a16z Podcast — Why Speed, Not Size, Will Define the Next War

Date: November 1, 2025
Host: a16z (Andreessen Horowitz)
Guests:

• Horacio Rozansky (CEO, Booz Allen Hamilton)
• Gary Steele (CEO, SHIELD AI)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the evolving nature of modern warfare and defense strategy, focusing on why technological speed and rapid adaptation—rather than raw size—will determine future military success. Host and guests discuss the lessons from current conflicts, the critical role of autonomy and AI, procurement challenges, and their vision for America’s defense innovation ecosystem.

Key Topics & Insights

1. A New Geopolitical Era and Strategic Readiness

• Context: The world faces its most dangerous geopolitical moment in 50 years, with rising threats from China, Russia, and ongoing instability in the Middle East.
• Rozansky: "We are in this really very challenging, very dangerous geopolitical moment, perhaps the most challenging and dangerous of the last 50 years." [00:00]
• US Readiness: Both guests argue the US—particularly in the Indo-Pacific—has the will, capability, and evolving technological edge to defend Taiwan. Notably, this readiness has evolved significantly in just the past 3–4 years.
  • "Ultimately, it'll be the faster, not the bigger, that will win." (Rozansky) [00:13]
  • "I'm super encouraged by the ability to bring the world's best technology to the fight...I don't know that I would have said that three or four years ago, but I actually feel that way today." (Steele) [02:07]

2. What Military Readiness Now Means

• Three Pillars: Political will, regional capability, and strategic technology deployment.
  • Rozansky highlights Taiwan's increased draft period and investment in key technologies as proactive steps mirroring Ukrainian and Israeli strategies. [03:27]
• Tech Application: The US now deploys advanced capabilities "from space to undersea" and is rapidly integrating AI, autonomy, and new C2 (command and control) systems. [03:27]

3. Comparing US and China: Strength and Speed

• China’s Edge: Proximity and fast adaptation; US must project power across distance.
• American Advantages:
  • Allied partnerships
  • Military talent and capability
  • "Engine of progress" via technology and commercial innovation [05:53]
• Critical Challenge: Maintaining and increasing speed of tech development and deployment.
  • "While we still have a clear technological edge...we need to continue to accelerate." (Rozansky) [05:53]

4. Procurement Reform: The Bottleneck to Speed

• Legacy Problem: Government procurement is risk-averse and slow, built for an era when tech cycles lasted decades.
  • "The entire procurement process is built on minimizing risk. Not minimizing cost, not accelerating technology, not moving fast—it's minimizing risk." (Rozansky) [08:35]
• Needed Shift: Embrace failure upstream, iterate rapidly like startups, and focus on field-ready outcomes over process perfection. [08:35, 09:51]
• Lessons from Ukraine: Fast battlefield innovation through rapid trial-and-error improves survivability and effectiveness.
  • "We have to learn that same agile, iterative process." (Steele) [09:51]
• Current Status: Culture and talent have improved, but regulatory frameworks remain an obstacle. Major procurement reform, potentially starting from scratch, is now being attempted. [33:58]

5. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

• Rising Concern: US defense manufacturing can't yet guarantee fully domestic or trusted-aligned sourcing for critical systems—the supply chain resilience is still a work in progress.
  • "The answer was that could not be done...this is the kind of issue that needs to ultimately get solved." (Rozansky) [10:54]

6. Lessons from Ukraine and Modern Conflict

• Agility and Iteration: US and allies must learn from Ukrainians, who adapt technology on the fly in the field, and incorporate commercial tech with military systems.
  • "They've gotten very good at incorporating commercial technology, real time into what they're doing and iterating it once it's inside the mission as opposed to trying to do all of it before it comes in." (Rozansky) [13:24]
• OSINT (Open Source Intelligence): Speed of openly sourced intelligence can outpace classified channels; speed is the new deciding factor. [14:49]

7. Autonomy, AI, and the Future of Defense

• Drones and Autonomy: The rise of drones and autonomous systems fundamentally changes warfare—reducing risk to personnel and shifting the focus to technological performance.
  • "Autonomy will play a critical role. It's redefining the way conflicts have been fought." (Steele) [00:08, 14:49]
• Multidomain Operations: Modern readiness means real-time, integrated capabilities across land, air, sea, cyber, and space—and growing autonomous control in each.
  • "You have to be able to operate autonomously on all of those domains...especially the further that you get from the human." (Rozansky) [16:52]

8. The Role of Partnerships and Ecosystems

• All-of-Nation Approach: Defense innovation now depends on partnerships across government, traditional defense, Silicon Valley, and new startups.
• Booz Allen + SHIELD Collaboration: Booz Allen leverages its position as a leader in AI and cyber with SHIELD's rapid autonomy development to deliver outcomes at speed.
  • "We don't want to reinvent the wheel. We want to work on top of the best technology out there, to extend it, to help it be more successful..." (Rozansky) [18:35]
  • "The partnership allows us to drive that agility and speed." (Steele) [24:25]

9. Trust, Safety, and AI Regulation

• AI’s “Double-Edge”: Regulatory frameworks must strike a balance—protect safety, but not stifle speed and field learning. Real-world experimentation is essential.
  • "We can't create an entire new framework to regulate them...it'll slow us down...you can't just say, well, whatever, we'll figure it out later." (Rozansky) [25:40]
• Adversarial AI and Cybersecurity: Protecting AIs from interference is mission-critical; both companies are investing deeply in these defenses.
  • "The biggest risk to this whole thing is an event that pushes everything back—a serious safety event, a serious cyber event." (Rozansky) [28:19]

10. Middle East and Global Alliances

• Middle East Opportunity: Rising interest in defense AI and tech partnerships in the Middle East—if regional stability continues to improve, the region could become both a market and innovation partner.
• Technology Export Challenges: Export control lags behind tech development, complicating allied collaboration.
  • "It's very difficult for the US Government to figure out one day you're going to get an export approval or not." (Steele) [32:21]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the defining factor in new conflict:
  "Ultimately, it'll be the faster, not the bigger, that will win."
  – Horacio Rozansky [00:13, 18:35]

• On the vital cultural change needed in defense procurement:
  "The process has to allow for a lot more failure, because without failure, there's no success. Without failure, there's no speed."
  – Horacio Rozansky [08:35]

• On the reality of battlefield innovation:
  "You try four things. Three don't work. One does, you double down on that, you try three more things."
  – Horacio Rozansky [08:35]

• On the impact of autonomy and drones:
  "Autonomy will play a critical role as we think about broader conflicts around the globe."
  – Gary Steele [14:49]

• On supply chain vulnerability:
  "[On a directed energy program:] Ultimately, the answer was that could not be done...this is the kind of issue that needs to ultimately get solved."
  – Horacio Rozansky [10:54]

• On the new model of partnerships:
  "The US has to have a response that cannot be driven solely by the government, solely by the existing defense base, solely by the Valley. It's really going to take everybody."
  – Horacio Rozansky [22:53]

• On the fundamental procurement shift needed:
  "We want to get paid for an outcome. Give me a tool...that accomplishes this in this way, at this cost, in this time frame, and you figure out how to do it."
  – Horacio Rozansky [37:18]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00 – 00:41: Setting the context: current geopolitical danger; speed vs. size.
• 01:05 – 03:27: US and Taiwan readiness; adapting lessons from Ukraine and Israel.
• 05:53 – 07:32: US vs. China strengths and the urgent need for speed.
• 08:35 – 10:24: Deep dive into procurement bottlenecks and the culture shift needed.
• 12:14 – 14:49: Lessons from Ukraine: OSINT and agile field innovation.
• 14:49 – 16:52: The rise of autonomy, AI, and drones.
• 18:35 – 22:44: Company spotlights: Booz Allen and SHIELD’s history, focus, and partnership model.
• 22:53 – 25:27: The "all-of-nation" innovation approach and building the defense ecosystem.
• 25:40 – 29:16: Certifying AI trust, safety, and cybersecurity for lethal systems.
• 30:24 – 33:24: Middle East, new alliances, and challenges with tech export controls.
• 33:58 – 38:18: Procurement reform: what’s changed, what’s left, and a vision for outcome-based contracting.

Conclusion

This episode argues decisively that in the era of rapidly evolving technology and great-power competition, speed—enabled by radical procurement reform, open partnerships, and a willingness to iterate—will matter more than legacy size or raw military mass. Modern defense is now a multidisciplinary, collaborative race against time, demanding agility and innovation at every level.