Are We on the Brink of WW3? :5CAST w/ Andrew Callaghan (#9) ft. James Gelvin

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Are We on the Brink of WW3?" 5CAST w/ Andrew Callaghan (#9) ft. James Gelvin Release Date: July 1, 2025

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Introduction

In this gripping episode of 5CAST, host Andrew Callaghan delves deep into the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, probing whether the world teeters on the edge of a third World War. Joined by James Gelvin, a renowned Professor of Middle Eastern Studies, the discussion navigates through geopolitical intricacies, historical contexts, and the palpable anxiety surrounding nuclear proliferation.

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Escalation of the Israel-Iran Conflict

The episode opens with a tense overview of recent events that have heightened fears of a potential global conflict. Andrew Callaghan sets the stage by highlighting the mutual accusations between Israel and Iran over ceasefire violations:

Andrew Callaghan [00:16]: "People are throwing around these big words like nuclear holocaust and geopolitical tension. And last Friday the term World War 3 was the highest search phrase on Google behind least likely mid-sized US city to get bombed by Iran..."

Tucker Carlson and James Gelvin exchange heated remarks about political figures and ideologies, setting a contentious tone early in the discussion.

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Internal US Political Struggles: MAGA Movement Splintering

Callaghan discusses the internal dynamics within the MAGA movement, noting a significant splintering as supporters grapple with Trump's policies:

Andrew Callaghan [01:04]: "This resulted in Tucker Carlson's first dope moment in history when he cooked Cancun Ted Cruz for being unable to provide a rough population estimate of Iran."

The conversation underscores the frustration among Americans who feel Trump's "America First" promise is undermined by foreign interventions on behalf of Israel.

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On-the-Ground Reporting: Tel Aviv Pride Parade Canceled

A poignant segment features Agathe Schwartz, Channel 5’s Middle Eastern correspondent, reporting from Tel Aviv, where the annual Pride Parade was abruptly canceled due to missile strikes:

Agathe Schwartz [10:47]: "The much anticipated Tel Aviv Pride Parade was canceled as Israel braces for a potential retaliatory strike from Iran."

Local residents express their resilience and disappointment, painting a vivid picture of life under constant threat:

Tel Aviv Local [10:54]: "This is how life is here. Good or bad, you get used to."

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Expert Analysis with Professor James Gelvin

The core of the episode features an in-depth interview with Professor James Gelvin, who provides historical context and expert insights into the Iran-Israel tensions and the broader implications for global peace.

James Gelvin [07:05]: "Do you think that, you know, you can imagine a nuclear bomb being dropped anywhere in the world in the next 20 or 30 years?"

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Discussion on Nuclear Weapons and Global Implications

The dialogue intensifies as Gelvin and Carlson explore the dire consequences of nuclear proliferation. Topics include the technical challenges of weaponizing uranium and the strategic motivations behind Iran's and Israel's nuclear ambitions.

Tucker Carlson [22:17]: "Their biggest fear is Iran developing nuclear weapons capacity...It ranges now from three years to five years in terms of lead time for Iran to be able to do it."

The conversation underscores the precarious balance of power and the thin line separating deterrence from annihilation.

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Historical Context: Iran's Past and the Islamic Revolution

Gelvin recounts the Islamic Revolution of 1978-1979, detailing the overthrow of the Shah and the establishment of the current regime:

James Gelvin [34:50]: "Is Persian the the same thing as Iran?"

Tucker Carlson [35:21]: "Yes. As a matter of fact, the Shah of Iran, the guy who actually set up the modern Iranian state in the 1920s, was deposed by the British in the 1940s for being pro Axis."

The discussion highlights how historical grievances and regime changes have shaped the current hostility between Iran and the West.

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Trump's Role and US Middle East Policy

A critical analysis is provided on former President Donald Trump's influence over US Middle East policy, emphasizing his alignment with Benjamin Netanyahu and Mohammed bin Salman:

Tucker Carlson [28:26]: "Netanyahu convinced Trump that Israel is going to win this one. So you want to get on the winning side."

The conversation critiques the lack of strategic foresight in American interventions and the perpetuation of conflicts driven by political ambitions.

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Potential for World War III

As tensions mount, the episode confronts the terrifying possibility of a global conflict. Gelvin remains cautiously optimistic:

James Gelvin [26:22]: "Years. 20 or 30 years is a long way out. So I have no idea whether, say five years, five years. I doubt that that's going to happen."

However, the precarious nature of international relations, especially with nuclear-armed states, keeps the fear of WW3 alive.

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Conclusion: A Fragile Ceasefire and Uncertain Future

The episode concludes with an update on the fragile ceasefire brokered by Donald Trump just after the main discussion:

Donald Trump [68:43]: "The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran is holding for its third straight day following the deadly 12-day conflict between the two countries."

Despite the temporary calm, the underlying tensions suggest that peace remains elusive, and the specter of further conflict looms.

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Notable Quotes

• Andrew Callaghan [02:22]: "This new round of Middle Eastern lose lose theater began after Israel struck a uranium enrichment facility..."

• Tel Aviv Local [12:57]: "This specific mess is going to get hectic. So that's why I'm enjoying the scenery right now because in a couple hours I reckon it's going to pop off again."

• Tucker Carlson [28:26]: "Netanyahu convinced Trump that Israel is going to win this one. So you want to get on the winning side."

• James Gelvin [07:05]: "Do you think that, you know, you can imagine a nuclear bomb being dropped anywhere in the world in the next 20 or 30 years?"

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Final Thoughts

"Are We on the Brink of WW3?" offers a sobering examination of one of the most volatile regions in the world today. Through expert analysis, on-the-ground reporting, and incisive commentary, 5CAST navigates the complexities of international diplomacy, historical grievances, and the ever-present threat of nuclear warfare. This episode serves as a crucial reminder of the fragile nature of peace and the dire consequences that unchecked aggression can unleash on a global scale.

Transcript

[Andrew Callahan]

Well, it's been quite the stressful week for everyone except sports fans.

[Tucker Carlson]

Israel and Iran accuse each other of breaking a ceasefire during the early hours of their truce.

[James Gelvin]

This communist from New York someday gets elected.

[Tucker Carlson]

I can't believe that's happening.

[James Gelvin]

That's a terrible thing for our country.

[Tucker Carlson]

By the way, He's a communist.

[Andrew Callahan]

People are throwing around these big words like nuclear holocaust and geopolitical tension. And last Friday the term World War 3 was the highest search phrase on Google behind least likely mid sized US city to get bombed by Iran, which used to be Austin, Texas before being ruined by people pretending to be from Los Angeles. Simultaneously before an already broken ceasefire was put in place by Senor Donald A couple days ago, we saw a dramatic splintering within the MAGA movement, with many people feeling like Trump's America first promise was being broken by bombing a foreign country on behalf of Israel. While most Americans are struggling to get by the this resulted in Tucker Carlson's first dope moment in history when he cooked Cancun Ted Cruz for being unable to provide a rough population estimate of Iran. Among other things, you don't know the.

[James Gelvin]

Population of the country you seek to topple. How many people live in Iran? 92 million.

[Andrew Callahan]

And also Trump said the F word. Peep this. They don't know what the fuck they're doing anyways. This new round of Middle Eastern lose lose theater began after Israel struck a uranium enrichment facility in the humble Canyon Laden grotto of Natan's Island.

[Tucker Carlson]

Closer look at the three Iranian nuclear.

[Agat Schwartz]

Sites that have been attacked by the.

[Andrew Callahan]

US where scientists were attempting to chef up a nuclear bomb. The strike wiped out essentially the entire upper echelon of Iran's military command. And as we mentioned in a previous episode, Iran is Israel's top op, as the kids say, due to their proxy funding of several prolific Islamic resistance movements like the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and of course Hamas in the Gaza Strip, where Israel has killed over 56,000 Palestinians since October 7, 2020 of which were civilians and over half of which were children. As usual, the Israeli government has their own way of justifying these actions, promising.

[Tucker Carlson]

There would be no Palestinian state on.

[Agat Schwartz]

His watch and whipping up fear on.

[Andrew Callahan]

Facebook with the Gaza genocide. Israel's justification is squashing the existential threat posed by Hamas and groups like them by any means necessary. And with these preemptive strikes on Iran, it's to again eliminate the possibility of future global nuclear annihilation.

[Donald Trump]

Congratulations President Trump, your bold decision to target Iran's nuclear facilities with the awesome and righteous might of the United States will change history.

[Andrew Callahan]

After Israel's initial strike, Iran clapped back with ballistic missiles, some of which broke through the Iron Dome defense system and struck apartment buildings in Israel.

[Israeli Military Official]

This is all small damage, but the real price is what's happening to the.

[Andrew Callahan]

People of Israel prompting more crossfire and ultimately the United States getting involved and personally striking three nuclear facilities. On June 21st of this year they.

[Tucker Carlson]

Confirmed that three nuclear sized Natanz for the and Isfahan were targeted by the airstrikes of quote unquote enemy.

[Andrew Callahan]

This no doubt came after Netanyahu's suggestion to the Trump cabinet that Iran was merely months away from atomic capability. Which by the way is something that Netanyahu has been saying since 2009, back when America was busy grieving the King of Pop and developing a swine flu vaccine.

[Donald Trump]

Iran has never given up its quest for nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons, nuclear weapons, nuclear weapons, atomic bombs.

[Andrew Callahan]

However, bluff or not, Netanyahu appears to place Iran in the same existential threat to world peace bucket as groups like Hamas, which is a sentiment that strikes a chord with many Americans like myself, who have been conditioned with the civilizational clash propaganda since 9 11, after which we were told that Al Qaeda's grievance with the west was our ability to attend baseball games and wear bikinis, not the presence of US military bases in the Arabian Peninsula or our military support of Israel. And just to be clear, I don't agree or condone any of Osama Bin Laden's actions, and I can't really think of a single case where terrorism has been genuinely effective. But radical groups are almost always born from legitimate grievances that give militants the righteous high ground to carry out terror attacks. And I think that understanding why terror attacks happen is the only way to prevent them from happening in the future. This whole civilizational or religious clash nonsense that politicians of a dominant group use to make issues like the Israel Palestine conflict seem ancient and unfixable is very deliberate as it allows them to classify their ops as crazed savages with no ground to stand on, who could never be reasoned with and thus should either be eliminated or given the gift of modernity through occupation. And as for Netanyahu, without this existential clash smokescreen that is really easy to throw up when you're discussing Muslim majority countries with the us he'd be considered an enemy and a traitor to the U.S. after all, it was his testimony in 2002 delivered to U.S. congress that prompted the U.S. invasion of Iraq, where Netanyahu claimed falsely that Israel found Evidence of nuclear weapons that had been manufactured by the Saddam Hussein regime.

[Donald Trump]

This is a ruler who is rapidly expanding his arsenal of biological and chemical weapons. This is a dictator who has used these weapons of mass destruction against his subjects and his neighbors.

[Andrew Callahan]

Of course, we know now there were no WMDs in Iraq. But the unnecessary invasion resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and thousands of US service members. You'd think our government would be like Netanyahu. What the fuck, man? You lied to us the whole time. So many of us died and even more of them died and now everybody hates us, which they probably did say for a minute, but we're seeing seemingly thereafter sweet talked back into compliance and thanked by Israel for their willingness to help chip away at that old existential threat, which now sounds more like Arab sovereignty and or oil ownership. Anyways, whether I'm crazy or whether that's happening now again with Iran is to be determined in the future. But it does seem that unlike Saddam Hussein, Khamenei was at least in the process of enriching uranium, which overall sounds like a bad thing. It would be great if nobody had nuclear weapons at all. And while I do enjoy virtual walks through the Mojave waste in fallout New Vegas radiation, sounds like an L chat. Ladies and gentlemen, my name is Andrew Callahan and you're watching 5cast the broadcast here at Channel 5, the largest crowdfunded newsroom on Earth. If you're watching this on YouTube right now, I'd like to remind you guys this broadcast is also available on Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon and a few other platforms. So if you want to head over and give us a nice review, a listen, whatever, just type in 5cast in all caps. You should see this pretty little logo with some autumn trees behind it. That's ours. In this episode, for our Infield segment, our Middle Eastern correspondent, Agat Schwartz will be on the streets of Tel Aviv, Israel, where the Pride Parade was ruined by ballistic missiles.

[Tel Aviv Local]

Unfortunately, the Pride Parade didn't happen. I love to party. Usually this place is pumping.

[Andrew Callahan]

After that, we're gonna sit down with Channel 5 guest professor of Middle Eastern studies, aka James Gelvin, America's professor, to talk about the history of Iranian society from the days of the Shah through the Islamic Revolution in 1970, 1978, up until now.

[James Gelvin]

Thanks so much for joining us once again.

[Tucker Carlson]

Thanks for having me.

[Andrew Callahan]

We're also going to get Gelvin's genuine take on the possibility of World War 3 going down throughout this century.

[James Gelvin]

Do you think that, you know, you can imagine a nuclear bomb being dropped anywhere in the world in the next 20 or 30 years.

[Andrew Callahan]

But first, and perhaps now more than ever, I think we need to hear a couple positive news stories.

[Donald Trump]

We here at Channel 5 think the world needs to hear some good news, maybe now more than ever. So let's get into it. Did you guys know that cooking related mishaps are the leading cause of house fires in the United States? And that most people flee when that open inflame gets out of control, leaving their pets, their loved ones, whoever else might be in the house, to fend for themselves and to lean on the fire department to clean up the mess? Well, the opposite is true for a seventh grader from Petersburg, Virginia named Romir Parker. It all started when Romir was in his bedroom one night and heard something strange downstairs. You guessed it, a house fire was going up in the kitchen, probably because someone left the stove on. But Romir had no time to play the blame game. He sprung into action. He grabbed his little brother and his little sister who were just one and two years old who were dead asleep on the couch watching Paw Patrol. I don't know. Pretty crazy to leave a one year old alone on the couch, you know, in my opinion. Right? But whatever. He saved them. He picked them up, had one in each arm and carried them to safety while the flames grew and grew. And to keep it real, Ramire would have been a purple Heart hero just then there alone, you know, I mean, with rescuing those two babies. But he wasn't done. Realizing his grandmother was still inside, he ran back in to help her get out too, while calling the fire department at the same time. The Petersburg Fire Department says the house could have gone up with everyone still in it if it wasn't for Ramirez. Fast thinking fire chief Wayne Hoover even made him an honorary firefighter on the spot and said there's a job waiting for him the day he turns 18, which is great news in the context of a city with a 21% poverty rate. Ramire, if you're watching this, salute to you and shout out to your arms for being strong enough to carry two babies at once. I carry one baby and it sucks. It's just hard to do. They move around a lot. You know, you're a hero for a nob it through a cloud of smoke, a wall of smoke with two babies and a grandma. Our next story brings us across the pond to the old country of Ireland, which has been making waves in the news lately for all the wrong reasons.

[Tucker Carlson]

A leisure centre has been set on fire in the town of Larne in Northern Ireland this evening.

[James Gelvin]

Others say tension around immigration has been building in this community for some time.

[Donald Trump]

But our brothers in green just took a serious W that will ensure respiratory health for many future generations of Callahan's, Gallaghers and o'. Brien's. The country's last remaining coal burning plant, moneypoint, located in County Clare, is officially shutting down its smoggy operations as Ireland pivots towards renewable energy sources built in the 1980s as a backup plan during the oil crisis, Moneypoint will now shift to being an emergency oil reserve with plans to cease that by 2029. After that, they have no plans. So I hope to see moneypoint as a gay lake revival academy or maybe a sick ass water park in the future. My grandfather always said you're old for an inner two. For real, though. Shout out. Ireland now officially the 15th European nation to kick coal out of its energy mix. No one's free until all 32 counties are free. Shout out to NCAP now to the streets of Tel Aviv, Israel, where a gosh force is providing us with coverage following ballistic missile strikes from Iran.

[Tel Aviv Local]

We are the chosen people. We're ready for whatever. And Israel will not fall. And that's straight up. We are the chosen people. We will not fall. BB Keep going, BB Keep going. I am pro BB all the way. All the way. And I'm happy Trump's in power. And I know Bibi and Trump, they're good friends. America has our back. We need to go hard. We should show them we're not scared. Enough is enough.

[Agat Schwartz]

Hi everyone, this is Agathe and we're at the Pride Parade in Tel Aviv, Israel. Except that we're not because it got canceled.

[James Gelvin]

The much anticipated Tel Aviv Pride Parade.

[Tucker Carlson]

Was canceled as Israel braces for a.

[James Gelvin]

Potential retaliatory strike from Iran.

[Tel Aviv Local]

Unfortunately, the Pride Parade didn't happen. And it happened a bit, but it wasn't like how it used to be.

[Agat Schwartz]

Did you plan to party every time?

[Tel Aviv Local]

I love to party. Usually this place is pumping.

[Agat Schwartz]

Makes sense.

[Tucker Carlson]

It's canceled. It was risky.

[Agat Schwartz]

I think it was even risky before the Iranian attacks happened.

[Tucker Carlson]

I'm upset that it was canceled. I was actually really excited. It just sucks that it didn't happen.

[James Gelvin]

It would have been my first one, so I was looking forward to it, you know.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah, but look, there's more important things.

[James Gelvin]

That matter, so I'd rather be safe.

[Tucker Carlson]

Than in a big crowd and all that.

[Agat Schwartz]

But I'm the optimistic one. I think when things are going to.

[Tucker Carlson]

Get better, we're going to have the party we deserve, I think at some.

[Donald Trump]

Point we all were hoping to happen.

[Tucker Carlson]

It's a big thing for us. It's a big thing for all the people that came from abroad.

[Agat Schwartz]

Katelyn Jenner the Israeli people are very.

[Tucker Carlson]

Open minded, they're friendly.

[Agat Schwartz]

So this was supposed to be an episode about the pride parade in Tel Aviv that was supposed to happen this weekend. But unfortunately reality hits hard in the Middle east and this is what we get. A war between Iran and Israel.

[Tucker Carlson]

The new waves of attacks between Israel and Iran.

[Agat Schwartz]

The arch rivals have been locked in battle, launching tit for tat strikes.

[Israeli Military Official]

This evening we watched as Iran fired.

[Tucker Carlson]

Its weapons at the prime target that.

[Israeli Military Official]

Is downtown Tel Aviv.

[Tucker Carlson]

The deaths and destruction mounting on both sides. The Iranian Ministry of Health says 224.

[James Gelvin]

People have been killed by Israeli airstrikes.

[Tucker Carlson]

In Israel, officials say 24 people have died in ballistic missile attacks.

[Agat Schwartz]

The question will be how much pain are they prepared to bear if this goes on for a long time? You know there's a war going on right now.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah, I know.

[Iranian Local]

You see now we don't see anything.

[Tucker Carlson]

Anything in the sky. Yeah, I think now it's okay.

[Agat Schwartz]

I feel like we've been living different catastrophes all the time. Like when I came, it was Covid, then the war.

[Tucker Carlson]

So we're kind of like getting used to it.

[Tel Aviv Local]

This is like how life is here. Good or bad, you get used to.

[Tucker Carlson]

Like, this is the drill.

[Tel Aviv Local]

This is what you have to do.

[Tucker Carlson]

You just go, you take shelter and.

[James Gelvin]

Then a few minutes after, life goes.

[Tucker Carlson]

Back to as normal as it can be. I wasn't even scared. I was more so distressed about the unknown because we're just sitting in a safe room checking my phone every five minutes, hearing, oh, there's a thing that hit somewhere. Don't know anything about what's going on. So that was the scary bit. But besides that, it was fine.

[Tel Aviv Local]

Beautiful day, but we're ready for tonight.

[Agat Schwartz]

What's tonight?

[Tel Aviv Local]

Tonight I reckon there's going to be.

[Agat Schwartz]

Another wave of another wave of missiles from Iran.

[Tel Aviv Local]

Fucking night.

[Agat Schwartz]

Yeah. So you're used to all this mess.

[Tel Aviv Local]

I am used to all this mess.

[Agat Schwartz]

What do you think about this specific mess?

[Tel Aviv Local]

This specific mess is going to get hectic. So that's why I'm enjoying the scenery right now because in a couple hours I reckon it's going to pop off again.

[Iranian Local]

Maybe after in the night.

[Tucker Carlson]

It'll be dangerous. Tonight, Israel and Iran are at war. For days, Israel's defenses have largely held.

[Andrew Callahan]

Up against Iran's missile attacks.

[Israeli Military Official]

But local television networks are Reporting unprecedented consequences in terms of damage and destruction. I think the, that this picture is telling all the story. As you may see, all the buildings around got hit, not just the one who got the bomb on it. All the window shutters and the windows everywhere are finished.

[Agat Schwartz]

I live over there, so all the bomb get inside to my house. The glasses, the glasses broke in your house? Yeah, but we thank God. We have been in the mamad, in the safe room. It saved life.

[Israeli Military Official]

We heard the alarm and then we went to the shelter. It was really, really terrifying because it was a big bomb and this is all small damage, but the real price is what's happening to the people of Israel. I am very proud of the Israeli army and the Israeli Mossad and they're going to make the Middle East a better place in a few weeks. So maybe the pain and the suffering is worth it.

[Iranian Local]

Iran is, I think, the only country in the world that said we are going to destroy Israel. Iran says it all the time, it repeats it. And we believe that. We all agree that there should have been done something even before. And if it's done now, it's better late than never. Because if they had a nuclear weapon now, they would have. There's no doubt about it.

[Israeli Military Official]

We know that the nuclears are not for use. And if Iran will have a nuclear bomb then we have a serious problem because they will use it. Then it's a problem not just for the Middle east, it's a problem for the world.

[Iranian Local]

I don't think they really, except for the United States, really understand the consequences of Iran being a country with a missile weapon. And for years we've been trying to stop their progress because they are threatening to destroy us and we can't let that happen.

[Israeli Military Official]

There really needs to be a very big change. We need to unite countries, need to help each other and not to fight each other. And most of the people in Israel believe the same way. So I have a very big hope.

[Agat Schwartz]

So even though your house was ruined, you're relatively happy about the thing because you think it will lead to a better future?

[Israeli Military Official]

Well, I'm not happy because we lost so many lives and I'm not happy because there are many people that are suffering. But I have to be happy and I have to get hope for my children to get a better world. After I will wipe my tears, I will be very happy for them because we'll get a better place, we'll get a better country, a better Middle east and a better world.

[Agat Schwartz]

What do you think about the parade that got cancelled? The Pride Parade.

[Iranian Local]

I'm very sad that it was canceled. I'm happy that there is a parade and usually there is a parade in Tel Aviv. Tel Aviv is known to be a town or city that advocates for gays. So I'm, I'm sad that it was canceled, but there was no other choice.

[Agat Schwartz]

Yeah.

[Iranian Local]

And my motto is live and let's live.

[Agat Schwartz]

That's a good motto.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah.

[Iranian Local]

Tell that to the Iranians.

[Donald Trump]

Thanks to God again for your on the ground reporting. And now to our big sit down interview of the day. As mentioned, Andrew will be sitting down with UCLA Middle Eastern studies professor and frequent Channel 5 guest, Dr. James Galvin for an in depth expert analysis of the situation unfolding in the Middle East. Here's that.

[James Gelvin]

Thanks so much for joining us once again.

[Tucker Carlson]

Thanks for having me.

[James Gelvin]

You officially have the Most recurring Channel 5 appearances of any guest of all time. It used to be a man named Crip Mac, who's a very different person than you in terms of what he enjoys discussing it.

[Tucker Carlson]

Get real tricky, you get real Mickey get real dangerous. Never commit suicide. Everything's gonna see all right. Where I'm from, you're a Custer if you don't fight back. It don't say if you win or lose. You're a Custer if you don't fight back. Heard I got his hood whacked. Gotta knock him out, he ain't like that.

[James Gelvin]

However, you've now surpassed him.

[Tucker Carlson]

Oh, there we go for appearance number five.

[James Gelvin]

Okay, so for starters, what's going on right now?

[Tucker Carlson]

What's going on is that the United States has intervened into this conflict between Iran and Israel and launched attacks on nuclear facilities over the last couple of days. And we don't know the extent to which that they were able to destroy nuclear facilities or just damage them or whatever. And recently Iran has decided to retaliate by hitting an American base in Qatar.

[James Gelvin]

Anybody die?

[Tucker Carlson]

Not that I know of so far. I mean, this is brand new stuff. The Americans have been sort of like tipped off about this. They knew about this, that this was going to happen. The bases were on high alert, so we don't know that any casualties would really have taken place.

[James Gelvin]

How many military bases do we have in the Middle East?

[Tucker Carlson]

We have a lot. We have a lot. This one is Qatar. We also have one in Kuwait. We also have in Iraq. We also have in various other places as well. So we have them scattered out mostly in the Gulf. And they are both Air Force bases and naval bases.

[James Gelvin]

And that's something that's been a big point of contention in the Middle east for quite some time.

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, it was a major point of contention in the 1950s, believe it or not, in the early 1960s, not so much anymore. The Gulf actually wants to have American presence there simply because that is a guarantee. And it used to be that the big enemy was Iran. It's not quite the same thing right now. Of course, there's a detente between the Gulf countries, Iran, but this gives them a sense of security, that the Americans are there.

[James Gelvin]

So we struck Iran in solidarity with Israel.

[Tucker Carlson]

We struck Iran, yes, in solidarity with Israel. I'm not quite sure exactly what the whole basis of what we were doing is all about. I mean, here's the thing. The Israelis are very, very good at tactics, but they're very, very bad at strategy. And so in terms of tactics, they were able to launch drones from inside Iranian territory. They were able to coordinate very complex aerial maneuvers. And then to what end? They've never defined their end. So at various points they said, we want to degrade Iran's capacity to build a nuclear weapon. We want to destroy Iran's capacity to build a nuclear weapon. We want a regime change. No, we don't want a regime change. Yes, we do want a regime change. So it's like what happened with Gaza, which is that it's easy to get in, it's easy to kill people, but it's not so easy to define what you ultimately want to do and how you get out.

[James Gelvin]

Last time I was here, we talked about something called the axis of resistance, right? Which is this sort of economic and political link between Iran and various non state entities throughout the Middle east, the Houthis, Hamas, et cetera. And so is Israel's motif in attacking Iran in the first place, does that have to do with the idea of retribution for October 7th?

[Tucker Carlson]

It has to do with the opportunity is there. Now, since October 7th, you look at it this way, Hezbollah has been pretty much, very much downgraded. So has Hamas. The Syrian government was overthrown. You have a new Syrian government there. At long last, the Assad regime has fallen. All you have is the Houthis that are left. And you know, the Houthis have interests of their own in the region. So the Israelis were able last October to knock out the Iranian air defense system. So why not? This is a chance that the Israelis have to get rid of what they consider to be their biggest competitor in the region.

[Andrew Callahan]

Competitor in what regard?

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, Israel and the American allies and the United States are status quo states in the region. Iran doesn't like the status Quo. It's tilted against Iran. So what Iran has been able to do has, has been to sort of build up a deterrent force that would prevent Israeli strikes against Iran by having the Houthis and Hezbollah and Hamas and the Syrians and so on and so forth in this ring of fire. Well, that ring of fire is gone now. So what's to prevent the Israelis from finally dealing with the Iranians in a way that will make it once and for all, which is exactly what the Israelis are looking at right now.

[James Gelvin]

And their biggest fear is Iran developing nuclear weapons capacity.

[Tucker Carlson]

Their claim is that their fear is for Iran to build a nuclear weapons capacity. I mean, they've been crying wolf since 1992. However, Iran is on the verge. 1992. Iran is on the verge. 2012. You probably might remember the picture that Benjamin Netanyahu held up at the United nations, the Wile E. Coyote bomb picture. At this point, what Netanyahu is saying is that they're closer and closer and closer. But Tulsi Gabbard, when she gave testimony, said that Iran is really, really not as close as is being said. She was slapped down pretty hard by Donald Trump. Well, then my intelligence community is wrong.

[James Gelvin]

Who in the intelligence community said that?

[Tucker Carlson]

Your Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. She's wrong. So that, you know, we don't really know how close Iran is. We do know that Iran has some uranium and 60% enrichment. 90% is necessary for a bomb, and that could be reached fairly quickly, but it doesn't have the other components for the bomb Yet. Yet. And so it ranges now from three years to five years in terms of lead time for Iran to be able to do it.

[James Gelvin]

So it's pretty hard to make a nuclear bomb.

[Tucker Carlson]

It's very difficult to make a nuclear bomb or more people who have done it, you know, but the thing is that it's, it's just as difficult to deploy a nuclear bomb. I mean, not, not to send it somewhere that's, that's fairly easy. But, you know, to use it is something that you don't want to do. You. It's a good deterrent, which is what Iran really is looking at right now. I'm sure the idea being that, well, we used to have Hamas, Hezbol, the Syrian regime, the Houthis, etc. Etc. As our deterrent that could strike Israel. We don't have that anymore. So what deterrent do we have to make sure that Israel doesn't hit us really hard? We have the possibility of a nuclear weapon. So If I were Iran, what I'd be doing right now is I'd be making some motion, which apparently is what they did today, of striking Qatar, striking American bases in the region, Qatar, Kuwait, you know, so base like that, and then, you know, making sure the damage is not too great, and then scurrying like hell to make sure that they can build a nuclear weapon as quickly as possible to restore deterrence.

[James Gelvin]

So posturing that you have a nuclear weapon even if you don't, gives you an advantage in negotiation.

[Tucker Carlson]

It's not good to posture if you don't. It's good to posture if you do have it, you know, in negotiation. But not just negotiations. It's that, you know, everybody knows the Israelis have nuclear weapon, which is why it's fairly unreasonable to think that, you know, some power is going to strike Israel in an existential way. Now, you don't use these sort of nuclear weapons for lesser conflicts. And when I say lesser conflicts, I don't mean that, for example, in October, people didn't die, they did. But what I mean is, is that there was no existential threat to Israel on October 7th. The Israelis pulled out the nuclear option once, and that was in 1973, when the head of the Israeli army, Moshe Dayan, said that it looks like the Third Temple is going to go down. And everybody read that as saying that it looks like we are under existential threat from Egypt and from Syria. And so therefore what we're going to do is we're going to use our nuclear weapons now that we have.

[James Gelvin]

Yeah, but I assume that there's a specific higher degree of fear in Israel because one nuclear weapon, if dropped, if a bomb was dropped, could basically destroy the country. Isn't it like the size of the United States?

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, this is very, very small. But I mean, the thing, of course, is that once nuclear weapons are deployed, that's the end of the story.

[James Gelvin]

End of human civilization.

[Tucker Carlson]

No, end of this particular story. I mean, not the end of human civilization. Look, we've had conflicts before between nuclear powers. We've had conflicts, for example, in the 1960s between the Soviet Union and China. China developed a nuclear we and a nuclear capability during its cultural Revolution, but it wasn't crazy enough to use it even then. And then you have Pakistan and India, for example, both nuclear armed powers. They've been constantly back and forth over Kashmir. Now why don't they go for the nuclear weapons? Because that's it. You pull out the nuclear weapon and the other guy pulls out his nuclear weapon and you're finished. So fundamentally, you keep it at a level below that.

[James Gelvin]

Do you think that you could imagine a nuclear bomb being dropped anywhere in the world in the next 20 or 30 years?

[Tucker Carlson]

Years. 20 or 30 years is a long way out. So I have no idea whether, say five years, five years. I doubt that that's going to happen. You know, basically the big fear of course, is non state actors that act differently than states. I mean, for example, Iran is a state and there's this thing about Iran that, you know, it's a state that's millenarial cult that, you know, they, you know, don't care if they live or die. And that's bullshit. Iran is a nation state like any other nation state and they have their own concerns, they have their population, they have administration, every bureaucracy of an economy and so on and so forth. Now, it'd be very, very different if Iran was like Al Qaeda or ISIS or a place like that in which it doesn't have a homeland to defend. And so Al Qaeda, the big fear after 2001, after 9, 11, was Al Qaeda would get some sort of weapon of mass destruction and that would be the rules would change.

[James Gelvin]

Yeah. It seems like historically the US uses this idea of nuclear capability as a justification for various military actions in the Middle east, notably the Iraq war.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah, basically that was known to be pretty much of a sham. I mean, we went through excuse after excuse after excuse on that one. We ended up with, you know, Iran will become a beacon of freedom in the Middle east. And we see how much, how well that's worked. But you know, the real stretch, when the head of the CIA said it's a slam dunk that Iran has weapons of mass destruction. They didn't have weapons of mass destruction. They were blood about weapons of mass destruction. Which gets us back to your point, which is that it's no good to bluff because when you bluff, somebody might call you on it.

[James Gelvin]

Right. So do you think there might be a hidden agenda in the military aggression on Iran?

[Tucker Carlson]

I think that what happened was Benjamin Netanyahu got on the telephone to Donald Trump and said, look, you can be on the side of history at this point. You can make history. You know, we can just change the entire Middle east like you weren't able to do in 2003. And all that means is you're helping us out on this one. What we'll be able to do is to ensure that we have a next American century in the Middle East. And I think that Donald Trump is enough of a sucker to have fallen for that. Yeah.

[James Gelvin]

You mentioned before that you feel like Netanyahu kind of is playing Donald Trump, playing on his false perceptions of things out there.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah. And basically, I mean, what moves Donald Trump? Well, a couple of things. The idea of political gain, his admiration for strongmen, the idea that he could win a Nobel Prize now, the idea that he could undo what Joe Biden and what Barack Obama did. Remember, Obama was the guy who got us into the nuclear deal, deal with Iran. It was Trump who got us out of that deal. And it was because of that Trump got us out of the deal that we're in, the situation that we're in today.

[James Gelvin]

What other American enemies have nuclear capabilities?

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, of course, if you want to put them in the enemy category, there's Russia, there's China.

[James Gelvin]

I've heard something about North Korea, too.

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, North Korea, definitely. I forgot that one. Of course, you know, North Korean is pretty much very different from China and from Russia. North Korea is acts a bit more irrationally than China and Russia. I mean, I mean, even in the case of Israel and Iran, both of those countries have acted fairly reasonably or not reasonably, but have acted rationally leading up to this confrontation. And in this confrontation, I mean, it's not like either country is going to deploy nuclear weapons immediately against the other country. You know, they both have assets that they want to protect. They want to, they have a homeland that they want to defend, so they're reasonable in that way. And the same way with China, same way with the Russia, Russia. North Korea, on the other hand, is a totally different story. We don't know.

[James Gelvin]

I guess the point that I was getting at is that, you know, nuclear. Is it safe to say that nuclear power is generally wielded by the West?

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, the west does have a significant number of countries that have it. We have Britain, for example, we have France, we have the United States, et cetera, et cetera.

[James Gelvin]

So we're kind of the nuclear boogeyman to them in certain ways.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah, but there's a difference between us and them, inasmuch as they can count on the United States to defend the status quo quo and they could count on America's North Atlantic allies to defend the status quo. They are not status quo powers. They are not happy with the way the status quo is. This is why Russia went into Ukraine, for example. It wasn't happy with the way things were developing with the idea that Ukraine might join NATO, for example, or the idea that Ukraine might pull closer to the west, even if it wasn't going to join NATO. So what they want to do is to upset that status quo. China is breathing down the neck of the United States at the present time as the greatest economic power, as the hegemony on in various parts of the world and so on and so forth. Their belt and road project is integrating a world economy around China so that America's got the default currency, for example, the world reserve currency is the dollar. The America is still the world's greatest economic power, but China wants to move into that sort of position.

[James Gelvin]

So is there a natural resource incentive for the US to have such a strong presence in the Middle east that goes to back beyond political power?

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, the oil in the Middle east of course is important, but I mean the thing about the oil is that it was never really that essential for the United States was essential for two things. It was essential for American allies. I mean Japan gets more than 90% of its oil from the Middle East. America gets very, very little amount. It's like 17% and that's replaceable as well. And the other thing is that, you know, chaos in the oil market means chaos in the world economy, which is hurtful to the United States. So it's those two things that make it so important. So when the Iranians, you know, have the capability of, for example, blocking the Strait of Hormuz through which approximately 30% of the world's oil travels, then the United States sits up and takes notice on that sort of thing.

[James Gelvin]

So backing up a bit. Before Israel struck Iran and before we did, there were some strikes that were launched by Iran into Israel now.

[Tucker Carlson]

Oh yes, absolutely. I mean after Israel launched its strikes on June 13, the Iranians launched their strikes into Israel as well. They haven't been as successful as the Israeli strikes. The Israelis have, you know, anti missile defenses better than the Iranians have. But the strikes didn't occur until after the IsraelIsrael launched its own attacks on the 13th.

[James Gelvin]

I mean they must have been pretty well orchestrated because they were able to get past the Iron Dome and hit apartment buildings in Tel Aviv. No.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah, but you can I assume that first of all it's more difficult to knock down ballistic missiles than it is to knock down drones. Drones. The last attack was mainly drones. I mean initially with the on 13th or so the Israel, the Iranians sent over about 300 drones or so and they were pretty much easily knocked out of the sky. Ballistic missiles go up very, very high. They come down very, very quickly and so it's more difficult to get them. So they were able to hit targets in Tel Aviv, but they were also knocked out There are multiple layers to the anti ballistic missile defenses, so. So this is the way that you have an integrated defense.

[James Gelvin]

Yeah, it definitely kind of ruined Pride Month in Tel Aviv.

[Tucker Carlson]

I'll bet it did.

[James Gelvin]

What's up with how people in Israel always act absolutely baffled as to why people are ever attacking them? And this is not an attack on the Israeli citizenry, but every interview is like, what the hell's going on? They're, like, looking at the buildings. Are they just not aware of the actions of their government, or are they just. They just. I don't understand psychologically what's happening there.

[Tucker Carlson]

I assume that the Israelis could foresee, for example, things like if they struck Iran, that Iran would strike back. The October 7th was a surprise to them. They thought they had everything under control in the same way that they thought in the beginning of the 1973 war that they had everything under control. Everything was cool, it was fine. We can just keep on going at the status quo. And this is probably why October 7th took place, was the idea that there was a status quo that had been reached, which was that the Israelis would allow Hamas to maintain its governance of Gaza and that Hamas would remain within its borders, and that the Palestine question would just drop off the horizon. And so Israel was making these deals of normalization with the uae, with Bahrain, with Morocco, with Sudan, and everybody was ignoring the Palestine question. Now, when you ignore the Palestine question, that's when we get these militant activities taking place that the Palestinians want to reassert this back into the international agenda. And that's exactly what they did. And they did this in the 60s and the 70s and the 80s as well.

[James Gelvin]

So to move all the way back, I want to talk a little bit about the history of Iran moving back to the 70s and even before. So I grew up on the west coast with a lot of Persian people and stuff like that. Is Persian the same thing as Iran?

[Tucker Carlson]

Persian is the name of Iran before 1935. Then in 1935, the ambassador in Germany, the Persian ambassador in Germany, wrote to the Shah of Iran saying, look, you know, fundamentally, we should change our name to Iran back to this one, which was a province of Persia, Iran. And the idea being that we could demonstrate to the Germans that we're different from the Jews, the same that were Aryan just like they are. And this is how, starting in 1935, the Persian Empire became Iran.

[James Gelvin]

So they were supporters of the Third Reich?

[Tucker Carlson]

Yes. As a matter of fact, the Shah of Iran, the guy who actually set up the modern Iranian state in the 1920s, was deposed by the British in the 1940s for being pro Axis. And they put his son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, in charge to become Shah of Iran. And he was the last Shah of Iran deposed, 1979.

[James Gelvin]

So after, you know, the Nazis lost the war, was there a similar migration to Iran like there was to Argentina Nazis?

[Tucker Carlson]

Not that I'm aware. Interestingly, there was a Jewish migration to Iran during the war. And the Iranians were very open to taking Jews, European Jews, into Iran, same way that the Ottomans were centuries and centuries before that. The idea being that, hey, these are people that we need, you know, so why not give them a home?

[James Gelvin]

Sounds a little awkward, right?

[Tucker Carlson]

It does now we're looking back on it, but, you know.

[Andrew Callahan]

Yeah, yeah.

[James Gelvin]

Most of the Persians that I grew up around kind of have the same vibe as Miami Cubans, where they have a lot of pride, ethnic pride, in regards to, like, their lineage, but they speak very negatively about the current regime in the country they immigrated from.

[Tucker Carlson]

Right. There were multiple immigrations from Iran, though. The first one was political immigration. We see a lot of people who are associated with the regime regime, students who didn't go back home, people like that. And then after that, you began to have economic refugees, family reunification, and that sort of thing as well. So what we saw in the very beginning was very, very strong anti Islamic Republic ideas tapering off a bit. Now we still play host, for example, to the pretender to the throne of Iran, you know, who is in and out of Los Angeles, you know, fundraising and that sort of thing. So. So he is somebody who has a great deal more support among Iranians in Los Angeles than he has among Iranians in Tehran, for example.

[James Gelvin]

Yeah, it's very similar to the Cuban thing in Miami.

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, they tell these stories about, you know, they broadcast these propaganda things from the pretender to the throne of Iran into Iran. And the Iranians like to listen to it because for them it's like a joke. So, you know, basically for the them, it's sort of like, how unrealistic can.

[James Gelvin]

You possibly be for people who don't know what's going on in Iran? I kind of want to go back to that year, 1978, which is the year of the Islamic Revolution, right?

[Tucker Carlson]

78. 79.

[James Gelvin]

Yeah. I remember I had a friend growing up, he was Baha', I, which is a minority faith group in Iran, and they have this framed photo of themselves on the streets of Iran wearing bell bottom jeans and dressed like they were in the Scooby Doo series, the Scooby Doo movie that was a real life adaptation where Shaggy was dressed like, you know, the 70s style with Velma and the mascots and stuff. So they were. And they would always point to that.

[Tucker Carlson]

Don't tell me you never had bell bottom jeans.

[James Gelvin]

I have never had bell bottom jeans. I grew up in the sort of the baggy jean and then high water era. And now we're going to standard workwear.

[Andrew Callahan]

Okay.

[James Gelvin]

I have worn bell bottom jeans at one point, but I was lampooned for it in middle school.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah. Okay. What happened in the Iranian revolution? The Iranian revolution was a real revolution. And it was first of the great people power revolutions. And we see those throughout East Asia. We see those in the Arab uprisings are part of that thing, intifada. And Palestine was part of this thing where rather than having these small groups of people, you know, Leninist style, trying to overthrow the regime through armed force, what you had was these masses out on the street. And the thing about when you have these masses out on the street, it's more effective because it doesn't get the, you know, the backs up of the regime. So let's say a policeman in Tehran could say, those are my kids out there, you know, I'm not gonna shoot these people.

[James Gelvin]

So prior to the Islamic revolution, the Shah was in power. Was he democratically elected or anything like that?

[Tucker Carlson]

No, he was the king. He was. Or the emperor. I was once corrected by the current pretender to the throne. When I called him your royal highness, he corrected me in saying, no, you mean your imperial highness. He was the Shah of Iran and it's a hereditary monarchy. So it's his son who's now the pretender to the throne.

[James Gelvin]

Was his son like an Uday Hussein type of guy? Just a total people piece of shit.

[Tucker Carlson]

Let's just put it. He's very unrealistic about what he wants to do.

[James Gelvin]

And he was supposed to be the successor to the Shah, Right?

[Tucker Carlson]

Right.

[James Gelvin]

So was his behavior and his lack of vision part of what fueled the uprising?

[Tucker Carlson]

No, the Shah. I mean, the thing was, fundamentally this was an anti imperialist uprising. The Shah was too close to the Americans. This Shah was extraordinarily repressive. And Iran was also sort of like extraordinarily corrupt. The government was extraordinarily corrupt. So the family of the Shah and his hangers on were extraordinarily unpopular for that reason as well. So there's all sorts of reasons why these things happen. But you see, revolutions are over caused. And as a matter of fact, what we can say is revolutions are not really Caused at all. When I talk to my students about revolutions, I always talk to them about, okay, the three Cs of revolutions. There is a contingent event that takes place. There is the context for the revolution, and there's consciousness. The context is what we always talk about. Well, you have, you know, repression, you have hunger, you have, you know, corruption, you have this, that and the other thing. But unless they enter into your mind as something that is totally wrong. And so all of a sudden the corruption becomes a real issue or repression becomes a real issue. That's what I mean by consciousness. That, you know, it's always there. You could always find it. It there. Income differentials or things like that. But when people say this is unjust and I have to do something about it, it's like doing something about it that causes a revolution.

[James Gelvin]

Yeah. One thing that Liam mentioned too, is that back in the 70s and the 60s, before the genesis of major, what's seen as, like, Arab wealth, like places like Dubai and stuff, there was a big idea of Islam and kind of the resistance movement being a part of the broader global peace movement.

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, Islam wasn't really an extraordinary factor until the 1970s. And it had to. With the oil. It had to do with the Saudis began to build all sorts of academies and mosques and so on and so forth. Mosque construction, for example, in Gaza just went through the roof after the 1973 oil price hikes. Because these. These places actually had two things. They had wealth that they could spend, and they also had a specific type of Islam that they wanted to expand. And their Islam was a very, very puritanical Islam. It was an Islam that said, fundamentally, wait a minute, Muslims shouldn't enter into politics. They should their hands. And so what happened was that you get a lot of these groups that emerged in the 1970s as a result of oil wealth that the Saudis, Kuwaitis, and other people were pouring into various countries. This is where the Taliban comes from. The Taliban comes from these academies that the Saudis had set up in Pakistan and that the Afghanis who became part of the Taliban went to these academies. They learned from the majority. And this is where we get the word Taliban from. Students. Students, exactly.

[James Gelvin]

Yeah. What was Khomeini's version of Islam?

[Tucker Carlson]

Khomeini, fundamentally, the play that you can have within Islam depends upon which branch of Islam you're in. So the Sunnis take a very, very puritanical view of Islam. The thing that Khomeini was able to play on was all the mythology and this symbolism of Shi Islam and so.

[James Gelvin]

How quickly after the revolution was he able to consolidate absolutely absolute power?

[Tucker Carlson]

By 1981, his faction was totally in power.

[James Gelvin]

And how did the other various groups, like the women's groups and Marxist movements, feel about that?

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, they were very much opposed, but they were pretty much busted by that point. They were very, very effective at counter revolutionary activities. They were very effective as painting these people as being dupes of the west, being dupes of the United States, just.

[James Gelvin]

Traitors in various places.

[Tucker Carlson]

Right. The Marxists were considered to be dupes of Russia, etcetera, etcetera. So.

[James Gelvin]

So how did women's rights transform during that decade?

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, the women's groups were repressed. It depends what you mean by women's rights. First of all, women can vote now in Iran.

[James Gelvin]

I mean, when you say now, like we're talking as of a couple of years.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, the elections are fairly meaningless, I mean, because the candidates are well vetted. The thing about women's rights in the Middle east and other places as well is that some of the worst dictators are very, very good on women's rights. And the reason for that is because that's the last bit of patriarchy that the state hasn't been able to get into is a family. And if the state can penetrate the family, if they can get behind the pater familias, they can control all of society. So what they try to do is to bust the power of the men controlling the family and reach right into the family directly. Now, I'm not saying that the mullahs and the people who are running Iran are actually feminists in any way, shape or form. They're saying certainly not. But I mean, the thing is that none of the people who purport to be feminists in the region really are either.

[James Gelvin]

Yeah, just the way that many Americans, especially of Persian descent, paint it is that, you know, Tehran went from like Amsterdam to Baghdad overnight.

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, it changed dramatically. It certainly did. But I mean, basically we saw the rebellions that took place in 2002, 2022, 2023, about the prevailing. And, you know, women, freedom, et cetera, were part and parcel of, you know, the. What the population felt as part of the oppression.

[James Gelvin]

Do the opponents of those marches and rallies and feel like the women who are protesting are like, falling victim to like Western influenced feminist propaganda or something?

[Tucker Carlson]

This was widespread. This was not only widespread, but long lived. I mean, this was the biggest threat to the regime that the regime had ever faced. So it was very, very widespread. So it wasn't just These, you know, Westernized, spoiled bourgeois women. This was something that. This is programmed misogyny against half the population of Iran. This is not only that, but this is a regime that is thoroughly corrupt, that is thoroughly repressive. I mean, look, when the regime gets its back up against the wall, they're willing to do the entire go, the entire gamut. So the Basij, which is a popular militia, they unleashed them on the demonstrators and the protesters. And what they saw was a large number, what the medical people saw, a large number of women who were shot in the genitals and the breasts, you know, just to sort of like, send a message.

[James Gelvin]

Yeah, that's horrible. So as far as the 80s goes, can we break down the anatomy of kind of what that regime was like? I mean, were there any positive changes at all that happened for the people of Iran, the common people?

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, the 80s is skewed in a certain way because in 1980, Iraq launched a attack on Iran. And for Most of the 80s, Iran and Iraq were at war. And when we talk about this, this was probably the bloodiest confrontation of the 21st century, excuse me, of the 20th century at that period. During that period, you know, after the Second World War, and, you know, it was up to 2 million casualties, maybe 1 million fatalities. You had cities that were being bombed, you had, you know, I mean, that sort of thing taking place. The Iranians are now comparing what's going on with their war with Israel as being the same thing with the war with Iraq.

[James Gelvin]

Where did the US Stand in the Iran Iraq conflict?

[Tucker Carlson]

Let them both burn. But we tilted towards Iraq to make sure that they would both burn. We weren't particularly friendly towards either regime, but we really were aghast at the Iranian regime, particularly after the embassy was taken over. And so the United States tilted towards Iraq. So we gave them intelligence information. We looked the other way when they used poison gas against their Kurdish citizens. We probably helped them more than just giving them intelligence information, but we don't know yet. This was when Iran Contra was taking place as well. So on the other hand, there were deals being made by the. With the Iranians in order to get American hostages released. So this wasn't the period of glory in American. American history.

[James Gelvin]

Yeah. And crack cocaine was an involved in that somehow.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah, I mean, basically this was something that, you know, was a very, very intricate series of maneuvers that was done by the American intelligence, by the Iranians, by, you know, the Israelis, et cetera, et cetera, to try to figure out a way of getting American hostages released in A way that would enable Reagan to have that sort of a victory over, you know, terrorism.

[James Gelvin]

None of it worked.

[Tucker Carlson]

It worked well. Taking hostages became sort of like a defeat, not worth.

[James Gelvin]

I mean, the eradication of terrorism was.

[Tucker Carlson]

Eradication of terrorism is not going to take place. I mean, we have this global war of terror. And the whole idea was, you know, we're going to get rid of terrorism.

[James Gelvin]

Yeah.

[Tucker Carlson]

We're going to get rid of murder, we're going to get rid of rape, we're going to get rid of burglary, we're going to get rid of any other crime. You know, we can't get rid of it. What you can do is you can police it and you could reduce the numbers, you can make the penalties higher and higher for trying to. To do it and make the risk greater and greater, but you're never going to get rid of it. So the thing with terrorism is that it works, you know, and, you know, certain times it works, sometimes it doesn't work. And, you know, but it's a tactic that people use and, you know, you can't get rid of a tactic.

[James Gelvin]

Which brings me to the conversation about Donald Trump, because, you know, his policy, but when he was running for his campaign was pretty much, let's kind of let them all burn. You know, we don't want to get involved in Middle Eastern affairs. I'm going to put America first. I'm not going to speak your tax dollars subsidizing foreign wars. Especially when we have so many problems here, like, you know, people can't afford to buy homes and eat and stuff like that in a lot of different places.

[Tucker Carlson]

There is an argument to be made about that. And, you know, there wouldn't have been either an Obama or a Donald Trump had there not been for the 2003 war in Iraq. They both owe their political careers to that in large measure. And, you know, Obama came by it honestly, at least he was anti war from the very beginning. Trump claims to have been anti war, you know, afterwards. So what's going on right now is a real. What many people in the America first movement believe is a betrayal. The idea of sort of being manipulated by the Jews again is not something that they want. But on the other hand, there's a certain amount of truth to this, which is the fact that in his first term, Trump handed American Middle east policy to Benjamin Netanyahu and Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. The idea being that, you know, he had a great deal of admiration for both of them. They got what they wanted and they were able to, to accomplish what they wanted at this point. I believe that again was Netanyahu was able to convince Trump that Israel is going to win this one. You know, so you want to get on the winning side. So this will be an easy win for your political base.

[James Gelvin]

Don't they have enough money and arms?

[Tucker Carlson]

They could always use more. I mean, I read in the Wall Street Journal that they were running out of some of the anti missile defenses.

[James Gelvin]

Just the scary thing is like what they've done in Gaza, you know, what's the current death toll? Is it above 55, 55, 56,000? US still cooperating with them after doing something like that, it's kind of giving them the green light to take it even further.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah, I mean you're absolutely right on that. And you know, the whole idea was I could see in the beginning Joe Biden saying, okay, look, we won't have any leverage whatsoever over the Israelis because they're really going to, you know, this one is really important to them. We won't have any leverage if we cut off weapons and that sort of stuff. So we'll keep weapons flowing and that way we can perh. Persuade the Israelis to take it a little easier maybe to go in for a cease fire. Something along those lines. Well, you know, the definition of craziness is, or insanity is, you know, doing the same thing over and over again and getting the same, getting the same results, you know, hoping for different results. And you know, this was insane, the Biden policy. And now you know what Trump is, you know, Trump is policy towards Gaza is just off the charts in terms of being ridiculous. The United States taking over Gaza, expelling its population building resort there. I mean that sort of thing as well. So Trump doesn't have any real policy. So he's following Netanyahu's lead.

[James Gelvin]

Yeah, because he's not very knowledgeable about the subject.

[Tucker Carlson]

Right. He's completely inept on the subject. You know, and he is somebody who not only is not knowledgeable, but he scorns knowledge.

[James Gelvin]

I mean, wasn't he able to get a majority of votes in places that had Arab, large Arab populations like Dearborn, Michigan?

[Tucker Carlson]

It was a combination of them sitting on their hands and voting for Trump. Yeah, because there's a of, lot of anger of a couple of things that for example, what Biden did during the Gaza war and also the fact that the Democrats were not willing to say that they were going to do anything different.

[James Gelvin]

I feel like we've covered a lot of the stuff on the Harvard campus recently in terms of anti Semitic versus anti Zionist and the differences and stuff like that. Let's just say anti semitic vs anti the nation of Israel. And it's unfortunate because I do feel like there will be an increase in genuine anti Semitism in the US over, over time. And it's kind of easy to fall into that trope. Not saying I'm falling into it, but sometimes you just think, is any politician allowed to stop Israel from what they're doing? Do we even have that power? And is it AIPAC funding? What is stopping intervention?

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, I mean, it's not just AIPAC funding. The United States has got these long chords of mystic memory, as Lincoln put it, with Israel. I mean, we were supporters of Israel, you know, pretty much all the way through the seventies to the present day. I mean, and Kennedy was the first one who called Israel an ally. We have. Israel was strategically important to us during the Cold War. Israel's interest in American interests have diverged since the end of the Cold War. And we can see that with Netanyahu. He's constantly crying wolf in terms of the Iranian nuclear program. So he moved against an American president who was looking to cool down the Middle East. He was trying to figure out a way of getting Israel closer to the American allies in the Gulf and Saudi Arabia in order to create this anti Iranian alliance. So, I mean, this is what's going on between Israel and the United States at the present time. Our interests have diverged. And so what Trump is doing is trying to realign American interests with Israeli interests. But he's doing it on Israeli terms, not on American terms.

[James Gelvin]

I just, sometimes I think, what has Israel done for us except for put our people in danger?

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, they'll take credit for a whole bunch of things as well. I mean, you know, Israel was there for the United States in terms of American policy during the Cold War. The latter part of the Cold War was what's called offshore balancing, which is the idea that the United States is going to be offshore, but the people who are going to be policing the region are going to be the people within the region itself. So in the west, you had Israel. In the east you had Saudi Arabia, and until 1979. And those are the people that were going to keep America's enemies at bay. So Israel was going to take care of Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran. We're going to take care of Iraq and make sure that the Soviets were not going to be, were going to be locked out of the region. And then with the end of the Cold War, with the threat no longer there. And with Syria undergoing its own civil war and that sort of thing, Iraq being taken out of the picture, Israel and American goals to have.

[James Gelvin]

It just seems like as far as keeping our enemies at bay in the Middle east, it seems like they've not only inflamed those enemies, but perhaps created new enemies all the time. I mean, if we get dragged into some sort of conflict with Iran that extends to anything close to an armed conflict where we have to deploy troops or at worst a draft, there's going to be like not only widespread anti Semitism in the US but also like 9, 11 every weekend.

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, yeah, there's a real danger. I mean, the thing is, is that the Israel's problem has always been with the Palestinians. Okay? I mean in 1948, which you have the creation of the Palestine refugee problem, the idea of Palestinians demanding sovereignty, et cetera, et cetera. And sometimes it's been masked in international relations. Sometimes it's been called an Arab Israeli war or Arab Israeli wars. It's not Arab Israelis. I mean, the root of the question is Israel versus Palestine. Palestine, okay? And this is what happened on October 7th. The idea that Hamas did not want to see the Palestine issue abandoned by the international community. Israel immediately Netanyahu began to make this into an Israel versus Iran conflict, not a Palestinian issue. The Palestinians became surrogates of the Iranians, became proxies of the Iranians along with the Hezbollah, along with the Syrians. And so this is open. Always been, as far as Netanyahu has been trying to define, it has been a conflict between Israel and Iran and not Israel and the Palestinians.

[James Gelvin]

It seems like there's really no solution for all these problems until that particular.

[Tucker Carlson]

Problem is there is a solution. It's not a military solution. I mean, the Palestine issue has got to be resolved.

[James Gelvin]

So the two state solution, two state.

[Tucker Carlson]

Solution, I mean ideal would be a one state solution in which both people's can cooperate and live together and sing Kumbaya. That ain't going to happen. So a two state solution is the ideal solution. It's getting later and later to be able to do that though, and the Israelis don't want that at all. Now apparently the Americans are saying, well, we're not really serious about a two state solution either. It's no way of telling. But you know, the thing is, is that again, Trump has been no friend of the Palestinians. Trump has been no friend of, you know, a two state solution. So what he attempted to do in his first term was to create a two state solution that was totally unworkable in his second term. What he's attempted to do is to create a problem in Gaza that would be resolved by American taking over Gaza and the expulsion of the population.

[James Gelvin]

What's Netanyahu's current approval rating inside of Israel?

[Tucker Carlson]

80% of the population support the attack on Iran. Now what his particular situation is is that's really sort of like that's less than the 80%, but it's still significantly higher than when he went into this war. And the idea being that, you know, people are rallying around the flag in Israel. This is sort of like a dream come true, that this upsets the entire chessboard. Israel, if they succeed in this, has no enemies in the Middle East. You know, they are have nothing but an upward trajectory.

[James Gelvin]

Yeah. We did a video recently called Israeli Hostage Transfer that analyzed some of the internal dynamics within the Israeli government and cabinet. And it seems like there's a faction in there called Jewish Power that's led by this guy Ben gvir. And they do not want a two state solution. In fact, they want the entire region to be controlled specifically by Israelis and have everyone else expelled.

[Tucker Carlson]

Right. I mean, if anything, the west bank is far more important to them than the Gaza.

[James Gelvin]

And they've been applying a ton of pressure on Netanyahu to keep the war going for as long as possible.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah. And Netanyahu's got pressure on. So look, you know, everybody talks about, you know, why Netanyahu is in this thing and the regime change, is it, you know, to get rid of nuclear weapons. There's two other reasons as well, one of which was to split up the negotiations the Americans were doing with the Iranians. You know, Americans were supposed to once again have another meeting with the Iranians the day after Israel began attack. Israel attacked. So the Iranians called off the meeting with the Americans to perhaps, you know, have some sort of nuclear agreement. And then the other reason is that Netanyahu is still facing corruption charges. He's. He's going to spend time in jail if his government falls. So.

[James Gelvin]

So it's really like a do or die situation for him. Not die, but like if his administration collapses, he automatically has to go to jail.

[Tucker Carlson]

He will be convicted of corruption, there's little doubt about that.

[James Gelvin]

And he's going to have to serve.

[Tucker Carlson]

Time in a. Ehud Olmert, who was one of his predecessors, certainly did.

[James Gelvin]

Wow. Would he serve time here?

[Tucker Carlson]

No, he served time in Israel.

[James Gelvin]

Oh, he'd be a really annoying inmate.

[Tucker Carlson]

The thing that's important about it is that at the Present time, it looks as though Netanyahu's popularity is such that his government is not going to fall. And if that costs Israeli lives, if that costs Iranian lives, so be it.

[James Gelvin]

So power versus human life.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah.

[James Gelvin]

What's going to win?

[Tucker Carlson]

Oh, power. Yeah.

[James Gelvin]

I think the question on everybody's mind, and since you're kind of the professor, you're kind of America's professor, as far as I'm concerned, is World War three, yes or no?

[Tucker Carlson]

No, no. World War iii. I mean, basically you have one nuclear power that's involved in this thing, including the United States. Then you get two nuclear powers that's involved in this thing. The other side doesn't have nuclear nuclear weapons yet. So I think that the way this is going to end up is that we saw today the response that the Iranians did to the Americans was fairly anemic, that they will probably continue to respond in a fairly anemic way. The idea being that we have to demonstrate the fact that we are going to respond. We're not going to take this, but you know, fundamentally, you know, we want you to lose interest, we want you to lose focus. And so what we're going to do is we're going to try to accumulate as quickly as possible enough materiel to build a nuclear bomb.

[James Gelvin]

So no cause for concern on the home front, right? You're not worried?

[Tucker Carlson]

Not at all.

[James Gelvin]

Not even an ounce of anxiety.

[Tucker Carlson]

There's possibility of terrorism. No nuclear terrorism though. Well, standard operating terrorism. That can be pretty terrifying as well.

[James Gelvin]

But not like a nuclear bomb.

[Tucker Carlson]

Not a wmd? No.

[James Gelvin]

If they did drop a wmd, which city do you think they they'd go for?

[Tucker Carlson]

I. No idea. I, I just so doubt that they would drop a wmd.

[James Gelvin]

You don't think it'd be here though, because it's too big?

[Tucker Carlson]

I don't see the reason it's not symbolically important enough. Los Angeles, I hate to say that to Los Angelenos.

[James Gelvin]

No, no, you're right.

[Tucker Carlson]

But New York, Washington is probably far more important. Not Philadelphia, the cradle of American democracy. No, I don't think that that. I mean, why was the World Trade center in the pet? Because they're symbolically important, you know, they're beautiful targets.

[James Gelvin]

Yeah. I've been reading a biography about Osama bin Laden and kind of, they talk about some of his journal entries. And one thing that he detested was the influence of what he saw as like urbanization in terms of planning in the Arab world and Islamic society in terms of these dense apartment buildings being built, you know, To, I guess, emulate the commerce.

[Tucker Carlson]

It's even worse, though. They're building all these new cities, like, you know, Neom in Saudi Arabia. And, you know, there's Mastar City and there's Silk City and there's a whole bunch of them. They're rebuilding Cairo, for example. What is the one thing that none of these cities have? A place where people can congregate? Yeah.

[James Gelvin]

No, there's no parks in Dubai.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah.

[James Gelvin]

There's just developments, resorts, indoor ski resorts.

[Tucker Carlson]

Where there's artificial soil and oversight.

[James Gelvin]

Yeah.

[Tucker Carlson]

The whole idea is they don't want another Tahrir Square. You know, they don't want protests to be able to break out in these places. They don't want people to be able to get to know each other. That's why, you know, one the of one of the places that Saudis are building is this place called the Line, which is this straight line city, so that people have very little contact with each other. It's not like a circular city or a huge city. Like there's going to be no Central park in any of these places. There's going to be no place that people can congregate.

[James Gelvin]

So they're trying to engineer loneliness to prevent uprising as a result of discussion.

[Tucker Carlson]

Even gets worse than that. What they're doing is they're creating smart cities. So these cities are the average smart city. Like, you know, you look at, you know, Zurich or a city like that takes 10% of people's data. These cities are going to take 90%, presenting people's data, you know, and, you know, integrate it. They're going to know, they bragged. They're going to know crimes before they committed. They said, yeah, you know, they're going to have their own special, you know, judiciary in Neom.

[James Gelvin]

I went to Dubai once and I was fascinated because, you know, you have all these buildings that are vaguely named after various important things in Islam. And you see scripture is like one of the tallest buildings of the Burj Khalifa. There's some sort of, like, there's various things in the architecture that relate to Islam and they have that. I don't know, they. I don't know exactly what the sculpture is, but it's this giant sculpture that I think is Koranical in some capacity. Yet as you drive down the main street in Dubai, all of the billboards are Hermes, Gucci. You see white Western models. Everything is Lamborghini, Ferrari. Just this obsession with, like, Western excess. And it made me realize the west has won, if not politically, through the consumer goods in Our global marketing campaign.

[Tucker Carlson]

The west has won in other ways as well. It's not just consumerism as well. This is sort of like, you know, you have an Islamic republic in Iran for example, but it's an Islamic republic. It's a model that was created in the west and was replicated around the world as well. This is something that, you know, where in the Quran or the Hadith, the collection of the sayings of the Prophet, where in that is there the idea of a republic? Where is there that the idea of a parliament? Where is there an idea, idea of elections and that sort of stuff as well? These are modern states and modern states follow a certain model. Now the model is not necessarily borrowed from the west but you know, old modern states have to do certain things. And so therefore the Iranian state is just as modern as any other nation state. And that's why when people say, well Iran, they're millenarial, they're crazy, they're you know, going to follow, you know, the, the most puritanical forms of Islam or something along those lines. That's nonsense. That's nonsense. They're a state like any other state. They have got the same requirements as any other state.

[James Gelvin]

Are there any Islamic cities or regions that still have that old school look, pre industrial city format?

[Tucker Carlson]

There's a lot of them, A lot of them because some of the places that were colonies or that were protectorates, they had modern cities that were built alongside the other cities. So the other cities with the so called natives quarters and then you have that right now, now they're very touristy.

[James Gelvin]

What do you think Osama would say is the most legit city in the Arab world?

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, he would of course say Mecca Medina. Well, I mean, which have been by the way, totally rebuilt, you know, as well.

[James Gelvin]

Gift shops and stuff.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah, yeah. And huge clock for example.

[James Gelvin]

We obviously know he loves Mecca, but if he had to pick a third.

[Tucker Carlson]

Best city, probably Jerusalem again these are symbolically, I mean, you know, symbolically important. And we shouldn't look at, you know, Osama bin Laden as being somebody who is sort of a primitive in any way.

[James Gelvin]

Oh no, not at all. I just mean, you know, because he obviously I'm not a supporter of Osama bin Laden, but I found it interesting that after 911 we weren't really able to figure out exactly why it happened because there was so much propaganda about like he hates that we're free, he hates the supermarket, he hates the baseball game. And then you had to kind of dig deeper and now I'm realizing what Grievances created the capacity for that kind of terrorism.

[Tucker Carlson]

The idea, each one of these groups has a separate strategy and a separate goal. What Osama bin Laden's strategy has always been is to vex and exhaust the enemy. So they thought that this is what happened in Afghanistan with the Soviet Union. They vexed and exhausted them. The Soviets put in a great deal of time, effort, money, blood and treasure into the Afghan war and they lost. And that caused a collapse of the Soviet Union. They expected the Americans to do things like invade Afghanistan, to invade Iraq, and this would vex and exhaust the Americans as well. So there's a whole thing with a trap. We fell right into the trap.

[James Gelvin]

And are we doing that again?

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah, we are.

[James Gelvin]

How do we get out?

[Tucker Carlson]

Number one, we should never have given up on the nuclear agreement with the Iranians. Number two, what we should do is figure out a way of resolving the Israel Palestine conflict that will be to the satisfaction of people of good wishes on both sides. Now there are a lot of people who aren't of those good wishes that are on both sides. But basically there's got to be a just solution to the Israel Palestine conflict.

[James Gelvin]

Hamas is still in power.

[Tucker Carlson]

Hamas is still in power forever? Not forever, no. But I mean, basically until there's an alternative.

[James Gelvin]

What would that be?

[Tucker Carlson]

There's no alternative on the table at the present time. I mean, there really is nothing. The Israelis are not suggesting an alternative to Hamas. The Palestinians can't. The Palestinian Authority in the west bank of course isn't capable of doing it. The Palestinians in Gaza are probably not capable of doing it. And right now they're looking out for the own survival. Hamas is truly integrated into society. It's going to be very hard to eradicate. And so what's going to have to happen is going to be you're going to have to learn to live with Hamas or you're going to have to learn to live with some sort of Hamas substitute.

[James Gelvin]

Would Israel fail as a state without our funding?

[Tucker Carlson]

Probably not, no. I mean, Israel has got a fairly strong economy, it's got a high tech economy. Even before the high tech economy, Israel had, you know, certain attributes that other states in the region didn't have. So Israel is fairly good in terms of now in terms of American arms and American military support. That's absolutely necessary for Israel's survival. But if Israel were to become like any other Mediterranean state, just a regular Mediterranean state, without this ambition that Israelis have or the Israeli government has, then it could probably prosper like any other Mediterranean state state would they would just.

[James Gelvin]

Have to calm down.

[Tucker Carlson]

That's one way of putting it.

[Donald Trump]

Yeah, there's that. As mentioned before, a ceasefire between Iran and Israel was brokered by Trump 30 minutes after this interview. And we wanted to give you an update on how that's playing out. It's worth mentioning that this was recorded on June 26, 2025. So things might change. But here's where we're at right now with the situation. The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran is holding for its third straight day following the deadly 12 day conflict between the two countries. President Trump announced that the US and Iran are expected to hold talks next week, though he downplayed the need for a formal agreement on Iran's nuclear program, stating, I don't care if I have an agreement or not. Meanwhile, Iran's parliament symbolically voted to suspend cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog. Escalating tensions. Still, both sides have begun steps towards normalcy. In Tehran, residents have returned from shelters, while schools and workplaces have reopened across Israel. Hopefully the trip truth stands and no more lives lost. But given the history of the region, we're all just going to have to cross our fingers.

[Tucker Carlson]

Channel 5 live worldwide, Hollywood and Vine. Fuck the authority. Channel 5 news, channel 55. We don't fuck with custards and 5 is the best number.