5CAST w/ Andrew Callaghan

Episode #13: Is The War in Gaza Really Over?

Guest: James Gelvin (historian and Middle East expert)
Date: October 23, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Andrew Callaghan welcomes back Middle East historian James Gelvin to discuss the current status of the conflict in Gaza, the so-called "peace deal," the broader prospects for Palestinian statehood, and the evolving geopolitics involving Israel, Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, and international actors. Gelvin gives a sober examination of whether the war is actually winding down, the flaws and ambiguities in the present ceasefire, and what might be next for Gaza, the West Bank, and the wider region.

The conversation covers three levels of potential "endings"—the immediate Gaza ceasefire, the ongoing existence and governance of Hamas, and the wider Arab-Israeli conflict—ultimately questioning whether any real resolution is in sight.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is the War Over? (00:02–01:21)

• Gelvin: "No." The conflict must be considered on three levels:
  • Hostage exchanges and redeployment ("looks like that's working").
  • Governance and control in Gaza: deal “has too many red lines,” time ambiguities, and unclear meanings.
  • The wider Arab-Israeli conflict: “There’s no way in hell it’s over. The only way this conflict is going to end is going to be a two state solution, period.”
• Notable Quote:

  "It's got too many ambiguities of meaning. So... Hamas was attacking Israeli collaborators and appointing governors. This does not look like an organization that's prepared to disarm or give up its role in governance."
  — James Gelvin (00:35)

2. Executions of Collaborators & Warlordism (01:21–03:13)

• Hamas is purging collaborators and clans with Israeli ties to prevent rival power structures.
• The Israeli strategy had hoped Gaza would collapse into warlordism; this didn’t occur due to Hamas' tightly integrated control.
• Notable Quote:

  “Warlordism tends to occur where there isn’t some sort of central power... Gaza had effective central control, even under attack.”
  — James Gelvin (02:34)

3. Disarmament & The "Peace Deal" (03:13–05:56)

• Complete disarmament of Hamas is highly unlikely; Hamas might surrender some weapons but not all.
• Trump’s plan ambiguous on security, with contradictions: “Trump is actually saying that it’s necessary that disarmament not occur.”
• Gelvin critiques Trump’s inconsistency and highlights alleged self-interest (relations with Qatar, Nobel Prize ambitions).
• Notable Quote:

  “One of the things about Trump is the lack of consistency. Netanyahu was counting on Trump to be a consistent ally... and then all of a sudden, he got duped by Trump.”
  — James Gelvin (04:15)

4. Ceasefire vs. Peace Deal: Ambiguity and Implementation (05:56–07:55)

• “It’s not a peace deal. It’s a ceasefire deal... very big difference.”
• Stage two: international security force, technocratic Palestinian government, Israeli redeployment, and Hamas disarmament.
• No clarity on who would staff the international force. Unlikely the U.S. will contribute troops; Indonesia discussed as possible contributor, but with controversy.
• Plan is likely to collapse under the weight of mutual distrust.

5. Collapse Scenarios and Future of Statehood (07:55–09:36)

• The plan may collapse over accusations between Israel and Hamas (e.g. hostages, disarmament).
• The plan “makes a nod” to statehood but avoids formal commitment. Netanyahu firmly opposes Palestinian statehood.

6. False Autonomy and Leadership Selection (09:36–11:14)

• Any new Gaza administration would lack real autonomy due to Israeli control over resources and movement.
• Leadership might come from diaspora Palestinians, but their willingness to return is doubtful.
• U.S. and Israeli influence over leadership selection is significant.

7. Palestinian Authority (PA) and Internal Divisions (11:14–13:52)

• PA (West Bank) and Hamas (Gaza) are rivals; previous civil war led to split.
• PA seen more diplomatically legitimate, but Oslo process is dead; international recognition efforts are an end-run around Israeli negotiations.
• Notable Quote:

  “Now you got two sole legitimate representatives of the Palestinian people. You have Hamas in Gaza and you have the PA in the West Bank.”
  — James Gelvin (12:31)

8. Expanding Settlements and Settler Violence (13:52–16:57)

• Expansion in the West Bank divides Palestinian territories further, undermines prospects for a viable state.
• Settler violence (arson, assaults) occurs with impunity or is condoned by hard-right Israeli factions.
• Notable Quote:

  “The army just stands by and does nothing while this is taking place.”
  — James Gelvin (15:52)

9. Religious Claims, Third Temple, and Erasure of Palestinian Presence (16:57–20:32)

• Religious justifications for annexation are influential but not mainstream policy.
• Both hardline Israeli and Hamas rhetoric embed non-negotiable religious claims to land.
• Palestinian Authority rarely able to physically intervene against settler extremists due to jurisdictional limitations.

10. Reconciliation and Leadership (21:14–23:43)

• PA-Hamas reconciliation fraught, sometimes likened to a couple on the verge of divorce.
• Marwan Barghouti is a rare figure with cross-faction appeal, but remains imprisoned (serving multiple life sentences).
• Legitimacy of elections and true popularity of factions are impossible to measure.

11. Hamas's Rise, Sinwar, and October 7th (23:44–25:57)

• Hamas originally rose with indirect Israeli tolerance as a counterweight to the PLO.
• Yahya Sinwar, Hamas leader, widely considered a "bloody criminal" for organizing attacks focused on civilians.
• October 7th attack seen as a deliberate effort to refocus international attention on the Palestinian issue.

12. Public Opinion Under Occupation (25:57–26:56)

• Gelvin doubts the ability to accurately assess Hamas's popularity given wartime conditions and repressive environment.
• Palestinian civilians "held hostage" to the agendas of armed factions.

13. Future Scenarios: Reinvasion or “Mowing the Grass” (26:56–28:22)

• No prospects for peace between Israel and a Hamas-governed Gaza.
• Israel will either reinvade or resume the periodic strategy of depleting Hamas by force.

14. Prospects for Statehood, International Recognition, and U.S. Policy (28:22–31:38)

• Growing international recognition of Palestine, but Netanyahu and far-right factions resist any two-state solution.
• Settlement expansion has likely destroyed the territorial basis for a real Palestinian state.
• U.S. political support for Israel shaped by history, shared interests, and habit—not solely by conspiratorial "blackmail" claims.

15. Shift in U.S. Public Opinion and Generational Change (29:04–30:58)

• Gelvin notes younger Americans increasingly sympathize with Palestinian aspirations.
• Influence of AIPAC and similar lobbying groups is waning.

16. David vs. Goliath: Israeli Power Since 1948 (30:58–33:04)

• Israel often depicted itself as David, but was in fact organizationally and militarily superior in 1948.
• Palestinian strategic failures and internal divisions contributed to their ongoing dispossession.

17. Least Bad Scenario, Youth, and Potential Change (33:04–37:09)

• "There is no best case scenario…all bad choices."
• The least bad: a holding ceasefire, with Hamas distracted internally and not attacking Israel.
• Neither PA nor Hamas is trusted to govern a viable state; new leadership is urgently needed.

18. Palestinian National Attachment and Memory (35:20–36:43)

• Deep-rooted attachment to land—most Gazans are already refugees—makes voluntary resettlement highly unlikely.
• Traumatic national history (Nakba, wars) has intensified resolve to hold onto homeland.
• Notable Quote:

  “Tragedies are better than victories because tragedies... inspire people to fight… The Nakba was very important in instilling a sense of nationness among Palestinians.”
  — James Gelvin (36:43)

19. Final Thoughts (37:09–End)

• Gelvin reiterates there are only "least bad" options and underscores the volatility and instability of current arrangements.
• Potential for youth-led future change, but current leaders and structures are deeply dysfunctional.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• "The only way this conflict is going to end is going to be a two state solution, period."
  — James Gelvin (00:21)

• "It's fundamentally, is this really sort of autonomous, or is this sort of like a false autonomy?"
  — James Gelvin (09:49)

• "Israel can only get bigger and Palestine can only get smaller."
  — James Gelvin (14:34)

• "The extreme right in Netanyahu’s cabinet... basically they want all Palestinians out."
  — James Gelvin (16:21)

• "There is no best case scenario moving forward. I mean, basically there's all bad choices."
  — James Gelvin (33:09)

Timeline & Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:02–01:21 — Is the war actually over? What remains unresolved?
• 01:21–03:13 — Collaborator executions and Israeli strategy's failure to ignite warlordism in Gaza.
• 03:13–05:56 — Disarmament debate, Trump's plan, U.S. role.
• 05:56–07:55 — Nature of the ceasefire; feasibility of international security force.
• 09:03–09:36 — The plan and (lack of) commitment to Palestinian statehood.
• 13:52–16:57 — Settlement expansion, settler violence, and new "facts on the ground."
• 20:48–23:43 — Factionalism, Barghouti's potential, and legitimacy crises.
• 23:44–25:57 — Sinwar, October 7th, and the logic behind Hamas' actions.
• 28:22–31:38 — Israel’s shifting narrative and generational changes in the U.S.
• 33:09–37:09 — Scenarios for the future; prospects for youth-led change.
• 36:43 — The impact of tragedy on Palestinian nationhood and attachment to land.

Summary Tone

The conversation is sober, often cynical, and deeply analytical—true to Gelvin’s historian perspective. Andrew maintains a probing but conversational style, often referencing both recent news and common audience perceptions (including conspiracy theories and pop culture). Gelvin frequently corrects misconceptions, provides context, and challenges both Israeli and Palestinian leadership with equal skepticism.

For Listeners

Anyone looking for a clear-eyed, detailed dissection of current Israeli-Palestinian dynamics and U.S. involvement will find this episode invaluable. The bad news: there are no quick fixes or breakthroughs in sight—just more tough questions and complexities to reckon with.