a16z Podcast Episode Summary

Episode: The Critical Technology in Finding Critical Materials

Date: February 11, 2025
Host: Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)
Guests:

• Tom Hunt, VP of Technology at Cobalt
• Umfike Makai, Mining and Civil Engineer, Cobalt
• George Gilchrist, VP of Geosciences, Cobalt

Overview of the Episode's Main Theme

This episode explores the urgent need for critical materials—such as copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt—which are essential for the global shift to clean energy, electrification, and advanced technologies (from electric vehicles to data centers). The conversation centers on how technological advances, particularly in artificial intelligence and data, are transforming mineral exploration and the mining industry, making the search and extraction of these irreplaceable metals more precise, efficient, and environmentally responsible.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Rising Demand for Critical Metals

• Why More Mining Is Needed:
  • The green revolution (EVs, solar, batteries, data centers) requires huge increases in metals like copper and lithium.
    • “EVs require 4x amount of copper as a normal gas vehicle... If we want to power this green revolution, we definitely need more mining.” (Host, 00:50)
  • Over 2 billion electric vehicles will need about 1,000 new mines for necessary battery metals. After EVs are built, battery recycling can eventually help—but first, the raw metal must be mined. (Tom Hunt, 03:46)
  • Demand is surging for both electrification and data infrastructure: “By 2050, we’re going to have 6-7% of the world’s copper going directly to data centers.” (Host, 01:34)

2. What Makes These Metals Irreplaceable

• Physical Properties and Global Role:
  • Copper: Second most conductive metal after silver—no substitute on the scale required.
  • Lithium: Lightest, most electronegative element; unmatched for energy density in batteries.
    • “There is no substitute for copper or lithium... these metals are irreplaceable in the global supply chain for the energy transition.” (Tom Hunt, 03:46)

3. The Real Challenge: Discovering and Accessing Ore

• Supply vs. Discovery:
  • The limiting factor isn’t the planetary abundance, but where geological processes have concentrated metals to viable levels.
    • “There’s plenty of metal in the Earth’s crust... but how do we find places where history has concentrated these metals enough for cost-effective, minimal-impact mining?” (Tom Hunt, 05:00)
  • Surface deposits have mostly been found. The challenge is now in locating and efficiently exploring deeper, hidden deposits. (George Gilchrist, 08:15)

4. How Exploration Is Evolving

• From Traditional to Tech-Driven Techniques:
  • Traditional fieldwork (mapping, soil sampling) is still fundamental but now paired with advanced tech:
    • Airborne and high-resolution geophysical surveys (magnetics, gravity, seismic)
    • Hyperspectral imaging to “read out chemistry using light” (Tom Hunt, 18:21)
  • The integration of many data types—satellite imagery, geochemical records, hand-drawn mapping—creates huge, complex datasets.
  • AI and Data Science:
    • Image recognition, data cleaning, and predictive modeling optimize the hunt for new ore by narrowing exploration targets—from broad regions, to camps (10x10 km), down to precise drill locations.
    • Drilling is expensive (up to $1M per hole); AI helps maximize the information gained per drill and reduce wasted effort.
    • “We can compress what might have taken years of remote field work into a week by iterating and updating models on-the-fly.” (Tom Hunt, 27:30)

5. Bridging Human and Artificial Intelligence

• Collaborative, Interdisciplinary Teams:
  • Geoscientists, data scientists, hardware engineers, and community members work together—often globally distributed—via cloud-based tools and regular cross-disciplinary training.
    • “Our data science, software engineering, and geoscience teams are highly collaborative... anyone around the world... can look with the same precision at the same information as if they were standing in front of it on the ground.” (Umfike Makai, 15:14)
  • Custom internal glossaries, on-site experiences, and cultural exchange (including local terminology for minerals) integrate diverse expertise. (Umfike Makai, 16:17)

6. Hardware & Software Innovation for Mining

• Novel Data Collection:
  • 360-degree core imaging at the drill site, real-time data upload, and specialized scanning hardware reduce analysis time.
• A New Model for Decision Making:
  • Prioritizing uncertainty reduces waste: drilling not just where the resource is likeliest, but where each hole provides the most new information to confirm or refute geological models.
  • “We are happy to hold multiple models... we design drill holes to maximize how many of these models we can effectively test.” (George Gilchrist, 25:46)

7. Parallels and Gaps with Oil and Gas

• Mining technology lags behind oil and gas in predictive drilling, geophysics, and data analysis—though it’s now rapidly catching up by borrowing and adapting techniques from that industry. (Tom Hunt, 30:15)

8. Flexibility & Applicability Across Metals and Regions

• The approaches work for copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel, and more—each commodity and region demands adaptations.
• “The technology really is a toolbox that we can apply to different programs around the world ... it’s just incredibly promising.” (Tom Hunt, 32:26)

9. Defining ‘Critical Minerals’ in a Geopolitical World

• Lists cover many elements, but the most strategic are those crucial to electrification and the economy—especially copper and lithium. (Tom Hunt, 34:44)
• Supply for some elements (like rare earths) is geographically concentrated, triggering national interests and incentives beyond market economics. (George Gilchrist, 36:16 & 37:43)
• “It’s more complicated than just the supply and demand on the open market. There is a country competition.” (George Gilchrist, 37:43)

10. Societal Impact: Africa, Zambia, and the Global South

• Technology-driven exploration and mining investment is helping drive industrialization, youth employment, and economic interconnection in Africa.
  • “An investment like Cobalt into Zambia is stimulating opportunities, driving development of the youngest population on the continent ... operating transparently ... and changing the image of mining.” (Umfike Makai, 38:51)
• “Now is an amazing time to be in exploration... we are absolutely critical to solving global problems,” (George Gilchrist, 41:07)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Crypto-Buzz vs. Reality:
  “There is a phrase in mining: if you can’t grow it, you must mine it. That’s so central to understand ... our cars, everything on our tabletops, these things require materials that must be mined from the earth’s surface.” (Host, 00:01)

• Quantifying the Urgency:
  “We will need to build about 2 billion electric vehicles ... that means we have to discover about 1,000 new mines.” (Tom Hunt, 03:46)

• AI Acceleration:
  “We can compress what might have taken years of expensive remote field work into a week... by being able to iterate and update these machine learning models.” (Tom Hunt, 27:30)

• On Changing Industry Perception:
  “The image of mining has been poor in past decades. We want to change the image of mining, and that change will come through more prediction, more precision.” (Umfike Makai, 38:51)

• The Future of Human-Machine Collaboration:
  “It’s said the best geologist is the one that’s seen the most rocks. Well, what if we make a system that can look at more rocks than any human has ever looked at before?” (Tom Hunt, 32:26)

Important Segment Timestamps

• 00:01 – Why we must mine: everything around us is material-dependent
• 01:32 – How demand from EVs and data centers drives a looming copper/lithium gap
• 03:46 – The scale of mining needed for energy transition
• 05:00 – The real bottleneck: finding concentrated mineral deposits
• 08:15 – Why most new mining comes from expansion, not discovery
• 10:05 – Evolution of mining exploration technology
• 11:12 – How AI and new data techniques change exploration
• 15:14 – Enabling global teamwork via data and technology
• 18:21 – Hyperspectral imaging revolutionizes geological mapping
• 22:11 – Deciding what data to use and how to prioritize field work
• 23:49 – Using AI and uncertainty quantification to optimize drilling
• 27:30 – Real-world example of AI-guided lithium discovery in Canada
• 30:15 – Comparing mining tech to oil & gas
• 34:44 – Which minerals are ‘critical’ and why
• 38:51 – The impact of tech-driven mining investment in Africa

Tone and Style

The speakers maintain an informative but accessible tone: technical enough for industry listeners but inclusive and illustrative for everyone. There’s a strong sense of urgency, innovation, and optimism, coupled with frankness about industry challenges and limitations.

Summary for Non-Listeners

This episode offers an in-depth but approachable discussion about why finding and accessing critical minerals is at the heart of the energy transition—and how the mining industry is being transformed by data, AI, remote sensing, and interdisciplinary collaboration. Listeners learn why materials like copper and lithium are non-negotiable for electrification, how technology lets companies like Cobalt leapfrog legacy exploration techniques, and how these advances drive not only economic growth, but new partnerships and perspectives in resource-rich nations and communities worldwide.

For more on the a16z Podcast and technology future trends, visit a16z.com.