Alex Rampel (3:11)
Yeah, I mean it's really remarkable like what these things have done. I mean, one of the ways of joking about this is that we had this idea of artificial general intelligence or the Turing Test, like when can we tell the difference between a computer and a human if we don't know who our interlocutor is? And the answer is if you were to take a person 10 years ago and show them, or 20 years ago, or 30, like, oh my God, this is like a fully sentient, this is smarter than, than any kind of human out there. We kind of keep changing the goalpost a little bit on what exactly is AGI. But yes, the pace of innovation here is just remarkable. And the important thing is just the opportunity set that it unlocks. So whenever you have a bull market and very, very exciting tech, there's always somebody saying it's a bubble or it doesn't work or it's all overhyped. And I think there was some MIT paper that came out. This is not a faulty mit, this is somebody who published the paper. It's like, oh, you know, most enterprise deployments really, really aren't working. In terms of AI, we're seeing the exact opposite. Two things. So there's a company called Ramp, and they are kind of credit card expense management products. And you see this giant tick up in January of 2025, which is, you know, when did enterprises. And these are much more like who uses Ramp? This is not necessarily a startup, but it's a more forward thinking company. It's not necessarily ge, it's a company with thousands of employees, maybe in the Bay Area or New York, that wants to be more tech forward. And they've just realized like, wow, this stuff. Jen, to your point, like G 3.5, pretty good. 4. I was like, wow, it's pretty amazing. I can write a new episode of Seinfeld with it. Like amazing things that I could do almost to kind of wow my friends. Like a magic trick. But now the magic trick has actually gone into the enterprise and is saving people time and money. And one of the themes that you'll potentially get out of this presentation for me is that I have this prevailing view of human behavior, which is everybody wants two things. They want to be richer and lazier, so they want to do less work and get more economic value. And this is really what Gen AI unlocks. And it's really starting to happen right now. And this has been a little bit of a flat curve, but it has been inflecting a lot. And you see this in the expense Yeti, you see it in the growth of all of the companies, both at the infrastructure layer and at the app layer. And again, whether they're overvalued or undervalued is almost not the point. It's hard to time the market on these things. The amount of value that they are generating is just tremendous. And we're going to get into this in a second. If anybody knows Maslow's hierarchy of needs, this is like this philosophical tome of what is it that humans need? At the base of the pyramid, people would joke, is WI fi. So it's like, okay, I need all these things that have been true for hundreds of years. And at the very, very top of that pyramid is the self actualization concept. But what I really, really need, if you talk to any teenager, it's like, you know, where's my WI fi? Where's my WI fi? And what's starting to happen now next is it's actually AI. So obviously you can't have AI without the Wi Fi. But something like 15% of adults on planet Earth now use ChatGPT every single week. Why are they using it? It's just part of their daily routine. Whether it's settling a bet with their friends over like, you know, how does this work or that work or I want directions to this thing or I'm really puzzled. My wife just used it to complain to the school because our kid miss bus and the bus driver said he can't open the door because it's against the law to open the door. This is the true story. So my wife had ChatGPT scan all the laws in California and the US federal system writ large. Even though our government is closed down. No, that was completely made up. Send a very, very polite note. I'm sure that the school is going to start adopting ChatGPT2 to start responding to people like my wife apologizing on behalf of the bus driver. But they did send an apology. Sorry, we made that up. Next time we can open the door for your child if he is on time when the bus has already closed the door. It's like a countably infinite number of use cases for these things and the growth of minutes per user in the US I mean this is just astronomical. And as these things work better and as they unlock more use cases, it's kind of obvious that the growth in minutes will go up. This is happening at a breakneck speed. So the key paper which was co written by this very, very smart guy, NOAM SHAZIR In 2017, attention is all you need. It introduced the transformer model. I remember we have a partner here, Frank Chen, who's been here for a very, very long time and he demoed ChatGPT or G& it didn't really work that well. It reminded me of this thing called Eliza, which was like a famous Markov chain based thing. It was basically a therapist that came out. It was an AI based therapist in the 1960s or 1970s. It's still around. You could try it. And basically you say like, doctor, I'm not feeling well. And then it just kind of says, and why is it, Jen, that you aren't feeling well? It just basically takes the words that you say, turns it into a question. It feels kind of sentient until you ask it like, hey, I want to complain to the school about the bus driving. And then it says, and why do you want to complain to the school about the bus driving? It doesn't actually give you an answer or anything that you need, you know, OpenAI. It's hard to imagine that this just happened a couple years ago, but from 2023 until now, like we really have entered the golden age of apps. And I base that purely numerically. I'm used to companies that will grow from, I don't know, like we used to talk about, like double, double, triple or triple, triple, double or all these different ways of measuring revenue growth. Because normally if you're selling a software product and let's just say that you're selling a software product to an enterprise and it's a hundred thousand dollars a year. You might sell a couple one year, a couple the next year, a couple the next year. But very, very rarely have we ever seen a software company go from zero to a hundred million dollars in revenue in a year or two. And we are seeing this right now. This is not like, oh, we're seeing it because people have too much money and they're buying these things. These are companies that are buying these things because it unlocks so much value for them. They want to be lazier, they want to be richer, and this is unlocking that. So I'm going to talk about three broader themes that we're seeing in AI applications really more broadly. These are the types of companies that we're investing in. And partially this is when we ask ourselves, what is defensible? What is it that the labs aren't going to do? Because this is a very, very good question. It's not like OpenAI just wants to be this backend layer for everything. They have a leading consumer app, like they just launched, arguably a competitor to TikTok. Microsoft is getting into the space in a meaningful way. And if you look at the history of software, I mean, this firm was started by Marc Andreessen. He started a company called Netscape. Netscape became roadkill due to this company called Microsoft that went into an antitrust case because of making Netscape roadkill and whatnot. But how do you build an enduring company? And what are the areas that potentially have the most enduring growth? And there are three that I'm going to lay out. So the first is basically traditional software is going AI native. And this is no different than like if you built a time machine right now, go back 15, 20 years and say, I'm just going to invest in every single cloud native company that pops up. You would have an incredible portfolio. You'd have Shopify, you'd have Viva, you'd have netsuite. When netsuite's a little bit older, you'd have Salesforce when it first went public, because it turned out that the incumbents couldn't really respond to that because they, they were selling on premise software or shrink wrap software for a lot of money upfront. And they didn't really know how to go for like less money every single month as a subscription. So category one is trad software that's going AI native. Category two is arguably the biggest, which is basically it's not competing with the software market at all. This is if any of you saw my talk that I gave in May. Software is starting to eat labor. You're basically selling software that does the job of what people would do before. This is arguably a much, much bigger market. The laws of business still apply. You have to build real mot. You can't just build something that's a little widget that somebody underprices your -by a dollar tomorrow. We're going to talk about that in a second. And then lastly, I call this the walled garden. But basically, really, really interesting proprietary data models where the value of this business, because you're able to deliver the finished product thanks to AI becomes much more valuable. And I'll talk about number one. So existing categories are going AI native. So this is a little. We actually have a post coming out about this in a couple days. But I'm sure everybody here has heard of bingo or played bingo. I'm from Florida. There's lots of bingo in Florida, lots of different names on this list. And one of the key lessons that I had as an investor is, you know, and Mercury is kind of a great example of the tortoise that beat and is, you know, still beating the hare. Mercury built a Neobank for startups. So they said we're going to be the better source for you when you start your company to go deposit your money with us. We're going to, you know, help you pay your bills, track your expenses, be a basic accounting system. Mercury never stole an existing customer from Silicon Valley bank in until the weekend that Silicon Valley bank failed. And it is what I would call the canonical Greenfield opportunity versus Brownfield opportunity. So Brownfield is you're selling to an existing market. So let's just take an example here. Email marketing. You use Mailchimp. I want to go sell you a competitor to Mailchimp because it has AI. That's going to be really hard. Or you use NetSuite and I'm going to say like, hey, ditch your NetSuite. I'm going to give you a NetSuite. That's going to be really hard if you're a net new company. And this is what I mean by greenfield, you have no existing product, you're not using anything, you're a brand new company or sometimes you hit an inflection point. So the inflection point, I'll pick on NetSuite here for a second. The inflection point is I have 50 employees now. I have three entities and two currencies. I've been using QuickBooks, my entire life. QuickBooks can't handle, for whatever reason, they cannot handle multi entity, multi currency support very well. KPMG says, hey, you gotta go move to a better ERP system that supports that. And now I have an opportunity to pick the better product in the market. And NetSuite is a product in the market. Or I can try this thing called Rillet, which, which is one of our companies, which is basically like Netsuite, but it closes the books for you. It has 50 AI features built in. That is a Greenfield example. Now these things don't grow like weeds because you have to wait for the new company creation. You're going entirely for Greenfield and not for Brownfield, but every single one of these spots on this bingo board, the incumbents are all adopting AI and they're going to make their businesses much, much better with AI. Like Bill.com is going to be a stronger business, or SAP is going to be a stronger business, or Adobe is going to be a stronger business because of AI. They're just going to be able to charge for new things. Work will start charging. And I mentioned this in my presentation that I gave a couple months ago. Workday will say, hey, do you, do you want us to do reference checks on every new employee that you enter into our system? That's 500 per reference check. Why can't somebody do it for 499? Because you're stuck with workday. And there's a saying that I use a lot, which is the best companies have hostages, not customers. And I'll talk about a couple examples here. So RPA, there's an existing company called UiPath, public company customer support. There's an existing company called Zendesk, it's now a private company. ERP, SAP, NetSuite, or in some cases like Zendesk charges per seat per month. That is almost an extinct business model for support software because, well, wait a minute, I don't want to pay per seat per month when 99% of all queries can be answered by the support software. I want to pay per outcome. So we've been aggressively betting on the Bingo board. Let's evaluate every company that we see in this space. So if it's payroll, if it's support, if it's erp. And the important thing is that these are systems of record. So this is the best companies take hostages, not customers. Like, we don't want to invest in hostage companies. We don't want to invest in companies that have negative 100 NPS. We want to invest in companies that still have A very, very strong moat. And that's what I mean when I use that expression. So all of the companies that we're looking at here, what is a system of record, it just means like it runs the entire business. Everything on that bingo board, like how do you get rid of NetSuite? It's basically impossible. You can enter in with an AI wedge or more often than not, a lot of these bingo categories are. We're just building the new system of record. The existing incumbent is doing that as well. But it still is a no brainer whenever you're brand new in the market or at this inflection point of do I use this old one or do I need this new one? So next here. So the second theme here, which I am personally most excited about is where new categories are emerging, where labor is software. And there is no bingo board for this at all. And the reason why is because there weren't software companies that did this before. And the predominant theme is that you have a lot of things where you would hire a person. You can't hire that person or that person that you were going to hire doesn't speak 21 different foreign languages and won't work 24 hours a day. But software can do 90% of what that human would do. Now you will pay for software, not necessarily at the same like rate that you would pay for labor. But this is not something that you would hire a software product for. This is not something that you would ever have a software product for before. So I'll talk about a couple examples here. And obviously, you know, I mentioned this, I can mention this ad nauseam, but the labor market is astronomically bigger than the software market. So next. So again, this is kind of the governing principle. Here you go, look at a job. Front desk receptionist. Plaza Lane Optometry. Plaza Lane Optometry has like they have a bingo board as well in terms of software that they spend money on. They probably spend money on Microsoft Office. They probably spend money on Squarespace or Wix. That's on the order of $500 a year. If you can deliver them a software product that does, you know, call it five out of the eight things on this job posting. They will hire that software product. What do they pay for that software product? This is the part of the market that is almost unknown because they're probably, they're almost definitely not going to pay the $47,000 a year that they're advertising for this job or whatever the rate is that they're paying for the job. They're probably not going to pay $500 for software. But the promoter, the creator, developer of this software product, an application software company might say, you know, we're going to charge you $20,000 a year. They need to be careful about how they do this. We often want to see them turn into a system of records so that if they are doing, you know, five of these eight job responsibilities, somebody doesn't pop up and say, we're going to charge $19,999 a year. We want to make sure that this is a very, very sticky end solution for plasma lane optometry. You're going to see, I believe, a lot of market cap creation on the bingo board of existing software products that have a new, better alternative that are going after Greenfield. But here you can go after Brownfield, you can go after existing companies. You could probably charge a lot more. There was a path to much, much more explosive revenue growth.