30 for 30 Podcasts

Chasing Basketball Heaven - Episode 2: Shoot Your Shot

Release Date: July 22, 2025
Host(s): Nick Altshuler, Rich Levine
Featured Voices: Martin Manley, Chris Tillman, Kevin Mahar, Dan Okrent, Fred Hickman

Overview

This episode dives into the fascinating journey of Martin Manley—a quirky, mathematically gifted Kansan whose obsession with efficiency and numbers led him to challenge the very fundamentals of basketball analysis. Through interviews, archival audio, and narrative storytelling, hosts Nick Altshuler and Rich Levine guide listeners through Manley’s personal history and his relentless quest to create a new way of understanding basketball greatness—culminating in his creation of the “production rating,” his answer to baseball’s sabermetrics. The episode weaves together themes of obsession, innovation, personal reinvention, and the struggle to stand out in the sports world.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Early Life & Obsessions

• Young Martin: Lost and Obsessive
  • At 25, Martin was "something of an unformed mess," living in suburban Kansas, obsessively listening to James Taylor ([00:32]-[00:56]).
  • "Nobody was as obsessive as I was about listening to the same thing over and over and over and over 100, 200 times." — Martin Manley ([01:15])
  • Other obsessions: only drank soda ("no milk, no juices, no tea... just pop" [01:37]), and attempted to memorize the Bible ([02:08]-[03:00]).
  • Stopped Bible memorization when it became "inefficient."

Unique Perspective: Synesthesia and Intelligence

• Seeing the World Differently
  • Martin has synesthesia: He associates numbers with colors. "A three is yellow. Duh." ([03:25])
• Turning Point: The IQ Test
  • Took a famously difficult IQ test from Omni Magazine, scored 156 ([04:10]-[04:52]).
  • "I've often thought that when I opened my mail that day, it was the day that changed my life." — Martin Manley ([04:52])

Path to Basketball Analytics Pioneer

• Romantic & Business Detours

  • Met future wife Chris Tillman through a list-driven, interview-style first date ([06:41]-[07:41]).
  • Dropped out before finishing his business degree to start a satellite TV business with "Millionaire Joe" ([08:53]-[09:25]).
  • The business grew quickly; Martin thrived on identifying inefficiencies in sales strategies ([09:41]-[10:17]).

• Converging Passions: Satellite TV Meets NBA Fandom

  • Exposure to out-of-market NBA games fostered a deeper love for the pro game ([10:29]-[10:55]).
  • Became frustrated by the inefficiency of how basketball value was measured, particularly the slow adoption of the three-point shot and the simplistic focus on “points per game” ([11:21]-[14:22]).
  • "It remains a mystery to me how any coach can let the opposing player shoot a three pointer when his team leads by three with just a few seconds to go." — Martin Manley ([11:21])

The Quest for a New Stat

• Inspired by Bill James & The Sabermetric Revolution

  • Idolized Bill James, father of modern baseball analytics ([15:12]-[16:14]).
  • "He had the courage of his convictions. He knew he was right. ... He was abashed that people didn't pay attention to him in baseball." — Dan Okrent ([18:13])

• Drafting ‘Basketball Heaven’

  • Martin leaves satellite business, secures funding and spousal approval to pursue his book full-time ([22:47]-[24:16]).
  • Assembles a “heist-movie” team: Kevin Mahar (typist and confidant), Todd Weller (programmer), and support from his wife and business partners ([24:24]-[29:11]).
  • Challenging 1980s data collection: Manually gathers stats from libraries, NBA guides, and the few existing encyclopedias ([26:47]-[27:37]).
  • "Research in those days meant sending off letters by snail mail, you know, the federal post office. Who knows how long it would be before you got a response. If ever." — Martin Manley ([26:47])

The Birth of “Production Rating”

• Defining the Stat

  • Martin’s goal: Replace points per game with a comprehensive, easy-to-calculate measure he called the “production rating” ([30:03]-[30:35]).
  • Formula: (Points + Rebounds + Assists + Blocks + Steals) – (Turnovers + Missed FGs + Missed FTs)
    • "A simple but comprehensive formula could be used to evaluate a player's complete game performance. What I came up with was the production rating." — Martin Manley ([30:03])
  • Emphasized clarity and relatability—wanted stats to make sense intuitively, much like traditional scoring averages ([33:08]-[33:47]).

• Race to Publish First

  • Other advanced stats, like Dave Heeren’s Tendex, hit the scene at the same time, sparking Martin’s competitive drive ([32:33]-[33:39]).
  • “The aesthetic flaws are obvious. ... What is 826? ... Magic Johnson had a production rating of 31.79. It follows very closely the parameters of scoring 30 plus per game is superstar.” — Martin Manley ([33:08])

• All-In Work Ethic

  • Martin and Kevin push themselves on a brutal work schedule—48 hours awake, sleeping 10-12 hours, then repeating ([34:28]-[35:00]).

• Bill James’s Blessing

  • Visits Bill James for mentorship and, crucially, a cover quote
    • "Basketball Heaven is thorough, fresh, and occasionally brilliant. Manley's systematic analysis of basketball ... is unlike anything I've ever seen about the sport." — Bill James (quoted by Nick Altshuler, [36:22])

High Hopes, Low Sales, and a Shot at the Big Time

• Publishing Struggles & Recognition

  • Despite James’s praise and later an endorsement from NBA Commissioner David Stern ("provides statistical insights and food for thought" [38:03]), sales are initially slow ([37:10]-[37:21]).

• National TV Shot: 1989 NBA All-Star Weekend

  • Martin appears beside Fred Hickman on TBS at the ’89 All-Star Game ([38:31]-[44:48]).
  • Fails to mention his book or advanced stats, offering generic, cautious takes on teams and playoff predictions.
    • “It’s difficult to say. Obviously, when you’ve got a player like a Michael Jordan, it’s extremely difficult to think what kind of P you put with him to make it work out perfectly ...” — Martin Manley ([43:05])
  • Hosts express frustration that Martin hides his uniqueness—“He was the kind of cookie-cutter NBA analyst that he would have scoffed at from his basement.” — Rich Levine ([46:39])

Legacy & Foreshadowing

• Impact Beyond TV
  • Though his moment of fame fizzled, "his book continued to travel, ending up in the hands of someone who would be a part of the revolution that would change the game forever." — Nick Altshuler ([48:09])
• Personal Downturn
  • Preview of next episode: Martin’s marriage fractures as his obsession deepens; his need for efficiency starts pointing toward a “startling new direction” ([48:35]-[48:44]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Obsession (01:15):
  “Nobody was as obsessive as I was about listening to the same thing over and over and over and over 100, 200 times.”
  — Martin Manley

• On Early Influences (03:25):
  “A three is yellow. Duh.”
  — Martin Manley, on his synesthesia

• On Game-Changing Confidence (04:52):
  “I’ve often thought that when I opened my mail that day, it was the day that changed my life.”
  — Martin Manley (on getting his IQ results)

• On Basketball Inefficiency (11:21):
  “It remains a mystery to me how any coach can let the opposing player shoot a three pointer when his team leads by three with just a few seconds to go.”
  — Martin Manley

• On Baseball’s Analytics Pioneer (18:13):
  “He had the courage of his convictions. He knew he was right ... and he was abashed that people didn’t pay attention to him in baseball.”
  — Dan Okrent (on Bill James)

• On His Stat (30:03):
  “I thought a simple but comprehensive formula could be used to evaluate a player’s complete game performance. What I came up with was the production rating.”
  — Martin Manley

• On the All-Star TV Failure (43:05):
  “It’s difficult to say. Obviously, when you’ve got a player like a Michael Jordan, it’s extremely difficult to think what kind of P you put with him to make it work out perfectly ...”
  — Martin Manley (offering a generic answer on TV)

• On Missed Opportunities (46:11):
  “He was the kind of cookie-cutter NBA analyst that he would have scoffed at from his basement.”
  — Rich Levine

• On Legacy (48:09):
  “His book continued to travel, ending up in the hands of someone who would be a part of the revolution that would change the game forever.”
  — Nick Altshuler

Important Timestamps

• Martin’s Life & Early Obsessions: [00:32]–[03:08]
• Synesthesia & The IQ Test: [03:08]–[04:52]
• Marriage/Business Origins: [06:41]–[09:49]
• NBA Obsession & Early Analytics: [10:29]–[14:22]
• Bill James Influence: [15:12]–[19:39]
• Founding the Basketball Analytics Project: [22:47]–[27:37]
• Creation of “Production Rating”: [30:03]–[31:56]
• Formula Example (Michael Jordan): [32:12]–[32:33]
• Comparing to Competing Stats: [32:33]–[34:15]
• TV Appearance & Outcome: [38:31]–[47:10]
• Foreshadowing Next Episode: [48:09]–[48:44]

Tone & Narration Style

• Candid, humorous, a bit self-deprecating: The hosts tease Martin’s quirks (“the words, they just kind of stream out of him like air from a leaking balloon” – [40:37]), recognize both his brilliance and his missed chances, and offer context for how unusual and important his ideas were.
• Reflective and investigative: The narrative ties in broader themes of innovation, missed opportunities, and how legacies evolve beyond public recognition.

Takeaway

Episode 2 of Chasing Basketball Heaven chronicles Martin Manley’s relentless pursuit to revolutionize basketball statistics, driven by obsession, innovation, and personal conviction. Despite setbacks—including a flat national TV debut—Manley’s ideas and his self-made “production rating” would quietly help pave the way for the rise of modern basketball analytics. The episode is a moving, witty, and at times poignant reminder of how outsiders and obsessives push sports—and society—forward, even if they never become household names.