The a16z Show

Episode: Where Does Consumer AI Stand at the End of 2025?

Date: December 29, 2025
Host: Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) Consumer Team: Olivia Moore, Justine Moore, Brian Kim, Anisha Charya

Overview

As 2025 ends, the a16z consumer team convenes to review the explosive evolution of consumer-facing AI: which models and products won user engagement, pivotal launches, why interface and nuance trump model quality, and whether “winner-take-most” dynamics are playing out among the big AI labs. The panel also peers into 2026, offering predictions and recommendations, reflecting on opportunities for startups, the rise of multimodality, app generation, and shifting power users. Dynamic, data-driven, and packed with “in the trenches” product wisdom, this episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the consumer AI landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Consumer AI Market (01:22)

Rapid Market Consolidation: ChatGPT is far in the lead with 800–900M weekly actives, dominating the mainstream. Others like Gemini, Claude, Grok, and Perplexity are trailing.
Recent Disruption: Viral launches like Google’s Nano Banana and rapid year-over-year Gemini growth (155% on desktop) indicate the landscape is still fast-evolving.
Winner-Take-Most Trend: Only 9% of consumers pay for more than one major LLM group (ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Cursor). For most of 2025, less than 10% of ChatGPT users even visited competing providers (01:22 – Olivia Moore).

2. Product Launches and Interface Evolution (03:23)

Model Releases Driving Product Trends:
- OpenAI: Viral models in image (ChatGPT4.0 image, “the Ghibli moment”) and video (Sora as a standalone app) (03:41 – Justine Moore).
- Google: Standalone launches like VEO, VO3, and the massively viral Nano Banana/Pro in image models. More flexible interfaces (04:46 – Justine Moore).
Interface Choices Matter: OpenAI keeps features within ChatGPT; Google experiments with standalone sites and custom interfaces.

3. Advances in Multimodal Models (04:58)

From Aesthetics to Realism & Reasoning: 2025 saw leaps in both making content “feel real” (correct background physics, multi-input synthesis, etc.) and improving reasoning in images and video.
Benchmarks Yet to Break: Multi-step and complex reasoning in image generation remain as limits. (06:15 – Justine Moore):

“They sometimes struggle with both reasoning and multi-step reasoning... So there's still some room to go on the image eval.”
Product Usefulness: Integration with search becomes crucial for real-world accuracy (07:14 – Anisha Charya).

4. Underhyped Innovations & Misses (08:23)

Pulse & Proactive Apps: Pulse (OpenAI) and connectors are “new primitives” that feel underhyped due to execution, not vision (09:39 – Olivia Moore).
Prosumer Workspace: As models get smarter, connectors could allow AIs to “own” prosumer workflows, but reliability is still in progress.

5. Standout & “Stack” Apps for Power Users (10:50)

Perplexity’s Comet Browser: A top recommendation for browser-based, agent-driven workflows + repeatable automation. Comet’s launch outperformed ChatGPT’s similar browser tool (10:50 – Olivia Moore).
Recommendation: Shift from all-in-one assistants to specialized products for specific power-user needs (11:58 – Anisha Charya).

6. Gemini’s Ascent & Brand Challenges (12:09)

Gemini’s Viral Appeal: Huge distribution advantages on Android/mobile (~50% of ChatGPT’s scale), but still seen as “not the default.”
Sticky Consumer Habits: “ChatGPT is like the Kleenex of AI” (13:54 – Olivia Moore), making it hard for competitors to overtake even with technical parity.

7. Product Sensibility & Interface Lessons (14:18)

First-Use Experience Matters: Gemini’s onboarding tools (“trending themes,” creative cards, etc.) help prompt new users.
Application Layer Leadership: Startups like Krea and Hydra influence new interface standards, which are sometimes later adopted by ChatGPT (15:56 – Justine Moore).

8. Social Features & The Status Game in AI (16:52)

Skepticism about Social in LLMs: OpenAI’s group chats and Sora's “TikTok for AI video” features haven’t cracked broad social engagement.
- Productivity tools = “help me” category.
- Social apps = “entertain/see me” category (17:17 – Brian Kim).
Status Dynamics: AI-generated content undermines the “status game” that makes social platforms sticky (20:24 – Olivia Moore).
Creator > Consumer App Tension: Sora succeeded more as a creator tool; users post AI content elsewhere, not inside the generating app (19:04 – Justine Moore).

9. Challenger Labs & Specialized Verticals (21:40)

Claude’s Niche Appeal: Beloved for opinionated workflows, artifacts, and skills features, but too technical for most (“needs to dumb it down” – 23:12 Olivia Moore).
Meta: Focused on infrastructure—Segment Anything (SAM3) series for devs; main consumer-facing win is auto voice translation on Instagram videos (25:00 – Justine Moore).
Grok (XAI): Blazing velocity in AI video/image; packing in features (text > video, lip sync, gaming aspirations). Outpacing others in progress (25:23 – Justine Moore).

10. Predictions for 2026 & Opportunities (27:14)

Enterprisation of ChatGPT: Massive push into enterprise use (8–9x growth), driving new “consumerization” via workplace adoption (27:29 – Olivia Moore).
App Generation & Templates: Expect to see app generation and template-based creative flourish (e.g., Ghibli style, TikTok trends). Templates and style drive continued engagement even as model capability plateaus (29:56 – Brian Kim).
Multimodality (“Anything In → Anything Out”): Next phase will blend text, image, video, and agentic interaction so users can remix across media seamlessly (31:44 – Justine Moore).
Room For Startups: Big labs excel at models and core features but are weaker at verticalized, opinionated consumer products—open lane for startups (32:16 – Olivia Moore).

11. Monetization Trends in Consumer AI (36:05)

Power User Focus: “All of AI is a power user story and everyone else is just traffic.” (35:41 – Anisha Charya)
Usage-Based Revenue: Consumer AI products now see >100% revenue retention by charging for usage tiers or tokens (36:17 – Olivia Moore).

“If you told me pre-AI we’d see a consumer company with a hundred plus retention and money, I’m like, that doesn’t make any sense.” (36:26 – Brian Kim)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Market Share (01:22 Olivia Moore):

“Only 9% of consumers are paying for more than one out of the group of ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude and Cursor... ChatGPT is in the lead at 800 to 900 million weekly users... Gemini now grows desktop users 155% year over year... and ChatGPT is only growing 23%.”
On Multimodal Progress (06:15 Justine Moore):

“There’s one benchmark left that the reasoning image models have not cracked... multi-step reasoning.”
On Sticky Product Brands (13:54 Olivia Moore):

“ChatGPT is like the Kleenex of AI. It is the brand.”
On Social Product Limits (17:17 Brian Kim):

“Ultimately, when you peel the onion five times, I think essentially [ChatGPT] is help me be better... And then when I think about social features... it’s I want to be seen, I want to connect with people. These are pretty two different parallels in the product direction.”
On Challenger Success/Failure (23:12 Olivia Moore):

“Claude is beloved amongst tech people, but outside of tech people I think they are maybe struggling to pick up relevance.”
On App Generation (29:56 Brian Kim):

“That goes to show templates matter, style matters... it’s not just about the capability of models but the stylistic things.”
On Startup Opportunity (32:16 Olivia Moore):

“Out of all of those, I think the product that’s working the most is like Notebook ll. And that’s one of maybe 20 things Google has tried... I think it’s actually very positive for startups... there’s still room for startups to be building there.”

2026 Outlook: Where Is Consumer AI Heading? (27:14 – End)

Enterprise–Consumer Cross-Pollination: Enterprise adoption of ChatGPT may boost consumer stickiness.
Multimodality As Core: “Anything in, anything out” design will unlock new user creativity and utility.
Startups Will Shine On Opinionated, Vertical Apps: Big labs focus on core models and safe incremental features.
Monetization Will Center On Usage & Power Users: High retention, monetization via upgraded usage, rather than subscriptions only.
Compute as a Bottleneck: Labs weigh offering viral creative tools vs. conserving compute for core model advancement.

Final Reflections & Closing Moments

Justine Moore (42:47):

“The models have gotten to the level of quality, that you can build a real scalable app on top of them... the hope is 2026 will be a huge year for consumer builders.”

Section Timestamps

[00:00 – 03:09] — Introduction, usage data, and market topline
[03:09 – 08:13] — 2025 launches, model interface nuances, multimodal progress
[08:13 – 12:09] — Underhyped products, power users and stack recommendations
[12:09 – 16:31] — Gemini vs. ChatGPT, interface/product design lessons
[16:31 – 24:57] — Social features, Sora/TikTok moments, status game, challenger labs (Claude, Meta, Grok)
[24:57 – 36:26] — Paths forward, product innovation, app generation, monetization trends
[36:26 – 43:17] — Product recommendations, power user tools, closing predictions

For more highlights and recommendations, the a16z team publishes a daily AI product on Twitter/X!

The a16z Show

Episode: Where Does Consumer AI Stand at the End of 2025?

Date: December 29, 2025
Host: Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) Consumer Team: Olivia Moore, Justine Moore, Brian Kim, Anisha Charya

Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Consumer AI Market (01:22)

Rapid Market Consolidation: ChatGPT is far in the lead with 800–900M weekly actives, dominating the mainstream. Others like Gemini, Claude, Grok, and Perplexity are trailing.
Recent Disruption: Viral launches like Google’s Nano Banana and rapid year-over-year Gemini growth (155% on desktop) indicate the landscape is still fast-evolving.
Winner-Take-Most Trend: Only 9% of consumers pay for more than one major LLM group (ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Cursor). For most of 2025, less than 10% of ChatGPT users even visited competing providers (01:22 – Olivia Moore).

2. Product Launches and Interface Evolution (03:23)

Model Releases Driving Product Trends:
- OpenAI: Viral models in image (ChatGPT4.0 image, “the Ghibli moment”) and video (Sora as a standalone app) (03:41 – Justine Moore).
- Google: Standalone launches like VEO, VO3, and the massively viral Nano Banana/Pro in image models. More flexible interfaces (04:46 – Justine Moore).
Interface Choices Matter: OpenAI keeps features within ChatGPT; Google experiments with standalone sites and custom interfaces.

3. Advances in Multimodal Models (04:58)

From Aesthetics to Realism & Reasoning: 2025 saw leaps in both making content “feel real” (correct background physics, multi-input synthesis, etc.) and improving reasoning in images and video.
Benchmarks Yet to Break: Multi-step and complex reasoning in image generation remain as limits. (06:15 – Justine Moore):

“They sometimes struggle with both reasoning and multi-step reasoning... So there's still some room to go on the image eval.”
Product Usefulness: Integration with search becomes crucial for real-world accuracy (07:14 – Anisha Charya).

4. Underhyped Innovations & Misses (08:23)

Pulse & Proactive Apps: Pulse (OpenAI) and connectors are “new primitives” that feel underhyped due to execution, not vision (09:39 – Olivia Moore).
Prosumer Workspace: As models get smarter, connectors could allow AIs to “own” prosumer workflows, but reliability is still in progress.

5. Standout & “Stack” Apps for Power Users (10:50)

Perplexity’s Comet Browser: A top recommendation for browser-based, agent-driven workflows + repeatable automation. Comet’s launch outperformed ChatGPT’s similar browser tool (10:50 – Olivia Moore).
Recommendation: Shift from all-in-one assistants to specialized products for specific power-user needs (11:58 – Anisha Charya).

6. Gemini’s Ascent & Brand Challenges (12:09)

Gemini’s Viral Appeal: Huge distribution advantages on Android/mobile (~50% of ChatGPT’s scale), but still seen as “not the default.”
Sticky Consumer Habits: “ChatGPT is like the Kleenex of AI” (13:54 – Olivia Moore), making it hard for competitors to overtake even with technical parity.

7. Product Sensibility & Interface Lessons (14:18)

First-Use Experience Matters: Gemini’s onboarding tools (“trending themes,” creative cards, etc.) help prompt new users.
Application Layer Leadership: Startups like Krea and Hydra influence new interface standards, which are sometimes later adopted by ChatGPT (15:56 – Justine Moore).

8. Social Features & The Status Game in AI (16:52)

Skepticism about Social in LLMs: OpenAI’s group chats and Sora's “TikTok for AI video” features haven’t cracked broad social engagement.
- Productivity tools = “help me” category.
- Social apps = “entertain/see me” category (17:17 – Brian Kim).
Status Dynamics: AI-generated content undermines the “status game” that makes social platforms sticky (20:24 – Olivia Moore).
Creator > Consumer App Tension: Sora succeeded more as a creator tool; users post AI content elsewhere, not inside the generating app (19:04 – Justine Moore).

9. Challenger Labs & Specialized Verticals (21:40)

Claude’s Niche Appeal: Beloved for opinionated workflows, artifacts, and skills features, but too technical for most (“needs to dumb it down” – 23:12 Olivia Moore).
Meta: Focused on infrastructure—Segment Anything (SAM3) series for devs; main consumer-facing win is auto voice translation on Instagram videos (25:00 – Justine Moore).
Grok (XAI): Blazing velocity in AI video/image; packing in features (text > video, lip sync, gaming aspirations). Outpacing others in progress (25:23 – Justine Moore).

10. Predictions for 2026 & Opportunities (27:14)

Enterprisation of ChatGPT: Massive push into enterprise use (8–9x growth), driving new “consumerization” via workplace adoption (27:29 – Olivia Moore).
App Generation & Templates: Expect to see app generation and template-based creative flourish (e.g., Ghibli style, TikTok trends). Templates and style drive continued engagement even as model capability plateaus (29:56 – Brian Kim).
Multimodality (“Anything In → Anything Out”): Next phase will blend text, image, video, and agentic interaction so users can remix across media seamlessly (31:44 – Justine Moore).
Room For Startups: Big labs excel at models and core features but are weaker at verticalized, opinionated consumer products—open lane for startups (32:16 – Olivia Moore).

11. Monetization Trends in Consumer AI (36:05)

Power User Focus: “All of AI is a power user story and everyone else is just traffic.” (35:41 – Anisha Charya)
Usage-Based Revenue: Consumer AI products now see >100% revenue retention by charging for usage tiers or tokens (36:17 – Olivia Moore).

“If you told me pre-AI we’d see a consumer company with a hundred plus retention and money, I’m like, that doesn’t make any sense.” (36:26 – Brian Kim)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Market Share (01:22 Olivia Moore):

“Only 9% of consumers are paying for more than one out of the group of ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude and Cursor... ChatGPT is in the lead at 800 to 900 million weekly users... Gemini now grows desktop users 155% year over year... and ChatGPT is only growing 23%.”
On Multimodal Progress (06:15 Justine Moore):

“There’s one benchmark left that the reasoning image models have not cracked... multi-step reasoning.”
On Sticky Product Brands (13:54 Olivia Moore):

“ChatGPT is like the Kleenex of AI. It is the brand.”
On Social Product Limits (17:17 Brian Kim):

“Ultimately, when you peel the onion five times, I think essentially [ChatGPT] is help me be better... And then when I think about social features... it’s I want to be seen, I want to connect with people. These are pretty two different parallels in the product direction.”
On Challenger Success/Failure (23:12 Olivia Moore):

“Claude is beloved amongst tech people, but outside of tech people I think they are maybe struggling to pick up relevance.”
On App Generation (29:56 Brian Kim):

“That goes to show templates matter, style matters... it’s not just about the capability of models but the stylistic things.”
On Startup Opportunity (32:16 Olivia Moore):

“Out of all of those, I think the product that’s working the most is like Notebook ll. And that’s one of maybe 20 things Google has tried... I think it’s actually very positive for startups... there’s still room for startups to be building there.”

2026 Outlook: Where Is Consumer AI Heading? (27:14 – End)

Enterprise–Consumer Cross-Pollination: Enterprise adoption of ChatGPT may boost consumer stickiness.
Multimodality As Core: “Anything in, anything out” design will unlock new user creativity and utility.
Startups Will Shine On Opinionated, Vertical Apps: Big labs focus on core models and safe incremental features.
Monetization Will Center On Usage & Power Users: High retention, monetization via upgraded usage, rather than subscriptions only.
Compute as a Bottleneck: Labs weigh offering viral creative tools vs. conserving compute for core model advancement.

Final Reflections & Closing Moments

Justine Moore (42:47):

“The models have gotten to the level of quality, that you can build a real scalable app on top of them... the hope is 2026 will be a huge year for consumer builders.”

Section Timestamps

[00:00 – 03:09] — Introduction, usage data, and market topline
[03:09 – 08:13] — 2025 launches, model interface nuances, multimodal progress
[08:13 – 12:09] — Underhyped products, power users and stack recommendations
[12:09 – 16:31] — Gemini vs. ChatGPT, interface/product design lessons
[16:31 – 24:57] — Social features, Sora/TikTok moments, status game, challenger labs (Claude, Meta, Grok)
[24:57 – 36:26] — Paths forward, product innovation, app generation, monetization trends
[36:26 – 43:17] — Product recommendations, power user tools, closing predictions

For more highlights and recommendations, the a16z team publishes a daily AI product on Twitter/X!

Where Does Consumer AI Stand at the End of 2025?

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Summary

The a16z Show

Episode: Where Does Consumer AI Stand at the End of 2025?

Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Consumer AI Market (01:22)

2. Product Launches and Interface Evolution (03:23)

3. Advances in Multimodal Models (04:58)

4. Underhyped Innovations & Misses (08:23)

5. Standout & “Stack” Apps for Power Users (10:50)

6. Gemini’s Ascent & Brand Challenges (12:09)

7. Product Sensibility & Interface Lessons (14:18)

8. Social Features & The Status Game in AI (16:52)

9. Challenger Labs & Specialized Verticals (21:40)

10. Predictions for 2026 & Opportunities (27:14)

11. Monetization Trends in Consumer AI (36:05)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Recommended Products & Power User Picks (36:46–42:01)

2026 Outlook: Where Is Consumer AI Heading? (27:14 – End)

Final Reflections & Closing Moments

Section Timestamps

Summary

The a16z Show

Episode: Where Does Consumer AI Stand at the End of 2025?

Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Consumer AI Market (01:22)

2. Product Launches and Interface Evolution (03:23)

3. Advances in Multimodal Models (04:58)

4. Underhyped Innovations & Misses (08:23)

5. Standout & “Stack” Apps for Power Users (10:50)

6. Gemini’s Ascent & Brand Challenges (12:09)

7. Product Sensibility & Interface Lessons (14:18)

8. Social Features & The Status Game in AI (16:52)

9. Challenger Labs & Specialized Verticals (21:40)

10. Predictions for 2026 & Opportunities (27:14)

11. Monetization Trends in Consumer AI (36:05)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Recommended Products & Power User Picks (36:46–42:01)

2026 Outlook: Where Is Consumer AI Heading? (27:14 – End)

Final Reflections & Closing Moments

Section Timestamps