What Does a Key Texas State Senate Vote This Weekend Tell Us About the Upcoming National Midterms?

Summary

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The Morning Meeting (2WAY)

Episode: What Does a Key Texas State Senate Vote This Weekend Tell Us About the Upcoming National Midterms?

Date: February 2, 2026
Host: Mark Halperin with panelists Kevin and Hogan

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the aftermath and national implications of a surprising Texas State Senate special election result, with a focus on what it signals for the upcoming U.S. midterms. Host Mark Halperin and his co-panelists, Kevin and Hogan, break down the Texas election's lessons for both parties, discuss congressional dynamics, immigration, and public sentiment, and feature a segment on fact-based policy analysis from USAFacts.

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Key Topics and Insights

1. Texas Special Election: What Happened and Why It Matters

Segment Start: [09:03]

• Background:
  A Democratic candidate, a Lockheed machinist, won a Texas State Senate seat in a district Trump previously won by 17 points.
  • “A swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed.” — Kevin referencing Ron DeSantis on social media, [10:44].
• Republican Reaction:
  • DeSantis and other Republican consultants alarmed: “This is bad news, folks. This shows decline with Hispanics, young people, with women.” — Mark, [10:50].
  • Even Trump, who posted three times to support the Republican, distanced himself:
    “I didn’t hear about it… I’m not involved in that. That’s a local Texas race… Things like that happen.” — Trump, via Jackie, [11:33].
  • Hogan’s take: "This matters in large part because Donald Trump did win the district by such a big margin… If it’s indicative of a broader mindset of many voters out there, then you have to figure out how to stop that, change it, and look in opposite directions." — Hogan, [12:15].
  • Hogan gives Republican concern a 7.2 out of 10 on the “doom” scale, [14:05].
• Democratic Optimism:
  • Quality of the candidate and local messaging cited as key (“running the right folks that match the district”). The winner “works for Lockheed, which is like working for GM in Detroit,” [14:38].
  • Lower Republican turnout without Trump on the ballot; Democrats buoyed by the size of the swing, [16:16].
• Redistricting Backfire:
  Mark notes Texas GOP may have overplayed map drawing, possibly costing them more House seats, especially with declining Hispanic support, [15:44].

Notable Quote:

“I’ve long said this, that Donald Trump is the biggest natural turnout machine I have ever seen on a Republican ballot. And if the RNC… don’t know how to bottle that… it’s going to be very difficult.” — Hogan, [13:20]

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2. What Does the Texas Result Mean for the National Midterms?

Segment Start: [14:12]

• Potential for Democratic Gains:
  • “If they can win this district… Does this mean Democrats can win 40 House seats?” asks Mark.
  • Kevin predicts “the ceiling is 40,” but only if current trends continue ([16:28]).
  • Both panelists agree it’s not likely to exceed 40 due to the lack of many competitive districts ([16:39]).
  • GOP faces demographic headwinds and questions about turnout without Trump himself.

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3. Polling and the National Mood

Segment Start: [16:53]

• Public Sentiment:
  • Voters are in a “throw the bums out” mood; Pew poll shows nearly half of Americans see Trump’s actions as worse than expected ([17:01]).
  • Economic perception poll: Slight majority says Biden was better for them economically than Trump—"that's gotta kill the president," says Mark ([17:31]).
  • Fox News polls: Democrats have a significant lead in the generic Congressional ballot ([17:50]).

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4. Markets React to Political Uncertainty

Segment Start: [18:41]

• Markets displayed “object lesson in volatility,” especially gold and silver dropping sharply; NASDAQ also down, [18:41].

• Kevin Warsh’s Appointment:

  • Question remains if markets are reacting positively to the new appointee—panel consensus is it’s too soon and that global events and stability have larger effects, [19:21].

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5. The Machinist Who Won in Texas: Messaging and Lessons

Segment Start: [20:00]

• Candidate’s Approach:

  • Focused on solutions, not partisanship: “We had to focus on solutions, not partisan politics. Bringing communities together, that’s what it’s all about in Texas.” — Texas winner (via Morning Joe), [21:08].
  • Emphasized affordability and everyday issues: “People are struggling out here, choosing between rent and medicine. That shouldn’t happen in such a great economy like we have,” [21:43].

• Panel Discussion:

  • Kevin: “Not trying to build the Democratic brand, but running your race to the local issues is the way to do it,” [22:14].
  • Hogan, contrarian: “If I were teaching a class, which I have before, I would put that video up and go, don’t do this,” saying the winner was light on solutions’ specifics ([22:48]).

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6. ICE and Congressional Negotiations

Segment Start: [24:11]

• Current Calm and Protests:
  • Issues of federal ICE operations and tensions over protests in Minnesota and elsewhere ([24:11]).
  • Negotiations over ICE and DHS funding:
    • Slim House margin complicates passage of CRs (continuing resolutions).
    • Big policy sticking points include warrants and funding for sanctuary cities; negotiations likely to be heated, with a new deadline of Feb 13 ([26:46]-[29:36]).

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7. Epstein Files Release

Segment Start: [29:40]

• Panel consensus: The Epstein file disclosures have not satisfied public demands for transparency or accountability—majority of the public believes the government is still withholding information ([30:26]–[31:42]).

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8. Foreign Affairs Flash Round

Segment Start: [32:00]

• Quick takes on Iran and Ukraine diplomacy:
  • Panel splits on whether a U.S.-Iran deal or a Ukraine-Russia deal is more likely ([32:00]-[32:21]).

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9. Kennedy Center Renovation

Segment Start: [32:43]

• Announcement: Kennedy Center to close for two years for renovations—panel speculates on political optics, given Trump’s habit of delivering projects ahead of schedule ([33:19]).

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10. Media & Political Image Management (Gavin Newsom’s Book Rollout)

Segment Start: [34:29]

• Media Influence:
  • Newsom gets dual New Yorker and Vanity Fair coverage with high-gloss Annie Leibovitz photos.
  • “He is the darling of the left right now,” says Hogan, while Mark points out Trump and Melania never got such treatment ([35:55]–[36:43]).
  • Discussion of whether such media rollouts help or hinder a supposed populist brand.

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11. Listener Questions and Commentary

Segment Start: [38:02]

On Sanctuary Cities’ Legality

• Raised by Jackie (Pittsburgh): Is it legal for sanctuary cities to thwart federal immigration law? ([38:12]–[41:44])
  • Legal ambiguity persists; the issue is whether federal law can compel states/localities to use their resources to aid enforcement.
  • “It’s going to be challenged in Congress because one of the things that, if you want to have a debate over DHS, Republicans are saying, fine, we’ll have that debate. Why don’t we just strip the funding from sanctuary cities?” — Hogan, [39:19].

On Economic Policy Consistency (Tariffs, Deportations, and Wages)

• Raised by Wickham (Michigan): Why do Democrats oppose policies (tariffs, deportations) that theoretically could help working-class wages ([45:32]-[48:55])?
  • “Anything Trump, it’s reflective. They just hate it.” — Hogan, [47:57].
  • Kevin: “Lowest population growth in a generation… If we do remove all those folks… who will be out there in the fields doing this work?” ([49:00])
  • Complexity around labor markets, legal vs. undocumented labor, and conflicting economic and demographic pressures.

On the Absence of Common Sense in Both Parties

• Raised by Carlton: Do party insiders ever discuss common sense and practicality? ([51:07]-[53:44])
  • “So much of our politics is performative, right? Just for media and attention and actually not getting things done.” — Kevin, [52:58].
  • Hogan: “Yes, both parties champion common sense, but they also both think they’ve cornered the market on it.” ([53:46])

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12. Fact-Based Policy Analysis: Immigration by USA Facts

Guest: Richard Coffin, USAFacts
Segment Start: [55:09]

• Deportations: ICE on track for 470,000 this year—much higher than final year Biden, but still only a portion of total removals ([56:09]).
• Detentions: ICE detention population has doubled in the last year.
• Distribution: 212 ICE detention centers nationwide—nearly double the start of the administration ([58:27]).
• Border Crossings: Illegal border crossings between entry points have plummeted from 250,000 two years ago to 6,500 last month ([59:20]).
• Definitions Matter: Differences in how “deportations” and “enforcement actions” are counted across administrations ([61:02]).
• Mission: USA Facts seeks to present government data accessibly for public understanding, aiming for nonpartisan, fact-driven discussion ([62:26]).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Texas Race’s National Message

  “This matters in large part because Donald Trump did win the district… And then all of a sudden, the flip happened.” — Hogan, [12:15]

• On Candidate Quality

  “The real lesson learned is candidate quality matters.” — Kevin, [14:38]

• On Turnout Machine

  “Donald Trump is the biggest natural turnout machine I have ever seen…” — Hogan, [13:20]

• On Party Mentalities

  “Both parties champion common sense, but they also both think they’ve cornered the market on it.” — Hogan, [53:46]

• On Fact-Based Policy

  “It is so important that we’re all playing from the same set of data.” — Kevin, [63:08]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 09:03 – Texas special election debrief
• 10:44 – GOP reaction, DeSantis quote on loss
• 12:15 – Why the result matters for Republican strategy
• 14:12 – Lessons for Democrats, discussion of gains ceiling
• 16:53 – National polling, generic ballot, public mood
• 18:41 – Markets volatility, Warsh’s appointment
• 20:00 – Hearing from the Texas-winning machinist
• 24:11 – Immigration, ICE controversies, protests
• 29:40 – Epstein files recap
• 32:00 – Iran, Ukraine, and Kennedy Center updates
• 34:29 – Gavin Newsom media strategy
• 38:02 – Listener Q&A: sanctuary cities legality
• 45:32 – Listener Q&A: tariffs, deportations, wages
• 51:07 – Listener Q&A: common sense in party politics
• 55:09 – Immigration facts & data segment (USAFacts)

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Original Tone and Style

In keeping with the fast-paced, sometimes jocular, and deeply political energy of network newsrooms, the panelists balance wit with wonkiness. Mark Halperin anchors with dry humor and rapid-fire questioning; Kevin brings measured Democratic commentary with optimism and subtle digs; Hogan provides excitable Republican responses, often with a touch of sarcasm. Panel banter is smart, occasionally sardonic, and trades insight for partisanship without shying from candid skepticism about both parties.

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Summary Takeaways

• The Texas State Senate special election may be a bellwether for a challenging 2026 midterms for Republicans, highlighting the risk of waning turnout and shifting demographics.
• Both parties must grapple with messaging, candidate selection, and the national mood, which trends towards dissatisfaction with the status quo.
• Immigration, congressional gridlock, and media image-making remain dominant policy and political themes.
• Fact-based, nonpartisan data is increasingly central to meaningful public debate.

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For deeper context, listen to the full show and consider visiting USAFacts.org for more on the immigration data shared.

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Transcript

[Mark]

This is it. The world as you know it is over. Completely done. It's not about to be over. It's over.

[Kevin]

Some of the scientists who helped build.

[Hogan]

AI are now sounding the alarm.

[Richard]

I was selling AI as a great.

[Mark]

Thing for decades and I was wrong. I was wrong. There's a longer term existential threat that will arise when we create digital beings.

[Carlton]

That that are more intelligent than ourselves.

[Mark]

We have no idea whether we can stay in control. While others say that AI will usher.

[Hogan]

In unfathomable abundance, I've always believed that it's going to be the most important invention that humanity will ever make.

[Kevin]

This really will be a world of abundance. And among these fears and these fantasies.

[Mark]

We seek the story of our future.

[Kevin]

Listen to the last invention on Apple.

[Mark]

Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[James Patterson]

I'm James Patterson. I write way too many books. Welcome to Hungry Dogs. The title comes from my maternal grandmother, Isabel Zelvis Morris. Nan used to always say, hungry dogs run faster, James. And I've been running fast ever since. Here's what will be coming your way soon, and this is a really terrific list. I think you'll hear from some incredible people like Stacey Abrams. Yay. BJ Novak.

[Kevin]

Yay.

[James Patterson]

Kathy Bates, Dolly Parton, Josh Gad. And Pope Leo. Okay, maybe not Pope Leo, but who knows? Maybe he'll show up. Hungry dogs run faster. Thank you, Grandma, for turning me into a hopeless, obsessive compulsive. Listen to Hungry Dogs with James Patterson. That'd be me on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. Thank you, thank you, thank you, foreign.

[Mark]

Everybody, this is the morning meeting. Thank you for being here. Kevin and Hogan and I have a lot to get through with you today. Glad you to be part of it. We run this like a network news division morning meeting. Lots of topics and we speed through them as much as we can before hitting your participation. If you want to get in on the conversation, please raise your hand. We have a special guest at the end of the program today I think you'll be quite keen on hearing from. So stay with us and we'll get to the topics in a moment. Gentlemen, stupidest thing in America is happens in Pennsylvania every year. And it happened this morning. And again, it is the stupidest thing in America. Roll tape. It's pun. Gentlemen, gather rounds. It is my job this February 2nd.

[Kevin]

To look to the skies and report.

[Mark]

Back to you that there is a shadow here on my ground. Six more weeks of winter abound. Now, before I ask you gentlemen to weigh on and Whether you agree with me, this is the stupidest thing in America. Here's someone who has a dissenting view. The governor of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. 122, please. Here's what, here's what Governor Shapiro says about this. Best day of the year, better than his kid's birthday, better than the Sabbath. Better than every other day, apparently. Kevin, what do you think of this absurdity?

[Kevin]

I'm with Bill de Blasio on this one. I don't know if you just drop them all. Just, just, just drop them on its head and let's move along. I don't want to hear from Peter though. Any Peter fans. I apologize ahead in advance for that comment.

[Mark]

Hogan. Hogan.

[Carlton]

What?

[Mark]

What the heck?

[Hogan]

I think it's the second reason he wasn't chosen to be the vice presidential.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Hogan]

From common areas.

[Mark]

First two pro, two pro Israel and two pro.

[Hogan]

And then two punks, I believe.

[Mark]

Just to be clear, I'm not against the groundhog. I'm against the, those guys in the hats and the whole thing. And what kind of animal is it?

[Kevin]

A rodent. What, what is a groundhog? It's a mammal. Right. But what family is it in? Do we know? It should be, it should be.

[Mark]

It should be edible.

[Hogan]

I saw someone yesterday post if this thing sees its shadow, I'm putting it on the grill by five.

[Mark]

Yeah. All right. Let me run through the day book and then we're going to get to some really interesting topics today. Today, particularly this special election in Texas which, which the alarm bells are ringing. This is not a normal special election that people are ignoring. The president today as of now has no public events. 3:30 he's doing signing time in the Oval Office. Not sure what that's about. Vice President no public events that we know of. Dan Bongino returns to his podcast today so we'll be interested to see what he says there. Dr. Oz, Secretary Kennedy have an event today at 1:00 clock announcing Action for Progress. Congress is two House Rules votes today. One on the funding package. Not clear how that will go. And then one on the contempt vote for the Clintons as the negotiations very confusing story. We'll talk about in a minute about how they're going to resolve this question of funding for ICE and all these, all these actions. Once you open the door to a new deadline, Congress just screws it up. So we'll see what happens there week ahead. Wednesday is when they're expecting the full vote assuming the kids out of rules of contempt against the Clintons. And it's going to pass, folks. And Democrats are quietly telling the Clintons negotiate this before Wednesday or you're going to get a contempt vote. Scott Bessant is on the Hill on what day is that? Wednesday. Also attending the House Financial Services Committee hearing the annual report of the Financial Stability Oversight Council. Also on Wednesday, the chief senior chief safety officer of wh.

[Carlton]

Mo.

[Mark]

You guys been in a Waymo out in la?

[Kevin]

Yeah, those things.

[Mark]

I love Waymo. I love wh. But, but people have concerns about their safety disregarding the fact that human beings have way more accidents than Waymo. Anyway, the chief, the chief safety officer of Waymo is testifying on the Hill on Wednesday. Thursday in Abu Dhabi, trilateral meeting. Ukraine, Russia, us. We thought that was going to be this weekend. But instead the Russians went to Miami and met with Witkoff there. Maybe so Witkoff could go to the two Trump related weddings. I'm not sure why they switched that up. And Jimmy Kimmel has Don Lemon on tonight. I believe Jimmy Fallon has Matt and Ben on this week. And Colbert amongst his guests, the great James Taylor. Great James Taylor will be amongst.

[Hogan]

He's fine.

[Mark]

Go Bear's Carolina in my mind.

[Kevin]

Except yeah.

[Mark]

And also he sings Sweet Baby James and my, my boy is named James. And so in our household that's like the national anthem. All right, quick word from a couple sponsors and then we'll go right to your right to your guest host today and they're going to explain it all starting with, starting with that Texas special. Right now you get 20% off everything on the site takelean.com using the promo code 2 WMM. Forget the fad diets, forget the cabbage soup, forget the juice cleanses, forget those injectables. Try an oral supplement that was created by doctors. Lean can help you lose weight, maintain healthy blood sugar, control appetite and cravings, and burn fat by converting it to energy. All possible. Try it now. Go to takelean.com get 20% off. Use the promo code 2 WMM. Start the year off right. Not weight cycling, gaining and losing weight, up and down. Lose it consistently and safely. Lean is an oral supplement. As I said. Give it a try again. Take lean.com promo code to wmmtakelean.com I'm James Patterson.

[James Patterson]

I write way too many books. Welcome to Hungry Dogs. The title comes from my maternal grandmother, Isabel Zelvis Morris. Nan used to always say, hungry dogs run faster, James. And I've been running fast ever since. Here's what will be coming your way soon. And this is a really terrific list. I think you'll hear from some Incredible people like Stacey Abrams. Yay. BJ Novak.

[Kevin]

Yay.

[James Patterson]

Kathy Bates, Dolly Parton, Josh Gad, and Pope Leo. Okay, maybe not Pope Leo, but who knows? Maybe he'll show up. Hungry Dogs run faster. Thank you, grandma, for turning me into a hopeless, obsessive compulsive. Listen to Hungry Dogs with James Patterson. That'd be me on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcast. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

[Mark]

Thank you for your attention to that matter and to this one as well. Ladies and gentlemen, the folks at our friends Cozy Earth would like you to take advantage of the opportunity to buy not one, but two pairs of their famous pajama set for the same price. Buy one, get one free. This is a rare opportunity to try one of their most popular items and get a second set. Show an extra little love for Valentine's Day by buying someone, you know a pair of PJs. Pode the pajama set is available now. They say they won't have this deal the rest of the year. I take them at their word. This one opportunity this year. To buy the Cozy Earth favorite, go to cozyearth.com and use the promo code 2WMM. Bogota 2WMM. Buy one, get one for a free bamboo pajama set. While you're on there, buy yourself a bubble cuddle, blanket, sheets, towels, blanket shirts, and of course, the famous pants that you've heard so much about here. Go to cozyearth.com use the promo code 2WMM. Thank you for attention to this matter. House special election Oftentimes special elections, the losers say our candidate was bad. There was infighting, there was a debutante ball, and all our supporters are debutantes. In this case, everybody acknowledges in the Republican Party that I know, with one prominent exception, that this was a big problem. For instance, Ron DeSantis says that losing this House race was a big deal. Here's what he put on social media. The, the, the. What's it called? Twitter x Ron DeSantis, where's that? Do we have that? Maybe we don't have that. Maybe I didn't ask for that. Maybe we don't. No, I don't think we have that.

[Kevin]

Anyway, he said, a swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed.

[Mark]

That's right. And I heard from a lot of Republican consultants this weekend who said this is bad news, folks. This shows decline with Hispanics, with young people, with women. This was a huge. Trump won it by 17. The Democrat won easily. Republicans and the lieutenant governor put in a lot of effort. There's one prominent Republican who on social media did three posts saying vote for the Republican. That was Donald John Trump last week. Three posts on true social. Another guy, same name, Donald Jen Trump. Here's what he said when asked over the weekend about the big loss in Texas.

[Kevin]

Texas Democrat won your special election in.

[Jackie]

An area that you had won by second 13 points. What is your reaction?

[Kevin]

I don't know.

[Mark]

I didn't hear about it. Somebody ran where in Texas?

[Jackie]

A special election for legislators, the ninth state senate.

[Mark]

I'm not involved in that. That's a local Texas race. You mean I won by 17 and this person lost? Things like that happen.

[Kevin]

Does it worry you about.

[Mark]

Well, you don't know whether or not it's transferable.

[Kevin]

You know, I'm not on the balance. So you don't know whether or not it's transferable?

[Mark]

No, I don't know anything about it. I didn't know. I mean, I know there's a race going there and it's too bad. What can I say? I have nothing to do with it. Nothing to do with the three posts. Hogan, does the president really not know and how would you say the president's political team are reacting to the loss in Texas?

[Hogan]

Well, I don't know whether he knows or not. I mean, look, his team kind of coalesces around him and tells him these are the races we need to watch out for. Here's an endorsement. I mean, that. That's how it works. I mean, they're not paying attention to these type of local races. However, local races, as you well know, allow you to effectuate the most change. Mike Huckabee once told me that the more local the race, the easier it is for you to effectuate change in any given topic or subject matter. This matters in large part because Donald Trump did win the district or did win the area by such a big margin. And then all of a sudden, the flip happened. Governor DeSantis is absolutely right. The question I always ask in these races is not just who lost and and why or who won and why they won. Excuse me, who won, it's the why that matters. What led them to this mindset that they thought they'd be better off with a Democrat in office. And if it's indicative of a broader mindset of many voters out there, then you have to figure out how to stop that, change it, and then look in opposite directions to try and right the wrongs. But to this point, it's pretty obvious that the numbers are really close around this country. Things are changing rapidly from, from the numbers of representation in these states to some little oddities out there. But I've long said this, that Donald Trump is the biggest natural turnout machine I have ever seen on Republican ballot. And if the rnc, the nrcc, the NRC don't know how to bottle that in some way, at least make the bottle like half full, it's going to be very difficult because he really does turn people out.

[Mark]

All right, well, Hogan, as you look at this for yourself, if zero is no problem at all, it's all just a bunch of local hoo ha, doesn't have any meaning for the midterms. And 10 is, we're doomed. It's going to be a massive blue wave. Where are you in the wake of that result?

[Hogan]

7.2.

[Mark]

Okay, that's pretty high.

[Hogan]

Okay, Kevin, you're also on the side of the other.

[Mark]

Yeah. Candidate. Kevin, your candidate is a machinist. He's about to be on Morning Joe. So we're looking, maybe we'll, we'll dip into that. Democrats are super excited about this. What are the lessons here for the Democrats? Run machinists or everything's the, I mean, if they can win this district in a, in a, in a expensive race, does this mean Democrats can win 40 House seats?

[Kevin]

I mean, I think so. You know, to your point, you know, this is a 31 point swing. I think, you know, the real lesson learned is candidate quality matters. Right. Running the right folks that match the district. This guy that works for Lockheed, which is like, you know, I saw someone say earlier, it's like working for GM in Detroit. Right. This lines up perfectly with this district. He was massively outspent. And I think obviously you can pull some factors out of this in the, in the notion that this looks like a really suburban district in a lot of other places. And there's probably some serious concerns and head scratchings on the Republican side based on some of the demographic switches. And to Hogan's point, the lower turnout in terms of Republican enthusiasm without President Trump on the ballot, that is going to be a huge factor for Team Red heading into the midterms.

[Hogan]

But I would say, too, it always fascinates me because Donald Trump also turns out Democrats in numbers I don't think we've ever seen.

[Kevin]

Very true.

[Hogan]

But he turns to turn out, he tends to turn out Democrats when he's not on the ballot. He doesn't turn out Republicans when he's not on the ballot, which I find fascinating.

[Mark]

You know, the other issue that people are talking about is the redistricting in Texas. And this was predicted by some before this result. It could backfire. They, they tried to create more Republican districts by spreading the Republican voters around. But the federal House races in Texas, now, Republicans who thought they'd pick up five, they may not. Because if they can't do better than they did in that district with Hispanic votes, they will not.

[Kevin]

All right, especially that point, Mark, especially that point on Hispanic voters. Right. Record high support for the president this last go around and that's going to be a huge factor.

[Mark]

It's cratered in almost every poll. Okay, exit question on this. Although then we're going to a related topic. Kevin, what is the ceiling? The ceiling of how many House seats Democrats could win in the midterms right.

[Kevin]

Now, ceiling is 40, I think what you just laid out.

[Mark]

Right.

[Kevin]

You know, if we, if we look at a D 6, 8 environment, I think that's what we're looking at.

[Mark]

Hogan, over under 40, is it more than 40 or fewer than 40?

[Hogan]

I think it's fewer.

[Mark]

Yeah, it's 40. The ceiling's 40.

[Hogan]

Even though there's a six point, as you just said, Kevin, that's still usually much higher for Democrats. I think it's really, really close.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Kevin]

A bunch of new, again, there's just, there's not that many competitive districts.

[Mark]

You know, frankly, bunch of new polling that shows again, just president's in horrible shape. Democratic Party's not in great shape either. But if they're going to be in a throw, if the voters are going to be in a throw the bums out mood. Here's the Pew Poll 107. Just, just horrible for the president. Half of Americans say Trump's actions have been worse than they expected. Trump administration's actions since taking office last year, worse. I mean, just people think it's horrible compared to what they expect. I saw one poll over the weekend that said by, by basically a tie, but a narrow margin, people think the Biden presidency was better for them economically than Trump. That's got to kill the president. Here's the new Fox News polls written up by the New York Post. 108 Democrats crush Republicans in race for Congress. They have the generic ballot as lopsided six points as they've ever had it. Although six is not, you know, massive. And then let's talk about the markets. Okay. I still have people in my life saying that the markets do not like Kevin Warsh, although I continue to be impressed by how many friends this guy has. I just, people in my life are like, oh, yeah, I've Known Kevin Wash for 25 years. Known him for 30 years. A great guy. I mean, he's a very popular guy with a certain category of people. Now Those people have iPhone 17s just, just to give you some idea demographically, but, but Some people with iPhone 17s do not like him. And although his, his supporters say the roughness in the markets, including especially gold and silver since he was named, has nothing to do with Kevin Warsh, here's, here's how Bloomberg Curtain raised today's market activity. This is 110, please. All right.

[Hogan]

An object lesson in volatility. That's what our live strategist Van Rahm is calling the last few days, particularly in silver, down 40% in three days. Many traders out there, he says, have never seen the likes of it. That is definitely causing some contagion. But we've also had two days of a market sell off.

[Richard]

Right.

[Hogan]

The NASDAQ 100 was down almost one and a half percent on Friday. Looks like we're setting up for a negative day once again today.

[Mark]

Okay, so Hogan there, we had thought there was going to be an event on Friday, but the President announced war. She was in Washington, but they didn't, they just did the President's statement on truth social and then a press release. Are, are the markets loving or not loving war? Hogan?

[Hogan]

I don't know that it's, it's, it's fair to take that snapshot in a day or two, I think over long term matters for, for most investors, however, I would imagine, as you know, markets like stability and someone like that and his kind of open opinions being out there for years and years and years through various writings and comments on television, that he will be someone that I think the markets end up liking because he is someone who's focused on pro growth and he is someone who's focused on kind of getting the gun small.

[Mark]

Sorry to interrupt. Here's the guy who just won this House state legislative seat in Texas. Let's listen.

[Kevin]

I think we have this. That was our focus. Working people, you know, the folks that work every single day in the Senate district, they're looking for something different.

[Mark]

Ooh, this guy's good. I can already tell he's good.

[Wickham]

I've grown up, Senator. In red states cross across the deep South. And I will tell you, my friends that I grew up with in the Baptist church, my friends that I'm around now and deep red America, they're disgusted by a lot of things they're seeing on television. But at the same time, the Democratic brand is so toxic that they're like, ok, well, I'm sorry, but I can never vote for a Democrat. I want to ask you, how did you break through? How did you. How did you get past the bad national Democratic brand and a place like Fort Worth, Texas, when you knocked on.

[Mark]

Doors, had people that had voted Republican their whole life decide to vote for you?

[Kevin]

To me, it was simple. We had to focus on solutions, not partisan politics. Bringing communities together, that's what it's all about in Texas. We look out for our neighbors, and that's exactly what we did to this campaign.

[Mark]

Kevin, this guy's awesome, right? What were some of those.

[Kevin]

He's going the distance that you offered.

[Mark]

Well, and I'm curious, he'll probably lose in November.

[Kevin]

Affordability.

[Wickham]

How concerned were people?

[Mark]

I mean, the crazy thing about this whole thing is groceries.

[Wickham]

The price.

[Mark]

He's. He's not. They're not even in session until after every.

[Kevin]

Every two years. He's not going to see.

[Mark]

He may never any action. One of the cornerstones run for the.

[Kevin]

U.S. top issue is lowering costs. People are very concerned. They're struggling out here, you know, choosing between rent and medicine. That shouldn't happen in such a great economy like we have.

[Wickham]

Now. Can I ask you.

[Mark]

Okay.

[Kevin]

About monitor.

[Mark]

Kevin. Kevin, what lessons. If you were teaching a class for. For candidates on the ballot in red districts in 2026, what would you say about that? What lessons they could learn from that guy?

[Kevin]

Well, certainly a lesson in running in Texas is to have a cactus prominently displayed right behind you, the Texas flag in terms of your setup. But again, not. And he didn't take the bait. Right. You know, as you just said, Mark, earlier, you know, the president's standing is not in good shape, but the Democratic standing is in worse shape nationwide. So. Right. Localizing the race and focusing on affordability, just like we want in Virginia, New Jersey is the way forward. Not trying to build the Democratic brand, but running your race to the local issues is the way to do it.

[Mark]

Hogan, do you think that guy was good as I did or.

[Hogan]

It was horrible. He was horrible. Okay.

[Mark]

Horrible. First of all.

[Hogan]

Yeah, he won.

[Mark]

Dude. Dude, he just won.

[Hogan]

Okay, great. Yeah, that means that. Horrible. Also, if I were teaching a class, which I have before, I would put that video up and go, don't do this right here. This is an example.

[Mark]

What do you do? What do you do wrong?

[Hogan]

Well, first of all, you're talking about bringing the party, the country together, and you're on Morning Joe. Big mistake. Number one, they don't do that. Number Two, when asked about how you won, we focused on solutions. Okay, can I have a little more about what you told the voters? And I think in that particular clip what you saw was that's all he told the voters. He didn't tell them how he was going to get these things accomplished.

[Kevin]

And as you know, nobody does Hogan though. Nobody.

[Mark]

Presidential candidates don't. Presidential candidates don't tell them, yes, they're gonna do.

[Kevin]

He can't solve the affordability crisis and.

[Hogan]

He still can't tell me how he got, how he's gonna do a solution.

[Mark]

I think it's gonna be, oh my, bars too high. Bars too high. Bars too. Abortion bars too high. All right, Kevin, just tell me about your fellow. Kevin, is, is, are the markets not liking war or. It's got nothing to do with.

[Kevin]

Kevin, it's got nothing to do with war. I think to Hogan's point, it's a longer term play. Again, they like stability to Hogan's point again. And you got a lot of stuff happening in the Middle East. Maybe we'll, we'll talk about it in a little bit. And I think that has a bigger effect on the Dow right now.

[Mark]

Yeah. All right, let's speed through some stuff. Ice Homan was, was played by Pete Davidson on Saturday Night Live. Five year old Liam was released with his dad back to Minnesota and put set free. A federal judge ruled that Minnesota can't stop the. Stop the Ice operation. Currently a lady. I don't know if you guys saw this video. A lady was driving down the road in Minnesota, American citizen. And ICE pulled her over and came out with her guns blazing and she called 911 and the sheriff came and drove her home. So it's horrible video and at the same time it's. And there were a lot of protests in Minnesota and around the country and last night at the Grammys there were a ton of protests. And yet at the same time the story is not dominating right now. And I'm wondering, Kevin, is that because Homan has kind of calmed everybody down? Like why is the temperature level gone down seemingly over the weekend?

[Kevin]

Yeah, I mean we react to optics. Right. The horrifying videos that we've seen is what motivates people. And there's been some relative calm on the ground. I think that's what breaks through in the national psyche. And I hope, you know, not speaking just as a Democrat, but as American that that calmer heads will prevail and that Homan will get a handle on the situation. I've got a lot of faith in the guy and, and the situation will and again, you also have Bavino out of the picture which you know, he loved the spotlight, which was problematic in terms of those visuals. So again, hopefully cooler heads will prevail and stuff won't break through because stuff isn't necessarily happening on the ground.

[Mark]

Hogan New York Post said that Secretary Noem and Stephen Miller showed up at one of the Trump related weddings this weekend together. They had a photo of them like walking in together. Is that all patched up? Your friend Stephen Miller and your friend Christy?

[Hogan]

No, I don't know that it was ever too far afraid. They seem to be on good terms and that's good. Anytime you have administration where there's a lot of infighting, as I experienced a lot in the first admin, still able to accomplish stuff but makes it more a whole lot. Makes it more a whole lot. Makes it a whole lot more difficult rather, is what I was trying to say. And so it seems like they're trying to, you know, row in the same direction now into Kevin's point. You know, for them it's not necessarily about the feelings where the left will jump on those feelings and how it looks and the optics. We're trying to get policies that make people's lives safer. And I think at the end of the day, if they can calm the tensions and get something done, maybe they can win that PR battle. I will say though, I've been very disappointed at both Walls and Mayor Fry coming out and basically saying no, we're not going to do any of this and still ratcheting up the rhetoric. As Gavin Newsom that to me is really problematic as well.

[Mark]

So the House has to get through somehow today and tomorrow. Hogan's friend, the speaker has to get through a two week CR so they can have two weeks to negotiate over new limits on ice's conduct. Passing the CR is not going to be easy. But presumably you guys agree they'll find some way to do that, right?

[Kevin]

Sure, yeah. We've said this before. I don't doubt Mike Johnson's abilities to actually corral folks in the end.

[Mark]

So these negotiations people are already talking about, there's going to need to be additional crs. And again, the minute you tell Congress you've got more time, they always take it. But who's going to negotiate this? Because right now there are huge gaps. There are Democrats saying you got to get rid of the mask, you got to get rid of the, you got to change the warrants to judicial warrants. And that's a non starter for many prominent Republicans. So who's at the table while they try to put a package together and pass the House and Senate? Is it the four congressional leaders and the president? Is it the president and Schumer again, who's going to negotiate what provisions, restraining ISIS conduct and border patrol conduct? You guys have any sense of that?

[Kevin]

I mean, my opinion is it's going to be Schumer and the President again. It's amazing to me to see Leader Jeffries, Hakeem Jeffries, not really playing ball on any of this element, especially in this vote, you know, where now it's going to have to go through the Rules committee starting at 4 o' clock today. The fact that he's not playing ball at all at the table, don't also doubt that the hatred between, you know, we've got interparty problems and problems, Democrats and Republicans, the hatred between the House and the Senate. And when one body feels like they're being subjected to the other body, I think that's even more of a motivating factor than partisan lines.

[Mark]

Hogan has. Is this, Is this gonna. Who's gonna negotiate the. The ICE deal?

[Hogan]

Well, again, how we get here, how we got here, rather, getting these five bills through. They've already voted for them. They'll probably get through. Then we'll focus on the CR for dhs. Listen, I think this is going to be an epic battle royale. And I'm for one, can't wait for the messaging around this.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Hogan]

Now, I will say you just said something that's very important. Folks out there understand when you open the process back up, a lot of members will say, now wait a minute. You're giving X group inside our caucus this provision. Well, I want mine, too.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Hogan]

Someone else says, wait a minute now, I want mine back in, too. Instead of focusing on the actual issue, they start adding all this stuff that has nothing to do with dhs. That could be problematic because as you mentioned, that vote margin is so slim right now. It's one, two. Yeah, you don't count Massey because he never votes as a Republican. He never votes at all for our side. But still, that's going to matter moving forward. And I think some of the issues you just point out with judicial warrants of the complete nonstarters and complete foolishness. And I cannot wait to have that debate.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Kevin]

And the new deadline, the new deadline is February 13th. That is an incredibly short amount of time.

[Mark]

Yes. Given that's why people are saying they're going to have to extend it. Raise your hand if you want in on the conversation. All right, let's do some stuff quick here. Epstein, huge disclosure, lots of embarrassment to people that have nothing to do with Epstein in some cases, and some people facing repercussions and some not. Howard Lutnick. I'm just using him as one example, but I could use others. Howard Lutnick had previously said in a podcast that he cut off contact with Epstein. I forget the years. But then it turned out many years later, he had contact with Epstein. Okay. And there's other things like that in these files. There's complaints that there's too much redacted and not enough redacted. Hogan, what did the release of the Epstein files accomplish?

[Hogan]

I'm one of those folks now at this point. I'm really kind of anxious to see Bongino now, having been in the government and trying to do some of this stuff and get it out there, having the freedom to talk about it now from his. From the perch of his podcast. I don't know. I think in large part the congressional actions and stuff done by James Comer and his committee, allowing the release of a lot of this stuff, but also protecting victims is important, and we wouldn't be talking about this, but did it accomplish something? This administration, did it accomplish something? I don't know that it accomplishes anything at this point.

[Mark]

Kevin, did it accomplish anything?

[Kevin]

Not much of anything. Again, I think people are still sifting through the 3.5 million documents. New polling out this morning. Those 67% think the government is intentionally holding something back, according to Pew, including 42% of Republicans. So that's still red. That's a flashing red light for Republicans and Democrats, too.

[Mark]

So if what they wanted to accomplish was full disclosure and a confidence of the government that everything is out, they failed.

[Hogan]

Real quick to summarize, the damnable part of this is Democrats had all these documents four years and did nothing. Republicans are the ones releasing them, and somehow Republicans are the ones trying to keep it secret. It makes no sense whatsoever. Infuriated.

[Mark]

All right, we got a wrap around this, folks. Here we go. Okay, Iran talks are going on. The president confirmed. At the same time the military buildup is confirmed and both sides are talking bela cost language. Kevin, are we headed more towards a deal or on a US Strike at this point?

[Kevin]

Point, I think a strike, no deal, again, by the president is buying time. This is what we saw before the Maduro situation.

[Mark]

I was on strike before, but I'm flipped. I'm now on deal. Ukraine, Russia, are we headed more towards deal or no deal? Kevin, no deal. Hogan.

[Hogan]

I'm moving. Deal on this one.

[Mark]

Okay, I'm moving. No deal. All right, last two more and then we'll get to you. All right, Kennedy Center, Trump Kennedy Center. I call it the center formerly known as Kennedy that avoids having to take sides. The President announced yesterday, starting in July, the Kennedy center will be closed for two years while there's a total remake. Now again, it's a fabled building. I was there recently. It's. It could use a Renault, I have to say. There's a new, there's a new portion of it that's quite nice and quite new, but the old part could use a Renault. I don't know though. You need to shut it down for two years now. The President's pretty wily about over underperform and over over deliver. And I bet they finished that. And he says, oh, we said two years but we did it. Whatever. But they're not explicitly linking this to all the talent, saying they won't do things there. Hogan, why is this, what's going to happen here? Well, will he really close the Kennedy center for two years starting in July?

[Hogan]

I don't know. He's going to close all of it. We'll see. I've been there many times. I think it's a great historic building. But you're right, it needs some freshening up, to say the least. I will point out though that what he wants to do, I would imagine is finish it before his term so he can go have like a trial of opening.

[Mark]

Of course he does deal for him or she does there.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Mark]

Kevin Wong, will this actually happen or will the court stop it or what?

[Kevin]

Yeah, I mean Congress has a role in this, right? This isn't like the, they're supposed to East Wing and stuff like that with the ballroom. I think to Hogan's point, he does want to do this by the end of the. Again, the President is, is interested in long term memorials to himself and, and putting his face and change on the city of Washington. And again, we'll see if there's any kind of oversight with this. Obviously the board is under his control, but I am surprised that he. It would physically shut down completely and not just, you know, Opera house by concert hall, but you know, the way that it's done in the past.

[Mark]

All right, last topic and then to your questions, please raise your hand if you want in on the conversation on these topics or anything else. I was a critic and remain so of Shapiro's book rollout. I thought it was kind of low wattage he got some good television bookings.

[Jackie]

And.

[Mark]

But the. But the print articles were not too favorable, and the messaging was kind of muddled. Well, the early indications are that Gavin Newsom's book rollout will be a lot better. Articles in the New York Times, the New Yorker, and Vanity Fair. Oh, my goodness. Over the top. The lead of the Vanity Fair story was about how handsome Gavin Newsom looks, and he and his family sat for the great Annie Lebowitz. Here's one of the many Annie Leibowitz photos that accompanies the Vanity Fair piece. Look at that, ladies and gentlemen. I mean, those of you. Those of you listening on the podcast, I feel sorry for you. You are missing out on Democratic eye candy. Two dogs, four kids, his wife, who was on Morning Joe this morning in colloquy with M. And again, turtle on a fence post, folks. He's not getting this Vanity Fair spread and a New Yorker piece. Very hard to get both. Normally, if you're trying to negotiate with magazine editors, you say, well, it's either or. It can't be both. New Yorker and Vanity Fair. They're owned by the same person, right? They're both owned by Conde Nast.

[Kevin]

Yep.

[Mark]

Yeah. So Conde Nast gives Gavin Newsom two giant stories with beautiful art and very favorable pieces. Hogan, Donald Trump's never received such treatment. Melania Trump's never received such treatment. What's going on here with Gavin Newsom's ability to micromanage the liberal media?

[Hogan]

Well, he's a liberal. They protect their own, they promote their own. That's pretty obvious. It's no more obvious than this. And when you think of someone like the first lady, Melania Trump, who has a movie out now, famously a supermodel, and not having a cover of any.

[Mark]

Of these magazines, it's crazy.

[Hogan]

It's shocking to say the least. I don't know how much this kind of stuff matters. Although I will say he is the darling of the left right now. You know. You know when Bush would talk and everyone just hated the way that guy talked. And from the left, anyway. Republicans hated Clinton, hated Obama. Democrats hate Trump. That's just the way it works.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Hogan]

Gavin Newsom is so, so bad. But maybe their guy.

[Mark]

Kevin, just a. Just a judgment question. If you want to run for president and you're thinking, I want to win the nomination in the general election, would you let Annie Leibowitz take your candidate's photo?

[Hogan]

I mean, of course.

[Kevin]

I mean, she's iconic.

[Hogan]

I mean.

[Kevin]

Yeah. To Phillips point, though, in the chat, and I was just going to make this point, we all remember Beto o', Rourke, Born to Run on the COVID and how well that went. I will also say, if you want two minutes of the best video ever, go watch Annie Leibowitz instructing the Queen. Her Majesty, the late Queen, to take her crown off for the photo because it was too over the top. And you should see the Queen's response.

[Mark]

Okay, I. Yes, I just.

[Kevin]

A great video clip.

[Mark]

It is. It is a great video clip. I just think that if you want to run as a populist, sitting for Annie Leibowitz is just.

[Hogan]

Yeah. Where was that? On the veranda of the French.

[Mark]

I don't know. I've got two personal stories about interacting with Andy Leibowitz that I will not tell today. Please read my memoir. They're good stories. She's a piece of work, that Andy Lieboss.

[Kevin]

Yes, she is. I mean, telling the Queen to take the crown off.

[Mark]

Yeah. All right, let's go to your questions and comments. Come on in, Jackie. Tell folks who don't know where you are what's on your mind for Kevin and for Hogan.

[Jackie]

Good morning, everybody. Yeah, I actually have. First of all, I'm from Pittsburgh, right outside of Punxsutawney. Stop dishing on our groundhog.

[Kevin]

I'm very sorry, Jackie. I'm very sorry for that.

[Jackie]

We have been in sub zero temperature for weeks. We need something to have fun with. But other than that, I do have a. I have a couple questions maybe you should do. I'd love for you to do a show dedicated to this mark about. Are sanctuary cities actually legal? I mean, there is that pesky Supremacy clause thing.

[Mark]

Yeah. There's debate about it. You find a legal expert to tell you both things. But somebody's gonna. It'd be interesting to see if Congress tests it. I wonder if there were a vote in Congress, how were a Democrat.

[Kevin]

It's a good question, Jackie, for sure.

[Jackie]

But why does it even have to go to Congress? I mean, there's a Supremacy clause. It's federal law. They are thwarting federal law.

[Mark]

Yeah, I've heard. I've heard legal people on both sides make the case, but you're certainly right that it's something questionable. And I've been amazed to find that, as best I can tell, no one's ever challenged it. I'm surprised some citizen didn't.

[Jackie]

He challenged it from when he tries to block funding.

[Mark]

Yeah, but not. But not just the concept.

[Jackie]

Correct. I can't find any litigation on that.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Hogan]

Two things, Jackie. One is it's going to be challenged in Congress because one of the things that, if you want to have a debate over dhs, Republicans are saying, fine, we'll have that debate. Why don't we just strip the funding from sanctuary cities? If you want to package funding DHS your way, it's going to be nasty.

[Jackie]

Congress does not. I'm not relying on them.

[Hogan]

They did challenge it in another way. And you'll recall when Republican governors rounded up illegal aliens and said, you want them sanctuary cities? You got them. That lasted about 24 hours before the citizens of those blue states and sanctuary cities said, oh, no, no, no, we don't want them, really. So it's all a virtue signaling all of.

[Mark]

Kevin, Kevin.

[Hogan]

What?

[Kevin]

It is, Jackie, It's a good question. Obviously, you bring up the supremacy clause, the 10th amendment. It is a question as to how much the federal government can compel, you know, state and local governments when it comes to their policing resources and things like that. I think that is the issue at play more so than. And the president and the Supreme Court has said, the president, and obviously on the federal level has the unique and overwhelming purview when it comes to immigration laws and the power to enforce that. But I think it then becomes a question of can you compel state resources and local resources when it comes to, you know, policing priorities, for example?

[Jackie]

And I, I agree they can't compel them. I mean, I. I can see where there's a case for that, but they're actively obstructing. They're not, not compelling.

[Mark]

They're actively, actively obstructing. I agree. I'm amazed. I've been tested. Jack, if you want to do another topic, do it quick, please.

[Jackie]

Kind of the same topic is, I thought it was illegal to intimidate federal employees or federal agents to intimidate them. I mean, is that a thing? That's a thing. Right. And I would say that the way they're treating ICE officials. And, you know, I'm very. And you know why? I'm very pro law enforcement. They're all intimidation factors, blowing those whistles, getting in your face. That's all trying to intimidate them not to do their job. I also thought that was against the law, but am I wrong about that? If I were. And by the way, I used to go to Minneapolis all the time because I. I had clients up there. If I had been sitting in that hotel or trying to shop in that Target and was obstructed, their right to protest is now stepping over my rights.

[Mark]

My rights.

[Jackie]

Right.

[Wickham]

Yeah, yeah.

[Mark]

These Are these are complicated issues involving First Amendment rights and as you said, law enforcement operations. Kevin, thoughts on that?

[Kevin]

Yeah, no, I agree. It's complicated. You know, I have said from the get go, do not, you know, do you. Don't get in the faces of these folks. Don't obviously touch them or assault them. Certainly. And there should be ramifications for the, for that. I get annoyed, Jackie, just as you do when, you know, you've got environmentalists that shut down roads and things like that. That's obstructing the free flow of commerce. So certainly there should be consequences for that. But again, all about peaceful protest, permanent protest. There's a time and a place, but certainly don't touch anyone, you know, that's carrying out walking traffic.

[Mark]

Yep. Hogan, thoughts on that?

[Jackie]

People in that hotel trying to sleep in those hotels that were.

[Hogan]

Yeah, Jackie, it, it's dumb. Yes, it's illegal. But you can protest how, you know, peacefully, however you want to. But the idiocy of it is, I think what you got to in the first part of your question, which is it's federal law. If you want to change the law, protest your congressman. Do not protest those who are enforcing the laws that the congress people passed. It's insane.

[Kevin]

Channel that energy in that direction. Absolutely.

[Mark]

Yeah. Jackie, thank you. Grateful to you. All right, a quick word from sponsor and then back to your questions. Please raise your hand if you want in on the conversation right now. Get some free money. Yes, we're giving away free money. Not us, but our sponsors. Upside. Go to Upside on your phone, download the Upside app. You can make all the financial resolutions you want about saving, but here's a chance to just get some free money. It connects users with personalized cash back offers at gas stations, grocery stores and restaurants, letting you earn real money every day. Again, folks, this isn't a joke. I was a little skeptical when I first heard of it. Download the app right now, you get cash back again. Gas, groceries and restaurants. Something Everybody does. Over 100,000 participating merchants around the country. It shows you, right on the app, which ones are in your neighborhood. There's a ton in my neighborhood. I bet you are there a ton in yours as well. You don't get points. You don't never use. You don't get credits or anything. You get cash back directly to your bank account. You open the app, claim an offer, pay with your credit card like normal, and then you get additional cash back. That's it. It's simple to use and you just get extra money. Over a hundred, over a Million dollars in cash back every week. They've given back a billion dollars, I believe. Right? A billion dollars. Anyway, they give back a lot of money. Go to your phone right now, download the Upside app and you'll see it's very easy to use and get free money. One more sponsor and then back to your questions. This is something great, too. Healthy food. Our sponsor factor will give you 50% off your first factor box, plus free breakfast for a year. You go on the app, you shoot or the website. You choose what kind of meals you want. They show up at your house, they take about two minutes to prepare, easy to clean up. It's a subscription service. Fully cooked meals come to your home. They're, they're designed by dietitians. You can see they're very healthy options on there. On most days when you don't have time to cook and you want something healthy Factor is the solution for you right now. You do the subscription service, very easy to use and you'll get 50% off your first box and free breakfast for the entire year. Use the code two way 50 off the number 50 two way number 50 off to get 50% off your first factor box plus free breakfast for one year. And if you're looking for a way to eat healthier and eat easier so you're not scrambling around trying to make a healthy meal for yourself, give this a try. Go to factor meals.com two way off and use the code two way 50 off for 50% off your first box. Thank you for your attention to that matter. Here we go. Wickham, welcome in. Tell folks who don't know where you are what's on your mind for Hogan and for Kevin.

[Wickham]

Did I unmute?

[Mark]

Yes, sir.

[Hogan]

Okay.

[Wickham]

Very good. Yeah. Wickham from Michigan, a little south of Ann Arbor, a little north of Saline. A while ago I was on and talked about how huge imports were swamping exports, creating large trade deficits. And of course, a lot of those come from low wage countries. And during the course of that conversation, Mark, you talked about China, as did Heima. So that's. And Republicans are trying to use tariffs to offset that. It doesn't look like it's working all that well, but they're trying. I'm now thinking about deportations, which look to me like another way to correct the importation of something else, which in this case is people, lots of them, who for some reason, because of their status in this country don't have to be paid US wages and are flooding into the, to the agricultural and the hospitality sectors. So I'm wondering if you put those two together, it doesn't almost look like an attempt to preserve a high or a higher wage US Economy, Almost a comprehensive structure along the lines of Henry Ford years ago, who did the outrageous thing of paying workers $5 a day to make automobiles on the theory that the people who make the product maybe ought to be able to buy them as well. And so I'm wondering why the Democrats who legitimize collective bargaining and who pass minimum wage laws all the time would fight two policies that look to me like they work together to preserve higher wages and a higher wage economy.

[Mark]

Yeah, Wickham, that's a super, super complicated but very elegant question. Hogan.

[Hogan]

Wait a minute. You're saying they're working together to keep the price. Explain that one more time, Wick. I'm sorry.

[Wickham]

Not prices high, to keep wages high, to preserve a high wage economy.

[Mark]

Yeah.

[Wickham]

In other words, you. You use tariffs, so you bring manufacturing jobs with high wages back. You deport the people who are competing for the other kinds of jobs in agricultural. And.

[Mark]

Why would. I guess. Can you tell me if this is wrong? I think I understand it, but let me try to do this for Hogan and then for Kevin. That Democrats seem to oppose two Trump policies that would appear to. To be designed to help workers by raising wages for American workers.

[Wickham]

Precisely. Right. Yes. So you said it better than I did.

[Mark]

Yeah. So why would. Why? Why? I mean, Kevin may be better able to explain it, but for his party's point of view. But Kogan, what. What is. What is Wickham? What are Wickham and I missing?

[Hogan]

I would argue two. Two things. One is when you go to the doctor, Wickham, and they do that little rubber mallet for your knee and they hit it and your knee just goes like that. Anything Trump, it's reflective. They just hate it. And they get there against Trump.

[Mark]

They.

[Hogan]

Second of all, also, this is always both sides about political power. They don't care how they get it. They want to gain it. They want to maintain it at all costs. And if that means being antithetical to their own thought process, it's kind of like, you know, gays for Hamas, for heaven's sakes. It makes no sense whatsoever. They're just coalescing around, you know, some type of perceived grievance. This is similar. They just want the power. So if they can just get more people here and make them legal, they'll sort it out later. It doesn't really matter that it's counterintuitive to their thought process. In the past. Now they just want the people here so they can have the votes and they'll push and pull those blocks of voters as they need. I would argue. Kevin, tell me where I'm.

[Mark]

Kevin, is this, is this Trump derangement syndrome or do Democrats have a different economic theory?

[Kevin]

I mean, a lot of it is, you know, in terms of this, just this snapshot response to anything the President does. Wickham, this is a larger, you know, we could have a whole two way conversation about this in terms of, of demographics. You know, new reports we've shown, we've seen the, the lowest population growth in this country in a generation just in the last couple of days. That's a huge problem. Part of the, what you, you, you zero in on is the agriculture hospitality sector. And it is that double edged sword. We want the highest wages possible. But you have a lot of corporate folks, especially in the agriculture space that know they're hiring undocumented folks and can pay them a lot less because of that factor, to say nothing of, you know, giving them quality health care and things like that. But if we do remove all those folks, you know, and Democrats have long made this argument, who will be out there in the fields doing this work? Because there's a lot of native born Americans or, or legal immigrants that don't want to do that work seemingly. But there is, you know, it's a worthy conversation to have in terms of the right level of legal immigration, especially for those sectors that are desperate for, you know, food security, to say nothing, you know, of other sectors of this economy.

[Mark]

Wickham, I'm not wearing my fairway and green today because I've got a job interview. So I'm all dressed up. No, I don't have a job interview, but I've got an event. But I see you're wearing your quarter zip just to remind folks how comfortable those fairway and green quarter zips are.

[Wickham]

Well, not only are they comfortable, Mark, but as I said last time, Holly likes the way they look on me because they fit a little better.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Wickham]

And especially since you're only seeing from here up. Yeah. You don't notice the, the spare tire that I've acquired over the years.

[Mark]

I hear, well, it looks great.

[Wickham]

It's very comfortable thing to wear.

[Mark]

It looks great.

[Kevin]

We gotta film this for an endorsement video to play.

[Mark]

I like, I like that you got the, the morning meeting logo on there. Wickham, thank you for being part of Two Way. Thank you.

[Wickham]

Like no other.

[Mark]

Like no other. Right on the sleeve. Thank you, sir. Appreciate It. All right, here we go. Carlton, welcome in. Oops, hit the wrong button. Carlton, welcome in. Tell folks who don't know where you are what's on your mind for Hogan and for Kevin.

[Carlton]

Okay, I think I've unmuted.

[Mark]

Yes, sir, you have. We hear you.

[Carlton]

Great, great. Thank you very much, Kevin. Hogan, I really, really enjoy your, your discussion. Kevin, I like your common sense, sensible approach on a number of issues. Appreciate that from both of you. My question is to be as succinct as possible. I have just been terribly dismayed by what I perceive as a lack of practicality and common sense both on the right and the left by our so called leaders, Donald Trump. I just get so frustrated and angry with his method. I do enjoy, do appreciate many of the things that he is doing and has talked about doing, but I'm just so turned off by his approach to doing those things. Similarly, on the left, I truly believe that the Democrat Party put Donald Trump in office in, in 2021 because they were just arrogant in their approach and they wouldn't, they wouldn't listen to reason and could not see reason. So my question is this for both Hogan and Kevin Hogan within the, within the Republican Party inner circles and Kevin, similarly with the Democrat Party's inner circles. Does anyone, anyone talk about the characteristics of erudition, common sense, practicality for any of their candidates?

[Mark]

Carlton, I got to stop you there. Just because we're up against the clock. It's a very big topic, a huge topic, an important one. Kevin. And then Hogan, short answers, guys. And this is something we'll return to, but we got to move to a different guest in a minute. But go ahead, Kevin. And then Hogan briefly.

[Kevin]

Yeah, Carlton, thanks so much for those kind comments. You know, I think Hogan and I agree on a lot more than we disagree and we can argue on the margins. So much of our politics is performative, right? Just for media and attention and actually not getting things done. You know, look at, you know, for example, John Fetterman in my party and Katie Britt in the Republican Party. They're the point that the lead appropriators on dhs, they're common head, you know, common level heads that are hopefully going to be, you know, figuring out the funding situation going forward. And I hold up those two as examples of people that actually, you know, traffic in common sense and want to get things done. They're out there and we just, we have to celebrate those folks and hold those folks up on both sides to beat against the crazy folks on either side.

[Mark]

Hogan just Say amen.

[Hogan]

Just real quick. Kevin, you're right. My mother hates Gavin Newsom and goes, how in the world could anyone like Gavin Newsom? Look what she's done to California. And I'm like, but the people of California like it. That's what you have to understand here, too. Carlton Rather, is that, yes, both parties champion common sense, but they also both think they've cornered the market on it. We think we have all the common sense and they have none. They think they're common sense and we have none. That's why it turns into performative art oftentimes as opposed to productive conversation.

[Mark]

Carlton, thank you. Thank you, Carlton. Thank you for being part of Two Way and it's a topic we'll return to. All right, switching gears now to something that's super exciting for me leading up this State of the Union, we're going to partner with our friends at USA Facts for conversations that are driven by actual facts. Richard Coffin is here. Richard, so happy to have you. Richard has been with the organization from the start and is here. Explain a little bit more about what we're going to do. USA Facts takes government data and they make it usable. There's all sorts of data out there that a normal citizen, even a journalist, has trouble accessing without understanding how to put it in context, what it all means. Richard is the chief of research and advocacy at USA facts, an organization that is dedicated to figuring this stuff out and they present it in a way that is actually usable. It's an extraordinary organization doing extraordinary public service. And Richard, grateful to have you here.

[Richard]

Thanks, Bart. Great, great to be here and really appreciate that that that intro.

[Mark]

Okay, so again, this is nonpartisan. It's just taking government data, putting it in context, just the facts. That's why they put facts right in the name. USA FACTS has a website. They've got social media. We'll talk about how you can see their stuff. But in the run up to the State of the Union, Richard's going to join us every so often to talk about a topic that we're sure is going to be front and center of the State of the Union and do what USA FACTS does so well, which is put in context a certain topic. And we're going to start with maybe the most timely thing, which is immigration and the question of who's here, what is the government doing? And as I said, this is nonpartisan research based on taking government data, putting it in context. So, Richard, let's start with we're going to do just a couple of data points. Let's start with deportations. Where are we on deportations? Put the graphic up. We'll describe it for those of you listening to the podcast. Those of you watching will be able to see it. ICE is on pace to deport about 4,747, 470,000 people by the end of the year. Richard, what is the data show?

[Richard]

Yeah, that's absolutely right, Mark. And yeah, thanks again. I know, you know, we at USA Facts, we just take data from the government, and data from the government has, you know, it's always been interesting in terms of what's a bill and what's not. And so we're going to focus today just on deportations by ice. And I think that's really important context for everyone is just that ICE only does part of the deportations in this country. Right there, there are, there are, they've done anywhere between 25 and 50% of the deportations over the past decade. And so this is only a fraction of them, but it is the ones that ICE is, which is in the news so much is actually conducting. So, yeah, they're, they're on track to, to deport about 470,000 people in this coming fiscal year. They deported 320,000 people last year. That's far higher than what it was at the end of the Biden administration, where they were deporting about 143,000 and the 271,000 people in a given year as immigration surged in the later years of the administration and post Covid.

[Mark]

All right, so again, it's not just myth, it's not just rhetoric. The rate is up quite high. Okay, let's go to number two. This is about detainees, the number of folks who are detained every year. And what does this data show, Richard?

[Richard]

Yeah, ICE detentions are super interesting and talking really. They really show what is actually going on with any administration's take on immigration enforcement. And you can see they've gone up significantly in the late in the last year or so from about, you know, 40,000 at the end of last year to about a little over 70,000 now. And that's super interesting because part of the issue with, with ICE detentions is that there hasn't historically been that much space. This chart that you're seeing is the number of people on any given day who are in ICE detention. And it hovered around 30 to 40,000 over the entirety of the last administration. But in this administration, it went up significantly in the last year alone.

[Mark]

All right, third one, I love this one because it shows something. USA Facts does super well, which is visualization. This is about where ICE detention centers are around the country. And again, let me just describe it a little bit for those of you listening on the podcast. You can see they're all over the country, congregated more in the south, not a surprise, particularly the larger ones. But there are in the Northeast quite a few, including some very large centers. So, Richard, what is the story of this chart, this map show about ICE detention centers?

[Richard]

Right, Absolutely. So this shows the current detention centers, the 212 as of the last time we were able to check in December. And what's interesting here is that that's nearly double the amount that there were at the, at the beginning of the administration. Again, it's a take on the administration's interest in having more people in detention, you know, more capacity to do that, because of how they view some of the people that are here compared to the past administration, for sure.

[Mark]

And of course, it's in the news today because there's reports about ICE trying to acquire more big warehouse facilities, storage facilities, and turn them into, to detention centers. And some controversy because people who don't want ICE to expand is trying to protest that fact that efforts to expand. All right, last one is border crossings. This is attempted illegal border crossings and where, how they've gone since COVID and beyond. Richard, tell us this story, please.

[Richard]

Yeah, and I should say that this goes a little bit beyond ice. This is, this is all attempted border crossings between ports of entry at the southern border. So it's, it's not people that came through border checkpoints, it's people that were encountered between checkpoints. And you can see it is, it is way down. There's only about 6,500 people that were encountered in the most recent month. That's up. That's down, obviously, from what it was a year ago, which was about 47,000. And then two years ago in December, it was at about 250,000, which was the, the highest we've ever seen it. And that was during that crazy surge that we were seeing back in 2023. That, that also got in the news a ton. And you can see this is really, it's very cyclical, right? It, it, it sometimes has to do with administration policy, and it sometimes has to do with what's going on in the world. Right. Crises south of the border will, will drive people, you know, north. And so that's, that's something that you can see in these spikes throughout, even at the end of the last Trump administration, for example.

[Mark]

Really interesting, Kevin Question for Richard, and.

[Kevin]

I'd be interested to get Hogan's take too. What do we see, especially in this last screen too, that that precipitous drop is just extraordinary. Is it the, are there factors on the ground that have changed or is it just the, the folks in the Northern triangle that we've seen the most amount of migrants coming from have just gotten, you know, gotten wise and said we're not going to do this, at least during the Trump administration, you know.

[Richard]

It'S likely a little bit of everything. Border Patrol has and ICE have staffed up quite a bit. Right. And so, you know, there is likely more, more people, you know, patrolling. But, but also, yeah, certainly there's, there's the, the changes in global factors and the news about what's going on in this country when it comes to immigration enforcement that there really might be preventing people, but hard to, hard to see in the numbers other than just the steep drop is happening.

[Hogan]

Hogan, I think definitions matter too, in these conversations. So how are you guys defining deportations, meaning both the Obama administration, Biden administration, Bush administration defined deportation as turning someone away at the border. So they exorbitant millions of people type thing. So much so Obama, as you recall, was called the deporter in chief. This administration has to deal with people inside the country more, but they still turned away a ton of folks, as you just point out, with the drop of border crossings. So how are you guys defining these terms?

[Richard]

Right. So very good point. It really does matter. That particular chart was enforcement actions at the southwest border between ports of entry. So it wasn't administrative stuff like people showing up at a border crossing that didn't have authorization to be here. It was, it was, it was mostly people that was entirely people detained by mostly Border Patrol, cbp, not ICE in that last chart that were being turned away by the administration.

[Mark]

USA Facts has become invaluable to me since they came on my radar a little while ago because again, getting data digestible, analyzed and put in a visual form that you can use is invaluable. Richard's organization everywhere on social media. Their website, USAFacts.org you can sign up there to get their regular newsletter as well as to see all their regular stuff. Richard, again, tell people why you exist. Why, why is it, why have you been around for a decade doing this? What, what, what, what role are you filling that no one else is doing?

[Richard]

Yeah, thanks, Marc. It's. We started about, about a decade ago trying to make it so that Americans can have access to government data. We really view it as the way that people can understand what's going on in the country and decide what to do about it. So we chose to just take data from government, from the organization itself and help people have it, use it, visualize it, tell stories with it so that they can really decide for themselves what they want to do with the future of the country. And you know, I think today in this issue is a great example of where we try to make that impact.

[Mark]

Awesome. Again, you can see the address to the website is in the, in the YouTube description as well as in the chat on both YouTube and here. Richard, thank you. Looking forward to partnering with you through the midterm, through the State of the Union and beyond.

[Richard]

Thanks very much.

[Kevin]

This is so, so important that we're all playing from the same set of exactly same data.

[Mark]

It very much rhymes with the mission here, right? Nonpartisan, bipartisan and fact based conversations. And that's why we're so pleased to be working with USA Facts. Richard, thank you. Two more two ways today. I'm taking a rare night off because of a scheduling conflict. So Larry O' Connor will be hosting Two Way tonight. This evening, join Larry at 5 Eastern Time, New time, new host. And maybe I'll be Wally Pipped right out of a job. We'll see how Larry does 5:00pm Eastern Time tonight. And then lifelong with Ethan Supley. 7:00pm tonight, join Ethan for a conversation like no other about personal health and fitness. And I'll be back tomorrow 9:00am Eastern Time from a battleground state, can't say which, but I'll see you tomorrow 9:00am Eastern Time. Hogan, thank you. Kevin. Thank you. Look forward to seeing you guys back here again. Have a good day, everybody.

[Kevin]

Thanks, everybody.

[Hogan]

Thanks.