CHASING BASKETBALL HEAVEN Episode 1: The Imperfect Arc

Summary

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30 for 30 Podcasts

CHASING BASKETBALL HEAVEN Episode 1: The Imperfect Arc

Release Date: July 22, 2025
Host: ESPN, Rich Levine & Nick Altschuler
Episode Theme: The story of Martin Manley, a forgotten basketball analytics visionary who saw the future of the three-point revolution—and why his genius went unnoticed, even as his ideas eventually shaped the NBA.

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Overview

Episode 1, “The Imperfect Arc,” launches a six-part investigation into the life of Martin Manley—a statistical savant who foresaw basketball’s seismic shift towards three-point shooting and efficiency. The episode traces how the NBA’s fundamental geometry changed over 50 years, from a clogged lane to today's perimeter-heavy, analytics-driven game. Through interviews, history, and excerpts from Manley’s own work, the episode spotlights the intersection of oddball genius, innovation, and recognition.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Introducing Martin Manley – Basketball’s Forgotten Prophet

• Martin Manley, an eccentric with a powerful gift for numbers, becomes obsessed with maximizing basketball’s efficiency.

• Synesthesia: Manley saw numbers as colors, giving him a unique, almost mystical read on the sport’s patterns.

  "Whenever he looked at them, they appeared across the color spectrum from Celtic green to Laker gold. ... Once Martin Manley did [harness it], he figured out a way to completely change the game of basketball."
  — Rich Levine (01:32)

• Manley’s core vision: teams should shoot more 3-pointers, decades before the league followed suit.

• He makes his life’s work “public domain,” signaling both his oddity and altruism.

  "I, Martin Manley, ... release all rights to this work, making it public domain. Anyone can do with it whatever they wish."
  — Craig Kilborn as Martin Manley (00:49)

2. NBA Evolution: From Peach Baskets to Threes

• Context setting: Basketball’s early years were crowded under the rim, inefficient, and slow to change.
• The three-point line was a late, almost accidental addition—a result of competing leagues, marketing needs, and the desire to "open up the lane."
• Emphasis on how rule changes—three-second violation (1935), goaltending (1944), widening the lane (1951)—tried to break the hold of dominant big men, but it wasn’t until the creation of the three-point line that the court truly “opened up.”

  “The three pointer... awarded 50% more points. Now players had a reason to move farther away from the basket.”
  — Nick Altschuler (13:41)

Notable Timestamps:

• [05:17] — Comparison of three-point attempts: 1984 Finals (42 total) vs. 2024 Finals (359 total)
• [06:51] — The first basketball games: no dribbling, baskets needed to be unhooked to retrieve the ball.
• [10:16] — Invention of the 24-second shot clock and “the Mikan rule”
• [13:55] — ABA’s adoption of the three-point line

3. The Three-Pointer—An Oddity Turned Revolution

• The NBA at first ignored and marginalized the three-pointer, using it as a gimmick or All-Star event sideshow.
• Early adopters discuss how strange and counterintuitive the shot was to players and coaches raised in the two-point era.
  • Brian Taylor, first NBA three-point leader, shares the slow path to embracing the shot—emphasizing the role of analytics-minded coaches.

    “I had to come to grips with whether it was a good shot or not. ... I gave a lot of thought to the mathematics and analytics of it.”
    — Brian Taylor (19:09)

• Societal resistance: Coaches feared or disliked the three; players trained without thinking about it.
• By 1986, teams still averaged only 3.3 three-point attempts per game.

4. Anecdotes & Interviews Illustrating the Change

• Brian Taylor on statistics, early analytics, and how coach belief matters:

  “Paul Silas didn’t believe in the three point shot. ... I always had to look over on the sideline and him yelling at me for coming down off the break and shooting the three pointer off the break.”
  — Brian Taylor (21:10)

• Dale Ellis—first to 1,000 career threes—never tried one in college; discovers his talent thanks to handchecking-era defense in practice.

  “They had no idea that I could face the basket and pull up from that distance and shoot a three.”
  — Dale Ellis (31:24)

5. Martin Manley’s Moment: 1989 NBA All-Star Game

• Manley attends the All-Star Game in Houston, sits quietly on the margins, and finally, on national TV, presents his “Basketball Heaven” ideas.
• His book is introduced as revolutionary, and he’s compared to Bill James, the father of baseball analytics.
• This marks a pivotal, but ultimately unheralded, turning point—Manley offers the league a clear analytic blueprint, but few are ready to follow.

  “Martin Manley is a statistician extraordinaire. He has done for basketball what Bill James has done for baseball.”
  — Fred Hickman (36:41)

• Despite the accolades, most stars (like Dale Ellis) have never heard of Martin Manley or read his work.

6. The Irony of Genius: Change Takes Time

• Manley, like Bill James in baseball, was years ahead of the mainstream. The episode ends with the paradox: Can you lead if no one follows?

  “But can you be a leader if no one follows you?”
  — Rich Levine (41:28)

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Quotes & Memorable Moments

Synesthesia and Manley’s Vision

"His power dealt with numbers. Whenever he looked at them, they appeared across the color spectrum from Celtic green to Laker gold. It's called synesthesia."
— Rich Levine (01:32)

Three-Pointer’s Statistical Advantage

“What Taylor means is if he attempted one hundred 3 pointers and hit 42, that would be worth 126 points. If he shot one hundred two pointers and hit 60, that would only be worth 120 points. So shooting 42% from three is actually better than shooting 60% from two.”
— Nick Altschuler (19:51)

Coaching Resistance

“Paul Silas didn’t believe in the three point shot. ... I always had to look over on the sideline and him yelling at me for coming down off the break and shooting the three pointer off the break.”
— Brian Taylor (21:10)

Bill James Comparison

“Martin Manley is a statistician extraordinaire. He has done for basketball what Bill James has done for baseball.”
— Fred Hickman (36:41)
(replayed for emphasis at 36:41 and 40:01)

On Recognition and Legacy

“But can you be a leader if no one follows you?”
— Rich Levine (41:28)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:49–03:03: Introduction to Martin Manley’s eccentricities and life philosophy
• 05:17–06:43: Three-point explosion: Historical vs. modern NBA stats
• 10:16–13:15: Rule changes to “move the game out of the lane”
• 15:00–17:19: The NBA’s adoption of the three-pointer
• 18:33–21:37: Brian Taylor on adapting to the three-point shot
• 26:23–27:33: 1989 All-Star Game—contextual shift moment
• 31:07–33:25: Dale Ellis’ development as a three-point shooter, starting behind the arc almost by accident.
• 36:15–41:07: Martin Manley’s TV appearance as the “Bill James of basketball” and his case for a three-point revolution

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Structure and Tone

• The hosts balance deep statistical insight and humor. Personal childhood memories serve as touchstones to larger sports evolutions, lending warmth, nostalgia, and fan authenticity.
• Interviews with past players (Brian Taylor, Dale Ellis) and simulated voice-acted readings (Craig Kilborn as Martin Manley) add character and intimacy.
• The episode ends on a note of foreshadowed sadness: Manley’s revolution comes but not in the way he or the world expected.

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Conclusion

“The Imperfect Arc” sets the table for a season about overlooked visionaries, basketball’s transformation, and the slow, sometimes lonely process of changing how the world understands the game. Martin Manley’s mathematical clarity couldn’t immediately outpace cultural inertia, but as the stats—and the court—bend in his direction, the series promises to revisit his fate and legacy.

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Transcript

[Preeti Varadhan]

Hi, I'm Preeti Varadhan and I run 30 for 30 podcasts. You're about to listen to season 15 of our show. It's six episodes and we're giving all of it to you right away because this story is a journey. I promise. If you're an episode in and you're making guesses about where this might be going, a lot of you will be wrong. I was wrong. And that's part of what I love about it. This season we get into the story of a little known genius who predicted the future of basketball, who saw the way numbers would change the game. But then he vanished and all he left was a website. It's a story about basketball, but it's also a story about the wild, reckless things humans do to try to live forever. I hope you enjoy it. We sure loved making it.

[Nick Altschuler]

Some might think it's odd for a man to release the rights of his greatest work, but not Martin Manley.

[Craig Kilborn]

I, Martin Manley, being the creator and owner of this site, neither hold nor retain any claim or copyright on any part of this. Rather, I release all rights to this work, making it public domain. Anyone can do with it whatever they wish.

[Nick Altschuler]

Martin Manley was definitely odd. He slept every other day for years. He only drank Pepsi for the last decade of his life. He wore a fedora at all times, except in church or if he was sleeping. And he was obsessive about basketball. Not the action, but the stats. For all his eccentricities, Martin also had

[Rich Levine]

a superpower, but not the cape and tight sort of thing. His power dealt with numbers. Whenever he looked at them, they appeared across the color spectrum from Celtic green to Laker gold. It's called synesthesia. It's a condition where senses are mistaken for each other. So imagine tasting words or seeing sounds. It can trip you up unless you harness it. And once Martin Manley did, he figured out a way to completely change the game of basketball. His vision would increase space and emphasize efficiency. He believed if you weren't maximizing the potential of every single moment, you were wasting it.

[Nick Altschuler]

A key part of his vision. We should be shooting more threes. The predominance of three pointers is the most controversial aspect of today's game. But they were barely taken in the 1980s. Back then, the game was vastly different than the one you see today. It was a bunch of tall guys fighting for position near the hoop, clogging the lane, the space behind the arc. Almost an afterthought.

[Rich Levine]

And that's where the game might have stayed if not for our hero. He saw the numbers behind the game dancing like the colors in a kaleidoscope. It was pure heaven. A basketball heaven. So he made it his mission to elevate the game into the clouds.

[Nick Altschuler]

What's crazy is Martin Manley actually did it. In a way at least. The trouble is his story didn't quite turn out the way he imagined, but

[Rich Levine]

it ended exactly how he planned.

[Nick Altschuler]

And he even got his wish that for someone to tell his story, that would be us.

[Rich Levine]

A couple of writers who lived through the history. Two basketball nerds who can still tell you which old NBA players share our birthdays and used to put ourselves to sleep at night reading the same old NBA almanac year after year.

[Nick Altschuler]

Which is not how you're supposed to use an almanac. So it's safe to say we have our own eccentricities.

[Rich Levine]

We can sympathize with a man like Martin. I mean, in some frightening ways he even relate to him. We trailed this guy for more than a decade. He haunted our thoughts and altered the way we live. He also inspired us to tell his story.

[Nick Altschuler]

So let's get this thing going. Let's talk about where the game is today and how it's miles apart from its origins. And let's trace the history of its changes from the peach basket to the three point line, which isn't even a line. It's an imperfect arc, which is a hell of a metaphor for this story.

[Rich Levine]

From 30 for 30 podcasts. I'm Rich Levine.

[Nick Altschuler]

I'm Nick Oldschuler and this is chasing basketball heaven.

[Rich Levine]

Episode 1 the Imperfect Arc.

[Preeti Varadhan]

5:00am I'm up with a crisp Celsius energy drink running 12 miles today. Grab a green juice, quick change and head to work. Meetings, workshops. One more Celsius. No slowing down, working late, but obviously still meeting the girls for a little dancing. Celsius Live Fit. Go grab a cold refreshing Celsius at your local retailer or locate [e-mail]

[Craig Kilborn]

they do have a timeout. Decide not to use a Curry way downtown. Bang bang. Oh what a strike from Curry Today,

[Nick Altschuler]

the NBA is massive. It's an industry with $76 billion in media deals and growing markets around the world. But the league's beginnings were humble, the contest just something to stage between hockey games. The NBA evolved slowly on its road to success.

[Rich Levine]

Nick and I have watched a lot of that process play out, both as basketball fans and writers covering the NBA for more than 40 years. Whether sitting in the stands, on press row, at home, on the couch, or just about anywhere on our phones, the biggest Change. We, and I think just about every fan has seen is the explosion of three pointers. Just to give you an idea, back in 1984 when Nick and I were just adorable little mass holes, the Celtics played the lakers in the NBA Finals. Over the seven game series, the teams took a total of 42 three pointers. In the 2024 Finals in only a five game series, the Celtics and Mavericks combined to shoot 359 three pointers.

[Nick Altschuler]

In March 2025, the Lakers and newly acquired Luka Doncic came to Boston for a battle with the defending champion Celtics. Rich and I were there.

[Rich Levine]

What did we say? We're going to guess how many three pointers were shot tonight. Did you say 80?

[Nick Altschuler]

I said 80.

[Rich Levine]

Combined. Combined 80.

[Nick Altschuler]

I felt a little silly after that. Guess 80 seeming like a ludicrous number. I was very close. They shot 78. Back in that 84 season, the Celtics and Lakers combined to attempt 455 threes. In 2025, both teams combined for nearly 7,000.

[Craig Kilborn]

Tatum's long three pointer. That's good. Way downtown is Tatum.

[Nick Altschuler]

Basketball itself is over 100 years old. And in the beginning back in the 1890s, there was no three point line. Actually the game was more ultimate frisbee than what we know today. The player with the ball wasn't even allowed to move. So no crossovers. And safe to say no dunking either.

[Rich Levine]

Today the big basketball buzzword is efficiency. Back then it was anything but. As many know, the first hoop was a peach basket. But did you know it was over a decade before anyone thought to cut a hole in the bottom after every single score, they had to stop the action, bring out a ladder. Not very exciting unless you're a aspiring firefighter. Also not very efficient.

[Nick Altschuler]

Love ladders.

[Rich Levine]

I can imagine, Nick. You're the one guy in the stands who just starts clapping as they bring the ladder out.

[Craig Kilborn]

Woo hoo.

[Nick Altschuler]

Back then, height was king and the game seemed trapped in a thicket of very tall people hanging out under the hoop.

[Rich Levine]

So rulemakers began a systematic effort to push them away.

[Nick Altschuler]

In 1935, the NCAA introduced a three second rule.

[Rich Levine]

This stated that if a player dropped their gum on the court but still wanted to chew it, they just had to pick it up very quickly.

[Nick Altschuler]

That's more of an unwritten rule. The one I'm referring to prohibited offensive players from standing in the lane or by the hoop for longer than three seconds at a time. Then in 1944, the college game identified goaltending as an issue and banned it. The rule made it illegal to touch the ball in its downward flight or while just above the rim.

[Rich Levine]

This was a reaction to the early giants of the sport like Oklahoma State seven footer Bob Kurland, credited as the first man to dunk in a college game. And also 6 foot 10 DePaul center George Mikin, the first truly dominant big man and I should say, the first to rock a mean pair of Rex specs.

[Craig Kilborn]

Mikan is still a man to reckon with, as this one hander proves a great star giving his all after a long layoff.

[Nick Altschuler]

With this new rule, Mikken can no longer jump up and swat away shots falling toward the hoop.

[Rich Levine]

In 1949, two rival professional leagues, the BAA and NBL, merged to form the National Basketball Association. And before long, the NBA had its own Mikan problem.

[Craig Kilborn]

It's Minneapolis ball. Schaefer passes to Mikan in the pivot and the big center dribbles in and scores.

[Rich Levine]

In that 1949 season, the big man averaged 27 points a game.

[Nick Altschuler]

And this is the time when only one other player even averaged 20.

[Rich Levine]

And Mikan's Minneapolis Lakers cruised to the first ever NBA title.

[Nick Altschuler]

That next season, teams decided the only way to beat Mikan was to prevent the Lakers from having the ball in the first place. Good strategy, horrible aesthetics.

[Rich Levine]

In one particularly boring game, the Fort Wayne Pistons held the ball for minutes at a time on their way to a 1918 victory over Mikan's Lakers. It's still the lowest scoring game in NBA history.

[Nick Altschuler]

The league took action. First. In 1951, they created the Mikan rule, which widened the paint under the hoop from 6 to 12ft in conjunction with the 3 second rule. The hope was an expanded key would force big men Farther away. In 1954, to combat the stalling tactics, the NBA introduced the 24 second shot clock.

[Rich Levine]

And while the shot clock did improve the pace of the game, efforts to move players farther away from the basket didn't have as much impact as they hoped.

[Nick Altschuler]

The reward for scoring from 2ft out or 10ft out or 25ft was all just two points. So you might as well be closer where the shots are easier.

[Rich Levine]

Basically, the NBA needed a spark, a shot of spontaneity, a need that grew steadily as The Celtics won 11 of 13 championships through the late 50s and 60s. Behind 6 foot 10 Bill Russell, a dominant big man and the greatest defensive player the league has ever seen.

[Craig Kilborn]

The miraculous Boston Celtics become the NBA champions for the elite 11th time in 13 years.

[Rich Levine]

Defense doesn't really sell tickets. Even prolific scoring gets old. Want an example of NBA popularity? In the 60s, when Wilt Chamberlain had his 100 point game in 1962, there were barely 4,000 fans in the stands. The game wasn't televised, there wasn't a single photographer working. The only reason we even have that legendary snapshot of Wilt with the number 100 written on scrap paper is because an off duty AP photographer named Paul Vathis happened to be at the game with his son. With the league growing stale, it was ripe for competition. In 1961, Abe Saperstein, founder of the Harlem Globetrotters, started the American Basketball league.

[Nick Altschuler]

Standing just 5 foot 3, Saperstein is the shortest man in the Basketball hall of Fame. And his idea to compete with the NBA was to empower the smaller player. So he introduced the first professional three point line. Before that season, he walked out onto the court with a roll of tape and measured an arc just shy of 24ft.

[Rich Levine]

Okay, I gotta ask why just shy of 24ft?

[Nick Altschuler]

I will tell you. It's because it just felt right. Honestly, his son Jerry is quoted as saying, they just arbitrarily drew lines. There's no scientific basis. The three and the league didn't catch on though. And the ABL only lasted a season and a half.

[Rich Levine]

However, come 1967, the NBA finally had some serious competition. The American Basketball association, or the aba. Founded on energy and creativity, marketing itself as professional basketball. With the volume turned up, they replaced the standard brown leather ball with the now iconic red, white and blue one. The league would feature high flying stars like Dr. J. Julius Irving and the Iceman George Gervin. They had a slam dunk contest and also a three point line.

[Craig Kilborn]

The ABA feels that this extra incentive to shoot from far to out causes the defense to open up. Create a more exciting game for the fans. Give the team that's behind an opportunity to close the gap quickly with long three point shots. Gives the little man more of a chance to balance up his value in

[Nick Altschuler]

the game compared to the big man.

[Rich Levine]

Sure, he was part gimmick, but in the ABA the three point line was also a selling point. Threes were a particular favorite of league commissioner. Wouldn't you know it, the man with the rec specs, George Mikan. Here's one quote from Mikan in a history of the ABA called loose balls. We called it the home run because the three pointer was exactly that. It brought fans out of their seats.

[Nick Altschuler]

The three point line, that imperfect arc awarding 50% more points. Now players had a reason to move farther away from the basket. And as an added bonus, guys like Irving And Gervin had a suddenly wide open court.

[Craig Kilborn]

Julius Irving on the run. Dr. James.

[Nick Altschuler]

With players spread out, the key was harder to clog. Driving lanes opened up and the game flowed in a way it hadn't before. But when the two leagues finally merged in 1976 and that opportunity for change was there, the three point line didn't make the cut.

[Rich Levine]

According to Angela Drosos, then owner of the San Antonio spurs, the NBA moguls didn't want the three point shot. Celtics president Red Auerbach hated it. He had everybody up in arms against the play.

[Nick Altschuler]

And guess what? NBA ratings got worse. By the late 70s, national TV ratings were down 26%. The Finals weren't even shown live, but on tape delay. And the league's games on CBS were routinely pummeled by boxing. Attendance was down in major markets like New York, Chicago and even la.

[Rich Levine]

And that brings us to what is arguably the most important season in the history of professional basketball. 1979.

[Craig Kilborn]

We make a lot about Magic Johnson and Larry bird.

[Nick Altschuler]

There are two reasons why 1979 is so vital, one you're familiar with even if you're not a big basketball fan. Magic Johnson and Larry Bird entered the league fresh off their college national championship showdown. These young rival superstars generated a lot of excitement.

[Craig Kilborn]

Very excited about the big crowd and about being here in Boston for my first time. It'll be a big game, a lot

[Rich Levine]

of enthusiasts throughout the crowd, and let

[Craig Kilborn]

us hope the best team wins today.

[Rich Levine]

But what has gone unremembered or more accurately, undervalued is the second reason 1979 deserves some love. Three years after the merger, the NBA adopted one of the ABA's marketing ploys on a one year trial basis. The three pointer.

[Nick Altschuler]

It happened on October 12th, the first night of the 79 season at the old Boston Garden. The Celtics hosted the Houston Rockets. Of course, we remember it as Bird's first game.

[Rich Levine]

Everyone at the Garden marveled at Larry Bird's every move. But it was a play about eight minutes into the game where his debut was briefly overshadowed by teammate Chris Ford, a floppy haired, mustachioed fella who by

[Nick Altschuler]

the way, looks a lot more like my geometry teacher than he ever did a professional shooting guard.

[Rich Levine]

Or is it more that a professional shooting guard used to look more like a geometry teacher?

[Craig Kilborn]

Bird back over to Archibald. Archibald fakes once, rolls it up, tops the four and a step back pop. It's going to the three point play. Good for the three point play.

[Nick Altschuler]

The first three pointer in NBA history.

[Rich Levine]

But here's the funny thing. It was Boston's only three point make of the game. The Celtics didn't hit another until a week later. For that whole season, Boston barely attempted 400 threes. In 2025, they took nearly 4,000.

[Nick Altschuler]

So how did we get to where teams are routinely shooting thousands of three pointers a year? Let's start with a look at Brian Taylor, the first player to lead the NBA in threes back in the aba. He was Julius Erving's wingman on the nets and saw firsthand how long range threes opened up the court for the doctor. His perspective is something most execs, coaches and players couldn't see that first NBA season.

[Rich Levine]

With the new line, Taylor hit A league leading 90 threes for the San Diego Clippers.

[Craig Kilborn]

Here's Taylor. Boy, he just sets up automatically outside

[Rich Levine]

that three point play all by himself. Taylor eclipsed the season three point totals of 19 of 22 NBA teams. And when we caught up with him, the first thing he noticed was my hat.

[Brian Taylor]

So you're a Celtic fan, huh?

[Rich Levine]

I am, yes. And wanted to know if I had the old Larry Bird sneakers to match.

[Brian Taylor]

You got the 3/4 black converse on.

[Rich Levine]

Oh man, I wish. I wonder what one of those would go for now.

[Brian Taylor]

I know, right?

[Rich Levine]

It's unbelievable. I mean, I mean, you know as well as anyone but you think about the shoes, guys playing now and back then with the Chuck Taylors or those Converse, like there wasn't so much, that much support, was there?

[Brian Taylor]

No, there was no support. I wonder how we were able to jump so high. I didn't start jumping high until I got my first pair of Adidas though when I was in high school. So you know, we really were in the vanguard of wearing Nikes in the late 70s. And you had to get a new pair of Nikes almost every game because they spread so quickly.

[Rich Levine]

A first round pick out of Princeton in the 1972 ABA draft. Taylor lived through the initial history of the three point line. Though at first, like everybody else, he barely noticed. What he loved about the ABA was the colorful ball, not the three point line.

[Brian Taylor]

I didn't even care. I didn't even think about the three for several years in the aba. As a matter of fact, I look at my statistics and I didn't shoot a lot of threes.

[Nick Altschuler]

Over his first three years, from 1972 to 1975, Taylor attempted less than half a three pointer a game.

[Brian Taylor]

I had to come to grips with whether it was a good shot or not. And so I gave a lot of thought to the mathematics and the analytics of it. And it took me three years to really feel comfortable shooting that shot. Actually the year that I led the ABA in three point shooting, still didn't shoot a lot of threes. I just shot a really high percentage, but I think I shot like 42%.

[Nick Altschuler]

He thought correctly. He shot 42.1 to be exact.

[Brian Taylor]

Yeah, I figured thinking about it in terms of what a 42% equivalent would be for a two point shot and it's up there, you know, 42% is closing in on 60%.

[Nick Altschuler]

What Taylor means is if he attempted one hundred and three pointers and hit 42, which would be 42%, that would be worth one hundred and twenty six points. If he shot one hundred two pointers and hit 60 for 60%, that would only be worth 120 points. So shooting 42% from three is actually better than shooting 60% from two.

[Rich Levine]

Taylor made the leap to the NBA when the leagues merged in 1976. So when the NBA added the three point line in 1979, he was already familiar with the math. But as he told us, the real reason he led the league in threes was his head coach.

[Brian Taylor]

I was fortunate enough to have the late Gene Shue who was analytic thinking and saw that Brian could shoot from that distance and we'll get one extra point. So he gave me the green light in 1979 to shoot that shot.

[Craig Kilborn]

Three up to Taylor and Taylor pulls up three pointer. Goodbye Taylor. Brian Taylor. Oh, look how far out this shot was. If they had a four pointer that would definitely be it, wouldn't it?

[Rich Levine]

Like Gabe Saperstein, Shue had a vision for improving short players lives. But Brian's next coach is Paul Silas, a former NBA champion and all star whose entire game was about muscle under the basket.

[Brian Taylor]

Paul Silas came in and he's being the big man. He hated to shot. You look at my numbers. I shot probably 50% less.

[Nick Altschuler]

I was gonna ask you about that

[Brian Taylor]

because the coach didn't believe in it.

[Nick Altschuler]

That's what it was. Okay.

[Brian Taylor]

Yeah, Paul Silas didn't believe in the three point shot. You know, he still had me nervous all the time. I always had to look over on the sidelines and him yelling at me for coming down off the break and shooting the three pointer off the break.

[Rich Levine]

Did you ever envision that the game was going to evolve in the way that it did?

[Brian Taylor]

I have no idea, no clue. Because I even questioned whether they would keep it because there were so many detractors of that shot coming into the NBA in 79. So I didn't even know whether it was going to last or not. It was like the great experiment.

[Craig Kilborn]

Taylor, three pointer, phenomenal shooting. I'll tell you that's tough out there. It's a long ways out there, isn't it? 22ft from the sidelines.

[Rich Levine]

I guess the experiment succeeded because the NBA three point line did stick around. But for a long while it was still mostly ignored.

[Nick Altschuler]

In that first season, 7980 teams averaged 2.8 attempts a game. By 1986 attempts did go up, but just barely. 3.3 threes a game. It was still little more than an oddity.

[Rich Levine]

And in a way like we can understand that, right? Like head coaches like Paul Silas were old school guys who had mastered a game that didn't include the three.

[Nick Altschuler]

None of the books on basketball included three point strategy. None of the players had grown up shooting threes. This kind of thing takes time.

[Rich Levine]

And in general, the NBA was still mostly just ignoring advanced stats, which is basically anything beyond the raw numbers you see in a box score, points, rebounds, assists. But an advanced stat uses those raw numbers to provide some next level insight. For instance, imagine a catch all shooting percentage. One that includes twos and threes and corrects for the difference in value. Today we have that stat. It's called effective field goal percentage. But back then it was hard enough to convince teams that three is more than two.

[Nick Altschuler]

This was an era when drafting Sam Bowie.

[Rich Levine]

Seven foot one, thank you.

[Nick Altschuler]

Over Michael Jordan.

[Rich Levine]

Oh, were you aware Michael Jordan, 6 foot 6?

[Nick Altschuler]

I am now, thank you. Was defensible because the Portland Trailblazers already had Clyde Drexler.

[Rich Levine]

If you're wondering, 6 foot 7, a

[Nick Altschuler]

two way star with multiple all NBA seasons ahead of him.

[Rich Levine]

Although honestly, Nick, I do get it. Like who needs a second all star swingman?

[Nick Altschuler]

I don't know. But seven footers with troubling medical records, you can never get enough of those right.

[Rich Levine]

But you could blame the NBA for ignoring complicated math when the bottom line was on a meteoric rise. By the mid-1980s, the league was more popular than ever. Finally, it had bonafide. Star Bird and Magic had electrified the nation. Ratings boomed, fans came back. Who has the energy to worry about math when your product is soaring? Collecting new fans with every new highlight dunk or memorable commercial. New fans like me and me.

[Nick Altschuler]

Two kids from Massachusetts, a little too young to understand the greatness of the Celtics and still decades away from understanding the power of statistical analysis. But falling in love with professional basketball.

[Rich Levine]

My first NBA memory is from game two of the first round of that 1986 postseason I was there with my dad at the old Boston Garden taking

[Craig Kilborn]

the tempo away from the Celtics trying to Michael Jordan right now.

[Rich Levine]

23 year old Jordan scored a still NBA playoff record 63 points that afternoon. The Bulls and Celtics scored a combined 266 points. I caught some of this game recently on YouTube and I couldn't believe my eyes. Every single possession, all 10 players squeezed inside the three point line. It was like the floor outside the arc was hot lava aim starting Michael Jordan.

[Craig Kilborn]

Jordan goes up with a shot and hits it and has 61 points to tie Elgin Baylor.

[Nick Altschuler]

I was born the year the NBA 3 was introduced. 1979.

[Rich Levine]

Oh Jesus, you're old. The 70s.

[Nick Altschuler]

I'm a year older than you.

[Rich Levine]

You were an entire decade older than

[Nick Altschuler]

me, but we both grew up playing at a time when taking a three was more likely to see you benched than cheered. At 6 4, I stood taller than average and the idea of me playing anywhere outside the paint was absurd to any coach I ever had.

[Rich Levine]

You can't teach height, they used to say. And they certainly weren't going to teach us to shoot from distance.

[Nick Altschuler]

It was still the big man era, but there was a glimmer of change. The NBA embraced the three in a way treating the novelty like a side act at the All Star Game, the long distance shootout aka the three point contest. Our man Larry Bird won it in 1986.

[Rich Levine]

It should be noted he also won in 1987.

[Nick Altschuler]

Let the record show, also 1988.

[Rich Levine]

Something was starting to change. In 1989. The NBA was ready to blast into the future at All Star Weekend in Houston, an event of critical importance to long distance shots and to us and to our story.

[Nick Altschuler]

For it's here in Houston where our winding journey finally meets up with the man who had calculated one simple path forward.

[Rich Levine]

Right after this break,

[Nick Altschuler]

The world moves fast. Your workday even faster. Pitching products, drafting reports, analyzing data. Microsoft 365 Copilot is your AI assistant for work built into Word, Excel, PowerPoint and other Microsoft 365 apps you use, helping you quickly write, analyze, create and summarize so you can cut through clutter and clear a path to your best work. Learn [e-mail] M365 copilot.

[Craig Kilborn]

We are now inside a sold out Astrodome.

[Rich Levine]

And before game time we have a

[Craig Kilborn]

very special All Star introduction.

[Rich Levine]

Yeah, here comes the All Star. The 1989 All Star game was held inside the cavernous Houston Astrodome. It's a baseball field, so they refitted it for hoops they laid down a cord on top of the infield, lined it all with a red carpet.

[Craig Kilborn]

Barkley follows up.

[Nick Altschuler]

They even set up extra sets of stands.

[Rich Levine]

If you're in the upper deck at the top row, the seven footers would look like ants.

[Nick Altschuler]

Elijah Wong, you probably were not happy with the ticket price.

[Rich Levine]

Yes, $13.

[Nick Altschuler]

And yet they sold the thing out. At that point, this All Star Game was the most attended game in NBA history.

[Rich Levine]

So they pulled out all the stops, including a special theme song for the weekend, aptly titled NBA Allstar Rap from the legendary Ultra Magnetic. MCs.

[Craig Kilborn]

Kevin Duckworth dominating the earth as the middleman. Dominating every little man back and forth

[Nick Altschuler]

down the low post for the slam.

[Craig Kilborn]

Pulverizing the hoop.

[Rich Levine]

Cause he's an all Star. It's truly a time capsule into an age of awkward progress for the NBA. Look out.

[Craig Kilborn]

Oh, Karl Malone, who is the top scorer.

[Nick Altschuler]

After a booming decade, it was a time of transition. 1989 was the first All Star game of the 80s without Bird and Magic. Bird missed just about the entire season with bone spurs in his feet.

[Rich Levine]

Ouch.

[Nick Altschuler]

Magic was the leading vote getter for the west, but skipped the game with an injury so that 41 year old Lakers teammate Kareem Abdul Jabbar, on a farewell tour in his 20th NBA season, could play in one last All Star game.

[Rich Levine]

There's the hook.

[Craig Kilborn]

Yes, that's great standing o. Kareem Abdul jabbar in his 18th All Star Game. He hit the sky hook.

[Rich Levine]

Yes. It was a time of transition. The end of an era. The most lucrative decade in NBA history. But a transition into what?

[Nick Altschuler]

Well, into guys like Dale Ellis.

[Rich Levine]

Nick, you have any curiosity into how tall Dale Ellis was?

[Nick Altschuler]

I feel like you're gonna tell me.

[Rich Levine]

Well, Dale Ellis for those keeping score was 6 foot 7.

[Nick Altschuler]

Thank you so much.

[Dale Ellis]

Richard, can you hear me?

[Rich Levine]

Yeah, we got you.

[Craig Kilborn]

Dale.

[Rich Levine]

How are you?

[Dale Ellis]

Rich, how are you?

[Nick Altschuler]

Good.

[Rich Levine]

And here with Nick is here too. It's my partner and all this.

[Dale Ellis]

How you doing, Nick?

[Nick Altschuler]

Good, how are you?

[Dale Ellis]

Fantastic.

[Nick Altschuler]

Thanks for taking the time.

[Dale Ellis]

No, my pleasure.

[Nick Altschuler]

These days Dale Ellis is remembered as a prolific three point shooter. He was the first player to reach 1000 threes in a career.

[Dale Ellis]

So I was always best friends with the guards, the guys that pass you the ball.

[Rich Levine]

But he actually never attempted an in Game 3 until he made it to the NBA. Because like every other player at that time, Ellis didn't grow up with a three point line.

[Nick Altschuler]

That may seem impossible to believe as right this minute there are kids imagining their Steph Curry in driveways all across America. But when Ellis was a kid, I

[Dale Ellis]

love Kareem Abdul Jabbar. I was throwing hook shots. It didn't matter what distance I was from the basket. I was throwing a hook shot pretending to be him on the playgrounds.

[Rich Levine]

Playgrounds didn't have three point lines. Neither did high schools, and Dale Ellis never played with the line while in college at the University of Tennessee. So when Ellis got to the league, taken ninth by Dallas in the 83 draft, he learned he could hit threes almost by accident, thanks to her friendship with fellow Mavs rookie Derek Harper.

[Nick Altschuler]

Harper is known as one of the best backcourt defenders of his generation, and

[Dale Ellis]

after practice we'd play one on one. He had great hands, so he was one of those guys that could make you go left or right.

[Nick Altschuler]

Harper also took full advantage of an entirely different element of the game that the league had yet to outlaw.

[Dale Ellis]

The handshaking rules weren't in place at that time, so it was hard to get past him to get a clear lane to the basket. So at every opportunity, I would take what he would give me and coaches saw me shoot threes. They had no idea that I could face the basket and pull up from that distance and shoot a three.

[Nick Altschuler]

In the summer of 86, Ellis moved to Seattle. He rose to stardom as the leader of an upstart supersonics team who rocked the bright green and gold jerseys.

[Rich Levine]

I think they're more of like a yellow, aren't they?

[Nick Altschuler]

The official website says gold.

[Rich Levine]

I think it's more of like a yellow.

[Nick Altschuler]

Gold, Yellow. Gold is gold rich.

[Rich Levine]

Fittingly, Ellis also changed his Jersey number from 14 to number three.

[Dale Ellis]

I ended up in the start lineup and threw the ball away a couple times. He called the timeout and said, you're here to shoot it. If you refuse to shoot it, you can sit next to me. And I decided I'm going to shoot the basketball. And my teammates knew that when the ball got in my hands, they can start jockeying for position for a rebound. It might not be a rebound. It was going in shooting it.

[Rich Levine]

That first year in Seattle, Ellis led the entire NBA in three point attempts with 240.

[Craig Kilborn]

Dale Ellis, again, this guy is on fire.

[Nick Altschuler]

He simultaneously ran away with the most improved player award.

[Rich Levine]

His increase from 7.1 to 24.9 points per game is still the largest single season leap in NBA history.

[Nick Altschuler]

And it landed him at the 1989 All Star Game as the best long range shooter in the game. And he proved it that weekend by beating marksman Craig Hodges. In the final of the three point shootout,

[Craig Kilborn]

Dale Ellis, a bridesmaid no longer, winner of the long distance shootout over Greg Hutches.

[Rich Levine]

Like Brian Taylor before, Dale Ellis had stumbled on the secret.

[Dale Ellis]

After shooting from that distance, I didn't quite get why more players weren't shooting from there.

[Rich Levine]

But what Ellis didn't know was that in Houston that weekend was the man who saw his full potential. The future, really. The man who saw numbers is colors and analytics is high religion. The one who on this very weekend, found himself in position to change the game forever.

[Craig Kilborn]

Well, Dallas, how's it feel to have the trophy?

[Rich Levine]

He'd been watching Dale Ellis, studying him and his three point attempts, even if the attention wasn't exactly mutual.

[Nick Altschuler]

Should we ask about Martin?

[Rich Levine]

Yeah. Have you. Do you. Have you ever heard the name Martin Manley?

[Dale Ellis]

No.

[Rich Levine]

Read the book Basketball Heaven?

[Dale Ellis]

No, I'm not familiar with him.

[Nick Altschuler]

Martin was actually there in 89. Oh, he was doing some reporting for TBS, but his whole thing was efficiency. And he was the first guy to say, like, why aren't people shooting more three pointers? This is silly. So when you won the contest, he was. He was watching you.

[Dale Ellis]

Oh, wow.

[Rich Levine]

Even if you were looking for Martin MANLEY during that 1989 All Star weekend, you probably would have walked right past him. He was unassuming, just a 30something white guy from Kansas. Short, dark hair, sturdy 80s mustache.

[Nick Altschuler]

He wasn't an imposing physical presence. He was soft spoken, never an athlete. He looked like someone who crunched statistics, not someone with strong opinions on NBA basketball. And truth be told, until a few years earlier, he wasn't.

[Rich Levine]

But inspiration and opportunity struck. And once Martin had an idea, he would squeeze it from for every last drop.

[Nick Altschuler]

Martin Manley was a numbers guy. He was tired of conventional thinking in all aspects of life. He watched basketball games across the country obsessively, nightly. He did the math and he saw it clearly. You are doing it wrong.

[Rich Levine]

So he built this case in a book titled Basketball Heaven, in which Martin presented, among other things, the idea that shooting a Decent percentage from 3 could earn you more points than a higher percentage from 2. The math was too obvious to ignore, although to this point, the NBA had done a pretty good job.

[Nick Altschuler]

Until now. Live on national tv.

[Craig Kilborn]

And still ahead, we've got more Inside the NBA.

[Rich Levine]

Inside the NBA.

[Nick Altschuler]

His golden opportunity to present his ideas to the world alongside the sport's biggest names during the All Star Weekend in Houston and catapult the NBA into a new era.

[Rich Levine]

This was his moment in the spotlight, in the center of the Astrodome And

[Nick Altschuler]

Martin couldn't have asked for a better introduction from broadcaster Fred Hickman, host of Inside the NBA.

[Craig Kilborn]

Joining me now is a legend in his own time, and he's got a book to prove it. This is the book Basketball Heaven. It is penned by Martin Manley. Martin Manley is a statistician extraordinaire. He has done for basketball what Bill James has done for baseball. And Martin.

[Nick Altschuler]

Let's wait a second. That thing Hickman just said is really important. It would have mattered a great deal to Martin or anyone else in his shoes. So let's play it again.

[Craig Kilborn]

Martin Manley. Martin Manley is a statistician extraordinaire. He has done for basketball what Bill James has done for baseball.

[Rich Levine]

Bill James, big deal.

[Nick Altschuler]

If you're a sports fan familiar with Bill James, you understand why this is a compliment of the highest order. It's like Manley is making his national TV debut and being knighted at the same time.

[Rich Levine]

If you're unfamiliar with Bill James, allow my friend Nick child of the 1970s to offer this cheat sheet on one of the smartest people in sports.

[Nick Altschuler]

Literally one year before you. In the mid-70s, Bill James was a night watchman at a baked beans factory in Kansas. Tired of the conventional thinking in baseball, in 1977, James Self published his first book, Baseball Abstract, which dug into the numbers in a way no one had before. Today, that former night watchman is considered a sports galileo. The first person to not only challenge conventional thinking, but to argue successfully against ideas that had long been considered facts. The first to take the numbers available to everyone and prove that some statistics were overlooked and others vital to winning hadn't yet even been invented. So he invented them. His new interpretations forever changed strategy. Coaches called in relief pitchers earlier in the game. They figured out maybe intentional walks aren't worth the risk. Today, Bill James place in history is secured. He's met with multiple US Presidents. He was named one of times most influential people. When that mattered, he appeared on the Simpsons as himself. More important, Brad Pitt even made a movie, Moneyball, based on Bill James. Work.

[Rich Levine]

Love Moneyball.

[Nick Altschuler]

So, yeah, Bill James is a big deal. But in 1989, James was still a relative unknown. But not to Martin Manley. In fact, a lot of Martin's thinking about efficiency in basketball was inspired by how Bill James thought about baseball. He was a huge inspiration for a fellow Kansan.

[Rich Levine]

And it was right there in quotes on the COVID of Martin's book that announcer Fred Hickman was holding up in front of a national TV audience. The Bill James of basketball Basketball Heaven

[Nick Altschuler]

was smart, comprehensive and most of all, original. Through Manley's eyes, readers got a peek at what the NBA could be if only they'd follow his advice. Like this bit from the book. The three point shot has increased in popularity every year since the league first adopted it, but it's not as popular as it should be. The three pointer is a big advantage and should be used more effectively by NBA teams.

[Craig Kilborn]

Joining me now is a legend in his own time and he's got a book to prove it.

[Nick Altschuler]

This was a massive opportunity for basketball analytics, but also a huge moment in the life of the man hoping to lead the revolution.

[Craig Kilborn]

This is the book Basketball Heaven. It is penned by Martin Manley.

[Nick Altschuler]

The young man from small town Kansas hoped to change black and white post ups to glorious Technicolor rainbows from way downtown. And perhaps more importantly to Martin, he could prove he was the smartest person in the room.

[Craig Kilborn]

He has done for basketball what Bill James has done done for baseball.

[Rich Levine]

And in this moment, as Fred Hickman introduced him, Martin sat perched between success and failure, stardom and anonymity. And Martin Manley, ever full of dualities, looks ready for both.

[Nick Altschuler]

There's a twinkle in his eyes and a little wiggle to his mustache that can't quite hide the smirk of a man ready to lay down the laws of basketball efficiency as if he had written them on stone tablets.

[Rich Levine]

At the same time, he's a man in a brown blazer and tie with gray slacks, sitting on a brown wooden chair with gray upholstery as if he

[Nick Altschuler]

had called ahead to make sure he dressed for maximum camouflage.

[Rich Levine]

Martin's leaning hard on his elbow like he wants to whisper a secret into Hickman's ear, but also like he might pass out.

[Craig Kilborn]

And Martin, let's talk about it right now. You've watched these teams all season long. Surprises in the Eastern Conference.

[Nick Altschuler]

It's a coin flip. 5050 legacy on the line. Martin gathers himself ready to speak.

[Rich Levine]

On the next episode of Chasing Basketball Heaven.

[Craig Kilborn]

I not only don't want to be the same as everyone else, I don't want to be the same as anyone else. I'm not going to do what everyone else does just because they do it.

[Nick Altschuler]

Our friend Martin gets closer to the truth.

[Craig Kilborn]

Never again would I be in the dark about which player really deserved the headlines.

[Rich Levine]

But can you be a leader if no one follows you?

[Craig Kilborn]

My dream, of course, was and is that not only I could be enlightened, but so could basketball fans everywhere.

[Rich Levine]

Chasing Basketball Heaven is a 30 for 30 podcast produced by ESPN, HyperObject Industries and Meadowlark Media.

[Nick Altschuler]

It was reported and hosted by Nick Altschuler and Rich Levine with Craig Kilborn as the voice of Martin Manley.

[Rich Levine]

Executive producers from HyperObject Industries and Meadowlark Media are Adam McKay, Claire Slaughter and Bradley Campbell. Senior editorial producer of 30 for 30 podcasts is Preeti Varathan. The series senior producer is Raghu Manavalan the series producer is Gus Navarro consulting producer Gary Honig.

[Nick Altschuler]

Story editors were Jamie York and Mack Montanden.

[Rich Levine]

Sound design and mixing by John Delore

[Nick Altschuler]

theme song composed by Alison Layton Brown

[Rich Levine]

and John Delore show art by Brian

[Nick Altschuler]

Lutz Fact checking by Matt Giles and

[Rich Levine]

David Sabino for 30 for 30 and ESPN line producer is Catherine Sankey Associate

[Nick Altschuler]

producer is Isabella Seaman Production assistants are

[Rich Levine]

Diamante McKelvey and Emily Anthony Salas.

[Nick Altschuler]

Producer is Carolyn Hepburn.

[Rich Levine]

Senior producers are Marquise Daisy and Gentry Kirby.

[Nick Altschuler]

Heather Anderson, Marcia Cook, Brian Lockhart and Burke Magnus are executive producers for 30

[Rich Levine]

for 30 rights and clearances by Jennifer Thorp and Cal Griffith.

[Nick Altschuler]

This podcast was developed by Taryn Adalny and Cynthia Parabello.

[Rich Levine]

To listen to more sports series like this one, search 30 for 30podcasts wherever you listen to podcasts or find us at 30for30podcast.com. Thanks for listening.