A (11:23)
Yeah, so again, let me give again sort of maximum Kind of respect here, which is there's no question, a couple things. So just the secular changes. So one thing is, look, the streaming revolution has had a very big impact. And the streaming revolution hit Hollywood incredibly hard, very positively, for a stretch, basically through the 2000 and tens, because all the companies that were engaged in the streaming wars started spending just unprecedented amounts of money on televisions and shows of all. On shows and movies of all kinds. And so there was just a giant flood of money. And I would say the mood in Hollywood, I don't know, whatever eight years ago or something, six years ago, was, you might even describe as euphoric from a business standpoint, just because, like, I mean, the big thing was when Netflix scaled up to the point where they were spending like $20 billion a year on content, which is just like this, you know, this giant budget and everybody else, and they were like, you know, whatever, a dozen streaming companies or whatever, all the different platforms that wanted to compete. And so that money kind of took off like a rocket. And then what's happened is as the streaming, as the streamers are consolidating, as the streaming wars are kind of rationalizing that money got pulled back. That was a big kind of financial blow. And then the other thing that streaming did that has really affected things a lot in Hollywood in a very negative way, which is streaming cut off the financial upside to the. To films and tv. And so films used to, when they were hits, they first they would sell a lot of box office, um, and then they would. And then they would sell, like, the television rights or, you know, or, you know, ultimately the streaming rights. And then. And then they'd have this long aftermarket where they would, you know, sell DVDs, you know, videotape rentals in the 80s 90s and then DVDs in the 2000s and 2010s. And so if you had a movie that was a hit, like, it could run and, you know, it could run for years, generating just like enormous amounts of revenue and cash. And then, same thing with TV shows. You know, it used to be a successful TV show. The line, I think, was six seasons and a movie where if it got to like, whatever, a hundred episodes or something, it would enter syndication, and then you could sell it for hundreds of millions of dollars, and there would be all this upside for the people involved in creating it. And what happened with streaming and the economics of streaming is those. Those forms of upside just vanished. Because what happens is the streamers just buy the projects with like a cost plus model. A lot of the time. And so you make the movie and you turn around, you sell it for like a 10% profit margin to a streamer. And then there's no aftermarket because it's just a tile on the streaming service, right? And there's no, you know, there's no DVD sales, there's no, you know, there's no TV syndication rights. Those concepts are irrelevant. You know, the streamer just has sort of a perpetual writer, a 20 year ride or whatever to be able to show it at that sort of fixed fee. And so the upside got cut off and that, that removed I think, a lot of the economic incentive for kind of the wildcatting thing that Hollywood used to do more, which is to really take, you know, take these chances on things. You know, like Hollywood used to work a lot like the venture capital model, which is, you know, you, you, you, you put 10, you know, you put 10 lines in the water, you get, you know, you get four bytes and you get maybe one grand slam. And you know, if it works like that's this particular model. But the grand slam has to be able to scale economically in order for that to happen. And that's been cut off. So that did not help. And then there's the big thing, Capital B, capital G, capital T. The big thing that happened, of course, which is Hollywood being on the vanguard of culture, got hit by the thing, the cultural change of the last decade, like incredibly hard. And you know, we've talked a lot about how tech, you know, got hit by that incredibly hard and Hollywood got hit by it in a very intense way. You know, nobody's ever quite figured out the right way to talk about this. Sometimes you say things like wokeness or whatever. In the 60s they would have called it the new Left. There's actually a term, there's actually my favorite term for it in Hollywood is there's a YouTube channel called Critical Drinker where he's a movie reviewer. It's quite funny. And the Critical Drinker has been documenting basically the thing that hit Hollywood. And he, and I would say in quite scathing terms this whole time. And what he calls it is, he calls it the message. And it's. Right, it's the message with a capital M. And it's actually really funny because for a long time people who watch the Critical Drinker, he would never actually define what the message was. You know, he would basically just say, you know, this, this, this movie has been affected by the message. Right? And of course, and you, you guys are both laughing because of course you already know what the message was. Everybody knows what the message was, right? All white people are racist. All men are, you know, sexist. You know, everybody's a transphobe. And you just go in America's, you know, a force for evil in the world, right? And you just go, like, right down the list of, like, everything that you thing that you would expect, you know, from the last decade. You know, America's, you know, an incipient fascist regime. Like just the entire package, you know, basically, you know, like whatever's on the front page of the New York Times that day, right? Just the message. And so, you know, movies transform themselves. You know, very large percentage of movies that could have been great, you know. You know, you know, in some alternate world could have been these. These. These. These great works of art just. Just basically became. Became in some form political propaganda. Or. Or you could, if you wanted to be more generous, you could say that, you know, those will be the lasting art last decade, right? Which is. Historians will look back and they'll be like, holy. You know, holy Lord. Like, these people were really, like, wrapped around the axle on, like, a bunch of political issues, like my. You know, my goodness. And so they got hit hard by that. And then the other. And then that. That led to in Hollywood, you know, what can only be described as a reign of terror. And this is something that. Occasionally Hollywood figures will talk about this in public, although very rarely, because they. They, you know, it's. It's a very sensitive topic still. But, you know, if. If, you know, people in Hollywood, you know, basically is through that. Through the. Especially the last, you know, eight years, you know, they. They just. They felt like if they made one misstep on, you know, casting or on this. Details in the script or use of words or the themes of a movie or anything, you know, they just felt like they were in danger of just like a lightning strike from. You know, from. From, you know, from. From the sky. Just like striking them dead on the spot. Like, you know, and they. They. They had, like, friends. You know, everybody in Hollywood had, like, friends whose careers just got, like, completely detonated, you know, at one point, you know, in one unpredictable way or another. And again, people have different opinions on this. And you could argue it was long needed or whatever, but it became a thing. And it basically changed the process of how projects were selected. It changed the process of who made projects. It changed the process of staffing. It changed the process of screenwriting. It changed acting. It changed aesthetics. It changed almost every aspect of how these projects get executed. And I just Go through that. Because I think that's changing again right now. If you talk to the same people in Hollywood, what they'll tell you basically is, you know, it's basically this year that the fever has broken, and there's a bunch of indications for that. And we're entering kind of the sort of post. Sort of post message, you know, kind of era. And, you know, we don't know what era we're heading into. Maybe there's a new message or something, but, like, there's a phase shift that's underway. But that phase shift is going to take time because it takes time to make movies, right? The movies that are greenlit today, right, are not going to come out, you know, until like, whatever, 2027, 2028, soonest. And so we. We. So we're in this, like, liminal period or this interstitial period where for the next, like, three years, we're going to get like, a thousand movies that have, like, the message. And they're all going to act like the message is, like, brand new and fresh and nobody's ever heard it before because they, you know, they all pretend that this is like some big revelation that, like, all white people are racist, right? Like in every movie. And there's going to be like a thousand more of those the next three years, and they're just going to land like an absolute thud, right? Like, because it's just like, if you wanted that message, you got it, right? If you already saw a thousand movies to set you, like, the next thousand movies don't contribute to that, right? And just. Just to knock on one. And he's a brilliant filmmaker, but I just saw the new Paul Thomas Anderson movie, One Battle after Another. And it, like, it's literally like a time capsule. It's like a 2022 time capsule. It's literally like time froze in 2022. And in 2022, this movie would have been like, oh, my God. This movie is, like, got the message, right? It's just like everything about it. We could spend hours just on this movie and it lands today. And you're just watching. You're just like, wow, that was a weird time. Like, oh, my goodness.