a16z Podcast Summary

Episode: "The Death of Search: How Shopping Will Work In The Age of AI"

Date: September 17, 2025
Guests: Alex Rampel (General Partner, a16z), Justine Moore (Partner, a16z)
Host: Andreessen Horowitz

Episode Overview

This episode explores the transformative impact of AI on shopping, online commerce, and Internet search. The discussion centers on how AI agents will disrupt traditional e-commerce, fundamentally alter consumer choices, challenge existing business models (including affiliate marketing and Google’s dominance), and create opportunities for new startups. The conversation dives into impulse vs. considered purchases, attribution headaches, platform shifts, the ‘crapification’ of web content, and where both incumbents and challengers might win or lose as AI becomes the interface for all things commerce.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Problem with Today’s Internet and Commerce

• SEO Junk and Commercialization:

  • Alex describes the contemporary Internet as “unhealthy,” flooded with SEO-optimized but low-quality (“crap”) content driven by affiliate revenue, making honest analysis difficult ([00:00], [22:41]).
  • Quote: “Most of the things on the Internet are crap and they're crap. And we know that they're crap, but they SEO optimized crap. So how do you decrapify that?” — Alex Rampel ([00:00]).

• Affiliate Marketing & Attribution:

  • Rampel recounts the early days of affiliate marketing, pointing to its evolution and current irrelevance for many high-consideration purchases ([01:10]).
  • The challenge of “last click attribution” distorts who receives credit (and money) for actual sales ([10:09]).
  • Example: Apps like Honey manipulate last-click attribution, inflating their importance and payouts at merchants’ expense ([10:09]).

2. How AI Changes Shopping Behavior

• AI Agents as Shopping Directors:

  • With the rise of LLMs, Rampel and Moore explore how AI will direct purchase decisions and even act on consumers’ behalf ([00:12], [03:15]).
  • Notable behavior: Teens uploading photos to ChatGPT, asking for product recommendations, and receiving alternatives based on price ([05:11]).
  • Moore emphasizes the opportunity for new products, as AI agents begin to fulfill consumer needs more directly ([03:15]).

• Impulse vs. Considered Purchases:

  • Impulse: AI unlikely to influence in-the-moment, low-value purchases (e.g., snacks at a checkout) ([01:10], [33:14]).
  • Considered: For big-ticket items, research is extensive yet still requires trust, tactile experience, or in-person validation ([33:14]).

• Personalization, Dynamic Pricing, and Consumer Surplus:

  • Theoretically, advanced pricing (e.g., charging iPhone users more) maximizes revenue but is difficult or unpopular in practice ([06:20]).

3. Platform Shifts & Market Structure

• Aggregator Success & Brand Challenges:

  • Amazon and Shopify prospered as aggregators, while single-product brands (e.g., Casper, Allbirds) gained revenue but lacked defensible models and durability ([12:44]).
  • Quote: “Casper didn’t make the mattress … Well, then they're just buying, they're buying traffic on Google and Facebook. So actually Google and Facebook were real victors there, more so than anybody else.” — Alex Rampel ([12:44])
  • Trend-driven products (e.g., shoes) are especially hard to defend, with taste and popularity shifting quickly ([15:24]).

• The Role and Decline of Search (Google):

  • Google’s original brilliance lay in ranking, and its dominance in “default” commercial intent search is now threatened as AI takes over non-commercial, free queries ([17:49]).
  • Paid search (“the imium of freemium”) persists because of commerce-driven queries ([17:49]).
  • LLMs like ChatGPT are eroding pure information queries but haven’t yet penetrated commercial search at scale ([21:02]).

4. The Decline of Trust, the Rise of Walled Gardens and 'Crapification'

• Traditional Quality (Consumer Reports) vs. Affiliate Spam:

  • Affiliate-driven content overwhelms honest reviews; trustworthy sources like Consumer Reports have no modern analog ([22:41], [27:24]).
  • Video content (e.g., YouTube) often offers more trustworthy reviews, but this data isn’t yet leveraged by search or AI ([26:04]).

• Resale Platforms and Amazon Pollution:

  • OEMs sell undifferentiated goods rebranded innumerably — “a sea of crap.” Amazon reviews are frequently gamed ([27:36]).

• Costco as the Antidote to 'Crap Commerce':

  • Costco succeeds by refusing high margins and curating high-quality goods, maintaining customer trust and membership value ([29:37]).
  • Quote: “Costco is immune to all of this because it's like they're like the Consumer Reports ... and they treat customers incredibly well.” — Alex Rampel ([30:49]).

5. How AI Will Reshape E-commerce (and What Won’t Change)

• Types of Purchases and Where AI Fits:

  • Impulse purchases and high-consideration purchases are hardest to disrupt via AI ([33:14]).
  • “Middle-range” purchases—things you know you want, or that require moderate research—are prime for AI-driven agents ([33:14]).

• Automation, Price Optimization, & New Experiences:

  • AI can optimize for best price, cashback, coupons, and even choose the best credit card — especially for purchases with clear product identifiers (UPCs) ([37:26]).

• New “Last Click” Winners, Merchant Infrastructure:

  • Specialized AI agents (think: next-gen Rakuten, CamelCamelCamel) may become power players by providing automated savings and purchase optimization just one frictionless step away ([40:01]).
  • Changes will be required on the merchant side to accommodate AI agents making purchases on behalf of people ([43:09]).

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Web Quality:

  “Most of the things on the Internet are crap and they're crap. And we know that they're crap, but they SEO optimized crap. So how do you decrapify that?”
  — Alex Rampel ([00:00])

• On Google’s Revenue Model:

  “Google, I mean, I respect the hell out of that company, but they kind of are a tax on GDP ... they get a percentage of all that spend because they're charging per click.”
  — Alex Rampel ([00:17], [16:50])

• On the Power of Trust:

  “Costco is immune to all of this because ... they treat customers incredibly well. And that's why this company's worth hundreds of billions of dollars ...”
  — Alex Rampel ([30:49])

• On AI’s Impact on Aggregators vs Brands:

  “AI agents can direct people to things if people start their purchase activities there, which could be an opportunity or a challenge for like the single SKU retailers.”
  — Justine Moore ([15:24])

• On New E-commerce Opportunities:

  “If you make something so painfully easy to use that it's more of an IQ test. It's like, do you want to pay less for something or more for something?... if it's so easy, I think that's one area where you could, I mean this is where startups have lived.”
  — Alex Rampel ([40:01])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:00–01:10]: Why the Internet is “crap”—SEO-driven junk and affiliate pollution.
• [03:15–04:02]: The (lack of) new AI startups in mainstream e-commerce.
• [05:11]: Viral AI shopping hacks (teens using image queries with ChatGPT).
• [06:20]: Dynamic pricing and the challenges of consumer surplus capture.
• [10:09]: Attribution headaches and the “last-click” business model.
• [12:44–15:24]: Aggregators vs. direct-to-consumer brands — why Shopify and Amazon win.
• [16:34]: Trend-driven purchasing and why AI struggles to shape demand.
• [17:49]: Google’s history, business model, and AI’s threat.
• [22:41]: Problems with affiliate-driven content, the decline of trust, and Consumer Reports nostalgia.
• [26:04]: YouTube as an honest review destination and the unskimmable nature of video.
• [29:37]: Costco’s unique, AI-proof model and why it builds trust.
• [33:14]: Mapping types of purchases (impulse, habitual, considered) and how AI may eat the “middle.”
• [37:26]: The automation of price optimization and the implications of product identifiers (UPC/SKU).
• [40:01]: The rise of specialized shopping AI agents and opportunity for new durable startups.
• [43:09]: Merchant-side changes required to support AI agents.

Flow & Tone

The tone is candid, slightly irreverent, and deeply informed. Alex Rampel’s analogies (“Google as a tax on GDP,” “retail crap-ification,” etc.) punctuate the discussion with memorable, pithy observations. Both guests draw from experience, real market data, and personal anecdotes to illustrate change and opportunity in the e-commerce ecosystem.

Conclusion: What’s Next?

• AI agents will take over search and “shopping journey” functions, pushing Google and Amazon’s roles into question.
• Commerce will polarize between impulse/bespoke purchases (AI-resistant) and routine/commodity goods (AI-optimized).
• New startups will emerge to make saving money and time seamless, while merchants and platforms will be forced to remodel their infrastructure for AI-intermediated transactions.
• Trust will remain a differentiator (e.g., Costco), while the Internet’s “crapification” problem will persist—unless new models emerge to “decrapify” and restore quality.

For anyone interested in the future of online shopping and the coming AI-driven overhaul of e-commerce and search, this episode offers insight, skepticism, and optimism in equal measure.