A Podcast of One’s Own with Julia Gillard

US Election Special with Amy Walter
Release Date: October 8, 2024

Episode Overview

In this timely US Election Special, Julia Gillard is joined by Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report and renowned American political analyst. Together, they break down the 2024 US presidential race, providing valuable context for international listeners and sharp insights into American electoral politics. The episode focuses on the mechanics of the Electoral College, the complex political geography of swing states, the influence of gender in this historic race (the first with a woman of color as a major party nominee), the salience of issues like the economy and reproductive rights, and the all-important question of who might win the closest watched election in living memory.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Scene: An Extraordinary Election Year

• Two assassination attempts on Donald Trump, now the Republican nominee and the first former president convicted of a felony.
• Joe Biden’s withdrawal post-disastrous debate, replaced by Kamala Harris—first woman of color to run for president as a major party nominee.
• Reproductive rights central after the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
• The gender gap and gendered commentary, including viral moments like the “cat lady” meme (05:35).

2. Understanding the US Electoral System

• Amy Walter explains the Electoral College:

  “This is something that is in the American Constitution... going back to the founding fathers who were worried that American voters themselves might be too overtaken by their immediate passions.” (02:58)

• 270 of 538 electoral votes needed.
• Most states reliably vote one way ("safe states"); a handful of "swing states" decide the outcome.
  • Key swing states: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin (06:45).

3. Deep Dive: The Seven Key Swing States

Julia and Amy dissect what defines each swing state, its unique politics, and the issues at play:

Sun Belt States:

• Arizona

  • Immigration front and center (shares border with Mexico), significant Latino population, fast growth via retirees and jobs.
  • “If we are going to see a real shift in that coalition, Arizona and Nevada are the place where it would show up.” (11:40)

• Nevada

  • Service-driven economy (Las Vegas), heavily affected by economic downturns, fast-growing, significant Hispanic vote.

• Georgia

  • “Georgia...is 30% black. The success that Democrats have had…at the federal level...getting the support of black voters is critical.” (12:20)
  • Diversifying suburbs (Asian, South Asian populations).
  • 2024 polling shows Trump making relative gains with Black men and younger Black men.

• North Carolina

  • No single dominant metro area, mix of small cities and rural regions, 20% Black voter share.
  • Recent unprecedented hurricane damage may impact rural voting logistics (15:00).
  • Key for Trump’s path to victory, especially if he wins Georgia and Pennsylvania as well.

Northern/Industrial Swing States:

• Wisconsin

  • Demographically could lean Republican, but historical progressive tradition, close rural-urban divides. (19:13)

• Michigan

  • More Democratic for its Black population (Detroit), rich union history.
  • New wrinkle: the Israel-Gaza war’s impact on the large Arab American community, where there’s discontent toward Democratic policy (21:00).

• Pennsylvania

  • “It really is the keystone for each one of the paths to 270 votes...” (22:59)
  • Distinct east (Philadelphia, urban-suburban), west (Pittsburgh, more Midwestern/rural), and swingy suburbs.
  • Fracking/energy is a wedge issue.
  • Election margins have been razor-thin: “Donald Trump won the state in 2016 by about 68,000 votes and Biden won by about 80,000.” (26:20)

4. Nationwide Issues Shaping the Vote

• Economy & Cost of Living

  • “Over the course of the four years that Biden and Harris have been in office, there's been a 20% increase in the cost of stuff. That's significant.” (30:05)
  • Trump campaigns on nostalgia for past prosperity and tough talk on immigration costs.
  • Harris pivots to affordability, focusing on specifics like prescription drugs and housing costs.
  • Trump's message discipline (or lack thereof) could tip the balance: “He has a hard time staying on message.” (34:40)

• Harris as a Change Candidate

  • Despite being Vice President, Harris manages to run as an agent of change:

    “If you don’t like the way things are now on cost of living, you know, I’m the change you need...” (36:24)

5. The Role of Gender and Race

• Historic Candidacy and Media Framing

  • Harris' ascent to nominee has dampened some of the direct focus on her gender and race versus 2016's Clinton campaign:

    “The real conversation is, is she going to be change or is she going to be more of the same? When we know there's one piece…she won't be more of the same.” (37:30)

  • A marked gender gap in this election, as in previous ones, but even more pronounced:
    • Harris: 44% of men, 54% of women
    • Trump: 54% of men, 43% of women (40:40)
  • “More women than men tend to vote, so usually it's 52% or so of the electorate will be female. So winning over women is critically important.” (41:15)

• Subtlety of Gender’s Impact

  • “The fact that we are not talking about it as openly as we were or as deliberately as we were in 2016... it is this thing that, when we come to the end of this campaign... we didn't really understand or appreciate it because we were dealing with so many other things at the same time.” (43:10)

6. Reproductive Rights and Abortion

• Post-Dobbs Political Landscape

  • Dobbs decision (overturning Roe v. Wade) deeply shapes this election.
  • “It is definitely an issue where Harris not only has a benefit, but a significant benefit over Trump…” (48:00)
  • Many voters may not list abortion as their #1 issue, but it can be the deciding vote influence, especially among women and younger voters.
  • Trump and Republicans are attempting to “both own... and distance” themselves from the Supreme Court decision. (48:45)

• Turnout Effects & Ballot Measures

  • Turnout rises when abortion is on the ballot: “2022... incredible turnout in places like Michigan, where there was an abortion referendum.”
  • In 2024, abortion access will be on the ballot in 10 states, including Arizona (a key swing state) and Florida (Trump’s home state).
  • Many voters plan to support abortion rights measures while also voting for Trump:

    “We’re seeing in both of those states... [voters] are saying, I’m going to vote for this referendum... and I’m also voting for Donald Trump. Those two things can exist in the same place.” (50:37)

7. Turnout and American Political Behavior

• Most Americans are consistent voters (“about 60%”), but the outcome hinges on the other 30-35% who can be motivated by issues, personality, or fear/opposition to a candidate. (52:00)
• Trump’s appeal is unusually personal; many who turn out for him “wouldn’t turn out for any old Republican.”
• For Democrats, turnout-boosting issues like abortion especially motivate young people and women.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “[The Electoral College] was something the founders did to temper the passions of the voters... what it means is that the popular vote does not determine the president.”
  — Amy Walter (02:58)

• “The state that will decide who the president is is Pennsylvania. If God could come down now and just tell me who won Pennsylvania, I could tell you who won.”
  — Amy Walter (58:30)

• “Winning over women is critically important. But even when you look at breaking it out by black men, Latino men, white men versus women of the same racial category… it’s just, again, these are on the margins.”
  — Amy Walter (41:10)

• “Trump has a hard time staying on message. All you have to do is talk about the economy and security… but that is not what he's doing.”
  — Amy Walter (34:40)

• “There are significant number of voters who are doing both things—they are saying, I'm going to vote for this referendum that’s going to expand reproductive access, and I'm also voting for Donald Trump. Those two things can exist in the same place.”
  — Amy Walter (50:37)

• “95% of Americans now say they're voting the same way today as they did four years ago, even though we've had a lot happen over the course of four years... which suggests that if that is the case, then the race will continue to be that close.”
  — Amy Walter (61:15)

Predictions & Final Thoughts

Who will win?

• The race is razor thin; Pennsylvania will likely be decisive (55:28).
• “It is going to be much like we saw in 2020, where we had to wait till Saturday.” (61:50)
• Should even a small polling error occur, a surprise landslide remains plausible.
• Ultimately, the race is about consolidating support and turnout more than persuasion:

  “If the polls are off in one way or the other, it could actually not be close at all.” (61:40)

Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |-----------|-------------------------------------| | 00:02 | Gender gap in US voting | | 02:58 | Electoral College explained | | 08:19 | Arizona & Nevada dynamics | | 12:20 | Georgia: demographics and politics | | 14:42 | North Carolina: disasters & politics| | 19:13 | Wisconsin politics | | 21:00 | Michigan & Israel/Gaza wrinkle | | 22:59 | Pennsylvania: The “keystone” state | | 30:05 | Economy as top issue | | 36:24 | Harris positioned as “change” | | 37:30 | Gender & race in Harris’s candidacy | | 40:40 | Gender gap in swing state polling | | 45:33 | Reproductive rights & Dobbs effect | | 50:37 | Ballot measures and split tickets | | 55:28 | Predictions; who might win? | | 61:15 | Why margins are so small |

Tone & Style

The discussion is thoughtful, data-driven, and insightful, characterized by Amy Walter’s measured analysis and Julia Gillard’s inquisitive, internationally minded questioning. The episode blends granular detail with accessible explanation, especially for non-US audiences, while remaining conversational and approachable.

For listeners seeking a nuanced understanding of the stakes, mechanics, and pivotal issues of the 2024 US election—especially as they relate to gender and equality—this episode offers a uniquely comprehensive and expert-driven guide.