U.S. and Iran Locked in Standoff over Strait as Hegseth Says Americans Face "Existential Threat"

Summary

Podcast Summary: “U.S. and Iran Locked in Standoff over Strait as Hegseth Says Americans Face ‘Existential Threat’”

The Morning Meeting – 2WAY
Host: Mark Halperin
Guest Hosts: Hogan Gidley, Melissa DeRosa
Date: April 30, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode of The Morning Meeting dives into breaking political and global news, focusing primarily on the escalating standoff between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. The panel discusses deadlocks in negotiations, mounting military pressure, and the potential for escalation into broader conflict. Additionally, the show covers midterm election maneuvering, campaign fundraising, the impact of high gas prices, and the problematic state of political discourse in America, featuring the viral Candace Owens–Erica Kirk feud.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Breaking News: Maine Senate Race Shakeup

• Janet Mills Suspends Campaign: Kicking off the show, Mark reports that Janet Mills, a prominent Senate candidate in Maine, has suspended her campaign due to lacking financial resources and weak polling.
• Platner vs. Collins Showdown: Focus shifts to a crucial general election between Graham Platner (Democrat) and incumbent Susan Collins (Republican), with both hosts skeptical of Platner’s prospects (“I give her [Collins] 55% chance of winning.” —Melissa DeRosa, [01:53]; “55, 57% somewhere in there.” —Hogan Gidley, [02:07]).
• Fundraising Banter: Mark boldly predicts Platner could raise up to $75 million, prompting playful skepticism and a whimsical bet involving barbecue sauce ([04:19]).

2. White House & Congressional Daybook

• Presidential Schedule: The President’s day is relatively low-profile, with mostly closed-door and ceremonial events ([05:19]).
• Congressional Activity: Focus on the House’s consideration of the farm bill, a Senate Armed Services hearing featuring Hegseth and Kaine, and ongoing debates over war powers ([06:20]).

3. Economic Headwinds

• Economic Data: Discussion of modest GDP growth (2%) and mixed inflation numbers; most notably, Brent oil is at a four-year high, driving U.S. gas prices up to $4.30/gallon ([06:49], [25:46]).

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Deep Dive: U.S.–Iran Standoff

Escalation & Stalemate

• Ayatollah’s Defiance: Mark reads a combative public statement from Ayatollah Khomeini, doubling down on Iran’s national pride, technological assets, and refusal to negotiate ([12:15]).
• Mockery from Iranian Leadership: Senior Iranian leaders publicly ridicule U.S. claims about impending oil infrastructure collapse ([13:02]).

U.S. Military & Diplomatic Moves

• Dark Eagle Deployment: The U.S. is considering the deployment of a new hypersonic missile (“Dark Eagle”) as a deterrent ([13:13]).
• Building a Coalition: U.S. attempts to rally international support for unblocking the Strait, but with uncertain prospects.
• Market Sentiment: Polymarket odds on a return to normal Strait traffic by end of May sit at only 24% ([13:35]).

Strategic Outlook

• No Deal Possible: Mark and guests agree there’s currently no real prospect for negotiations; regime or circumstances must change ([15:08]).
• Debating Use of Force:
  • “I think that we are at a point where we've exhausted diplomatic options… we’ve got to change the circumstances and the way you do that [is] with force.” —Melissa DeRosa ([15:49])
  • Hogan Gidley concurs, predicting “some strategic targeted attacks” and emphasizing the potential destabilizing impact of the economic blockade ([17:00]).
• Limits of Pressure: Mark cautions that past and present strategies may fail, as the Iranian regime has a notoriously high threshold for pain and isn’t “normal” in its willingness to negotiate or bend to pressure ([18:34], [20:32]).
  • “These people don’t give an F.” —Mark ([18:34])
  • “For them, … the ultimate glory is dying in these battles and going to all of your virgins.” —Hogan Gidley, riffing off Melissa ([23:01])
• Risks of Military Action: Potential escalation involving Iran’s regional allies and fears of a broader war are raised ([20:32]).

Political Impact of the War

• Gas Prices & the Midterms:
  • War-driven surges in oil and gas prices put additional pressure on the President, especially in battleground states ([24:26]).
  • “This president is always focused on gas prices. If he can bring them back down, then you've got a military victory and an economic victory he can point to. If the prices stay up… it’s a [political] problem.” —Hogan Gidley ([26:37])
  • Melissa highlights the irony: “Four months ago, the one talking point Trump could legitimately point to was that he had brought gas prices down. And now because of the war… we’re back up to highs.” ([27:36])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Iranian Resolve:

  • “There’s no deal to be had with the current regime under the current circumstances. So what must change is either the current regime or the current circumstances.” —Mark ([15:08])
  • “We’re between Iran and a hard place.” —Melissa DeRosa ([15:49])

• On U.S. Pressure:

  • “The people in Iran understand military might. They do not get negotiations.” —Hogan Gidley ([17:00])
  • “Empathy is the most important thing in winning any battle… These people are barbaric theocrats who do not want to bend to the West.” —Melissa DeRosa ([21:16])

• Political Cynicism & Fatigue:

  • “Explaining, you’re losing. And you don’t need to explain this, you need to get the prices down.” —Hogan Gidley ([27:24])

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U.S. & Domestic Politics

Voting Rights, Redistricting, and the Supremes

• SCOTUS Rulings: The Supreme Court’s slow pace on Voting Rights Act cases draws panel criticism for creating logistical chaos and unclear electoral impacts—
  • At most, Republicans could net an additional 5 seats due to redistricting rulings this cycle ([30:24]).

Political Discourse & Candace Owens Controversy

• Candace Owens vs. Erica Kirk:
  • Erica Kirk’s tearful response to dehumanizing online attacks, including a murder accusation by Owens, resonates with the panel and prompts a discussion about civility in public life ([32:59]).
    • “If you strip someone of their humanity long enough, you will arrive at the chilling conclusion that they don’t deserve to exist at all.” —Erica Kirk ([33:13])
  • “We need to regain an iota of humanity and empathy and be able to look at one another as humans…” —Melissa DeRosa ([38:25])
  • “Dehumanization … is a perfect explanation of what goes on now in our political discourse.” —Hogan Gidley ([37:47])

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Interactive: Audience Questions ([50:09])

• Republican Women, Agro-politics, and the Farm Bill:
  • Diane from Iowa, typically a Republican voter, expresses frustration with the party’s stance on pesticide liability shields. Both Hogan and Melissa urge local activism and electoral accountability ([50:09]–[54:43]).
• Redistricting and Black Caucus Seats:
  • A Utah caller queries how many Black Congressional Caucus members owe seats to racial gerrymandering—panelists estimate less than half, promising to research further ([55:35]).

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Forecasts, Political Odds & Wrap-Up

Congressional Control Odds ([45:24])

• Polymarket Odds:
  • House: Democrats with an 85% chance according to recent market wagers ([45:24]).
  • Senate: Democrats at 52%, but hosts doubt the math ([46:53]).
  • Discussion of whether late campaign-season endorsements could swing close races, with skepticism regarding Schumer’s influence in Maine ([59:01]).

The Post–Trump Right

• Don Jr.’s Prospects: Discussed as a possible inheritor of MAGA clout, with both panelists doubting he’ll have the influence or charisma of his father ([43:18]–[44:50]).

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Episode Timestamps

• Maine Senate news & banter: [00:00]–[04:38]
• President’s & Congressional schedule rundown: [04:38]–[09:34]
• Iran Crisis segment (main feature): [10:42]–[24:26]
• Gas prices, political pressure, and war politics: [24:26]–[28:11]
• Redistricting, Voting Rights, and midterm implications: [28:11]–[31:26]
• Candace Owens vs. Erica Kirk, civility in public debate: [31:26]–[40:39]
• Audience Q&A (Iowa farm bill, Black Caucus and gerrymandering): [50:09]–[56:30]
• Last campaign odds & wrap-up: [45:24], [59:01]

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Tone and Takeaway

The discussion is unsparing, direct, and at times darkly humorous—especially around campaign money, political dysfunction, and the psychology of adversaries. The hosts are frank about the limits of American power and persuasion, and openly debate the ethics and effectiveness of escalating the U.S.–Iran showdown. There’s a pervasive sense of anxiety about rising gas prices, the perils of toxic partisanship, and the fragility of the pre-election political environment at home.

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Recommended Listen For:
Anyone seeking an unvarnished insider view of the American media and political elite’s daily anxieties about war, elections, and the health of democracy—tempered with gallows humor, a dash of hope for restored humanity in civil discourse, and a few odds on which party wins what this November.

Transcript

[Caller]

Foreign

[Mark]

everybody, welcome in. Breaking news as we come on the air. Janet Mills is suspending her campaign for Senate in Maine. We'll talk about that and, and Platner versus Collins and how everybody thinks about that and a lot of other stories to cover, including some stories tailor made for our two guest hosts today. Hogan Gidley, Melissa DeRosa, both here with us. Welcome, welcome in to both of you. Thank you for being here.

[Hogan Gidley]

Hello. Good morning.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Morning.

[Mark]

I'm tempted to, to, to skip, not start with the day book and, and start with the main news. Let's do that. Make sure our friends at Sirius XM know we're starting with this. But they should, they should take this, the main. All right, here we go. Let's start. Moments ago, the governor of Maine, Chuck Schumer, handpicked Senate candidate, put out a statement that had a lot of throat clearing to begin with about how awesome Maine is and how much she's enjoyed running and being governor. But here's the, the two money paragraphs for me, while I have drive, the drive, passion, commitment and experience, and above all else, the fight to continue, I very simply do not have the one thing that political campaigns unfortunately require today, the financial resources. That is why today have made the incredibly difficult decision to suspend my campaign for the United States senate. That leaves Mr. Platner in a general election that starts now against Susan Collins. She might have also added, I also don't have particularly good poll numbers. The recent polling showed Platner way ahead. And, and again, folks, just for those of you not super expert on all the ins and outs, they suspend in order for, for bookkeeping purposes, she's out of the race, she's not suspending, she's not coming back. Melissa Plat, how do You Handicap Platner vs Collins at a critical must win seat for the Democrats if they're to take back the majority?

[Melissa DeRosa]

I mean, look, the polling suggests that he could win, but I just refuse to believe that Graham could win in that, in Maine. And I think that Susan Collins is going to win it. I give her 55% chance of winning.

[Mark]

55%. Hogan, where do you put the Collins line?

[Hogan Gidley]

I think, I think, I think she's right. I think 55, 57% somewhere in there in large part because of the damage that our newly departed candidate did on Platner is going to make its way into the general as well with a lot more money behind it, a lot more saturation. So people are going to understand exactly where Platner stands and what he has said in the past that I think will be quite problematic to many of those in the great state of Maine.

[Mark]

The Platner Super PAC is going to raise, I mean, the Collins Super PAC is going to raise tens of millions of dollars. How much do you think Platner will raise into his campaign largely through small dollar donations? Hogan, how much you think Platner will raise by November?

[Hogan Gidley]

I don't know. 10 million bucks.

[Mark]

10 million? No, Hogan, please.

[Hogan Gidley]

You mean. Oh, you mean small dollar.

[Mark]

Like how much total will he raise?

[Hogan Gidley]

That's going to be in the mill. I mean five. Five million?

[Mark]

No, Hogan, Sure.

[Hogan Gidley]

Why not?

[Mark]

Melissa.

[Hogan Gidley]

Melissa.

[Mark]

No, Hogan, it's going to be.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Mark, is your outrage that it's going to be much higher than that?

[Mark]

Oh, I think he's going to raise $75 million.

[Melissa DeRosa]

I don't know that he's going to raise $75 million. If Bernie turns on the machine. AOC turns on the machine. I think that, I think he could raise more in the ball in the 20s. I don't. I challenge your $75 million.

[Hogan Gidley]

But I'll remind, I'll remind you all

[Mark]

that two way fan favorite Jamie Harrison raised over a hundred million dollars against Lindsay Graham in a race he couldn't possibly win and lost by double digits if he raised 100 million more than 100 million.

[Hogan Gidley]

Why do you think that's a little different?

[Mark]

Why is it different? Why is it different?

[Hogan Gidley]

Jim Clyburn?

[Mark]

Well, Jim Clyburn is not some. It was. We raised it all in small dollars. He didn't raise it in big dollars.

[Hogan Gidley]

I'm saying behind that in South Carolina there are a whole lot of racial issues, all kinds of stuff that.

[Mark]

Oh my goodness, guys, this is national liberal. This is, this is Huffington Post, Ms. Now Money.

[Melissa DeRosa]

I think you guys, I mean, I don't know, has the same appeal.

[Mark]

I think that he's as Jamie Harrison, no offense to Jamie Harrison, but Platner has.

[Melissa DeRosa]

I think that there's a lot of the negative around Graham Platner would, should hopefully repulse some people from not just being robotic and doing what Bernie and AOC tells them to do.

[Mark]

If he raises, if he raise. If Platner raises more than 30 million. And I think he's already raised close to. I don't know what he's already raised. If he raises more than 30 million, you guys have to take me to Maurice's Piggy park and buy me whatever I want.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Fine.

[Mark]

And that includes, and that includes sauce to go.

[Hogan Gidley]

All right, if you want sauces, just pick them, Mark.

[Mark]

Okay. And you probably have to ship the sauces because I can't get them through tsa. All right, we'll see. I think this hour they'll probably be reaction from Platner and maybe Collins. So we'll keep tracking that. Let's do the daybook. President today is at the White House. Here's the pool for today. Our friends at Fox and News Nation are the TV pools. My friends at the Daily Mail are the secondary print pool with the Christian Science Monitor. When was the last time you guys read the Christian Science Monitor? Hogan, Give me a rough estimate.

[Hogan Gidley]

Three and a half, four years.

[Mark]

Really, Melissa? I'd say for me it's the 1990s.

[Melissa DeRosa]

I was going to say, you may be shocked to hear this, Mark, but I don't think I've ever read the Christian.

[Mark]

Okay, and then center square is the new media. Here's the President's schedule. His is now de rigor. Executive time, 8:00am, 10:30, the president, the first lady bid farewell to the King and queen from the South Portico. 11:30, the President participates in a phone interview. Hogan, it's not with me. Do you know it's with.

[Hogan Gidley]

I don't.

[Mark]

Okay, well, we'll track that. I haven't seen anybody report who that's with. Two o', clock close press, executive order signing. I believe that has to do with retirement accounts for people whose employers don't offer retirement accounts. Three o', clock, that's closed press. So as of now, three o', clock, closed press policy meeting. Four o', clock, closed press policy meeting. So as of today, except for the pool coverage of the farewell where I don't suspect there'll be a Q and a, we may not hear from the President. Don't know what the Vice President's doing. Scott Bessant's doing a financial literacy fair capstone event at 10 o'.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Clock.

[Hogan Gidley]

Is that where is that?

[Mark]

At the Treasury Building, 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue.

[Hogan Gidley]

Gotcha.

[Mark]

Okay. The House is considering the farm bill today. Senate Appropriations. Here's from Doug Collins at 10, Chuck Schumer, Adam Schiff hold a press conference at 10 to talk about war powers. Armed Services gets Hagseth and Kane today at 11 on the Senate side. And there's going to be a vote on that Armed Services resolution in the afternoon. The King and queen are in Virginia today and leave for back home after the president invite first lady said goodbye to them at some point today. They keep these times secret for security purposes. Cole Allen, the alleged accused D.C. white House correspondents association dinner shooter, is due back in federal court for a detention hearing and we had a bunch of economic data come out earlier today, mixed on the economy. First quarter GDP grew 2%, slightly less than expectations, but up from the Q1, which I believe Q4 or Q4 rather I believe Q4 was also adjusted up. March wholesale inflation came in around expectations 3.5. Brent oil was at its high in four years, although it came down a little bit today. Dow futures are opening higher and oil is opening lower, although gas prices are still extraordinarily high. They are 430 major jump in gas prices yesterday. All right, quick word from a sponsor and then we're going to get to Melissa and Hogan and a bunch of topics and then before too long, we'll get to you all. We'd love to hear from you if you're a member of the community. We've heard from some new folks this week. Again, if you've never raised your hand is a very friendly place. Neither Melissa nor Hogan will bite your head off, literally or figuratively. So please join the conversation. If you're watching on X or YouTube, please know smack in the chat. We hate smack in the chat. We like peace, love and understanding. We'd love for you to extend the presumption of grace to all. We had a lovely conversation last night with Elizabeth and Jaime about all the, all the anger in America. And if you didn't watch it, I recommend you go watch it now. It's still, it's almost timeless. It was so good. And, and that's what we'd like for today. All right, quick word from a sponsor. Our starting sponsor will not surprise you. Our friends at Cozy Earth want to help you buy your Mother's day gifts. Now 20 off. Some of you have done it and some of you have already said to me, mark, thank you for that recommendation. They got it. Some of you get them and then rewrap them for mom. So you've seen what you purchase. 20% off everything on the site. Code0.com promo code morning buy your mom bathrobe. Buy your mom a robe. Slippers rather, or the bubble cuddle blanket comes in various sizes, all combination of comfort and style. We had a guest on the other day and I asked him about his Mother's Day shopping. He said, well, my mom passed away many years ago. It could have been a horrible moment. But then I point out that he's married to a mom, so it all worked out well. And it can work out well for you too, if you got to go see.com promo code morning buy whatever you want. 20% off post purchase survey, tell them Hogan sent you and home starts with mom or buy something for yourself. Really just go buy something on Cozy Earth because like so many members of the two way community, you'll find their stuff is awesome. Cozyearth.com promo code morning. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

[Matt Ebert]

I started with one shop. No college degree, no big investors. It was just a willingness to work. Over time, that one shop turned into a multi billion dollar business called Crash Champions. All the lessons I learned along the way came from the grind. And that's what my show Pod Crash is all about. We have real conversations with people who've built things the hard way. We talk to founders, athletes and blue collar leaders who kept going when things got tough. You'll hear stories of grit, leadership and growth. Plus real world lessons you can take back to your team and your life tomorrow.

[Mark]

When you get momentum, you step on the gas. That's how you get separation from everybody else.

[Hogan Gidley]

I was at Harvard Law School. I was, blah, blah, blah. I looked up, let me tell you something, there's kids in my neighborhood putting in Sheetrock that are smarter than you. AI is going to disrupt a lot of stuff. It is never going to disrupt physical

[Mark]

blue collar trade skill.

[Hogan Gidley]

And the guy just looked at me

[Matt Ebert]

and he said it's bloody impossible.

[Hogan Gidley]

So I asked him this question, I said, it's impossible, possible.

[Matt Ebert]

Unless that's. Podcast with me, Matt ebert, watch on YouTube and listen wherever you get your podcasts.

[Mark]

All right, Iran. We starting with Iran? I think we are. Remind myself if we're starting with Iran. I got a lot of, I got a lot of data here. Huh?

[Hogan Gidley]

Are we talking about the house last night, staying up till whatever time doing its thing, or we going, we can't.

[Mark]

We can if you want. What do you want to talk about?

[Hogan Gidley]

But I don't know, it just, I, I, I, I think just as a little insight as I was up there, the administration of groups of people holding up a funding bill for ICE and Customs and Border Protection to argue over the farm bill. Yeah, I was literally having conversations with people going, now explain to me how you're going to go home and sell. I held up ICE and Customs, Border Protection funding the very agencies you vote, you know, you, you promised to fund, not to mention ridiculed the left for not funding because corn dot, dot. I'm very confused. And the leverage is, I'm like, you're leveraging this for what?

[Mark]

Hogan, do you think you're voting on the bill today? Hogan, do you think you're on the punchbowl fly out day zoom. We're not. We're not talking about the arcania of the House here.

[Hogan Gidley]

I know. It's just. It's just that that's. That's the reason people don't like the function.

[Mark]

I know. I know. What your friend is your friend. This your friend. The Speaker's got no margin of error on a bunch of stuff. I. I agree. Sorry. That's all right. Let's talk about Iran. Melissa, I'm not going to ask you about the House. It's too boring to me. When they solve something, we'll talk about them.

[Hogan Gidley]

Too boring.

[Melissa DeRosa]

But I feel bad for Hogan, who obviously had a rough night.

[Mark]

Yeah, he's got sleep deprived. He thinks he's on Punchbowl News. All right, ladies and gentlemen, the Ayatollah was heard from, or at least someone with the voice of the Ayatollah 103 a little while ago. He put out a statement, or someone put out a statement in his name. A written statement from Ayatollah Khomeini says this, quote, 90 million proud and honorable Iranians inside and outside the country regard all of Iran's identity based spiritual, human, scientific, industrial and technological capacities, from nanotechnology and biotechnology to nuclear and missile capabilities, as national assets and will protect them just as they protect the country's water, land and airspace. So someone claiming to be the Ayatollah doesn't seem like he wants to show up in Islamabad and negotiate an end to their nuclear program, which the President, the President says continues to say is his bottom line. So defiance on that issue and defiance from the speaker of the Iranian Parliament on the oil well issue. Another mocking tweet from a senior Iranian official. I'll read this verbatim. It's meant to be a mocking of the President and Scott Bessen and their claims that the oil system is about to implode or explode because of the shutdown and no place to store oil. This is from the speaker. Three days in, no well exploded. We could extend to 30 and livestream the well here. That was the kind of junk advice the US Administration gets from people like Besset, who also pushed the blockade theory and cranked oil up to $120 plus. Next stop, 140. The issue isn't the theory, it's the mindset. I may tag every tweet I send now with that last sentence. The issue isn't the theory, it's the mindset. Bloomberg's reporting this. US106US seeks to deploy hypersonic missile We've never deployed this before. It's called Dark Eagle, a hypersonic missile that would allow the US to to target some of the hidden Iranian assets better. Wall street journal reports this 105. The US is trying to build a coalition. They sent a letter to all the embassies seeing if countries want to get on board militarily, diplomatically, or both with the new coalition to try to get ships moving through the strait. Not clear at what point that would occur. And let's Polymarket this number 108, please. Will the Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by end of May? 24% chance. You can see it's declined quite a bit. Will it return? 24% chance returned to normal. Finally, Axios reports that the President's going to be briefed today at some point by the Pentagon that chair the Joint Chiefs on military options amid talk of perhaps a strike, a short but, but intense strike of Iranian infrastructure assets to try to change things. So guys, here's, here's. And the president yesterday said repeatedly he's not going to send Jared and Kush, wish Kush or anybody, let alone the vice president to Islamabad to read a piece of paper and say, no, this isn't good enough from an Iraqi offer. So here's what I think now. Want to know what you think with all of that? There's no deal to be had with the current regime under the current circumstances. So what must change is either the current regime or the current circumstances. And they're trying to change the circumstances, which could change the regiment. But they're trying to change the circumstances with the blockade. They're trying to change the circumstances with perhaps military strikes. Melissa, where do we stand today? What should people think about the prospects of this deadlock, the stalemate being broken somehow?

[Melissa DeRosa]

No, I think what we've got here is a good old fashioned quagmire. I think that we're going to have to use force. Hogan said this on the show a week ago, two weeks ago also. And I think that we are at a point where we've exhausted diplomatic options. It doesn't seem like this is changing anytime soon. If anything, you know, who knows how much is posturing versus whether or not they are truly dug in, but at least publicly facing they're dug in. And so we've got to change the circumstances in the way you do that with force. The problem, of course, is if we do some of the things the president has articulated, targeting bridges, targeting power grids, you risk creating a Syrian like humanitarian crisis and potentially making things worse and making the US Continue to look like a bully. And I don't know that the allies are going to be so quick to, to resume, come back to our side and help us get out of it. So we're between Iran and a hard place and I think we're going to have to change the circumstances. You said and it's going to, it's going to take force.

[Mark]

Hogan, do you agree with that? The force is inevitable. Now we've people have been coming on this program and two way tonight and saying that for two weeks now, maybe more, you included. Is that where we're headed for sure.

[Hogan Gidley]

Now I do think there will be some strategic target targeted attacks in the future. I, I will say though, when you read the quote from the Ayatollah, you could have in my estimations, I also said this too was you you could insert a, a Tony Montana quote in there, say hello to my little friend, because it's the last gasp from someone that is about to be snuffed out of existence. And I think that's true for the Iranian regime. Now how quickly that occurs I'm not sure. But I will say this, this blockade has done more to cripple their economy. That was already not great. And I think that chokehold is going to, to yield extremely good results for, for this military conflict. But I do think, as I've said before, the folks in Iran understand military might. They do not get negotiations. They've refused every attempt at solving wars for the last several decades. So I think a pin prick or two, a destruction of a bridge or electric grid may be something that kind of shocks the system. But I still think the economy in that country is going to be the key because the people, the folks that the Iranian government are supposed to be paying, they can't pay anymore and you don't get paychecks. You see it in this country. You, you know, you walk off the TSA job and you're fine here in America. But in Iran it's a different story. And I expect a lot of folks to take arms in revolt sooner or later.

[Mark]

You may be right. But I will say I talk to experts, I read experts. I, you know, there's great op ed piece in the Wall Street Journal today by two experts who say maybe, maybe what Hogan just said is right, but maybe it's not. I think if there's one North Star here to understand what's going on and to try to project what will happen, if there's one, it's, it's someone put this in the chat. It's, it's what a friend of mine texted me the other day. These people don't give an F. Yes, you cannot bet on them responding to a worse economy. You cannot bet on them responding favorably. From the US point of view to more military strikes, they might, you can't rule it out. But if you're, if you're, if you're, if you're, if past this prologue, the multi year Iran Iraq war, if, if you're trying to game out, what could the US do? If I'm right and my, some of the people I talked to are right, the US Must change the circumstances. The circumstances are not right for the Iranians to show up in Islamabad and to dismantle their nuclear program. So if you must change the circumstances, the question is what will A combination of military and economic. If Iran leadership was a normal leadership, of course it would. But they're not normal. They're, they're, they're theocratic maniacs who want to hold on to power and, and, and, and think they can wait out the United States because the midterms are coming, because oil gas prices are going up higher, because the allies are never going to put up and do anything.

[Hogan Gidley]

So that's, that's the, you're correct. And that's the fallacy, I think, of previous administrations, which is all they really want to do is negotiate. If we opened up a few Domino's pieces and gave them Apple iPhone, we'd all, everyone love what we're about. That is not their mindset. They want death and destruction. They're very open about that. You would think crushing their military and crushing their economy would jog something in them, but it doesn't look like it's done too much, at least to those in power now. Change that mindset.

[Mark]

Their military has not been crushed. It's been seriously degraded. But we all know that if tonight the President orders airstrikes on, on Iranian targets, on bridges, more bridges, on nuclear plants, on power plants, we all know that in all likelihood, maybe not 100. We all know the Iranians would probably start doing stuff in the region, hitting Israel, hitting the Gulf states, hitting Saudi in, in a way that would be powerful, a way that would potentially lead to World War iii. So this, this, this notion. You're right, Hogan. The mistake in the past has assumed they would be to negotiate, but the mistake in the present could well be that you can force them to their knees. They're not interested in being on their knees.

[Melissa DeRosa]

No, Mark, I agree with you. Like they have a different threshold for pain. And it's what it's. Empathy is the most important thing in winning any battle, whether it's political, whether it's corporate, whatever. You have to get into the mind of the person you're up against. And these people are barbaric theocrats who do not want to bend to the West. And the public statement that came out this morning, what did he say that Ayatollah? He said the only place for the US Is at the bottom of the sea and death to America again. And so I think that there would have to be a strategy for a regime change. And I'm not privy to the Situation Room, I don't know what that can look like at this point, how we can get there, but otherwise we're just stuck because they're not going to give up. They're watching the clock. They see it's an unpopular war in the United States. They know the midterms are coming. They're watching the gas prices go up and they have a higher threshold for pain than the rest of us. And they don't care if their people suffer.

[Mark]

And just. Well said. But just to be clear, if today they announced that they were giving up their nuclear program, I wouldn't be surprised. I'm not saying it can't happen. But again, based on the past and based on their current attitude and based on how the United States is behaving, it doesn't seem that's the base case. It doesn't seem like that's the most likely option. Hogan.

[Hogan Gidley]

No, I agree. Where we are now, we've said this so many times, though, and that is if you're dealing with a reasonable, rational regime, you'd be getting a lot further right now. But as Melissa pointed out, she's absolutely correct. These people are hell bent on death and destruction. And quite frankly, their theocratic mindset is one that embraces it because that's the ultimate glory is dying in these battles

[Melissa DeRosa]

and going to all of your virgins.

[Hogan Gidley]

And going to all of your virgins. Sure. So for them, that's what they want. That's why I think there's a. It's so nuanced and so difficult. I've said this too. In these diplomatic negotiations, in war, foreign policy is tough because you're dealing with all types of people and personalities with different backgrounds, generations, centuries worth of history. And they have their own mindset. And I think, I think some of the missteps of the past were thinking these people were reasonable when they're not. They do want to kill Us all. Donald Trump understands that his mentality so far it appears, with, you know, recommendations from the top brass, the military, Rubio, Vance, the whole, whole team is telling him this military operation will crush them, bring them to the table and, and now we're going to choke them out economically that potentially has a chance. And this is something we've talked about a little bit, but I think we should explore more that could bring the people into the streets more as they begin to get unrest and realize there is a weakening of their leadership. They could topple them. That's kind of the best case scenario now. I just don't know that's going to happen.

[Mark]

It absolutely could happen. But again, in retrospect, it seems to me sending the Vice President, United States to Islamabad was a fool's errand. There was no deal to be had that day, I don't believe anyway, but,

[Hogan Gidley]

but then he's just some war hungry, power hungry.

[Mark]

No, I, I understand. I, I, I, I hear you. You're absolutely right. All right, let's look at that BBC headline number 109. Although gas price, oil prices have come down a smidge overnight, they were at a record high since 2022 at oil prices, gas prices now in the United States are crazy high. Gas prices four total. Today's average is 430 major jump overnight. And, and as somebody pointed out today, battleground, some of the battle grants, presidential battleground states and states with big races coming up in the midterms are, are higher than the national average. Hogan, at some point as we get to November, the President's going to have to pay more attention to gas prices, regardless of what he thinks of the righteousness of his cause, regardless of what he thinks of the midterm. So people have talked about gas tax holiday. People have talked about oil import ban, people have talked about another release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. None of these things are actually going to do the trick. So, so do you think the White House is just basically like focused on ending the war and hope they can end the war in time for prices to come down, or do you think they, they need to move towards some other remedies for the high gas prices?

[Hogan Gidley]

Well, they can do other remedies just to show that they're trying to address the problem in the, in the time of, of the pinch, in the time of the difficulties the American people face. But as you said, they're just band aids. You've got to end the war. That's how you get the prices to come back down. Now, it does strike me though, that under the Biden administration, higher gas prices were in fact the goal, because they wanted everything to convert from the internal combustion engine to running on gumdrops and unicorn hair, which of course is impossible. This administration doesn't want that. We're opening up drilling, we're exporting more than we ever have before. They are attempting to bring down prices, which they did. But I go back to Melissa's point before the American people, in contrast to the people of Iran in a whole host of ways, by the way, we have very little tolerance for being uncomfortable. Very little.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Hogan Gidley]

So regardless of how Joe Biden got us to higher prices, regardless of how higher prices have gone up under Donald Trump, you have higher prices, the question becomes, how do you bring them down? And if the administration solves this, and Donald Trump knows once he does, the gas prices will come down. And Mark, I get it. You say he's worried about the war and all this. Maybe he'll focus on gas prices. No, let me tell you something. This president is always focused on gas prices. If he can bring them back down, then you've got a military victory and an economic victory he can point to. If the prices stay up, regardless of the reason. I think it's a, it's a, it's a, you can win the argument. But as Melissa knows and people on this, on this, on this show understand explaining you're losing. And you don't need to explain this, you need to get the prices down.

[Mark]

Melissa.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Well, I'm, I don't believe that Biden wanted higher gas prices. But putting that aside, I agree with everything else that Hogan.

[Hogan Gidley]

But they said, yeah,

[Melissa DeRosa]

no, I think that what's so crazy about this is four months ago, the one talking point that Trump could legitimately point to concretely was that he had brought gas prices down. And now because of the war that we've started, that he started, the administration started, now we're back up to, you know, reaching highs and the American public are struggling within field it. So it's like he took something that he could have concretely pointed to and Republicans could have, as a contrast, pointed point and reversed it himself and made it worse. And the only way to get out of the gas tax holiday is bullshit. I mean, this is, this has got to be the worst.

[Mark]

Yeah. Just back to Maine for saying, is Chuck Schumer going to endorse Graham Platner?

[Melissa DeRosa]

Melissa, I wouldn't bet on it. I mean, we'll see, we'll see. But he didn't endorse Zoran Momdami. And I would say that Graham Plantner is, is worse off. I could see him holding back a little bit. I mean if he does, does that when, when the leader of the conference endorses, it's a different thing than individual members do. It's assigned to say we, this is what we as a conference now stand for. And he was very careful in New York for that reason. And so the question is now I understand it's the Senate and it's this could be a seat that swings, but does that endanger other members running in other states to say that see, this is what the Democrats are.

[Mark]

Right.

[Melissa DeRosa]

And so I think that he'll, I think he'll be cautious.

[Mark]

That's will the date. Will the DSCC endorse Platner? They'll have to. Right? They'll be the nominee.

[Melissa DeRosa]

I mean whether or not they'll have to spend money there, it just, it opens us up to problems in a lot of other states.

[Hogan Gidley]

All right. I predict one of those two days before the election. Endorsement.

[Mark]

Well, no, the question is I guess

[Hogan Gidley]

right before be like, yep, I'm this guy.

[Mark]

I'll see if they spend money. I can't wait to see the first Collins negative ads. I think they're going to be epic.

[Melissa DeRosa]

I mean this is the thing. The Republicans are much better at this than Democrats in a primary in terms of using, you know, effectively using oppo. And so I think that Graham Plantner is going to have a much rougher ride now that Susan Dowd and the general is starting.

[Mark]

Yeah, that's right. All right. Voting Rights act again, it's all very complicated stuff, but I think it's safe to say that Republican talk of picking up 20 seats with a favorable Supreme Court decision. Not the case. The, the, the people have run through the races. Even if every state that could possibly move in reaction to this decision moves, it doesn't look like it's even going to be double digits. And, and probably best case for Republicans is to net five additional seats which could end up mattering. But, but maybe not. So I don't know that we have much to say about this as we wait to see what some of these states do. But let's just ask you for a number, Melissa. What's the most number of additional seats Republican could. Republicans could net this year? In the future it could be different. But this year, what's the most they could net? Because that ruling.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Three.

[Mark]

Three, Hogan?

[Hogan Gidley]

That's probably right. Four, five at the most, maybe.

[Mark]

All right. All right.

[Melissa DeRosa]

What do you say, Mark?

[Mark]

I thought it was much higher. But after reading all the analysis this morning, I think you guys are right. I think five is probably the most and it probably won't happen. A lot of these states just don't want to do it. And Louisiana is going to be aggressive. Apparently the Washington Post reporting that the governor is going to re, is going to stop house the House primaries and, and move to, to, to change the districts first. But I, I, I, I'm, I'll say this, I, and I've been on my, my, my hobby horse, my high horse, whatever kind of horse you want to say. The Supreme Court needs to get into the reality when they've got a case before them that affects the real world, they should rule on it. They should not hold it under the normal timing, they move this one up. But they should have ruled. If they're going to rule anything that's going to affect the elections, they should have ruled like three days after they heard the arguments. Because now if states want to take advantage of this, it's, it's a mess. It's not fair to the voters. It's not fair to the election administrators. It's just not no way to run a railroad.

[Hogan Gidley]

Wasn't this last year too?

[Mark]

Didn't they hold it long time? Yes.

[Hogan Gidley]

In a non election year they could have done it.

[Mark]

Yes. I mean it just doesn't make any sense. All right, I'm going to skip around a little bit because I want to make sure we get to a couple topics. So let's talk about Candace Owens. Candace Owens is a huge platform. Most people who get attacked by Candace Owens huddle with their PR people. And the PR people say don't attack her, don't attack back. Because if you attack back, she's just going to escalate it. It's confined to the bubble of Candace Owens and, and you just don't want to take it on, so leave her alone. But every so often Candace Owens attacks someone so vociferously that they feel, all right, we got to it, we got to fight back. Okay, now in that category is my friend Jessica Reed Krass, who's written about Candace Owens in her substack Friend of Hogan's as well. And in that category is now Erica Kirk. Erica Kirk has been savaged by, by Candace Owens. Candace Owens is accused of murdering her husband. Candace Owens. They had a summit and they met and nothing came of it. And now Candace Owens is back to talking about Erica Kirk. Erica Kirk. I don't care what you think of Charlie Kirk. I don't care what you think of Erica Kirk. This is a. This is a woman who has been treated in the national town square. It's just shameful how she's been treated. And yesterday she reached a breaking point in general and with Candace Owens. She went on Charlie's podcast when. Which she appears on occasion. On which I appear on occasion. And here's what she said. This is Erica Kirk on Charlie's podcast yesterday. 119. Please.

[Erica Kirk]

This culture we're living in absorbs disagreement as a form of personal betrayal. It turns having an opposing viewpoint into a moral crime worthy of punishment.

[Hogan Gidley]

And.

[Erica Kirk]

And here's what I've realized through all of this, truly having lived through quite literal hell these past seven months, if you strip someone of their humanity long enough, you will arrive at the chilling conclusion that they don't deserve to exist at all. Every morning, I wake up to a new headline lying about me. I have comedians dressing up in whiteface. I have people saying I'm not fit to be CEO. And I have Candace Owens claiming I murdered my husband. And the list goes on and on and on. There is a serious epidemic of dehumanization plaguing this country.

[Mark]

Okay, Everything she said is very true and themes we talk about here. And I just feel so horrible for her and what strength she showed in saying that. But again, the Candace part is key because Laura Loomer is not afraid of Candace. And go read Laura's Twitter account. You'll see quite a bit about Candace Owen there as well. If I. If. If you guys were my consultants and Candace was attacking me and I said, I gotta fight back, what would you say? Should say, yeah, take on Candace. Would you say, don't take on Candace, Melissa?

[Melissa DeRosa]

I would say ignore her. I mean, I wouldn't. I. But that's different. I agree with what Erica Kirk did. I think that she.

[Mark]

Because. Because why?

[Melissa DeRosa]

Because, first of all, it. It felt like she needed to get that off her chest and she needed to say that and she needed to bring it back down to a human level. And I think that there are a lot of people who are incredibly sympathetic to her, and I disagree with everything that her husband stood for, but I feel horribly for her. And watching what she's been going through, seeing her face as they whisked her out of the White House correspondence dinner, it's terrible. It's terrible. And people do need to be reminded that there's a human element to this. Now, look, Laura Loomer has attacked me on Twitter, and, like, I could care less. And, like, I didn't respond, who cares? But, you know, so if it's. I think that, like, you're a different case if Candace Owens goes after you, I would ignore it. You've got plenty of friends and with big followings who would have your back, but, like, why engage in the nonsense?

[Mark]

Just, just. I love what you just said, although you did not disagree with everything Charlie Cook stood for. Charlie Cook thought young people should be able to buy homes. You don't disagree with that?

[Melissa DeRosa]

That's true. Not everything. But I did disagree with. With a lot of.

[Mark]

Understood, understood Hogan thoughts on whether fighting what Eric is doing. Leave me as your client out of it. Is. Is. Is. Is. Is this the right thing for Erica Kirk to do?

[Hogan Gidley]

It is. And listen, I've got a lot of experience in this. In this realm, being in the middle, and you do fighting factions, of course. Okay. I did Candace Owen show with Ali Beth Stuckey back when she was on the Daily Wire. That's how long ago. Back when Candace was more rational and more reasonable. I was at the first Turning Point event after Charlie's assassination. I flew with the vice president on Air Force Two to Oxford, Mississippi, or to Tupelo, then to Oxford, my alma mater. And she came out and gave a speech. Could have heard a pin drop in the basketball arena there at Ole Miss. And I remember seeing her presentation, and I called people after who are high up in the TPUSA organization. I just said, guys, she can't go on stage for a while. That is what you. I understand what we're trying to accomplish here. You need to make sure she's ready to have these conversations with people in front of her. I felt so bad for her. She wanted to be up there. She wanted to show a face of strength, and it was very, very difficult to watch. And that's a good thing. You should have to address these problematic issues. Her husband was killed in cold blood. People saw it on television. People saw it on their. On their phones and their devices. And after all of this, I. I say that because as shook as. As. As the. The country was, as shaken as she is, after all of this is settled for a little bit, I think she looks up and says, now, wait a minute. All this stuff, I'm letting go. I'm gonna. You know, I'm gonna hold it all in. But this piece of it where someone is accusing me of killing my husband, accusing me of making our children fatherless. I'm sorry. I'm going to say something about that. That's good. Now, Mark, if you came to me, I Would say, what do you want to get out of it? If you want to get something out of it, let's pick a fight in a way that you can try to get something out of it. You're going to get attacked, too, but that's fine. In this instance, though, she's already been attacked and she's been silent for a while. I think when it crosses that line, she is well within her rights to come out and have that conversation. As Melissa said, it looked like she wanted to get it off her chest. She'd been formatting this, formulating this, and going, you know what? Now is the time to respond. And I think it was a good response. The dehumanization line she used in there, that is a perfect explanation of what goes on now in our political discourse.

[Melissa DeRosa]

No, I couldn't agree with Hogan more. And I think that we all have to sort of stop with the. Like, this side is worse than that. We're here, we're here. It's dangerous. We all work in this business. We all have family in this business. We've all gone through our own stories of scary things, either for ourselves, for our bosses. You know the. The joke that Jimmy Kimmel made, if someone said that about Andrew Cuomo, I burned the building down. Like, it's. You don't. Like, you don't make these jokes about people dying. They're not funny. Like, we don't accuse people of murdering their husbands when she's clearly a grieving widow with small children at home. Like, at some point, we need to regain an iota of humanity and empathy and be able to look at one another as humans who can disagree and disagree righteously and loudly, but not dehumanize each other to the point where we are getting death threats and everybody needs security details. And we have to fear if you enter public service, that this is a price of entry to public service, because then you're just going to see the worst of the worst going into what is an incredibly important part of civilized society and holding us all together because no one's going to want to do it anymore.

[Hogan Gidley]

And Melissa, good points. The video of Erica Kirk leaving crying. We my date now from correspondence. We were on our way to one of the after parties, just wanting. I wonder if we should go. She saw the video, started crying. I looked at her. I said, we're going home. We're going home. And then I start seeing people online mocking the crying and saying, look at the way she looked to the right. That's a tip that says she was in on it like dissecting her tears, someone who is grieving and then the PTSD that would inevitably come to the fore after another shooting. Where you were in the room wondering are my children now going to have no parents because of a crazy assassin is nuts. And I'll tell you, Sarah Sanders was the first press secretary in history to require Secret Service protection. Now in the Trump administration, a lot of the people who are senior officials have to live on military bases. That is insane because of the credible death threats against them. This is completely a problem in our discourse and it has to be addressed.

[Mark]

Thank you both for what you said. Brilliant and lovely and important and just. My heart breaks for Erica Kirk and the strength she showed in saying what she said and making it larger than herself. She made it about all the themes that you guys talked about. I need to update you on a bunch of new stuff, then a couple more topics real quick. And then to your questions, please raise your hand if you're here on the platform. The Fox News says that the hearing for the accused White House Correspondents association dinner assailant is at 11 o' clock this morning. In Washington, Senator Schumer and Senator Gillibrand, who's the chair of the DSCC say they will but back Graham Platner for Senate, quote, after years of allowing Trump's abuses of power, Susan Collins has never been more vulnerable. And we will work with the presumptive Democratic nominee, Graham Platner to defeat her. So that happened. The markets are open. They're up modest, modestly higher. S and P500 first quarter earnings still up 24% from last year despite the pressures from the war. Future markets say there's only a 5% chance of an interest rate cut this year. And gold is rising from its one month low as the dollar strength firms. I had one other thing to tell you about. Let me see if I think of what it was. I'll think of it in a minute. Okay. Don Jr. Kind of off the radar. He was planning a wedding, looking for a wedding date. Somebody reported some gossip rag this morning, I forget where that he's holding off setting a date for his wedding until. Until the war ends. Yeah, I forget what it was. That have been the New York might have been my friends at the New York Post. I'm just saying it was. It was gossip. It was in fact wasn't fully.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Was it Page Six? Don't disrespect Page Six.

[Mark]

No, I'm not. I don't think it was. I don't remember where I saw it. I read a lot this morning. And I'm just saying it was a gossip item. It wasn't a news story. And the the Wall Street Journal reports that Amazon is considering bringing back the Apprentice. Here's the headline. Amazon, Amazon discusses Apprentice reboot with Don Jr. As a potential host. Studio executives have held internal discussions. The story says, hilariously, that they haven't actually talked to Don Jr. About it. If you look at the polls for 2028, if Don Jr. Is included, he's often second. He's often ahead of Ruby, Marco Rubio still. And you know, having covered him in 2016 extensively, the guy, it's a big following. He's got a lot of political skills. Melissa, when we think about the post Donald Trump Senior Maga, how influential do you think Don Jr. Will be in all that?

[Melissa DeRosa]

I think that J.D. vance will. I, I think there are other people who would be more influential. Don Jr. Is not his father. You know, I think that he has got obviously some of his qualities and he's his son. So, yeah, the apple tree, but he's not his father. There's only one Donald Trump. So in terms of who's going to lead the MAGA movement next, I would say it would be more J.D. vance, frankly, or Marco Rubio than, than

[Mark]

Don Junior Hogan, is Melissa underestimating the role Don will play a little bit?

[Hogan Gidley]

I think Melissa's right in this regard. No one's Donald Trump. Even his two sons, who I'm friends with and know fairly well, they will have as much influence as they want to have. If they want to come out and try and tip the scales one way or the other, they can, and they most certainly will. I've never seen anyone have as much influence over a political issue or a candidate's race than Donald Trump's endorsement. I've never seen anything like it. Junior's not the same, but he does have some of those qualities. And as we get as you begin to think about what's it going to be like post Donald Trump, there are a lot of people in the, in the MAGA movement who are like, hey, it doesn't necessarily have to be Don Jr. At the top of a ticket, but we do still want someone who in that lineage understood his father and understands the movement and has some cachet and can come out and help gin up support for whoever that may be.

[Mark]

Yeah, well said. All right. I just want to polymark it. Two more things. 113 PI markets on control of the House, control of the Senate after the midterms. I think these are interesting. First, who will control the House after the midterms? 85% chance. Poly Market Wagers say Democrats. And you can see those of you watching on the video version, the Republican. 16% chance. These have not budged. These have not budged. Going back a long way, you guys think 85% chance is about right? Higher, lower. Melissa?

[Melissa DeRosa]

I think the Democrats are going to take back the House. I'm surprised that number hasn't really moved given the recent maneuvering on all of the maps at all that it's holding that steady. But, yeah, I think the Democrats are going to control it. The question is going to be what the margin is, and I think it's going to be smaller than I had originally thought, given all of the changes.

[Hogan Gidley]

Yeah, Hogan, I'm putting it at 65. And I do think Melissa's right. If they redraw these maps because we don't know what it means yet. And I understand why this polymarket hasn't moved anywhere. But it could in part be because we don't know what's going to happen if all of a sudden this redistricting, the gerrymandering, everything starts to take shape. Those numbers could get a lot closer. And I'm still not convinced. I watched your show when you had it on. Was it Mark Penn who's polling? It was really fascinating because I do think for, for all of the chances that are being given to the Democrat party right now, they're, they're, they're, they're whiffing on a few. And I think the opening is there, but I think history is on their side, too. So we'll see.

[Mark]

All right. All right, thank you. I love when you watch Hogan, even when you're not on. And then let's do one more polymarket 114 the Senate control. And again, this is in the wake of our conversation about Maine. This has moved around a little bit. Currently, poly market wagers say Democrats have a 50 SU chance. How could this be 52 and 50? I'm a little concerned about that. Michael, what's the deal with those numbers?

[Hogan Gidley]

We're not comms people, aren't math people. Just remember,

[Mark]

we'll move. We'll move on the pre. The president just true social took another shot at the Germans saying the chance. You know, he's angry at the chancellor for saying there was no end game in the war. So once again, he's talking about Germany and the Pentagon spending and presence of American troops. All right, quick word for sponsors. Then right to your questions. Please raise your hand if you want to get in on the conversation, if you've got something new that you want to promote, make sure the world knows about what you're doing. I consider Shopify. Shopify is an extraordinarily widely used commerce platform behind millions of businesses in the United States and around the world. And 10% of all e commerce in the United States, 10% is conducted through Shopify because Shopify can make a real difference for you. Ready to use templates, AI powered tools, inventory, payments, analytics, everything you need to do to run a business, everything you need to do to make money off whatever you're doing, a new business, a new podcast, whatever it is. Consider Shopify. And consider Shopify right now because members of the two way community can try Shopify for $1 trial offer to start your account for a month $1 for a month to start your Shopify account go to shopify.com mark and sign up and try it and see if it works for you for a buck. Seems like you can't miss. If you're ready to turn your what ifs into big money, Shopify is the way to go. Go to shopify.com they have 24 hour customer support, everything you need to get going and tell the world about what you're doing and make money off of it. Easy to use shopify.com $1 go to shopify.com use the promo code mark shopify.com mark to get your free trial offer. Finally Perfectly Snug. We've been telling you about them all week. If you're having trouble sleeping and you're looking for something to help you if your sleep problems are related to temperature. Too hot at night, Too cool at night. This is a product for you. Oprah recommends Perfectly Snug or Best the best mattress topper and it will work for you with a you get a free app to use with it. It can stabilize your body temperature all night. For those who have trouble sleeping because of temperature, this can be an absolute game changer for you. And right now you can get 15% off. Go to perfectly snug.com mark use the promo code markerfectly snug.com for an opportunity to try something that Oprah calls again, best of the best that sets the bar high. But I think if you try it you will see that it is an extraordinary product. It works well and you can try it for 30 days risk free and save 15% with the promo code MARK. Again, perfectly snug.com/ promo code MARK Give it a try. Oprah recommends it And I recommend it.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money. Whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings, there's a money

[Mark]

side to every story.

[Melissa DeRosa]

Get the money side of the story. Subscribe [e-mail]

[Mark]

all right, here we go, ladies and gentlemen. Time for questions. Raise your hand. If you've never raised your hand today, be a good day to raise your hand. But we start with Diane. Diane, welcome back. Tell folks who don't know where you are and what's on your mind for Melissa and Ogan. And thank you for being part of two Way.

[Diane]

Yeah, thank you, Mark. I'm from Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and I have been on two Way before and the community has heard me complain about chemicals and the food and the glyphosate. And I won't belabor my points, but I did just want to mention it might surprise some people to learn that I voted for Chuck Grassley three times and I've actually never voted for a Democrat, even in 2008 when I was a college student living on campus and what was at the time a swing state. And I feel like anytime people talk about the MAHA voters, they are talking about these, like swing RFK voters. But when something like the farm bill comes up now and there's this actual True Real Life 8020 issue of the pesticide liability shield, it seems like Republicans just don't get that, like, this could actually change the way some of their Republican women, their loyal voters, choose to vote in the midterms. So I guess in Iowa, this wasn't even brought to the House floor for a vote because it was so unpopular given our unexplained cancer rate. Like, what do you guys think they're doing?

[Mark]

Great question, Hogan, then Melissa, and thank you real quickly.

[Hogan Gidley]

Diane, thanks for I've been to Cedar Rapids many times. What when you say, what do you think they're doing? Who's they?

[Diane]

Like, the Republicans, it just seems like they are like completely shilling for their big ag donors. Like, do they not realize we're watching them now? Like, I understand that this was never something that I voted on before. Like I said, I voted for Ashley Henson and Chuck Grassley and all these people that are pushing for this stuff. But, like, at a certain point, I'm coming to the realization like, it's me. Hi, I'm the problem. It's me. And I might just have to vote for a Democrat in the midterms.

[Mark]

Yeah, I guess. Hogan. Diane, you tell me if I'm wrong or not, but but this administration talks a big game about taking on Big Ag, but then are they really doing it? Are they really willing to take on corporate interests to, to deal with some of these issues?

[Diane]

Yeah, totally. And Lee's Eldon is like, the master of, like, saying all the right things and then doing the complete wrong thing. And I don't know if they think they're getting by with it, because it's like they've now introduced all their voters to the activists through the Maha thing. So now we're all following them on Instagram and we know all the things they're saying. And it's like, before, you could have got away with, like, what was just coming up on the newsfeed. But yeah, like, they don't realize they're being watched.

[Hogan Gidley]

Well, it's, it's funny because I, I, I think what you're hitting on is something that is vital to effectuating real change. Now, Mike Huckabee used to tell me all the time, and he's right, the more local the race, the more local the politician, the easier it is to effectuate change. So now what you're talking about is Congress, and that's a little bit more difficult. You're talking about the Senate even more difficult than that. Either way, I think it's incumbent upon people like you, Diane, to remind them who they work for, continue to bring this issue up and tell them without supporting the things you support as a constituent, you're going to have to look for, you know, different people to throw your weight behind, throw your support behind, and give them the understanding they work for you. Look, these issues were something that Republicans didn't talk about for a long time. Bobby got these things to the fore. I do think Republicans are paying attention to them now. Iowa is always interesting to me with ethanol and the things they deal with. It just seems like all the time, Republicans pay that lip service to Iowa in those presidential races and then immediately go back to, we don't need any government subsidies after we forced them all to go ethanol. And now we want to get rid of it, even though it never worked in the first place. It's very convoluted, but I think if you keep down the road, you're going making sure other people like you continue to contact the folks that represent you. I think that's how you get them to listen. I really do.

[Mark]

Melissa.

[Melissa DeRosa]

No, look, I think that your points are all valid, Diane. I think that you're right to be frustrated. I think that the administration did run on doing things like this, and they're not following through. And that's why elections happen every two and four years, so you can hold them accountable. So, you know, I think that the Maha movement, as you said, is a legitimate movement in terms of the size of the people who care about that issue and their influence and that they need to rally and they need to say to the Republicans, if you don't, you know, make good on the promises you made, then we're going to shop elsewhere and then actually follow through on that. But there are a few effectuate change.

[Hogan Gidley]

So sorry, Melissa. But there are a few things they've obviously already done with getting rid of the dies and drawing attention, things that they can knock off the list they have done on the Maha movement. Some of these things are more.

[Diane]

But a pesticide liability shield, a pesticide liability shield is so far beyond that. I mean, we're talking about giving foreign chemical companies protection from liability for harm caused to Americans. Like, I get the dye stuff. It's really important to me. But the, like, the scope of this is way worse.

[Hogan Gidley]

Right. I'm just saying some things are easier to accomplish right off the bat. Some things take more time and are more difficult. This is the latter. That's all.

[Mark]

Diane, thank you. Love having you on. Please come back. Steve, welcome in. Tell folks who don't know where you are what's on your mind. For Melissa and for Hogan, I'm from

[Caller]

Cedar City, Utah, and it's Cedar Rapids, Iowa. I got a question regarding the redistricting

[Mark]

or the

[Caller]

SCOTUS ruling yesterday. How many members in the Black Congressional Caucus owe their seats to racial gerrymandering and how many are at risk over the long term?

[Mark]

Fewer than half are from minority majority districts. I don't know the exact number, but. Fewer than half. But, but not zero. I don't have the exact number. Either of you know the number? I think it's like a dozen maybe.

[Melissa DeRosa]

I don't know the number.

[Hogan Gidley]

I don't know. But that's a great statistic to find out. Aren't they flipping a seat in Utah that's in a, in there, one seat that's a predominantly minority district that's about to go to a white person, or am I wrong?

[Caller]

It's a Salt Lake City. They're, they had a, it's in a fight right now.

[Hogan Gidley]

They.

[Caller]

Yeah, I'm not sure.

[Hogan Gidley]

They may lose it to a white. Yeah. Okay.

[Caller]

Okay. Yeah. Well, I think he was just not running again. I believe. I believe that guy was not running again.

[Mark]

Okay. Okay.

[Caller]

They've gerrymandered it so that the Salt Lake City has a seat basically on its own.

[Mark]

Your question's a good one. We just don't know the number. But, but it is a good one. Maybe we'll look into it, talk about it.

[Caller]

Does James Clyburn risk losing his seat

[Mark]

if South Carolina tried to redistrict James Clyburn? I believe they could. Okay. They could. Thank you. Thank you, sir. We gotta run. The president just put on True Social once again talking about the Save America act and the filibuster. So he hasn't given up on that. Let me just tell you about a few things coming up here on two ways later today and on next up group chat 4pm Emma, Joe, Nina, Robbie Suave and Steve Alacara discuss everything. Please join them at four for the group chat. Little complexity on two way tonight because I got a talent show to go to. We'll be live on the two way platform at 3:30 Eastern. Join us three gig. Yeah, I wouldn't miss Hogan. Hogan tap dancing, 3:30 Eastern. Joe Cunningham, former congressman, former congressman Garrett Graves and my friend Fred Davis, one of the finest ad makers in the history of ads.

[Hogan Gidley]

Hollywood Fred, baby.

[Mark]

Hollywood Fred who lives in Kansas.

[Hogan Gidley]

I work with him on dole. On Dole race.

[Mark]

Yes. Join the three of us or the four of us at 3pm 3:30pm Eastern time on Two Way. And then we'll stream live on YouTube and X at the regular time of 5 Eastern. Morning meeting tomorrow. Kevin and Larry will be here and the episode of Next up coming later today, the great Katie Pavlich of Katie Pavlich Tonight will join me. And I've already recorded my interview with Morgan Radford. You guys know Morgan Radford of NBC News. I do not know her. So, so impressive. I mean, I got to say I knew who she was. I'd seen her on tv, but I hadn't really focused on. She's got a new novel out. We talk about that. But man, great conversation. And that'll drop later today on, on YouTube and all the podcast platforms. But man, she's, she's good.

[Hogan Gidley]

Carolina. Yeah, how about that.

[Mark]

She is from North Carolina and just incredible. And she's about to have her second baby. So we talked about parenthood. We talked about a lot of stuff I've recommended to you. I'm still, I'm still thinking about all the things she said. All right, before we go real quick, I just want to give you guys a chance at having thought about it for the hour. If you'd like to revise and your Send your remarks. Remarks about the main Senate race. You're feeling more or less bullish about Platner now that he's got Chuck Schumer's support. And having thought about it, Melissa, you still think about 55 Collins?

[Melissa DeRosa]

I don't think that Chuck Schumer moves the needle. I think. I think he, if anything just put a bunch of his other members in a shitty position. But yeah, I still think Collins.

[Mark]

Hogan.

[Hogan Gidley]

What she said.

[Mark]

Okay, very funny. It's one other thing. I'm still looking. Give me a moment. Nobody go. Nobody go anywhere. There's one other news item that crossed my inbox here. I'm trying to see if I can find it.

[Hogan Gidley]

Spencer Pratt.

[Mark]

Maybe not Spencer Pratt. I wish we had time to show the ad. Maybe we'll show it tomorrow. There's some new Spencer Pratt ads in the New York LA Mayor's race. Hogan, you think he's got a real chance?

[Hogan Gidley]

I don't know if he's got a chance. I used to watch the hills, admittedly. However, I think he does have some really good ads. It's a very us against them taking from you. They're living high on the the hills and you guys are living in the slums and it's their fault stuff.

[Mark]

It's good, it's a good ad. It's definitely us. The ultimate us against that. Thanks to you, Melissa, for being here. Thanks to Hogan. Great to have you both on. We'll be back 23 hours. Kevin and Larry will be here. Have a great day everybody. I'll see you on next up and I'll see you at special time 3:30 today on the two way platform. Please join us then with some great guests to talk about everything. Have a great day everybody. And I'll. Oh, and I'm jumping over to SiriusXM. I always forget to mention it then always sometimes forget to. I'll see you 10 o' clock and call me there if you want to talk more. Have a great day.

[Caller]

Yes,

[Mark]

Sam.