A Book with Legs – The Smead Book List: Winter 2025

Podcast: A Book with Legs
Host: Smead Capital Management (Cole Smead, Seamus Sullivan, Will Keenan, Nick Garcia)
Date: December 29, 2025

Episode Overview

In this quarterly book list episode, CEO and Portfolio Manager Cole Smead convenes the Smead Capital Management analyst team—Seamus Sullivan, Will Keenan, and Nick Garcia—for a roundtable discussion of their recent, current, and recommended reads. The team debates how investment literature shapes their worldview, shares insights from a broad range of finance, business, history, and economic books, and ties reading recommendations back to current market themes such as inflation, interest rates, and changing asset preferences. This episode is a dynamic blend of book talk, market wisdom, and conversational analysis, offering listeners both investment insights and a rich list of reading ideas.

Key Discussion Points & Book Reviews

1. Books Recently Read by the Team

(Timestamps refer to discussion starting around [01:34] onward.)

Seamus Sullivan

• “1929” by Andrew Ross Sorkin
  • Refresher on the personalities and granular backstory behind the crash.
  • Main takeaway: Modern markets differ in that past eras tolerated failure and bankruptcy, allowing refresh and innovation, while today’s environment prioritizes preventing discomfort and loss.
  • Quote:

    “We have to keep everybody safe…That dichotomy of back then versus today…I think was kind of the major theme I took away from it.” – Seamus [02:26]

Nick Garcia

• “When Genius Failed” by Roger Lowenstein
  • Story of Long-Term Capital Management, leverage, and financial hubris.
  • Timely rereading given current market craziness and lessons on correlation and risk.
  • Quote:

    “It tells you the story of caution around leverage and thinking you’re smarter than the next guy…” – Nick [03:03]

Will Keenan

• “The Aspirational Investor” by Ashvin Chabra
  • Noted for clear writing on goals-based investing and asset allocation using options analogies.
• “Birthright” – History of U-Haul
  • Case study on long-term family businesses and messy internal dynamics.
• “Railroader”
  • Parallels between the historic railroad capex bust and current AI capex boom; a cautionary tale on capital-intensive industries.
  • Quote:

    “Railroad industry…had been for over 150 years a very poor return on capital business… Just an important note of caution for capital intensive industries.” – Will [05:37]

Cole Smead

• “Junk to Gold” by Willis Johnson
  • The Copart story—turning junkyard scraps into a value-added, international business.
  • Reflection on market adaptation and cumulative advantage.
• Additional Mentions:
  • “The History of Money” by David McWilliams (money as language analogy)
  • “Taking Religion Seriously” by Charles Murray
  • “Friends Until the End” by James Grant
  • “The Origins of Efficiency” by Brian Potter (Lean/6 Sigma made practical)
• “Inflation: A Guide for Users and Losers” by Mark Blyth & Niccolo Fracolini
  • Argues that inflation’s winners and losers divide society, and conventional wisdom over-emphasizes the plight of wealth holders.
  • Quote:

    “All inflation does is just divide society. And you always hear from the people that lose the most.” – Cole [08:54]

2. Currently Reading

([09:37] – [15:26])

Seamus Sullivan

• “Life After Capitalism” by George Gilder

  • Emphasis on information as the true incentive in capitalism; “wealth as knowledge.”
  • “Information is surprise”—true learning occurs when expectations are upended (scientific method/applications in markets).
  • Quote:

    “Information is surprise…When you’re doing something, the feedback that you get…you actually gain more information…than you would if it was just confirming.” – Seamus [10:25]

• “Pattern Breakers” by Peter Zilberman

  • Examines VC and tech inflection points, e.g., Uber and Airbnb’s technological leverage.

Nick Garcia

• “The Fairfax Way” by David Thomas
  • Biography of Fairfax Financial’s Prem Watsa; charting his journey from engineering to value investing after discovering Ben Graham.
  • Quote:

    “If you’re interested in that sort of thought, reading Prem Watsa’s letters is a great place…this book is really well written…” – Nick [13:19]

Will Keenan

• “A War Like No Other” by Victor Davis Hanson
  • The Peloponnesian War as case study in non-existential, avoidable wars and the fragility of golden ages.
  • “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.”
  • Quote:

    “It just reminds us how…many of the same follies…happened again in history because history doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.” – Will [14:12]

• “For Blood and Money” (Biotech industry)
  • Behind the scenes of blockbuster drug development, including anecdotes about Merck’s Keytruda.

Cole Smead

• “Evergreen” (about West Fraser Timber and the timber industry)
  • Explores the technological evolution in lumber, material science (Jim Tour references), and the historical role of timber and coal in economic change.
  • Parallels with technological revolutions and nature’s complexity.
  • Quote:

    “You know, we can study the inside of a tree, but we can’t replicate the tree.” – Cole [15:49]

3. Books Recommended by Others / On Their To-Read List

([20:59] – [26:02])

Seamus Sullivan

• “Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk” by Peter Bernstein
  • History and evolution of probability, underwriting, and the market’s relationship to risk.
  • Noted for “a fun panorama of the history of probability.” [21:28]

Nick Garcia

• “Caesars Palace Coup” by Max Frumes and Sujeet Indap
  • Insight into the Las Vegas Strip, post-pandemic shifts, targeting of high-income and local clientele, and broader economic implications.
  • Quote:

    “I think the shift has been, it is more for a higher income customer…” – Nick [24:05]

Will Keenan

• “Odd Man In” (biography of Norton Simon, industrialist and art collector)
• “Mr. 5%” (biography of Calouste Gulbenkian, oil magnate and art collector)

Cole Smead

• “Polar War” by Ken Rosen (geopolitics/Greenland)
• “The Land Trap” by Mike Bird (housing/land)
• “The Age of Extraction” by Tim Wu (big tech, market failures, net neutrality)
  • Anticipated deep dive into whether free markets correct excesses and whether tech’s dominance is a case of market failure.
  • Quote:

    “If I go back to your discussion on 1829, markets can fail pretty often… and cause perverse things to happen.” – Cole [27:31]

4. Market & Investment Environment Reflections

([29:10] – [48:11])

Interest Rate Outlook

• Debated direction and interpretation of the 10-year and short-term rates a year out; range of opinions, mostly cautious or neutral.

  • Seamus:

    “I think it’s going to be higher… bond markets are not trusting what is going on.” [29:10]

  • Nick:

    “Ten year potentially up or flat. I think short term rates will be down. That creates a good environment for banks…” [31:05]

  • Cole:

    “…the government is a very self-serving animal… is it in the government’s interest to have the long end of the bond market go higher? The answer’s no.” [34:21] “I could see a reality where the devil in my head loses because ultimately, the government seeks out what they want.” [35:14]

• Recognition of market unpredictability:

  • Quote (Seamus):

    “People should be very cautious of thinking we actually control a lot of the things that we think we control. And to your point, it could go up or down. I don’t know.” [36:49]

  • Quote (Cole):

    “It’s not like physics where if you throw this pen, you know where it’s going to go…” [37:22]

Asset Allocation & Societal Wealth

• The team examines charts of household asset allocation (stocks vs real estate) and forward returns, pondering cycles, opportunity cost, and relative value.

  • Will:

    “When…conversation at cocktail parties is people’s 401(k) portfolios, that’s a red flag.” [40:30]

  • Seamus:

    “When people think they can’t lose money in their homes… buy a lot of home… that’s not the way it’s supposed to work.” [40:56]

  • Nick/Cole:

    “Who owns stocks? …who owns real estate? Everyone else… the average person did really well.” [45:16]

• On housing as a multi-dimensional asset:

  • Seamus:

    “The utility part of the home too is an interesting thing… I get more out of the house… making memories, etc. over the value of it, too.” [44:36]

• On economic cycles and investment relative opportunity:

  • Cole:

    “It’s a long-range chart… looking over a 10-year period, what are the great odds out there?” [47:15] “If you bought a house relative to, you know, going into the S&P 500… you’ll win on the house.” [42:35]

Notable Quotes

• “We have to keep everybody safe…That dichotomy of back then versus today…I think was kind of the major theme I took away from it.” – Seamus, on market attitudes toward failure and loss [02:26]
• "Information is surprise.” – Seamus, summarizing George Gilder's thesis [10:25]
• “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.” – Will, on lessons from historical wars [14:12]
• “All inflation does is just divide society. And you always hear from the people that lose the most.” – Cole, on the true story of inflation [08:54]
• “When… conversation at cocktail parties is people’s 401(k) portfolios, that’s a red flag.” – Will, on market froth [40:30]
• "It’s not like physics where if you throw this pen, you know where it’s going to go..." – Cole, on the complexity of markets [37:22]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:34] – Team begins sharing recent reads and takeaways
• [09:37] – Shift to “currently reading” books across team members
• [20:59] – Books recommended by others/on to-read lists
• [29:10] – Discussion of interest rate environment and market implications
• [40:30] – Reflections on household asset allocations and market cycles
• [44:36] – Broader discussion of housing, wealth inequality, and economic history
• [47:15] – Final thoughts on long-term odds for various asset classes

Conclusion

This installment of "A Book with Legs" delivers a rich book list and insightful dialogue connecting literary themes to real-world investing. The Smead analysts combine curiosity, humility, and humor, revealing the mental models guiding their discipline. For anyone seeking high-level investment conversation, reading inspiration, and a direct line to the current thinking among value-focused fund managers, this episode is indispensable.

The Smead Book List – Winter 2025 (Highlights)

• 1929 (Andrew Ross Sorkin)
• When Genius Failed (Roger Lowenstein)
• The Aspirational Investor (Ashvin Chabra)
• Birthright (History of U-Haul)
• Railroader
• Junk to Gold (Willis Johnson)
• The History of Money (David McWilliams)
• Friends Until the End (James Grant)
• The Origins of Efficiency (Brian Potter)
• Inflation: A Guide for Users and Losers (Blyth & Fracolini)
• Life After Capitalism (George Gilder)
• Pattern Breakers (Peter Zilberman)
• The Fairfax Way (David Thomas)
• A War Like No Other (Victor David Hanson)
• For Blood and Money
• Evergreen
• Against the Gods (Peter Bernstein)
• Caesars Palace Coup (Frumes & Indap)
• Odd Man In (Norton Simon bio)
• Mr. 5% (Calouste Gulbenkian bio)
• Polar War (Ken Rosen)
• The Land Trap (Mike Bird)
• The Age of Extraction (Tim Wu)

For more recommendations or to suggest a book, email podcast@smeadcap.com or message @smeadcap on X (formerly Twitter).

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