Trump Vows "Lethal Prosecution and Destruction" if Iran Won't Comply With the "Real" Ceasefire Deal

Summary

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The Morning Meeting – Podcast Summary

Episode: Trump Vows "Lethal Prosecution and Destruction" if Iran Won't Comply With the "Real" Ceasefire Deal
Date: April 9, 2026
Host: Mark Halperin (2WAY) with co-hosts Larry O'Connor and Kevin Walling

Overview

This fast-paced episode of The Morning Meeting explores the escalating tension and diplomatic uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran-Israel-Lebanon crisis. The panel dissects the faltering ceasefire attempts, the critical state of negotiations (with a focus on whether talks will actually occur in Islamabad), and the strategic interests at play in the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon. The discussion pivots between foreign policy, the credibility of "ceasefire deals," the on-the-ground implications for the U.S. military, and the potential domestic political backlash, especially in an American election year.
Listeners are given a candid, real-time sense of the high-level strategic debates, with sharp exchanges, skepticism about diplomatic prospects, and illustrative, sometimes dark humor.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Will U.S.-Iran Negotiations Happen? (00:03–01:09, 07:30–13:50)

• Will Islamabad talks take place?
  • Panel split:
    • Kevin Walling is initially optimistic: "Yes." (00:37)
    • Larry O'Connor skeptical. (00:41)
    • Halperin: Reluctantly sides with "probably not." (00:43)
• Preconditions unclear, coordination suspects:
  • Larry highlights a core problem: "Who exactly are they going to be talking to?... If they can't back it up, there's chaos in that country right now." (12:18)
  • Panel converges toward doubt—preconditions (Lebanon, opening the Strait, nuclear enrichment) may be insurmountable before face-to-face talks.

2. The "Ceasefire Deal" and Conflicting Demands (08:00–11:00)

• Ceasefire’s murky enforcement:
  • Israel continuing operations in Lebanon despite U.S. assurances, with Bibi Netanyahu vowing ongoing strikes against Hezbollah: "Our message is clear. Whoever acts against Israeli civilians will be struck..." (08:04)
  • Iran insists Lebanon/Hezbollah must be included in ceasefire. U.S. sees Iran as responsible if Hezbollah acts.
• Iran’s official stance:
  • Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister (09:37): "I hope that we can proceed to go to Pakistan...and this is the agenda that we are working on." (09:37)

3. The Strait of Hormuz: Leverage, Economics & Military Risk (10:22–17:48)

• Financial world’s focus: The Strait is the “only” linchpin to global markets, regardless of Iran’s nuclear posture.
• No military victory without massive cost:
  • Larry: "We can open the strait and defeat Iran? Yes! It will cost a lot. It will be carnage." (14:31)
  • Mark: "...we don’t have a great military solution to opening the strait." (16:42)
• Iran's leverage:
  • "This is the greatest source of leverage Iran has..." (16:42)
  • Panel doubts a sustainable “deal” can be made (without giving Iran major concessions, e.g., on nuclear issues or economic aid).

4. Iran's Nuclear Program: Non-Negotiable? (11:01, 23:01–26:42)

• No evidence Iran will give up nuclear ambitions.
  • Mark: "It seems to me he’s pretty clear that he will not end this conflict with Iran capable of building a nuclear weapon." (23:58)
  • Kevin: American public would not accept a deal that leaves Iran’s nuclear capability intact. (24:50)
• Hope for internal regime change:
  • Reuters cited: Even as Iran appears emboldened, "...it faces mounting internal problems that might ultimately pose a greater threat... than Israeli or US bombs." (26:46)

5. U.S. Strategy: Wait for Implosion vs. Escalate (26:00–30:51)

• Starve the regime or attack?
  • Panel explores two options: Wait for economic collapse (Reuters) or risk a wider war.
  • Mark worries about helping Iran recover economically: "Perhaps their biggest weakness is they can't run the economy." (28:12)
  • Larry: White House’s playbook is “hit hard, offer help if you surrender,” reflecting Trump’s worldview. (29:13)

6. Tripwires for War & Escalation (30:51–33:23)

• What could reignite war?
  • Kevin: "I think the strait is the whole question..." (30:51)
  • Larry: Talks may collapse due to loss of faith in Iranian negotiation partners’ authority, not just intransigence. (31:50)
  • "We're going to finish this job." (32:29)

7. Impacts on U.S.-Israel Relations (18:50–22:16, 39:11–42:44)

• Tension over military operations:
  • U.S. and Israel remain closely aligned, but with diverging interests—especially regarding Lebanon.
  • Larry: Netanyahu will strike enemies as needed, regardless of consequences. (21:55)
• Ceasefire “10-point list” confusion:
  • Ongoing debate over whether U.S./Iranian agreed terms are different from what’s been published.
  • Mark: "If there’s a secret list for the sake of diplomacy, good, keep it secret..." (22:16)

8. Domestic Political Fallout (34:02–43:41)

• NATO relations:
  • Likely status quo, but lingering anger within Trump administration over lack of NATO support and base access. (34:02–35:12)
• Midterm election impact:
  • Conventional wisdom is that House GOP likely loses majority regardless of Iran. Senate considered safe for now, with economic issues likely to drive the outcome. (35:41–37:52)
• 2028 Democratic hopefuls (38:23–43:41):
  • Ro Khanna, Josh Shapiro discussed as potential nominees. Shapiro praised for bipartisan appeal and pragmatic energy policy (especially pulling PA from greenhouse gas compact). (43:02)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Diplomacy’s Limits:
  • Larry O’Connor [12:18]: "Who exactly are they going to be talking to? ...If they can't back it up, there's chaos in that country right now."
• On the Strait of Hormuz:
  • Larry O’Connor [14:31]: “Can we open the strait and defeat Iran? Yes. It will cost a lot. It will be carnage.”
• On Iran's Leverage:
  • Mark Halperin [16:42]: "Because this is the greatest source of leverage Iran has. And they can cite anything they want... There’s nothing we can do."
• On the US Public’s Expectations:
  • Kevin Walling [24:50]: "The overwhelming majority support taking out the Iran nuclear program. If that's not part of the solution here, I think the president has even more of a problem."
• On Waiting Out Iran:
  • Mark Halperin (paraphrasing Reuters) [26:46]: "[Iran] faces mounting internal problems that might ultimately pose a greater threat to the Islamic Republic than Israeli or US Bombs."
  • Larry [29:13]: “This is very much the pattern—we hit them hard and then we say, listen, we can help you out of this. And by the way, you can all make some money out of this.”
• On Conditions to Reignite War:
  • Donald Trump on Truth Social (read aloud) [30:35]: “Everything...will remain in place in and around Iran until such time as the real agreement reached is fully complied with. If for any other reason it is not...then the shooting starts bigger and better and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.”
• On U.S.-Israel Divergence:
  • Kevin Walling [20:39]: "When does this path start to diverge with US Goals and Israeli goals...? I doubt Bibi will ever really telegraph a massive break with the United States."
  • Larry O’Connor [21:55]: "He’s demonstrated that...if he has a clear kill shot on an enemy...he's going to take that shot and deal with the consequences."
• On Public Attitudes toward Iran:
  • Audience Q&A (Nadine) [45:21–47:38]: “I don't know how you answer this without a massive war and which could make things even worse...”
• On Parallels to WWII:
  • Croft [47:57–49:27]: "If that Imperial Guard won't surrender, I just can't see anything other than...how does this end other than it's just going to be ongoing?"
• On Moral Fog of War:
  • Aaron Patrick [52:10–55:42]: “It seems pretty evil. And like, I saw the NPR report that they were like striking Red Cross medics and stuff...I guess I'm just curious. You guys justify the Lebanon stuff?”

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Timestamps For Key Segments

• Ceasefire/Negotiation Odds: 00:03–01:09; 07:30–13:50
• Lebanon/Hezbollah Issue: 08:00–09:37
• Iranian View of Ceasefire: 09:37–10:22
• Strait of Hormuz Debate: 10:22–17:48
• Nuclear Ambitions: 11:01; 23:01–26:42
• Domestic Political Fallout: 34:02–37:52; 38:23–43:41
• Audience Q&A (Nadine): 45:21–47:38
• Audience Q&A (Croft): 47:44–50:58
• Audience Q&A (Aaron Patrick): 52:10–55:42

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Tone and Style

• The episode combines sharp analysis, wry skepticism, and occasional dark humor, staying true to each speaker's voice.
• Banter, gentle jabs, and references to the day’s personalities (Trump, Netanyahu, Bibi, Ro Khanna, Josh Shapiro) keep the episode brisk and engaging.
• While diplomatic prospects are viewed with suspicion, all panelists treat the stakes—war and peace in the Middle East, and the fates of millions—with gravity.

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Bottom Line

This episode offers a densely packed, unsparingly candid analysis of the day’s most dangerous global standoff. The panel zeroes in on why a real, lasting ceasefire may be unreachable given irreconcilable demands, chaos within Iran, and the implacable leverage of the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. options narrow to either waiting out Iran’s economic collapse or facing the risks of renewed, possibly expanded warfare—with profound consequences for politics at home and alliances abroad.

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For the most complete political picture and conversation on tomorrow’s key headlines, this episode is essential listening.

Transcript

[Larry O'Connor]

Foreign.

[Mark Halperin]

Welcome to the morning meeting. In the midst of a fair amount of chaos about what's going on regarding the ceasefire, we'll run through it all and tell you the best as we can where things stand at this hour. Three hotspots remain. Lebanon slash Israel, the Strait, and then Islamabad. And whether the negotiations will take place. Gentlemen, just, just to warm up the pipes, will there be by Saturday face to face negotiations in Islamabad, yes or no? Kevin Walling?

[Kevin Walling]

Yes.

[Mark Halperin]

Yes. Larry o'? Connor?

[Larry O'Connor]

No. No, I'm skeptical.

[Mark Halperin]

No, I'm breaking the tie and saying I don't know, but probably not. I don't think so, but we'll see.

[Kevin Walling]

Lebanon gonna be the issue, Mark, in

[Mark Halperin]

terms of the, the straight in the straight in Lebanon and, and the fact that the US side's going to remember that the Iranians aren't trustworthy. So why fly halfway across the world to negotiate with a bunch of liars? I think that's.

[Larry O'Connor]

And I think part of this process is to determine, you know, how much we don't. Well, we'll get into it.

[Mark Halperin]

Hold on. Standby, stand by. Because we want to get all this in here and we want to get you in, if you're here in the two way platform, you want to be part of the conversation, we'd love to have you raise your hand. As we said yesterday, you don't have to have talked before to talk for the first time. Everybody raises their hand the first time by definition. So if you'd like to be on the conversation, raise your hand. We'll talk a lot about Iran, but also some political stuff we'll get to. And if you're watching on x or on YouTube, please, please, please. Although we allowed smack in the chat yesterday, the moratorium's back on. No smack in the chat. Extend the presumption of grace to all. Even if you hear something you don't like, there's no reason.

[Kevin Walling]

Everyone's very sweet. Everyone's very sweet so far in the

[Mark Halperin]

chat, so far in this chat. But man, if you're watching the YouTube chat, you're going to see just poison, venomous poison.

[Larry O'Connor]

I stay on top of the YouTube chat. Don't you worry. I keep everyone in line.

[Mark Halperin]

Here's the daybook, ladies and gentlemen. Here's the daybook of what's going on today. The President has a very full schedule, but as of this hour, once again, nothing open press, although it does not preclude him from dialing up any reporter he wants. Here's the full slate. Eight o', clock executive time, 11:00am intelligence briefing, 1:30. Policy meeting in the Oval. Two o', clock, policy meeting in the Oval. Four o', clock, a roundtable on Maha in the Roosevelt Room that's inexplicably closed. Press 5 o', clock, another policy meeting in the Oval, and 6 o', clock, a policy meeting in the Oval. Don't know what the Vice President's doing, but presumably he's doing what all of us do when you've got a quick turnaround between trips. He's coming home, doing laundry, making sure he replaces the toothpaste and deodorant that he used up while he was in. Where was he in Europe and maybe headed out back in Hungary.

[Kevin Walling]

You go through a lot of children in Hungary.

[Mark Halperin]

House and Senator out. But there's a pro forma session in the House in which Democrats are going to attempt to get unanimous consent for a war powers resolution. They'll fail, but they're going to try again next week when the House is back and we'll see where things stand. But there's certainly a lot of House Republicans who don't much like the war. Speaker Johnson, a two day campaign swimming through Pennsylvania doing fundraisers for his four endangered incumbents, aka Ministers MacKenzie, Fitzpatrick, Bresnan and Perry. In New York, Al Sharpton continues to host Democratic potential presidential candidates as well today as Hakeem Jeffries. That's today. Wes Moore and J.B. pritzker. Tomorrow, Kamala Harris is expected down in New Orleans, the DNC Resolutions Committee is considering 32 resolutions including a couple related to APAC and Israel that are spicy hot. It's like a good jambalaya. Governor Shapiro, having been with Reverend Sharpton yesterday in this hour is unveiling a America 250 Pennsylvania headliner concert series five city free celebration in May and June, the Dow. Dow futures. DA Futures down. Is that right? Am I right about that? Dow futures are down. Somebody help me here. I think Dow futures look, they are. Yeah. Okay. Dow futures are down. Oil's. Oil's up. And boy. All right. Lot going on here.

[Kevin Walling]

Back above $98 a barrel.

[Bob]

Yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

And the inflation numbers were kind of at. Okay, let's get a quick sponsor in and then we're going to go to the question of whether these talks are actually going to take place. Here it is. Dow futures are down. Brent crude is at 98. Jobless claims to 9, 219,000. Personal income down. GDP was just barely up. Okay. Cozy earth once again, ladies and gentlemen. I try to sell the cozy Earth products for humans as they were intended. But the dogs trump the humans. Here's our latest picture of a pup enjoying not just the bubble cuddle blanket, but the sheets. Paul, put that up and Kevin, describe what we're seeing here. For those listening on the audio only version.

[Kevin Walling]

Just the greatest sense of comfort and warmth that any animal has ever experienced in their life.

[Mark Halperin]

It's a fully tucked in dog on

[Kevin Walling]

the Bubble Cuddle puppets got a pillow under under him or her looking very comfortable.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, it's almost like AI imagine the paws are going.

[Kevin Walling]

It's real good that pup is running through an open field because yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

Anyway go to cozyearth.com buy a bubble cuddle blanket for your dog or because of Mother's Day, buy one for Mom. All the Cozy Earth products available to the community here. 20% off. Go to cozyearth.com use the promo code morning and if you want to get stuff for maybe you got a dog who is a mom and you could buy that dog a present or a human mom. Celebrate Mother's Day Robes and slippers the Bubble Cuddle blanket comes in different sizes. The slippers are a special kind of comfort. The robes are will wrap all your moms in softness and thoughtful detail with spacious pockets, adjustable ties, cozy silhouette makes every moment feel intentional. Make this Mother's Day a Cozy Earth Mother's Day for you and the moms in your life. Go to cozyearth.com promo code morning for 20% off. Another post purchase survey say you love dogs and you heard about it here on the morning meeting.

[Matt Ebert]

I started with one shop. No college degree, no big investors. It was just a willingness to work. Over time, that one shop turned into a multibillion dollar business called Crash Champions. All the lessons I learned along the way came from the grind. And that's what my show Pod Crash is all about. We have real conversations with people who've built things the hard way. We talk to founders, athletes and blue collar leaders who kept going when things got tough. You'll hear stories of grit, leadership and growth. Plus real world lessons you can take back to your team and your life tomorrow.

[Mark Halperin]

When you get momentum, you step on the gas. That's how you get separation from everybody else. I was at Harvard Law School.

[Bob]

I was blah blah blah.

[Mark Halperin]

I looked up, let me tell you something. There's kids in my neighborhood putting in sheetrock that is smarter than you. AI is going to disrupt a lot of stuff. It is never going to disrupt physical blue collar trade skill.

[Kevin Walling]

And the guy just looked at me

[Mark Halperin]

and he said it's bloody impossible. So I asked him this question I said it's impossible.

[Matt Ebert]

Unless that's. Podcast with me, Matt ebert, watch on YouTube and listen wherever you get your podcasts.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, the talks. Here's why the talks are in doubt, ladies and gentlemen, Lebanon. The vice president suggested. Well, it's not part of the agreement, but Israel's probably going to lay off Lebanon. Well, just a moment ago, here's what the prime Minister of Israel tweeted. Doesn't look like he's laying off Lebanon. Ladies and gentlemen, here's the tweet from Bibi Netanyahu within the last hour, I believe that's 128 or no, 121, please.

[Larry O'Connor]

Foreign.

[Mark Halperin]

We continue to strike Hezbollah with force, precision and determination. In Beirut. We eliminated so and so. Our message is clear. Whoever acts against Israeli civilians will be struck. We will continue to strike Hezbollah wherever required. Someone this morning sent me a list of all the attacks Hezbollah has launched this morning against Israel. So there's two way attacks going on and the Iranians. The Iranians, it's a little bit silly for the Iranians to say Hezbollah is included, Lebanon is included. Here's, here's what an Israeli, I believe journalist said 113 about the strikes. The insistence of Lebanon be included in the US Iranian ceasefire, trumpeted by Iran itself and echoed by many, including supposedly serious actors, strikes me as interesting. Implicit in the argument is the recognition that Hezbollah is nothing more than an armed tentacle of the Iranian regime, which is of course true. If Lebanon is to be included in the ceasefire, then surely every missile attack by Hezbollah on Israel which have not stopped at all and which continue to threaten the residents of northern Israel today should be considered a breach to the ceasefire by Iran. So Iran's saying, well, the other side is breaching the ceasefire. In fact, Hezbollah is breaching the ceasefire. And if, and if Iran says they're part of the ceasefire, then they shouldn't be firing either. Larry, I know you applaud that. Here is, here is the Iranian deputy foreign minister in a television interview talking about the, the ceasefire under threat number 106, please.

[Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister]

Last night was a very critical night because we had no option just to respond to these new atrocities. Then there were few back and forth and few messages through Pakistanis. And we hope that, you know, American could control its ally and this time honor their words, actually, and being committed to what we agreed. So at this moment that I'm talking, I hope that we can proceed to go to Pakistan. And this is, this is the program that, and this is the agenda that we are working on as My understanding the American side also is working on that. So we hope that we can meet soon in Pakistan to.

[Mark Halperin]

Okay, so that's one issue we'll get to is what's going to happen with Lebanon. Second issue is the strait. If you work in the financial world, you really don't care if Iran has a nuclear weapon. Apparently all you care about is the strait. Joe Kernan this morning saying it's just about the straight. 118 please.

[Larry O'Connor]

Action by.

[Kevin Walling]

I mean here's the Journal. Today, Trump declares a premature victory.

[Mark Halperin]

Iran is still a threat.

[Kevin Walling]

The strait may retain enriched rate.

[Mark Halperin]

I know everybody.

[Kevin Walling]

No, I'm just saying everybody knows the straight. Who doesn't know that it's about the strait.

[Larry O'Connor]

Why do you have to say it's about the straight?

[Mark Halperin]

Partially about the straight. Iran seems to have no intention even during this two week period of opening the strait. Iran seems to have tension of restoring the pre war consensus that there shouldn't be money being charged. The president poured fuel on that fire by saying maybe we'll go into business with the Iranians. Here's a poly market. Will the strait return to normal by the end of this month? 115 please folks. Wagers on polymarket. Our partners there find not a lot of optimism. Only a 26% chance that traffic returns to normal by the end of the month. And then of course there's the issue of the nuclear weapons and Iran's determination to continue to develop them apparently. Here's a statement from. Where's this one? My list is so long I'm having trouble finding. 107. This is a statement on X from Iran's atomic energy chief Mohammed Eslami says the enemy won't succeed in restricting Iran's enrichment program. No law person can stop us. So we go back to Larry, the question of the talks. The U.S. the U.S. is going to show up and say what? Open the strait, stop having people stop, tell Hezbollah to stop attacking Israel and you're going to have to stop enriching uranium and give us what you've enriched and Iran walks out.

[Larry O'Connor]

That's part of the problem, Mark. But we got to go one step before that. And which is why I'm skeptical that the talks will happen. Who exactly are they going to be talking to? Because clearly whoever they talk to to reach this point of the, you know, agreements that got passed back and forth to agree to this temporary cease fire, it hasn't filtered down. I think part of this process by the American delegation is to test the legitimacy and, and effectiveness of the people that they're negotiating with. It's like they have to actually do something. They actually have to exercise this ceasefire, too. And I don't know if you walk into the room and reach an agreement, if that agreement is worth anything, you. If they can't back it up, there's chaos in that country right now. And I think that's why we're not even going to get to that point.

[Mark Halperin]

Kevin, what has to be resolved on Lebanon and the straight for the talks to go forward, leave nuclear aside.

[Croft]

Yeah.

[Kevin Walling]

To your point, Mark, I think everything that you just laid out are preconditions for the talk. These should not be discussed in Islamabad. The Strait of Hormuz, the enrichment issue. These are all things that Witkoff and Vance should get before we lend any credibility. Like we saw with North Korea during the first term, where the President kind of just went out there because he wanted that moment with the little rocket man. All of these things should be set up and confirmed in advance, including the Lebanon situation. I don't know how that's going to play with the Bibi before we even sit down with them. So now, actually, 10 minutes into the conversation, I'm readjusting my. My thought that this conversation is actually going to happen.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[Larry O'Connor]

Thank you.

[Mark Halperin]

Thank you for coming around. We appreciate it. Better late than ever. The straight what's the presence? What's the. What's the US Desired outcome on the strait? Not now, but long term is the desired outcome to be in partnership with Iran and charging is the desired outcome of the United States to open it back the way it was before? What's America's goal? Anybody know?

[Larry O'Connor]

Well, I think ultimately America's goal is to get the strait open as it was before, but without a hostile threat constantly hanging there like the sort of Damocles from the tyrannical government.

[Mark Halperin]

Let me follow up on that. How could that happen, Larry? How could we.

[Larry O'Connor]

Well, there's two way. Two ways. Either you get a negotiated settlement, which I think is what they're trying to endeavor on, or let's be clear, everyone says, well, this proves Iran controls the strait. Well, yeah, as of now, Iran controls the strait because we haven't fought back. Can we open the strait and defeat Iran? Yes. It will cost a lot. It will cost. It will be carnage.

[Mark Halperin]

But we're not on.

[Larry O'Connor]

The President is trying to avoid that.

[Mark Halperin]

Right. But it doesn't sound like the President's negotiating to open it up. He sounds like he's negotiating to let them charge. And no one else seems to want that. Right. No one in the world wants that. China doesn't want it, the Gulf states don't want it, the Europeans don't want it, the Japanese don't want it. So seems like Iran has a lot of leverage here.

[Larry O'Connor]

I hear what you're saying, but I've also, I am reluctant to agree with you only because after 10 years of this, I've learned now and again that what President Trump says out loud isn't necessarily what he's really aiming to achieve.

[Mark Halperin]

Right.

[Kevin Walling]

But I mean, this also goes back to, and John Ellis had a whole piece about it this morning. I mean, this would be historic, this kind of toll notion. Right. This is like freedom of navigation in the seas going back to the end of World War II. This isn't the Panama Canal, which is, you know, a man made operation and move shipping. This is an open water situation with a country now in the position to charge a toll for the open seas. Traversing is something we haven't seen in 60, 80 years.

[Larry O'Connor]

You're right. But think about it for a second. If, if in fact, like hypothetically we end up, there ends up being a toll on the Strait of Hormuz, what country will have to spend the most money to get their goods and services through that strait?

[Mark Halperin]

The Chinese. But, but they'll get a Chinese, but they'll get a disability.

[Larry O'Connor]

Bringing the Chinese. Chinese has Iran. This is a way of bringing the Chinese into these discussions and other countries who are sitting on the sidelines to actually get engaged in this thing.

[Mark Halperin]

There's at least one report today that the Chinese were the ones, along with the Pakistanis who really pressured Iran to agree to the ceasefire, which the Iranians weren't inclined to do. I just say I don't really understand. Like I could see the Lebanon thing somehow being finessed. I don't really see how the strait gets finessed. They don't.

[Kevin Walling]

Before this meeting, before this, before, before

[Mark Halperin]

the meeting or even in the short term because, because this is the greatest source of leverage Iran has. And they can, they can cite anything they want. They don't like the way Witko's tie is tied to say we're not going to reopen the street and there's nothing we can do. Right. There's nothing we can do. If they say we'll come to the talks. But, but we're not, we're not going to open the strait fully until you let us develop nuclear weapons or you give us, you know, billions of dollars. I don't really, I don't really understand how we go into these talks when the only, the only, the only thing the president could say if they refuse is, Larry, what you said, okay, we'll restart the war. But as we saw during the war, back when the war was still going on a few days ago, we don't have a great military solution to opening the strait.

[Kevin Walling]

Well, Mark, in your.

[Larry O'Connor]

Define great. We have a great one. It's just going to be something that

[Mark Halperin]

the president, I think if, yeah, I think if it were a great one, I think if it was something he was the least bit inclined to do, we would have just done

[Larry O'Connor]

would be an escalation. And I think that that's what he's reluctant to.

[Mark Halperin]

So again. So again, you're sitting at the table. You're sitting at the table in Islam. Let me just say sitting at the table in Islamabad. And you say, okay, you got to give up your nuclear weapons. And they say, no, we're not giving up our nuclear weapons. They say, well, you got to open the strait. They say, no. And they say, well, you got to get Israel to stop bombing Lebanon. I said, okay, we did. You got to get Hezbollah to stop buying, bombing Israel. They say, well, we don't really control Hezbollah. Well, of course they do.

[Kevin Walling]

But, but if they say those things, negotiation, they don't.

[Mark Halperin]

Right.

[Kevin Walling]

They'll have.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, but that's basically what they're saying now. They're saying those three things like, this is all Israel's fault. The straight. We'll get, we'll get to.

[Larry O'Connor]

And then we walk out of the room and we, we resume the hostilities. I mean, that's.

[Mark Halperin]

So that we, we can turn the cards to that topic. I, I don't, I don't see how we avoid that. This goes back to, you know, I shouldn't have apologized for being wrong when I said two days ago, I don't see how they get a deal because they're too far apart, because they didn't get a deal. They didn't get a deal. They, they got, they got an agreement to not destroy the civilization and to maybe show up in Islamabad. But let's talk about the Israelis.

[Larry O'Connor]

I guess I have greater faith in their attempt, their negotiating abilities and their, the knowledge of what they've got still to utilize militarily, number one. And also with due respect to Joe Kernan, and I think he's brilliant. But from the cnbc, Wall street, the market's about to open. Perspective, yes, the straight is all that matters, but I don't think that's all that matters to the people who are, who are representing the Trump administration negotiation.

[Mark Halperin]

I agree, I agree with you 100%. And that's kind of the point I was trying to make show in the clip. But at the same time, the president does care about the markets and but there's just no leverage to get the straight up. That's that to me is what what queers the whole thing for leverage if the talks actually happen.

[Kevin Walling]

KEVIN Unless, unless potentially go at it unless potentially the Chinese get in deeper on this as a real pressure point than some of the other allies.

[Mark Halperin]

Again, I guess, I guess it could be.

[Kevin Walling]

But you're also seeing a regime in Tehran that's continuing its, its missile and drone attacks too, taking out, you know, attempting it to take out a Saudi pipeline, still attacks in Kuwait. So that ceasefire is is certainly not holding on that front either.

[Mark Halperin]

Well, it is in the sense that I don't know of reports of, of more attacks. There were attacks the first day. I don't know. I don't know of attacks today. Maybe there are, but I don't know of them. Israel. KEVIN there's points of tension. The New York Times story is, you know, points of tension. Once again, people blaming Israel for tricking Donald Trump into the war. Point of tension, Lebanon, even though the United States has stood with Lebanon, unlike the French, or stood with Israel and said Lebanon's not part of the deal. But obviously I still, we, I think we all agree Israel is not going to have a seat at the table in Islamabad. How, how, how? Well, where would you say the a public breakpoints coming first between the United States and Israel?

[Kevin Walling]

Kevin I think Bibi is smart enough not to telegraph to the world a really public breaking point because again, that's the leverage that Bibi has in this entire situation. We'll also that the Israelis said that they were not involved in any of these negotiations, setting up these conversations in Islamabad. But we talked about this the three of us weeks ago when this first started of when does this path start to diverge with US Goals and Israeli goals on the ground? And this massive offensive that Israel has launched into Lebanon, a million people have been displaced because of it. The Israelis are doing an effective job really targeting the the leadership of Hezbollah, something they did even before this war with Iran started because again, that is the greatest threat that that Israel has is its northern border because of the number of missiles and drones that are on the ground in Lebanon. And the real fear is during January, October 7th of an attack from the north. Obviously you had the attack from Gaza, but the real threat is really Lebanon and the Hezbollah units there so again, that we'll see this divergent path and we'll see, but I doubt Bibi will ever really telegraph a massive break with the United States.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, I'm sorry. Do you agree with that, Larry?

[Larry O'Connor]

Somewhat. I think, I think that the Prime Minister has his entire career, I think he's demonstrated that regardless of international opinion and even the opinion of the United States, if he has a clear kill shot on an enemy of the Israeli people who have killed Israelis or has threatened or is still a threat to Israeli, he's going to take that shot and deal with the country consequences. And it's hard to blame him.

[Mark Halperin]

Do either of you have an explanation for this continued discrepancy on the Iranian 10 point list? Caroline Levit says the 10 point list that the Iranians keep publishing and keep citing is not the real list and that There's a secret 10 point list that the US has that hasn't been made public. Now look, if there's a secret list for the sake of diplomacy, good, keep it secret. But either of you think there is a secret 10 point list?

[Kevin Walling]

I think the Iranians have likely given up, given up more ground than they're publicly willing to acknowledge and I think that's what Caroline is referencing. But again, all the mainstream media is reporting this and she's on the attack in that, in that. From the podium yesterday because of this,

[Larry O'Connor]

I would say I find it very hard to believe that we have agreed to that 10 point list.

[Mark Halperin]

I, well, to the, to the one

[Kevin Walling]

that's been published frame where they're starting.

[Larry O'Connor]

That's my point. And so, so since that is not believable, then I would say sure, there's another.

[Mark Halperin]

Okay, but, but, but maybe we just all agree, they agreed to go to Islamabad just to, to not have to pull the trigger on destroying a civilization. But I mean if there's, the Iranians aren't saying there's another list. They seem to be saying it's the original list. The president keeps saying, and Caroline says oh no, There's a secret 10 point list. A lot of the press keeps citing the original list. Some in the face of ignorance. I think that the White House has made the claim that's not the list. Some, some not know the White House claims that, but they're just kind of sloppy. What would be, what would be on the, the Iranian secret list that the United States would say that's fine?

[Larry O'Connor]

Well, the United States hasn't said that's fine.

[Mark Halperin]

United States starting point.

[Larry O'Connor]

It's a basis that we can use to negotiate From.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, yeah, I know, I know the president, can, this president, any president, but this president says all sorts of things and then changes his mind and says contradictory things. But it seems to me he's pretty clear that he will not end this conflict with Iran capable of building a nuclear weapon.

[Larry O'Connor]

Right, that seems pretty clear.

[Mark Halperin]

Right, that seems pretty clear now. So Iran's saying they won't give up their nuclear program. So are they going to show up after telling the, after acting like they have leverage, after telling their people that they stood up to the Great Satan? Are a bunch of Iranian bureaucrats and sandals and beads going to show up in Islamabad and say, yeah, for the sake of opening the Gulf, opening the strait, and for the sake of no longer trying to destroy Israel, for the sake of a few shekels, we're gonna, we're gonna give up our nuclear program? Does that seem the least bit plausible at this point?

[Kevin Walling]

No. And that's, and again, when it comes to polling in the state, that's the, the overwhelming majority support that taking out the Iran nuclear program. And if that's not part of the, the, the mitigated solution here, I think the president has even more of a problem.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. So let's go.

[Larry O'Connor]

Since we're hypothetically discussing this, let's walk down a hypothetical path. Yes, sir, let's hypoth, let's hypothetically assume that all of the people who made the decision to walk down the nuclear path in the first place had been eliminated and they're gone. And now we're dealing with what, tier 3, tier 4 people who have fallen into this leadership. At some point, if we think that they're not all insane mad men with a suicide wish, somebody is going to say, hey, it is a big if. I know that. I know that. But somebody's got to look around and say, what exactly has going into this nuclear experimental program for the last 10 years done for us? 15 years. What have we gotten out of this? And maybe it would be wise for us to move forward? I think that's the hope. I think that's the ambition right now from the American side, from the West. And if it doesn't happen and there isn't a sane actor in the room, well, then they're going to have to face an existential threat.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, I mean, well said.

[Larry O'Connor]

Is there any other solution, Mark?

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, I think you're right, Mark.

[Kevin Walling]

But also too, Reuters has a great piece out this morning too, just about the. Again, we go back to December 28 and the protests that we saw from the merchant class and the businesses and then the people. And then obviously all these folks got slaughtered in the streets by the regime. They're in even worse condition economically. So we might not even have to do a lot of that to see. Yeah, if we take a step back and stop falling, are we going to see the people come back out in the streets in a worse economic condition? And even so, they've damaged their, their bilateral relationships with Gulf states that had helped prop up the regime.

[Mark Halperin]

Okay, so let's show that terrible position

[Kevin Walling]

once the bombs stop a drop.

[Mark Halperin]

Let's show that Reuters story. And again, this is a different scenario. This is a scenario where you let the talks drag on, maybe end the talks in a disappointing way, but you assume that you're playing the long game and that the regime will destroy itself. Here's the Reuters story. Kevin referenced. Iranian authorities see the truce with the United States and Israel as a strategic victory. But they emerge battered and isolated with an economy in tatters, little prospect of rapid recovery, and an impoverished, embittered population. After weeks of US And Israeli strikes, many Iranians have lost their jobs. Prices have surged. Factories, power plants, railways, airports and bridges have been destroyed, and the critical trading relationship with Gulf states have been severed, maybe for decades. Even as Iran appears emboldened on the regional stage, it faces mounting internal problems that might ultimately pose a greater threat to the Islamic Republic than Israeli or US Bombs. Carrying through this plan, though, Larry, requires a short term expression of failure. And saying, we didn't get, we didn't, we didn't destroy the regime, we didn't get their nuclear stuff, maybe even we didn't open the street. But it's certainly a plan to test whether you could be in business with the Iranians would undermine this strategy of waiting them out to implode internally. In other words, we shouldn't be giving them pallets of cash right now because their biggest weakness is not our ability to destroy them militarily. Perhaps their biggest weakness is they can't run the economy.

[Larry O'Connor]

Well, I think it's, I think it's a combination of everything and not a lot of those. Yeah, and the fact that they made that strategic error of turning on their Arab neighbors there. They're isolated right now like they've never been. And let's not forget, by the way, I mean, you know, all through the 90s and the late 80s, Muammar Gaddafi was the psychopath, right? He was the one who was going to bring us to the brink of World War iii. He was pursuing a nuclear program. There is precedent for this. He did do a 180. He did. I mean, until the Arab street got a hold of him with the help of Obama and Hillary Clinton. But that's a whole other story. But remember, we actually did make a conversion.

[Kevin Walling]

Say that again. One good thing that Hillary Clinton did. Larry o', Connor, can you say that?

[Larry O'Connor]

I didn't say it was a good thing. I don't know if that was a good thing.

[Kevin Walling]

He was driving that pickup truck that rounded him up.

[Mark Halperin]

Kevin, if, if Iran's biggest vulnerability is the economy, why would we be talking about helping them economically?

[Kevin Walling]

That's a very, that's a very good question. That's a very. Again, they've got our choke point with the Strait of Hormuz.

[Larry O'Connor]

I think, I think history will show us that the Trump administration and the team that is doing these negotiations, this is very much the pattern where we hit them hard and then we say, listen, we can help you out of this. And by the way, you can all make some money out of this.

[Mark Halperin]

Right?

[Larry O'Connor]

Just put down the weapons, give us your uranium, and then we'll build your economy with you.

[Kevin Walling]

That's what back to Trump's mind. He's always thinking about the oil and

[Mark Halperin]

he, if they lie to us, if they lie to us and say, sure, let's go into business together. Here's 116, another pie market. Will the regime fall before the end of the, of 2027? Will the Iran regime fall before the end of 27? Only 22% chance will fall before the. I'm sorry, before 2027. So before the end of this year, only a 22% chance. That's pretty low as far as I'm concerned. And, and again, they could, they could fall on their own because of weakness in the economy, or they could fall because the President turns the attack back on. Kevin, what would be the, the, the reason or the circumstances under which the war would start? The president last night on truth social said 103, everything's going to remain in place, all the military equipment, as the Secretary of War had said also, and here's what he wrote, all ships, aircraft, military personnel, ammunition, weaponry, everything else appropriate, will remain in place in around Iran until such time as the real agreement reached is fully complied with. If for, no, if there, if for any other reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the shooting starts bigger and better and stronger than anyone has ever seen before. So, Kevin, what's the tripwire where you think the president could, would, should start the war up again?

[Kevin Walling]

I think the straight is the whole question and you know, we've got 50,000 or so service personnel in the area right now. Let's also not Forget that George H.W. bush 41 is steaming from Norfolk, going to be in range in the next week and a half or so. So I think we're taking stock on our end, too. And, you know, we can have debates about the merits of the war, what have you. We're going to see that play out in Congress next week when, when the House and Senate are back. But this military is, has been and is incredibly effective with the mission that they've been given. And again, I think we've got the time now to take some pause and we'll see how this process plays out in Pakistan, if it even goes forward. But to reassess and to reevaluate some of these, these hardened targets.

[Mark Halperin]

Larry, if the President announced, just based on the talks not going well, that we were going to bomb again, what would happen? Like, how would, how, how would, how would China and everybody feel about that?

[Larry O'Connor]

Yeah, I think, I think it's more probable than not that that does happen. And I don't think it's because the talks are going poorly. I think it might happen because they've lost confidence that the people they're talking to actually have any influence on the outcome of events there, that they can deliver what they claim they can deliver. And I think that we'll be right back where we were, except will have a renewed reason for escalation. You know, the President and his team can say, we tried the ceasefire, we tried to work this out. They are intransigent, they're in chaos. We're going to finish this job. And by the way, there are a lot of people who are, I know that everybody, you know, the maga. Right. Influencers who say this is a disaster for the President, get a lot of platforming and they get a lot of attention. There are just as many, if not more people who are advising the President, like your friend Eric Erickson, Mark Halperin, who say that one of the worst things that he can do is to end this now before finishing the job and making a significant difference.

[Mark Halperin]

Right.

[Kevin Walling]

Let's also not forget one of the most critical rallying things for the regime is the Ayatollah and the fact that we have not seen the sun. We've heard potentially some messages from them. But again, I think if you've got a strongman that you can rally behind, that's one of the successes of the regime for 48 years that you have, you know, these photos of, of the ayatollah in the streets, the two that came before this guy, the fact that we haven't seen him or heard from him visually or what have you, I think also speaks to a fragile, more fragile regime where you don't have that galvanizing figure right now.

[Mark Halperin]

Right. Well said. All right, three more topics and then to your questions here, if you're here on the platform, want to get in, please raise your hand. And again, you don't have to raise your hand before to raise your hand. Be part of the conversation. NATO, the Secretary General and the president had a long meeting yesterday. They didn't speak afterwards at the White House. NATO secretary went on CNN and said, kevin, is this leading to a fundamental change? The Wall Street Journal says maybe some American forces will be taken out of non cooperating NATO countries. Is this leading more definitively than we've already seen in Donald Trump's reconsideration of the NATO relationship? Is this a watershed for this or just more of the same?

[Kevin Walling]

I think it's more of the same. I do think one of the outcomes may be that they prioritize troop placements and base placements based on more supportive NATO countries in the estimation of the administration. Whenever, whenever you have a guy, you know, a politician from the Netherlands, a Dutch Dutchman, saying the, the conversations were frank, then you can imagine that they were actually probably pretty explosive behind the scenes. But again, Mark Rutte, the Secretary General is the best man in this position to navigate both the European situation and the president. And I think cooler heads will prevail. You might see some troop replacement and stuff like that, but no fundamental, you know, obviously we can't pull out of NATO. No president can do that, but no fundamental changes. I think with NATO going forward.

[Larry O'Connor]

Yeah, Larry, My understanding from, from people I know that work in the administration, this is a very real, real anger that they feel that they were not allowed to use their bases and their, the airspace of those countries for this operation. They did. NATO didn't need to send troops. Would have been nice, but to disallow us from using our bases that we pay for to protect their continent in this engagement.

[Kevin Walling]

And the airspace, and the airspace issue,

[Larry O'Connor]

it was an absolute shock to them. And so I think that, I think this hasn't ended. And I think he did, he said more than humina, humina with Jake Tapper. I think that he was really trying to clean up aisle six and he really boosted the President's efforts here quite a bit. I think, honestly, Mr. Roots is going to have to watch his back over there when he gets back to Brussels because I don't think the Europeans are real happy with him. I think they're seeing him as do Trumpy.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. Yeah. I just think he dodged a few of the questions, some of the more pointed questions.

[Larry O'Connor]

Yeah, he's a politician.

[Mark Halperin]

Midterms, Larry, where, where are we? This whole stew of, of Iran and its impact on the midterms. Politico has a very apocalyptic story for Republicans saying Republicans are saying they're doomed because of the nature of the war. Where are we on that?

[Larry O'Connor]

Well, listen, I think that House Rep. If, if doomed means you use them lose the majority. I think that, you know, it would be a miracle if Republicans keep the majority in the House. Let's face it, not the Senate is still not even in play, I don't think in a realistic way. So will they blame it on Iran? Sure, they might blame it on Iran. I just think it's historical and statistical that they were going to, you know, it would be an uphill fight to keep the majority. I don't think it helps that they're talking about this instead of talking about more important stuff back in their districts with regard to, you know, the cost of living and taxes and all the things they've been able to do. But I think that they're trying to draw to an inside straight with the new reconciliation bill and maybe have a brand new shift of narrative when they go back to their districts.

[Kevin Walling]

Kevin, I still think, you know, it's a little too early. I think we've got to see what this situation again, the world is going to change 14 times by the time July and August come around down. That's really going to be the indicator when you know what folks are thinking heading into the fall. Obviously, Democrats were encouraged with what they saw in Marjorie Taylor Greene's district. Again, special elections are special for a reason. The one thing I will say, I think Democrats are more hopeful looking at the Wisconsin numbers in that state Supreme Court race where it was nearly a 20 point spread statewide in a state that Donald Trump won back to his column from 16 to 24. And obviously that's a key battleground state for us. There's some districts up in Wisconsin that could be in play because of that. But again, I think it is still too early to tell based on what the economic indicators, which is what's going to be driving how people vote come November.

[Larry O'Connor]

Keep an eye on the Virginia referendum though, those numbers.

[Kevin Walling]

It's a good look.

[Larry O'Connor]

Still looking optimistic for Republicans right now, which would be a miracle.

[Kevin Walling]

And that would be big time. The new governor and, and Democratic hopes there. I still think Democrats pull it out, but I think it's going to be closer.

[Larry O'Connor]

Could be tight.

[Mark Halperin]

All right. As we said, Al Sharpton is hosting potential presidential candidates in New York, an impressive array. My hat's off to Al again today. Wesmore and J.B. pritzker yesterday. Here's we're forward looking. So we'll show you yesterday, but we'll talk about it in a future way. Here's Ro Khanna appearing with Al Sharpton, who by the way, called Congressman Khanna Roy Khanna several times. Here's Roro 125.

[Ro Khanna]

But look, I believe I offer two things for why I will consider it to America. One is I represent the economic future and I have a clear roadmap of how we're going to make sure every part of this country has an economic stake in the future, whether that is workers having equity, whether it is the black south being part of the AI revolution, whether it is making sure that families actually have economic independence with health care and childcare. I have a comprehensive economic vision.

[Mark Halperin]

Guys, he's not on my 8 for 828 list this month. He has been. I think he's been number eight once. Just a baseline question. Can Ro Khanna be the nominee? Not. Will he not? Is he the favorite? Can he be the nominee, Larry?

[Larry O'Connor]

Only if he changes his name to Roy.

[Mark Halperin]

Okay, Kevin, Kevin, can he be the nominee?

[Kevin Walling]

I doubt it. I doubt it. He wants to be so badly. He's been investing in early states going back to when he was first elected to Congress. It's really tough to see any House member make the drunk jump directly to the White House.

[Mark Halperin]

Right.

[Kevin Walling]

I think James Garfield was the last one, not counting.

[Larry O'Connor]

Well, yeah, but, but of the Democrat lawmakers, is he in the top 50 of those that could get the nomination? I mean, honestly, he acts like he's going for the Candace.

[Kevin Walling]

Larry, you're in the, you're in the top 50 of Democrats that could make the nomination before Roy.

[Mark Halperin]

Here's Governor, here's Governor Shapiro from yesterday's event. He, he's number two on my list currently most likely nominees, and he's up for reelection. Not expected to face a very serious contest. Here's Governor Shapiro. 126, please.

[Governor Josh Shapiro]

The Strait of Hormuz, which used to be open, which was a key reason why we could keep gas prices low, is now somehow being controlled by the Iranians. Not sure that's a good idea. Certainly not. And then he claimed that he wanted regime change and he went from a 90 year old dictator to like a 60 year old dictator. So I'm not sure how any of this is better for any of us.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, he put out a book again. He's up for election. Here's my question on this one, Larry or Kevin. First, if, if you, if you wanted to be generous to Governor Shapiro and say he said, Kevin, what have I accomplished this year that makes it more likely I'll be the nominee, what would you say he's accomplished this year that makes him more likely to be the nominee?

[Kevin Walling]

Well, I, I think one of the key things will be if we can take the calendar year, how the government today. You know, he's done a bunch of stuff with executive orders, you know, access to votec, sponsoring that thing. The economy is very strong. I think any battleground state governor having a 60 plus margin in support with a lot of Republican support is demonstrative of the governor's skill in terms of not just his work in Harrisburg, but also his ability to appeal across the aisle. I think to date that's been really effective. I thought, I read his book, I thought it was incredibly compelling. He talks really deeply about his faith. He doesn't. Again, I think you'd have a lot of consultants out there saying, well, play down the Jewish thing in Democratic circles and stuff like that. He goes full throttle in it. And it's a beautiful narrative about his faith, especially in the light of the arson attack and how he navigated that just last Passover. So again, I think he's got some compelling things. He's compelling right there on the. Stop talking about the situation.

[Mark Halperin]

I listen carefully to your answer, but I'm going to ask you again, name a specific thing he's done this year that's made it more likely to be the nominee.

[Kevin Walling]

I think, yeah, appealing to white workingclass voters on the voe stuff and, and saying you don't need a college degree, but how does an opening up state government job without college, how does that

[Mark Halperin]

make him more likely to be the nominee?

[Kevin Walling]

It's something he can talk about again to white workingclass voters, especially in Commonwealth of Pennsylvania that have drifted really, you know, to, to Donald Trump. He can say, here's a tangible program that I'm saying all state government jobs are open to folks without a college degree and we're going to encourage those folks to do it. We're going to retrain you. That's a key thing that you can appeal to that voting block that again has shifted away from Democrats going back to the 90s and Bill Clinton.

[Mark Halperin]

Did he do that this year?

[Larry O'Connor]

I have an answer for you, Mark.

[Mark Halperin]

Okay.

[Larry O'Connor]

Oh, you want to ask Kevin again?

[Mark Halperin]

Oh, no. Did he do that this year or was that last year?

[Kevin Walling]

You know, a year and a half. Year and a half.

[Mark Halperin]

Okay. All right.

[Kevin Walling]

You're killing me.

[Mark Halperin]

My point is I don't think the guy's on track to have a great. It's only April. But Larry. Yeah, Larry.

[Larry O'Connor]

So first of, if the Democrats decide like they did in 2020, that they have to coalesce around the least terrifying radical nominee, that's his lane.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[Larry O'Connor]

And I will tell you, it's close to this year. It was November 25th. He polled Pennsylvania out of the regional greenhouse gas initiative that all these states and the Mid Atlantic and New England glommed onto. And it's a perfect demonstration of him understanding that you cannot say, we're going to power this country on windmills and solar panels. Pennsylvania is a big state when it comes to fracking and drilling. And that was a huge sign. He bucked all the other Democrats that run those states by pulling out of the greenhouse thing. And he cannot be painted as the crazy left wing radical the way all the other candidates can be. And I think that was a good move for him.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. Well said by both of you. All right, ladies and gentlemen, quick word from a sponsor, then to your questions. Please raise your hand if you want in on the conversation. It's getting warm and that means getting stuff done outside, around the house, around projects that you might do for work or for yourself. And you want to be outfitted correctly to get stuff done. Try the stuff from True work. Go to truework.com T R U E W E R K. Use the promo code two way for 15% off. It's performance workwear, a brand designed to work no matter what the conditions are outside. With athletic style fabrics, job site functionality, they prioritize mobility, weather resistance and all day comfort for tradespeople and professionals or anybody who does work outside. Spring means dealing with chilly mornings, hot afternoons, everything in between, mud, rain, whatever else the weather throws at you. The true work stuff works in these conditions. Not restricting your movement, not worrying about a few raindrops soaking you. They use advanced fabrics designed specifically for outdoors. So go right now. Four way, stretch, bending, kneeling, climbing, everything you need to do while you get work done outside. Give it a try. Upgrade to the T2 work pant and stay comfortable no matter what the day brings. Go 15% off. Go to true work.com t r u e work w e r k.com use the promo code two way for your discount. 15% off. Built like it matters, because it does. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Here we go, ladies and gentlemen, bringing you in for your questions and comments, whatever's on your mind. And we start with Nadine. Nadine, welcome in. On mute. Tell folks who don't know where you are and what's on your mind for Kevin and for Larry. And thank you for being part of Two Way.

[Nadine]

Hi, I'm in Carlsbad, New Mexico. My question is what would have to happen for the United States to not be the great Satan giving them money? I don't think that has worked and I just, I don't see, see how anything is anything less than temporary. As long as that is their view of us.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. Nadine, it's a really, really great question that I think some people around the President have been asking too. Larry,

[Larry O'Connor]

my flippant response to you is we would have to embrace Sharia law and put a scimitar on our flag. I hate to be that blunt, but that's it. And you'd have to cover up a lot more skin there. Nadine.

[Nadine]

Yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

Kevin, thoughts?

[Kevin Walling]

Bad. Not Carl's bad. Poor Nadine. Nadine, it's a great, it's a great point. It's a great question. Again, there's something so fundamental, fundamentally radical about generations of this regime, you know, even before 1978, 79, that there's no, there's no changing their mentality. There's nothing that we can do. We've tried different leverage points, we've tried negotiations, but there is that fundamental. And obviously it's not just us, it's Israel as well, that there is no changing their mentality.

[Mark Halperin]

Nadine, are you hopeful at all about the peace talks if they happen?

[Nadine]

I have two nephews who are actively serving. So selfishly, I have a lot of hope. But no, I don't see it happening.

[Mark Halperin]

If the president,

[Larry O'Connor]

I keep telling my audience, you know, Jimmy Carter was hardly Curtis LeMay and they hated us when he was president. So I mean, come on, where are we going with this?

[Mark Halperin]

Nadine, if the President called you and said, nadine, I need your advice going forward, not revisiting the past. What advice would you give the President about how to handle things now?

[Nadine]

I honestly don't know. That is a problem. I don't know how you answer this without a massive war and which could be. It could make things even worse. Yeah, I just don't know.

[Mark Halperin]

Nadine, thank you for being Here. Thank you for raising your hand. Grateful to you.

[Kevin Walling]

Great question, Great question.

[Mark Halperin]

Really good question.

[Larry O'Connor]

Very well put.

[Mark Halperin]

Croft, welcome in. Tell folks who don't know where you are what's on your mind for Kevin and for Larry after you unmute. Hi, good morning. It's Croft from Calgary, Alberta.

[Croft]

The main one thing that I'm thinking about is just with the first day of the war and taking out the leadership, it doesn't seem like there's any off ramp. If you think of the Japanese, it took two nuclear bombs to get the that those people to surrender. So if that Imperial Guard won't surrender, I just can't see anything other than what was just mentioned about how does this end other than it's just going to be ongoing is going to get to the point where you can get them to surrender. Like what does it take?

[Kevin Walling]

Kevin Croft It's a really good point and there are some parallels because you look at the radical nature of the Japanese during World War II and their devotion to the emperor and you see a similar kind of fundamental, kind of basic element there where you have that fundamentalism on display where nothing can change. And we did have to obviously level Nagasaki and Hiroshima in order to convince him. There were conversations about whether we show them a test of the atomic bomb during the administration and would that convince them out. And I think, you know, in the end it saved my grandfather. Reasons why I'm here is because Truman did drop those two bombs because my grandfather preparing to which would have been. And if we do a similar thing, you have a lot of fundamental to your point, the Islamic Guard is so fundamental that it would be a very bloody situation, even more than we saw with Iraq.

[Larry O'Connor]

Larry I will say and I've been having a lot of exchanges about this, including some members of our community who feel passionately about it, who have been dming me about it. There were a lot of variables when this thing happened. And one of the variables, if you go back and look at President Trump's first remarks from Mar a Lago, a part of those remarks when we began the military engagement was a call to the Iranian people to rise up and take back their government. And it hasn't happened. And I honestly think Croft, that was one of the variables that the White House was hoping for. You couldn't guarantee it. And I think that there was some attempts to move that and get it along. But I think that that's still a missing variable that could help end this is if the people of Iran and it's hard to coordinate, they don't have an Internet. I get it. But if they became part of this and they became part of an on the ground, town by town revolution to topple this government, that would go a long way, I think.

[Croft]

Yeah, but they'd have to kill, you know, they'd have to be prepared to sacrifice half a million, a million people

[Mark Halperin]

because the, well,

[Croft]

we quit now because our people are.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[Larry O'Connor]

And I think the response to that is, you know, we lost a lot of Americans when we had our revolution, and that was 250 years ago. And that's sometimes, you know, baked in the cake. And I hate to put it that I don't mean to be blithe about this, but I do think that is a variable that was anticipated and hoped for that hasn't come through.

[Mark Halperin]

So, again, Kraft, thank you. We say what we're doing here, we're monitoring the prospect of the meeting taking place in Islamabad tomorrow or Saturday and that we're keying off of what's happening in Lebanon, what's happening in the Strait. It's very hard to track. You know, you can stay on X all day. You can, you can call sources. Very hard to track. Like right now, what's happening in the Strait? Are there ships preparing to go through? You don't know. Here's what we do know about Lebanon. As I said earlier, we know that the Hezbollah is continuing to strike at Israel. Here's what the great, well wired reporter of Axios, Barik Ravid says on a tweet just now. Since Vice President Vance said yesterday that the Israelis, quote, offered to check themselves a little bit in Lebanon, Israeli attacks have continued, including evacuation orders for Beirut and ground operation in the biggest town in southern Lebanon. So Israel's not standing down, despite the vice president suggesting that that they would in the spirit of trying to keep the agreement going. And Bibi Netanyahu on X made it clear as well that they're not standing down. Aaron Patrick, welcome in. Tell folks who don't know where you are after you unmute what's on your mind for, for Larry and thank you for being part of the two way.

[Aaron Patrick]

Thanks for calling on me. I'm Aaron Patrick. I'm from Atlanta, Georgia. And you know, I'm kind of, I'm probably more on the radical side than you guys. I think everyone, I'm like, I like drop site news and stuff. I see some of the stuff that Israel's doing in Lebanon and I can't help but think that, like, it seems pretty evil. And like, I saw the NPR report that they were like striking Red Cross medics and stuff. I guess I'm just like. I'm kind of confused. I kind of do feel like we are evil. I don't know. Like, it feels like we are doing like, some pretty bad stuff and it doesn't seem like we're building towards like a product like this war of choice. Yeah, I don't know. I guess I'm just curious. You guys justify the Lebanon stuff?

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Aaron Patrick]

And see if that's okay.

[Mark Halperin]

Aaron, thank you for that. Complicated issues. Larry, you first. And feel free to ask Aaron questions if you'd like.

[Larry O'Connor]

Yeah, no, I mean, Aaron, you're aware that the Hezbollah in Lebanon has sort of had free reign there in the mountains, and they've been shooting rockets and shelling Israeli citizens for decades. They're funded by Iran. And they continued that after the strikes against Iran. Continued it through the octo. After the October 7th attacks. I mean, there's. There's been sort of a go. An existential threat to the Golan Heights in that part of Israel for quite some time. So, I mean, I, I wouldn't call it evil to retaliate against people who have been attacking you and killing your citizens. I don't think we would accept that from, you know, Windsor, Ontario, if they were shelling Detroit over the, over the river there.

[Mark Halperin]

Aaron, thoughts on that?

[Aaron Patrick]

I mean, I guess my thoughts would just be. I think it's like kind of like the war begets war type thing. You know what I mean? It's like, oh, they're retaliating there, are they? I don't think anything justifies.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, but Aaron, But Aaron, would you say what Larry described of Hezbollah for many years shelling Israel, would you describe that as evil as.

[Bob]

Well, yeah, for sure.

[Aaron Patrick]

A hundred percent. I don't. Yeah, I think any, I think any war. Any. I don't. Yes, I think because I think it's like they can say that we're just retaliating against Israel or Israel could say we're just retaliating against. That is my day.

[Larry O'Connor]

From, from our perspective or my perspective personally. Listen, I wrestle with my ethics, morals and my religious faith, and obviously, you know, that nobody likes to see war. I always sort of talk it through in my head this way, Aaron, if Hezbollah disarmed and they stopped attacking Israel, we would have. Against the attacks from Hezbollah. The state of Israel would be wiped away. I believe that to be true.

[Kevin Walling]

Yeah, Kevin, I think too. And one of the, the, the ways I view this too is, is you look at what, what the regimes are doing with innocence. Right. And we've talked about this, obviously, going back to October 7th in Gaza. And then obviously what we're seeing right now with the regime in Tehran, you know, lining power plants, bridges with women and children. And I think that's, that's where you see the real evil is what a regime is willing to do. Again, part of it is Israel responding to these attacks, the targeting of innocents, and trying to take out the command and control abilities of Iran to target innocent life. But again, you look at what Iran does with the most precious life, children, women, lies.

[Aaron Patrick]

Yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

Aaron. Aaron, thank you for being here. How'd you find two way?

[Aaron Patrick]

I don't know. I listened to you back in the day when you had that Sean Spike pretty down the middle. Yeah, yeah.

[Larry O'Connor]

Boy, talk. Talk about an upgrade here, right?

[Aaron Patrick]

I'm a big, big Larry guy.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. Yeah. Aaron, thank you. Grateful to you, Aaron. Thank you for being here. Appreciate it.

[Kevin Walling]

Thanks for being part of the community.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. All right. Sorry I'm sliding around here.

[Larry O'Connor]

John's a very dear friend of mine, by the way. In case anyone's wondering, we could tell.

[Mark Halperin]

Bob, welcome in. Tell folks who don't know where you are, what's on your mind. A question. A question like no other, Bob.

[Bob]

A question like no other. Well, I'll give you a tip like no other. If you really want a long shot today, look at Sepsiraka. But we'll see how that plays out later. But, yeah, I get thrilled about the masters. Hey, I'm just wondering, you know, it's, it's, I understand all the, the reflection about straight and concerns about where this peace process is going to go, a cease fire, etc. But don't you think to some extent that the, the actual benefits. And I understand that we all don't have intelligence logs to go over, but, you know, the, the ability of the Iran regime to produce missiles. You know, they don't have a navy anymore, they don't have an air force, they don't have an air defense. Most of their leadership level, at various levels of their leadership have been eliminated, both by us and the Israelis. I mean, these are real victories in terms of defanging Iran. And I don't know that they even have an ability, should they retain this uranium, to actually process it where they'd have to. To me, it seems like a lot of this gets walked over in a lot of, a lot of hand wringing and not any emphasis on is that a messaging problem or is it just the lack of, of knowledge problem? Is it, is it a biased media. I mean, what do you guys think?

[Kevin Walling]

KEVIN yeah, Bob, it's a really good point. And you've seen Pete Hegseth really zero in on this in terms of the reporting of it. And I will say this as a Democrat, the military has performed incredibly right with the goals and things that they've been tasked with. I think one of the things that we have failed to maybe anticipate is just the nature of the command and control abilities of the Iranians, that that still to some degree is in effect obviously incredibly decimated. Their leadership hasn't been incredibly decimated. Their capabilities have been degraded to a large degree. But the fact that we did see some missile attacks again, very targeted to Saudi pipeline just on two days ago, still says to me that there is some elements of command and control left in place that we've got to continue to target and take out.

[Mark Halperin]

BOB thank you. I gotta jump over to Sirius XM before, before I go, a couple things. First of all, new addition to the Group chat today, our 4pm Eastern time show on Thursdays, Kevin Stephen Alakari, who you've seen on two Way before, just a wonderful, thoughtful, brilliant guy. Formerly joining the Group Chat today is one of the new co hosts. So join everybody on the show today, 4pm Eastern time, Nina and Emma, Jo and Robbie. And now Stephen. And I'll be.

[Kevin Walling]

That's a great get. Stephen is a fantastic, he's an incredible

[Mark Halperin]

guy, just so, so smart. And I'll be on SiriusXM rolling into the second hour of the morning meeting on Sirius XM channel 111, Megyn Kelly channel at 10 Eastern Time. So in just a couple moments, join me there and more time to ask two way questions. Call me up 833-446-3496 for the bottom of the hour. And with that, I turn you over to Larry and Kevin and leave you in the capable hands of two of America's top communicators. Gentlemen, thank you for being here tomorrow. We'll see you back here. Thank you. Thank you very much.

[Larry O'Connor]

Right now, serious, we said hi. Why so serious? We are great communicators, but I think it's fair to say I'm no Sean Spicer.

[Kevin Walling]

Oh, no, you're, you're better. You're better.

[Larry O'Connor]

I mean, he might, yeah, hold on, hold on. Now. I'm a Sean Spicer.

[Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister]

Sorry.

[Kevin Walling]

We love Sean. We love Sean, but he's no Larry o'. Connor.

[Larry O'Connor]

In fact, we love Sean so much

[Kevin Walling]

I serve with Larry O'.

[Larry O'Connor]

Connor.

[Kevin Walling]

Sean Spicer is no Larry O'. Connor.

[Larry O'Connor]

Ooh, that's a good throwback. 1990. 88.

[Kevin Walling]

That was 1988. Lloyd Benson.

[Larry O'Connor]

Lord Benson. Point of personal privilege. I'm promoting an event in D.C. anybody lives in the D.C. area or you want to come by on Friday, Friday, May 15th, promoting Sean Spicer's brand new book, Trump 2.0. It'll be me and Sean at the Kennedy Center. I'll be interviewing Sean about his book. And is that Kevin. I would love.

[Kevin Walling]

Is that. Is that the Trump. Is that the Trump Kennedy Center?

[Larry O'Connor]

Did I say Kennedy? Oh, God, I gotta put a dollar in the jar. Sorry.

[Kevin Walling]

Rick Grinnell just pulled that event from the official.

[Larry O'Connor]

I've just. I've just been removed from the lineup.

[Kevin Walling]

Yeah, when the Democrat has to remind you what the silliness is over there.

[Larry O'Connor]

Anybody? So anybody? Anybody who thinks that my inclusion on this August program is in any way. Sean and I continue to have a great relationship, FYI.

[Kevin Walling]

So is that. Is that this Friday, Larry, or next Friday?

[Larry O'Connor]

No, no, It's Friday. Friday, May 15th. So I'm telling everyone outside of D.C. you can make your plans, come down on the train, hang out, hop a flight.

[Kevin Walling]

You know, you've got enough notice now.

[Larry O'Connor]

That's right, we have. Oh, I have to clean up other things, too. Eric Erickson. I said to Mark Halperin, your friend Eric Erickson? He's my friend, too. I got a text message that made it sound like I was throwing shade to Eric Erickson. I'm tease. I was teasing about that.

[Kevin Walling]

This segment is for when Mark leaves. It's always clean up on aisle seven.

[Larry O'Connor]

Clean up all of the enemies that I've made. And I meant to say, Kevin, because I wanted to make it uncomfortable for you that the other problem that Josh Shapiro has is the Hassan piker issue. We need to bring the Hassan piker conversation into the morning meeting here because it's a real thing.

[Kevin Walling]

Horse's ass. I mean, you know, this piker guy, You've.

[Larry O'Connor]

You've been great speaking out. I wish there were more people in your party who would speak out about this guy. It's terrible.

[Kevin Walling]

I mean, just. Just look at what he said. And in the not so recent past. I mean, a total anti. Semite. Get him. Get him the hell out of here.

[Larry O'Connor]

That Michigan Senate race is really for. For your nomination for the Democrats is really shaping up to something interesting, I'll tell you.

[Kevin Walling]

Yeah, it really is. I mean, and again, you know, Mike Rogers is. I think he's cleared the field on your side, and he's just out there raising money and that could certainly be in play.

[Larry O'Connor]

When we're done with primary season, this is going to be the place to be. We're going to have a whole roundup of all of the Senate races and where everything is going because that is going to again, I sadly, I think the House, it's really just a question of how many House seats the Democrats win at this point. Could be wrong. Love to be proven wrong, but I got to tell it like it is. But either way, this is going to be the political conversation show that you're going to want to be a part of every single day. All right, enough of that. Let's We've already gotten the group chat plug in, right? So we did.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[Larry O'Connor]

There's a what's going on with Next Up.

[Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister]

Yeah.

[Kevin Walling]

New episode of Next up drops today. Mark will be joined by constitutional expert and bestselling author of Rage in the Republic, Jonathan Turley, someone I spend a good amount of time on television with on Fox News. So you'll want to tune into that conversation that drops today. Talked about the group chat already two

[Larry O'Connor]

way tonight at 5pm Axios Trump White House reporter Mark Caputo. If you're not familiar with Mark's work and it's pretty steady work, I suggest you Google Dan Bongino. Mark Caputo recorded phone call and it's, it's glorious. It's amazing. It was when Dan was running for the Republican nomination for a House seat in Florida before he became a podcaster and he called Mark Caputo about a story he had written in Politico and it is amazing to listen to it.

[Kevin Walling]

Turn your safe search browser off for that conversation. Don't have any kids in the room

[Larry O'Connor]

when you listen to it.

[Kevin Walling]

Yeah, send the kids out.

[Larry O'Connor]

Pretty amazing. And we'll be back tomorrow. We will be with winners and losers and what to look for.

[Kevin Walling]

Yeah. So again, if you're, if you're watching, send us your your picks for winners and losers. Love hearing from the two way community and oftentimes we pick one of your suggestions.

[Larry O'Connor]

Yes. Please reach out to us on social media or DM us and let us know who you think the winners and losers should be. No Chris Holiday, Melissa McCarthy could not play me on the Saturday Night Live sketch. But the question is, who would? I'll find out. If you can just tweet that at us on X. Can we still still say tweet? Can we say tweet?

[Kevin Walling]

Exit? Yeah, no. Tweet. Tweet on X. Tweet on X.

[Aaron Patrick]

You can say X.

[Larry O'Connor]

Thank you. Okay. Oh, we say X. I'm sorry.

[Kevin Walling]

Tweet.

[Mark Halperin]

You can say tweet.

[Larry O'Connor]

Thank you. Just. I just take your guidance. All right. Thanks, everybody.

[Kevin Walling]

All right, everybody.

[Larry O'Connor]

We're not smoking. We appreciate you not smoking, Haley.

[Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister]

Yes.

[Kevin Walling]

Thank you.

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