War Update: U-S Air Strikes Launch Battle to Reopen Strait of Hormuz as Iran Ramps Up Drone Attacks

Summary

The Morning Meeting: War Update – U.S. Air Strikes Launch Battle to Reopen Strait of Hormuz as Iran Ramps Up Drone Attacks

Podcast: The Morning Meeting
Host: Mark Halperin (with co-hosts Larry O’Connor & Kevin Walling)
Date: March 20, 2026
[Episode Link – assumed but not provided]

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Episode Overview

This edition of The Morning Meeting focuses heavily on the rapidly evolving war in the Middle East, analyzing the U.S. military's latest efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz following a series of Iranian drone and missile attacks. Mark Halperin, Larry O’Connor, and Kevin Walling offer their real-time reactions to breaking headlines, flesh out the strategic stakes, forecast near-term developments, and weigh in on the domestic political reverberations—while keeping the tone conversational, sharp, and occasionally irreverent.

Other topics include U.S. domestic political maneuverings (especially Senate and 2028 presidential campaigning), oil markets, and audience Q&A with insights from a retired naval officer.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. War Update: The Strait of Hormuz and the Iran Conflict

(Start ~10:21)

• Escalating attacks: Both Iranian missile/drone attacks and Israeli retaliatory strikes are intensifying (10:21–11:20).
• Energy at the heart: Kevin summarizes, “Three weeks in and it continues to still all be about energy, both in Tehran and the surrounding areas, obviously, and the neighbors...” (11:20, Kevin)
• Ground operations looming: The group discusses reports of potential U.S.-led operations on Kharg Island, noting the distinction between full occupation and a targeted mission (12:05–12:40).
  • Larry: “Does boots on the ground mean a, an occupation or does boots on the ground mean you send a couple of Marine expeditionary units in, take care of business, secure an area and then get out?” (12:12)
• Public opinion: Kevin and Mark observe that Americans’ opposition to ‘boots on the ground’ is pragmatic, not principled: “They just think it’ll go badly. But if it doesn’t go badly, they’ll be...having a parade” (12:54, Mark).

2. Saudi Arabia’s Role and Leverage

(14:00–15:57)

• The Saudi dilemma: The Saudis don’t want $150 oil, fearing market disruptions and accusations of war profiteering (13:05).
• Calls for Saudi military action: Larry vents, “How about they engage in the fight and use all those great jets that they buy from us...instead of wine from the sidelines” (14:00, Larry).
• Regional calculations: Kevin notes internal divisions: some Gulf states push to finish Iran’s regime, others want quick de-escalation for economic reasons (15:08–15:57).

3. Markets & Economic Stabilization – “Scott Bessant Tap Dancing”

(16:50–20:39)

• Oil markets steady (so far): Despite war, markets haven’t crashed—credit goes to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, who “tap dances” to calm nerves (16:50, Mark).
• Unprecedented media engagement: Bessant’s savvy press presence is noted, compared to predecessors like Janet Yellen (18:27–19:58).
• Sustaining the balancing act? Larry likens Bessant’s work to “keeping all the plates spinning…” but warns: “...until it doesn’t” (20:27, Larry).

4. Prediction Markets: U.S. Escorts and Control of Kharg Island

(20:53–22:35)

• Will the U.S. Navy escort ships through the Strait by April 30? Market odds at 46%—consensus is it could happen but will take time.
• Will Kharg Island be out of Iranian hands by April 30? Odds at 36%, but panel thinks that’s low: “I’m buying yes” (22:30, Larry).

5. War Endgame, Iranian Instability, and Prospects for Regime Change

(22:35–27:37)

• Ignatius column: Mark shares David Ignatius’ view that total regime change isn’t realistic, but severe weakening is possible; the U.S. should negotiate ensuring: (1) Strait reopens, (2) uranium diluted, (3) international inspectors allowed in (24:02, Mark).
• Potential for sudden collapse: Mark floats, “Maybe all of a sudden the regime could fall...maybe the Iranian government...could topple before the U.S. ends the conflict” (25:56, Mark).
• Kharg Island strategy: Larry details two options—destroying oil infrastructure, or seizing the island to strangle Iran’s economy and defense (27:23, Larry).
  • “The answer to your question is yes, it is absolutely possible. And that is one of the strategies.” (27:23, Larry)

6. Disconnects and Alignment with Israel

(27:37–29:29)

• Kevin raises the question of U.S. and Israeli interests diverging, particularly as Israel eliminates enemy leadership, complicating negotiation channels.

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U.S. Domestic Political Notes

1. Senate and Presidential Race Rumblings

(03:36–07:43)

• Mark analyzes the uphill battle for Democrats to flip the Senate, expressing skepticism at current odds markets and highlighting the challenge in “going six for six” in battleground races.
• Granite State (NH) first-primary status drama and early 2028 positioning discussed.

2. V.P. Vance & 2028 Presidential Field

(30:04–34:37)

• Vance’s “family considerations”: A Washington Post story notes his hesitation about running in 2028 due to a fourth child.
  • Kevin: “He could run for the next 50 years... if he, if it’s the Joe Biden rule.”
  • Mark: “He only gets to be the dad of that baby as a one year old once.” (33:03)
• Debate over whether Pete Buttigieg or Josh Shapiro is more likely to be Democratic nominee; Larry stumps convincingly for Buttigieg, crediting his previous performance and organization (39:20).

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Notable/Memorable Quotes

On U.S. ground operations:

• “To me, boots on the ground is, you know, a boot on the ground.” – Larry (12:40)

On the Saudis:

• “I’m pretty sick of them saying, we don’t like this sort of thing. It’s their oil going through the Strait of Hormuz or not going through the Strait of Hormuz right now. It would be great for them to actually engage in the fight and fight alongside us instead of wine from the sidelines.” – Larry (14:00)

On market reactions:

• “Scott Bessant is tap dancing. He’s doing everything possible... he can calm the horses, and... But I wonder, I wonder though, if we hit a break point.” – Mark (20:01–20:27)

On the shifting endgame:

• “Maybe all of a sudden the regime could fall... I know we don’t see that happening on the streets, but is it possible that the Iranian government, horrible economy, unhappy populace, loss of the previous leaders... could we see all of a sudden, in the endgame... now’s the time. Rise up. We’re here for you.” – Mark (25:56)

Prediction market banter:

• “Will there be US escorts of ships through the Strait of Hormuz... by April 30th? It’s 46%. It’s down a little bit from its high. What do you guys think?...” – Mark (21:25)

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Audience Q&A Highlight: Insights from a Retired Navy Officer

(50:05–57:55)

Michael from Orange County shares on-the-ground expertise:

• Served as an officer on the USS Tripoli, now heading to the region
• Cautions about the threat of Iranian drones to U.S. ships: “If they can hit off a drone in the Strait to sink a destroyer...and 350 Americans died...that ramps up to a whole new level.”
• On messaging: “If Iran, if you think the straits a problem now, wait till Iran gets a nuclear weapon. And they can shut that strait off whenever they want...” (54:48, Michael)
• Praises U.S. military preparedness, but agrees with Mark that an airtight plan for seizing the strait is still elusive.

Panel’s Response:

• Larry: “I think that’s what you’re looking for...the president has not committed yet to give a speech at the CPAC conference…if he does, look for it be... focused on...this.” (55:55)
• Kevin: Stresses the Pacific has been neglected in U.S. strategy, and North Korea is an essential parallel.

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Winners & Losers of the Week

(40:05–44:42)

• Winner (Larry): Baseball fans, for new technology allowing real-time challenge of balls and strikes (“game changer,” 40:05)

• Winner (Kevin): Irish Prime Minister (“Only world leader guaranteed an Oval Office sit down every year” for St. Patrick’s Day, 41:05)

• Winner (Mark): Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, for steadying global markets

• Loser (Larry): Joe Kent, resignation fallout and credibility loss due to investigation for classified info leaks (42:55)

• Loser (Kevin): California Democrats, risking being locked out of Senate race due to crowded field (43:32)

• Loser (Mark): Senator John Cornyn, likely to face a tough, multi-stage battle for re-election (44:06)

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What to Watch This Weekend

March Madness:

• Larry: “Greatest sporting event of the year…only got one wrong [in bracket].” (44:42)
• Mark: “The President’s in Florida all weekend, and this will be Commander in Chief messaging through Truth Social.” (46:50)
• Kevin: Mention of March Madness and anticipation of further war and political developments.

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Notable Segments by Timestamp

• 10:21 – War update: Iranian/Israeli air strikes escalation
• 12:05 – Kharg Island, ground operation debate
• 13:05 – Saudi Arabia’s stake and levers
• 16:50 – Scott Bessant stabilizes markets
• 20:53 – Prediction markets: Ship escorts, Kharg Island
• 24:02 – David Ignatius’ endgame analysis
• 25:56 – Regime change scenario
• 39:20 – Democratic 2028 field debate
• 50:05–57:55 – Audience Q&A with retired naval officer

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Tone & Style

• Conversational, sharp, irreverent: Hosts joke about March Madness, cable news conventions, and even poke fun at each other over sports picks, but pivot seamlessly to high-stakes geopolitical analysis.
• Candid and multi-perspective: Willingness to critique both sides—e.g., Biden, Trump, Democrats, Saudis—reflecting the "conversations like no other" slogan.

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Conclusion

This episode delivers an urgent, at times wry, but deeply informed snapshot of a world at war and a domestic political scene in flux. The hosts weave breaking news, audience expertise, and market analysis into a lively, nuanced conversation—balancing seriousness with the familiarity of a backroom editorial meeting.

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For listeners who missed it, this summary should give you all the crucial context, insights, and memorable exchanges from the discussion—helping you stay one step ahead of the headlines.

Transcript

[Larry]

I did. I did. Joker's Wild ones.

[Mark]

Joker's wild. Joker, Joker. And a triple. Yes. Ladies and gentlemen, this is how we're starting the show. Welcome to the morning meeting. Larry's here and Kevin's here and you're here. And like on Romper Room, I see Brennan. I see Professor Kenny. I see Haley. Carol. I see Haley. Welcome in everyone.

[Larry]

Thank you for being part of a cigarette.

[Kevin]

Yeah, Haley, get that cigarette out of your mouth. That's not good for the kids.

[Mark]

I know there's going to be a whole new two way. That's just an intervention with Haley to get her to stop smoking. Welcome everybody. Thank you for being part of the morning meeting. It's our last show of the week. Larry, Kevin and I will guide you through the day, book through the topics of the day. A lot on Iran, but not only on Iran. We got some rock em Sock Em Smoking 2028 conversation to have here. And then time for your questions. As we say on the sleeve of my fairway and green golf shirt, conversations like no other. What do we mean by that? We mean that we talk about things the way we would talk amongst ourselves. You don't normally see that on cable news. On cable news they talk amongst themselves the way they talk on cable news. Here we do it different. And then of course, opportunity for all voices to be heard. That's a little bit different than what most of what you see elsewhere. And then finally, conversation like no other. An opportunity for you to participate by raising your hand. Anybody can raise your hand. Please do. If you've never raised your hand before, you want to be part of the conversation, do. And another way we try to be different conversations like no others. We ask you to not put el smack a in the chat. Please don't put smack in the chat. Here on the platform I glance at it occasionally and I see horrendous things. Don't do it. And the same with on YouTube. And so thank you for being here. Gentlemen, welcome and thank you for being here. Winners and losers of the week and what to look for this weekend. Larry's are yours locked and loaded. Are you still in the oconnor analysis process?

[Larry]

No, no, I've got them locked in. And I've. And I've defied your mandate, so. And I. Because I don't care. I'm just rogue.

[Mark]

They're all sports. They're all about ncaa. Yeah. Kevin, are yours locked and loaded?

[Kevin]

Either sports or Broadway with this one in that Hawaiian shirt? Yeah, they're locked in. They've been locked in For a while.

[Mark]

Okay, baby. All right, stay tuned, everybody. That's at the end of the show. But for now, let me run through the daybook for you. Here is the President's Day. There's not a lot going on right now, except of course, in the Middle east where there is lots going on and we'll talk about it. But the President. The pool covering the president today includes new media, includes notice. Notice owned by Mr. Albritton is apparently going to hire a bunch of people and try to compete with the Washington Post and they're going to say they're going to have a new name. And of course they should have a new name because that name's always sucked. Larry, what should I mean?

[Kevin]

That great. That great clip with the president saying notice. What the hell is that?

[Mark]

Exactly.

[Larry]

Real job.

[Mark]

Yeah. Larry, should they go with the Washington Star? Should they bring back Washington Star?

[Larry]

No, I actually think they should stick with notice at this point. The president has elevated that brand and they put it up on a pedestal.

[Mark]

Kevin, what should they call the new media organization competing with the Washington Post?

[Kevin]

I love that. Bring back the Star. You know, bring back evening editions and morning editions. Newspapers are the future.

[Mark]

I like Tribune. I like Tribune, too, But you know, Maureen Dowd worked at the Washington Star Star amongst many others. I'm for Washington Star, not for notice. They've already made one hire. I won't say what it is, but those who know me can guess they've already made one higher. That makes them disqualifying. They're not a serious play, so good luck to them. Here's the President's Day.

[Kevin]

It's nothing. It's not either of us.

[Mark]

We'll say that it's not either of you. I heard. I heard the correct answer. That's good. Eight o'. Clock. Once again, the president says to his team a schedule me executive time starting at 8 so I can run through Truth Social and then spend my morning with Kevin and Larry. So thank you, Mr. President, for making time for us. 10:30, Commander in Chief trophy presentation. Who's getting that this year, Larry?

[Larry]

I have no idea.

[Mark]

No idea. Is that the winner?

[Kevin]

Come on.

[Mark]

That's what I thought.

[Larry]

I was engaging with the YouTube chat. I'm sorry.

[Mark]

Yeah, that's all right. Anyway, and that's open. That's in the East Room. So the president will deliver like the Gettysburg Address about the war. So that's good. And then.

[Kevin]

And we'll see if he serves McDonald's on silver platters again.

[Mark]

Exactly.

[Kevin]

I think that he did that.

[Larry]

And Blake Harvard, our starting quarterback. He's about to become a Navy. Navy pilot. So he's going for flight training school. That man has a political future. Blake Harveth, remember that?

[Mark]

Interesting. I don't read.

[Kevin]

And we're not going to. And we're not going to hold.

[Mark]

J.D.

[Kevin]

is not going to grab a hold of that trophy this time.

[Mark]

Hopefully you guys have good recollection if you bring these things up. I remember them but I wouldn't call them. I don't read the chat but I glance at it. Lindsey asked if the president really does watch the morning meeting. Lindsey, the proof is in the pudding. Just watch how many things he says throughout the day are clearly references to the show. 1:30 policy meeting, closed press. Actually it doesn't say closed press. It just says oh no, it's not closed press. Sorry. Out of town travel pool. So two times we'll see the President and then he's going to Palm beach and he could talk on departure. So I would expect a chat a thon from the president today. Don't know what the vice president's doing. House is out. The Senate's going to work all weekend. They're still trying to solve the DHS problem. A little glimmer of hope, although still no obvious off ramp here for this thing. Tom Homan met with a group of bipartisan senators to talk about a possible solution. Undercovered continues to be how much Democratic potential presidential candidate activity is taking place in New Hampshire. For those who love the Granite State first in the nation status, I think you're going to be okay because even if the DNC doesn't give the Democrats a sanctioned event, the Democrat the law in New Hampshire says they have to go first and they'll go first. And I think the Democrats are investing there. Today a guy who said he's thinking about running. Mark Kelly and his wife, former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords are campaigning for U.S. senate candidate Chris Pappas. Who do you guys make Pappas the favorite over Sununu or not?

[Kevin]

I think that's a jump ball toss up right.

[Larry]

The polls show jump ball but I did you never bet against a Sununu in New Hampshire, do you?

[Mark]

Well, he did. He did lose once. Otherwise he'd still be a senator. Yeah. Anyway, I'm amazed at what you'll see next week on Next Up. I've got a whole thing on how people are overstating Democrats chances of taking the Senate because they have to go 6 for 6 in in New Hampshire, South Carolina. I'm sorry, New Hampshire, Georgia Maine, Ohio, Michigan, and what's North Carolina? And North Carolina, they have to go. They have to go 6 for 6 and then they have to win one more. I just don't understand why Polymarket and others are saying it's like better than even chance going six for six. And that includes beating Johnson and New. And New Hampshire, which, as you say, ain't easy.

[Kevin]

You've heard of eight for 28. Now we got six.

[Larry]

Can I give you my theory on that?

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Larry]

This is the problem, Mark. You throw these provocative things out there. We all want to talk about it. Yeah. It's because people look at the, they think about. They look at the generic ballot which favors Democrats right now and they think, oh, well, there you go. But it's not nationwide. It's a state by state context.

[Mark]

It's not correct. I tell. I tell.

[Kevin]

And candidates and candidates matter.

[Mark]

And candidates matter. I tell everybody who tells me, oh, Democrats are going to 60% chance or it's even money. I say, tell me. Tell me the four seats they net without losing. New Hampshire, Michigan or Georgia. Tell me the four. And it's easy to name. I'm giving away my whole monologue, but it's easy to say what three of them are. Everyone agrees on the top three, although none of them are sure things. Maine, North Carolina, that's close to it. Getting close to a sure thing, but it's not. And Ohio, not a sure thing. And then they got to win one more of Texas and. Or Alaska or Iowa.

[Kevin]

Alaska, Iowa. Yeah.

[Mark]

And those. None of those are. None of those are close to sure things. They're all red states. Republicans have good candidates in at least two of the three. The whole thing's nuts. All right, quick word from a sponsor and then we're going to go through some topics in addition to the ones we've done here with ad hockery. Cozy Earth. We close out the week reminding you what a great sponsor they are and how many of you already have shown the wisdom, the integrity, the fortitude to buy something@cozy earth.com and taking advantage of what's available to all members of the two way community, a 20% off discount by going to cozy earth.com and using the very clever promo code. Morning. Morning. Like the morning meeting. You can buy anything there. The bubble cuddle blanket. I think we may have a new dog picture. If we do, we'll throw that up. Yeah. Here we go, ladies and gentlemen. The dog photo. Look at that. Those two pups rubbing noses atop a bubble cuddle blanket. Couldn't be cuter. Buy anything you want on the site. The bubble cuddle blanket. Everything there, it's well made and the socks for instance, they come in calf, quarter ankle and no show are all soft, breathable and thoroughly cushioned. So support you from your first step to your last. Lose yourself in luxury with the bubble cuddle blanket. Buy the luxe bath towels impossibly soft. Discover how care in every detail transforms simple routines into moments of true comfort and ease. Head to cozyearth.com ladies and gentlemen. Use the promo code MORNING. 20% off and in the post purchase survey. Tell them to tell them I was sent here by two dogs. That's what you should say to them. See what they say to that. All right, here we go.

[Matt Ebert]

I started with one shop. No college degree, no big investors. It was just a willingness to work. Over time that one shop turned into a multi billion dollar business called Crash Champions. All the lessons I learned along the way came from the grind. And that's what my show Pod Crash is all about. We have real conversations with people who've built things the hard way. We talk to founders, athletes and blue collar leaders who kept going when things got tough. You'll hear stories of grit, leadership and growth. Plus real world lessons you can take back to your team and your life tomorrow.

[Larry]

When you get more momentum, you step on the gas.

[Mark]

That's how you get separation from everybody else. I was at Harvard Law School as blah blah blah. I looked up. Let me tell you something. There's kids in my neighborhood putting in sheetrock that is smarter than you. AI is going to disrupt a lot of stuff.

[Kevin]

It is never going to disrupt physical

[Mark]

blue collar trade skill.

[Kevin]

And the guy just looked at me and he said it's bloody impossible. So I asked him this question.

[Mark]

I said, it's impossible.

[Matt Ebert]

Unless that's Podcrash with me, Matt Ebert. Watch on YouTube and listen wherever you get your podcasts.

[Mark]

Here we go, guys. The war overnight. More strikes by the Iranians and on the Iranians. 103, please. Israel continues to hit Tehran. This is the times of Israel. IDF launches new wave of air attacks on Tehran after missiles fire. Missile fire targets Jerusalem and northern Israel. Some more of the Gulf states have been hit. They tried to hit the Saudis again and Tehran. 104. Al Jazeera Tehran warns of intensified strikes if energy sites are targeted. Since the president said don't do that anymore. As far as we know, that hasn't been done, but people are still worried about it. All right, guys, just your overall view of where we are now 30,000ft. We'll drill down on some specifics. But Kevin, where are we now in terms of how the thing is going? What's going to happen next in the conflict? Is it about Carg? Is it about the coast? Is it about negotiations? Where are we going next?

[Kevin]

Three weeks in and it continues to still all be about energy, both in Tehran and the surrounding areas, obviously, and the neighbors. President yesterday, yesterday said no boots on the ground. There's indications that there may be some boots on the ground, whether it be in Carg island or as we talked about with the nuclear stockpiles. Obviously more assets are moving into the region and this announcement with some of our allies that they're in a position to help us without any kind of solid guarantees of whether it be ships or manpower or women power to the region with those seven countries. So still a lot more questions than answers as we hit the three week

[Mark]

mark, Larry, are we headed towards some sort of ground operation on the coast at Kharg at this point or.

[Larry]

No, it appears that way. And I think the Axios article this morning that spells out the options there on Carg is pretty informative. And. Yeah, and I guess what might see from the White House and the Pentagon over the course of the next couple of weeks as they move close to that operation is does boots on the ground mean a, an occupation or does boots on the ground mean you send a couple of Marine expeditionary units in, take care of business, secure an area and then get out something very targeted? If they can politically sell that. Yeah, and we'll see if they can sell that. To me, boots on the ground is, you know, a boot on the ground.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Kevin]

Which the American people are very adamantly opposed. And I think it all comes down to the question in that polling, right. In terms of, you know, in an invasion force like we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan or something targeted like.

[Mark]

I mean, I mean, they're, they're opposed, but if it happens and it goes great, they're not going to be opposed. They're not opposed in some principled way. They just think it'll go badly. But if it doesn't go badly, they'll be, they'll be, they'll be.

[Kevin]

Given recent history. Yeah.

[Mark]

They'll be having, they'll be having a parade in the hero of canyons, the Saudis. I've been waiting for this to happen. Finally, the Wall Street Journal today wrote the story. The Saudis are like, yeah, we don't really like all this stuff. This could threaten us being super wealthy. And so they're trying to figure out what to do. They don't want price to go to $150 a barrel, which the Journal story says they now project it might. And they think that would be bad, even though they'd make more money in the short term. It would disrupt markets, and it could hurt. It could hurt demand, and it could make them look like they were profiting off the war. So let's say the Saudis don't like the status quo. They have a military, they have influence in the region. They have a weird relationship with Iran. But if they wanted to force peace talks, they could certainly propose it. Obviously, MBS has a pipeline to Jared, and he can call up and say, hey, we want this thing over. Larry, if Saudi wants the war over, what can they do?

[Larry]

I got an idea. How about they engage in the fight and use all those great jets that they buy from us and all those pilots that we train and actually fight because they have a vested interest in this. And I'm pretty sick of them saying, we don't like this sort of thing. It's their oil going through the Strait of Hormuz or not going through the Strait of Hormuz right now. It would be great for them to actually engage in the fight and fight alongside us instead of wine from the sidelines.

[Mark]

Larry, is it too soon to make a 911 joke?

[Larry]

It's always too soon for a 9 11.

[Mark]

Okay, never mind then, Kevin.

[Larry]

Just ask Gilbert Godfrey.

[Mark]

Yeah, I know. I'm holding back. Kevin, what could the Saudis do? Larry suggests they could become part of the military alliance and start helping take out the Iranians. They could use their air power to. To deal with the straight. How big's the Saudi navy? Does anybody know how big is their navy?

[Larry]

I don't know.

[Kevin]

I know their air force is incredibly strong and they're standing.

[Larry]

And their pilots are very good.

[Mark]

Yeah, their pilots are well trained. Kevin, what else could the Saudis do besides the military track? Could they help end this some other way?

[Kevin]

Again, you have different factions here, right? You have a number of Gulf states that say, don't end it now because the regime is still in power. And not only is the regime still in power, but now they've been in power because of the Strait of Hormuz and the ability that they had this choke point now going forward, and they know just the leverage that they have. So you have some Gulf states saying, finish the job here, take out the regime. And you have some others that are saying, let's end this quickly because we're Worried about our bottom line. And if you look at the history, the 40 year history going back, it's really been the Saudis versus the Iranians in these proxy wars. Obviously Iran and Iraq had a war of eight years in the 80s funded primarily by the Saudis. So every other country has done the Saudis dirty work, to Larry's point, without them actually directly getting engaged with their military.

[Mark]

Correct.

[Kevin]

So they have this delicate dance that they play. They've got a lot of influence. If they join the Abraham Courts, it's all over in terms of the Palestinian question for the Israelis. But again, we'll see what leverage they actually exert.

[Mark]

We let Cutter get away with playing footsie with terrorists for years. We've let the Saudis for get, have a free ride for years. Let them give the $200 billion. Here's how big their Navy is. I'm now told they have what says 13,000 to 50,000 Marines and Navy personnel. I don't know, that's a pretty big range. 50 combat vessels, seven frigates. They got, they got stuff, they got mine sweepers and they're all probably built

[Kevin]

by, they're probably all built by American

[Mark]

McDonnell Douglas or whatever.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Larry]

Okay, guys, we did have a strongly worded letter by 12 Arab nations yesterday condemning Iran. So they did that.

[Mark]

Very strongly worded, very strong and they used a muscular font. Muscular. Okay, here's, here's what I think is a hugely undercovered story. Markets have not collapsed. Oil is not at 150. And how has this happened? Part of it is priced in the stock. Trump, Trump, every day when he sees something, he says one things. And these clowns who posture as the most sophisticated people in the world make billion dollar trading decisions based on what Trump said at a photo op. It's ridiculous. He'll say anything at a photo op. It has nothing to do with anything. But they're, they're swayed by that. But the other thing that's going on is Scott Bessant. Scott Bessant is, is, is, is uncompared to other previous treasury secretaries. Understands both the private sector and, and even though he's new to it, government. And here's what's happening. 109, please. This is courtesy of my art department at AI. Scott Bessant is tap dancing. He's doing everything possible. Previously he said, okay, Russia, they can sell oil that's on the seas for a month. Now he's saying maybe Iran can sell their oil. And he's spinning it as this is great for us. This is great for us. To have Iran help us out of our difficulty with supply by, by selling oil. Great. Good for us. There's always rumors that he's, he's doing a little dabbling in the market in ways to influence things. He goes on TV whenever he needs to, to keep things calm. So, Kevin, how, how long can this man tap dance? If the war is four more weeks, which is, I believe, what it currently will be, four more weeks. Can he tap dance successfully for markets for four more weeks?

[Kevin]

Yeah, like any good South Carolinian, you know, he's in it for the long haul and keep, and can keep it up. I'm in Charleston right now, one of his home bases. And I think, you know, he's been incredibly effective as a surrogate for this administration. You know, you go back in recent memory of other treasury secretaries, you really haven't seen someone so engaging in the press and the media. And, you know, he's been the financial surrogate for this administration across tv. And you see Hegseth becoming obviously the military arm, really doing, you know, a lot of the work that previous presidents have done in terms of engaging. And he's the president's, I think, you know, smart to have him continue to do that.

[Mark]

Larry, he's no Janet Yellen.

[Kevin]

No, that's, I knew Janet Yellen. I served with Janet Yellen.

[Larry]

Well, and speaking of Janet Yellen, another reason why Scott thus, and I don't think everyone said, oh, if he wants the Fed chair job, he can have it. I don't think Trump ever wanted to move him over there because he's so effective doing what he's doing right now. And you're right, he understands the private sector and the government. He also understands the, the international, the diplomatic and national security elements of his job. And I remember a predecessor being able to wear all those hats as strategically as he did. He chimed in yesterday during the Oval Office visit with the prime minister of Japan. And I think you could almost see the needle on the Dow starting to react to what he had to say with regard to Iran's economy imploding in itself, even though it's all speculation. Mark. But, yeah, but his voice has so much weight there. Until it doesn't.

[Mark]

Well, that's right.

[Kevin]

And the markets know he has the president's ear.

[Mark]

But that, that's, that's my question. Can he keep it up for, for, for another month? Because a lot of what he's doing is not visible. A lot of it's behind the scenes. But you can just tell how much markets, you know, they'll key off the President saying some crazy ass thing in the Oval Office or some straight thing or some purposeful thing. But Bessant is like, he can, he can, he can calm the horses and. But I wonder, I wonder. I wonder though, if we hit a break point. That's what I'm asking.

[Larry]

I agree, I'm impressed with what he does, but it feels like those guys on the old variety shows that we keep all the plates spinning, you know, and then they. Instead, the music gets frenzied and he has to keep running really fast to get the plates going. That's what it feels like. Something.

[Mark]

You know what song we play during that thing? We play Flight of the Bumblebee.

[Larry]

Flight of the Bumblebees.

[Mark]

Yeah. If we can find a non copyrighted version of Fly the Bumblebee be just

[Kevin]

playing now that we've got all these sound effects.

[Mark]

I like your version, Larry, but I want the real one. All right, let's do a couple poly markets on the war. These are both super interesting to me. First 107. Will there be US escorts of ships through the Strait of Hormuz? I forget the date, but when it pops up, I'll tell you. Escorts, commercial ships through Hormuz by April 30th. So that'd be in five weeks. Will there be escorts by then? It's 46%. It's down a little bit from its high. What do you guys think? Is that a good number or would you put it higher or lower? Larry?

[Larry]

I. I've been optimistic, but after the Axios article today, I. Four weeks sounds about right. So what's that? That's before April 30th, right?

[Mark]

Yeah, yeah.

[Larry]

I was hoping it would be like Easter. That's what I've always been.

[Mark]

When is Easter? When is. When is Easter, Larry?

[Larry]

Easter is the first week.

[Kevin]

It's early. It's early.

[Larry]

So that's two weeks from now. Now it looks like four weeks is a better window.

[Mark]

All right, Kevin. By April 30th, well, you think there'll be US escort ships. 46% chance. Kapali Market. What do you say?

[Kevin]

I mean, hopefully we won't need that, but I think that's, you know, every indication it's going to take a few weeks for the Navy to. To get ready to do that. It wasn't going to be an immediate thing and the President's obviously pushing really hard to make that happen.

[Mark]

Yeah. All right, let's market another thing which is right on. On the news and super timely, as Larry said, because the Reporting and access and a couple other places. This is 108. Will Carg island be under Iranian control? No longer under Iranian control by, again, April 30th. So five weeks from now or so, five and a half weeks. 36% chance it will not be under Iranian control, guys. I'll say that seems low to me under the current circumstances, but. Kevin.

[Larry]

Yeah, I'm buying. I'm buying. Yes, there. I'm absolutely.

[Kevin]

Yeah, it does.

[Mark]

Kevin.

[Kevin]

Yeah, it does seem low. I agree.

[Mark]

Yeah. Yeah. Now, one question we all have is, is what counts as a provocation. We know one. Here are two things through which we're seeing the glass darkly, okay? But we know some things. We know Iran can still fire missiles, ladies and gentlemen. We know they still have a drone program. We know they can. Whatever it is they're doing to keep us out of the Strait, we know they can do it. So however much command and control is disrupted, however much that they have, loss of capacity and Netanyahu said yesterday, they can't build anymore. Maybe that's true, maybe it's not. They can still fire stuff off. We also don't know what's going on with the Iranian people. We see these executions yesterday seemed extremely provocative for Iran to execute some people, clearly they want to send a domestic signal, but that only riles up the international community, reminds everybody that there's a reason for regime change besides Iran's projection of threats overseas outside their borders. And now we have the question of will they negotiate? We've seen reports throughout the conflict. Oh, Iran wants to talk. The president has said that several times publicly. Oh, the US Would like to negotiate. Oh, the Omanis want back in to negotiate. So what's the status, guys, of this ending? Here's David Ignatius. If you want to know what's going on here in the end game of the war, read David Ignatius, because he's extremely well sourced. Here's what David writes this morning about what a settlement could look like.

[Larry]

Okay.

[Mark]

In the Washington Post, a headline. The Iran war is metastasizing. Trump needs an end game. Coercion, diplomacy, or both. But the president needs to choose a strategy and implement it. David's not. He's about 50, 50 critical. Not critical, but he focuses on. The president has to be more disciplined to come up with something specific to end this, rather than the improvisational nature of what's gone on so far with a lot of success, but still some downsides. Here's the. Here's what David writes about. About this. The path out of this war begins with realistic objectives, the United States and Israel probably can't topple the government, but they can weaken it so severely that its threat can be managed in an acceptable endgame. Missile and missile production facilities are destroyed. The nuclear program and its scientists truly have been obliterated, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard is hobbled. Next, if Iran opens a serious negotiating channel, Trump should demand at least three conditions. Iran must agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, allow free passage for all vessels. It must verify, remove or dilute down more than the 400 kg of highly enriched uranium, and must allow international inspectors to verify its nuclear program. Maybe such an agreement would only be temporary and the regime would use the pause that followed to rebuild its missile and nuclear programs. But that would end the conflict for now. So, guys, as I said, we don't really know what's going on in the Grand. And Iran, there's very little reporting, but I continue to be hopeful, mostly just based on logic and history rather than any reporting that I do myself or see. Maybe all of a sudden the regime could fall. I know we don't see that happening on the streets, but is it possible that the Iranian government, horrible economy, unhappy populace, loss of the previous leaders. Larry, could we see all of a sudden, in the end game, before the US Ends the conflict, Bibi and the president make one more try and say, hey, now's the time. Rise up. We're here for you.

[Larry]

It's definitely possible, especially if Carg island is in play. You know, the president has two choices with Carg Island. Carg Island, I think I saw the stat, and I know you'll correct me if I'm wrong, Mark, but it's something like 90% of the oil that drives.

[Kevin]

90%, yeah, exactly. Right.

[Larry]

Goes through Carg island, so you can obliterate it. And the President already says, listen, we left some of the oil production there. We didn't touch that. But we can do it at any time. And that's true, we could. But then, you know, you've got a shambles there for whatever the next regime is, or they can take it. And that's what the aforementioned boots on the ground would be. If they do that and they have two more weeks of just annihilating their, their missile production and all the other ability that they have to engage, then they've just done two major things that could topple the. The government eventually, and that is strangle their economy and leave them defenseless. And everyone who says, well, why haven't they done it yet? We're literally at 21 days. This is the fifth largest military on the planet and it's been entrenched and hunkered down for nearly 50 years. That doesn't happen overnight. But and then, by the way, I'm getting a lot of this because I'm not a military expert, but a couple of the people quoted in that Axios article today, affiliated with foundation for Defense and Democracies, they've been writing about this. They believe Rear Admiral, I think it was Mc McDougal I believe is the one that really is focused on this, said that they're a couple more weeks away from sort of accomplishing that if they can take Carg island as well.

[Mark]

So really well said.

[Larry]

The answer to your question is yes, it is absolutely possible. And that is one of the strategies. The question on Carg is do you destroy it and cripple their economy or do you take it and cripple their economy?

[Mark]

Brilliantly said Larry Best. I've heard anybody explain it.

[Kevin]

Kevin well, and also to the outstanding question too, is what is Israel's game plan as well, and where are we in alignment and where are we not in align? You know, Tulsi Gabbard was up on the Hill yesterday talking about some of the divergent end game with Israel. Obviously, you know, the president, we talked about this, likes to negotiate. Problem is, and one of the good things that Israel is doing is taking out senior leadership throughout this entire process. So the problem is, you know, there isn't any and we don't know the status of the Ayatollah right now. They, he supposedly released another statement. But if there's not anyone on the other side of the table to negotiate with right now because they're fearful of being killed or they have been killed, there's no avenue for any kind of negotiation to provide this kind of ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. So again, that's one of the key variables is what's the end game for us and the end game for Israel and where are they in alignment and where are they not in alignment? Three, three weeks in.

[Mark]

Also brilliantly said, and I'll remind everybody, we were, we were going to get a Witkoff Kushner visit to Netanyahu in the second week of the war. It was canceled. If it took place, it took place secretly. But at some point there's going to have to be a conversation, a face to face conversation. Maybe Bibi will come to Washington.

[Kevin]

But it's, but we would have known. We would have known, Mark, at this point, probably, if A Wyckoff or.

[Mark]

Not necessarily. I'll say that.

[Larry]

Can I ask real fast because I. One missing element here that I just can't quite get the answer to. Mark, you said, you know, could they begin the negotiations or who are they negotiating with exactly in Iran? Who's.

[Mark]

Yes, whoever. Whoever.

[Kevin]

That's. That's the problem. I mean, well, the president is still alive. Interesting.

[Mark]

The foreign minister could. And the president. I mean, it's possible the foreign minister and the president could.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Mark]

Say they're in charge. Larry, did you turn your lights? Did you turn your lights?

[Larry]

Yeah, I lost a light. When you play a video, I'll go fix it. I didn't want to leave you. All good?

[Mark]

All good. All good. All right, guys, two more topics not related to Iran, then winners and losers, then your question. So here we go. That's my Flight of the Bumblebee.

[Kevin]

The plates.

[Mark]

Gotta get the plates spinning. Spinning. Scott Besson. Now get over here to Japan. Now we're here to China. Now back here to Europe, Cuba. Thank you, Paul. Love that. Love that. That's a good version.

[Larry]

All right, new reconciliation.

[Mark]

Two. Two more time, two more topics. And then we got it all this

[Kevin]

morning and every morning. This is. Yeah, come on. You don't get this anywhere else.

[Mark]

And then to your questions. Washington Post is a story about the impact of Vance on. On the war and how he's kind of betwixt in between on a variety of things. Support the president, but obviously more associated historically with being opposed to things like what's going on in Iran. Here's the story from the Post that also has a paragraph about his potential presidential aspiration. Says while the political impact of the war could be significant, Vance has maintained in recent private conversations that he hasn't yet decided whether he will seek the presidential nomination for 2028, according to two people who discussed the matter with him. One of these people cited Vance's fourth child, due this summer, and said, the vice President has put a priority on his family life and is unlikely to make a final decision until he and Usha Vance see how another baby affects their lives. Huh. When I read that, I thought, that sounds so familiar. That thought of Vance not running because he's having another baby. Where had I heard that before? Where I'd heard that before. I knew where I'd heard that before. Please play 110, please. Where was that? Hold on. Well, it's a long time before voters have a say in this, and I still think that there's a chance Vance will decide with his young children not to run. I just wouldn't rule that out. But if he decides to run, I find it hard to believe that he wouldn't get the president's endorsement. And then the question is, as the RNC Finance chair, which is a unique slot to be given to an incumbent vice president with presidential ambitions, as someone who still retains an extraordinary amount of goodwill within the party, as the front runner in the polls, I think he'd win every element of the invincible primary well before any votes were cast. So, so that's what would lead him to get Trump's endorsement and I think to largely clear the field again well before anybody voted to voters, to voters, eventually, if he refused to debate, if he didn't talk more about not running, do I talk more about him? But I think the question. I thought I brought it, I thought I brought up the new baby, but I have.

[Larry]

Why is Trump asking about Rubio all of a sudden?

[Mark]

Hold on. Kill that thing out. We don't need to hear any more of that. That's me with Ryan Garduski. I've been saying this for a while. If you watch Megan McCain's interview from months ago with Usha Vance about kids and how they, how they, kids are so important to them, and then the announcement of a fourth baby, Kevin, I just, I just think it's far from a sure thing that he'll run. And the same thing I say about Gavin Newsom might not run because of his kids. And people call me cynical and stupid, but just watching the Vances and being a young family, knowing he could run in eight years, 20 years, do you think it's a sure thing he's going to run or. He might not.

[Kevin]

He might not. And to your point, funny enough, we, we share a birthday. He's actually one year, exactly one year older than me. The, the vice president, he's 41. He could run whenever he, he's got. If he, if it's the Joe Biden rule, he, he could run for the next 50 years.

[Mark]

And he only gets to be the dad of that baby as a one year old once.

[Kevin]

Exactly right. And I think, you know, you had that great interview with Gavin Newsom. I really, you know, I think we're all so cynical and everyone uses the family excuse. I want to spend more time with my family when they're caught with a prostitute or something like that, you know, or some scandal. But I really do think, especially, you know, people with young families, that that is an actual consideration, especially with how nasty it's gotten and how target it's gotten and how kids, you know, going back to Chelsea Clinton. It's even worse now with the microscope on these folks that that actually is a real consideration.

[Mark]

Larry, I have a bad memory, but I don't believe you ran for president when any of your children were three years old.

[Larry]

As far as I know. I did think about it. I did. But then when my fourth was coming, I do, I relate to Vice President Vance. I have four kids, too. And there is something about having the fourth that makes you just want to be a homebody and stay at home. That said, he's in the public arena. He's a man in the arena right now. He has a keen sense of duty to his nation. And there is a strong argument to suggest that it will never be a better time for him to run for president than right now. You talk about the stars aligning and the ability to do.

[Mark]

No question. But people who have a fourth baby, I'll engage in pop psychology here. They love babies. They love having a baby. And this is the last one. And if he runs for president, both of them are going to get less time with that fourth baby than they otherwise would.

[Larry]

I agree. And having a young child is very different than having a baby. The baby is completely different.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Larry]

No, I believe that this is a legit story here. We'll see what happens. It's hard. It's hard to deny that enticing

[Mark]

call

[Larry]

to run for all. Don't forget the Chris Christie. Everybody said Chris Christie should run in 2012. Missed his chance when he was the hot thing. And he goes plenty of time. There's no chance Chris Christie could run again. Yeah.

[Mark]

So I try not to turn this program into a daily episode of Mark Was Right Again. But sometimes it's just, it's an, it's inexorable. Pete Buttigieg, I've been telling everybody from for a long time, do not underestimate his chances of being the nominee. And some of you tell me he shouldn't even be on the list of 8 for 28. I'm telling you, he has won a caucus. He has finished second in a primary. No one else running can say that, including Kamala Harris, one of the smartest political reporters in America. Adam Rand of Politico. He writes the Playbook on Fridays, Indianapolis based. Just a genius reporter.

[Kevin]

He's known Pete his entire career from Indiana.

[Mark]

Correct. And he and he spent time with him recently and interviewed him. I will say, and I didn't talk to Adam about this. If you read his item in the Playbook Today in his article he quotes Buttigieg on the record and then he quotes somebody on background as a somebody familiar with Buddha judges strategy. But then he makes sure to include quotes where the syntax is pretty clear who he's talking to. I'll leave it to you guys to figure it out. Here's what he says. Buddha judge is known for going everywhere to get his message out in the media. In 2026 he's taking that strategy offline to traveling virtually everywhere Playbook spent Buddha just tells playbook he spent half of 2026 on the road hitting 10 states so far including Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and in Michigan plus a swing through New Hampshire. He's not hawking a book, he's out stumping. And as as Adam makes clear, he's spending a lot of time with black candidates. He's he's endorsing black candidates. He's meeting with them office holders. So Kevin, how seriously should are you taking Pete Buttigieg as a potential nominee?

[Kevin]

Incredibly seriously again to your point one Iowa came in second in New Hampshire down at the Edmund Pettus Bridge at Mother at Ebenezer with Reverend Warnock. He knows his his issues and is correcting them. And like Joe Biden during the Obama administration he can go anywhere in terms of campaigning across the field. I always love the guy. Not so much now because he's obviously grown out the scruff. He's taken a play out of my playbook and he's spending a lot more time on Fox 2 My Key Things. So I'm not particularly pleased with him right now on the scruff and Fox front. But he's an effective surrogate.

[Mark]

Certainly you are huntingly like Pete Buttigieg. Have you ever been there? Have you ever been mayor of South Bend?

[Kevin]

I've not. I'm not Larry. Let me I've been to South Bend though. Go Navy or go go another day for everybody.

[Larry]

Larry what is I actually do and

[Mark]

they're gluten free by the way hungry Larry. Larry, forget winning the nomination. Think about Pete Buttigieg is a general election candidate and do it in the context that is the only way to do it to make sense. What battleground states could Pete Buttigieg win in a general election? Of the seven battleground states which will almost certainly decide the presidency yet again in 2028 which of those could could he win?

[Larry]

Of the seven which the election were held today, whether the election were held

[Mark]

when it's going to be held, Project forward it's not going to be held.

[Larry]

No, because two years from now, the issues will be very different. But could he Michigan? Could he win Michigan?

[Mark]

Could he win Pennsylvania?

[Larry]

Michigan will be easier to win.

[Mark]

Could he win? Could he win the three Midwestern? Could he win North Carolina?

[Larry]

Don't know if he could win. I don't know how he'll play in Pittsburgh. Could he win?

[Mark]

Could he win Georgia?

[Larry]

I don't think so. Not without a black. A strong black vote. And could he.

[Mark]

Could he win?

[Larry]

And that's his.

[Mark]

That guy's the nominee. He's going to have a black running mate, I promise. Could he win? Could he win either the western battleground states,

[Larry]

Maybe Nevada? I don't. I don't think so.

[Mark]

Not the correct.

[Larry]

Has been trending.

[Mark]

The correct answer is he could win them all.

[Larry]

He could win them all, Mark.

[Mark]

He could win them all.

[Larry]

Depends on who the opponent is.

[Mark]

Well, of course it does. I'm not.

[Kevin]

When you say that. You got to do the McLaughlin voice, though, Mark.

[Mark]

Wrong. He could win them all. All right.

[Larry]

I don't know.

[Mark]

Exit quest. Exit quest.

[Larry]

Just having a black running mate is not going to get the black question.

[Mark]

Mandatory prediction. Who has a better chance of being the Democratic nominee for president in the year of our Lord 2028? Pete Buttigieg or Josh Shapiro? Kevin.

[Kevin]

Josh Shapiro.

[Mark]

All the way, Larry.

[Larry]

Pete Buttigieg.

[Mark]

Whoa. Bonus. Mandatory prediction. Who has a better chance of being the nominee? Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg? Kevin Walling.

[Kevin]

Kamala Harris.

[Mark]

Larry o'. Connor.

[Larry]

Kamala Harris.

[Mark]

Wrong. The correct answer is now Kamala Harris right now.

[Kevin]

But it was just in Washington last night. He was doing something back in.

[Larry]

I don't know why you're surprised. The reason Buttigieg has a better chance is because he's done it before. He's got the context. He's got the infrastructure. He's already won prime. I'm telling you, though, no one credits

[Mark]

here's a better chance than Kamal Harris because she's not going to run and he is. Okay, Larry. Winner of the week.

[Larry]

My winner of the week is. Baseball fans. I don't know if you saw this, but we baseball teams now have a chance to challenge. Balls and strikes. Last night, first one happened in a spring training game. Watch this.

[Mark]

The strike zone. In the minors, you're doomed to fail in the big leagues. Pitches. A breaking ball outside. We had our first challenge and the call is overturned on a pitch that was right down the middle of the plate. That was called a ball. Thank you.

[Larry]

How many times have we been screaming at the television when the ump gets it wrong? By the way, very.

[Mark]

That was, that was really wrong.

[Larry]

It was very wrong. Many charitable observers are pointing out the fact that that is Major League Baseball's first female umpire that happened to be behind the plate. But trust me, all the umpires get it wrong. This is a game changer. It's going to make the game better. Very excited about that, huh?

[Mark]

Whose technology is it? Probably North Korea. Okay, Kevin, Winner of the week.

[Kevin]

I'm just amazed that we have the power that Larry just did to play the video. That's. I mean, that. I didn't know we had that power. That's pretty extraordinary. My winner of the week is the Irish Prime Minister.

[Michael]

The T shirt.

[Mark]

I'm sorry, I'm sorry to interrupt you. You mean you didn't know you could use video in.

[Kevin]

No, I'm just saying that, that, you know, Larry put up his finger and say, play that video. I didn't, you know, I didn't know we had that power.

[Mark]

You got the whole, you got the whole, you got the whole apparatus at your disposal. Kevin.

[Larry]

You gotta give tips to the production team. Kevin, you gotta.

[Kevin]

That's right.

[Larry]

Give them a little something something at the end of the week.

[Kevin]

So my winner this week is there's only one world leader that's guaranteed an Oval Office sit down every single year, and it's the Irish prime minister. On St Patrick's Day, Mihail Martin was back. The Taoiseach strike zone in the minors.

[Mark]

You're doing.

[Kevin]

Effectively engaging. There he is right there in the Oval with the President again. I know, right. Effectively engaging, making a case for Ukraine, making the case for Europe, right next to the President, not taking him off defending his friend Keir Starmer of Great Britain. And so the Taoiseach, the Irish Prime Minister had a great, great week. And the Irish ambassador, Geraldine Bernayson, right next in the hallway. They're an effective duo every. Every St. Patrick's Day week in Washington.

[Mark]

Okay, Winner of the week. I referenced it before Scott Bessant, who has been given the authority to try to keep the world economy calm during this. And again, we're not seeing in public all the stuff that he's doing, but it is, it is an extraordinary achievement. The pressure to end the war would be significantly higher if this stuff weren't happening. And oil's up and gas is up and markets have been down for the week, but it could be way worse. Larry, loser of the week.

[Larry]

As much as it pains me, but I think I get cred when I call out people on my side. Joe Kent is the Loser of the week. His very publicized resignation from the center for Counter Terrorism was then immediately followed by buying the podcast Starter Kit. He did an interview with Tucker Carlson. He did an interview with Candace Owens, and it was revealed that he was under investigation for months now for leaking classified information to Tucker Carlson. He really hurt his credibility here and didn't have the impact that he thought he would have. This week, Joe Kent is the loser.

[Kevin]

Kevin, I'm taking a play out of Larry's playbook, calling out my side, too, that my loser of the week are California Democrats. We talked about this yesterday. They can't get their crap together. And it's a good chance you might have two Republicans win the primary election and go on to the general locking out Democrats in that state. So some of them have to step back and check their egos and say, I'm not going to win this race no matter how much money I raise or how much time I spend on television and unify behind a few key Democrats. But we'll see if they do that. We got 60 days out before ballots go out.

[Mark]

All right, lose loser of the week. Larry will like. This one's Sean Cornyn. He may get Trump's endorsement. If he doesn't, I don't think he can win the runoff. But even if he gets Trump's endorsement, he might still lose the runoff. And even if he gets it, even if he gets the nominate, whether he gets the endorsement or not, if he wins the runoff, it's pretty clear now he's not going to have a cakewalk in the general election. So this guy is going to have to fight on like seven different stops along the way if he wants to be reelected as senator. Good luck, Big John. Big bad John. Larry, what to look for this weekend?

[Larry]

Sticking with my sports theme, I'm all over the March Madness. Come on. This is the greatest sporting event of the year. It's much better than the Super Bowl. And that, my friends, is my bracket from the opening round yesterday. As you can see, I only got one wrong, so I'm already winning in all of my tournaments.

[Mark]

You've only gotten one wrong. There have been four major upsets.

[Larry]

I know. Thank you. Thank you.

[Mark]

Which upsets did you pick?

[Larry]

I called them all. I had high. I had. What do you call it? High tides or whatever that you had.

[Mark]

You had North Carolina. You had North Carolina losing.

[Larry]

I had VCU beating North Carolina.

[Mark]

Yeah, the only.

[Larry]

The one that I missed.

[Mark]

I'm calling bullshit on this, Larry.

[Larry]

That's my priority. Boys, I'm bringing you visual Evidence right there. That's my bracket.

[Mark]

You picked VCU to beat North Carolina.

[Larry]

Yes, I did. Yes, I did.

[Mark]

Larry, you're gonna win.

[Larry]

I. I think so. I think I.

[Mark]

Which are you in the official.

[Kevin]

You have money on this, Larry? Larry, do you have money on this?

[Mark]

Which pool are you in? Are you in the official one?

[Larry]

This is more. I'm in, like. Well, CBS automatically puts you in a big one, but more importantly, I'm in a pool with my brothers. We do a weekend trip to Vegas every fall, and whoever finishes in first does not have to pay for a

[Mark]

meal that I've always considered you like a brother. Just to be clear. Hey, if you're. If. If you. If you have picked VCU in your bracket, please put that in the chat. Put in. I picked VCU because no one picked vcu. Larry. I don't know how you talking about.

[Larry]

That wasn't even the biggest upset. That wasn't even the biggest upset was Wisconsin going down to.

[Mark]

What was it called? High tides or high points. All right. Yeah. And. And lastly, I'll call. I'll call on. I told you never to do sports for this thing. And you did. Two of three were sports.

[Larry]

That's correct.

[Kevin]

Because.

[Larry]

Because there's more to life than politics, Mark.

[Mark]

Okay.

[Larry]

America cares about these things, Kevin.

[Kevin]

I mean, I'm watching March Madness, too. That was my choice. But I'm not with Larry in terms of the success of his bracket, so.

[Larry]

Thank you. Got to get a life, Mark.

[Mark]

There's. Oh, I. I love it, but it's not a. Whatever. I love. I love all of it.

[Larry]

That's all right. I'll be watching this weekend.

[Mark]

I'm going for a hearty perennial on what to look for. The president's in Florida all weekend, and this will be Commander in Chief messaging through Truth Social. So I'll just be watching what the president does on True Social.

[Kevin]

All right, you got it. You got to make another trip down there. We got some good tidbits. The last time you were in Palm beach when the president was down there. Mark.

[Mark]

I know, I know, but I'm on the road for two weeks, so I won't be there anymore anytime soon.

[Larry]

I don't.

[Mark]

All right.

[Larry]

Everybody can pick it up. But I did. I picked vcu.

[Mark]

I believe you. I believe. I'm just expressing.

[Larry]

No, you called on it.

[Mark]

It's what we call in the TV business, folk incredulity. All right, a quick word from a sponsor, and then to your questions, please raise your hand if you want to be in on the Conversation. Michael has his hands up I believe for the first time and he will be first. Here we go. Shopify. If you're starting something new, a new website, a new business, a new online anything new podcast, try using Shopify. Shopify makes easy to use all I give you all the tools you need to launch correctly, to monetize, to do everything you need to do to promote hundreds of ready to use templates, AI powered tools, everything under one roof. Inventory and payments analytics, marketing tools help you reach your current customers and find you new ones through social media and elsewhere. 24 hour customer service. So if it's time to turn those what ifs into yeah, if you're trying to turn your what ifs, I say, I say, I say, I say if you're trying to turn your what ifs into wow, try try Shopify right now. You can try it for a dollar a month. Larry, how many dimes is that? A dollar a month.

[Larry]

10 times dollar a month. That's $12.

[Mark]

10. No, a dollar a month. How much is a dollar? 10 dimes dollar a month. Free trial or trial today for a dollar a month. Go to shopify.commark to try using. I know I was running how many dimes.

[Kevin]

We were more verbal guys than.

[Mark]

Go to shopify.com/shopify.com, try it and if you do, you will hear this sound. This is Go back to Shopify. I don't like the initial sound. It's weak.

[Kevin]

This is it.

[Michael]

The world as you know it is over. Completely done. It's not about to be over. It's over.

[Mark]

Some of the scientists who helped build AI are now sounding the alarm. I was selling AI as a great thing for decades and I was wrong.

[Larry]

I was wrong.

[Mark]

There's a longer term existential threat that

[Matt Ebert]

will arise when we create digital beings

[Mark]

that are more intelligent than ourselves. We have no idea whether we can stay in control. While others say that AI will usher in unfathomable abundance, I've always believed that it's going to be the most important invention that humanity will ever make.

[Larry]

This really will be a world of abundance.

[Mark]

And among these fears and these fantasies, we seek the story of our future. Listen to the last invention on Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Kevin]

Foreign.

[Mark]

Here we go. Michael, welcome in. Tell folks who don't know where you are, where you bought the shirt and what's on your mind. For Kevin and for Larry.

[Larry]

First day of spring.

[Michael]

Mark, Kevin and Larry, it's great to join you today. I'm in Southern California, in Orange County. I'm a retired naval officer who,

[Mark]

who

[Michael]

is living here now.

[Mark]

Where'd you serve, sir?

[Michael]

I served all over the world, so spent most of my time in the Asia Pacific, but I did a tour in Europe, Japan.

[Mark]

Were you on carriers?

[Michael]

I was on amphibious assault ship, so we carried the Marines like Tripoli is. I. I was on the USS Tripoli, who's headed to the Middle east right now with a load of money.

[Mark]

Amazing. How long did you do that?

[Michael]

I was on trip Lee for two years, but I was in the Navy for over 20 years.

[Mark]

Thank you for. Thank you for doing that. What, what, what caused you to join it? Originally?

[Michael]

I was kind of. I'm originally from New Orleans, Louisiana. I didn't really know what I wanted to do with my life. I thought I wanted to go to law school, did an internship, didn't like it. And my dad said, well, you better figure out what you want to do. So he said, join the Navy and see the world. And I did. I would. You know, I've seen the entire world and on the U.S. navy, which I love so much, so I had the time of my life.

[Mark]

Thank you. Thank you, thank you, thank you for doing that. I interrupted you. You were going to say how much you love two Way, I think.

[Michael]

Yeah, I just love the show. I. I've never raised my hand before. You were spot on the 2024. I'm sorry, the recent presidential election. 2024 election. You were the only per. I was like, this guy knows exactly what he's talking about.

[Mark]

Very nice of you. Thank you.

[Michael]

I'm a three time Trump supporter, but I do believe that the messaging on this war has been abysmal. I think Trump has tried to bob and weave his way around the war like he does on other subjects and his staff or, you know, the Secretary of Defense and others just can't keep up with, you know, what he's saying because, you know, he communicates so much with so many people and takes calls from reporters and they're just trying to keep up with him. But when the commander in chief doesn't have a, you know, exact message, things can get very ambiguous. And when people's lives are on the lines, the American public just gets very weary of that. It's not like the market, it's not like tariffs. You know, Americans are dying. And I think, you know, the messaging has not been. Well, even though I am a huge

[Mark]

Trump supporter, Michael, you're speaking for tens of millions. I. We all take your point on the messaging, and I think probably Larry and Kevin both want to ask you about that, but how do you feel about the operation and its goals and execution separate from the messaging?

[Michael]

I think it's been, I think it's been outstanding, what the military has been doing. And I know you think that. Oh, well, I don't know this, but I've heard that you said, you know, maybe they didn't plan as much for this as they should have. And I can tell you the US Military has been planning for this exact scenario for the past 25 years.

[Mark]

Yeah, Michael, just, just so I'm not misunderstood, I agree about the overall mission, but I don't think, I don't think my position on a lack of planning can be contradicted because they don't control the strait currently.

[Michael]

And it's one of the hardest, it's one of the hardest problems we know that we're going to have to face with a war with Iran is how do we control the strait?

[Mark]

But they're scrambling. But they're scrambling to come up with a plan in real time. So I don't think they're scrambling.

[Michael]

They're, they're giving the president options, but

[Mark]

they're having, they're having, they've had days and days of emergency meetings about how to do it. They didn't know. They didn't. Look, you can say. I'm not saying there was never any thought given to it. I'm not saying they didn't. They hadn't heard of the straight. I'm not saying the Pentagon hadn't presented them options. What I'm saying is the proof is in the pudding. They are now some of their biggest supporters, Newt Gingrich and others, say this war cannot be won unless they control the straight. They don't know and they don't know how they're going to do it.

[Michael]

So I agree.

[Mark]

I, I don't think it's a debatable point. They do not have a plan currently, and they've been scrambling to come up one to control it. So I'm only, I'm only pressing you on my point here. No, yeah, I don't, I don't want to go on the weekend misunderstood about what I've said and what I meant. Sorry.

[Michael]

Yeah, I think you're, I think your, your, your insight is, is valid. I think they have given the president options right now, and those options he does not want to take right now. And what, what has thrown a wrench into everything in the last two years is the asymmetric threat from drones. Because if one of Those drones hits a US Navy destroyer and kill, you know, if they, if they can, if they can hit off a drone in the Straight to sink a destroyer. There's 350 sailors on that ship. If you can imagine what would happen if one of those destroyers got hit with a missile or something like that and 350Americans died. Now you're like that. That, that ramps up to a whole new level. Yeah.

[Mark]

Michael, I want to, I want to let Larry and Kevin talk to you and ask you questions. But if you've got a question, you've made some great points and love having you here. But if you've got a question, please ask it. And I'm going to turn you over, Larry into Kevin.

[Michael]

Yeah. And I think you're intimately familiar with this question, but I don't know why the Trump administration and others have not applied the same situation in North Korea. You saw this in the 90s. We tried everything under the sun to not let them get a nuclear weapon. There's only nine countries that have nuclear weapons currently. Right now, North Korea is one. And when North Korea got that nuclear weapon, they now hold us hostage in the Asia Pacific theater. They shoot missiles all the time, you know, in the Sea of Japan. They threaten our troops in South Korea and they threaten all our allies and partners in the region. And there's nothing we can do about it because they have nuclear weapons. So if Iran, if you think the straits a problem now, wait till Iran gets a nuclear weapon. And they can shut that straight off whenever they want because they will threaten to detonate a nuclear weapon against Israel or our, our troops or allies in the region. And I think Trump should bang that message over and over again that this is the time they're at their weakest point ever. If we don't stop them now, they are going to get a nuclear weapon and we will never get it away from them. The regime will never leave. Just like North Korea.

[Mark]

Yeah, Michael, that's great. I'll turn you over to Larry and then to Kevin. Larry?

[Larry]

Yeah, I mean, I think you just answered. I was going to ask you what messaging do you want to hear from them to help clarify and sell this? I think you just answered it, Michael. I think that's what you're looking for. And I can tell you it's interesting. The president has not committed yet to give a speech at the CPAC conference, which is next week. I'll be down there, by the way, reporting on the scene for the morning meeting.

[Mark]

Where is, where is CPEC does.

[Larry]

Where is CPECler it's in Dallas this year in Dallas. But if he does look for, look for it not to be a classic, you know, Trump stem winder all over the place, weaving, I bet it'll be very much focused on over half of it just on this also. Real fast. Michael, are you in the Yorba Linda northern Orange county area? Are you down by Newport coast? Because I'm trying to discern the architecture pressure.

[Michael]

I'm down by San Juan Capistrano. So I'm right, right by San Clemente.

[Larry]

I was close with the Newport. Okay, so you're.

[Michael]

Yeah, I'm down by Newport South Orange County.

[Larry]

I grew up in Newport. I grew up there.

[Michael]

Oh yeah.

[Mark]

Beautiful, beautiful.

[Michael]

Congrats to you.

[Larry]

Yeah.

[Mark]

Kevin.

[Kevin]

Michael, we need to do a two way just with you, my friend and, and learn from your 20 years, especially talking about the potential of those amphibious, amphibious forces moving into the region. I think the point that you make on North Korea is an excellent one, I think and I've been making the case for a long time that we've, that the US policy has taken our eye off the Pacific for a long time empowering China to really control that sphere of influence. I think previous administrations made the fault, the wrong calculation of trying to have China contain North Korea. Right. And we, we said, okay, you know, China is the, the number one trading partner. They're the ones with the influence over North Korea. They're the ones that actually allowed this to happen and Democratic administrations and Republican administrations allowed that to happen without us making that pivot towards the Pacific where you served effectively and you saw it come up yesterday with the Prime Minister of Japan in the Oval in terms of how to contain and manage the situation with North Korea. But that, that's a huge problem for us going forward certainly.

[Mark]

Yeah, hold on one second guys, because I need to read you a post on true social from the President of the United States who obviously once again reacting to the conversation here, just posting Michael's criticism. Just exactly, just posted, just posted this. Without the usa, NATO is a paper tiger. They didn't want to join the fight to stop a nuclear powered Iran. Now that fight is militarily won with very little danger for them. They complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay but don't want to help open the Strait of Hormuz. A simple military maneuver that is a single reason for the high oil prices so easy for them to do with so little risk. All caps, cowards and we will all caps. Remember President Donald John Trump. Michael, how'd you Find two way

[Michael]

I found it. You were on another person's podcast and I just thought your insight was unbelievable. I thought you were, you're like an umpire, you know, better than that umpire that Larry showed. You call balls and strikes better than anyone I've ever seen. And I think you just call it, you know, Kevin and Larry and the other Hogan and all the other guests you have just call it down the middle and you don't get that anywhere else really. It's just guys that are given their straightforward analysis, they have a team but they also call balls and strikes how they see it. And, and I just, that insight is, it's an intellectual insight that's above everyone else.

[Mark]

Michael, thank you. You two will be going in our upcoming promo videos.

[Kevin]

Yeah. You're going to join Holly yesterday. Yeah. With her.

[Mark]

Holly and Michael. Michael, thank you.

[Michael]

Take care.

[Mark]

Hold on, hold on, hold on. Michael, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on. Sorry I gotta go because I gotta jump over to SiriusXM for the next hour. So I'm going to leave you guys in the hands of Larry and Michael. I will say five o' clock tonight. Two way tonight. Last show of the week. It's already been done. We did it last night. But watch it when it rolls on YouTube. Incredible conversation with Nomi Khan's Alex Castellanos, Alex Eisenstadt about 2028 and we talk about the prospect of Donald Trump being the moderator of the Republican presidential debates and all the implications of that because, because all, all four of us agree he's going to want to do it

[Larry]

and he'll be, it'll do it around a conference table.

[Mark]

Exactly. Be his decision to make. It'll be like the Apprentice and there'll be 72 of them. Anyway, watch that tonight at 5 and, and we'll be back Monday at 9am and again Michael, thank you. Larry and Kevin, great to see you. Gentlemen. I'll see you soon. And you can finish, finish the show and I'll see you on Sirius XM in a bit.

[Larry]

Yeah, I missed the clock there. Sorry about that. Michael, I was just going to tell you my, my kids are down there. I have a son in law at Pendleton and my daughter's with the Navy in San Diego. So my, I don't mind everyone knowing my email. It's public. Larryoc townhall.com Shoot me an email because I'd love to buy you a beer next time I'm down there. My daughter actually they got married at the, at the mission there at San Juan Capistran.

[Michael]

Oh yeah. That's right. Beautiful Pendleton. I'm right north of Pendleton. So. Hey, God bless you and your. Your family. I know you got skin in the game, so. So thank you for. For what they do and what your family does.

[Larry]

Appreciate it.

[Kevin]

Thank you, Michael.

[Larry]

That means a lot coming from you. Thank you.

[Kevin]

Bravo Zulu. Yeah.

[Michael]

Kevin, have a good. Y' all have a good weekend. You, too.

[Larry]

Thank you, sir. Gosh, Kevin, that right there is what makes this thing we do every morning so special, isn't it?

[Kevin]

Yeah, it really does. Michael. Michael's a total rock star. As I said, we. We've got to do these two ways just with, you know, we could do an hour talking about his 20 years and what he saw, especially in the Pacific, too, that we talked about in the North Korea element as well.

[Larry]

Well, and what he was doing right there, what he described was, we want

[Kevin]

to bring him on if he was an army guy or, you know, maybe an Air Force guy, but certainly the Navy all the way.

[Larry]

What he was describing is exactly what is off the coast of Iran right now. That's. It's a Navy vessels, amphibious vessels with. And each they've got, I think, three Muse now, 2500 Marines each of those three Mews, two out of Pendleton and one out of Okinawa. So when, again.

[Kevin]

And the point that he raised, the big fear is, you know, with those coastal positions with the Iranians, have you maybe have 30, 40 seconds before that. That missile or that drone hits the side of that ship. And that's the. You know, that's the dangerous element of that. And to be on guard 24, seven. That's the problem right now. Just because, again, I mean, our ships are the best in the world, obviously, but 30 seconds is a short amount of time to shoot that thing out of the air when it's coming at you.

[Larry]

And he used the right adjectives, asymmetric warfare, which. Which, you know, we've all sadly, for the many decades now have gotten to understand, which is the hardest thing to plan for. And what's the thing Schwarzkopf used to say, you know, we have our plan, but then the enemy gets a vote.

[Kevin]

Storm in Norman. And that's the pride in New Jersey.

[Larry]

Yeah.

[Kevin]

Or there. Well, Mark already. Mark already already kind of teased his promo, you know, in terms of two way tonight at five.

[Larry]

So nothing more to promote other than other than watching basketball this weekend. I. I love that we went rogue and. And sort of upended Mark's rules. He's already lost control of this show, which is, yeah, frankly, I think an improvement. We're we're making.

[Kevin]

Exactly. Exactly. Well, hope everybody has a great weekend. And of course, don't obviously forget about switching over Serious right now for the next hour with Mark and then obviously to the after show with Professor Kenny. That's always in the chat in terms of how to join that and the rest of the team there to continue the conversation. And again, thank you, Michael, for being part of this community and coming live with your questions and comments. That's what the best part about this whole community are, all of you and learning from you.

[Larry]

I will see you at noon live on my show right here on whatever platform you're watching on. I go live at noon. And don't forget my [e-mail] my morning radio show. It's a great way to start before you get to the morning meeting. Kevin.

[Kevin]

Well, and we got the next three hours lined up. Serious Professor Kenny after show and then Larry at noon and then Larry and

[Larry]

then you can enjoy your first day of spring.

[Kevin]

Exactly right. Thanks, everybody. Have a great weekend.