This is why time is on our side.

[Kevin Walling]

Remember, we talk. We talked about that ap, that AP story. Your premise ago.

[Larry O'Connor]

Everything that. This is not how we bring them to their knees. This is how we get them to open the straight. You're, you're, you're absolutely changing the premise.

[Mark Halpern]

No, Larry, Larry.

[Larry O'Connor]

Blockade did not start until they. Down the street.

[Mark Halpern]

Literally the wrongest you've ever been on this show. I say with respect, we'll have literally

[Larry O'Connor]

go back and play the tape 100%.

[Mark Halpern]

You could play 100 tapes. I'll be right.

[Larry O'Connor]

We didn't do the blockade until two months into this thing or six weeks into this thing.

[Mark Halpern]

Right after Richard Haass recommended it for a month. They finally said, oh, yeah, we can. We can do response to trying to put economic pressure on them in response

[Larry O'Connor]

to them shutting down the strait. We have always said we're going to keep this blockade until you open the strait.

[Mark Halpern]

You will. If the, if this deal is consummated. And the first step and only step that happens right away is the straight reopens in full and Iran can sell oil. You will rue the day that they did that. You will rue the day.

[Kevin Walling]

I mean, it's also probably one of the reasons why the president.

[Larry O'Connor]

It's not my job to ruin.

[Mark Halpern]

I understand. I didn't mean you.

[Kevin Walling]

I meant people.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah. I meant people who support it. All right, quickly.

[Kevin Walling]

It was so good. The art of the deal.

[Larry O'Connor]

There are way too many people who want regime change and will not accept anything short of regime change. The president is trying to thread a needle here.

[Mark Halpern]

And the people, the many people in Iran or many people in the White House?

[Larry O'Connor]

Both.

[Mark Halpern]

Both. Okay.

[Larry O'Connor]

A whole lot of people in the political commentary yeah. The President said there's regime change. It's a failure.

[Mark Halpern]

The President said he was going to move Jay Clayton. Is that his name? Yeah. As out of being the, the U.S. attorney in New York City to be the head of dni. They're looking to fast track his confirmation process. Still a little bit unclear, people. I hear news reports that say that Pulte is the acting head now. He's not. Tulsi Gabbard still there.

[Larry O'Connor]

He might not even ever get in the chair.

[Mark Halpern]

Well, that's the question. Will he ever. Will he ever get in the chair? Because Democrats are still saying he can. He can't sit in the chair for a day, otherwise they're not going to move forward with, with fisa. So. Well, just yes or no, Kevin. Will he ever be the acting head of dni?

[Kevin Walling]

No.

[Mark Halpern]

No, Larry.

[Larry O'Connor]

Maybe for a week.

[Mark Halpern]

I think they'll let him do it for a day just so he can put it on his resume. But that's it. All right. It's the President's birthday, as we said on Saturday, having this big hoedown, a hula hoo ha. The claw has been built on the South Lawn. Here's a picture. For those of you watching on, on the YouTube or X. Here's the giant thing they built for the, the thing on Sunday. People have sued to try to get them to stop doing this thing. There's never been anything like this massive professional sporting event right here on the, on the White House lawn. You couldn't, you couldn't make this up. Ladies and gentlemen, if you're doing a, a fictional account of Donald Trump's presidency and you wrote it in 2012, someday Donald Trump will be president.

[Kevin Walling]

You asked AI to drop the claw down on the South.

[Mark Halpern]

Exactly. That's what it would look like.

[Kevin Walling]

Picture that.

[Mark Halpern]

That's what that's what it would look like. So lots of people are coming. They've invited a lot of veterans. A lot of the President's friends are going. It's a very tough ticket. Even some friends of the President have said to me, like, I wasn't invited. I really want to go. So it's going to be quite a thing. Larry, is this, what's the deeper meaning of this, if anything, is there, is this a good thing, bad thing?

[Kevin Walling]

Doesn't matter.

[Mark Halpern]

What do you think of this?

[Larry O'Connor]

I think it's a good thing because it's a way of celebrating America. And I think it's kind of a cool deal in Washington, D.C. when we can do stuff like this. And for people who look at that image and get offended. But they weren't offended by Transgender Visibility Day, where you had, you know, topless men with fake breasts running around.

[Kevin Walling]

There was one, and they got kicked out.

[Mark Halpern]

Well, yes, let's not quibble over that. You're right.

[Larry O'Connor]

Only the one. You know, but that one person also showed up in a TikTok video with the President of the United States himself celebrating that day. Again, every president utilizes the facility to celebrate what they love about America and try to raise the visibility.

[Mark Halpern]

Yep.

[Larry O'Connor]

This is the same as Obama having a basketball court and having NBA players shoot hoops with him. But this is just bigger because it's Trump.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah, well, and televised. And, you know, there's commercial profit.

[Kevin Walling]

We've come a long way since horseshoe, and it's 41 horseshoe tournaments on the. On the South.

[Mark Halpern]

Well, I'm sure there's some tax dollars involved because I'm sure the government employees have helped out. Kevin, if I'm ever present, there'll be water balloon flight fights on the South Lawn, and they will be televised. Kevin, what do you think of this? You're. You're usually pretty laid back about Donald Trump doing fun stuff. So is this okay with you?

[Kevin Walling]

It's fine. We'll. We'll see what the re. The reaction is from. From the American people. He can throw his birthday however. However he likes. I think it's just. I hope no one actually gets really hurt because this is. This is really intense fighting.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah.

[Kevin Walling]

I mean, they beat the shit out of each other.

[Mark Halpern]

It is.

[Kevin Walling]

So that visual is not.

[Larry O'Connor]

My wife loves this stuff. I don't get into it. But I, I just want to say the Democrats do run the risk of being the. The. The. The no fun party. The. The, you know, against all of it. Seem like John Lithgow and Footloose, you know, standing there, not wanting the kids to dance. Let them dance.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah, let them dance. Hakeem Jeffries the crap out of each other. Hakeem Jeffries is on the crap out of each other. Hakeem Jeffries is on Morning Joe right now. We'll monitor that. He's talking about Iran. We don't need to. You don't need to take it live. Just turn a clip if he says something interesting, please. Okay, here's a good transition. So no problem with the fight, but the president is having a problem with independence. New Associated Press analysis of the president's standing with independence is pretty grim. Tells a lot of the tale about why so many analysts in both parties believe Republicans could have a very bad day on Election day in November. 113, please. AP headline on the story where Trump has lost support with independence according to an apology NORC polling, Independents have grown increasingly unhappy with President Trump during his second term. Compiled polling shows a steady decline among independents throughout the term. Here's one. Chart 114, please. This is looking at the president's approval rating with Republicans, independents and Democrats at five moments along the way. His approval rating with independence on election day in 24 was 43%. At the end of the first 100 days, it was down to 31. A little bit of a tick up when the one big beautiful bill passed, but within the margin of error, it's now at 20. 26% during the war. So 26% with independence is not a survivable number. And here's another. It shows interesting amongst gender. 115, he's down to. Down both, both men and women. So this goes back to his, his appeal to men during the election. And obviously we've seen a gender gap every presidential election since Reagan. He's gone from 40% approval with male independence down to 29% and a more pronounced drop. He was actually at a higher level with 45.

[Larry O'Connor]

With 45 with the election.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah, yeah. And now. But now down to 24% amongst independent women. Kevin, if you're a political advisor, the president and he saw this data and said, Kevin, what up with this? What would you tell him? Why is this happening and how dangerous is it for him?

[Kevin Walling]

These are, these are the majority makers. They're less ideological. Right. So again, we look through the lens of, you know, he's never going to lose his MAGA base and hasn't. And you've seen that play out in the primaries. And he's never going to get Democratic support, widespread Democratic support. So these are the folks that actually matter in some of these districts. I, I don't know what I would do to advise them. Probably not have a, you know, that women's cap is real. I don't know if a mixed martial arts fight is going to bring them back on Sunday, but I think there are appeals to these audiences that are important and, you know, we just haven't seen them.

[Mark Halpern]

Larry, hold on. Can we dip into Elon Musk, please? He's on CNBC addressing SpaceX employees.

[Larry O'Connor]

Yes, let's suck up to the trillionaire.

[Mark Halpern]

And he, and he looks like, he looks to me like an alien.

[Kevin Walling]

He looks like he's on Mars.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah, he does.

[Kevin Walling]

In a leather jacket.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah, we dip into this. Here we go.

[Larry O'Connor]

He's a trillionaire he can dress however he wants to be clear.

[Mark Halpern]

In fact, I told people this, I said look, we're probably going to fail

[Kevin Walling]

but you know, should give it a

[Mark Halpern]

try because if we don't, if there's not a new company that enters space, we will never be a truly space faring civilization. You know, while the other aerospace companies, they build good rockets and everything, they, they were simply not pursuing the technology that's necessary to make life multi planetary to. All right, I'm already confused now. Now it's time on Sprockets when we dance I will say this guy's, this guy is one of the most interesting monkey. It's one of the most interesting people ever to live. I really do think that. All right, let's move on from Trump. Talk about Chuck Schumer. Chuck Schumer about the numbers for independence.

[Kevin Walling]

Yeah. What's your answer to which political advice? President to get the independence back.

[Mark Halpern]

Yes answer.

[Larry O'Connor]

It is disconcerting, although it defies some of the generic ballot numbers we've seen where it's virtually tied right now. Forbes Harris X poll yesterday showed, which is not good news for Democrats. The only upside and he needs to address it. And he does need to get back to the basics and focus on the issues that appealed to independence and why they voted Republican in the presidential more than they had in the past, things like the border, immigration, things like that. That said, the best thing about these numbers for Republicans is number one, independents do not vote in midterms the way people who are affiliated with their party do. So even if the numbers don't look good, they might not show up on election day. And number two, Democrats keep nominating people like Graham Platner. And look at the independent numbers in Maine right now. And they are cratering right now for Democrats. That's the only upside.

[Mark Halpern]

Who's who's polling has Maine Democrats, the main independents cratering for Democrats.

[Larry O'Connor]

I don't have it. I saw it yesterday. I'll find it for you.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah, okay. I haven't seen that. Raise your hand if you want in the conversation as the market opens in a minute. Dow futures have risen, oil prices have gone down, gas prices down 11 cents over the last week, all because people believe the president's telling the truth when he says there's about to be a deal. Chuck Schumer. You know, my grandfather interned for Chuck Schumer. Really? Yeah, I've known Chuck.

[Larry O'Connor]

Did he teach him how to grill cheeseburgers?

[Mark Halpern]

No. I've known Chuck Schumer a long time. I've been A student of his. You know, he's, he's a, he's a brilliant strategist. He has been historically, and he's been successful in a variety of ways, both politics and government. But he's now trying to convince Capitol Hill reporters he does this on a regular basis. I do know the Baileys also. Yes, Senate Democrats, political fortunes have improved. It didn't happen by accident, Schumer says. And Chuck Schumer, again, media savvy, does this on a regular basis. He'll call in reporters who cover the Hill, and he'll make the case everything's great. And it's true that he recruited candidates in Ohio and in North Carolina and Alaska that give the Democrats a chance. They went from zero chance to take control of the Senate. They now have a chance. And you can attribute that to others. But Schumer really was the driving force behind this. Here's my question, guys. I can't find a single Republican who thinks Chuck Schumer is a formidable political strategist, even though he has been historically so. Kevin, has he, has he lost a step or two because he's older? Have times passed him by because he's too establishment? Why are Republicans not at all afraid of Chuck Schumer?

[Kevin Walling]

I think they, I think they doubt him and his abilities to their own detriment. I think, you know, to your point, he is a political strategist at bare knuckles, you know, dccc, dscc. That experience in terms of recruitment, fundraising, that kind of operation also translated to some legislative successes during the first, you know, two years of the Biden administration, where he navigated a lot of those key votes to get things past the finish line. But more than, you know, a John Thune or John Cornyn or anyone, you know, right now in terms of the leadership of the, on the Republican side, he comes from the campaign side in terms of fundraising, as I said, and candidate recruitment. So, again, I think they doubt him, you know, at their own peril. And you brought up all these successes again, Maine is the only setback necessarily right now in terms of the candidate that he did not want in that race. But Alaska, Montana, Iowa, North Carolina, he's brought in that, that potential for pickups beyond, beyond just those few states that we've talked about.

[Mark Halpern]

Larry. Republicans would mock Mitch McConnell or Democrats would match Mitch McConnell, so would Republicans, but Democrats would mock him. But they knew he was formidable. They knew he was formidable. Why is it that your people on the conservative side just treat Schumer like a joke when he's really not?

[Larry O'Connor]

I think they, I think they respect his fundraising ability. But I think that right now he, he appears to have lost a step when compared to the, the power center of the Democrats. And his messaging is very different than what the actual candidates are saying. Let's see, you know what, Michigan will be the, the test. Michigan will be the test as he has funneled a ton of money behind Weaver. Is it Haley?

[Kevin Walling]

Stevens.

[Mark Halpern]

Stevens.

[Larry O'Connor]

Thank you.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah.

[Larry O'Connor]

And we'll see there. But I don't know if he's great at picking candidates. He's great at raising money. And the reason that Republicans have sort of mock him, because Democrats mock him, his own party mocks him.

[Mark Halpern]

Right now, embedded in this final exit question is two factors. Whether Schumer runs and if he does run, and whether somebody beats him in a primary, he wouldn't lose. The general election exit question, will Chuck Schumer be elected to, reelected to the Senate in 2028. Larry O', Connor, yes or no?

[Larry O'Connor]

Lee Zeldin will win.

[Mark Halpern]

So no. Kevin.

[Kevin Walling]

Yes.

[Mark Halpern]

Will he, Will he be reelected?

[Kevin Walling]

100%.

[Mark Halpern]

The correct answer is no. He does not seek re election. All right. Hunter Biden. Hunter Biden. I don't know why he's going crazy on Twitter. I don't know why he's out there doing all these things. He's starting a substack. I have a theory, which I'll reveal in a moment, but here he is. A little bit of the upcoming interview he's done with the governor of California. This is, ladies and gentlemen, Hunter Biden, joined today by presidential candidate Hunter Biden, 2028. Come on, Hunter. No, no, no, no, no. You got more buzz out there than you got the President of the United States, Donald Trump, talking about your candidacy for President of the United States.

[Kevin Walling]

I had to give you a break for just one day at least.

[Mark Halpern]

Here's the deal. Here's the deal.

[Kevin Walling]

I'll run, but only as your, as your vp because the truth of the matter is the vice president's residence is a lot cooler. It's a lot easier job, too.

[Mark Halpern]

Larry. Why is Hunter doing all this media? Why is he doing substack Twitter and going on podcasts? What's the game here?

[Larry O'Connor]

The same reason that Hunter Biden does anything. It's for money somewhere. He's got a game here and he's going to try to boost his own profile and his own podcast. He's decided to, and he's not wrong. It's a pretty easy way to make money to sit there and give your opinion. I know firsthand. I think the bigger question is why is Gavin Newsom putting Hunter Biden on his podcast? Is Gavin going for clicks? Is, does Gavin worry about downloads or is there something going on?

[Kevin Walling]

100%.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah. Yes, he does, Kevin. If he's doing it for money, which I agree with Larry, that's why he's doing this, because they need money. I keep saying this. Just look at the economics of the Biden family and how they've made money for the kids and grandkids for decades. It's gone now because he's out of office. Kevin, if he's trying to make money this way, will this succeed? Is there going to be demand for the content of Hunter Biden in the marketplace?

[Kevin Walling]

I think there's going to be a little blip of interest right now. And he is seemingly having his moment, but then folks are going to. And he's a smart guy and he's an interesting guy, but then the whole media attention will move on from him hopefully very shortly. He's a narcissist to the extreme. And I, you know, I love his dad, defended his dad for a decade plus on television, so. But the apple has fallen quite far from the tree in terms of the sun.

[Mark Halpern]

All right, the point of this topic was to make a big announcement. Kevin doesn't know this yet, but starting on Monday, Hunter Biden will be replacing Kevin here on the morning. Kevin, we loved having you.

[Kevin Walling]

Thank you know, who are you going

[Larry O'Connor]

to get to replace me?

[Mark Halpern]

Ladies and gentlemen, if you think the chemistry between Ken, if you think the chemistry between Larry and Kevin is good, wait till you see Larry and Hunter. They finish each other.

[Kevin Walling]

The chemistry between Larry and Melissa yesterday

[Mark Halpern]

was a little very good, but nothing compared. We've done rehearsals, we've done secret pilots on soundstages in Staten island, and they finish each other's sentences. It is like Hepburn and Tracy. Stay tuned for Monday. It's a whole new morning meeting like

[Larry O'Connor]

Fred and Ginger got to do.

[Mark Halpern]

Winners and losers of the week, what to look for. And then to your questions, please raise your hand. If you've never raised your hand like Timothy as his aid up, please do Timothy. Thank you for that. We'll call on you probably first, Larry,

[Larry O'Connor]

winner of the week, Mike Johnson again. He got the ICE funding bill through. It was actually kind of a light lift. It didn't cause a lot of drama. ICE is now funded through the Trump presidency at higher levels than it would have been if Democrats hadn't shut down the government and decided not to fight fund. And Mike Johnson once again comes through for the President KEVIN My winner of

[Kevin Walling]

the week are all these tourists coming to America, experiencing America for the first time for the World Cup. They've been. It's been documented across a lot of these different channels. This guy Freddy has a following. He's, he's text. He's posting from Cracker Barrel, from Bass Pro Shops. It's kind of fun to see these folks experience, Experience a country through their eyes for the first time and fall in love with our country that we take for granted. So my winner is all of these at Waffle House. There's been other accounts, too. My winner is all these European tourists that have free notions about this country that are getting a great exposure to us because of this tournament.

[Larry O'Connor]

One is home after the World Cup.

[Mark Halpern]

My. My winner of the week is an offensive narcissist. Graham Platner won his primary overwhelmingly. This guy was nowhere, nowhere on the political radar, you know, a year ago. And now he's the Democratic nominee for one of the most important Senate contests in the country. Say what you will about the guy, and I talk about this in my monologue on NextUp. He understands the electorate. He has a great fingertip feel for why people are so angry and who they're angry at. And he is my winner of the week, 74% of the vote. Larry. Loser of the week.

[Larry O'Connor]

Sorry, I threw up in my mouth a little bit.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah, I hear you.

[Larry O'Connor]

By the way, the YouTube chat thinks that if you get rid of. If you replace Kevin with Hunter, you should replace me with Marjorie Taylor Greene. And now you're talking.

[Mark Halpern]

Give it. Give me a couple more weeks. Give me a couple more weeks. Hunter. Hunter was easy to negotiate with Marjorie Taylor Green.

[Kevin Walling]

The desperation set in even more for mtg.

[Mark Halpern]

She wants a private jet. She wants M and Ms. In the green room. You know, there's a lot to work through. Larry. Loser of the week.

[Larry O'Connor]

Loser of the week. The Democrats in Congress, this isn't technically sports, but it sort of is. They lost again in the Congressional baseball game, who saw Senator Eric Schmidt as the MVP with that great dive in catch. And now Mark Teixeira will be joining the Republican caucus next year. Former Major League Baseball mvp.

[Mark Halpern]

They.

[Larry O'Connor]

They're not going to win for the rest of our lifetimes.

[Mark Halpern]

The Democrats just.

[Larry O'Connor]

They should just.

[Mark Halpern]

Will he pitch? Will he pitch in the game? What will he do?

[Larry O'Connor]

He's not a pitcher. He was a first.

[Mark Halpern]

Well, I know we got stuff.

[Larry O'Connor]

He's our pitcher.

[Mark Halpern]

I know he's not a pitcher, but he's a major league player. He could probably.

[Larry O'Connor]

He could he probably. You're right, he probably could. And Stu, still don't discount the powerhouse

[Kevin Walling]

that is Loretta Sanchez or Linda Sanchez. One of the Santos. You know, she is a rocket ship. Just.

[Larry O'Connor]

She nominated my daughter to the Naval Academy, so I always have a place.

[Mark Halpern]

Loretta's not in Congress anymore, right, Linda?

[Kevin Walling]

Linda, yeah.

[Mark Halpern]

Okay.

[Larry O'Connor]

Loretta was the insane choice against Kamala Harris for Attorney General when the Jungle primary put them both on the ballot.

[Mark Halpern]

Yes, Kevin, Loser of the week.

[Kevin Walling]

My loser of the week is soon to be former Congresswoman Nancy Mace. All eyes on South Carolina. Good riddance to this one. She strong.

[Larry O'Connor]

A lot of lighting.

[Kevin Walling]

Strong. Fifth place. So we won't have Nancy to kick around anymore come January, and that's a good thing for the low country and for this country in general.

[Larry O'Connor]

She's been hilarious, though, on X. I have to say the things that she's.

[Kevin Walling]

She's.

[Larry O'Connor]

She's taking it in stride.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah, she's tart. She's tart on X. Who's the show historian? I need a. I need a ruling from the show story. Has someone's winner of the week ever been the same as someone's loser of the week? Has that ever happened? I don't think it has, but it does today. My losers of the week are Jonathan and Mike Johnson. The president has screwed them again and again this week with Pulte continuing to say he wants, you know, to pass bills they can't pass. He's been told a third reconciliation fight. Yeah, third reconciliation fights. Like, Mr. President, this cannot pass. They'll never be the votes for this. And he continues to talk about stuff that every pollster who talks to John Thune and Mike Johnson says. The president should not talk about the ballroom. The president should not talk about retribution, their lives. I mean, they ran for these jobs thinking, well, you know, co. Equal branch. And I have a great relationship with the President. In Mike Johnson's case, he just screwed them for almost every day this week, and he can't end the war. And all their members want the war to end. Larry, what are you looking for this weekend?

[Larry O'Connor]

I think you're half right, by the way. I do remember there was a time when my loser was Kevin's winner.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah.

[Larry O'Connor]

Virginia. Virginia. Democrats.

[Kevin Walling]

Oh, well, I think we also did James. Referendum.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah. All right. Turns out, rather than my claiming it's never happened, it turns out it happens all the time. Thank you for being show historian, Larry,

[Larry O'Connor]

what am I looking.

[Mark Halpern]

Just to be clear. Just. Just to be clear, Larry, he does screw Thune more than Johnson, but he screwed Johnson Plenty. That's correct.

[Larry O'Connor]

I think the biggest Johnson is. It's the Pulte FISA 702 thing. There. There is a little bit of a problem.

[Mark Halpern]

Oh, my God. Big problem. And gratuitous.

[Larry O'Connor]

I am.

[Mark Halpern]

What are you looking for?

[Larry O'Connor]

I'm looking for all my flights to line up right. I have to fly tonight. So please, American Airlines, don't mess with me. I'm flying tonight to Los Angeles. I'm doing a baby shower for my daughter who is expecting our first grandchild. And then I've got to get on a flight and fly back in time to be able to be right here Monday morning. It's going to be a whirlwind weekend, Larry.

[Mark Halpern]

I hope you make it. And I'm so happy for you and your family. But all I will say is anyone who books a flight in American Airlines has to expect the worst.

[Larry O'Connor]

I love American Airlines.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah.

[Larry O'Connor]

It's just another thing we don't disagree on.

[Kevin Walling]

I'll be lighting.

[Mark Halpern]

Kevin, what are you looking?

[Kevin Walling]

Whipping out my rosary for you to get you there.

[Larry O'Connor]

It's going to be tight.

[Mark Halpern]

It's going to be very tight. Fingers crossed. We hope you make it.

[Kevin Walling]

Best to the all eyes on. All eyes on Geneva this weekend. We'll see if anything actually comes of it. In terms of what the president has teased with the Iranians, that's what I'm watching. I am looking.

[Mark Halpern]

There's a truth social from the president. Read it to you real quick before I tell you what we're looking for this weekend. The terms that Iran leaked out have nothing to do with the terms that were agreed to in writing. What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there's no such thing as dealing in good faith. Amazing. Also, their totally rebuffed drone attack last night against Indian ships leaving the Hormuz Strait is totally unacceptable. They better get their act together and fast. Almost like again, trust them again.

[Kevin Walling]

I'm going to change it. I'm going to be watching if Larry makes it back and forth to la, not Geneva anymore. I'm updating my weekend.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah. Graham Platner on X just wrote this. Being called a thug and the worst person ever to run for office by Donald Trump might be the highest compliment I have ever received. This more why I made it my winner of the week. Here's what I'm looking for this weekend. When the president's gone to the fights in the past, he's been flanked by his relatives, his kids, his grandkids, sometimes by Marco Rubio and Doug Burgam and others. I want to see who gets to sit with him on his birthday at the White House at this event. He carries a huge amount about. This is criminology at its best. Who is sitting proximate to the President on Sunday night?

[Larry O'Connor]

This is sports. You said no sports.

[Mark Halpern]

Well, that wasn't about sports. That was about criminology.

[Kevin Walling]

Name one person besides the first lady that you think will be with them.

[Mark Halpern]

Mr. Marco Rubio.

[Kevin Walling]

Rubio.

[Mark Halpern]

Not JD maybe JD too. JD maybe JD2. But that's not sports player. That's criminology. It's totally different. It's got nothing to do with sports. All right, sponsors and then to your questions, please raise your hand. Shopify is an extraordinary opportunity to use a website, a platform for e commerce, to help get the word out, to help monetize. If you've got something new in your life that you're selling and you want to raise awareness and raise your revenue, take advantage of this extraordinary offer. Shopify has 10% of all E commerce in the United States for good reason. Extraordinary tools on there, AI powered customer support, analytics and sales and everything. Marketing, all of it's on there. And now you can try it out for a dollar a month. Really nothing to lose but a dollar. So go to shopify.com, try your get your trial off for $1 a month to start your Shopify account. And as I said, it's all on there. You'll see how easy it is to use the 24. 7 customer support makes you confident that if something comes up, they'll help you with it. So if you want to turn your hopes and dreams, your vision of how to make more money into money itself, go to shopify.com mark and try it out today. Again, extraordinary offer for members of the two way community. This all in one platform for inventory, payments, analytics and returns for $1 a month.

[Eric Gertler]

From the state house to the courthouse, in the emergency room and in the classroom, Americans are losing trust in their leaders. In a 2025 U.S. news and World Report survey, 85% of Americans said government leaders care more about their own power than the people they serve. 73% are disappointed in healthcare leaders, 72% in business and 68% in education. But there are still leaders worth believing in. I'm Eric Gertler, CEO and executive chairman of U.S. news World Report. This is the Best Leaders podcast sponsored by the Noble Reach Foundation. On this show, we'll go deeper into the stories, challenges and lessons of extraordinary leaders across public service, business, healthcare and education. You can find the best Leaders podcast from U.S. news World Report on YouTube, Apple, Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Mark Halpern]

Lastly, if you're a little bit tired because you've been staying up late watching basketball or waiting for the peace agreement to be announced in full, here's an opportunity for you to try something that is the ultimate guilt free pouch. Delivering focus and mental clarity without caffeine, without nicotine. Go to take ultra.com use the promo code morning for 15% off if you're like me, you've tried you drink Diet Coke, you drink coffee. Too much caffeine to try to stay focused and productive throughout the day. This is different. Invented by neuroscientists to allow you to experience the ability to get through study, work, meetings, whatever it is. Staying sharp throughout the day. Ultra is designed to help you keep stay locked in. Comes in Cool Mint, Wintergreen, Tropical Watermelon, Blue Raz. It's the ultimate guilt free pouch, focus and mental clarity. Zero nicotine and zero caffeine. Try it today for 15% [e-mail] Morning again. Take ultra.com Morning. Tell them you heard about it right here from your Diet Coke addicted guest.

[Matt Ebert]

I started with one shop. No college degree, no big investors. It was just a willingness to work. Over time that one shop turned into a multi billion dollar business called Crash Champions. All the lessons I learned along the way came from the grind and that's what my show podcrash is all about. We have real conversations with people who've built things the hard way. We talk to founders, athletes and blue collar leaders who kept going when things got tough. You'll hear stories of grit, leadership and growth, plus real world lessons you can take back to your team and your life tomorrow.

[Mark Halpern]

When you get momentum, you step on the gas. That's how you get separation from everybody else.

[Kevin Walling]

I was at Harvard Law School.

[Mark Halpern]

I was blah blah blah. I looked up, let me tell you something. There's kids in my neighborhood putting in

[Kevin Walling]

sheetrock that are smarter than you.

[Mark Halpern]

AI is going to disrupt a lot of stuff. It is never going to disrupt physical blue collar trade skill.

[Kevin Walling]

And the guy just looked at me and he said it's bloody impossible. So I asked him this question.

[Eric Gertler]

I said it's impossible.

[Matt Ebert]

Unless that's Podcast with me Matt ebert. Watch on YouTube and listen wherever you get your podcasts.

[Mark Halpern]

Timothy, welcome in. Thank you for being here. Unmute Timothy hi.

[Eric Gertler]

Hi.

[Kevin Walling]

How are you?

[Mark Halpern]

Where do you Live, sir.

[Timothy]

I go to college at Kings Point Merchant Marine Academy, but I'm. I'm a Marine Corps child, so I've lived in seven states now.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah, seven states. Which was. Which was your favorite of the seven?

[Timothy]

Well, I was only in California when I was a baby, but I was born in Monterey, so that's pretty hard to be out.

[Mark Halpern]

Dude, that's a beautiful place. Monterey is beautiful. And how long have you been a member of our community?

[Timothy]

I've been, I think, since you came on. Since right away when you. I'm a big follower of independent media. As someone that. Yeah, kind of grew up with the YouTube era. Yes, sir.

[Mark Halpern]

Well, grateful to you for being part of it. And. And have we been so fortunate to have you raise your hand for the first time today.

[Timothy]

Thank you. Thank you. Well, I'm out here in Greece. I'm actually in my C term at Merchant Marine. One of our four years is out at sea as a cadet on commercial and military.

[Mark Halpern]

Wow. How long. How long. How long you've been at sea?

[Timothy]

This is that, Ben. Since mid March. And then I'll go back to school in July.

[Mark Halpern]

Mid March. Yeah. You don't have scurvy, do they? Give you a lot of lemons and

[Kevin Walling]

limes, a lot of. A lot of fruits and vegetables.

[Mark Halpern]

How often. How often. How often do you get to go on shore?

[Timothy]

We. So being on a military SEAL of command vessel, there's a lot more port time because you're not making money, right? You're loading and offloading cargo. Yeah, all sorts of things like that. So we've been kind of in and out of the eastern med with the war effort for the past three months. We'll get like two or three days in port, maybe a week or two underway.

[Mark Halpern]

My last question to you, and then you can raise whatever you like. Wish. And I'm sure Larry and Kevin have a lot they want to say to you. Ask you, have you been served any drinks by Brandy, who's a fine girl.

[Timothy]

I don't know about anyone named Brandy, but.

[Mark Halpern]

Okay. All right. Just. Just checking. Anyway, that wife.

[Larry O'Connor]

She would be.

[Mark Halpern]

She would be. Good wife. That's just for. That was only for Larry, by the way. All right. Thank you for being here. Tell us. Thank you for being part of this. Timothy, tell us what's on your mind. And again, grateful to you for raising your hand.

[Timothy]

Yeah. So the 20, 26 midterms, obviously you guys have been talking a lot about them. I kind of. Whatever happens, whether it's kind of like the Biden midterms, where Democrats did pretty well, it wasn't a catastrophe, which maybe with Maine and Michigan, they're bad, potentially bad Senate candidates, you, you could see that replicated with good Senate candidates on the GOP side this time around.

[Mark Halpern]

Yes, sir.

[Timothy]

And then obviously in New Hampshire. But kind of the bigger thing I'm watching is the ramifications on the Republican Party post 2026 midterms. And then there's a couple states and cand I'm looking at especially Marco Rubio as a nominee because I think a post Trump gop, you have to look at where the GOP can add where they'll lose because there are just voters that are probably only going to turn out when Donald Trump is on the ballot his die hards and then you're not going to probably keep the Tucker Carlson wing of the gop. But you do need to add voters and that's where Marco Rubio being Latino and his appeal to suburban voters could come in. So I look at like a couple states, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia in particular, but Minnesota, New Hampshire, because Minnesota will probably have another Senate 28 wins in 26 and you have New Hampshire if Sununu loses or Kelly Ayotte wins reelection as governor, then you'll have another Senate seat there. And those are two states where Marco Rubio could probably help down ballot candidates. So I'm looking at two Senate races that are kind of highly contested in the GOP column and this Dan Sullivan and Ashley Henson in Iowa who I think doesn't get talked about a lot being a former broadcast journalist and a wife of a combat veteran, won a swing district in 2020 beating an income Democrat. And what you guys think about two of those people paired along with a guy like Marco Rubio and, and the post Republican Party and the post Trump wave with some of those swing states coming back in full.

[Mark Halpern]

Timothy, you're not you're a knowledgeable guy and that's, that's a really incredible framing. Larry, thoughts on Timothy and you guys? Well, first off, we all you wish

[Larry O'Connor]

when Two Way replaces me and Kevin with Marjorie, Taylor Greene and Hunter, I think Timothy will be replacing Mark.

[Mark Halpern]

Yes.

[Larry O'Connor]

As he is.

[Kevin Walling]

Agreed.

[Mark Halpern]

We want to roll them out in sequence.

[Larry O'Connor]

But yeah, it's probably good. I think it's great analysis of what's happening here. And you're very, very right. The day after election Day this November, it is game on for the future of the Republican Party. And yes, Republicans need to figure out a way to thread that needle of keeping Trump's policies and keeping the Trump appeal going without having Trump on the ticket. And the two schools of thought right now is what you voiced, which is we need to have a Marco Rubio type who can open up the party and bring more people in, like, as you described. The other school of thought is we need sort of a non trumpy version of Trump, which for lack of a better candidate is J.D. vance right now. And that's gonna be the tug of war, that's gonna be the fight. And it's why you see Marco Rubio acting a little Trumpier when he's dealing with the media and when he's dealing with crowds. Now, how the Senate races sort of set up that scenario and set up that discussion, that's going to be a big tell, you know, who wins in Iowa, what kind of candidate will win, or whether we win in Ohio without any problem, whether we, and I think we have our best chance of winning Michigan than we've had in over a decade. Those senators and the victors in those states are definitely going to be a part of that conversation right now. In D.C. they're leaning more toward the Rubio idea of opening up the party and trying to appeal in more, in more demographic areas that they want to appeal. They think they've got a foot in the door. And that, that said, the map is going to be a little bit different going into 2028. And that's, that's another problem. The, the battleground states that we've seen right now might not be the same battleground states that you see in 2028. And they're, they're keeping an eye on that as well. I hope I've helped. But honestly, you answered almost all of your questions with your analysis.

[Kevin Walling]

You did, Kevin, Timothy, all great questions. You're getting a lot of love in the chat, I hope, you know, for the, for you and for the Merchant Marines, which is incredibly important work that you do that gets kind of flies under the radar often, but is incredibly important. So thank you for doing that. I will say it is a question to, you know, come after the midterms, what the president does for those final two years in terms of how he also hands off, you know, the administration, who he, the, the nomination, who he appoints and annoyance, I think is going to be anyone's guess. And obviously we're seeing that play out in real time. You've also highlighted a few key states. Minnesota was the closest state that Kamala won on our side. New Hampshire is always interesting and they have that independent streak with Kelly Ayotte, as you mentioned, as well. Those two would be special elections, obviously, if those senators don't fulfill the rest of their terms and then would be on cycle 4:28. But again, I think that the X factor in all of this is what does the President do? How does he stay relevant for these last two years? Because again, he needs to fuel that ego. When does he anoint and what are the coalitions then that shift behind his nominee? And where did the Democrats go? And to the point where Rubio would be a very attractive candidate that can appeal to a lot of other different voters. What do the Democrats do on my side in terms of trying to do the same thing? And you know, who do we appeal to? The populist. Right, you know, with our nominee and get some of those Trump folks to your point, that aren't tied necessarily to the Republican Party, but more tied to MAGA and populism. Is there a candidate that appeals to those folks on our side? And do we see some of the middle as part of that? So certainly interesting things that we will all be watching and talking about. And, and thank you for raising your hand.

[Larry O'Connor]

And if I could just add real fast, because you mentioned the media, the, the Tucker Carlson part of it, there's two different questions. Do you appeal to Tucker Carlson or do you appeal to Tucker Carlson's audience? You gotta get to their audience. But I don't know of any Republican, even J.D. vance, who really wants to cozy up to Tucker at this moment.

[Mark Halpern]

Timothy, thank you. Very grateful to you. Please come back and thank you.

[Kevin Walling]

Go Merchant Marine.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah. Incredible organization. So we're waiting to see if the President puts more on truth social. And obviously, even if this goes as smoothly as the President suggested yesterday, in hopes there can be some bumps here because, because even if the people who call the shots in Iran want a deal, there are people who in Iran who won't want to make a deal, who have access to the Internet and the capacity to put out messages. So this is going to be, it's going to be bumpy. I am going to stay to the end of the program because although I'll be on SiriusXM at 10 o', clock, I don't need to get there quite as early as usual. But I want to see how it goes when I'm not here. So, Larry, I throw it over to you, even though I'm sitting right here watching, I thought that I'll try to stay quiet. I'll try to stay quiet.

[Larry O'Connor]

I thought that was a body of water behind you. And now I'm seeing airplanes going back and Forth. And.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah, it's a tarmac.

[Kevin Walling]

An undisclosed location.

[Mark Halpern]

Undisclosed location. I can say I'm headed south. Larry, over to you guys and thank you for a great week. And I'll only. I'll only talk if you say something that's so egregiously ridiculous that I feel the need to jump back in.

[Larry O'Connor]

So we're acting like Mark is not here.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah. Do what you do. And I'm not here. I don't normally get to see it.

[Kevin Walling]

Let's put him on mute if we. Oh, he muted himself. All right, Kevin, can we. Every Friday, we welcome, you know, our favorite star here for a pop culture minute that's educational, entertaining, and interesting.

[Larry O'Connor]

This was supposed to be the pop culture minute, and it's turned into, like,

[Haley]

you know, turned into a couple minutes. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Kevin Walling]

So let's hope you. As much as we want. Haley, take it away.

[Haley]

So we're going to do some blockbuster movies of the summer, guys.

[Kevin Walling]

Oh, I love this.

[Haley]

I picked three for us. First one is, of course, the most exciting. This is one I'm most excited for. It's the Odyssey. This is coming out in August. We have a crazy cast. It's the first time Christopher Nolan is doing a Greek myth. I can't wait. Apparently he's using some kind of IMAX technology. Never been done before. Cast includes obviously Matt Damon as Odysseus, Tom Holland, Zendaya and Hathaway, Charlize Theron, Robert Pattinson. Just name the star. They're basically in this one. And of course, we also have Toy Story 5, which is the next installment. Hasn't been back since 2019. We also have our girl Taylor, who kind of surprised everybody and made an original song for this movie. So this is probably going to be a really, really good one. And of course, the last one we have is the very highly anticipated Disclosure Day. Steven Spielberg returns to Alien and UFO storytelling. This is not on my radar because I am not a big sci fi girl, but I'm sure many, many people on here would love to see this movie. So which one are you guys most excited for, Kevin?

[Kevin Walling]

I'm excited for the Odyssey. Just in terms of that cast, that crew, Christopher Nolan. It's going to be epic. You know, I watched, like, Tom Holland with. With Amy Poehler talking about it. I think it's just going to be obviously epic and very excited for that.

[Larry O'Connor]

Yeah. Of those three, probably Odyssey, just because Christopher Nolan has never let me down. He's a great filmmaker. Although, I mean, honestly, the one movie I'm really looking forward to is Young Washington. There's a new biopic of George Washington's early years that is going to come out on Independence Day.

[Haley]

And it looks like there's also a bunch of other ones. There's Spider man coming out. I mean, we have a lot of big movies this year. Scary Movie 6, if anyone remembers those. That one's coming back, too.

[Larry O'Connor]

Thrilled that you focused on three movies coming up instead of looking backwards at the Tony Awards last weekend, Haley, because I know you like that sort of thing.

[Haley]

I said I'd give you guys a break with the awards, so let's do the movie.

[Kevin Walling]

It looks like we have a Mark Halpern with his hand raised. Should we bring Mark into the conversation?

[Larry O'Connor]

First time, tell us who you are

[Kevin Walling]

and where you're from for people who. Are you excited? What movie?

[Mark Halpern]

Are you excited? I'm a little nervous, but I'll do my best. I'm surprised you didn't show a clip of Taylor singing with Randy Newman. I'm wondering why you didn't show it. And. And also, is Kevin really leaving the show? Because if he is, I'd be sad.

[Larry O'Connor]

Thank you, Mark. You speak for tens of millions.

[Kevin Walling]

You speak for tens of millions.

[Haley]

My line, Larry.

[Larry O'Connor]

Oh, I'm sorry, Haley.

[Kevin Walling]

I'm not going anywhere. Despite our best attempts of getting Hunter to sign a deal. So Kevin show is saved. What? I'm sorry. I'm sorry, Larry.

[Larry O'Connor]

He said, I love you.

[Kevin Walling]

There we go.

[Mark Halpern]

Why was.

[Larry O'Connor]

Why were you so upset? Kevin got all butthurt because I said, melissa, Melissa guess.

[Kevin Walling]

And I love Melissa. She guesses for one time.

[Larry O'Connor]

Apparently not. Apparently you're a little jealous.

[Kevin Walling]

You're like, oh, I just. I just love you. I just love you. So I'm like, what the hell is going on here?

[Larry O'Connor]

I believe on Katie Pavwich's news nation show, ironically entitled Katie Pavwich Tonight, I actually said, I love my brother Kevin Walling for saying that. But do you remember? Do I need to play back the tape? Why am I always missing?

[Mark Halpern]

It was obviously sarcastic. That's why Kevin discounts.

[Haley]

Yeah, I speak for the community and say, either Kevin or Larry leaves, we riot.

[Kevin Walling]

Oh, there you go. Grab your pitchfork, Haley. We're going.

[Mark Halpern]

Love you guys.

[Larry O'Connor]

That's right. They've been through turmoil, Mark.

[Kevin Walling]

Have a great weekend.

[Larry O'Connor]

All right? And I don't have. Do we have anything to plug coming up?

[Kevin Walling]

We do. I have.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah. Two Way tonight. You got to plug my guest on two way tonight.

[Larry O'Connor]

It didn't get texted to me, so

[Mark Halpern]

it's special time, 4pm today. We're live on the platform and our guests include Kevin Walling.

[Kevin Walling]

And Kevin Walling.

[Timothy]

Oh, man.

[Kevin Walling]

Kevin's Kevin's brilliant Republican husband, Alex Stroman.

[Mark Halpern]

Yes. The nonsense.

[Kevin Walling]

The mouth. The mouth of the South.

[Mark Halpern]

Not since the Mary Madeline James Carville book All's Fair has there been such a pairing. Please join me live on the two way platform at 4pm this afternoon, special time. And then streaming on two way at 5 o'. Clock. We're going to talk about South Carolina and all manner of things.

[Larry O'Connor]

And Nancy Mays.

[Mark Halpern]

And Nancy Mays.

[Kevin Walling]

You won't want to miss out on that. It's going to be a great conversation. Everybody have a great day.

[Larry O'Connor]

Wish me luck on my flights. Bye, y'.

[Mark Halpern]

All. Sam.