Podcast Summary: The Morning Meeting

Episode: What's the Current Forecast for the 2026 Midterm Elections? Is Control of the Senate in Play?
Date: February 6, 2026
Host: Mark Halperin (A)
Co-Hosts: Larry (B), Melissa DeRosa (C)

Episode Overview

This episode zeroes in on the 2026 midterm elections, providing a candid analysis of the rapidly shifting political landscape. Mark Halperin, along with rotating co-hosts Larry and Melissa, discuss new polling showing Republican weakness, the possibility of a "blue wave" flipping the House and potentially the Senate, and the GOP’s struggles with messaging on issues like the economy and immigration. The panel also unpacks the fallout from an offensive social media post by President Trump, dramatic new developments in diplomacy with Iran, and the latest on the Epstein investigation. They wrap up with their “Winners and Losers of the Week” and answer listener questions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Agenda & Tone of Episode

[01:09–03:00]

• Mark introduces the panel (Larry, Melissa) and outlines the day’s schedule: midterm prognosis, big stories overlooked during the week (Savannah’s mom disappearance, Epstein), the President’s controversial Truth Social post, and Oman diplomatic talks.
• Emphasizes an informal, interactive tone: “Raise your hand if you want to be in on the conversation... Maybe horoscopes, your greatest aspirations, whatever.”

2. The 2026 Midterm Elections: Is the Senate in Play?

[06:02–17:00]

• GOP Anxiety and Blue Wave Possibility

  • Private GOP polling shows weakness in key Congressional and Senate races.
  • "Republicans now say not just the House, but the Senate is in play for a possible Democratic blue wave sweep in November." — Mark [07:15]

• Current Odds (“McLaughlin Style”)

  • Melissa: “Both [House and Senate], I would say, a six. The House alone, I would say, is ten.” [08:08]
  • Larry: “Both, three.” [08:12]

• Paths to a Senate Majority

  • Races in Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and North Carolina are all “on the table.” [08:30]
  • “It’s not necessarily because Democrats have some great proactive message…every day I feel like Republicans are trying…to lose.” — Melissa [08:34]

• Eric Erickson’s Warning & Republican Denial

  • "Eric Erickson…writes…Republicans are effectively doomed unless they make serious changes, including stop lying about the economy and ice operations." [07:35]
  • Mark and Larry reflect on historical precedent; since 1946, the president’s party has lost seats in all but two midterms–average: 25 seats lost, more if President’s approval is under 50% (Melissa) [10:54]

• Impact of Redistricting

  • Larry: “I don’t think we’re ever going to see that kind of swing of 30, 40, 50 seats...” [11:41]

• Republican Messaging Crisis

  • Mark: “No one should predict that Donald Trump will hurt his party by saying…something off message and outrageous because he’s done it for 10 years now and he’s won two out of three.” [15:59]

Notable Quote

• Mark: “Democrats…for much [of] the Biden administration…were in denial about saying the truth…if you’re a Republican and…say, ‘Hey, this is a dire situation,’ you get attacked. That deters some people from speaking the truth.” [12:14]

3. Trump's Offensive Social Media Post & Campaign Discipline

[15:59–19:40]

• The show reviews a video posted (or retweeted) by President Trump depicting Michelle and Barack Obama as monkeys, sparking immediate panel condemnation.

  • Larry: “It’s racist and it’s offensive.” [18:31]
  • Initially considers: Was it a deliberate endorsement or an unintentional share?
  • Melissa: “I don’t think he really deserves the benefit of the doubt given all his past comments…If you’re the President…and you’re retweeting a video, you actually spend the ten seconds to watch the whole video.” [19:29]

• The incident symbolizes the continuing lack of message discipline in the GOP and the risk of self-sabotage:

  • “This is about the Obamas. This was on Donald Trump’s True Social account.” — Mark [16:36]

Memorable Moment

Melissa (on Presidential standards): “If you’re the President…you actually spend the ten seconds to watch the whole video.” [19:40]

4. Oman Talks: U.S.–Iran Diplomacy Amidst Nuclear Tensions

[20:17–24:06]

• Recent diplomatic talks in Oman involving the U.S., Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, and Iran end without a breakthrough but with plans to reconvene.
• Coincidental major NYT story drops, showing Iran repairing missile facilities but not nuclear sites. Mark wonders if story placement is “turtle on a fencepost” (i.e., suspiciously convenient, [21:01]).
• Panel discusses context:
  • Olympics in Milan and Super Bowl weekend = “I am struck by that New York Times article.” — Larry [23:16]
  • Will the President strike Iran in midst of ongoing talks?

5. Jeffrey Epstein Case: Redactions, Fallout, and Political Risk

[24:06–34:33]

• House Oversight Chair Comer wants to call the Clintons to testify; Trump seems ambivalent, not keen to set precedent for ex-presidents testifying—panel ponders if it’s choreographed politically.

• Large swathes of Epstein case documents are still inexplicably redacted:

  • Melissa: “This is the problem…they’re going to have to explain why every single redaction was done. I don’t think they’re going to have good answers.” [28:55]

• CBS investigation into Epstein’s death: DOJ documents show an “orange colored shape” (possibly an inmate) moving up the staircase to Epstein’s tier at 10:39pm the night he died, reigniting suspicions among panelists about suicide vs. murder.

  • Mark: “...if someone’s hanging themselves, you would hear something. So even if you’re on your phone…you would hear something that would prompt you to go check on the person.” [33:55]

Notable Quote

“It just doesn’t make any sense...I think what I’ve always thought, which is the guy was killed.” — Mark [34:02]

6. Listeners’ Questions

[45:15–51:14]

• Notable call-in (Karen): Shares heartfelt reflection on JD Vance’s changed tone, linking it to trauma after witnessing the assassination of his best friend, Charlie.

  • Karen: “You cannot go through what JD went through and not be a completely different person…” [47:15]
  • Panel agrees personal tragedy can harden or shift public figures, but also stress the demands of political resilience.

• Melissa: “Politics is a blood sport…if you’re in at the highest levels…the fastballs come hard and fast to your head all day long and you either step up to it or step aside.” [50:07]

7. Winners and Losers of the Week

[41:14–44:02; 43:14–44:33]

Winners

• Larry: “Anybody on the fat shot—Trump RX rolled out…seems to be a real success story.” [41:23]
• Melissa: “Hakeem Jeffries…the results last weekend…continue to reinforce he is on a glide path to becoming speaker.” [41:58]
• Mark: Steve Witkoff for historic diplomatic negotiations (Gaza, Russia/Ukraine, Iran).

Losers

• Larry: “Loser of the week is…Kamala Harris…her big announcement was the biggest dud.” [42:49]
• Melissa: “Anyone on the Epstein list…the continued fallout…” [43:14]
• Mark: “The people of New York City…still giant piles of dirty snow and garbage all over this city…” [43:30]

8. Quick Hits & Other Highlights

• Infrastructure Deal

  • President offers to fund NYC tunnel if Schumer agrees to rename Penn Station and Dulles after Trump.
    • “Schumer should take it…what are you really giving away other than putting a name on a train station?” — Larry [37:49]
    • “Schumer is absolutely not going to do that.” — Melissa [38:15]

• Savannah’s Mom Disappearance

  • FBI should take over due to local law enforcement incompetence; Governor “missing in action.” [40:03]
    • Melissa: “The FBI should sideline the locals…give people confidence this is being handled the right way.” [40:47]

• Witkoff-Kushner Diplomacy

  • Both bring unique skills—good cop/bad cop dynamic, real estate expertise in high-stakes talks, and the President’s confidence.
    • “Anytime you’re negotiating something really complicated…it’s good to have a good cop and a bad cop.” — Melissa [57:38]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Midterms Deep Dive: [06:02–17:00]
• Trump Social Media Post: [15:59–19:40]
• Iran–Oman Talks: [20:17–24:06]
• Epstein Case Analysis: [24:06–34:33]
• Winners and Losers of the Week: [41:14–44:33]
• Listener Calls: [45:15–51:14] (especially Karen’s call at [45:15])
• Witkoff/Kushner Diplomacy: [56:27–60:20]

Notable Quotes

• Melissa DeRosa [08:34]:
  "It's not necessarily because Democrats have some great proactive message here. It's because every day I feel like Republicans are trying actively with all their might, to lose."

• Mark Halperin [12:14]:
  “If you're a Republican...and you say, ‘Hey, this is a dire situation,’ you get attacked. That deters some people from speaking the truth.”

• Larry [18:31]:
  "If the President had tweeted that picture that I'm looking at right now, it's racist and it's offensive."

• Mark [34:02]:
  “I could set the Internet on fire by saying, at this point, I think what I’ve always thought, which is the guy was killed. I mean, it just doesn't make any sense.”

Episode Tone & Style

Conversational, unscripted, and irreverent but grounded in fact-based reporting and political realism. The panelists don’t hold back in their critiques or in highlighting absurdities—whether in political messaging, media coverage, or institutional dysfunction. There is a mix of dark humor, especially around the Epstein investigation and the more absurd aspects of campaign politics.

Summary Takeaway

This episode is a snapshot of a political moment marked by Republican panic, Democratic optimism, and a media environment swirling with scandals, gaffes, and intrigue. The panel dissects the uncertainty of a potentially transformative midterm, lays bare the GOP's internal battles, and holds nothing back when evaluating political strategy, ethical lapses, and the broader consequences for American governance as the 2026 elections approach.