The Morning Meeting – Feb 26, 2026

Episode: Will Trump Strike Iran This Weekend? Massive Show of American Force as Talks Continue

Host: Mark Halperin (2WAY), with Matt Gorman and Jaime Moore

Main Theme

This special episode of The Morning Meeting dives into the escalating situation in the Middle East—specifically, the potential for imminent U.S. or joint U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran. The conversation brings fresh reporting and real-time analysis from Washington insiders on the latest negotiations in Geneva, the movement of American jets to Israel, and speculation about President Trump's next move. The show also explores other breaking global stories: a deadly incident off the coast of Cuba, U.S. involvement with Mexican cartels, the Clinton-Epstein hearings on Capitol Hill, and the fast-approaching Texas primaries. Listener participation and on-the-fly news breakdowns offer a lively, nuanced look at the biggest stories of the day.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US-Iran Tensions: War on the Horizon or Diplomatic "Jaw-Jaw"?

• Main Context:
  • High-level nuclear and missile negotiations underway in Geneva, mediated by Omanis (09:01).
  • U.S. deploying combat jets to Israel—an unprecedented, public step signaling preparations for possible joint military action (09:09).
• Host Mark Halperin:
  "What suggests we may be going to war? Besides every source associated with the administration, here is the Wall Street Journal: U.S. deploys combat jets to Israel for a potential wartime mission in Iran." (09:09)
• Matt Gorman:
  Suggests odds are tipping toward military action over continued negotiations:
  "I think more war than 'jaw'. It's notable that Vance spoke out so supportive... Witkoff and Kushner getting on the phone with the president is key." (11:15)
• Jaime Moore:
  Believes the President is setting up for a "surgical, targeted" strike, not a long-term war. (11:56, 12:06)
• Polymarket insight:
  Market puts a 20% chance on a U.S. invasion of Iran (taking control of territory) before year’s end (14:46).
• Worst-case scenarios:
  Matt Gorman worries about possible Iranian-backed terrorism stateside if conflict erupts: "Splinter cells, suicide bombings, God forbid, stateside here..." (15:44)

2. Cuba Incident: Flashpoint Risk

• Recent Event:
  A boat from Florida allegedly engaged Cuban troops in a gunfight. Cuban government reports 4 killed, 6 wounded (16:00-17:34).
• Potential Impact:
  Jaime Moore warns U.S.-Cuban relations are already tense and could worsen quickly if the U.S. chooses harsh sanctions or uses the incident as pretext for heavier intervention:
  "I think the President would not feel any pain in further stranglehold[ing] their economy." (17:34)
• US Invasion Polymarket:
  12% odds of a U.S. invasion of Cuba this year, though hosts suggest it's not likely—but "this thing could be happening." (20:06)
• Lighter Moment:
  Gloria Estefan jokingly floated as possible future president of Cuba. (19:58-20:06)

3. Hillary and Bill Clinton’s Epstein Hearing

• Key Issue:
  Both Clintons are to testify about their connections to Jeffrey Epstein/Ghislaine Maxwell.
  Hillary's link is considered "tenuous," Bill’s "much more difficult" due to past associations and photographs (23:23-24:02).
• Staffing Strategy:
  Hillary expected to be sharp and tough under questioning; Bill Clinton may "filibuster" or have "Joe Biden-like" moments (24:02-26:18).
• Headline Predictions:
  • Jaime: "Clinton acknowledges support from Epstein and Maxwell for the Clinton Global Initiative." (28:35)
  • Matt Gorman: "They'll try and separate the two—Hillary denies knowledge of Bill Clinton's associations with Epstein." (28:42)
• Notable Quote:
  "The headline will be: Clinton acknowledges support from Epstein and Maxwell for the Clinton Global Initiative." — Jaime (28:35)
• Context on leaks:
  Expect substantive leaks timed for media shows such as Bret Baier's (28:56).

4. The Trump-Epstein Files Mystery

• Unreleased FBI interviews:
  Documents suggest previously undisclosed, serious allegations (sexual assault of a minor) against Donald Trump during the Epstein probe have not been released, though they're listed in discovery (29:00).
• Panel Perspective:
  Gorman and Moore both emphasize the need for journalistic rigor and skepticism, noting disorganized release of records has fueled conspiracy theories (32:56, 34:35).
• Media ethics debate:
  Should news outlets run with salacious charges against Trump if they're inconsistent or uncorroborated? (35:30-36:51)
• Comparison to Kavanaugh saga:
  Gorman warns that running with wild accusations could backfire on Democrats, as with Republican voters after the Kavanaugh hearings (37:54).

5. Political Odds and Predictions: Primary Season and Beyond

• Texas Republican Primary:
  Mark, Matt, and Jaime discuss the likelihood of a Ken Paxton victory and the consequences for national party strategy (41:10-45:00).
• Democratic primary:
  Jaime predicts Telo could win; Matt points out media bias and likely headline pivots should Jasmine Crockett upset (42:15-43:56).
• Overall Senate Race Prediction:
  Consensus, not without debate, that John Cornyn will ultimately win—likely with Trump’s endorsement post-primary (45:12-45:49).

6. US Involvement with Mexican Cartels

• Listener Questions:
  On reports of U.S. involvement in killing cartel boss “El Mencho.” Panelists agree U.S. involvement is always likely but politically downplayed for diplomatic reasons:
  "If there's ever an instance where US Special Forces or Intel might be involved, they are." — Mark Halperin (53:24)

7. AI Existential Threats & Congressional Entertainment

• AI Segment:
  Quick coverage: Scientists voicing alarm over unchecked artificial intelligence. (03:33-04:14)
• Lighter Segment:
  Oz Perlman, a mentalist, is announced as headliner for White House Correspondents’ Dinner, chosen possibly to appeal to President Trump and avoid left-wing comedy controversy. (21:30-23:23, 40:12)

Notable Quotes & Moments (Timestamps)

• On U.S.-Iran war risk:
  "I think more war than 'jaw' ..." – Matt Gorman (11:15)
• On Trump’s likely approach:
  "He wants this to be the last time in his presidency he has to deal with Iran’s nuclear capability..." – Mark Halperin (12:59)
• On handling the Clinton hearings:
  "She (Hillary) can take umbrage at all this stuff... Benghazi, that was what, 10 hours, nine hours in a chair, live TV." – Matt Gorman (24:02) "The thing about President Clinton, he will just filibuster the entire time." – Jaime Moore (26:18)
• Clinton world concerns:
  "There's worry in Clinton world about tomorrow because President Clinton is not as sharp ... Not surprising given his age." – Mark Halperin (23:23)
• On media handling of allegations:
  "If you're going to write about this or talk about this on TV or on a show like this, say everything." – Mark Halperin (36:36) "There's a lot of sneaky wordplay that, that, that... outlets use on this thing." – Matt Gorman (36:51)
• On the salaciousness and politicization of news:
  "I try not to be callous in this, but the closer we get to the midterms, the more salacious it will get and the less ... journalists are going to become a lot more lazy..." – Jaime Moore (56:40)
• On U.S. focus ahead:
  "It will be done with purpose... we’re done dealing with this as a problem." – Mark Halperin, discussing likely scope of action in Iran (12:59)
• Listener Moment:
  “One of those people [helping stop the Rhode Island shooting] was my father.” (52:18)
  Emotional thank you from Mark to the caller and his dad.

Important Segments (by Timestamp)

• Opening and scene-set: [03:32–09:09]
• US-Iran-Israel situation: [09:09–15:44]
• Cuba flashpoint discussion: [16:00–21:30]
• Clinton/Epstein Congressional hearings: [23:23–29:00]
• Trump/Epstein document controversy: [29:00–37:54]
• Polymarket and prediction conversations: [14:46, 20:06, 41:10, 42:15]
• Listener Q&A: Iran, Cuba, Epstein, Mexico, journalism ethics: [46:12–57:42]

Tone & Language

The conversation is light but incisive—mixing wry humor ("Mentalist Oz Perlman could replace the yearly comedian," "Gloria Estefan for president of Cuba"), deep concern for global events, and hard-nosed political analysis. Both hosts and guests are unafraid to speculate candidly about real political consequences, while poking fun at media, partisan narratives, and even themselves.

Overall Takeaways

• Iran is at a "do or deal" moment: Massive military posturing and ongoing negotiations make a limited, targeted strike the most likely outcome, unless a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough emerges.
• Clinton world in defensive posture: Both Clintons are under intense scrutiny for past Epstein associations, with staffers banking on Hillary’s disciplined approach and bracing for Bill’s unpredictability.
• White House bracing for cascading crises: Trump White House faces risks of escalation in Iran, Cuba, and possibly Mexico—against an intense election backdrop.
• Salacious headlines ahead: The intersection of Epstein allegations, “missing” Trump documents, and the media’s appetite for scandal will likely dominate cable news as midterms near.
• Listeners: curious, skeptical, and highly engaged. The audience brings tough questions about foreign policy, journalistic integrity, and the real-life consequences of sensational coverage.

This summary is tailored for listeners and readers seeking in-depth background and nuance on today’s top international and political headlines, as discussed by informed, plugged-in news insiders.