Who's the Leading Democratic Presidential Hopeful for 2028? Erika Kirk Denounces Conspiracy Theories

Summary

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The Morning Meeting – December 11, 2025

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode of "The Morning Meeting" (hosted by Mark Halperin with guest hosts Larry O'Connor and Kevin) delivers a "newsroom war room" style briefing on the most urgent stories in U.S. and global politics. The focus alternates between a dramatic military action involving Venezuela, polling on President Trump’s performance, Congressional dysfunction over health insurance subsidies, redistricting battles, and the escalating fallout from conspiratorial infighting on the American right. The show also takes listener questions and weighs the leading Democratic contenders for the 2028 presidential nomination.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

U.S. Seizes Oil Ship from Venezuela: "Pirates or Sanctions?"

• Mark Halperin opens with amazement at the U.S. Military’s seizure of a Venezuelan oil ship, describing it as a "pirate" move unprecedented in recent history ([06:16]).
  • Quote: “I don’t remember the United States military and other parts of the federal government being used as pirates to seize someone else's ship and to steal their oil.” — Mark Halperin [06:16]
• Larry O’Connor justifies aggressive enforcement of sanctions, citing Venezuela’s criminal regime and threat in the region ([07:05]).
• Following Maria Corina Machado’s Nobel Peace Prize and her harrowing escape, the hosts discuss political instability in Venezuela and U.S. strategy ([12:06]).
  • Quote: “Venezuela has turned into a... country in which the state applies terrorism. The regime... has applied state terrorism towards innocent people.” — Maria Corina Machado (via BBC, read by Erica Kirk) [12:06]
• Larry summarizes U.S. options: squeeze Maduro financially, force exile, or full military engagement, concluding ground troops are unlikely and Rubio’s “Monroe Doctrine” is back ([14:41]).
• Notable exchange: Kevin and Larry marvel at the historic, risky nature of the U.S. taking oil by force and debate the long-term fallout and effectiveness ([16:40]).

Ukraine-Russia Peace Plan: Skepticism on Quick Resolution

• Ukraine’s response to a U.S.-influenced peace plan is discussed, with both hosts doubting a holiday breakthrough ([18:15]).
  • Larry: “By Christmas, that's going to be tight… I’m more bullish than before but still skeptical.” [18:35]
  • Kevin: “We blew past the deadline for Thanksgiving. I don’t see it happening before Christmas.” [18:57]

Trump’s Polling Woes: Approval Lowest Yet

• Mark shares latest AP polling, finding Trump’s economic approval at 31% and his overall approval at 36%—a record low ([21:06]).
  • Quote: "If you dig into this AP poll, it’s horrible for the President. It’s horrible across the board." — Mark Halperin [21:06]
• Kevin: Trump is distracted by the international stage and needs to “hammer home” affordability at home ([22:02]).
• Larry: Trump should emphasize forthcoming benefits from the reconciliation package and not gaslight voters about their real financial pain ([23:00]).
  • Quote: “Don’t make it sound like people are out of their minds if they feel the squeeze right now.” — Larry O’Connor [23:00]

Health Care Subsidy Cliff: No Consensus, Chaos Looms

• The Republican Congress is deadlocked over expiring Obamacare (ACA) subsidies, with party split between endangered moderates (want an extension) and conservatives (opposed) ([24:00]).
• Larry expects a temporary “emergency ripcord deal”—a short extension—while deeper differences remain ([26:42]).
• Kevin argues any short fix will still need to be at least a year due to insurance market dynamics ([27:19]).
• The hosts agree whatever extension materializes will come with anti-fraud provisions to appease House conservatives ([28:44]).

Economy, Messaging, and Trump’s “Old Tricks”

• Politico reports Republicans have given up on getting discipline from Trump regarding messaging on the economy—he’ll stay “always up” while others do the empathetic messaging ([28:53]).
• Larry provides a Reagan comparison, noting Trump’s optimistic style is more blunt (“ball-peen hammer”) than Reagan’s velvet glove ([33:36]).
  • Quote: “Reagan was always optimistic, too—even when we were in the middle of a recession. But he was optimistic with a velvet glove and Trump is optimistic with a ball peen hammer.” — Larry O’Connor [33:36]
• Consensus: surrogates will address pain, but Trump won’t change; it’s up to others to supplement the message.
  • Quote: “You can’t teach an old dog new tricks, especially if the old dog loves the old tricks.” — Mark Halperin [34:43]

Redistricting Update: GOP Gains, But Risks Remain

• Indiana's redistricting could eliminate two Democratic seats, part of a national trend favoring Republicans ([37:27]).
• Mark notes GOP is set for net gains (+5 to +12) on current and pending maps—but cautions against overconfidence, especially in competitive Texas districts ([38:13]).
• Kevin: Demographics in newly redrawn districts might backfire on Republicans if coalitions shift ([38:13]).

Epstein Files: Will December Bring Bombshells?

• With judge ordering some Epstein grand jury records released, Mark asks if bombshell revelations will drop this month.
  • Kevin: “I don’t think so... I don’t think there’s going to be any new... information.” [40:13]
  • Larry: “Yes. And I don’t think it’s going to be good for Democrats.” [40:29]

MAGA Infighting and Conspiracy Theories: The Candace Owens/Charlie Kirk Saga

• Extended discussion of Candace Owens’ conspiracy attacks after Charlie Kirk’s death. Kirk’s camp plans a public rebuttal ([40:34]).
  • Erica Kirk (on Fox): “When you go after my family... my Charlie Kirk show family... and you're making hundreds and thousands of dollars every single episode, going after the people that I love... No.” [41:39]
• Larry draws parallels to conspiracy theories after Andrew Breitbart’s death, strongly condemns Owens' tactics ([43:17]).
  • Quote: “It breaks my heart. And Candace should go to hell.” — Larry O’Connor [44:28]

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Listener Q&A Highlights

• Trans Issues in Dem Politics: Gavin Newsom’s position (“wants to see trans children thrive” due to family connection) is noted as risky for the general electorate; hosts agree it's a delicate balancing act for 2028 hopefuls ([49:12]).
• Republican Messaging: Audience pressed whether Trump can explain “affordability is a hoax” without alienating voters. Larry: Republicans down-ballot will need to develop their own messaging as 2026 may be all about Trump by default ([52:09]).
• Redistricting and Election Prospects: Discussion underscores how narrow congressional majorities and artificial districts create ongoing uncertainty for both parties.

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2028 Democratic Hopefuls: Halperin’s "8 for 28"

• Mark previews his upcoming list of the top eight most likely Democratic presidential nominees, confirming Gavin Newsom as #1. The Pritzker vs. Rahm Emanuel choice for the “Illinois slot” divides regular and guest hosts:
  • Kevin: “I'm with the billionaire man. He can fund his own campaign. ...I'm with Pritzker on this one.” [63:06]
  • Larry: “I fear Rahm more... I think Rahm has a better job of winning Iowa...” [63:18]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On U.S. foreign adventurism:
  • “Isn’t it crazy that we seized the ship and took the oil? … I just don’t remember anything like this.” — Mark Halperin [17:09]
• On party divisions:
  • “They have ideas. They just don't have consensus.” — Mark Halperin (on GOP health care) [24:00]
• On Candace Owens:
  • “Candace should go to hell.” — Larry O’Connor [44:28]
• 2028 Dem nomination realities:
  • “There are no perfect candidates... But he's still the most likely because there's no one perfect running.” — Mark Halperin (on Gavin Newsom) [51:15]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• U.S. “pirates” Venezuela oil ship: [06:16]–[17:09]
• Machado on Venezuela repression: [12:06]
• Ukraine-Russia peace prospects: [18:15]–[19:42]
• AP poll: Trump’s faltering approval: [21:06]–[23:00]
• GOP health care deadlock: [24:00]–[28:53]
• Economy messaging dilemma: [28:53]–[34:43]
• Redistricting update: [37:27]–[39:29]
• Epstein files release?: [39:44]–[40:34]
• Owens vs. Kirk conspiracy showdown: [40:34]–[44:28]
• Q&A on Democratic positioning & 2028: [49:12]–[54:40]
• Who should get the “Illinois slot” for 2028: [63:06]–[64:33]

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Tone & Takeaways

Spirited, irreverent, and deeply plugged-in—Mark Halperin, Larry O’Connor, and Kevin blend cutting analysis of live news, policy, and political tactics with an insiders’ candor rarely heard on mainstream cable. Listeners come away with a sense of the day’s true political divides and the underlying calculations that shape media coverage, policy debates, and the evolution of party leadership on both sides.

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For further listening:

• Mark Halperin’s 8-for-28 segment on the 2028 Democratic field (releasing separately later that day, with more in-depth coverage of leading contenders and strategic vulnerabilities).
• Special: Erica Kirk and Turning Point USA’s response to Candace Owens’ conspiracy theories (scheduled for Dec 15).

Transcript

[James Patterson]

I'm James Patterson. I write way too many books. Welcome to Hungry Dogs. The title comes from my maternal grandmother, Isabel Zelvis Morris. Nan used to always say, hungry dogs run faster, James. And I've been running fast ever since. Here's what will be coming your way soon. And this is a really terrific list. I think you'll hear from some incredible people like Stacey Abrams.

[Mark Halperin]

Yay.

[James Patterson]

BJ Novak.

[Kevin]

Yay.

[James Patterson]

Kathy Bates. Dolly Parton, Josh Gad. And Pope Leo. Okay, maybe not Pope Leo, but who knows? Maybe he'll show up. Hungry dogs run faster. Thank you, Grandma, for turning me into a hopeless, obsessive, compulsive. Listen to Hungry Dogs with James Patterson. That'd be me on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

[Mark Halperin]

This is it. The world as you know it is over. Completely done. It's not about to be over. It's over. Some of the scientists who helped build AI are now sounding the alarm.

[Erica Kirk]

I was selling AI as a great thing for decades and I was wrong.

[Larry O'Connor]

I was wrong.

[Professor Kenney]

There is a longer term existential threat that will arise when we create digital beings that are more intelligent than ourselves. We have no idea whether we can stay in control.

[Mark Halperin]

While others say that AI will usher in unfathomable abundance, I've always believed that.

[Erica Kirk]

It'S going to be the most important.

[Mark Halperin]

Invention that humanity will ever make. This really will be a world of abundance. And among these fears and these fantasies, we seek the story of our future. Listen to the last invention on Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Everybody. Thank you for being part of the two way experience. It's the morning meeting for Thursday, December 11th, and we've got two great guest hosts today. Joining us, Larry O'. Connor. You've seen him before. He's the. He's the voice of the conscience of America. He's like, if Pat Buchanan and.

Hunter S. Thompson had a baby, it would be Larry o'. Connor. I'll take that. And Kevin. Kevin stepping in for the first time. Kevin was a surrogate for the Biden folks, longtime Democratic strategist. And Kevin, just tell people where you were born and what your favorite thing about your hometown is.

[Kevin]

I grew up in central New Jersey, right outside Princeton, so great college town to grow up in. So go Tigers. It was a beautiful suburban lifestyle to grow up and came down to D.C. just about 25 years ago or so.

[Mark Halperin]

Let's talk about how suburban it was. If you left your front door and you walked how far, how long would it Take you to walk to a place where you could buy a quart of milk.

[Kevin]

Probably like a good 15 minutes.

[Mark Halperin]

15 minutes.

[Kevin]

So it was like cul de sac central.

[Mark Halperin]

I got that beat. I got that beat. I was like 35 minutes to walk to anything. It's ridiculous. That's why I live in an urban environment now. Rebelling. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the morning meeting. As I said, this is based on the network news division's morning meetings. As you know, if you're here on the platform, want to get in on the conversation. Maybe you've never raised your hand before and you thought, I wonder as I go through life on my bucket list. Well, you know, I want to, I want to go to a Super bowl and like to walk on the Great Wall of China. And someday I'd like to be able to ask Kevin Walling and Larry o' Connor a question. Probably never going to get to achieve the third one. I just have to resign myself to that. Well, ladies and gentlemen, your bucket list is wide open today because you have the opportunity to do that. Raise your hand. No smack in the chat on YouTube, please. The Smackitude should lower for the holidays. Peace, love and understanding. Blah, blah, blah. Thank you for your attention to that matter and all other matters that we're about to engage in here in this hour. Lots to cover and I said it last night on two way tonight. This is a December to remember. It's a lot of news coming and shoes are going to be dropping. It'd be like Imelda Marcos closet during a hurricane. Or earthquake maybe. Maybe earthquake would be be better.

[Kevin]

She's still going strong out there too. I think she's still in office out there in the Philippines.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, well, or maybe like her niece. I don't know. Is it really Imelda herself? Anyway, I'm gonna do a quick ad for one of our sponsors. One, you know, and then we'll get right to it. Our friends at Cozy Earth want you to know that you can still save an extraordinary 40% off everything on the site. Bubble, cuddle, blanket, the sheets, the towels, the pants. Oh, the pants. And then of course the t shirts. Everything. 40% off right now. Now, this sale will not last forever. It's going away pretty soon, I happen to know. So if you want to get in on it and buy yourself some stuff and maybe buy some stuff for friends and family for the holidays, now's the time. Go to cozyearth.com promo code 2WMM promo code 2WM. Give the gift of everyday luxury. This holiday season. You can buy it all folks for 40% off if you don't have the pants or bubble cuddle blanket.

[Kevin]

I don't want to say, I don't.

[Mark Halperin]

Want to say I think less of you, but you're making a huge mistake. You just are. They're both great. Buy the pants, buy the bubble cuddle blanket and then towels. If you want to get new towels for yourself or maybe for your daughter in law, your son in law, now's the time. 40% off everything on the site cozyearth.com promo code 2 WMM give the gift of comfort that lasts beyond the holidays and carries into a cozy new year.

[James Patterson]

I'm James Patterson. I write way too many books. Welcome to Hungry Dogs. The title comes from my maternal grandmother, Isabel Zelvis Morris. Nan used to always say, hungry dogs run faster, James. And I've been running fast ever since. Here's what will be coming your way soon. And this is a really terrific list. I think you'll hear from some incredible people like Stacey Abrams.

[Mark Halperin]

Yay.

[James Patterson]

BJ Novak.

[Kevin]

Yay.

[James Patterson]

Kathy Bates, Dolly Parton, Josh Gad. And Pope Leo. Okay, maybe not Pope Leo, but who knows, Maybe he'll show up. Hungry dogs run faster. Thank you, grandma, for turning me into a hopeless, obsessive compulsive. Listen to Hungry Dogs with James Patterson. That'd be me on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

[Mark Halperin]

Gentlemen. I, I've. I've lived a long life and I've seen a lot. I don't remember the United States military and other parts of the federal government being used as pirates to seize someone else's ship and to steal their oil. Larry, has that ever happened in your knowledge?

[Larry O'Connor]

Maybe not with oil, but certainly with weapons. You remember we had an arms embargo against North Korea?

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Larry O'Connor]

A little while back. I want to say it was, yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

But, but, but again, oil, oil's. Oil's not weapons. And again, I'm not saying I'm opposed to what they did or anything. I'm just saying, is there any example you can give at all that's the.

[Larry O'Connor]

Closest, closest example for oil? No, but, but it is. I mean, listen, we have sanctions for a reason we ever have. We don't, you know.

[Mark Halperin]

Okay, but, so Larry, just slippery slope here. Can we go take every bit of oil, can we accept every one of their ships and take the oil?

[Larry O'Connor]

If we have sanctions against a nation, we need to be prepared to enforce those sanctions. Otherwise the sanctions are meaningless. Now, specifically with Venezuela here, it's in our backyard. And they are and have become a direct threat to our country through their drug trafficking and through what they're doing with the money that they sell illicitly on the world stage. So, yeah, absolutely.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, Kevin, do you have any issue with just the concept of seizing these ships and taking the oil?

[Kevin]

Well, listen, I think there's a lot more questions than answers at this point. The president was asked what he's going to do with the oil and he said, I guess we're going to keep it. So this is a new chapter in this ever evolving dynamic in the Pacific here in Latin America, Southern America with the Gerald Ford down there and these F35s doing sorties all over Venezuela and is the declared, you know, free airspace that the president is maintaining on Truth Social. So, you know, these, these stories are changing every hour from south down there.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, we'll get to a little bit more on this and show you some good video related to it in a second. Run through the daybook. Here's the White House pool today. Fox is the TV crew and correspondent. PBS is the backup there. New York Times is the print pooler and New Media's Town hall and Bloomberg secondary print. So a mix of some of the fan favorites of the White House and maybe less so pbs, the New York Times. And again it shows they have not changed the pool entirely.

[Larry O'Connor]

All legacy except for New Media's town hall, which, full disclosure, I work for Town Hall. That's my.

[Mark Halperin]

But you're not the pool. You're not the Pooler today, are you?

[Larry O'Connor]

I'm not the Pooler. I don't know who the Pooler is. Katie Pierre Pavlich for a while.

[Mark Halperin]

Do you consider Bloomberg to be legacy?

[Larry O'Connor]

Ish. I mean, ish.

[Mark Halperin]

They're right in the middle.

[Larry O'Connor]

They go 40, 40 years. When did Bloomberg start?

[Mark Halperin]

Great question, great question. I worked there. I'd have no idea. I didn't.

[Larry O'Connor]

I want to say late 80s, early 90s.

[Mark Halperin]

Here's the president's schedule today. Participates in a. I think you're right in one form, but not in its current form. President participates in some sort of signing ceremony. Currently closed press at 4:45. If they open that up, ladies and gentlemen, I will have all the content I need for two way tonight. Then remarks at the Congressional Ball, which is open to the pool at 8:15 tonight. Full coverage on the morning meeting tomorrow for sure. But the centerpiece, the president turns things over to Caroline Levitt who briefs at one o'. Clock. So there'll be lots of questions there, including presumably about how it is that we're just stealing oil from other countries. Now, J.D. vance don't know what he's doing today. Kristi Noem, president yesterday, gave her a big vote of confidence saying he doesn't understand why people say she's going. She's doing a great job. She's testifying in front of Homeland Security on the House side today. And then she and Pete Hegseth at 1 o'.

[John Thune]

Clock.

[Mark Halperin]

That's at 10. At 1 o', clock, she and Pete Hegseth are leading a FEMA Review Council meeting. Lots going on on the Hill, particularly on healthcare. The Senate Rules Committee is hearing something at 10:30ameasure to reduce senators pay if there's a government shutdown. 11:30 is when they vote on the two proposals, neither of which will pass. And they're also taking up the NDAA that passed the House. So health care and the NDAA House is going to vote at 130 on the discharge petition that Jared golden has gotten up for consideration to repeal Trump administration executive orders that prevent collective bargaining from some federal workers. And then at 4 o', clock, they're considering an impeachment resolution on the President Zelensky. President Zelensky is supposed to do a call at some point today with European and NATO allies to build support for his desire to be in the EU. Indiana State Senate is voting at 1:30 Eastern on the redistricting package. And while it appeared doomed up until recently, there's some talk now that the White House and the speaker of the U.S. house have put enough pressure on that that thing may pass.

That's where we are. All right, you've all seen the video everywhere of the various angles of the US Military and others, parts of the federal government taking this ship. And just to be clear, I don't use pirate in a pejorative way when I say the US Government acted as pirates. Pirates are great. Pittsburgh Pirates and, you know, swashbucklers. I love Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean. I'm not using pirates. I don't use gypsy in a pejorative way either. Just somebody who moves around. So just to be clear on that, now, the president talked yesterday, said yes, Kevin said we're keeping the oil. Here is Maria Corina Machado, who won the Nobel Peace Prize, a very good relationship with the president. President, there's been speculation that she would become the head of Venezuela if Maduro is removed. Clearly, there's still an effort to do that. Here is Maria Carina Machado describing conditions in her own country, an interview with the BBC. She didn't get to Oslo in time to get the Peace Prize herself. Her daughter accepted it, but she went to Europe anyway. I still don't quite understand. She went to aftermath, but here she is in an interview with the BBC. 104, please.

[Erica Kirk]

I have to ask you about the version of the story that is now widely circulating about your escape. It's being talked about here in Oslo, it's in some press as well that you had to wear a wig, a disguise. You went through 10 military checkpoints, a fishing boat to Curacao, a private jet, Miami to Oslo. What can you tell us about what must have been a frightening and dangerous escape from Venezuela? Well, it's important to understand exactly what you're saying. I mean, Venezuela has turned into a nation, a country in which the state applies terrorism. The regime that has control of all institutions has applied state terrorism towards innocent people and committed crimes against humanity. And everybody that dares to speak out to defend any of your basic rights.

Takes a huge risk and probably ends in prison.

[Mark Halperin]

So, Kevin, Democrats are very concerned about what the president's doing with no declaration of war and no real understanding of what the mission is. And he continues to talk about maybe forces on the ground. There's some MAGA concern.

And Don Bacon's always concerned because that's what Don Bacon's there to do. I was surprised to hear unbidden yesterday from a Republican member of Congress who's a big supporter of the president who said there's a lot of concern up here about what's going on. They don't really understand it. So Kevin, what is going on? And is Maduro going to be, you know, is the president going to intimidate him out without firing a shot?

[Kevin]

Well, certainly they're going down this road of this maximum pressure campaign. We've seen this in the past, you know, with the president and Iran and their leadership. And again, I think, you know, we talked about this last week. You have a Congress that's been so willing over the decades to cede so much power, especially when it comes to military force, to the executive. And now, you know, you have some mainstream Republicans kind of popping their heads back up. And we'll see that. There's that Armed Armed Services Committee hearing about the National Guard. I'm certainly this is going to come up during that hearing. I think it's at 9:30 or 10 this morning. Roger Wicker has expressed some concerns as the Republican chairman of that committee about some of the exploration of military force. But Mark, to Your point? If ground troops or some ground invasion is involved, I think you're going to see a lot more Republicans come out and voice some concerns about the actions down there.

[Mark Halperin]

Larry, I hate to oversimplify, but it seems to me there's three options. One is the president tries to intimidate him out, Maduro stays, and that's that. Two is he gets Maduro to voluntarily leave under intense pressure, and three is some sort of military engagement to force him out. Are we headed clearly to one of those three or which, which.

[Larry O'Connor]

Where we. Well, if by intimidate him out, you mean squeeze him out financially and bleed him dry, because that seems to be what's happening, happening here. If he can't trade in illicit oil and he doesn't get his cut of the narco trafficking, he's not going to last very long. I think the country has about a billion dollars in reserves. That ain't going to cut it for them for this kleptocracy. So you might see some sort of negotiated. Remember when these banana republic leaders used to always end up in exile in Uruguay or Paraguay or. One of the guys.

[Mark Halperin]

One of the guys.

[Larry O'Connor]

So I think that might be where this leads. I don't think there's any stomach for any actual ground forces or military. And I think what you're seeing is Marco Rubio's interests as Secretary of State sort of really coming to full realization. He believes, and I agree with him, that we have neglected our own backyard. We've neglected Latin America, and Maduro and the regime in Venezuela represent a very real problem and a problem that can be solved utilizing American might and influence and yes, sometimes, if necessary, the military within certain constraints. I think the Republican concern right now has to do with the politics of it, because it appears as though the President and the administration are more interested in foreign endeavors than domestic concerns.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. One more foreign policy topic in just a minute, and then we'll do some domestic stuff. You guys know how old Maduro is? Any idea? Like 50, 63.

[Larry O'Connor]

Really?

[Mark Halperin]

63. But I mean, you know, is he gonna go live in Qatar for 40 years or 25 years, whatever it is? I don't know.

[Larry O'Connor]

He'd be Tucker's neighbor.

[Mark Halperin]

Could be Tucker's neighbor. Maybe they could. Maybe they could get, like a condo. That. That'd be a great roommate story. Oh, right. Yeah.

[Kevin]

All I know is that the Monroe Doctrine is back, baby.

[Mark Halperin]

You know, it is back. It's an incredible story. And, and, and, you know, I. I can guarantee you, even though pollsters ask people about this. Voters don't care about this. They're not focused on this. But if there's a ground war, they would be. Yeah, but I'll tell you.

[Larry O'Connor]

Have you been to the Caribbean lately? I. I used to. I spent some time in Antigua when I go on vacation. Have you seen China's presence down there?

China's embassies in the Caribbean are ginormous. What the hell are they doing?

[Mark Halperin]

You can get kung pao chicken on any block with a side of salsa. Any block. Again, guys, just to close this up, because. Because I just need another reality check. I had the same pinch me, slap me posture on two way to night. I'm not saying I'm for it or against it. I'm just saying, isn't it crazy that we seized the ship and took the oil? Now that crazy? I'm not saying it's good or bad because I don't really even know what I think about it, but I just don't remember anything like this.

[Larry O'Connor]

It's remarkable. I mean, it evokes the Barbary engagement with, you know, letters of mark and reprisal. Right.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[Larry O'Connor]

But again, I go back, listen, these sanctions were put in place in 17 and then really up the ante in 2019.

[Mark Halperin]

But to the sanctions, do the sanctions say if we see a ship that sanctioned, we can take it? Is that.

[Larry O'Connor]

I don't know if there's fine print in there, but if they violate the sanctions, then yes, we can. And the Biden administration did not do anything to downgrade these sanctions. They just did what most administrations do, which is put out a press release and say, we're doing this, and then it doesn't have any teeth.

[Mark Halperin]

Right. All right. I find it confusing, I'll say that. All right.

Just really quickly, Russia, Ukraine, number 105. Zelenskyy's got a new plan. We don't know what's in it yet. At least I haven't seen it reported yet. Although David Ignatius is calm. Yesterday we talked about it. Has some stuff. Here's the headline from Axios. Ukraine officially responds to US Peace plan under pressure from Trump. Guys, just quickly on this. Larry, Bullish or bearish on a deal by Christmas.

[Larry O'Connor]

By Christmas, that's going to be tight. We're two weeks out. But I'm more bullish on this, especially as you mentioned yesterday after the Ignatius column, it sounds like if Russia is on board with this, it's a pretty good deal for Ukraine, all things being equal.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, so you're. You're bullish on a deal but not necessarily in the next two weeks.

[Larry O'Connor]

Yeah, maybe. Maybe by the one year anniversary of Trump's inauguration. Let's go.

[Mark Halperin]

Okay. Kevin, bullish or bearish this morning?

[Kevin]

I mean, we blew past the deadline for Thanksgiving. I don't see it happening before Christmas. You know, he's got the coalition of the willing, you know, meeting in, in London with a bunch of those folks. The one, you know, interesting element is that, you know, the House passed the national defense authorization, 400 billion or 900 billion, 400 million every year for Ukraine for the next two years. That's a little cap in Zelensky's hat here to say, you know, that America is still with us despite the, you know, the Trump administration taking over.

[Mark Halperin]

And there's also a provision in there that says the administration can't take forces out of Europe without getting Congress's permission. That's a pretty big deal too, which, you know, good for Zelenskyy as well.

[Larry O'Connor]

Mark, do you think Russia will go along with this? I'd be shocked.

[Mark Halperin]

I don't, I don't, I don't. But I have to believe those in the administration whose body language is very optimistic. You know, we still don't really know what happened in Moscow and we still don't really know what happened in Miami, but you know, they're proceeding all right. Hovering over pretty much every domestic political issue and governmental issue is the President's standing, his popularity, his ability to convey things that'd be true on healthcare, on the economy, on redistricting fights, on this MAGA versus MAGA stuff, on the President's Yohan Warner brothers. There's just a lot depends on that new Associated Press poll out today. The polling on the president has been extremely consistent across polls. And that's of course, what you want to see because if you want actual know what's going on and it's very bad, and the President's own advisors would tell you his polling is not good Right now. Here's the AP poll. It's super interesting and kind of basic approval of the presence on the economy declined since March. So you see on the economy amongst Republicans in March it was 78. It's down to 69 now. Democrats haven't approved, although it's down a little bit. And then overall, his approval on the economy is down to 31%. If you dig into this AP poll, it's horrible for the President. It's horrible across the board. So let me give you a few other numbers from the poll. Overall, adults approve of his economy 31%.

Most worrying for Trump, who's become synonymous with his party, he slips on issues that were major strengths. Few months ago, 53% approved of his performance on crime. Now that's down to 43% on crime. Right. Immigration, he was at 49% in March. He's now down to 38. Okay. Now the AP says the good news for Trump is that his overall proven approval rating hasn't fallen as steeply as in some of these other areas. But his approval rating, the AP poll, is 36%. That's as low as I remember him being. And it's down from 42% in March. So that's the overhang here. We'll talk briefly about the polls. Then we're going to move into some of these topics where again, the fact that the president does not have the sway he did before. Other politicians in the Republican Party know that. Kevin, if you were the president's political adviser, what would you tell him about this AP poll?

[Kevin]

Well, listen, I think, you know, it's hitting home. You know, you've played in recent conversations, the interviews with Susie Wiles about getting the president back out on the campaign trail. Looks like the president has been really enamored, as most second term presidents are with all the international elements being fettered overseas and stuff like that, talking about peace plans while at home. The domestic situation is starting to come home to Republicans in these special elections and this administration. So obviously the first step was getting getting out to Scranton this past week on, on Monday, on the 9th. We'll see. And he had a realization in that speech that he acknowledges that, you know, he talks about affordability being a scam, but he also acknowledges that costs are too high for American families. They got to hammer home that message, figure out what they're doing on health care. He hasn't weighed in and I know we're going to talk about this too. He hasn't weighed in on the dueling plans with the Republicans yet. So he's got to provide some direction to the party, especially on the affordability elements.

[Mark Halperin]

Larry, what would you tell the president about that AP poll?

[Larry O'Connor]

Yeah, as always, you couch it with the good news, bad news. The good news is despite him being down, popularity rise right now, he's still better than Biden was at this time. You got to throw that out there when you're approaching the president, I think, and that is good. But yeah, I mean, even though there have been some tangible wins this year and a lot of good things have gone on, especially fulfilling the promises of his campaign, the American people have yet to feel it. And what they need to do is go on the offensive and remind people that a bulk of the Trump agenda for the economy was wrapped up in the reconciliation package. And a huge chunk of that stuff hasn't even gotten enacted yet. It doesn't get enacted until January 1st. So there's, there's some lag here. And you got to just keep plowing ahead knowing that things will get better. And don't make it sound like people are out of their minds if they feel the squeeze. Right now.

[Mark Halperin]

There's still activity in the House Republican leadership after yesterday's meeting trying to find some sort of health care compromise. The reality is.

There'S certainly no health Republican driven, White House driven, Johnson Thune driven health care plan that would extend the subsidies and could pass both chambers. There's just no such thing. But there doesn't seem to even be a plan that can pass the House with Republican votes because there's no agreement there. You've got a pretty big group of moderate and endangered Republicans who want a subsidy extension and then you got some conservatives who don't want a subsidy extension. And the White House hasn't weighed in. Here's John Barrasso. Number he's number two Republican right in the Senate, not number three. He's number two. Here's John Barrasso of Wyoming on Fox and Friends. And this is a perfect encapsulation of the Republican position on health care, which is the Democrats are horrible, Obamacare is horrible, but we have no ideas. John Barrasso 106 please, I want to put patients in charge, Brian. The Democrats are coming to the Senate today to do another bailout of Obamacare. And I'm a doctor. I want people to get the care that they need at an affordable price. But Obamacare robbed people of affordability as well as choice. And if the Democrats get their way, they will send another $83 billion directly from the federal government to health insurance companies, which, you know, what do we, what have we seen with these things? That just raises prices even further. We need to send money to patients, empower them to make the decisions that what works best for them, make the insurance companies compete for those dollars, give people more choices rather than this one size fits all straight jacket. That's Obamacare. So, so again, they have ideas. They just don't have consensus. Here's the, here's the Wall Street Journal headline 107. Again, there are a bunch of House Republicans who are breaking away from the leaders. It says some Republicans break with leaders on saving aca subsidies, GOP lawmakers across the pinnacle, across the political spectrum, open to short term extension of enhanced tax credits. And then 108, please, there's, there's a boot, there's still some embers, there's still some green shoots, whatever metaphor you want to use. There is some effort to try to find something to extend the subsidies maybe for a month. And I don't rule that out. Here's here's news. This is from X. Here's a slide of health care options House GOP leadership is putting under consideration. Republicans are still discussing options. Note that extending Obamacare subsidies is not listed. So even though the leadership listed a bunch of ideas and you heard Senator list some of them there, there's no consensus on an alternative plan and there's certainly no great desire on the part of either the president who poured some more cold water on it yesterday, or the speaker to extend. So Larry, first question briefly, is there going to be a deal before the subsidies expire or this is a January project.

[Larry O'Connor]

I think there's going to be an emergency ripcord deal just to again sort of extend it a little, as you said, for a couple of months here because there's a short term, midterm and long term problem here which we can get into. But the short term problem is the squeeze that they're about to have that led to the last shutdown with the subsidies running out. And I think there will be a short term solution for that. And then we can get into some of the more details if you want, in a moment. And what there does seem to be a growing consensus among Republicans around.

[Mark Halperin]

Well, so you think there'll be an extension of the subsidies? They'll be for like a few months, yes. Kevin, do you agree with that?

[Kevin]

I mean it's got to be at least for a year, right? In terms of how the marketplace works in terms of these premiums, I think the pressure is going to ratchet up. People have already seen their premium bills come out for the next year. That's only going to mount. The interesting thing is the dynamic that's going on in the House where it's now ruled by discharge petition. With such a slim majority, so many of these discharge petitions are making their way. There's this effort by gottheimer Mark that you kind of referenced in terms of the centrist folks coming together with a one year extension. You got, you know, Crapo and Cassidy with their bill on the Senate side. We're going to put four Democrats are going to put forward a three year Extension under Schumer. That was part of the deal with, I think, sorry, J.D. vance is flying over the House right now because I live right by the Naval Observatory.

[Larry O'Connor]

J.D. vance can fly.

[Mark Halperin]

He's like Superman, but he's very loud. He's like an mri.

[Kevin]

Like Peter Pan. Exactly. So but none of these, none of these bills are going to get the 60 vote threshold in the Senate today. So they're going to fail and we'll see how the process plays out.

[Mark Halperin]

But is this emergency plan that Larry says is going to happen? I think might. Is it going to get a lot of Democratic votes in the House? I mean, I mean, you know, we can't say. In other words, in other words, are they going to craft a short term thing that has bipartisan support? If it's because it won't be clean, it can't be clean. Right. The speaker is not going to bring something clean. I don't know, will he? Would the speaker extend this?

[Larry O'Connor]

No, he's. Well, Republicans are intent on adding some.

[Mark Halperin]

Anti fraud provisions even for, even for like a two month extension that you think they would demand that?

[Larry O'Connor]

I think they might, yeah.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[Larry O'Connor]

That's the only way they can get it passed. The conservatives who don't want any extensions.

[Mark Halperin]

I do. Yeah, they will. All right. On the economy, Politico has a story saying Republicans have given up on Trump having any discipline and Trump, they just don't think Trump's ever gonna be the one who says things that we know. I feel your pain. Things are bad. So it's like Trump's gonna be the guy who says everything's great, it's gonna get better. J.D. vance is going to Pennsylvania next week. Fascinating, right? The vice president going to the same state the president went to to talk about the economy. And it's not like there's a presidential election coming up. So interesting choice. And so the thought is, well, maybe J.D. vance and maybe some of these other surrogates, Scott Bessant, they can be the ones who feel the pain and kind of a good cop, better cop situation. Here's one of the many potential spokespeople who talks about the economy for the administration. This is Howard Lutnick on Fox and Friends talking about interest rates. 111.

I think the United States of America still has the highest rates of any amazing country with the greatest credit. Think about it. We are the greatest country with the.

[Professor Kenney]

Greatest credit and we pay the most for our bonds.

[Mark Halperin]

It just doesn't make any sense. Interest rates in America should be much lower. The cost of housing should be much lower. President Trump understands it and that is absolutely correct. President likes his friend Howard for a number of reasons, including he's a glass 3/4 full guy. And here's another guy who's got glass a 5, 8 full. Stephen Moore, Larry brought this to our attention. The economist often gives advice to the administration publicly and privately on the economy. And he's Larry explained this very confusing chart that's up on the screen. For those of you watching listening on.

[Larry O'Connor]

The podcast version, I don't think it's that confusing. It shows what the grocery prices have been since 2017 when Trump took over. And you can see in the red line, that's where grocery prices were under the Trump administration. Then you see where grocery prices went during the Biden administration. And now as inflation has somewhat stabilized, although there was a slight tick up in the late spring, early summer, as things start to get under control. It's not like we're going to have the prices immediately plummet down to the Trump era. If people are angry about prices right now, it's because we're still cleaning up from the unruly and unwarranted rampant spending and out of control policies of the Biden administration. You don't put that genie back in the bottle in just six months.

[Mark Halperin]

Right? All right, Kevin. It's a little bit complicated. Maybe I'll sum it up the articulateness to explain, to explain my theory. If, if we've all seen in an election year, in a midterm year, the panic and the division that comes, if the president's poll numbers are bad, if consumers are unhappy, voters are unhappy, we all know that at some point the NRCC and the other political arms say we got to separate from the president, we can't, we got to distance ourselves, we don't want to campaign with him, et cetera. It seems to me that we don't know, we don't know what the economy is going to be like next year. We don't know what people, what consumers will think about the economy. The president's right. There's a gap between how people feel about the economy and what's going on in some areas, not in all, but in some. Right. So I think that if they really do this, if they basically say to themselves and to the, the Hill, the president's never going to say things are not great, so just accept that. But we've got other people who will go out and say things can be better. Is that a way to preemptively head off the dynamic because the press will write the story every day between now and the midterms, Trump's saying how great everything is. Now we're going to talk to voters who don't think it is. Just make the lemonade out of this situation. Does that make sense?

[Kevin]

It does, but I think it's got to come from the President.

[Mark Halperin]

Right.

[Kevin]

And he just has to look at the last four years of the Biden administration again. This was the guy that tried to sell Bidenomics, you know, to conservative audiences for four years and people weren't buying it because to your point and to Larry's point, it's how people feel. Right? Necessarily. Not the statistics, not the GDP, we're leading the G7, all this kind of stuff that we talked about during the Biden years. It's actually what people feel, you know, and half Americans right now in polls say that this is the worst economic situation that they felt, including 37% of Americans that voted for Donald Trump just a year ago. So he's got to acknowledge that it can't be Scott Besson. He's great out there. No tax on tips and stuff like that. It can't be J.D. vance. It's got to be the president to some degree. And it's this delicate dance that the president can maneuver and he's a great messenger. Right. He can still champion the power of the US Economy, all these foreign investments and all that kind of thing.

[Mark Halperin]

Kevin, that's my point. Is it? You're saying it has to be the president. What if the president's just the champion of optimism and these other people fill that in? Larry, is that workable?

[Larry O'Connor]

I think it is. And I think that there's a template for this. If people go back to the first couple of years of the Reagan presidency, Reagan was always optimistic, too, even when we were in the middle of a recession. But he was optimistic with a velvet glove and Trump is optimistic with a ball peen hammer, I guess, if there's.

[Mark Halperin]

Appropriate or Don Rickles insults to the press.

[Larry O'Connor]

Yeah. And so Trump is going to do it the way he does. I'm thrilled that Republicans, after 10 years in Washington, D.C. have given up on trying to change who Donald Trump is. What took you so long? But I think it would be a slight pivot for Donald Trump, the president, if I can be so bold, to just say, listen, we've gotten a lot accomplished, we've done a lot. But the fact of the matter is the giant aircraft carrier that is the American economy does not make a U turn on a dime. And by the time most Americans start To feel the results of the great things we've done. He won't be lagged. You're going to feel it. Trust me on this. I did it before, I can do it again.

[Mark Halperin]

But he won't even say that. He won't even say no. But I think he'll say we've. He'll say we've turned the.

This is a pre. Can sound bite. But I'm going to try to deliver it as if it just occurred to me. Here's what just occurred to me. You can't teach an old dog new tricks, especially if the old dog loves the old tricks. Trump loves his old tricks. He's not interested in learning new tricks. It's not like he can't. He loves the old tricks. All right, I think you're onto something.

[Larry O'Connor]

With the team sort of doing that part of the messaging forum.

[Kevin]

Sorry, I will say that.

[Mark Halperin]

Well, I'm not onto it. They are.

[Larry O'Connor]

I'm only.

[Mark Halperin]

I'm only.

[Kevin]

I will say, though, that the president, you know, every TV ad that we're gonna put in the midterms is him in the Oval Office saying affordability is a scam. Right. So you can be optimistic, but you gotta acknowledge what people are feeling. And he can't call it out saying, you know, it's a democratic hoax or anything like that. That's the only caveat.

[Mark Halperin]

That's one of the old. It's one of the old tricks he loves is to say it's one of the old tricks he loves. When he says affordability is a scam, I believe what he means is lots of prices are down and this problem was not caused by him. He means.

[Larry O'Connor]

He means something else perpetuated. I think he means something else about that. If I may put yourself in his position for a moment.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[Larry O'Connor]

Where, where, where? When he ran on the fact that things were too expensive and inflation and he felt personally that Biden had ruined a pretty good economy that he had seen set up. And while he was running and doing that last year, he was told by the experts and by all the talking heads on cable news. Well, actually, the economy is quite strong right now, and that's maddening. Suddenly then, after three months, he's in office. You've got Zoran Mamdani lighting up the world by saying that we have an affordability problem in New York. Well, who caused the affordability problem? Trump was talking about it. Everyone pooh, poohed it. Zora Mamdani starts to put TikTok videos together about it, and suddenly he's brilliant. And then. Yeah, that's gonna stick.

[Mark Halperin]

That's sort of what I meant.

[Kevin]

But now they're best friends. Noble often.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. All right, let's talk about redistricting. And again, Larry's getting a credit, producer credit because he found this great element as well. This is a great breakdown of where we stand on redistricting. Indiana legislators going to vote today on whether they're, whether they're going to redistrict to eliminate two Democratic held seats in the state. This was thought to be dead, but it's been revived and it may pass. We'll know, we'll know later today. So here's the chart. Again, it's a little small. And those of you listening on the podcast are going to need my help here. Here's where things stand. And this is not, this is, this is not with the potential that the Supreme Court will overturn the Voting Rights act. That would provide even more opportunities for Republicans. The conventional wisdom was Republicans are pulling a fast one and they're going to change a lot of these things and they're going to win a lot of states. Then the conventional wisdom shift, particularly after California, to say this is all backfiring on the Republicans and in fact, Democrats are going to be even or come out ahead. So here's where it stands. You can see the state by state, but confirmed gains right now, Republicans plus 11, Democrats plus 6. So that's a net 5 for the Republicans pending gains, Republicans plus 10, Democrats plus 3. So the potential would be if it all goes, if all of them pass, Republicans 21, Democrats 9. So things are pretty good for Republicans. And again, that's without the Voting Rights act changes. Kevin Gavin Newsom gets a lot of credit for California. But, and as we all know, the reason for this is Democrats already redistricted the hell out of the blue states. So they didn't have as many opportunities to do this. But if it goes that way and even where we are now, this gives the Republicans, I would say, a significantly better chance to keep the majority than if Republicans hadn't tried this. Saying that James Blair and the other people who did this for the President, it seems like it was a smart thing to do just in terms of hard nosed politics. Correct.

[Kevin]

Sure. And we will certainly see. You know, you saw a Trump +22 district in Tennessee, seven go from 22 to nine. Right. And special elections are special for a reason. You know, my, my, you know, you look at the Texas redistrict, you know, they created a lot of R + 6, R + 8 districts based on the Hispanic vote based on, you know, the president's high numbers in 2024 where he actually won the popular vote. And then you see these coalitions as part of that, you know, those demographics abandoning the president in recent polling. So, you know, you've diluted some of these districts to make it work for Republicans. And it might be the case where they're actually more competitive if they're R +8 to R +10 based on what we've seen in these special elections and where the president's numbers are and where the country is feeling right now.

[Mark Halperin]

Larry, I hate to sound like John McLaughlin, but quickly, quickly.

[Larry O'Connor]

Kevin's right about that. All those so called Republican seats in Texas don't count those chickens before they hatch. But the dirty secret is, as you pointed out, Mark, most of the Democrat seats have already been gerrymandered up the wazoo where there's nothing more they can do. It looks like when all is said and done, Republicans will in fact have some net gains here that should work in their favor. And at that point we can then start making our guesses of what the midterms are going to be like. But we don't know what the playing field is yet. We still don't.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, really quick on this one because we got three or four more things I want to get to. And please raise your hand if you want to be in the conversation. A judge yesterday ruled on the Epstein files. Not the files. The grand jury transcripts and other material can be released.

In the New York Times judge request on seal absentee jury records. There's already stories coming out. There's a new Bloomberg story about Jeffrey Epstein and emails and his connections to various people. Just a short answer from each of you, Kevin. Will we be seeing release and big headlines over the holiday season from this stuff or is it even despite the congressional deadline, Will this be pushed into next year? Yes or no? Will we see big Epstein revelations in December?

[Kevin]

I don't think so. I mean, I think part of this ruling is really just what the DOJ was thinking in terms of their indictment in 2019 against Jeffrey Epstein. I don't think there's going to be any new, real new information that we get out of this.

[Mark Halperin]

Larry, yes or no? December revelations?

[Larry O'Connor]

Yes. And I don't think it's going to be good for Democrats. I'm still astonished that they pushed this thing.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. All right. Erica Kirk was on Fox yesterday, did a very Weiss interview. There's so much MAGA on MAGA criticism now. Tucker's at war with everybody. And there's accusations of personal accusations. The whole thing is a mess. But one of the most intense ones involves.

Candace Owens. And she has been on just this, this. This rampage since Charlie was killed with various conspiracy theories. And a lot of people in Charlie's world's attitude was, we're not going to take her on directly. She's way too combustible. We'll just ignore it and her audience will hear it, but it won't go wider. But they've decided as a group next week, they're going to do a whole episode of Charlie's show debunking all these accusations she's made, these crazy conspiracy theories that have no substance. And in the view of Team Charlie, this is all just an attempt to get ratings. And her anger over having been pushed away from Turning Point yesterday, Erica, in an interview, did not name Candace Owens, but everybody knows that's what she's talking about. Here she is on Fox yesterday.

[Erica Kirk]

Come after me. Call me names. I don't care. Call me what you want. Go down that rabbit hole, whatever. But when you go after my family, my Turning Point, USA family, my Charlie Kirk show family, when you go after the people that I love, and you're making hundreds and thousands of dollars every single episode, going after the people that I love because somehow they're in on this. No.

[Mark Halperin]

You know, I have to say it. I've never seen you like this.

[Erica Kirk]

No, I'm. I'm. This is righteous anger because this is not okay. It's not healthy. This is a mind virus. Yes, I believe in our judicial system. I do. We have a hell of a team working on this. Excuse my French, but this is not okay.

[Mark Halperin]

Kevin, is this going to escalate? In other words, is there going to be a bigger, broader public fight with Candace Owens that might have some implications for her standing or. This is as hot as it's going to get.

[Kevin]

I think it's just going to continue to build. Right? There's a lot more questions than answers about the assassination. Right? And you have all these folks that have trafficked in conspiracy theories and built their livelihoods on conspiracy theories. Some of them are now running our Justice Department. But this is going to continue on, and they're going to be. And it's. And it's good for both sides to some degree, because a lot of the profit mentality is around sensationalism, right? And views and clicks and engagement. And, you know, this just fuels Candace's, you know, rise and, you know, her reach.

[Mark Halperin]

Does it, Larry? Is this good for Candace's business model to have this fight.

[Larry O'Connor]

I mean, I suppose so. You know, there are certain media personalities, I think you'd agree, Mark, that do better within the conflict of a more strict broadcast guidance from either corporation or from the FCC or what have you. And she's in the wild, wild west now. And, yeah, I mean, she lives and dies by each episode's downloads and this kind of thing, there's always an audience for it. So sure, she's gonna profit from it, I suppose. It's just sad. It's lamentable. I thought Erica Kerr came across brilliantly. It reminds me, frankly, when my mentor and friend Andrew Breitbart died suddenly at a young age. Not assassinated, but the conspiracy theories began immediately that he had been murdered, and I remember, by the Obama administration, targeted by the CIA. It's still out there. In fact, me saying this right now. I promise you, in the comments section, or I'll get it hit on Twitter by saying that, yes, Andrew Breitbart was murdered. And I remember Susie, his widow, and his children. His oldest, Samson was 12, same age as my oldest at the time. It was devastating for them. Imagine what it's like when you're a kid and you see things on the Internet that your father was murdered by the president. It's awful, and it breaks my heart. And Candace should go to hell.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[Kevin]

All right, agreed. You got bipartisan agreement on that?

[Mark Halperin]

I think. I think next week's going to be a really big deal. I thought they were doing the episode on Monday that I think I heard.

[Larry O'Connor]

The 15th is when TP USA is doing it.

[Mark Halperin]

15Th? Is that Monday or Tuesday?

[Larry O'Connor]

I don't know. No, tomorrow's the 12th. Monday, Monday.

[Mark Halperin]

I think it might have been moved to Tuesday, but in any event, by the way.

[Larry O'Connor]

And real fat, her influence. Tucker still has a lot of influence. Influence in mega world. I don't know how much influence she has.

[Mark Halperin]

Well, she has influence with her audience. She's a massive.

[Larry O'Connor]

With her audience. Yeah, but I wouldn't call it a MAGA audience.

[Mark Halperin]

I. I'll say again. I say again, if you've never done it, invest the time to listen to a full episode of Candace's show. Doesn't matter which episode. But you really need to understand. I say the same thing about Nick Fuentes. You really need to understand what goes on on that show, because whatever you think about it, it's. It's wilder than you think. Unless. Invest.

[Larry O'Connor]

And by the way, she's a brilliant community communicator.

[Kevin]

She is.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. She's pretty Good.

[Kevin]

She comes off somewhat sympathetic, too. And so you know, a lot of her.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah. I wanted to go in depth on the president and cnn, but we don't have time. So real quick, Kevin, will, will Netflix be able to complete this purchase, yes or no?

[Kevin]

Yes, I believe yes.

[Mark Halperin]

Larry?

[Larry O'Connor]

Oh, I don't think so.

[Mark Halperin]

Actually, the pr, they, they can't buy cnn and Jared Kushner's on the other side. I still think Paramount's gonna win this. All right, quick word from a sponsor and then to your questions again. If you want here, I want to get in on the conversation, please raise your hand. We'd love some folks who've never asked a question before, please. Do you need some comfortable clothes? Yes, you do. You need some affordable clothes? Yes, you do. You need to be taking advantage of the extraordinary opportunity afforded to members of the two way community by going on ponchooutdoors.com 2wmm for free shipping, $10 off your first order of extraordinary clothes. Comfortable enough, sharp enough, well fitting enough for Hogan Gidley denim jeans, flannels, everything from the folks Western polos. It all comes with free shipping, free returns, free exchanges to make sure you get it right. These clothes right out of the package are soft and comfortable and they fit great. And if you happen to miss size it, you send it back, they send you a new one. They stand by every shirt. They want to make sure it's right.

[Larry O'Connor]

It looks like we're in charge. KEVIN.

[Kevin]

Oh, Larry, Larry.

[Larry O'Connor]

Mark. I'm the captain now.

[Kevin]

We lost Mark for a second.

[Mark Halperin]

You lost me for just a second.

[Kevin]

There he is.

[Mark Halperin]

Panchooutdoors.com 2WMpanchooutdoors.com 2WMM all right, here we go, ladies and gentlemen, come on in. Tell us after you unmute where you are, what's on your mind for Larry and Kevin, guest co host and if I freeze again, host the show. Turner, welcome. Tell everybody where you are, what's on your mind. I am in Chattanooga, Tennessee. So I just wanted to highlight first off, like this is just a comment and then I had two questions, if that's okay.

So the MRI thing that we've talked about a couple of times, there is emerging technology or merging the use of MRIs for screening care like of pancreatic cancer and stuff like that. So that's Turner, 100%. But also, as I've said, he's the president, people shouldn't be judging. If I were the president, I'd say, yeah, let's, given my age, given that I eat McDonald's, every day. Let's. Let's check it out. So I agree with you, that thing. I'm a hawk regarding transparency on presidential medical background, and I'd like them to disclose more. I'd like to see the results. But in terms of whether people should be suspicious that he had it, I agree with you. It's ridiculous. Exactly. That's my only point, Sir. Question.

[Larry O'Connor]

I was wondering if you guys saw.

[Mark Halperin]

On Ezra Klein, Gavin saying, I want to see trans children and what you thought of that.

Did you guys see that? A bunch of people sent it to me.

[Larry O'Connor]

Can you, can you flesh that out a little? Turner, what do you mean he wants to see?

[Mark Halperin]

He was saying basically that he knows it's an unpopular policy position, but him personally, because he has a godson that's trans, he wants to see trans children. And I thought that was pretty politically toxic. And I can't believe you said it. Yeah, a bunch of people said it to me, I think. Well, Kevin, what do you think of. You're talking about Gavin Newsom? TURNER yes, yes. Sorry, did I not say that? Yeah, yeah, you did. But I'm not sure everybody caught it. KEVIN Gavin Newsom got a lot of attention when with Charlie Kirk. He. He said he basically didn't think trans athletes should be in, in girls and women's sports. But at the same time, he still doesn't want to deviate from the party completely on this issue. And the party still is more pro trans rights than some pollsters would tell them to be. What do you think of Gavin Newsom's dancing to dance on this?

[Kevin]

I mean, Turner, It's a great question. I mean, he's got to come off as authentic, right. People see through that stuff. People understand when it's a family member, you know, whether it's a trans kid or, you know, an alcoholic mom or, you know, a father that just lost a job. So as long as it's authentic, right. And I think Gavin oftentimes struggles with that, it's going to come off as a little vapid, but it's a delicate dance for Democrats, certainly. Yeah. Larry.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[Larry O'Connor]

The problem is that in states like California and in other states that are very blue, that sentiment then translates into policies. And if a parent does not want to go along with the transition of their child, they should have the right to determine their child's future, not the state. And in California right now, parents don't have that right. That's where the rubber is going to hit the road. You may have your own personal feelings about the trans issue. It Gets a little dicey when it comes to children. Obviously, adults should be able to, I guess, live the life they want to live. But when parents have their parental rights threatened by the state, as they are in California, and potentially the state can take your child away from you. If you don't want to go along with a gender transition, that ain't gonna make it on a national stage, you know.

[Mark Halperin]

Today's episode of NextUp. I'm doing my first edition of 8 for 28 the top most likely Democratic nominees, in order. I've already said this publicly, so I'll say it here again. Newsom is number one and all. I'll say. I'll say. And I'll say it on Next up, too. They're no perfect candidates if you're trying to make a rational judgment about who the most likely nominees are. If you start by saying, well, Gavin Newsom's got this complexity on trans issues, sure. Gavin Newsom's the state of California has a bunch of problems, sure. But he's still the most likely because there's no one perfect running. So I agree with you, Turner. It's an interesting thing. He's a pretty sophisticated guy, but it's a complicated issue. When you, when you, when your party's position and the most active and loud people in the party have a position that's not popular with the majority of the voters, you got a problem. And you got to be a good politician to figure that out.

[Kevin]

And he's a good politician.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[Larry O'Connor]

For 28 to get the nomination or just the nomination? Yes.

[Kevin]

No.

[Larry O'Connor]

I have no doubt he does need to say that to get the nomination. The problem is, in a general election, a Democrat candidate has to answer three very important questions. Number one, can a man get pregnant? Number two, will you go back to Biden's policies on the border? And number three, will you tear down the new ballroom at the White House?

[Mark Halperin]

The answers are no to all three.

[Larry O'Connor]

For Gavin.

[Mark Halperin]

For everybody. Turner, thank you. It should be anyway. Turner, thank you, man. Grateful to you. Thanks for being part of two way. Professor Kenney, welcome in. Thank you for being here. No need to. No need to say where you are. Brooklyn, usa America. Unmute. There you go. Professor, how are you?

[Larry O'Connor]

Thank you.

[Professor Kenney]

So my question is for Larry. How are you, Larry?

[Larry O'Connor]

I'm good to see you.

[Kevin]

Good.

[Professor Kenney]

Good to see you. I'm really concerned about the messaging on the Republican side. The polls are terrible right now, and I'm wondering if there's any way Trump can figure, like, somebody can get through to Trump and say Just like you explained it. Don't, don't, don't. You can say hoax, you know, about affordability, but then explain it that, you know, it's Biden left it to you and you, you know, Biden left me this mess. I got to clean it up. That's what the hoax is. He doesn't say that. He just says it's a hoax.

[Larry O'Connor]

Well, he has started to say it, to tell you the truth, Professor, And I think.

[Mark Halperin]

But not as. But not as well as you, Larry.

[Larry O'Connor]

Not well.

[Professor Kenney]

Right, Exactly.

[Larry O'Connor]

But. And it's also, frankly, you got to.

[Kevin]

Get Larry out on the trail.

[Larry O'Connor]

It's not gonna. No, God forbid. No, no, no. I don't run for anything. It's not gonna stop Kevin's pals from doing exactly what Kevin said they were going to do, which is to just take the one soundbite. It doesn't matter if he says other things. The real question is, is the 2026 midterm, Professor Kenny, gonna be a referendum on Trump regardless, no matter what? Because you just said this is a Republican messaging problem. Okay, then it's up to the Republicans who are running in the midterms to be able to have their own message and not just rely on. On whatever Trump says or does. That's gonna be real hard because everything revolves around Trump right now. But they're gonna have to figure that out the way Abigail Spamberger figured it out in Virginia, where she sort of separated herself from the national ticket and from Biden. Kamala, I think it was disingenuous, but it worked.

[Professor Kenney]

And that's what 100% the reality is. Without Trump's shirttails or coattails.

What are the Republicans actually standing for now? You know what? Like, what is their message?

[Mark Halperin]

Professor, pause for you saying throw up, Fox, because John Thune's on. Let's see what he's saying about healthcare. Finish up, Professor. Sorry to interrupt. Go ahead.

[Professor Kenney]

That's okay. Just want to say I look forward to tomorrow. If you could promote that, I would love it.

[Mark Halperin]

Tell people what you mean, and then we'll jump over.

[Larry O'Connor]

Okay.

[Professor Kenney]

So for the community, I'm pretty sure most of you know we run a post show after the morning meeting, and we also have one at night that Alan Chernisky runs after Mark show. So tomorrow on the post show, my guest will be Mark Halperin. And I'd like everybody to come on.

[Mark Halperin]

Tell everybody if they want to join, how they can.

[Professor Kenney]

Yeah, I put the links in the chat, and I also chat everybody privately. So it'll be a zoom only. So it's in the chat if you want to join and then we can stay in touch through email and stuff like that. So thanks a lot, Mark.

[Kevin]

I appreciate it.

[Mark Halperin]

Thank you, Professor. Looking forward to, looking forward to visiting with everybody tomorrow after the show, let's hear what John Thune is saying. Thank you. Professors were fraudulent.

[John Thune]

They got through because the insurance company signed them up. This is a program that is completely untenable for the future, continues to drive premiums up. So your answer about what are we doing to drive premiums down? The bill we're going to put on the floor today actually does, according to the Congressional Budget Office, reduce premiums by double digits for people in this country who are in the individual marketplace. Now, insurance rates are going up in the group marketplace, too, the employer marketplace, which is where about 150 million million people in this country get their insurance. But they're going up at half the rate that they are in the Obamacare exchanges. So, yes, insurance rates, health insurance rates have been going up.

[Erica Kirk]

I see.

[John Thune]

But the place they're going up the fastest is in the program created by Chuck Schumer and the Democrats.

[Erica Kirk]

Earlier today, President Trump said he had a chance to be with you and he talked about this. He said, I am hereby asking Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a fantastic guy, to get something done, ideally the termination of blue slips. Too many great Republicans are being sent pack and none are allows Democrats to.

[Mark Halperin]

Veto Trump judges president if they're from their states.

[Erica Kirk]

Can you explain to people just real quickly what a blue slip is? And are you going to do something that will deal with his concerns?

[Larry O'Connor]

Won't be as well.

[John Thune]

This is something that applies just to district court judges and U.S. attorneys. And it allows individuals, the senators from those states to be able to sign off on the people who are nominated to those positions. That doesn't apply to circuit court judges, obviously doesn't apply to Supreme Court judges. And we have moved his nominees through the process at a record rate. We will by the end of this year have a record number of his nominees approved to the executive branch, got his cabinet confirmed at the fastest rate possible. We'll continue to work on the judiciary, Dana, but this is a procedure that's been in place for a long time that both Republicans and Democrats support because it gives them something, particularly in those judges, the judicial appointments that are made in their individual states, some input.

[Erica Kirk]

So you don't anticipate changing it?

[John Thune]

I don't think it's going to change. It's been in place for a long time There are Republicans on the Judiciary.

[Mark Halperin]

Committee and off the Judiciary Committee slips.

[John Thune]

For that matter who support this.

[Mark Halperin]

And support are too important to the House of Lords.

[Erica Kirk]

All right, Senator John Thune, thank you.

[Mark Halperin]

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[Larry O'Connor]

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[Kevin]

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[Mark Halperin]

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[Kevin]

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[Kevin]

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[Mark Halperin]

Brennan, welcome in. Thanks for being part of two way. What's on your mind For Kevin and for Larry. Happy holidays. Merry Christmas.

[Erica Kirk]

Thank you. Happy holidays. Thanks for calling on me. Yes, sir, I had an observation about the economy and then a response to two of your questions. Mark.

[Mark Halperin]

Yes, sir.

[Erica Kirk]

So first on the economy, I feel like this uneasiness that people feel will continue no matter who is, who's in charge because we operate on a fiat system and the inflation rate will outpace people's wages. So people will always feel unsettled. Any thoughts on that before I continue?

[Mark Halperin]

Great question, Kevin. Then Larry.

[Kevin]

Yeah, Bregman, I think it's a great point. It's that I go back to, you know, Barack Obama got elected obviously as kind of an outsider candidate. You know, 12 million Americans that voted for Barack Obama then voted for Donald Trump as an outsider candidate, talking about the fact that real wages have not increased in this country in decades, and talked about that economic pain.

[Mark Halperin]

Right.

[Kevin]

And both were seen as outsiders that would take on the system. Because that feeling is out there that a lot of Americans feel.

[Larry O'Connor]

Yeah. I mean, this is a talking point for politicians for decades now, that there's always going to be a certain percentage of the American workforce that feels that squeeze. And sometimes, sadly, our economy has less leg room than a Fiat. If I can tie.

[Mark Halperin]

It's like Andre the Giant in a fiat. There you go. Brendan, did you have a second one?

[Erica Kirk]

Yeah. Well, you had asked why Americans should care about the World cup, and I have an answer.

[Mark Halperin]

Oh, no, I didn't ask. I know why they should care.

[Larry O'Connor]

I may have asked that.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, Larry probably did.

[Larry O'Connor]

Fair.

[Mark Halperin]

Okay, tell us what your thoughts are.

[Erica Kirk]

First, everyone likes the professional skill of professional football players, but they like the atmosphere of college football, and professional soccer is. Atmosphere of College football times 100. It's kind of crazy.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah.

[Erica Kirk]

And then just as a basic thing, there are no commercials. It's 45 minutes of play. No commercials, which is tough to get used to as an American.

[Mark Halperin]

Brandon, we'll put you on the marketing committee. We'll get you in touch with Andrew Giuliani. Those are great points, and I'm looking forward to it.

[Larry O'Connor]

Even many people combined with all the drinking that goes on, how do you square those two? I mean, my luck. I'll go to the john right when they finally score a goal.

[Mark Halperin]

John, John, do you have the John? Larry, you just bring a. You just bring a. Like a empty beer can with you, and you go right there under the blanket. It's a pro tip. That's classy, Brennan. Thank you.

[Larry O'Connor]

Can we get a sponsorship on that? Exactly.

[Kevin]

Yeah.

[Larry O'Connor]

That's.

[Kevin]

That sounds like a tool for the holidays right there.

[Mark Halperin]

Brennan, very grateful to you for being part of two way. Thank you, sir.

[Erica Kirk]

Thank you.

[Mark Halperin]

All right.

[Kevin]

As long as we keep calling it American football. You know, I didn't support the first two impeachments, but that could be a third impeachment.

[Larry O'Connor]

Again, bipartisan ingredient agreement on that.

[Kevin]

I was like, what the heck are you.

[Larry O'Connor]

When Trump said, we got to stop calling it football, I'm ready to impeach his orange ass.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, that was. That was unfortunate. I was. You know, I'm always ready for some real football, but. But again, this is our opportunity to join the community of nations and love the game everyone else loves the day later. Did a beautiful game later today on two way, 4:00 Eastern Time. The group chat's back. Emma Jo Morris, Nina Turner, Robbie Swabi, joined today by guest co host Don Calloway, Democratic strategist, CEO and founder of Pine Street Advisors. Kevin, you know Don.

[Kevin]

I don't know Don, but I love the group chat.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, group chat today, 4 o' clock Eastern Time. Watch it live, participate, ask some questions. And I saw Emma Jo this week. She's in a feisty mood. Hopefully that'll carry over to the show today. And then I'll be back at 6 tonight with what we call two way tonight. And I suspect we'll talk a lot about Caroline Levitt and I suspect there'll be some developments in a bunch of stuff. And I'll show you my 8 for 28 tonight and we'll talk about it. Take your questions and let you rip it apart because I had some people on the bubble. The way I do it on NextUp is I do my own list. I look around, I talk to some folks and then I take that list and it's in order, most likely the least like the top eight and they send it to some folks. And I'll just tell you the final bubble. The final bubble question was should Rahm Emanuel be on the list or Governor Pritzker? I had a slot for one Illinoisan Rahm Emanuel or Governor Pritzker. Kevin, who would you put on if they fill one of the eight slots with if you had, if you had one slot for Pritzker or Rom, who would you.

[Kevin]

I'm with the billionaire man. He can fund his own campaign. Rambo's out there. He's missing fingers, you know. Yeah, I'm with Pritzker on this one.

[Mark Halperin]

And again, this is just for the nomination, Larry. Larry, who would you give that slot to, Rom or Pritzker for the nomination?

[Larry O'Connor]

I think Rahm has a better job of winning the Iowa caucuses than J.B. pritzker. I don't see how J.B. pritzker, despite the money, translates to other states. I don't get it.

[Mark Halperin]

Yeah, this was just so difficult for me because you guys are representative of the folks I asked. No offense, Larry. I trust Democrats more than Republicans.

[Larry O'Connor]

As well you should.

[Mark Halperin]

But, but, but tune in not only to see, I told you, Gavin's number one, but tune in to see who fills the other seven slots, including is it Pritzker Oram. I've already made my decision.

[Larry O'Connor]

But.

From the Republican, from my perspective, I fear Rahm more than I Rahm's.

[Mark Halperin]

More popular with Republicans and Democrats. Kevin, what was your question? Do I do all eight?

[Kevin]

So you're going to release all eight on the show.

[Mark Halperin]

Next up, release later today. I'm recording it release data today. And it'll be on my socials too. One through eight, most likely. And wait to hear my seven caveats. The throat clearing I have to do before this list comes out so people don't misunderstand it, including we don't know what the schedule is for the, for the primaries and caucuses. How can you say who's going to win the nomination when historically that determines it above all else, we got to see who's going to be good in those states. So I'll do all my caveats, then I'll do the list later today. And then also on this episode, my interview with the Governor of Arkansas, 47th Governor of Arkansas, Sarah Huckabee Sanders. You won't want to miss it. So that'll drop later today. And again, I'll see you at six o'. Clock. And tomorrow either. You coming back tomorrow?

[Kevin]

I'll be back tomorrow. I was just gonna say I'm gonna get Sarah Huckabee Sanders in trouble because she's actually a dear friend and I.

[Mark Halperin]

Think the world of her. So she's a great person. You're both back tomorrow.

[Larry O'Connor]

You're stuck.

[Kevin]

We are.

[Mark Halperin]

All right, awesome. Well, gentlemen, thank you for being here. We'll see you in 23 hours. We'll see all of you in 23 hours. Thank you for being part of the two way community. And, and then right after tomorrow's show, I'll be joining the professor, Marianne Gilligan. Now, just the professor and the two way community for a chat. I'm looking forward to that, too. Have a great day, everybody. See you at 16.