AdTechGod Pod – Episode 118: "Inside 16 Years of AdTech: Nathan Thomas on Data, CTV, and What’s Next"

Date: January 27, 2026
Host: AdTechGod
Guest: Nathan Thomas (Principal, Thomas Media Consulting; formerly Playwire)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the career and insights of Nathan Thomas, a veteran with 16 years at Playwire, now principal at Thomas Media Consulting. Nathan shares his journey through the evolution of adtech, the shifting challenges facing publishers, the rise of data-driven strategies, and the future of channels like digital out-of-home and CTV. The discussion is candid, technical, and peppered with industry wisdom—as well as a few laughs about adtech’s odd cycles and buzzwords.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Nathan’s Origin Story in AdTech (03:03–06:48)

• From Academia to AdTech: Nathan moved from Switzerland to Florida in 2008 after initially teaching media economics at University of Zurich. Entry into Playwire “was one of the best rides of my life” (03:34) despite starting at a tiny company during the financial crisis.
• Learning by Doing: Joined as Playwire's sixth employee: "There was no tutorials, no blogs, no press, no just kind of like figure it out with very limited resources and you're a really scrappy team" (04:03).
• Startup Evolution: Helped Playwire grow from a gaming ad network to a full publisher monetization platform; ran product innovation, ad ops, and built their data business.
• Consulting Leap: After a marathon tenure, took a sabbatical before “falling into” consulting (06:00), now advising publishers, platforms, SSPs, and more across sell-side challenges.

2. Industry Engagement & Social Platforms (07:52–08:35)

• AdTech Community: Both host and guest are active in adtech Twitter/X and especially LinkedIn, with AdTechGod noting, “My feed is majority ad tech and advertising at this point” (08:16).
• Filtering Content: Both deliberately block politics and noise for a focused social feed on the industry.

3. The Changing Publishing Landscape (09:00–11:02)

• Mounting Complexity: Nathan reflects on how publishing has shifted from “just slap Adsense on” to a labyrinth involving privacy laws, consent management, yield optimization, and more.

  “The industry got so complex... so complex. And at the same time the publishing industry in itself got so exponentially harder with the fragmentation of audiences.” (09:08)

• AI & LLMs as Disruptors: Large language models (LLMs) are pounding generalist and how-to publishers, with only those offering unique value or niche communities likely to withstand the squeeze.
• Demand Side Dominance: Nathan critiques asymmetrical pressures:

  “Often I think an unfair treatment of publishers with a lopsided power on the demand side.... The dollar flows down the dollar line if you will.” (10:13)

4. Rate Compression and Supply-Side Squeeze in CTV (11:02–12:07)

• Commoditization: CTV CPMs have nosedived from $30–$35 a few years ago to as low as $7–$8 for premium supply, even with growing content costs.
• Publishers’ Dilemma:

  “These publishers are like what do you want us to do? You want clean supply paths... you’re pushing my prices down... I’ve had to incorporate subscription models... and I’m increasing rates there because I can’t get the money from advertising revenue.” (11:44)

5. Digital Out of Home (DOOH): Opportunities & Head-Scratchers (12:09–15:45)

• Unobtrusive, Engaging Venues: Nathan appreciates DOOH’s potential for reach without interruptive experiences (e.g., a golf cart tablet), and admires the creative venues for targeting.
• Attribution Challenge:

  “As a supply guy that really kind of blew my mind... you’re trying to estimate how many people see that screen” (13:17).
  DOOH impressions are valued with multipliers, e.g. Times Square billboard = 2500 impressions per play.

• Budget Allocation & Measurement:

  “I think the hardest part is the allocation of budgets from the brands… What does attribution look like?” (15:15)
  DOOH still faces questions regarding creative integration and measurement, inhibiting agency and brand confidence.

6. The Open Web, Traffic Decline, and the Rise of Hedged/Walled Gardens (16:31–19:19)

• Traffic “Drying Up”: Host and guest note referral traffic from Google and social has plummeted, especially with Google AI overviews reducing click-throughs by “30–40%” (17:15).
• Publisher Survival:

  “Long tail… general link… do it yourself things… big problem. We need to make sure content is protected, monetized... but I really think that environments that are more niche, those are going to thrive.” (17:35)

• Gaming as a Model: In-game advertising and tight-knit communities offer resilience—gaming deserves a higher share of ad budgets, per Nathan.

7. Data Landscape and the (Over)Focus on Cookies (20:50–23:47)

• Importance of Data Ownership: Nathan laments how cookie deprecation has “derailed” industry focus, but emphasizes urgent need for publishers to own, analyze, and control their data:

  “I think that is really key because… publishers know their audience the best and they’re the ones… most equipped to do right by them” (22:00).

• Curation and Supply Path Control: Nathan warns against third-party curation unless there’s clear value:

  “Why let other people curate your inventory? You as a publisher should be curating your inventory.” (22:54)

8. The Curation Fad: What Even Is It? (23:47–27:10)

• Ad Network Redux: Both host and guest chuckle over the curation fad, arguing it often boils down to “an ad network by another name” that arbitrages inventory without adding true value:

  “So you’re buying multiple sites, you’re packaging it up and you’re selling it... That is literally an ad network.” (26:11)

• Value Through Enrichment:

  “It has a great opportunity… if it’s properly done and properly managed and honestly controlled by the right people. Again, close to the supply side. If not the publisher themselves.” (26:38)

9. Predictions for 2026: What’s Hot, What’s Not (27:21–29:46)

• AI’s Unstoppable Momentum: Nathan:

  “AI space is probably moving faster than anyone can read the articles.” (27:23)

• Rise of Curation Done Right: Growing importance—but only for supply-side enriched packages controlled by publishers.
• Data-Driven Targeting Will Endure:

  “Data targeting… is never going to go away as a need, a want and an ask” (28:28).
  Closed-loop attribution and data innovation remain central.

• Hopes for Innovation in Ad Formats: Nathan calls for creativity beyond banners, especially in mobile and video.
• Buzzword Caution: Host notes, “There’s always a new buzz every six months… sometimes the buzz turns into reality, sometimes it fizzles.” (28:54)

10. ADCP and OpenRTB: Emerging Trends (29:24–30:21)

• ADCP Interest but Skepticism:

  “ADCP is super interesting… it’s very early on… could be maybe if it leads to an evolution of OpenRTB… that’d be a great thing.” (29:24)

• Host’s View: Sees challenges in financial transactions and commercial logistics; doesn’t think it’ll replace RTB.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the early Playwire ride:
  "Honestly was one of the best rides of my life or anything I could ask for on the career side..."
  — Nathan Thomas (03:29)
• On platform filtering:
  "My feed is majority ad tech and advertising at this point."
  — AdTechGod (08:16)
• On fragmentation and publisher struggle:
  "If you don't have a captivated engaged audience... that's gonna get real tough."
  — Nathan Thomas (09:54)
• On DOOH and impression multipliers:
  "One ad loaded, one impression. Cool, right? ... but on a billboard in Times Square, one impression is technically 2,500 eyeballs."
  — (13:17, 14:20)
• On curation hype:
  "You're basically announcing an ad network product and then people are like, no, the data's different. ... That is literally an ad network."
  — AdTechGod (26:11)
• On forecasts and buzz:
  "There’s always a new buzz every six months and that’s okay. Sometimes the buzz turns into reality... sometimes it fizzles."
  — AdTechGod (28:54)

Segment Timestamps for Key Moments

| Timestamp | Segment / Topic | |-----------|---------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:03 | Nathan’s Journey: Playwire, consulting, love for adtech | | 09:00 | The biggest changes in the publishing space | | 11:02 | Supply-side commoditization & CTV rate drops | | 12:31 | Digital Out of Home: opportunities, challenges, attribution | | 16:31 | Open web decline, LLMs, niche publishing, gaming | | 20:50 | Data ownership, cookie distractions, importance of control | | 23:47 | Curation fad and its pros/cons | | 27:21 | 2026 predictions: AI, data, curation, ad formats | | 29:24 | Thoughts on ADCP, OpenRTB, future of programmatic standards |

Final Thoughts & Tone

The episode balances nostalgia for "scrappy" adtech days past with optimism about innovation and pragmatic skepticism toward industry buzzwords and shiny objects. Both speakers are direct, wry, and jargon-savvy—grounded in supply-side operations and the publisher's perennial struggle to adapt, innovate, and avoid exploitation.

As Nathan puts it:

"Talking about ad tech's kind of a disease. Maybe, I don't know." (06:44)

If you want a clear-eyed take on where adtech’s been and where it might be going—from someone who’s lived every chapter—this episode delivers.