Podcast Summary: A Book with Legs
Episode: Kenneth R. Rosen – Polar War
Host: Cole Smead, Smead Capital Management
Date: January 19, 2026
Overview
In this engaging episode, host Cole Smead interviews award-winning journalist and author Kenneth R. Rosen about his latest book, Polar War: Submarines, Spies and the Struggle for Power in a Melting Arctic. The discussion delves into why the Arctic is rapidly becoming a flashpoint for global competition, the complex intersection of climate change and geopolitics, and the often-overlooked human, ecological, and strategic dimensions of the region. Rosen brings an on-the-ground, narrative-rich approach, sharing stories and analysis that illustrate both the absurdity and seriousness of Great Power rivalries in the Far North.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Origins and Motivation for 'Polar War'
- Rosen’s introduction to the Arctic began with a reporting trip to Svalbard for Politico magazine, initially focused on local security risks, which broadened into an exploration of global Arctic trends.
- Recent incidents, like the severing of undersea cables, signaled increasing global interest and vulnerability in the region.
- The book traces climate change and geopolitics as dual, interlinked stressors impacting not just the Arctic, but life in lower latitudes (03:28).
2. The Shift from Heroic Exploration to Tourist Access (03:51)
- Rosen contrasts historic, perilous Arctic expeditions with present-day accessibility via (albeit expensive) flights:
“Now after the Second World War...I can simply book a flight and get to a remote community.”
- High travel costs often relate to weather delays, not luxury.
3. The 'Whiskey War' and Arctic Humor in Geopolitics (05:34)
- A 50-year tongue-in-cheek dispute over Hans Island saw Denmark and Canada trade national liquors and flags rather than shots.
- Recently "resolved" by literally splitting the rock, it serves as a metaphor for the historically cooperative, sometimes comical, but lately more tense nature of Arctic politics.
4. From ‘Zone of Peace’ to Strategic Frontline (08:06)
- The Arctic was called a “zone of peace” by Gorbachev in the waning Cold War days (08:25).
- Recent military build-ups and rhetoric have shifted perception to a ‘zone of war’ or the ‘new ice curtain,’ echoing Cold War terminology.
5. Defining Boundaries & Melts Impact (09:22)
- Territorial claims were historically based on the 200-mile exclusive economic zone.
- Melting sea ice is opening new shipping lanes and prompting disputes over newly-accessible areas (10:43).
6. Ecological Transformations – Cloudberries & Fauna (11:04)
- The warming climate has allowed species like cloudberries to grow in Svalbard for the first time, signaling dramatic ecosystem shifts.
- Ripple effects include changes in local food webs and wildlife patterns (12:32).
7. Russia’s Arctic Exceptionalism and ‘Ice Curtain’ (13:17 & 16:48)
- Western nations struggle to understand or monitor Russia’s Arctic intentions post-Ukraine invasion as cooperation evaporates:
"The ice currently refers to the inability for Western countries to understand...what Russia intends to do..." (13:26)
- For Russia, the Arctic is a matter of national identity and pride.
8. Svalbard: Once No Man’s Land, Now Tightening Control (18:54)
- Svalbard’s visa-free status historically made it unique, but Norway now restricts rights for non-Norwegian residents as geopolitics intrude (19:08, 21:08).
- Foreigners’ experiences reflect the region’s evolving tensions.
9. Risks and Aggressions: Cable Cuts & Illegal Fishing (22:28)
- Undersea cable sabotage and illegal fishing are rising:
“Who would benefit from severing communications to an island...they have a small community on and maybe potentially want to expand on?”
- Rosen suggests superpower probing of vulnerabilities, with Russia and China as likely actors.
10. Life under the Arctic Sun (and Without It) (23:55)
- Hallucinations and circadian chaos are normal due to extreme light conditions—a metaphor for the disorientation that pervades Arctic affairs.
11. Surviving the Elements: ‘1:10:1 Myth’ (26:38)
- Arctic survival rule: 1 minute to control breath, 10 minutes of meaningful movement, 1 hour to rescue before fatality.
12. The Politics (and Theater) of the Arctic (28:15 – 33:41)
- The Arctic Circle assembly is seen by Rosen as sometimes performative, with real issues (like indigenous rights) sidelined in favor of military and economic concerns.
- Regulatory confusion—such as differing standards for icebreakers—reflects a larger inability to coordinate.
13. Cooperation and Its Decline (33:41)
- While Arctic nations historically collaborated on search and rescue, militarization rhetoric (especially from the U.S. circa 2017+) has eroded trust.
14. Russia’s Disrupt-and-Divide Strategy (36:11)
- Rosen observes:
"If [Russia] can...let us tear each other apart, by turning us against our allies and our friends...that's the plan."
- The Arctic is a proving ground for disinformation and destabilization.
15. Alaska: From ‘Seward’s Folly’ to Strategic Asset (37:39)
- The 19th-century U.S. purchase of Alaska is now a source of Russian regret and American strategic leverage.
16. Challenges of Arctic Living (40:26)
- Even Russia struggles to keep people in the Arctic; infrastructure and opportunities are limited outside the extraction and military sectors.
17. Comparisons – U.S., Canada, Greenland (41:55 – 45:42)
- Canada excels at ice-breaking but lacks modern equipment.
- Greenland’s quest for independence from Denmark involves courting foreign investment but is complicated by political and economic ties.
18. American Military (Un-)Preparedness in the Far North (46:22)
- Rosen recounts U.S. troops’ “arrogance and under-preparedness” in cold weather training, highlighting America’s knowledge gap despite global reach.
- The U.S. has only one full-time Arctic Army unit—the 11th Airborne Division (“Arctic Angels”)—which faces its own challenges.
19. Strategic Icebreakers – The U.S.S. Healy vs. KB Svalbard (50:10)
- The U.S.'s main icebreaker is “woefully outdated” compared to Norway’s modern, comfortable KB Svalbard.
- Logistics, maintenance, and even basic cold-weather readiness are current U.S. shortcomings.
20. Espionage and Paranoia (54:29)
- The Arctic's espionage history continues, with both locals and foreigners under suspicion amid recent Russian defections and suspicion about every outsider's intentions.
21. Invasive Species and Ecological Disruption (55:20)
- Russian-introduced pink salmon threaten native stocks and broader ecology in Norway.
- Loss of cross-border cooperation worsens environmental monitoring and response.
22. Border Oddities and Local Culture (57:08)
- Quirky features like border posts with Instagram pages reflect both the humor and the seriousness with which borders are kept in the North.
23. Post-Ukraine Invasion Migrant Flows (57:53)
- Russia attempts to weaponize migration, pushing displaced people into Norway and Finland to sow discord and instability.
24. (Secret) Strategic Infrastructure (60:41)
- Alaska is home to at least one secret U.S. submarine base; Chinese surveillance balloon overflights are reminders of constant strategic jockeying.
25. Life on the Dalton Highway and Small-Town Alaska (61:39)
- Life-or-death situations on icy roads mirror larger themes: miscommunication can have fatal consequences, both for individuals and nations.
26. Barroom Antics and American Attitudes (63:21)
- A vivid bar scene (“Rats” in Dutch Harbor) typifies both the wildness of the region and the American “casual indifference” Rosen finds troubling.
27. The Trans-Alaska Pipeline and the Last Spruce (67:11)
- The pipeline’s impact on the landscape and economy is mixed; the anecdote about the “last spruce tree” serves as a parable of taking-from-but-not-stewarding the land.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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On the change in Arctic risk:
“It once took courage to go to the Arctic. Now it only takes time and cash.” – Rosen [03:28]
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On Russia’s Arctic exceptionalism:
“It’s part of their blood...this defines the Russian culture and is a part of their character, their strength.” – Rosen [16:48]
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On contemporary U.S. posture:
“We don't possess the same sway that we once did...that's unfortunate.” – Rosen [16:48]
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On threats to Svalbard:
“...as Russia becomes more brazen and China becomes more brazen, they're testing vulnerabilities...” – Rosen [22:54]
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On American military preparedness:
“The story that I'll share is one of extreme arrogance and I think, you know, wholly American...they come back only to find themselves sunburned.” – Rosen [46:40]
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On climate change and new species:
“...some precious changes occurring in the high north that do have these unknown outcomes...” – Rosen [12:32]
Highlighted Timestamps
- 03:28 – Courage vs. Convenience in the Arctic
- 05:34 – The “Whiskey War” and Arctic Border Comedy
- 08:25 – Gorbachev’s “Zone of Peace” Speech
- 10:43 – Shifting Territorial Claims
- 13:26 – The “Ice Curtain" and Russia’s Ambitions
- 16:48 – Russia’s Arctic Exceptionalism vs. U.S. Influence
- 22:54 – Threats: Cable Sabotage and Illegal Fishing
- 26:38 – The ‘1:10:1’ Arctic Survival Myth
- 28:15 – The Artic Circle Assembly as “Arctic Circus”
- 36:11 – Russia’s Destabilization Strategy
- 40:26 – Challenges Retaining Population in Arctic Russia
- 46:40 – U.S. Military's Struggles in Arctic Training
- 50:10 – U.S. Icebreaker (Healy) vs. Norway’s Svalbard
- 54:29 – Espionage and Suspicion in Northern Borderlands
- 55:20 – Invasive Pink Salmon and Ecological Fallout
- 62:07 – Miscommunications on the Dalton Highway
- 63:21 – Bar Culture and Coast Guard Antics in Dutch Harbor
- 67:11 – The Trans-Alaska Pipeline and “The Last Spruce”
Tone & Style
Rosen’s style is direct, at times wryly humorous, often tinged with skepticism about both American and international self-congratulation. Smead’s questions are informed but conversational, drawing out technical, historical, and personal stories with a focus on how they inform investment and global risk mental models.
For Listeners
Polar War is essential reading for anyone interested in the intersection of climate, conflict, and commerce at the top of the world. The podcast episode provides an accessible but nuanced entry point into the issues—with stories that make the far north feel immediate, strange, and deeply relevant.
Where to Follow
Kenneth R. Rosen maintains an updated website at kennethrrosen.com, but has opted for a social-media-free lifestyle.
Final Takeaway
As the Arctic transforms from a “zone of peace” to a global flashpoint, the region’s fate will reverberate—ecologically, economically, strategically—far beyond the melting sea ice. For investors, policy-makers, and curious minds alike, understanding the realities (and illusions) of the Far North is no longer optional.