Trump Warns "Strange" Iranians To Make a Deal or "NO TURNING BACK" as Israel Kills Another Commander

Summary

The Morning Meeting – Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Trump Warns "Strange" Iranians To Make a Deal or "NO TURNING BACK" as Israel Kills Another Commander
Host: Mark Halperin (with Kevin and Larry)
Date: March 26, 2026
Theme: An insider's look at the top stories shaping the U.S. and global political news cycle, with a particular focus on the escalating Iran crisis, its impact on politics, the economy, and ongoing legislative drama in Washington.

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Overview

This episode dives into the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, led by a consequential Truth Social post from President Trump threatening "NO TURNING BACK" for Iranian negotiators. The panel breaks down the international and domestic implications, Israel's targeted attacks on Iranian commanders, congressional pressures on war decisions, economic repercussions, and the political fallout as the 2026 elections loom. Additional focus is given to U.S. Senate races, legislative standoffs, airport safety staffing, CPAC buzz, and real-time audience engagement.

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Key Segments & Discussion Points

1. CPAC Update & Political Vibes (02:06–03:04)

• Larry’s CPAC Recap: Crowds, networking with notable pundits (Ric Grenell, Kurt Schlichter, Ben Ferguson), the energetic mood.
• "It is crowded. I went to get my credentials and it was packed… Cocktails with Rick Grinnell and Kurt Schlichter yesterday…" – Larry, 02:15

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2. Daybook: Major Political Headlines for the Day (04:34–07:32)

• President's Day: Cabinet meeting anticipated (live coverage later), celebration of Greek Independence Day.
• Congressional Stalemate: Over DHS funding, Save America Act, filibuster reform, ethics inquiries.
• CPAC, Legal & Economic Updates: Maduro in court, jobless claims “healthy” at 200,000.

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3. President Trump’s Iran Warning (08:02–12:10)

• Truth Social Post Breakdown:

  • Trump labels Iranian negotiators “very different and… strange,” claims they’re “begging us to make a deal,” and threatens: “NO TURNING BACK and it won’t be pretty.” (08:03)
  • Panel interprets it as a high-stakes ultimatum, signaling escalation if Iran doesn't accept current proposals.

• Quote:

  • "They better get serious soon before it is too late. Because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK and it won’t be pretty." – Trump, read by Mark, 08:11

• Strategic Analysis:

  • Possibility of major U.S. military action: increased troop deployment, potential for direct strikes, and ‘boots on the ground.’
  • Israel’s escalated actions: assassination of Iranian commander overseeing the Strait of Hormuz blockade (12:30).

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4. Conflicting Iran–U.S. Negotiation Narratives (14:08–15:29)

• Iranian Foreign Minister’s Statement: Denies direct negotiations, frames current contact as “messages through our friends” (14:08).

  • "I state firmly that there has been no negotiation or dialogue with the American side… it is simply an exchange of messages through our friends." – Iranian FM, played by Mark, 14:13

• Panel Take: Contrasting public denials with behind-the-scenes escalation; regime change seen as the likely U.S. endgame, with calculated public unpredictability as a tactic.

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5. War Prospects and Congressional Dynamics (15:48–18:37)

• Congressional Briefings: Hints emerge about imminent U.S. ground missions in Iran.
• Public & Party Pressure: Upcoming elections push Trump for decisive outcomes; Republican and Democrat leadership strained over war funding, strategy, and constituent unrest.
• Ground Operations: Possible targeted raids; “boots on the ground” not necessarily meaning “invasion.” (16:03)
  • “A ground operation does not mean invasion… that’s the worst kept secret in town.” – Larry, 16:03

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6. War Unpopularity & The “Independents Problem” (18:32–21:32)

• Polling: Fox poll shows only 28% of independents support the war—an ongoing sharp drop, impacting the administration’s political risks.
  • "He's underwater by 58 points on the handling of the war with independents…" – Kevin, 20:00
• Panel Note: Early focus on MAGA support distracted from the real risk: independents turning against the war, threatening Republican standing in swing districts.

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7. Economic and Legislative Fallout (21:40–27:59)

• Economic Headlines: Brent crude at $107, Dow futures down 335, risk of Gulf investment in the U.S. drying up if the war expands.
• Legislative Stalemate: Long TSA lines, ongoing DHS funding drama, both parties blaming each other, Trump's push for ending the filibuster to expedite action.
  • "Terminate the filibuster and get our airports and everything else moving again." – Trump, 25:22

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8. 2026 Senate Races: Maine, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota (29:15–42:22)

• Maine: Platner leads Mills in Democratic primary; Schumer’s dilemma if Platner is the nominee.
  • "If Platner is going to be that dominant, he's got to back him." – Larry, 30:49
• New Hampshire: Sununu tied with Pappas, potential Republican pickup.
• Minnesota (with caller Wendy): Possible Republican opportunity if Democrats nominate a polarizing candidate.
• Panel Consensus: Several states not on the initial top-9 radar (MN, MT, NE) could become surprisingly competitive.

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9. Real-Time Audience Q&A (38:26–44:33)

• Notable Qs:
  • Minnesota's Senate race dynamics and national implications.
  • Historical context of U.S. engagement in “decapitation strikes.”
    • "Not a difference in kind to what is going on now." – Brennan, 45:15
    • "We're a nation that's assassinated folks… and not just covert assassinations, but coups too." – Kevin, 45:26

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10. Forecasting an Iran Invasion (Polymarkets) (42:49–44:33)

• Polymarket gives a 19% chance of U.S. boots in Iran by March 31, 33% chance Kharg Island is not under Iranian control by April 30.
• Panel (esp. Larry) believes the odds are real if a diplomatic breakthrough fails.

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11. Airport Safety & FAA Staffing Report (47:10–56:25)

• Guest: Richard Kaufman, USA Facts
  • 40% of air traffic control centers are understaffed.
  • Air travel statistically much safer than other transport but staffing trending in the wrong direction.
  • "We have actually reached our pre-pandemic levels [of flights]… but the number of air traffic controllers has gone down since 2016." – Richard Kaufman, 50:54

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12. Wrap-ups, CPAC Straw Poll, and Sign-offs (59:53–65:01)

• CPAC Straw Poll Buzz: Marco Rubio now the expected favorite for 2028 over JD Vance, reflecting his increased standing among the conservative base.
  • "Rubio has done more to sort of build up that trust level with Trump's base…than any politician." – Larry, 62:25
• Programming Notes:
  • Mark Halperin moving to live coverage of the Cabinet meeting, upcoming interviews with Brit Hume, and additional shows and panels.
  • Banter and humor close the show, promising deeper dives tomorrow: “Winners and Losers of the Week.”

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Escalation:
  • "Once that happens there is NO TURNING BACK and it won’t be pretty." – Trump via Mark, 08:11
• Public Opinion Pivot:
  • "That independent number has been dropping consistently over these four weeks." – Larry, 20:48
• On Congressional Secrecy:
  • "That’s why the White House…does not brief anybody up there." – Mark, 15:45
• Economic Forecast:
  • "We're reaching a tipping point where this is about to start having a real impact on the American economy." – Mark, 22:08
• Political Prediction:
  • "Hard to beat a Senate incumbent…we've spent hundreds of millions trying to take her [Collins] out." – Mark, 32:08
• CPAC Watch:
  • "Rubio's star has shot up so much in the last year…what a headline." – Larry, 61:37

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Key Timestamps

• President Trump’s Iran Post – Analysis: [08:03–12:10]
• Tehran's Public Denial: [14:08–15:29]
• Congressional Briefings, War Prospects: [15:48–17:57]
• Senate Races Analysis: [29:15–32:19]
• Minnesota Senate Q&A: [38:26–42:22]
• Polymarket Iran Odds: [42:49–44:33]
• FAA Staffing & Air Safety: [47:10–56:25]
• CPAC Straw Poll & Closing Banter: [59:53–65:01]

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Conclusion

A forceful, loosely formatted but detail-rich conversation, this episode provides a rare real-time window into the day’s political chess moves, war escalation risks, and how domestic politics are entangled with fast-moving international crises. The Morning Meeting’s sharp focus on independent voters, granular polling, and Hill dynamics offers invaluable context for digerati and news junkies tracking both the immediate fate of U.S.–Iran relations and longer-term political currents heading into a high-stakes election season.

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Transcript

[Mark Halperin]

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[Mark Halperin]

messing up and get your taxes done right. Start filing today in the credit karma. Apply foreign. Everybody, welcome to the morning meeting. It's 9:00am Eastern Time. Larry, Kevin and I. I'm just seeing my camera. Larry, Kevin and I are here to guide you through the day morning meeting style just like the network news divisions do. Then we'll run through the daybook. We'll kick around a lot of stuff related to Iran and other things. And then we would love to have your participation. If you've never raised your hand before, today could be the day. Take get a chance to ask Kevin and Larry a question. I just wonder, I wonder what that, what the price of that would be on the open market. But it's free today. Please raise your hand if you'd like to ask them a question. If you're watching on X or YouTube, please, no smack in the chat.

[Kevin]

I think we need to pay them. I think we need to pay them, Mark, not the other way around.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, we'll buy a bubble cuddle blanket for the fifth caller.

[Kevin]

All right, Brennan, we'll take $10. That's great.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, yeah. A lot, a lot's going on right now and we're going to start in a moment with the president's, president's true social post. It's kind of incredible. The President's cabinet is meeting later today with the President right as we go off the air. And I will have live anchored coverage of that on the second hour of the morning meeting on Sirius XM in just a moment. Larry is at cpac. Larry, just give us a quick CPAC update like how's, how's it going? Do you know more about your panel today?

[Kevin]

For instance, how are the vibes? How are the vibes down there?

[Mark Halperin]

The vibes are good.

[Larry]

I mean, you know, it is Crowded. I went to get my credentials and it was packed, so I'll get a better feel. Actually, in the main room today. I had cocktails with Rick Grinnell and Kurt Schlichter yesterday in the bar. And Ben Ferguson crashed our party. That CPAC baby right there.

[Mark Halperin]

Two of those three guys like me a lot. That's what I'm willing to say.

[Larry]

Actually. No, I know who you're thinking of. And he likes you, too. You just. You just disagreed on something that's.

[Kevin]

Hey, you're likable enough. You're likable enough. To quote.

[Mark Halperin]

Exactly.

[Kevin]

To quote Barack Dillary, you're likable enough.

[Larry]

She's back. Came up last night. Mark, and. And he's just. He's a very loyal and prot. You went after a friend of his and so he.

[Mark Halperin]

He just ironic. Ironically, Larry, that wasn't the person I meant.

[Larry]

Oh,

[Mark Halperin]

he likes. I know. He likes me. I know, I know, I know. That's Kurt. I know. Kurt likes me. We get along great. All right, quick word from a sponsor and then we're gonna do the daybook. Cozy Earth. 20 off everything on the site. Today's the day. Stop what you're doing. Pick up your device that you're not watching the show on or open it up. Open up another window and type in. Follow me now. Cozy. C, O, Z, Y. Earth. The way you spell earth dot com. And put in the promo code. Morning. 20 off everything on the site. Buy yourself. Or maybe for someone you love. Or maybe you need to buy a gift for somebody. Go on and buy something now and. And you'll see why Cozy Earth is done so well as a company. Why so many people like the stuff. Why my house is filled with the stuff. Because it's just different. It's really great, well made, great stuff. Shirts, blankets, towels, pillows, the bedding set, and of course, the bubble cuddle blanket. All available to you now. An extraordinary 20% off. Go to cozyearth.com. use the promo code. Morning. Oh, what a beautiful. As in oh, what a beautiful. And buy yourself something today. Discover how care in every detail transforms simple routines into moments of true comfort and ease. Cozyearth.com promo code. Morning. Get in the game with the college branded Venmo debit card. Ref your team with every tap and earn up to 5% cash. Back with Venmo Stash, a new rewards program from Venmo. No monthly fee, no minimum balance. Just school pride and spending power.

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and exclusions apply at venmo me stashterms max $100 cash back per month. All right, the daybook, gentlemen, again, all centered around the cabinet meeting. Here's the President's schedule. He's in executive time right now and what he's doing. He's watching the morning meeting and he's saying I'm going to crib from these guys about what to say at the cabinet meeting at 10 o'. Clock. Again, live anchored coverage the second hour of the morning meeting here on on SiriusXM. He makes remarks at 4pm Eastern in the East Room to the Greek Independence Day celebration. Hopefully some of those will be in current Greek and some in ancient Greece Greek. And then he has some signing time in the Oval at 4:45pm closed press but the Cabinet meeting let's do it now, gentlemen. Over under how long will the cabinet meeting last? From the first word to the press gets kicked out, how many minutes will it be? We've had some go more than three hours, I think, and some lately shorter. Kevin, how long will the cabinet meeting be?

[Kevin]

2 hours. And I just I was going to ask you do you think that AI robot is sticking around for the Greek Independence party too, or for the or for the yesterday meeting? Wouldn't it be awesome that robot should just introduce every event?

[Mark Halperin]

It would be awesome.

[Kevin]

It was pretty wild.

[Mark Halperin]

It would be awesome if they if they came, if the press was allowed into the cabinet meeting and Marco Rubio sitting on one side of the President and the robot on the other. Larry Kevin, two hours. I know you're going to take the

[Larry]

under I a little under though, but

[Kevin]

not he always takes the under, Larry. Always. He he does the prices right. He does the price is right rules right there.

[Larry]

Because I it's the under absolutely. I'm guessing, let's say about 105 minutes.

[Mark Halperin]

Got to assume JD Vance is at the Cabinet meeting, but don't know what else he's up to. Lots going on at the Hill. They're still grappling now with with what to do about dhs. They're still grappling with the Save America Act. They're still grappling now again with the filibuster that we'll see in a moment. The president today said they should get rid of the filibuster and they're also dealing with how do you pronounce the name of this member of the house, Sheila McCormick. How do you pronounce that?

[Kevin]

Yeah, I just say McCormick. I just use the last.

[Mark Halperin]

Anyway, this Democratic congresswoman has got a. The House Ethics Committee is considering a hearing for her. House is going to vote on another DHS funding bill. The Senate's going to try again on the Save America Act. No one thinks that's going to succeed. So there's a lot of activity up there, but not clear they're getting anything done. CPAC Day 2 Today, amongst the featured events, a gentleman named Larry O' Connor is on a panel about new media. Nicholas Big if true.

[Kevin]

Big if true.

[Mark Halperin]

Big if true. Nicholas Maduro and his wife are in a New York federal courtroom today for a status conference on his trial. No, no, I thought they were coming

[Larry]

to CPAC for a second there, the way you were transitioning. Wow.

[Mark Halperin]

The jobless claims report came out and again, I meant to check on that. What was the, what were those numbers?

[Larry]

Didn't see anybody.

[Mark Halperin]

Anybody have those numbers? The jobless number?

[Larry]

Somebody will show the adjustment.

[Mark Halperin]

Somebody will, somebody will shout them out.

They were 200,000 flat.

Pretty good.

Everybody's happy.

[Larry]

That's a healthy.

[Mark Halperin]

Everybody's happy. That is a healthy number. Okay. Happy days are here again. All right, ladies and gentlemen, we start with. President was on Truth Social this morning right before the Today show started. I use that as a traditional benchmark. He had two posts, one on the filibuster. But the more important one for the purposes of our conversation here occurred at 6:39 Eastern Time. 103, please, when the President posted this. And gentlemen, I'm going to want to break, break this down like it's the Talmud, the Rosetta Stone and a note from your. Your spouse. The Iranian negotiators are very his. The president. Now the Iranian negotiators are very different and quote, unquote strange. They are quote begging us to make a deal which they should be doing since they have been military militarily obliterated with zero chance of a comeback. And yet they publicly state that they're only quote looking at our proposal. Wrong. All caps. Exclamation point trio. They better get serious soon before it is too late. Because once that happens, there is all caps. No turning back and it won't be pretty. Exclamation point, President DJT Larry, break this down. What is, what is he, what is he trying to do with this post?

[Larry]

Well, I mean no turning back in caps really does stick out, doesn't it? Mark? I think what he's trying to do is move the ball along here a little bit, especially in light of my guess is he was probably watching, you know, Morning Joe or something, and somebody snarkily predicted that there weren't even real negotiations going on. And they believe Iran when they're denying it. And so he decided he wanted to fire back there and double down and reassert that, yes, these negotiations are going down and he's giving some inside information as to how they're happening. And I think it's obvious what's going on here. We know that there are more troops moving into the area. The sec, the next mew of Marines are almost there. We just heard that he was calling in airborne and I think, as we've discussed before, when he commits this kind of hardware and manpower, he uses it. And that's. He said that, you know, you're hitting your deadline, make your decision, accept our deal, or the next phase happens.

[Mark Halperin]

Kevin, we don't really know.

[Larry]

I'm not being too clever there, am I?

[Mark Halperin]

Well, you know, when he made the previous threat, it was about obliterating their energy infrastructure. We don't really know what other targets exist. They could hit civilians, I suppose. But what do you. What if the Wall Street Journal, I'm sorry, Axios, has a story that says the Pentagon is developing kind of an end game option that involves massive strikes, even more massive than we've seen, as well as potentially boots on the ground. What do you think the president means with that threat?

[Kevin]

Listen, I think he's going full throttle, right? And I think there's timing pressure on him. The Wall Street Journal has that piece that, you know, he's somehow looking at winding this down. He's telegraphed that a little bit. But to Larry's point, it also could be a head fake with the amount of resources, not just there already 50,000 plus troops, but the initial forces that are heading to the area as a head fake to Tehran. You also have the Israelis stepping up their attacks even more so they took out the head of the Republican Guard Navy. It was seemingly also thinking that timing is of the essence here and getting as much done in these next couple of hours and days to really topple the regime to some more degree because of the question of when we actually do wind this down.

[Larry]

Can I just. I don't think we can underestimate the election results that we discussed yesterday that occurred Tuesday in a couple of surprising locations where Democrats did very well because of all of the things going on in the Senate right now with tsa, Homeland Security and the Save America Act. The President has been more than normally engaged with leadership in the Senate. They're talking a lot. It's going back and forth. And I think he's getting some pressure. I think, I think there's a little bit of pressure on him. It's like, all right, we got to move this ball forward faster. And there are reports that he's telling his military leaders we got to have the end game in sight here. And I think some of that is coming from his own party, who really do want this resolved sooner rather than later. That's, that's based on that.

[Kevin]

We're coming up on that month. We're coming up on that month right now.

[Mark Halperin]

I have to say, I think the Wall Street Journal has transformed itself in terms of coverage of what kind of stuff we talk about here into the best newspaper in the country. The Washington Post, of course, is disintegrated, but they've passed the New York Times. So, so I say with great respect for what Emma Tucker has done. I thought their story today was kind of ridiculous, but Hume's pointed this out. What's his name? Byron York's point at. There's nothing in the Journal story they attribute to private conversations that he hasn't said in public. He's been saying we gotta wind. He's been saying we gotta wind this down. He's been saying, you know, it's going on long enough, but it could still go on another month. Actually, let me just run through a few other, a few other things and.

[Kevin]

But do you think, Mark, do you think it going on a month? Obviously you talked about it earlier in the week, the new dates for the China summit in. I think it's in mid May now. So that's, that's going to be driving a lot of that, I've got to imagine, right. In terms of timing on all this.

[Mark Halperin]

You know, I mean, they can push

[Kevin]

it back again, but.

[Mark Halperin]

Exactly. The data for that summit is as set in stone as the first date and the Chinese haven't even announced it yet. So I don't think, I mean, I think, I think everybody involved thinks it's going to be over by mid May, but I don't think it means it can't go longer. Let me just run through things. Kevin mentioned this one 104 times of Israel reports Israel has killed another top Iranian official, the guy who was in charge of closing the Strait of Hormuz. That's a good one to get. And vow to get others. Here is one 106, please. Tehran issues a warning to regional neighbor if Iranian island is occupied. A lot of reports, Axios and my reporting and others that they may try to take either Kharg or another one of these strategically important islands. And the Iranians are saying if that happens that the Iranians would strike back at vital infrastructure in the regional country, presumably Saudi or one of the Gulf states. Here is the Iranian foreign minister in an interview. This is courtesy of Reuters yesterday saying there are no negotiations. 107 please.

[Kevin]

No negotiations have taken place so far.

[Mark Halperin]

I state firmly that there has been

[Kevin]

no negotiation or dialogue with the American side.

[Mark Halperin]

However, in recent days the American side

[Kevin]

has begun sending various messages through different intermediaries.

[Larry]

Messages being conveyed through our friendly countries

[Kevin]

and us responding by stating our positions or issuing the necessary warnings is not

[Mark Halperin]

called negotiation or dialogue. It is simply an exchange of messages through our friends. Okay, sorry. Getting text by a good source. Eric Erickson agrees with me that the President's varied rhetoric on what's going on is all done on purpose. I'm with Mark Halpern. Eric tweeted. I think regime change has always been the plan and what comes off is cavalier winging it, etc is an administration that does not trust Congress and does not leak and a president who says all sorts of stuff to keep people off balance to that point. There was briefings on the Hill yesterday for armed services members on both sides of the aisle. And immediately after that, Alex Ward, the very good Wall Street Journal national security reporter, tweeted this. 109 at least three congressional Republicans, including chairs of the House, Senate and House Armed Services Committees are hinting strongly that a ground operation in Iran is planned and could potentially be underway soon. So they go up the Hill, they suggest there might be boots on the ground and right away three, three members, including two chairs say stuff that reporters interpret as, as this. And, and that's why the White House, you know, in part why the White House doesn't brief anybody up there. Yeah,

[Larry]

though, I mean you're right, of course. But first of all, what does ground operation mean? We've been saying for a couple of weeks now that there could be targeted specific missions that Marines are sent in to do and then they come back to their AMPHI assault

[Mark Halperin]

vehicles.

[Larry]

So it's not. A ground operation does not mean invasion. A ground operation does not mean occupation. And Mark, people have been say, I mean that's the worst kept secret in town. People are saying it all the time that that's an option that they're prepared to do.

[Mark Halperin]

Of course, well, but, but there's option and there's imminent and Again, I believe.

[Larry]

Right. Coming coming on the heels of the

[Mark Halperin]

briefing that I, I believe the track Ron is imminent. Although again, it won't surprise the Iranians if it happens. They watch, they watch the 28 at night. In the morning meeting. They read the reports of all the people going there. Now, let's just get one thing clear about boots on the ground, Kevin. If there's 200 Marines on the ground, how many boots on the ground are there?

[Kevin]

400. Even though I was a verbal, I was more of a verbal guy on the sh.

[Mark Halperin]

That's my point. But Mark, to your point, I think there'll be fewer, there'll be fewer than a thousand boots on the ground initially, I believe.

[Kevin]

Kevin, do you think that is part of this thinking around regime change, that in order to do it you actually need some kind of physical, you can't bomb your way to regime change?

[Mark Halperin]

Well, I think you can't bomb your way to opening the strait, which got to got to happen. I don't think that I think there's three things boots on the ground can do right now. Open the strait, get the nuclear material, regime change. And I don't think they'll be involved in the third one ever because that would take hundreds of thousands. That's not going to happen.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

Tens of tens of thousands can do the other two. Larry, what about Congress is, you know, you saw both chairs particularly, well, really both chairs, but particularly the House, that particularly the House Armed Services chair being pretty catchy yesterday and saying we need, we need more. They sounded like Nancy Mace, who also complained yesterday. Is the White House on the precipice of having a problem with the Hill, whether it's over not briefing enough, whether it's over $200 billion request? Is there is there a Hill problem brewing not amongst the Democrats but amongst the Republicans?

[Larry]

I think, I think there is. As I alluded to earlier, I think the president is hearing from members of the House that they're getting pressure from their districts. People are getting a little we're getting closer to election day. We're getting closer to the summer. A lot of stuff that we're supposed to be waiting for there is supposed to kick in and help. Republicans haven't kicked in yet. And this is weighing things down. And so I don't think it's going to be so such a problem that they're not going to get if they need anything that they're not going to get what they need. But I think that there are concerns on the Hill right now about the trajectory right now. And I think that's part of why the President said what he said on Truth Social.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. Kevin, as you know, there's two sort of fundamental truisms about politics. And one is Tip o', Neill, all politics is local. And the other is I tweeted this moments ago, Live by Harry Enton, Die by Harry Enton. Republicans have loved tweeting Harry clips lately about, you know, Harry saying various things that they like. Well, Harry this morning showed the Fox News poll and said this war is unpopular. This war is making the president less popular. And and the president's handling of the war is unpopular. Here's a bit of the Fox Poll. 116 Again, Fox Poll came out last night, consistent with every other public poll and private poll that I know of about how Americans feel about the war. And so here it is, current military action, US Military action is ground. Do you support or oppose the current action? All voters, 42% support, 90% of Republicans, of MAGA Republicans, 77% of all Republicans. Again, putting a lie to the notion that MAGA is less supportive or MAGA's wavering. But amongst independents, 28% support the war. Yeah, Yemassi and I talked about this last night, Kevin. Obviously, as Larry suggested, this reflects why members of some Republican members are getting rested because they're hearing from their constituents. If all they care about is their MAGA constituents, maybe they don't care. But if they've got a district that's at all split. Kevin, does the president have a meaningful public opinion problem now or it doesn't matter because he's not going to care about the polls and he thinks he can end the war before it matters.

[Kevin]

Yeah, he sure does. And Mark, you made the point and it's right that, you know, don't look at the Republican and Democratic numbers. Right. Anything the president does, Republicans are going to support, Democrats are going to attack. But the fact that he's underwater by 58 points on the handling of the war with independents specifically, I think is giving not this administration pause. James Blair, Suzy Wells, the people responsible for the President's politics, but also those congressional folks, too, that Larry just mentioned. And there's some uneasiness certainly with those numbers. And it's a Fox bowl, the fact that he's also it was 50, 50 when the war started. Now it's negative 16. That movement is really with independents, not Democrats or Republicans. Like I said, they're in their silos when it comes to this. But that independent movement I think is problematic, certainly for this administration.

[Larry]

I think there was so much focus at the beginning because of Tucker and because of Megan and because of Bannon. There was so much talk about a splinter in MAGA. And we kept seeing these polls that said, no, MAGA's fine, that they took the eye off the independents, numbers. That independent number has been dropping consistently over these four weeks. But from the president's perspective and from the administration's perspective right now, Kevin and Mark, nothing succeeds like success. And they believe that they are on the brink of a historic game. Changing globe, changing success. And when they get that, everything gets fixed.

[Kevin]

Bad gets worse, good gets better.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[Kevin]

To quote a wise man. Yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

All right. I'm just mindful of the clock because we got a lot to get through here.

[Larry]

Where's asking such pointed and provocative questions.

[Mark Halperin]

Where's the price of Brent? And where's the. And where are the Dow futures now? I meant to ask that, which is to say someone's supposed to send me that, but I don't see it.

[Kevin]

We only care about those Brent numbers.

[Larry]

I thought it was like 105.

[Mark Halperin]

Sorry, I don't want to speculate. Where are the Dow futures on dow

futures are down 335.

Okay, that's not great. That's not great.

[Kevin]

And Brent is at 107.

[Mark Halperin]

Okay. So there's news stories today about how maybe the Arab countries that have pledged billions in investment will pull back in the US and there's great concern about we're reaching a tipping point not for our allies and semi allies in Asia and Europe and about the impact on their economy, but we're reaching a problem. For here's the political headline about the investment. Iran war threatens Gulf US Investments. But we're also, there's a journal story that says we're reaching a tipping point where this is about to start having a real impact on the American economy. And then there's the security lines. We see this everywhere. We're going to talk later in the program about air safety and air traffic control, but just, you know, Twitter's filled with this, local news network news filled with this. My inbox is filled with this of people sending me pictures of it. And there's still no end in sight. If you look at what's going on in the Hill now, Democrats are accusing the Republicans of not, you know, not negotiating correctly. And Republicans say Democrats move the goalposts. I think Steve Dane said they didn't move the goalposts. They took them out of the stadium Punchbowl, floated a bunch of options, including maybe Thune and Schumer just sort of work it out. But do either of you, we talk about this regular, but do either of you see a solution to this at this point or they're going to go on a two week break and, and leave the long lines in place?

[Kevin]

I can't imagine they go on a two week break without some semblance of, of solution here. And I don't know what that is. You know, Punchbowl also reported that, you know, in addition to Schumer, Schumer and Thune having these side conversations, you're having kind of rank and file members, Katie Britt, who's the leader in the Senate on the subcommittee for this and like Josh Gottheimer and a few other kind of moderate Dems trying to figure out a solution too. I think, you know, when mom and dad can't agree on something, you see the kids try their hand and we'll see if anything comes of that.

[Larry]

It's a very dangerous time because, you know, Democrats benefit by misery right now. Democrats benefit by chaos and misery. And they've been able to cause quite a bit of chaos and misery with this gambit that is relatively unprecedented to not fund one department and let it get shut down, especially something so critical as homeland security. And as was discussed yesterday, I mean, I'd like to think that they're close to a resolution, but Democrats seem to say that they're intransigent, they won't budge because they think they're winning. And while they're winning, they're causing misery because the misery is their way of winning. Kevin, I mean, I'm sorry, but that's just the truth.

[Kevin]

I mean, we talked about this. We talked about this 40 days ago. Right. I'm not a big proponent of using when Republicans do it to affect policy change, whether it be the border wall or what we're seeing here. You don't threaten the full faith and credit. Pretty much our ability to keep the government open to enact policy change, I think. But again, that's the only leverage Democrats have and they feel, as Mark and we've talked about this early on, that the polling is still on their side when it comes to ice. I don't know if that's still the case. I don't know if we've actually seen more recent polling, but initially when it started, you know, they felt emboldened.

[Mark Halperin]

I will never understand the president's continued insistence that Republicans scrap the filibuster for whatever he cares about that day because they're not going to. Here he is this morning on truth Social113 right around the time he posted about about the Iranians negotiations He says when is enough enough for our Republican senators? There comes a time when you must do what you should have done a long time ago and something which the lunatic Democrats will do on day one if they ever get the chance. Terminate the filibuster and get our airports and everything else moving again. Also add the complete all five items Save America act items Go for the gold President Donald J. Trump getting rid of the filibuster to do voting reform is maybe something that could happen or should happen in the view of many but getting rid of the filibuster to fund dhs that would, that would be a nuclear option. Truly I don't understand why he's doing it. Yeah I go ahead.

[Kevin]

I think it's like a catch all now seemingly forever.

[Larry]

If you look at the truth social timeline you'll see that right before or right as he was tweeting that he also shared an article, an op ed written by Senator Ron Johnson at Daily Wire that basically said all of that. I think the headline is I've seen enough time.

[Mark Halperin]

I, I get what pissed him off. But, but Thune does not have the votes to get rid of the filibuster for anything let alone passing a funding bill. And all that's gonna happen is there's gonna be more anger at John Thune. Why is that in Donald Trump's interest Thune's not gonna resign and be replaced by Ron Johnson who's gonna have the votes to get rid of the filibuster. It's just I don't understand when presidents call for things that are not going to happen and will be an embarrassment to their own party. I don't understand that. I understand what Goody thinks he's doing

[Kevin]

well but here's the problem, here's the problem too Mark. Democrats are doing the same thing. When we put at that 10 point plan in terms of how we wanna reform and we don't get those 10 points which going to get we're not in power. It's the same thing in terms of expectations setting and letting, letting both sides down.

[Larry]

When you're in the minority it serves you as I said because it actually for Republicans will turn on our leadership if they don't at least try. Democrats are continuing, I mean they're trying. That's, that's the thing. Their Democrats are actually taking a gambit and showing that they're doing something and it looked like for a year they weren't doing much of anything. Republicans, voters want to see our leadership doing the same thing. And the one thing that it serves, Mark, is that the president, like he always is capable of doing, he's reflecting what the voters want. He's right. It may not make sense in Senate language, but in terms of just being in touch with what the base wants and what voters want to get done, he's speaking for us. And that makes. It's a good thing.

[Mark Halperin]

I hear you, but every president I've ever covered, regardless of party, they lose when they, then they, where they pound the table and demand something that's not going to happen because of their own party, they lose every time. It's just, there's no, there's no upside to it. I'm going to throw off the sled. China and Russia, ironic, because they're the two biggest stories in the world. Lots going on with China and the summit. And a Wall Street Journal story that says leans into the notion that Trump's ready to make a deal, a macro deal that gives Taiwan away, which has been around for a long time now, and Russia, which continues to secretly help Iran. How much we don't know. And Zelensky talking very negatively about what's going on. Throw all that off the slide. Two final political things. And then to your questions. Comments, please raise your hand if you want to get in. New Emerson College poll on the main Democratic Senate primary. For those of you who think that Mr. Platner would be a sitting duck for Susan Collins, you're about to potentially see that happening. This public poll is consistent with a few other polls there have been. Here it is, ladies and gentlemen, the new numbers from the main center race. Platner, 55%. Wow. Janet Mills, 28. Now, I don't know. A margin of error could be 15 points.

[Larry]

And it's still, it's still, it says plus minus 4.2.

[Mark Halperin]

Now, let's say. When is that? Somebody remind me when the primary is.

[Larry]

June 6th. June 9th, I think it's in June.

[Mark Halperin]

So, so it's March 26th. So let's say we get to April. So we get to May 10, and Platner still has a lead like this. What does Chuck Schumer do? Kevin? No, seriously, what does he do?

[Kevin]

Oh, it's a good, it's a good question.

[Mark Halperin]

Because just to be. I'm sorry, interrupt. But just to be clear, Mills has already said negative ads against Platner, all of which are, can be used in a general election. They're, they're not attacking him from the left. So, so do Democrats in the Schumer operation spend every dollar destroying their likely nominee. Sorry, go ahead.

[Kevin]

No, I mean, just change out the disclaimer at the end from, you know, Jada Mills to, to Susan Collins. To your point, Mark, the interesting thing too has been this race has seen more defections in terms of Chuck Schumer's colleagues endorsing Platner. Martin Heinrich, just the other day of New Mexico in a way that we haven't seen in other races that, that are contested similarly, obviously the Texas one. So you're seeing a good number of Senate Democrats lining up behind Graham Platner and I, and I think they put pressure on Schumer to just cut our losses there and say if this polling is, is such with, you know, a massive double digit margin for Platner, you know, this is the guy we're going to guy we're going to run.

[Mark Halperin]

Larry, what does Chuck Schumer do it?

[Larry]

I think Kevin's right and he knows the players better than I because I, I'm smart enough to listen to Mark Halpern's analysis on this. And the fact is this is, this is the, this is the Hill they have to die on in Maine. They don't get the. Chuck Schumer does not become majority leader again unless he wins Maine. And so if Platner is going to be that dominant, he's got to, he's got to back him. Right.

[Kevin]

And he's raising the money too. He's raising the money. It's.

[Mark Halperin]

Can, can Platner beat Collins?

[Larry]

No, but he doesn't have a choice.

[Mark Halperin]

That's Kevin, that's where the fight is.

[Kevin]

Well, I haven't seen, I haven't seen Graham's sneakers, so I don't know in terms of if he's got a new pair too, but I think it's, it's more difficult. But also too, you know, Janet mills is like 107 God lover and not super popular leaving the, the governorship, so, you know, she's the better candidate.

[Larry]

People keep comparing this to the Republican situation in Texas where it's like, oh gosh, the, the base wants Paxton and then, and then he's the less popular candidate or he's the, he's not going to win in the general.

[Kevin]

It's a great parallel, actually.

[Larry]

Yeah, it's not though, because James Tellarico is not Susan Collins.

[Mark Halperin]

Exactly.

[Kevin]

Very true, very true, very true.

[Mark Halperin]

In a thousand ways, including he's not an incumbent. And again, guys, it's hard to beat a Senate incumbent. Ladies and gentlemen, here's More.

[Kevin]

She has incredible, she has incredible staying power, Susan Collins, and we've spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying to take her.

[Larry]

Mainers love her, if you ask.

[Kevin]

She keeps coming back. Yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

Here's, here's more bad news for Chuck Schumer from the polling folks at Emerson New Hampshire College. New Hampshire poll in the Senate race shows John Sununu tied with Chris Pappas. 45, 45.

[Larry]

Hold on, I didn't see that.

[Mark Halperin]

I saw it came out 45, 45, 44. 45, 44. That's tied because I know margin of error works. And I'm telling you, I make Sununu the favorite in that race. I know everyone in New Hampshire says a Republican can't win a federal race, but I'm telling you, telling you Sununu is, he's a great candidate. And Pappas is untested at this level. So I go back to saying, I'm not ready to say the Democrats have. Republicans have a better chance of gaining Senate seats than losing the majority. But it's getting pretty close to that because I still don't see how they get the majority if they can't beat Susan Collins. And if they lose the New Hampshire seat, of course.

[Kevin]

Yeah. I mean, it's a must win in Maine to flip it. And it's a must hold in New Hampshire.

[Larry]

And keep your eye on Michigan, by the way. Just, just saying Michigan's been trending.

[Mark Halperin]

I agree. I agree.

[Larry]

And they could lose that one.

[Mark Halperin]

And if they get a bad nominee there too, the Democrats be in trouble because Republicans have a good candidate. Okay, ladies and gentlemen, the Democratic is our last item and then we'll go to your questions. Please raise your hand. The Democratic Party of New Hampshire used to have as a lot of Democratic states today, Jefferson, Jackson, annual dinner. Now They've got the McIntyre Shaheen dinner. I know who Shaheen is. Who's McIntyre? I should know.

[Kevin]

Mechanism. I know they've called it that for a while.

[Mark Halperin]

I'm sure, I'm sure I'm embarrassing myself. Anyway, annual dinner this year. It's in Nashua, April 25th. Usually you have somebody, because it's New Hampshire who's thinking of running for president. Well, this year, ladies and gentlemen, the keynote speaker at the Democratic party of Michigan's McIntyre Janine dinner. Sorry, I need to continue my wind up New Hampshire. Even though the DNC hasn't said yet what the order of the calendar is going to be, New Hampshire will go first. Even if they're sanctioned and by state law, sanction is an interesting word, right? It can mean approved. It can also mean penalized. In this case, I mean it to use meaning as penalized. Even if they're penalized, they will go first. And Democrats have been beaten down the doors to speak in New Hampshire. That is a plum assignment. Anyone running for president would want the keynote address to the party faithful, the Democratic Party and this year's speaker. Drum roll, please. Will be Hillary Rodham Clinton. Kevin.

[Kevin]

Ready, rested, raring.

[Mark Halperin]

Ray. Ray Buckley is the long.

[Kevin]

Ray Buckley the chairman. Long time.

[Mark Halperin]

I think. I think Ray may be the longest tenured Democratic state chair in the country. I believe that's true. What is Ray Buckley thinking? Why is Ray Buckley giving that thought to Hillary? Because he doesn't want to give it to a real candidate. Or she might run potentially.

[Kevin]

I don't think she's running, but she's still a huge draw and she'll put some markers down in the sand when she's out of power. I think actually she has more support from Republicans, funny enough, when she's in power, they don't particularly care for her, but it's a huge draw and she's still one of the leaders of the party, intellectual leaders of the party. And I think she also wants some retribution. After all the depositions recently and stuff like that, she wants to, in a high profile way, laying it, lay into the administration.

[Mark Halperin]

One more. Emerson Poll. Larry. Democratic presidential candidate poll of New Hampshire Democrats and independents leaning towards voting in the 2028 Democratic primary. The front runners at 20%. Larry. Who is that?

[Larry]

Kamala?

[Kevin]

Pete Buttigieg, is it?

[Mark Halperin]

Judge?

[Larry]

I knew he was.

[Kevin]

This is what Mark has been saying. This is what Mark

[Larry]

state for him. Absolutely.

[Mark Halperin]

Then there are two candidates, Kevin, tied at 12. Who's that?

[Kevin]

Gavin's one of them. And maybe Shapira A.O.C. no, not. No,

[Mark Halperin]

right now.

[Larry]

Then.

[Mark Halperin]

Then Mark Kelly, 10, Kamala Harris, 8. J.B. pritzker, 5. And a whopping 24 undecided.

[Kevin]

I think Shapiro is at 4 right now in that poll too.

[Larry]

Yeah, that's awful for Shapiro.

[Kevin]

I got Shapiro. We're working on it.

[Mark Halperin]

We're working on it. He hasn't spent much time there. All right, quick word from a sponsor then to your questions. Please raise your hand if you'd like to be in on the conversation. And I'll say Mark Halpern's wardrobe provided by Fairway and Green. Fairway and Green will give you a discount. Go to Two Way TV Fairway and buy yourself some nice morning meeting or Two Way paraphernalia today. And lastly, our friends at Upside want to give you free money. Download the Upside app right now. It'll show you where it can be used. It can be used at supermarkets, gas stations and restaurants across the country. Over 100,000 participating locations. And if you want to make some extra money, really, there's no catch here. The apps free. Using the apps free, it's not about points that you can cash in. They send you cash back. And you don't lose any app any of the benefits you get from using your current credit card. Just stop draining your budget, gas, groceries and dining and participate to give out a million bucks a week to participants who use the app and they've given out over a billion dollars total. Go to your phone right now and download the up the upside app and get some free money and more free money. Your first time you fill up your gas tank and use the Upside app, you get a 25 cents back on every gallon of gas you purchase through the app. So go to the upside app today and give it a try again. Upside promo code Mark to get that extra quarter back on every gallon of gas you purchase.

[Kevin]

So good, so good, so good.

[Larry]

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[Kevin]

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[Mark Halperin]

How did I not know Rack has Adidas? Why do we rack for the hottest deal? Just so many good brands.

[Larry]

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[Mark Halperin]

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[Kevin]

Great brands, great prices.

[Mark Halperin]

That's why you rack. All right, ladies and gentlemen, time for your questions. Wendy, welcome in. Tell folks who don't know where you are and what's on your mind for Kevin and for Larry. And thank you for being part of two way.

[Larry]

Hi, Wendy.

[Kevin]

Hey, Wendy. Hi, guys.

[Mark Halperin]

I'm not watching live in the morning

much because it's a little early here

[Larry]

in Minnesota, but I've got things to

[Mark Halperin]

do today so I was ready to go.

[Larry]

I have two questions for you and

[Mark Halperin]

I'm glad you brought up the senate races.

Okay.

[Larry]

First is Mark.

[Mark Halperin]

I'm.

I watched a lot of your stuff,

a lot of your two ways, the next step.

And you guys aren't discussing Minnesota with an open senate seat.

Yeah, I just want to mention a couple going on here. We've got Penny Flanagan, extremely far left. Her ad show her in a hijab

and her ad show her with a key fa, you know, blah, blah, blah,

running for the Democrat ticket against Nancy Craig. So those two are equally fighting each other.

[Larry]

Very neg like what's going on in May.

[Mark Halperin]

And on the, on the Republican side,

[Larry]

we have what I believe is two

[Mark Halperin]

extremely strong candidates in Michelle Tafoya with the great name recognition.

She's all over the place.

[Larry]

I've been to a lot of her things.

[Mark Halperin]

And also a guy by the name

of Adam Schwarzky, Schwarze, who is a

Navy seal, Christian conservative. Wendy, hold on, hold on, hold on one second. That was a good summary, good summary of the field. Larry, thoughts on whether we should be talking about Minnesota as a race that could be in play?

[Larry]

Well, it's an interesting race and Wendy did a good job of breaking down. Exactly. You know, how fascinating the candidates are and how each of the two from each party represents sort of the various factions. But I as I love Michelle defoyer. I think she's got a great chance. But Minnesota is just such a tough one for Republicans. It doesn't seem like it's one of the ones that's on the playing field right now for control of the Senate. KEVIN but it could be if, if the two can't, I mean, if the Democrats end up with your lieutenant governor as the nominee, all bets are off.

[Kevin]

Yeah, I was just going to say, you know, I really like Angie Craig. I've known her for a long time. Peggy Flanagan is pretty far out there. Wendy, to your point, I actually and this, this might hurt Michelle in the in a Republican primary, but I actually like Michelle. I've done her podcast a few times. And I think, to your point, she's very compelling. Obviously, she's, she's perfect for television, perfect for communicating to voters. And I do fear if Flanagan gets the nod, that it might be more difficult for Democrats in that state. Let's also not forget Minnesota was the closest state in terms of a state that we won in 24. I think it was two or three points. Right. But also, don't discount, I don't discount Ken Martin's organizing abilities. He's gone 25 for 0 even though he's running the DNC. Now, there's a strong Democrat DFL party in the state.

[Mark Halperin]

And don't discredit the fraud controversy. Republicans can ride that. Larry, did you have one more point on this?

[Larry]

It just occurred to me, too. It's so funny, Wendy, and thank you for bringing this up because it's such an interesting potential in Minnesota.

[Kevin]

We need Wendy for a midterms next

[Larry]

up, or at the very least to help Mark with show prep. It should have been in there. Mark Flanagan, knowing how, if I may speak on behalf of many of my colleagues in conservative right of center media, talk radio and podcast streaming, Ms. Flanagan, Lt. Governor Flanagan is the exact same, the kind of candidate that we like to use as a representation of the entire party nationwide. If she ends up being the nominee, she we will point to her as indicative of the party in every race across this country. And that could be a very powerful thing for us.

[Kevin]

So and real quick, to Larry's point, the good thing that Democrats are doing are expanding the map, right. Even if we come up short asking Republicans to spend more money holding seats that should automatically be theirs, whether it be Alaska, Iowa, maybe even Montana, if Democrats have to spend serious resources in Minnesota, that hurts us across the board.

[Mark Halperin]

Wendy, I apologize. We're going to have to, we're going to have to skip your second one. I apologize. Just because we're short of time and there are two things I just, I forgot to do.

[Kevin]

Great points, though, from Wendy.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, very good points, Wendy. Thank you for that. And again, Montana Senate race, Nebraska Senate race. There's other races that could come into play that aren't on the top nine, but they're probably not going to decide the majority control.

[Larry]

It's going to be amazing. This is the place to be every morning for these discussions because between now and November, it's going to be phenomenal.

[Kevin]

Yes, sir.

[Mark Halperin]

Two Polymarkets I wanted to share with you back to Iran. I meant to do it earlier and I forgot first. 110, please. Will the US invade Iran by March 31st? If you I believe the Wall Street Journal, that could happen. March 31 is five days away. 2019% chance of boots on the ground somewhere in Iran in not special forces. Kevin, that seemed high to you? Low to you?

[Kevin]

Again, to Larry's point at the outset. And it's a very good one. The president, if he's moving resources, he's telegraphing what we're doing, I think there is going to be some element on the ground, whether it be nuclear to your point, Mark, or Karg or other places.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[Larry]

So the second I just don't like the word invade. Invade.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, it's about the second One is about Kharg111 that will polymarket and again Axios and others are pointing to other islands that could be where the US Boots go. But the question for Polymarket is will Carg island no longer be under Iranian control by April 30th. So that's a month and a few days. 1/3 33% chance thoughts on that, Larry?

[Larry]

I've been bullish on this. I think I kept it at 5050 unless there's some sort of settlement. If there's not a settlement, then I would move it up to sooner than April 30th.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, but listen, Kevin.

[Kevin]

Listen, Mark, the Iranians certainly think something's going to happen on Karg as they're moving, you know, what little resources they still have, whether it be, you know, shoulder fired missiles and things like that, thinking that there is an invasion at play on that particular island. So.

[Larry]

Well, in that and that warning, if any of our territories invaded, we're going to hit the infrastructure of our neighbors. If they could do that, they would have done that already.

[Mark Halperin]

Right.

[Larry]

I mean it's.

[Kevin]

And they tried to. Right. Especially getting gas, gas, oil and gas resources over there.

[Mark Halperin]

Yes. Let me just check the clock here. Okay, Brennan, I'm going to bring you in quick, but you got to be super quick and I apologize. If you can ask a quick question, that'd be great.

It's in response to your, the things you've been saying, Mark, about the assassinations

and the decapitation strikes.

I just want to put out there that this is a past honored American tradition going back to the Revolutionary War.

[Kevin]

It was a error defining tactic when

[Mark Halperin]

we started sniping the British officers to

[Kevin]

confuse the line troops. So it's only a difference in scale,

[Mark Halperin]

not a difference in kind to what is going on now.

[Kevin]

And that's all I wanted to say to be quick.

[Mark Halperin]

All right. Okay. Thank you for that, Bren. Kevin, thoughts on that? We're a nation that's assassinated, folks.

[Kevin]

It's a very good point. And not just covert assassinations, but also coups too, right? In places. And there's a long history, especially in Iran, with us doing that same thing where we've tried to take out the leadership and install different leadership, whether it be through assassination or through some kind of military coup or propping up a regime. So we have a long history of it.

[Larry]

I'm old fashioned. I think if you try to assassinate our President, we're allowed to assassinate your Ayatollah.

[Mark Halperin]

Brendan, thank you. Just reporting now that despite previous White House denials that Bill Maher is going to get the Mark Twain Prize from the Kennedy center, which is one of the great events every year in Washington, really in the whole country, and it'd be interesting to see what happens.

[Larry]

All right, Safe.

[Mark Halperin]

Say again, Trump Kennedy. What did I say? Kennedy, Trump Kennedy. Honors.

[Kevin]

Yeah. And Larry, you were just with the former head of it the other night, Ambassador Grinnell.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[Larry]

All right. Still in charge. He's just fading out right now.

[Mark Halperin]

A lot of focus at airports right now on tsa, of course, and, and there's a safety component to that. But there's also questions about air traffic control. And of course, in the aftermath of the horrible accident LaGuardia that still isn't completely explained, people are wondering about just how safe is it to fly. Now, regarding the FAA and air traffic control. Joining us now to run through data is our friend Richard Kaufman of USA Facts. USA Facts is a great thing. If you don't have get their newsletter or go to their website, I recommend it to you. It's a way to be part of the discussion on the national town square, informed by data. Well presented timely in a timely fashion. You won't get it anywhere else. And Richard's going to talk to us about what's going on with the faa. Richard, welcome in. Thank you for.

Yeah, thanks.

[Kevin]

Always love when, always love when Richard joins us to keep us honest.

[Mark Halperin]

Kevin, Larry, great to see you both as well.

So, Richard, what's the status of the faa or what kind of shape are we in there?

Yeah, you know, after this, this terrible plane crash this week, and thinking back to, you know, the American Airlines crash last year, the UPS fight the crash, we, we really felt compelled amongst these just horrible tragedies. And, you know, our hearts go out to everyone involved to really, really try to understand the data behind the issue. And so we started by looking at the faa and what was interesting to us was just, just seeing that the FAA, according to their numbers, about 40% of air traffic control centers are understaffed.

Which, which 40%.

Right. And you know, I mean, there's varying degrees obviously, but, but, but 40% are understaffed. And that, that, that seems like, you know, we're not going to pass judgment, but something that's just on the surface feels concerning. And at the same time, we felt like we had to look at also safety. And so we looked at, you know, how safe really is air traffic or air transportation compared to other forms of transportation. And on the next slide, if we want to go to it, I think it's pretty clear that air travel is still the safest form of transportation that we have out there.

And just for those of you listening, those of you listening to the show, this is a great chart. And again, it's government data that this is what USA Facts does. You say on the one hand, understaffed, but then motorcycles, bus, car and trucks, rail, railroad, rail transit, Railroad. All are much motorcycles, easily less safe, but all less safe than air travel, which is practically, you know, the safest thing you can do. It seems like you're almost safer on a plane than walking around an urban city.

[Larry]

You probably are.

[Mark Halperin]

I mean, we didn't look at that on the start, but, but, but absolutely. I mean, you know, when you look at injury rates per 100 million passenger miles traveled, it rounds down to zero. So it is safer than most other forms of transportation.

Yeah. So Richard, drill down for us because I know you've got some other data on, on specific venues, specific airports and what the air traffic situation is there.

Yeah. So this, this number that they use to really understand whether or not something is staffed or not, they look at an ideal level of staffing and say if you're below 85% staffed, then, then you are understaffed. And so about 40%, like I said, are understaffed. About 10% are under 75% staffed. These are the least staffed airports, if you will, that you can, that you can see here some smaller ones. Grand Forks, North Dakota, Rochester, New York. Then you see ones like Oakland. Right. The Memphis Track, on which these are these centers that look at air traffic around the airport, not the tower itself. And these are the, you can see that there are some pretty significant airports that are, that are understaffed.

What about the granddaddy of them all? Atlanta? Hartsfield?

Atlanta is as above average. It is, it is, it is. Well, it's right at average. But the, the, the track on is average. The tower is right above average. And you know, that, that doesn't change the long lines at TSA that we've been hearing about this week. But, but certainly it's, it's right, it'.

All right. And so in the end, this is about staffing. Even though air travel is very safe, it'd be great if the government could actually reach the levels we're supposed to reach. So how does that get solved?

Yeah, I mean, they've been looking at a bunch of different ways to try and improve staffing at airports year round. Hiring faster, training, doing things called supercharging, the controller hiring process, making it, you know, easier to train people. So, you know, they're working on it. But, but certainly we're a little bit behind in terms of air traffic control staffing.

This is great.

And this.

Walk us through this.

Yeah, this chart's interesting. It's particularly interesting to me. This is air traffic controllers on the top, the number, and these are flights on the bottom. And the thing that's that's wild about this is if, if you think about it, you know, air traffic controllers can take a certain number of flights per hour. And so as the number of flights go up, the number of air traffic controllers should go up. And so in an ideal world, these charts would look exactly the same. And it's pretty obvious they the number of air traffic controllers has gone down since 2016. It is. We have actually reached our pre pandemic levels, which is good. There was a lot of news around Covid about us losing air traffic controllers, but the fact is we're about, you know, 1% higher in air traffic controllers since COVID and about 3% higher in flights. And so definitely trending the wrong direction when it comes to number of people in charge of the flight safety versus number of flights that are happening.

All super interesting. Thank you. I don't read the chat, but I glance at it and even though Richard has visited with us before, people are asking, Richard, explain what you do at USA Facts and what USA Facts is again, please.

Yeah, great. So USA Facts, we are a non profit, nonpartisan organization that just helps make government data accessible to people. We were founded by Steve Ballmer about a decade ago with the intent of just helping people understand the data that we pay for as taxpayers. And so that's what we do every day. We just take it, visualize it and make it easier for people to use.

And what do you do? What do you do there?

I'm our head of research in government relations. So I work on everything that we do with government partnerships and everything that we do in terms of what the information actually says.

And how often do you churn out content?

Yeah, so we put out, we put out articles about three or four a week. We put out a weekly newsletter every Monday, sign up at our website, and we put out videos about once every month or so.

All right, pop John Thune up real quick on fox. Let you see what he's saying. He's talking about the Schumer and the Face off, but let's just see what he's saying about that.

[Kevin]

In circles.

[Larry]

I mean, I think there's a lot of chaos. I think they're really confused. I think they've got a crisis of leadership and the Democrat conference right now. And they've got all these different people, as you've seen them, going out in different directions, saying different things. So we're trying to narrow it in and home in on a deal that we can strike here in the next, hopefully in the very near future. What would motivate Schumer and Jefferies, the

[Mark Halperin]

Democratic leaders, to finalize this because in some ways it feels like from a PR perspective, they must not think that they're losing.

[Larry]

Well, I think that's true. And I think for them it's all about politics and it always has been. You go back to the fall shutdown, the Democrats shut the government down, the whole government down, for 46 days last fall. And if you remember Chuck Schumer's statement that every day gets better for us, and then you have Brian Schatz, a member of the Democrat leadership and this shutdown saying, we are very serene. This is, I mean, I think they're just playing politics with this. Have been from the beginning. They think is really good with their base, their left wing base won't take, they won't take yes for an answer. And so the Democrats are having a hard time taking yes for an answer. But they're going to have to because at some point people are realizing that it is the Democrats who are blockading and have been blockading funding the Department of Homeland Security now literally for 46 days. So this has got to stop. It needs to stop now. I think they're going to come to their senses. I hope they do because if they don't, it's going to be, it's going to get really ugly out there.

[Kevin]

Will the Senate go into recess before this is resolved?

[Larry]

I think it's very hard to take off if we don't have DHS funded. Obviously we're looking at optionality in terms of what, you know, what it would take if we have to be here. But one way or the other, we

[Mark Halperin]

have to get cots on the floor.

[Kevin]

Is the president making your job, bringing the pizza?

[Mark Halperin]

Okay. All right, Cut this off, Richard. Sorry for the interruption. Just, just to go back, just to go back, just summarize your point of view. So having, having projected all that data out there and presented it and shared with us, what's your sort of summary point of view about where we are currently and forward going forward on tsa?

Yeah, well, on tsa, I would say that, you know, we need to, I think probably end the shutdown and get them paid. On the air traffic controls. I'd say we're kind of headed the wrong direction. We need to do some work to make sure that we are staffing our air traffic control centers properly. But at the same time, flying is still very safe.

You see how elegantly Richard handled that. I said TSA when I met air traffic control and he just, he just said he Just gracefully handled the whole thing.

All of our minds at the moment.

Richard, one more time tell folks if they want to, if they want to get access to this data as well as your data generally, where can they go?

Yeah, come Visit [e-mail] yeah, if I

[Larry]

could just say it's such an invaluable tool and I use it for my show prep and my research and I guarantee the cool thing about what USA Facts does, Mark, is that this is the data that the leaders and decision makers are using as well. I interviewed Transportation Secretary Duffy early on in his tenure and he actually put all these numbers that Richard is sharing with us are from 2024. These are the numbers that this administration inherited. Duffy pinpointed that TSA number. Excuse me, now I'm doing it the air traffic controller number early on and if you remember right, he actually started an initiative to try to get on a hiring binge there for air traffic controllers and upgrade all of the systems that have been woefully neglected. And so and he's doing that based on the same data that makes is made available to you through USAFax.

[Mark Halperin]

I want everybody to be able to see those charts. So I'm talking to Michael, my colleague now. Let's make sure those go in my substack and let's make sure either I tweet them out or Richard tweets them out and I retweet them. But everybody should see those. They're, they're just spectacular charts. Richard, thank you for making time. Thank you for joining us. Grateful to you.

Thank you, Mark.

[Kevin]

Thank you, Richard.

[Mark Halperin]

Thanks, Kevin.

Okay, so a few things. I'm going to step over to Sirius XM in a moment and leave you in Larry's and Kevin's hands to finish. But a few things I want to say before I go. First of all, thanks to all of you for being part of two way in the second hour of the morning meeting on Sirius XM channel 111 Megyn Kelly channel. We're gonna have live coverage that I'll anchor of the president's cabinet meeting. So join for that and then after that taking your questions. So give me a call if you want to be in in on the conversation there. And you'd think I'd know my phone number, 833-446-3496. It'll be on my Twitter feed as well tonight. And again normally I'd leave this to Larry and Kevin but tonight on two way tonight my guest for the hour will be Brit Hume. I worked with Britt at ABC News. And he's just, he's just spectacularly smart. He's just such a great journalist. And, and, and of course, we'll have a lot to talk about. So I'm looking forward to everybody joining me tonight at 5.

[Kevin]

And he really calls balls and strikes, too, if you follow him on Twitter and stuff like that. He calls out the administration on things, calls out Democrats, obviously, but just that's going to be a great conversation.

[Larry]

Iconic hero.

[Mark Halperin]

He's great. He's spectacular. And tomorrow is Friday. Are you guys on tomorrow? I should know.

[Larry]

We are, we are sorry to say.

[Mark Halperin]

No, happy to have it.

[Kevin]

So we need to give you, give Hillary Clinton a drum roll, but not Larry and I.

[Mark Halperin]

But, you know, if I know you for sure, you're on. We'll have full coverage of Larry's panel. Larry, maybe we'll show clips tomorrow. I, I got it. I got to tell you something. Michael Smerconage did, which, which I think we'll play on two way tonight because I didn't have time to send it in. So in my newsletter that I write, the Concierge Coverage Newsletter, I did a stream of consciousness of Trump, of what Trump was thinking about the war. And Michael Smerconage got, I'm now blanking on the guy's name. The guy's the best Trump impersonator. The guy with the beard.

[Larry]

Oh, yeah, Sean, Don, whatever.

[Mark Halperin]

That guy.

[Larry]

Yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

Anyway, he got that guy to read part of it and it's awesome. It's just so, it's so funny. Anyway, going to play that on the show too, hopefully. Maybe. Maybe I'll play it here tomorrow. Thanks to you, gentlemen. I appreciate it. I'm jumping over to series xm. I'll see everybody there and I'll see everybody at five o' clock tonight. And well, I want to ask you this. We did the over under in the Cabinet meeting. What will the headline of the Cabinet meeting be, Kevin? What's he gonna, what's he gonna.

[Kevin]

A warm reception from Mark Wayne Mullen.

[Larry]

Yep, that's what I was gonna say. Yep. Mark Wayne Mullen, welcome to.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, one more prediction. Which cabinet member will speak the most at the Cabinet meeting? Who will log the most time?

[Larry]

That's a good one.

[Mark Halperin]

RFK going.

[Kevin]

My money's on Doug. Doug Burgum.

[Mark Halperin]

Doug Burgum's a good one. Oh, yeah, I'm going. Rubio, if he's there. Rubio is supposed to be in Europe tomorrow and supposed to be at the G7.

[Kevin]

That starts today in France.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, it's a start today.

[Kevin]

Well, maybe it won't be.

[Mark Halperin]

I don't read the chat. I glance at it. Deborah says Besson. Of course the answer is Scott Besson. Oh, there could be, there could be an announcement at the cabinet meeting about oil. That's all I can say currently. But I'll see you over at SiriusXM 111. Thanks again to Richard and USA Facts. Thanks to you guys. Larry, over to you.

[Larry]

Thanks, Mark. All right, let's.

[Kevin]

Thanks, Mark.

[Larry]

So. All right, Dad's gone. Let's get comfortable.

[Kevin]

Dad's gone.

[Larry]

Hang on. Off the blazer. You know, we can get a little unplugged now. Don't have to be quite as formal. He has a very formal dress code. Mark does. Especially when he's eating pancakes in front of us. Right?

[Kevin]

It's very true.

[Larry]

With all of the things that we say on this program. Oh, you can see my light all of a sudden. With all the things we say on this program, Kevin, and all of the dangerous ground that we tread and all of the potentially controversial political positions.

[Kevin]

Lot of pitfalls. A lot of pitfalls.

[Larry]

The most controversial thing that's happened on this show is Mark Halperin eating pancakes and drinking out of a 2 liter Diet Coke bottle. It's incredible.

[Kevin]

The chat was very active.

[Mark Halperin]

Still is.

[Larry]

They're still talking about it on YouTube. Every day they talk about it on YouTube.

[Kevin]

We give you authenticity. I'll tell you what, I'm drinking my diet Mountain Dew. I promise you I am a Democrat drinking Diet Mountain de to do. This morning. This morning.

[Larry]

But you know, before we get to the rest of the promos, so because I'm at CPAC and harrowing to know that the two way team is going to be watching my panel. So I'm going to watch what I say and clearly I'm going to have.

[Kevin]

Can we watch it live? Can we watch it live stream? Okay, what time is that panel?

[Larry]

Conservative.org I think my panel is 4:30 central.

[Kevin]

Okay. 5:30.

[Larry]

This central time thing is screwing me up in.

[Kevin]

It's the worst.

[Larry]

Come on, Texas. Yeah, but, but the big buzz around CPAC right now already. And really it just started like an hour ago. This is CPAC starting in earnest now. Is the straw poll the straw. Last year it was a no brainer. JD Vance was the number one pick for 2028.

[Kevin]

It'll be really, that's a, it'll be really interesting, I gotta tell you.

[Larry]

And, and it's no slight to JD Vance because they still love him. But Rubio Starr has shot up so much in the last year and he has exceeded expectations. And they asked me to predict on my radio show this morning and I actually, I said I think Rubio is going to win it. What a headline.

[Kevin]

That straw poll was like instrumental early on with President Trump too. Right? I mean that was absolutely, that kind of came out and I mean I think he spoke to the group, but it kind of shocked everybody that, you know, he was up there in terms

[Larry]

of that base electorate and you sort of assume that the CPAC crowd is sort of the maga basie kind of grassroots people who are coming out. So, you know, figure it's leaning in J.D. vance's favor. But I gotta tell you, Rubio has done more to sort of build up that trust level with Trump's base than I've seen any politician do that has.

[Kevin]

He's navigated that. So gone.

[Larry]

You know, considering where they were from

[Kevin]

little Marco, from little Marco on the debate stage to now, you know, besties, it's kind of wild.

[Larry]

So keep an eye on that. That straw poll is going to be removed.

[Kevin]

All right, so 4:30 Central, 5:30 Eastern CPAC with Larry on this, on, on the stage. Yeah, but I'll be watching.

[Larry]

I might be moderating the panel so that I don't know how much I'm going to be, you know, but I'll do my best. I'll do my best to try to make everybody proud here in the two way community. And then do you have anything upcoming,

[Kevin]

Kevin, until tomorrow morning, I'll be reporting tonight. I'm flying back from Jacksonville, Florida. I was down here for a conference, spoke on a panel yesterday. So we'll see how the airport situation is down here. Trying to come back to Charleston tonight. So fingers crossed.

[Larry]

Oh, at least that's a short little flight. That's from Jacksonville Airport, did you say?

[Kevin]

Or Jacksonville? Yeah, well, that's very short flight.

[Larry]

All right, good. The group chat live is today at 4:00pm Emma Jo Morris and Nina Turner will be joined by guest co host Nancy Rommelman and Democratic strategist Dante Mills. Do you know Dante Mills?

[Kevin]

I don't, I don't. But I'm excited. It's always a great conversation to watch.

[Larry]

They're going to discuss today's hot, hottest topics as they always do on the group chat and answer questions from you. The two way community you just heard Two Way tonight is going to be much must watch with Mark Halperin and Brit Hume, the legend. Brit Hume, Evan and I will be back tomorrow with our winners and losers of the week and what we're looking for. And, and that's it for us.

[Kevin]

If you haven't, if you haven't hopped over to serious do that also to obviously Professor Kenny with co hosts today, Deborah and Alan to two way faves hosting the post game show at 11. Chat opens for that at 10. So you got serious, you got the Trump cabinet meeting and you got the official after show at 11 with Professor Kenny and the team.

[Larry]

And I'll be live at noon with my town hall show that I stream every day, noon Eastern at, well, whatever video platform you're watching us on right now. Thanks everybody.

[Kevin]

And I'll do a lot with us the rest of the day going on. You got stick with us.

[Larry]

Just don't forget to order food from Uber Eats so you can actually because I don't want you to go hungry. Thank you very much.

[Kevin]

And winners and losers tomorrow. And it's always great to hear from community members on Twitter or on X where have you what what you all think from this week as well. And so those our way.

[Larry]

Maybe tomorrow when the when dad leaves, we'll let Haley in because she does like to come here after Mark leaves.

[Kevin]

As long as she's not smoking. As long as she's not smoking. We can't endorse that.

[Larry]

Think of the children.

[Kevin]

Bye.