The Morning Meeting (2WAY)

Episode: What Does a Key Texas State Senate Vote This Weekend Tell Us About the Upcoming National Midterms?

Date: February 2, 2026
Host: Mark Halperin with panelists Kevin and Hogan

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the aftermath and national implications of a surprising Texas State Senate special election result, with a focus on what it signals for the upcoming U.S. midterms. Host Mark Halperin and his co-panelists, Kevin and Hogan, break down the Texas election's lessons for both parties, discuss congressional dynamics, immigration, and public sentiment, and feature a segment on fact-based policy analysis from USAFacts.

Key Topics and Insights

1. Texas Special Election: What Happened and Why It Matters

Segment Start: [09:03]

• Background:
  A Democratic candidate, a Lockheed machinist, won a Texas State Senate seat in a district Trump previously won by 17 points.
  • “A swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed.” — Kevin referencing Ron DeSantis on social media, [10:44].
• Republican Reaction:
  • DeSantis and other Republican consultants alarmed: “This is bad news, folks. This shows decline with Hispanics, young people, with women.” — Mark, [10:50].
  • Even Trump, who posted three times to support the Republican, distanced himself:
    “I didn’t hear about it… I’m not involved in that. That’s a local Texas race… Things like that happen.” — Trump, via Jackie, [11:33].
  • Hogan’s take: "This matters in large part because Donald Trump did win the district by such a big margin… If it’s indicative of a broader mindset of many voters out there, then you have to figure out how to stop that, change it, and look in opposite directions." — Hogan, [12:15].
  • Hogan gives Republican concern a 7.2 out of 10 on the “doom” scale, [14:05].
• Democratic Optimism:
  • Quality of the candidate and local messaging cited as key (“running the right folks that match the district”). The winner “works for Lockheed, which is like working for GM in Detroit,” [14:38].
  • Lower Republican turnout without Trump on the ballot; Democrats buoyed by the size of the swing, [16:16].
• Redistricting Backfire:
  Mark notes Texas GOP may have overplayed map drawing, possibly costing them more House seats, especially with declining Hispanic support, [15:44].

Notable Quote:

“I’ve long said this, that Donald Trump is the biggest natural turnout machine I have ever seen on a Republican ballot. And if the RNC… don’t know how to bottle that… it’s going to be very difficult.” — Hogan, [13:20]

2. What Does the Texas Result Mean for the National Midterms?

Segment Start: [14:12]

• Potential for Democratic Gains:
  • “If they can win this district… Does this mean Democrats can win 40 House seats?” asks Mark.
  • Kevin predicts “the ceiling is 40,” but only if current trends continue ([16:28]).
  • Both panelists agree it’s not likely to exceed 40 due to the lack of many competitive districts ([16:39]).
  • GOP faces demographic headwinds and questions about turnout without Trump himself.

3. Polling and the National Mood

Segment Start: [16:53]

• Public Sentiment:
  • Voters are in a “throw the bums out” mood; Pew poll shows nearly half of Americans see Trump’s actions as worse than expected ([17:01]).
  • Economic perception poll: Slight majority says Biden was better for them economically than Trump—"that's gotta kill the president," says Mark ([17:31]).
  • Fox News polls: Democrats have a significant lead in the generic Congressional ballot ([17:50]).

4. Markets React to Political Uncertainty

Segment Start: [18:41]

• Markets displayed “object lesson in volatility,” especially gold and silver dropping sharply; NASDAQ also down, [18:41].

• Kevin Warsh’s Appointment:

  • Question remains if markets are reacting positively to the new appointee—panel consensus is it’s too soon and that global events and stability have larger effects, [19:21].

5. The Machinist Who Won in Texas: Messaging and Lessons

Segment Start: [20:00]

• Candidate’s Approach:

  • Focused on solutions, not partisanship: “We had to focus on solutions, not partisan politics. Bringing communities together, that’s what it’s all about in Texas.” — Texas winner (via Morning Joe), [21:08].
  • Emphasized affordability and everyday issues: “People are struggling out here, choosing between rent and medicine. That shouldn’t happen in such a great economy like we have,” [21:43].

• Panel Discussion:

  • Kevin: “Not trying to build the Democratic brand, but running your race to the local issues is the way to do it,” [22:14].
  • Hogan, contrarian: “If I were teaching a class, which I have before, I would put that video up and go, don’t do this,” saying the winner was light on solutions’ specifics ([22:48]).

6. ICE and Congressional Negotiations

Segment Start: [24:11]

• Current Calm and Protests:
  • Issues of federal ICE operations and tensions over protests in Minnesota and elsewhere ([24:11]).
  • Negotiations over ICE and DHS funding:
    • Slim House margin complicates passage of CRs (continuing resolutions).
    • Big policy sticking points include warrants and funding for sanctuary cities; negotiations likely to be heated, with a new deadline of Feb 13 ([26:46]-[29:36]).

7. Epstein Files Release

Segment Start: [29:40]

• Panel consensus: The Epstein file disclosures have not satisfied public demands for transparency or accountability—majority of the public believes the government is still withholding information ([30:26]–[31:42]).

8. Foreign Affairs Flash Round

Segment Start: [32:00]

• Quick takes on Iran and Ukraine diplomacy:
  • Panel splits on whether a U.S.-Iran deal or a Ukraine-Russia deal is more likely ([32:00]-[32:21]).

9. Kennedy Center Renovation

Segment Start: [32:43]

• Announcement: Kennedy Center to close for two years for renovations—panel speculates on political optics, given Trump’s habit of delivering projects ahead of schedule ([33:19]).

10. Media & Political Image Management (Gavin Newsom’s Book Rollout)

Segment Start: [34:29]

• Media Influence:
  • Newsom gets dual New Yorker and Vanity Fair coverage with high-gloss Annie Leibovitz photos.
  • “He is the darling of the left right now,” says Hogan, while Mark points out Trump and Melania never got such treatment ([35:55]–[36:43]).
  • Discussion of whether such media rollouts help or hinder a supposed populist brand.

11. Listener Questions and Commentary

Segment Start: [38:02]

On Sanctuary Cities’ Legality

• Raised by Jackie (Pittsburgh): Is it legal for sanctuary cities to thwart federal immigration law? ([38:12]–[41:44])
  • Legal ambiguity persists; the issue is whether federal law can compel states/localities to use their resources to aid enforcement.
  • “It’s going to be challenged in Congress because one of the things that, if you want to have a debate over DHS, Republicans are saying, fine, we’ll have that debate. Why don’t we just strip the funding from sanctuary cities?” — Hogan, [39:19].

On Economic Policy Consistency (Tariffs, Deportations, and Wages)

• Raised by Wickham (Michigan): Why do Democrats oppose policies (tariffs, deportations) that theoretically could help working-class wages ([45:32]-[48:55])?
  • “Anything Trump, it’s reflective. They just hate it.” — Hogan, [47:57].
  • Kevin: “Lowest population growth in a generation… If we do remove all those folks… who will be out there in the fields doing this work?” ([49:00])
  • Complexity around labor markets, legal vs. undocumented labor, and conflicting economic and demographic pressures.

On the Absence of Common Sense in Both Parties

• Raised by Carlton: Do party insiders ever discuss common sense and practicality? ([51:07]-[53:44])
  • “So much of our politics is performative, right? Just for media and attention and actually not getting things done.” — Kevin, [52:58].
  • Hogan: “Yes, both parties champion common sense, but they also both think they’ve cornered the market on it.” ([53:46])

12. Fact-Based Policy Analysis: Immigration by USA Facts

Guest: Richard Coffin, USAFacts
Segment Start: [55:09]

• Deportations: ICE on track for 470,000 this year—much higher than final year Biden, but still only a portion of total removals ([56:09]).
• Detentions: ICE detention population has doubled in the last year.
• Distribution: 212 ICE detention centers nationwide—nearly double the start of the administration ([58:27]).
• Border Crossings: Illegal border crossings between entry points have plummeted from 250,000 two years ago to 6,500 last month ([59:20]).
• Definitions Matter: Differences in how “deportations” and “enforcement actions” are counted across administrations ([61:02]).
• Mission: USA Facts seeks to present government data accessibly for public understanding, aiming for nonpartisan, fact-driven discussion ([62:26]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Texas Race’s National Message

  “This matters in large part because Donald Trump did win the district… And then all of a sudden, the flip happened.” — Hogan, [12:15]

• On Candidate Quality

  “The real lesson learned is candidate quality matters.” — Kevin, [14:38]

• On Turnout Machine

  “Donald Trump is the biggest natural turnout machine I have ever seen…” — Hogan, [13:20]

• On Party Mentalities

  “Both parties champion common sense, but they also both think they’ve cornered the market on it.” — Hogan, [53:46]

• On Fact-Based Policy

  “It is so important that we’re all playing from the same set of data.” — Kevin, [63:08]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 09:03 – Texas special election debrief
• 10:44 – GOP reaction, DeSantis quote on loss
• 12:15 – Why the result matters for Republican strategy
• 14:12 – Lessons for Democrats, discussion of gains ceiling
• 16:53 – National polling, generic ballot, public mood
• 18:41 – Markets volatility, Warsh’s appointment
• 20:00 – Hearing from the Texas-winning machinist
• 24:11 – Immigration, ICE controversies, protests
• 29:40 – Epstein files recap
• 32:00 – Iran, Ukraine, and Kennedy Center updates
• 34:29 – Gavin Newsom media strategy
• 38:02 – Listener Q&A: sanctuary cities legality
• 45:32 – Listener Q&A: tariffs, deportations, wages
• 51:07 – Listener Q&A: common sense in party politics
• 55:09 – Immigration facts & data segment (USAFacts)

Original Tone and Style

In keeping with the fast-paced, sometimes jocular, and deeply political energy of network newsrooms, the panelists balance wit with wonkiness. Mark Halperin anchors with dry humor and rapid-fire questioning; Kevin brings measured Democratic commentary with optimism and subtle digs; Hogan provides excitable Republican responses, often with a touch of sarcasm. Panel banter is smart, occasionally sardonic, and trades insight for partisanship without shying from candid skepticism about both parties.

Summary Takeaways

• The Texas State Senate special election may be a bellwether for a challenging 2026 midterms for Republicans, highlighting the risk of waning turnout and shifting demographics.
• Both parties must grapple with messaging, candidate selection, and the national mood, which trends towards dissatisfaction with the status quo.
• Immigration, congressional gridlock, and media image-making remain dominant policy and political themes.
• Fact-based, nonpartisan data is increasingly central to meaningful public debate.

For deeper context, listen to the full show and consider visiting USAFacts.org for more on the immigration data shared.