The Morning Meeting – December 11, 2025

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode of "The Morning Meeting" (hosted by Mark Halperin with guest hosts Larry O'Connor and Kevin) delivers a "newsroom war room" style briefing on the most urgent stories in U.S. and global politics. The focus alternates between a dramatic military action involving Venezuela, polling on President Trump’s performance, Congressional dysfunction over health insurance subsidies, redistricting battles, and the escalating fallout from conspiratorial infighting on the American right. The show also takes listener questions and weighs the leading Democratic contenders for the 2028 presidential nomination.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

U.S. Seizes Oil Ship from Venezuela: "Pirates or Sanctions?"

• Mark Halperin opens with amazement at the U.S. Military’s seizure of a Venezuelan oil ship, describing it as a "pirate" move unprecedented in recent history ([06:16]).
  • Quote: “I don’t remember the United States military and other parts of the federal government being used as pirates to seize someone else's ship and to steal their oil.” — Mark Halperin [06:16]
• Larry O’Connor justifies aggressive enforcement of sanctions, citing Venezuela’s criminal regime and threat in the region ([07:05]).
• Following Maria Corina Machado’s Nobel Peace Prize and her harrowing escape, the hosts discuss political instability in Venezuela and U.S. strategy ([12:06]).
  • Quote: “Venezuela has turned into a... country in which the state applies terrorism. The regime... has applied state terrorism towards innocent people.” — Maria Corina Machado (via BBC, read by Erica Kirk) [12:06]
• Larry summarizes U.S. options: squeeze Maduro financially, force exile, or full military engagement, concluding ground troops are unlikely and Rubio’s “Monroe Doctrine” is back ([14:41]).
• Notable exchange: Kevin and Larry marvel at the historic, risky nature of the U.S. taking oil by force and debate the long-term fallout and effectiveness ([16:40]).

Ukraine-Russia Peace Plan: Skepticism on Quick Resolution

• Ukraine’s response to a U.S.-influenced peace plan is discussed, with both hosts doubting a holiday breakthrough ([18:15]).
  • Larry: “By Christmas, that's going to be tight… I’m more bullish than before but still skeptical.” [18:35]
  • Kevin: “We blew past the deadline for Thanksgiving. I don’t see it happening before Christmas.” [18:57]

Trump’s Polling Woes: Approval Lowest Yet

• Mark shares latest AP polling, finding Trump’s economic approval at 31% and his overall approval at 36%—a record low ([21:06]).
  • Quote: "If you dig into this AP poll, it’s horrible for the President. It’s horrible across the board." — Mark Halperin [21:06]
• Kevin: Trump is distracted by the international stage and needs to “hammer home” affordability at home ([22:02]).
• Larry: Trump should emphasize forthcoming benefits from the reconciliation package and not gaslight voters about their real financial pain ([23:00]).
  • Quote: “Don’t make it sound like people are out of their minds if they feel the squeeze right now.” — Larry O’Connor [23:00]

Health Care Subsidy Cliff: No Consensus, Chaos Looms

• The Republican Congress is deadlocked over expiring Obamacare (ACA) subsidies, with party split between endangered moderates (want an extension) and conservatives (opposed) ([24:00]).
• Larry expects a temporary “emergency ripcord deal”—a short extension—while deeper differences remain ([26:42]).
• Kevin argues any short fix will still need to be at least a year due to insurance market dynamics ([27:19]).
• The hosts agree whatever extension materializes will come with anti-fraud provisions to appease House conservatives ([28:44]).

Economy, Messaging, and Trump’s “Old Tricks”

• Politico reports Republicans have given up on getting discipline from Trump regarding messaging on the economy—he’ll stay “always up” while others do the empathetic messaging ([28:53]).
• Larry provides a Reagan comparison, noting Trump’s optimistic style is more blunt (“ball-peen hammer”) than Reagan’s velvet glove ([33:36]).
  • Quote: “Reagan was always optimistic, too—even when we were in the middle of a recession. But he was optimistic with a velvet glove and Trump is optimistic with a ball peen hammer.” — Larry O’Connor [33:36]
• Consensus: surrogates will address pain, but Trump won’t change; it’s up to others to supplement the message.
  • Quote: “You can’t teach an old dog new tricks, especially if the old dog loves the old tricks.” — Mark Halperin [34:43]

Redistricting Update: GOP Gains, But Risks Remain

• Indiana's redistricting could eliminate two Democratic seats, part of a national trend favoring Republicans ([37:27]).
• Mark notes GOP is set for net gains (+5 to +12) on current and pending maps—but cautions against overconfidence, especially in competitive Texas districts ([38:13]).
• Kevin: Demographics in newly redrawn districts might backfire on Republicans if coalitions shift ([38:13]).

Epstein Files: Will December Bring Bombshells?

• With judge ordering some Epstein grand jury records released, Mark asks if bombshell revelations will drop this month.
  • Kevin: “I don’t think so... I don’t think there’s going to be any new... information.” [40:13]
  • Larry: “Yes. And I don’t think it’s going to be good for Democrats.” [40:29]

MAGA Infighting and Conspiracy Theories: The Candace Owens/Charlie Kirk Saga

• Extended discussion of Candace Owens’ conspiracy attacks after Charlie Kirk’s death. Kirk’s camp plans a public rebuttal ([40:34]).
  • Erica Kirk (on Fox): “When you go after my family... my Charlie Kirk show family... and you're making hundreds and thousands of dollars every single episode, going after the people that I love... No.” [41:39]
• Larry draws parallels to conspiracy theories after Andrew Breitbart’s death, strongly condemns Owens' tactics ([43:17]).
  • Quote: “It breaks my heart. And Candace should go to hell.” — Larry O’Connor [44:28]

Listener Q&A Highlights

• Trans Issues in Dem Politics: Gavin Newsom’s position (“wants to see trans children thrive” due to family connection) is noted as risky for the general electorate; hosts agree it's a delicate balancing act for 2028 hopefuls ([49:12]).
• Republican Messaging: Audience pressed whether Trump can explain “affordability is a hoax” without alienating voters. Larry: Republicans down-ballot will need to develop their own messaging as 2026 may be all about Trump by default ([52:09]).
• Redistricting and Election Prospects: Discussion underscores how narrow congressional majorities and artificial districts create ongoing uncertainty for both parties.

2028 Democratic Hopefuls: Halperin’s "8 for 28"

• Mark previews his upcoming list of the top eight most likely Democratic presidential nominees, confirming Gavin Newsom as #1. The Pritzker vs. Rahm Emanuel choice for the “Illinois slot” divides regular and guest hosts:
  • Kevin: “I'm with the billionaire man. He can fund his own campaign. ...I'm with Pritzker on this one.” [63:06]
  • Larry: “I fear Rahm more... I think Rahm has a better job of winning Iowa...” [63:18]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On U.S. foreign adventurism:
  • “Isn’t it crazy that we seized the ship and took the oil? … I just don’t remember anything like this.” — Mark Halperin [17:09]
• On party divisions:
  • “They have ideas. They just don't have consensus.” — Mark Halperin (on GOP health care) [24:00]
• On Candace Owens:
  • “Candace should go to hell.” — Larry O’Connor [44:28]
• 2028 Dem nomination realities:
  • “There are no perfect candidates... But he's still the most likely because there's no one perfect running.” — Mark Halperin (on Gavin Newsom) [51:15]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• U.S. “pirates” Venezuela oil ship: [06:16]–[17:09]
• Machado on Venezuela repression: [12:06]
• Ukraine-Russia peace prospects: [18:15]–[19:42]
• AP poll: Trump’s faltering approval: [21:06]–[23:00]
• GOP health care deadlock: [24:00]–[28:53]
• Economy messaging dilemma: [28:53]–[34:43]
• Redistricting update: [37:27]–[39:29]
• Epstein files release?: [39:44]–[40:34]
• Owens vs. Kirk conspiracy showdown: [40:34]–[44:28]
• Q&A on Democratic positioning & 2028: [49:12]–[54:40]
• Who should get the “Illinois slot” for 2028: [63:06]–[64:33]

Tone & Takeaways

Spirited, irreverent, and deeply plugged-in—Mark Halperin, Larry O’Connor, and Kevin blend cutting analysis of live news, policy, and political tactics with an insiders’ candor rarely heard on mainstream cable. Listeners come away with a sense of the day’s true political divides and the underlying calculations that shape media coverage, policy debates, and the evolution of party leadership on both sides.

For further listening:

• Mark Halperin’s 8-for-28 segment on the 2028 Democratic field (releasing separately later that day, with more in-depth coverage of leading contenders and strategic vulnerabilities).
• Special: Erica Kirk and Turning Point USA’s response to Candace Owens’ conspiracy theories (scheduled for Dec 15).