
A young Midwesterner becomes obsessed with basketball, with an opportunity to make history.
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Martin Manley
Our next guest is Martin Manley, whose
Nick Altshuler
new book, Basketball Heaven.
Martin Manley
I was on TBS as an analyst but was really there for no other reason than to hawk the book. Let's start with the idea of efficiency.
Nick Altshuler
In 1989, Martin Manley appeared on Inside the NBA at All Star Weekend to talk about his new book, Basketball Heaven. Eleven years before his national TV debut, it would have seemed impossible for Martin's life to lead the there.
Rich Levine
Martin turned 25 in 1978, and like a lot of 25 year olds, he was something of an unformed mess. No longer a kid, barely an adult, he was living in a sleepy Kansas suburb, feeling adrift, spending countless hours driving
Nick Altshuler
aimlessly in his Toyota pickup truck. Martin had the gentle musical stylings of a single artist keeping him company.
Martin Manley
Being an obsessive person, James Taylor is about the only artist I listened to with any regularity. It wasn't that I didn't like other songs and other artists, but they weren't James Taylor.
Rich Levine
James Taylor famously sang, you've got a friend. But in Martin, he had an obsessed fan.
Martin Manley
I knew every note and every word of every song. Nobody was as obsessive as I was about listening to the same thing over and over and over and over 100, 200 times.
Rich Levine
Sweet baby James. That is a lot of James Taylor. Martin also had other obsessions beyond the tender tracks of JT.
Martin Manley
It probably wasn't until I was in my mid-20s that I started drinking soda. Sometime shortly after that, it became the only thing I drank. No milk, no juices, no tea, no coffee, no beer, no water, no nothing except pop.
Rich Levine
Hopped up on caffeine and corn syrup. Young Martin believed he was special, that he had certain gifts. He just didn't know yet exactly what they were or how to prove them to the world.
Nick Altshuler
Lord knows he tried.
Martin Manley
Not many people know this about me, but when I was 22 years old, I began memorizing the Bible.
Rich Levine
James, a servant of God.
Martin Manley
I began with the book of James and the first verse. I repeated it all day long with
Rich Levine
the 12 tribes in the dispersion.
Martin Manley
The next day, I learned the second verse.
Rich Levine
Count it all joy, my brethren, when you meet various trials.
Martin Manley
For a year and a half, I memorized a new verse each day. The problem was that I was running out of time, meaning it was harder and harder to recite the entirety of what I'd memorized each day. Because it took so long, it scared me into believing that someday I simply would no longer be able to remember every verse I had learned because I wouldn't have Time to repeat the entirety every day. I'm such an all or nothing type person that it caused me to just stop cold.
Rich Levine
When the obsession became inefficient, Martin stopped obsessing. He lost interest and moved on.
Nick Altshuler
Perhaps Martin's belief in his own specialness had something to do with the fact that he literally saw the world differently than you and me. That's because he had a condition called synesthesia. Martin's brain paired numbers with colors in a way that made logical sense to Martin.
Martin Manley
Most people don't make the connections I make. That being associating colors with a number. For Most everyone, a 3 is a 3. Nothing more, nothing less. However, that's not true for me. A three is yellow. Duh. I can't remember a time when I did not see numbers as colors. And it wasn't until the past few years that I actually realized that nobody else I knew saw it that way.
Rich Levine
It's possible to imagine Martin's arc not extending beyond this life of obscurity. But in 1979, the same year the NBA adopted the three point line, something unexpected happened. Something that would change how Martin saw himself for the rest of his life.
Martin Manley
One day, When I was 25 years old, I saw an IQ test in a magazine called Omni. It was unofficially called the world's hardest IQ test. I went ahead and filled it out and sent it in. Around eight months later, I got a reply in the mail. It said my IQ was 156.
Nick Altshuler
To put this number in perspective, 156 reportedly lands him in the same neighborhood as Warren Buffett, Mark Zuckerberg, and the Google founders. It's been speculated that if Einstein had taken an IQ test, he would have scored 160 within days.
Martin Manley
I had a huge rush of confidence, quit my job and went back to school. I've often thought that when I opened my mail that day, it was the day that changed my life.
Nick Altshuler
Martin had desperately wanted to prove to himself and the world that he was unique, brilliant. Now he had proof of his smarts. He had a number he could hold onto. 1. 5, 6. For Martin. White, red, green. The number arrived in the mail like a bouquet of flowers. From 30 for 30 podcasts. I'm Nick Altshuler.
Rich Levine
I'm Rich Levine. This is Chasing basketball heaven. Episode 2 Shoot your shot.
Nick Altshuler
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Rich Levine
how to get it?
Nick Altshuler
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Chris Tillman
Mmm.
Fred Hickman
So good.
Nick Altshuler
Get your fiber with Quaker Shop Quaker's good source of fiber products at a store near you. So how did Martin Manley, this eccentric dude with no connections or sports media background, go from 20 something unknown to prime time analyst? Rich and I went searching for answers and found Martin's road to Fred Hickman's desk was winding, thrilling, and at times, oddly romantic.
Martin Manley
I first saw Chris in an evening economics class at washburn University in September 1980.
Nick Altshuler
That would be Christine Tillman, Martin's eventual first wife.
Chris Tillman
We went out to dinner on our first date. It was more like a job interview than a date. He loved making lists and checking off completed tasks. I didn't see a list that evening, but I would bet money there was one.
Rich Levine
Chris agreed to answer our questions over email only. So we had an actress read her messages.
Nick Altshuler
We discovered that Martin had prepared extensively for the interview. Well, the date.
Chris Tillman
One, where did I go to church? Two, Had I been married? Three. Did I have children?
Rich Levine
Four.
Chris Tillman
What did I do in my free time? Five. Did I have pets?
Nick Altshuler
Chris told us that on their first date, Martin didn't share much about himself. But in a way we've come to think of as classic Martin, he was able to charm her nonetheless.
Chris Tillman
Almost by accident, he had an old Toyota pickup. At the time, it was Crayola green. The tailgate said YO. The only letters that still had white paint on them. He kept apologizing for that truck. I'm a country kid. Old pickup trucks are part of my life. No need for apologies. This seat wasn't dusty. That's the only thing I might have checked.
Nick Altshuler
Chris was intrigued by Martin's unique qualities. The courtship moved quickly.
Chris Tillman
It wasn't too many weeks before we were meeting family and friends on both sides.
Martin Manley
We were talking marriage within a few months. But you have to recognize that I was 27 and she was 29 at the time. Both of us were ready to settle down.
Nick Altshuler
And so, less than a year after they started dating, Martin and Chris were married. It was 1981, and Martin's future came further into focus as he was close to earning a business degree.
Chris Tillman
He worked very hard and maintained a 4.0 GPA and was on the dean's honor roll. We got right up to that last semester when he could finish.
Rich Levine
But that's when fate intervened, and not for the last time. Bending Martin's arc in a different direct.
Chris Tillman
That's when he met Joe Tongish and Got involved in creating a small satellite dish that could give the user big dish results.
Nick Altshuler
Joe Tonguzh. Friends called him Millionaire Joe.
Rich Levine
He's that buddy who just knows how to make money.
Nick Altshuler
The one who sees the financial opportunities that the rest of us don't.
Rich Levine
A guy who might inspire Martin to drop out of college and take a chance.
Chris Tillman
He was sick of school, wanted to quit. I was disappointed, but decided he could always finish later.
Rich Levine
Spoiler alert. Martin did not Finish later.
Martin Manley
In 1983, my partners and I started the satellite TV company in Topeka. I was primarily responsible for the retail division, but we also had a wholesale and manufacturing division and sold to other dealers all over the country.
Nick Altshuler
In just a few years, Martin and his buddies built their business, foci satellite, from three people to almost 100 employees.
Rich Levine
And the more time he spent studying the satellite industry, the more Martin noticed inefficiencies. And when Martin Manley noticed inefficiencies, he set out to solve them.
Nick Altshuler
One way he did that was by charting his own signal interference maps for more targeted, effective sales. Innovations like this in the growing satellite TV industry helped Martin and Chris land a lovely suburban home by a park with a two car garage and plenty of room for kids should they want them.
Rich Levine
Life was good. Beautiful wife, steady job, house in the burbs. And when he had some spare time in the evenings, Martin put his own satellite TV to good use.
Martin Manley
During those years, I had been able to watch tons of NBA games on satellite, and it turned me into an NBA fan.
Rich Levine
He was already a huge college hoops fan.
Nick Altshuler
That's practically written into the Kansas state constitution.
Rich Levine
But now Martin was exposed to the best basketball on the planet. His dish let him watch NBA games from across the country.
Martin Manley
From the fabulous Forum in Englewood, California, a special edition of NBA.
Chris Tillman
He watched the NBA all season. He taped when he couldn't watch live.
Martin Manley
It was a great period for the league. Magic Johnson and Larry Bird were in their prime. David Stern, the commissioner, had done a great job of marketing, and Michael Jordan was becoming a household name.
Rich Levine
And while Martin was falling in love with the NBA, he also started to notice, surprise, surprise, some inefficiencies.
Martin Manley
It remains a mystery to me how any coach can let the opposing player shoot a three pointer when his team leads by three with just a few seconds to go.
Nick Altshuler
When Martin had looked at the satellite TV industry, he saw a wasted opportunity and was obsessively driven to fix it. Now he looked at the NBA the same way. Consider Larry Bird winds up from three.
Martin Manley
Yes, Larry Bird.
Nick Altshuler
In 1980, six. Martin watched Bird lead the league with 82 threes made. That's less than Brian Taylor hit to lead the league six years earlier. The curve should have been going up. The fact that it wasn't struck Martin as highly inefficient.
Kevin Mahar
I do remember we had a discussion around the three point versus the two point shot.
Rich Levine
That's Kevin Mehar, one of Martin's co workers at the satellite TV business.
Kevin Mahar
He made the argument that the value of the three point shot was if somebody shot a certain percentage that was more valuable than a two point shot and thus a player should take that as opposed to the two point shot.
Rich Levine
Kevin and Martin had an unusual, though very. Martin, meet cute young Kevin was working at Radio Shack when Martin came in one day to buy a new computer. Impressed by the teenage salesman's knowledge and people skills, Martin returned to the store a few days later and he offered Kevin a job.
Kevin Mahar
I mean, it doesn't take much to talk you out of working at Radio Shack.
Nick Altshuler
Kevin became a sales rep for the satellite business and soon found himself on the receiving end of Non Stop.
Rich Levine
Martin takes so many takes.
Nick Altshuler
The two guys hit it off. When they weren't busy disrupting an industry, they'd argue about the game they both loved.
Kevin Mahar
I was a traditionalist. I was, you know, brought up in the shadows of KU basketball and pounded inside and, you know, take the layup whenever you can because that's real basketball.
Nick Altshuler
It was back then, the traditionalist perspective, the perspective of virtually everyone in professional basketball at this point was a three pointer is harder to hit. Which it is. What the math tells you, though, is that a lower percentage from 3 can be worth more than a higher percentage from 2.
Rich Levine
You remember that little math lesson from the last episode, you know, where we proved that 42% from 3 is actually better than 60% from 2?
Nick Altshuler
It may seem weird now, but back then, many people couldn't wrap their heads around this new idea. All they saw was the duality. Did the ball go through the hoop or not? A shot where the ball doesn't go in as often has to be bad, right? Even if the math tells you differently.
Rich Levine
This kind of narrow thinking drove Martin nuts. Box scores pissed him off. In fact, Martin grew so frustrated with what he considered an inefficient way to measure basketball goodness, he began thinking of a new number that went beyond box scores.
Martin Manley
The basketball fan has always been somewhat enamored with points. After all, points are the ultimate measurement. Still, it seems somewhat incomplete. I for one, want to know more, much more.
Rich Levine
And then just as Martin's obsession with basketball started to take off, the satellite industry crashed.
Martin Manley
We downsized and mostly eliminated the retail division.
Nick Altshuler
But Martin didn't see the hit to his business as a setback. Instead, it was an opportunity.
Martin Manley
This was perfect timing for me as I've always been one to operate on three to four year cycles anyway.
Rich Levine
His satellite company had given him what he needed, an income and exposure to the NBA. His spongy brain had soaked up the data. The numbers pointed his arc in a new direction towards a new project.
Nick Altshuler
And the inspiration for Martin's new quest was right there in Kansas. That former night watchman at the baked beans factory, Bill James. Living only 40 miles away near Lawrence,
Martin Manley
I was familiar with Bill James work on baseball. James is considered the father of modern day sabermetrics, the analysis of baseball from a statistical point of view.
Rich Levine
Specifically, James was the first person to effectively make the case that on base percentage is a better stat for measuring a baseball player's value than batting average. We don't care how you get on base as long as you get on base. So it's easy to see why Martin identified with James. While James aimed to devalue batting averages in major league Baseball, Martin wanted to do the same thing with the NBA's fixation on points per game.
Nick Altshuler
By 1986, Bill James had been writing for nearly a decade. He'd published a new edition of Baseball Abstract each year, all through the late 70s and to little fanfare.
Rich Levine
In fact, if not for a man named Dan Okrent, Martin may have never even heard of Bill James.
Dan Okrent
I'll give you the canned history and you can ask me to uncann some of it. As you wish.
Nick Altshuler
Okrent is an editor, biographer and historian.
Rich Levine
He's also the inventor of rotisserie baseball.
Nick Altshuler
And in the late 70s he wrote the first big profile of Bill James.
Dan Okrent
I saw a one inch ad in the Sporting News in I believe the 77 or 78 season. It said Baseball Abstract in something like fascinating way to look at our beloved game. $5 post office box in Lawrence, Kansas. And it came mimeographed and it blew me away. Just I couldn't believe I had never read anything like it. Not only because of the nature of the statistical analysis, but also he's such
Nick Altshuler
a damn good writer, which makes sense. Bill James was an English major. He loves William Faulkner. Okrent felt he was the perfect profile.
Dan Okrent
And I was just beginning my career as a baseball writer, proposed it to an editor at Sports Illustrated. I went out to Lawrence, Kansas. I spent time with Bill, his wife his father looked at the farm he grew up and wrote a piece of.
Nick Altshuler
But according to Okren, Sports Illustrated wouldn't
Dan Okrent
publish it because the fact checker, this is an illustration of what baseball was in those days. She said, well, it says here that Bob Kennedy of the Cubs is a really good general manager, but everybody knows he's a really bad general manager. Well, in fact, Bob Kennedy, through analytics that Bill brought to it, it demonstrated that the trades he made and that the roster decisions he made were very good decisions.
Nick Altshuler
The problem was Bill James was so far ahead of his time that his math was the only thing that could fact check his math. But he was confident in his work, naysayers be damned.
Dan Okrent
He had the courage of his convictions. He knew he was right. Not in every detail, but he knew that he was going the right direction. And he was abashed that people didn't pay attention to him in baseball, you know, that they. That he was dismissed.
Nick Altshuler
A year later, Sports Illustrated finally published the story.
Rich Levine
He does it by the Numbers was the headline. And really, it's hard to convey to anyone out there younger than the Internet just what a big deal it was to be featured in Sports illustrated. Back in 1981, the Internet was barely
Nick Altshuler
a glimmer in Al Gore's eye. Outside the local newspaper, there were very few places to read about sports. After Okrant's glowing feature James book sales skyrocketed. Publishers who had initially balked at James abstracts came running back.
Dan Okrent
Suddenly, you know, he offered $40,000 to build to publish it.
Nick Altshuler
It's about 140,000 in today's money.
Dan Okrent
The fan response was immediate, and the
Rich Levine
publishers saw that by 1985, Baseball Abstract hit the New York Times best seller list, and Bill James became one of the most popular sports writers in the country. He was showing the world how anyone with the right statistical knowledge could understand the game as well as the greatest managers. Here he is sharing that perspective on a panel.
Fred Hickman
The people who favor logic and reason and research are much stronger and much better organized than we were 20 years ago. And the people who think that all
Nick Altshuler
of that is a characteristic of kids
Fred Hickman
they didn't like in high school are clearly in retreat, but they're still very loud and very shrill and quite a bit on tv.
Rich Levine
Martin watched that happen to Bill James. He was inspired. He wanted the exact same success, but in a different sport.
Martin Manley
Baseball is, of course, the ultimate statistical sport, much more so than basketball. However, I grew up a basketball fan first and foremost, and so that was my first love. Consequently, it just made sense that I would try to adapt some statistical analyses that had never been done before to the sport and leave baseball to others.
Nick Altshuler
For all its strategic nuance, baseball is actually a very simple game, a series of simple events. Pitcher throws ball. Batter hits ball. Batter reaches base, Rinse and repeat.
Rich Levine
Basketball analytics, on the other hand, attempts to measure the organized chaos going on around the ball. Point guard passes to the shooting guard. Shooting guard hits a three. But what was the power forward doing?
Nick Altshuler
Maybe he set a good screen that got the shooter open.
Rich Levine
Or maybe he just stood in the corner. But because he's good at threes, the defense had to guard him, creating more space for the shooting guard to hit his three. How do you measure that impact?
Nick Altshuler
Martin wanted to be plucked from obscurity and recognized as a savant by the sporting world. And yeah, having a big pile of money would be great, too.
Rich Levine
Martin wanted to become Bill James. And how did Bill James become Bill James? He wrote a book.
Martin Manley
So when we downsized, meaning the satellite business, I decided to research and write a book called Basketball Heaven.
Rich Levine
Martin gets to work on that book right after the break.
Nick Altshuler
My day kicks off with a refreshing Celsius energy drink. Then straight to the gym, pre K pickup back home to meal prep. Time for my fire station shift. One more Celsius. Gotta keep the lights on when the three alarm hits. I'm ready. Celsius. Live fit. Go grab a cold refreshing Celsius at your local retailer or locate now@celsius.com
Chris Tillman
your
Nick Altshuler
little one grew 3 inches overnight. Adorable. Also expensive. Sell their pint sized pieces on Depop and list them in minutes with no selling fees because somewhere a dad refuses to pay full price for the clothes his kids will outgrow tomorrow.
Rich Levine
And he's ready to buy your son's entire wardrobe right now.
Nick Altshuler
Consider your future growth.
Rich Levine
Bird.
Nick Altshuler
Budget secured. Start selling on Depop, where taste recognizes taste. Payment processing fees and boosting fees still apply. See website for details.
Rich Levine
As Martin Manley embarked on this new project of writing a book, his first move was to find an investor. So he reached out to his good buddy and the principal owner of the
Nick Altshuler
satellite business, millionaire Joe.
Rich Levine
Joe Tongish.
Fred Hickman
He was always interested in what was going on in basketball and his desire to write and his desire for statistics. He kind of cooked up that idea and came to me and said, you know, I think there's a place for a statistical book on basketball. And so we sat down and he told me what his need was.
Rich Levine
He shoots from way downtown.
Fred Hickman
I thought that was reasonable cash.
Rich Levine
Literally. Joe invested roughly $60,000 in Martin's dream.
Nick Altshuler
Next, Martin got permission from his wife.
Chris Tillman
Martin's decision to work on a book full time really wasn't a shock. He thought about it for some time before he decided to make the commitment. He carefully planned his arguments for this proposed major life change. No PowerPoint presentation, but a presentation nonetheless. I was 29 when we got married, well established in my job. We couldn't afford to live the high life, but we could pay the bills on my income. I was confident in his ability, so I told him to go for it. The only way to know how successful an idea will be is to test it.
Rich Levine
The final thing he needed was a true partner in crime. The clay to his step, the mahorn to his lambeer.
Nick Altshuler
Once again, Martin needed Kevin from RadioShack. Kevin Mahar.
Kevin Mahar
The satellite TV thing kind of ran its course and ended, I want to say, my senior year, somewhere into my last semester of college, graduated, got a job, moved to Wichita, Kansas, was working for Solo cup company, driving all over western Kansas. Martin contacted me a little less than a year into that and started talking to me about this project and some of the possibilities that it had.
Nick Altshuler
That included the possibility of making some money. But what really sold Kevin was the free room and board.
Kevin Mahar
I moved in with him, lived with he and his wife for, I don't know, a couple years.
Nick Altshuler
It's a little weird. It's not that weird.
Rich Levine
It was a different time.
Kevin Mahar
People lived in the basement. He had it all cleared out and so his desk was down there. My desk was there. He had bought what at the time was some high tech computer equipment and this desktop publishing software. He says, learn it, because I'm going to be over here writing all this. He wrote this whole thing longhand, all the numbers, all those graphs. It was all done by hand. Nothing went into the computer until I typed it into the computer.
Rich Levine
One inspired passage that Kevin transcribed reads,
Martin Manley
I have tried to develop a whole series of creative statistics which I hope will disclose the many nuances employment implicit in the maze of numbers. It seems strange that no consensus exists for what is the ideal formula for rating NBA players.
Nick Altshuler
Martin was getting closer to landing on his dream stat, a number to replace points per game as the true indicator of basketball talent. A new vision for a globalizing sport born in a Kansas basement.
Rich Levine
But it turns out that writing a book on basketball statistics in the 1980s wasn't easy. It was much more difficult, in fact, than writing a book on baseball. Baseball had annuals books available to fans full of stats for each team. Basketball didn't present stats at the same level. So Martin had to track down a lot of those numbers himself.
Martin Manley
Research in those days meant sending off letters by snail mail, you know, the federal post office. Who knows how long it would be before you got a response. If ever there had been a handful of NBA basketball books written up to that point, but they were more of the encyclopedia type. Fortunately, that's really what I was looking for. The problem was that trying to get my hands on any of them was tough.
Rich Levine
Exhaustingly, tediously tough.
Martin Manley
Between driving some distances to libraries that had one of the books I wanted and sporadic contact with the NBA, along with with using the NBA guide and NBA register put out annually by the sporting news, I was able to get all the NBA stats that had ever been made available up to that point in 1986.
Nick Altshuler
Martin knew that once he had all the numbers, he'd have a full palette of colors and could paint the complete picture of what he wanted people to see.
Rich Levine
But before he could take hold of the paintbrush, he needed someone to program the software on his computer. He had to do that. Back then, a computer didn't do much unless you told it how. So Martin put out an ad for a savvy programmer, and the universe brought him a young man named Todd Weller.
Martin Manley
As I remember, we're sitting there discussing probably details of what he wanted, and he's sitting there eating with a letter opener.
Rich Levine
Martin needed Todd to develop software that could help collect and track NBA stats and to calculate Martin's formulas. But first, Todd had to calculate just how much of a weirdo his new boss might be.
Martin Manley
You know, like a silver letter opener, these brownies, and cutting them off and eating it. And then all of a sudden, he does this where he.
Rich Levine
Which is what?
Martin Manley
He scratches the back of his butt, you know, butt crack or whatever, and then continues to eat with it. And I look at him kind of funny, and he just kind of looks at me like, what? But that was Martin.
Nick Altshuler
What the hell?
Rich Levine
Todd took the job anyway, Unsavory letter opener etiquette and all. Martin now had his crew. A visionary, a salesman, a coder, real Topeka people.
Nick Altshuler
All they needed was a ticking clock and a Vegas casino, and they could have been in a heist movie.
Rich Levine
Kevin from Radio Shack knew all about ticking clocks.
Kevin Mahar
We had a date. We were like, we've got to get it out by this date to have enough time for people to want to buy it before the NBA season starts.
Nick Altshuler
What good is a seasonal, comprehensive analysis? After all, if the season's already started, what fan is going to pay good money to read about his team when their best player already tore his acl.
Rich Levine
Martin gave the book this tagline. The ultimate book for the ultimate fan. And the ultimate stats book would need the ultimate stat. A number that showed which players had the most value but beyond the box score. A number Martin had been thinking about since he first installed a satellite system at home and became obsessed with the game.
Martin Manley
I just couldn't stand to continue seeing players evaluated exclusively by points. I thought a simple but comprehensive formula could be used to evaluate a player's complete game performance. What I came up with was the production rating. Never again would I be in the dark about which player really deserved the headlines. My dream, of course, was and is that not only could I be enlightened, but so could basketball fans everywhere.
Rich Levine
Production rating. This was Martin's number. Thanks to Bill James, baseball's general managers changed the value of on base percentage. Could production rating change basketball?
Martin Manley
The problem with points as the primary indicator of value is of course, because it is an oversimplified measurement. For example, who's better? Dale Ellis, 25.8 points per per game, or Magic Johnson, 19.6 points per game? We all know the answer to that question. Ellis is obviously good, but he's no Magic. Therefore, if Seattle were to play Los Angeles, it would be inadequate to look at Ellis scoring 26 points while Magic scored 20 and make any determination about who had the better game. Magic had seven more assists, two more rebounds, and one more steal. That changes the immediate impression given by the box scorer.
Rich Levine
Production rating squeezes all that other stuff, the good and the bad, into one tidy and.
Nick Altshuler
Are you about to drop the E word?
Rich Levine
Oh, you know I am. One tidy and efficient calculation.
Martin Manley
It won't surprise anybody to know that basketball statistical data goes miles beyond production rating. But just use the following formula every time you peruse a box score and you'll know which player won the game for his team, even if the newspaper doesn't tell you. Points plus rebounds plus assists plus blocks
Rich Levine
plus steals, that's all the good stuff.
Martin Manley
Minus turnovers plus missed field goals plus missed free throws, that's all the bad stuff equals credits. Credits for season divided by games equals credits per game equals production rating.
Rich Levine
Basically, you add up the positive stats, then subtract the sum of the negatives.
Martin Manley
An example would be Michael Jordan during 1988. By applying the formula, he earned 2,874 credits. Since he played in 82 games, he had a production rating of 35.05.
Rich Levine
While Martin and his crew hammered Away on basketball heaven, a Florida based sports writer named Dave Hearon was working on a book of his own. Heeron had a stats and basketball pedigree. He'd spent a year in the 60s as the statistician for the New York Knicks. And he created what is now recognized as basketball's first advanced stats. Tendex.
Nick Altshuler
Like production rating, Tendex calculates a player's efficiency by adding and subtracting a series of values. But that sum is then divided by the player's time on the court and multiplied by the pace of the game.
Martin Manley
The aesthetic flaws are obvious. Charles Barkley ranked number one with the rating of 826. I don't mean to sound critical, oh sure, Martin, but what is 826? How does it fit into our pre existing ideas of what an excellent rating means? Again, Magic Johnson had a production rating of 31.79. It follows very closely the parameters of scoring 30 plus per game is superstar.
Rich Levine
Martin believed that basketball's definitive efficiency formula should be something that any fan could easily calculate and understand.
Martin Manley
Other formulas which end up with numbers that don't fit into pre existing categories in our thinking just cannot be expected to catch on with the general public.
Rich Levine
The plan was now in Beat Hearin to publication and get Basketball Heaven into the world before the 1987 season. To do that, Martin changed his life in ways that might seem strange. But to those who knew him, this was just Martin being Martin.
Martin Manley
I started skipping lunch because it meant taking a break and I didn't want no stinking breaks. I never ate breakfast. So it turned into a lifestyle whereby I would eat once a day supper.
Kevin Mahar
What was kind of interesting was Martin would work 48 hours straight and then he would go to bed for 10 hours, maybe 12, and then get up and do it all over again.
Rich Levine
Kevin eventually got in on the action as well.
Kevin Mahar
I didn't work that schedule until we got down to the end where we were kind of on a deadline. And then I pushed myself to do it. I'd say I did it for maybe a month. I pushed myself to meet his commitment at the end, kind of see if
Nick Altshuler
I could do it. When he finally had the manuscript in hand, Martin made a pilgrimage to see the stats guru himself, Bill James. Martin wanted the blessing of the guy who had inspired him and he also wanted a cover quote.
Kevin Mahar
Martin was extremely excited about it because again, Bill James was the, he was the king of this genre, you know, and had done it in the baseball stuff. And having him right there in Lawrence was I think, even more special.
Chris Tillman
For.
Rich Levine
For Martin, a quote from Bill James on the COVID of Basketball Heaven would give the book legitimacy, validation. For Martin, going to see James was a huge moment, a meeting of two great math minds. This was Einstein meeting Neils bore Northeast Kansas style.
Nick Altshuler
Was he nervous?
Kevin Mahar
Martin? Yeah.
Rich Levine
Nah, he. He was just so sure of himself. No matter.
Kevin Mahar
Martin's pretty sure of him. Yeah.
Martin Manley
When I met with Bill after the first book had been completed, he offered to put me in touch with his agent in New York City. Ultimately, she was able to get a book deal with Doubleday, and the rest is history.
Rich Levine
Martin even returned home with a money quote from Bill James for the COVID of his book.
Nick Altshuler
Basketball Heaven is thorough, fresh, and occasionally brilliant. Manley's systematic analysis of basketball from the time of George Mikan to the present is unlike anything I've ever seen about the sport. His research is massive, his writing lucid, and his approach novel.
Rich Levine
Arne's book now had the instant credibility he desired. And it was packed with stats and theories to keep fans busy for an entire season. He was on the fast track. The basketball world would simply have to recognize his genius.
Nick Altshuler
By February of 1989, Martin had written two editions of basketball Heaven. A lot of work, but that's the game with almanacs. After a year, the math is old. Every season a new version with updated numbers, ideas and predictions.
Rich Levine
To this point, sales were slow. But that's also the game here. This kind of thing takes time. Take Bill James. He sold fewer than 350 total copies of his first two editions.
Nick Altshuler
And Martin wanted Basketball Heaven to be a kind of metaphysical breakthrough while also being a money printing bestseller. Or as he writes in his book,
Martin Manley
I don't want to be thought of as just a number cruncher, but rather a number creator. That is, one who creates a measurement or rating which otherwise would not have existed. One who discovers an important, previously concealed bit of information that otherwise could not have been appreciated.
Rich Levine
Though the public hadn't yet embraced Basketball Heaven, Martin had made friends in high places. The second edition received an endorsement from
Nick Altshuler
Commissioner David Stern, the influential, intimidating boss of the NBA.
Rich Levine
And I can just read this for you right here. What the commissioner wrote. Because of its original perspective, Basketball Heaven provides statistical insights and food for thought which will enhance the enjoyment of the game for even the most devoted NBA fan.
Nick Altshuler
That's the NBA equivalent of being made.
Rich Levine
And now he just had to convince the rest of the world, which was
Nick Altshuler
what he had a chance to do at the 1989 NBA All Star Weekend in Houston.
Fred Hickman
We are now inside a sold out Astrodome.
Nick Altshuler
His brown suit was camouflaged against the TBS set. His mustache twitched above his smirk. Martin was sitting with Fred Hickman. He looked both nervous and excited, cocky even. He'd done his homework. He was gonna ace the test, and when he did, the game would change forever.
Fred Hickman
Joining me now is a legend in his own time, and he's got a book to prove it. This is the book, Basketball Heaven. It is penned by Martin Manley. Martin Manley is a statistician extraordinaire. He has done for basketball what Bill James has done for baseball.
Rich Levine
Martin's dream was now his new reality, and Fred Hickman was running things like a seasoned pro, a broadcasting point guard in a custom suit, and Martin let's
Fred Hickman
talk about it right now. You've watched these teams all season long. Surprises in the Eastern Conference Cleveland because they're so good in the for some
Rich Levine
context here at the 1989 All Star break, the Cleveland Cavaliers were the talk of the Eastern Conference, a lot like the 2425 Cavs. They were the young upstarts running everyone off the court.
Nick Altshuler
The Pacers, meanwhile, were a laughingstock. 11 and 35 and already on their fourth. Yes, their fourth head coach of the season.
Fred Hickman
Surprises in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland because they're so good. Indiana because they're so bad. Well, definitely those two are true. Along with those, naturally, Milwaukee and Philadelphia both overachieved and this year, somewhat Milwaukee more so. But they've both done a tremendous job, far better than I think anybody thought they would.
Rich Levine
Honestly, not the worst start. A nice shout out to the Bucks, who had won 19 of 24 games heading into the All Star break. Martin's just getting loose. Let's see where he went with it.
Fred Hickman
Aren't too many other teams other than Indiana that have done that much worse than anybody bought. But then there aren't that many more losses yet to be given out besides what Indiana's success.
Rich Levine
So, oh, no, Martin, it's.
Nick Altshuler
It's hard to parse that one.
Rich Levine
There aren't that many more losses yet to be given out. Besides, what Indiana's accomplished is a hell of a way to say the Pacers stink.
Nick Altshuler
The words, they just kind of stream out of him like air from a leaking balloon.
Rich Levine
I realize it's Martin's first time on tv, but he was incredibly inefficient.
Nick Altshuler
Martin might not have his touch, but Hickman throws the ball right back to him.
Fred Hickman
What about the Chicago Bulls, Michael and the rest of the guys? What are they ever going to be able to do to give this a good, cohesive team type of look.
Rich Levine
A little more Context Through Michael Jordan's first four seasons, the Bulls were a combined 12 games under.500 and they won just a single playoff series. So it might sound weird now, but asking back then if Jordan and the Bulls could ever get it together was not an uncommon question, which gave Martin
Nick Altshuler
a chance to say something out of the ordinary. And here's the thing. Martin had written a deep preview of the Bulls 89 season with compelling arguments and cogent analysis. From the second edition of Basketball Heaven,
Martin Manley
some argue that Jordan tries to do too much. Nevertheless, Chicago was 2714 when Michael scored in the 30s, 104 when he scored in the 40s and 31 in the 50s. Can anyone seriously suggest they would rather he score in the 20s where Chicago's record was 10 and 13?
Nick Altshuler
That is an original, interesting opinion because while critics claim that young Michael Jordan was too focused on scoring, Martin's numbers show that the fewer points he scored, the worse the Bulls did.
Rich Levine
But wait, he's got more. Martin closes out the preview in his book with a stat illustrating what happens when the young Jordan involves his teammates.
Martin Manley
When any of the two of the four Grant, Pippen, Paxton and Sellers scored in double figures, Chicago was 35 11. When less than 2 hit that magic mark, the team was only 15 and 21.
Rich Levine
The Bulls win when Michael Jordan scores a lot, but they're even better when his teammates chip in. So Jordan should trust his teammates to sink some shots.
Nick Altshuler
This is an informed take and would have been perfect, prophetic even to say in 1989.
Rich Levine
Perhaps Martin could have even just said the Bulls need to play more efficiently.
Nick Altshuler
Always a great time to pull out the E word. Martin could have said any of this stuff and essentially predicted the future.
Fred Hickman
What about the Chicago Bulls, Michael and the rest of the guys? What are they ever going to be able to do to give this a good cohesive team type of look?
Rich Levine
Instead, he said this.
Fred Hickman
It's difficult to say. Obviously, when you've got a player like a Michael Jordan, it's extremely difficult to think what kind of P you put with him to make it work out perfectly with Magic or with Bird. For some reason or another, they had that ability to make all those other players fit into a cohesive unit. But Jordan, they're trying to fit the pieces in rather than them fitting in naturally.
Rich Levine
It's difficult to say, yeah, maybe for a non genius. Martin had already solved the Jordan problem in his book, but now with the world watching, he went with an ice cold non answer, hinting that for Some vague reason Jordan's Bulls weren't as good as Bird Celtics or Magic's Lakers.
Nick Altshuler
If you called into your sports radio station with that opinion, they would hang up.
Fred Hickman
Okay, Martin, that takes care of the.
Rich Levine
After a video montage, Martin and Hickman share an uninspiring back and forth about the Western Conference.
Fred Hickman
Phoenix Suns, the Golden State Warriors.
Nick Altshuler
Right.
Fred Hickman
Well, those are the two teams I think that are.
Nick Altshuler
And then at the end of the segment, Martin does get one last shot. And Rich, I think this is the part that bothers you the most.
Rich Levine
I just think it perfectly sums up where this life altering opportunity just fell flat.
Fred Hickman
Give me a quick prediction, William. Who's going to be in the NBA Finals? NBA Finals. Lakers versus Pistons.
Rich Levine
It's just the most obvious take to take.
Nick Altshuler
The blandest, coldest take. You don't have to give me something to take that take.
Rich Levine
The Lakers had beat the Pistons the year before in the 1988 finals. Both teams were dominated again so far in 89. This prediction was like picking only number one seeds in your final four bracket. You might end up being right, but right or wrong, it's lame.
Fred Hickman
Okay, we'll hold you to that. I'm really going all the way up.
Rich Levine
And for what it's worth, the Lakers and Pistons did play again in the 89 finals. So Martin was right.
Nick Altshuler
Yes. And water everywhere continued to be wet.
Rich Levine
For Martin, that was always the most important thing. Being right. But to sell books, you have to show people that you know something that they don't.
Nick Altshuler
You don't sell the sabermetrics, you sell the sizzle. It's like gravity. It's not impressive for you to say what comes up must come down. The impressive part is showing your math that proves it. Martin had a chance to do that,
Rich Levine
to take a big shot. Something like, yeah, Fred, it'll be Lakers and Pistons once again. But this time Detroit will have LA's number. You heard it here first. Oh, did you know that the Pistons are shooting twice as many three pointers as they did last year? They get it, Fred. The future is now. The Pistons win.
Nick Altshuler
Instead, Martin simply went with the chalk. Matchup. He didn't even guess a winner. And then the interview ended.
Fred Hickman
Martin Manley, who was the author of the great publication Basketball Heaven, you got to go out and pick it up. It's terrific. We're glad that he joined us. We hope you will come back with us.
Rich Levine
Live on national television. Martin never once mentioned Basketball Heaven or
Nick Altshuler
production rating or three pointers or even the word efficiency. It's one thing if Martin failed as Martin, if he was too weird or if he used too many numbers, if
Rich Levine
he'd gone up there and rattled off the first two books of the Bible,
Nick Altshuler
yeah, I would watch that. But Martin wasn't himself up there. He was the kind of cookie cutter NBA analyst that he would have scoffed at from his basement.
Rich Levine
He stayed in Houston for the rest of the weekend and watched as the game ended with with a 41 year old Kareem Abdul Jabbar hitting his signature shot.
Martin Manley
Wonderful. He hit the sky hook.
Nick Altshuler
Yep, the big tall man scored, but not before the first two entry passes were stolen, leading to two highlight buckets from Michael Jordan who grabbed the league's torch as the game leapt into the 9th 90s.
Rich Levine
Game is over in the west, moved out to a big early lead, were threatened and then came back and put him away. Martin left Houston without making a name for himself.
Nick Altshuler
He was boring, uninspired. He was perhaps his greatest fear. He was average.
Martin Manley
There is zero chance that I'm going to wake up tomorrow or anytime soon and decide that I'm no longer motivated to be different. I not only don't want to be the same as everyone else, I don't want to be the same as anyone else.
Rich Levine
He never appeared on national TV again. As far as anyone knew, Martin Manley disappeared. Gone but not entirely forgotten. Because while he failed on television and returned home, his book continued to travel,
Nick Altshuler
ending up in the hands of someone who would be a part of the revolution that would change the game forever. The UW library had a copy of it when I was a student at
Martin Manley
the University of Washington.
Rich Levine
It was definitely intriguing to me. Next time on Chasing Basketball Heaven.
Martin Manley
I realized I knew something at that
Nick Altshuler
moment that no one else in the world the field of basketball analytics grows. But Martin's life takes another turn.
Martin Manley
Chris and I drifted apart. I take 100% of the blame and
Rich Levine
his obsession with efficiency pushes him in a startling new direction.
Martin Manley
I decided I wanted to have one of the most organized goodbyes in history and I think I will be successful.
Nick Altshuler
Chasing Basketball Heaven is a 30 for 30 podcast produced by ESPN, HyperObject Industries and Meadowlark Media.
Rich Levine
It was reported and hosted by Nick Elschuler and Rich Levine with Craig Kilborn as the voice of Martin Manley.
Nick Altshuler
Executive producers from HyperObject Industries and Meadowlark Media are Adam McKay, Claire Slaughter and Bradley Campbell.
Rich Levine
Senior editorial producer of 30 for 30 podcasts is Preeti Varathan. The series senior producer is Raghu Manavalan. Our series producer was Gus Navarro.
Nick Altshuler
Consulting producer was Gary Honig.
Rich Levine
Story editors were Jamie York and Mack Montanden.
Nick Altshuler
Sound design and mixing by John Delore
Rich Levine
Theme song composed by Allison Layton Brown and John Delore.
Nick Altshuler
Show art by Brian Lutz.
Rich Levine
Becca Lish is the voice of Chris Tillman.
Nick Altshuler
Fact checking by Matt Giles and David
Rich Levine
Sabino for 30 for 30 and ESPN line producer is Katherine Sanke.
Nick Altshuler
Associate producer is Isabella Seaman.
Rich Levine
Production assistants are Diamante McKelvey and Anthony Salas.
Nick Altshuler
Producer is Carolyn Hepburn.
Rich Levine
Senior producers are Marquise, Daisy and Gentry Kirby.
Nick Altshuler
Heather Anderson, Marcia Cook, Brian Lockhart and Burke Magnus are executive producers for 30
Rich Levine
for 30 rights and clearances by Jennifer Thorpe and Cal Griffith.
Nick Altshuler
This podcast was developed by Tara Nadalny and Cynthia Parabell.
Rich Levine
To listen to more sports series like this one, search 30 for 30 podcasts wherever you listen to podcasts or find us at 3430podcast.com thanks for listening.
Release Date: July 22, 2025
Host(s): Nick Altshuler, Rich Levine
Featured Voices: Martin Manley, Chris Tillman, Kevin Mahar, Dan Okrent, Fred Hickman
This episode dives into the fascinating journey of Martin Manley—a quirky, mathematically gifted Kansan whose obsession with efficiency and numbers led him to challenge the very fundamentals of basketball analysis. Through interviews, archival audio, and narrative storytelling, hosts Nick Altshuler and Rich Levine guide listeners through Manley’s personal history and his relentless quest to create a new way of understanding basketball greatness—culminating in his creation of the “production rating,” his answer to baseball’s sabermetrics. The episode weaves together themes of obsession, innovation, personal reinvention, and the struggle to stand out in the sports world.
Romantic & Business Detours
Converging Passions: Satellite TV Meets NBA Fandom
Inspired by Bill James & The Sabermetric Revolution
Drafting ‘Basketball Heaven’
Defining the Stat
Race to Publish First
All-In Work Ethic
Bill James’s Blessing
Publishing Struggles & Recognition
National TV Shot: 1989 NBA All-Star Weekend
On Obsession (01:15):
“Nobody was as obsessive as I was about listening to the same thing over and over and over and over 100, 200 times.”
— Martin Manley
On Early Influences (03:25):
“A three is yellow. Duh.”
— Martin Manley, on his synesthesia
On Game-Changing Confidence (04:52):
“I’ve often thought that when I opened my mail that day, it was the day that changed my life.”
— Martin Manley (on getting his IQ results)
On Basketball Inefficiency (11:21):
“It remains a mystery to me how any coach can let the opposing player shoot a three pointer when his team leads by three with just a few seconds to go.”
— Martin Manley
On Baseball’s Analytics Pioneer (18:13):
“He had the courage of his convictions. He knew he was right ... and he was abashed that people didn’t pay attention to him in baseball.”
— Dan Okrent (on Bill James)
On His Stat (30:03):
“I thought a simple but comprehensive formula could be used to evaluate a player’s complete game performance. What I came up with was the production rating.”
— Martin Manley
On the All-Star TV Failure (43:05):
“It’s difficult to say. Obviously, when you’ve got a player like a Michael Jordan, it’s extremely difficult to think what kind of P you put with him to make it work out perfectly ...”
— Martin Manley (offering a generic answer on TV)
On Missed Opportunities (46:11):
“He was the kind of cookie-cutter NBA analyst that he would have scoffed at from his basement.”
— Rich Levine
On Legacy (48:09):
“His book continued to travel, ending up in the hands of someone who would be a part of the revolution that would change the game forever.”
— Nick Altshuler
Episode 2 of Chasing Basketball Heaven chronicles Martin Manley’s relentless pursuit to revolutionize basketball statistics, driven by obsession, innovation, and personal conviction. Despite setbacks—including a flat national TV debut—Manley’s ideas and his self-made “production rating” would quietly help pave the way for the rise of modern basketball analytics. The episode is a moving, witty, and at times poignant reminder of how outsiders and obsessives push sports—and society—forward, even if they never become household names.