A Book with Legs – The Smead Book List: Winter 2025
Podcast: A Book with Legs
Host: Smead Capital Management (Cole Smead, Seamus Sullivan, Will Keenan, Nick Garcia)
Date: December 29, 2025
Episode Overview
In this quarterly book list episode, CEO and Portfolio Manager Cole Smead convenes the Smead Capital Management analyst team—Seamus Sullivan, Will Keenan, and Nick Garcia—for a roundtable discussion of their recent, current, and recommended reads. The team debates how investment literature shapes their worldview, shares insights from a broad range of finance, business, history, and economic books, and ties reading recommendations back to current market themes such as inflation, interest rates, and changing asset preferences. This episode is a dynamic blend of book talk, market wisdom, and conversational analysis, offering listeners both investment insights and a rich list of reading ideas.
Key Discussion Points & Book Reviews
1. Books Recently Read by the Team
(Timestamps refer to discussion starting around [01:34] onward.)
Seamus Sullivan
- “1929” by Andrew Ross Sorkin
- Refresher on the personalities and granular backstory behind the crash.
- Main takeaway: Modern markets differ in that past eras tolerated failure and bankruptcy, allowing refresh and innovation, while today’s environment prioritizes preventing discomfort and loss.
- Quote:
“We have to keep everybody safe…That dichotomy of back then versus today…I think was kind of the major theme I took away from it.” – Seamus [02:26]
Nick Garcia
- “When Genius Failed” by Roger Lowenstein
- Story of Long-Term Capital Management, leverage, and financial hubris.
- Timely rereading given current market craziness and lessons on correlation and risk.
- Quote:
“It tells you the story of caution around leverage and thinking you’re smarter than the next guy…” – Nick [03:03]
Will Keenan
- “The Aspirational Investor” by Ashvin Chabra
- Noted for clear writing on goals-based investing and asset allocation using options analogies.
- “Birthright” – History of U-Haul
- Case study on long-term family businesses and messy internal dynamics.
- “Railroader”
- Parallels between the historic railroad capex bust and current AI capex boom; a cautionary tale on capital-intensive industries.
- Quote:
“Railroad industry…had been for over 150 years a very poor return on capital business… Just an important note of caution for capital intensive industries.” – Will [05:37]
Cole Smead
- “Junk to Gold” by Willis Johnson
- The Copart story—turning junkyard scraps into a value-added, international business.
- Reflection on market adaptation and cumulative advantage.
- Additional Mentions:
- “The History of Money” by David McWilliams (money as language analogy)
- “Taking Religion Seriously” by Charles Murray
- “Friends Until the End” by James Grant
- “The Origins of Efficiency” by Brian Potter (Lean/6 Sigma made practical)
- “Inflation: A Guide for Users and Losers” by Mark Blyth & Niccolo Fracolini
- Argues that inflation’s winners and losers divide society, and conventional wisdom over-emphasizes the plight of wealth holders.
- Quote:
“All inflation does is just divide society. And you always hear from the people that lose the most.” – Cole [08:54]
2. Currently Reading
([09:37] – [15:26])
Seamus Sullivan
-
“Life After Capitalism” by George Gilder
- Emphasis on information as the true incentive in capitalism; “wealth as knowledge.”
- “Information is surprise”—true learning occurs when expectations are upended (scientific method/applications in markets).
- Quote:
“Information is surprise…When you’re doing something, the feedback that you get…you actually gain more information…than you would if it was just confirming.” – Seamus [10:25]
-
“Pattern Breakers” by Peter Zilberman
- Examines VC and tech inflection points, e.g., Uber and Airbnb’s technological leverage.
Nick Garcia
- “The Fairfax Way” by David Thomas
- Biography of Fairfax Financial’s Prem Watsa; charting his journey from engineering to value investing after discovering Ben Graham.
- Quote:
“If you’re interested in that sort of thought, reading Prem Watsa’s letters is a great place…this book is really well written…” – Nick [13:19]
Will Keenan
- “A War Like No Other” by Victor Davis Hanson
- The Peloponnesian War as case study in non-existential, avoidable wars and the fragility of golden ages.
- “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.”
- Quote:
“It just reminds us how…many of the same follies…happened again in history because history doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.” – Will [14:12]
- “For Blood and Money” (Biotech industry)
- Behind the scenes of blockbuster drug development, including anecdotes about Merck’s Keytruda.
Cole Smead
- “Evergreen” (about West Fraser Timber and the timber industry)
- Explores the technological evolution in lumber, material science (Jim Tour references), and the historical role of timber and coal in economic change.
- Parallels with technological revolutions and nature’s complexity.
- Quote:
“You know, we can study the inside of a tree, but we can’t replicate the tree.” – Cole [15:49]
3. Books Recommended by Others / On Their To-Read List
([20:59] – [26:02])
Seamus Sullivan
- “Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk” by Peter Bernstein
- History and evolution of probability, underwriting, and the market’s relationship to risk.
- Noted for “a fun panorama of the history of probability.” [21:28]
Nick Garcia
- “Caesars Palace Coup” by Max Frumes and Sujeet Indap
- Insight into the Las Vegas Strip, post-pandemic shifts, targeting of high-income and local clientele, and broader economic implications.
- Quote:
“I think the shift has been, it is more for a higher income customer…” – Nick [24:05]
Will Keenan
- “Odd Man In” (biography of Norton Simon, industrialist and art collector)
- “Mr. 5%” (biography of Calouste Gulbenkian, oil magnate and art collector)
Cole Smead
- “Polar War” by Ken Rosen (geopolitics/Greenland)
- “The Land Trap” by Mike Bird (housing/land)
- “The Age of Extraction” by Tim Wu (big tech, market failures, net neutrality)
- Anticipated deep dive into whether free markets correct excesses and whether tech’s dominance is a case of market failure.
- Quote:
“If I go back to your discussion on 1829, markets can fail pretty often… and cause perverse things to happen.” – Cole [27:31]
4. Market & Investment Environment Reflections
([29:10] – [48:11])
Interest Rate Outlook
-
Debated direction and interpretation of the 10-year and short-term rates a year out; range of opinions, mostly cautious or neutral.
- Seamus:
“I think it’s going to be higher… bond markets are not trusting what is going on.” [29:10]
- Nick:
“Ten year potentially up or flat. I think short term rates will be down. That creates a good environment for banks…” [31:05]
- Cole:
“…the government is a very self-serving animal… is it in the government’s interest to have the long end of the bond market go higher? The answer’s no.” [34:21] “I could see a reality where the devil in my head loses because ultimately, the government seeks out what they want.” [35:14]
- Seamus:
-
Recognition of market unpredictability:
- Quote (Seamus):
“People should be very cautious of thinking we actually control a lot of the things that we think we control. And to your point, it could go up or down. I don’t know.” [36:49]
- Quote (Cole):
“It’s not like physics where if you throw this pen, you know where it’s going to go…” [37:22]
- Quote (Seamus):
Asset Allocation & Societal Wealth
-
The team examines charts of household asset allocation (stocks vs real estate) and forward returns, pondering cycles, opportunity cost, and relative value.
- Will:
“When…conversation at cocktail parties is people’s 401(k) portfolios, that’s a red flag.” [40:30]
- Seamus:
“When people think they can’t lose money in their homes… buy a lot of home… that’s not the way it’s supposed to work.” [40:56]
- Nick/Cole:
“Who owns stocks? …who owns real estate? Everyone else… the average person did really well.” [45:16]
- Will:
-
On housing as a multi-dimensional asset:
- Seamus:
“The utility part of the home too is an interesting thing… I get more out of the house… making memories, etc. over the value of it, too.” [44:36]
- Seamus:
-
On economic cycles and investment relative opportunity:
- Cole:
“It’s a long-range chart… looking over a 10-year period, what are the great odds out there?” [47:15] “If you bought a house relative to, you know, going into the S&P 500… you’ll win on the house.” [42:35]
- Cole:
Notable Quotes
- “We have to keep everybody safe…That dichotomy of back then versus today…I think was kind of the major theme I took away from it.” – Seamus, on market attitudes toward failure and loss [02:26]
- "Information is surprise.” – Seamus, summarizing George Gilder's thesis [10:25]
- “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.” – Will, on lessons from historical wars [14:12]
- “All inflation does is just divide society. And you always hear from the people that lose the most.” – Cole, on the true story of inflation [08:54]
- “When… conversation at cocktail parties is people’s 401(k) portfolios, that’s a red flag.” – Will, on market froth [40:30]
- "It’s not like physics where if you throw this pen, you know where it’s going to go..." – Cole, on the complexity of markets [37:22]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [01:34] – Team begins sharing recent reads and takeaways
- [09:37] – Shift to “currently reading” books across team members
- [20:59] – Books recommended by others/on to-read lists
- [29:10] – Discussion of interest rate environment and market implications
- [40:30] – Reflections on household asset allocations and market cycles
- [44:36] – Broader discussion of housing, wealth inequality, and economic history
- [47:15] – Final thoughts on long-term odds for various asset classes
Conclusion
This installment of "A Book with Legs" delivers a rich book list and insightful dialogue connecting literary themes to real-world investing. The Smead analysts combine curiosity, humility, and humor, revealing the mental models guiding their discipline. For anyone seeking high-level investment conversation, reading inspiration, and a direct line to the current thinking among value-focused fund managers, this episode is indispensable.
The Smead Book List – Winter 2025 (Highlights)
- 1929 (Andrew Ross Sorkin)
- When Genius Failed (Roger Lowenstein)
- The Aspirational Investor (Ashvin Chabra)
- Birthright (History of U-Haul)
- Railroader
- Junk to Gold (Willis Johnson)
- The History of Money (David McWilliams)
- Friends Until the End (James Grant)
- The Origins of Efficiency (Brian Potter)
- Inflation: A Guide for Users and Losers (Blyth & Fracolini)
- Life After Capitalism (George Gilder)
- Pattern Breakers (Peter Zilberman)
- The Fairfax Way (David Thomas)
- A War Like No Other (Victor David Hanson)
- For Blood and Money
- Evergreen
- Against the Gods (Peter Bernstein)
- Caesars Palace Coup (Frumes & Indap)
- Odd Man In (Norton Simon bio)
- Mr. 5% (Calouste Gulbenkian bio)
- Polar War (Ken Rosen)
- The Land Trap (Mike Bird)
- The Age of Extraction (Tim Wu)
For more recommendations or to suggest a book, email podcast@smeadcap.com or message @smeadcap on X (formerly Twitter).
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