Podcast Summary

Podcast: AdTechGod Pod
Host: AdTechGod
Episode: The Refresh News: August 18 Walmart–Trade Desk Shift, Google’s AI Ad Fraud Push, and Upfronts 2025 Numbers
Date: August 18, 2025
Guest/Speaker: Kate (Marketecture/Refresh Segment Host)

Episode Overview

This episode delivers a brisk, insightful roundup of major developments in the advertising technology world for mid-August 2025. The main topics include the evolving partnership between Walmart and The Trade Desk, Google’s deployment of advanced AI against ad fraud, and a deep dive into the freshly released Upfronts 2025 TV and streaming ad spend data.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Walmart and The Trade Desk: Changing Relationship Status

(Start – 04:45)

• Partnership Background: Walmart and The Trade Desk have had an exclusive, high-profile partnership since 2021, recently renewed for four more years. However, Walmart is signaling interest in “exploring its options,” causing industry speculation (01:45).
• Strategic Tension:
  • Trade Desk’s access to Walmart’s retail data is “a critical status symbol and differentiator” in a landscape where independent DSPs increasingly look alike in features and data.
  • Despite the renewed partnership, “Walmart may be looking for greater negotiating power or expanded revenue opportunities… or they may be building out their own in-house buying platform.” (04:10)
• Industry Pressure:
  • The Trade Desk faces existential competition from Amazon, Google, and Meta, which boast vertical integration and direct access to “highly detailed first-party customer data.”
  • The host notes, “Advertisers can't resist the siren song of the all-powerful performance first capabilities…[of] Amazon, DV360, and Meta, thanks to their vertically integrated platforms.” (02:55)
• Trade Desk’s Differentiation Efforts:
  • Features like the AI-powered Kokai, OpenPath, and acquisition of metadata provider Sinceran are mentioned, though “opinion waffles on both the utility and functionality of Kokai.”
  • OpenPath has triggered pushback from publishers who feel “pushed out of the market.”
• Notable Quote:
  • “For any DSP, losing a differentiator like this just adds more weight onto an increasingly heavy load.” – Kate (04:37)

2. Google’s AI Approach to Fighting Ad Fraud

(04:46 – 07:25)

• Behind-the-Scenes Efforts: Google has “been quietly testing out machine learning and AI-based tools to eliminate or mitigate invalid traffic activity in web and app environments over the last year and a half.” (04:52)
• Technology Details:
  • Google is using “multimodal large language models designed to browse the web and apps the way a human would” (05:18), including the ability to “understand actual functionality and navigational components,” record accidental clicks, and screenshot poor ad quality.
  • These models send suspicious activity for human review before enforcing policy.
• Core Result: “One of these efforts led to a 40% reduction in mobile invalid traffic.” (06:08)
• AI’s Evolving Role:
  • “As humans, we cannot physically keep up with or address the sheer volume of issues… and although we're already using machine learning based AI techniques… we've also been waiting for these advanced AI opportunities like large language models to be put into play.” (06:32)
• Impact: These advances represent “a lot of promise for the ad industry to be able to create human-like reviews at a scale that we as humans just physically cannot.”
• Notable Quote:
  • “Large language models are able to understand context and engage on a level that is more human than ever. They improve on traditional machine learning thanks to their reasoning capabilities.” (06:49)

3. Upfronts 2025: TV vs Streaming Ad Spend

(07:26 – 09:40)

• TV Ad Commitments Trend:
  • “For the third year in a row, primetime TV ad commitments have declined.”
  • 2025 Figures:
    • Broadcast primetime: Down 2.5% to ~$9.1B (from $9.34B).
    • Cable: Down 4.3% to $8.68B (from $9.1B).
    • Streaming: Up 18% to $13.2B (from $11.2B).
    • Total: $31B for 2025 Upfronts vs $29.5B in 2024.
• Market Drivers:
  • Advertisers “continue to invest in more niche audiences… across a multitude of platforms” instead of chasing “monoculture moments” with primetime TV.
  • Shift reflects broader societal move towards “subcultures or microcultures.”
• Economic/Negotiation Dynamics:
  • Despite early 2025 tariff uncertainties, ad spend exceeded expectations; some networks “cut rates to secure more ad dollars,” but not as drastically as 2024.
  • CPM discussion:
    • Broadcast: $43.50 (down 4.1%)
    • Cable: $19.35 (down 6.1%)
    • Streaming: Down 7.6% (attributable to increased supply, not advertiser resistance)
• Premium Content & Streaming Growth:
  • Notable shift of “primetime content, particularly live sports, into streaming environments”—e.g., Tubi streaming the Super Bowl.
  • Major players now “making [premium content] ultra accessible for advertisers.”
• Notable Quote:
  • “It’s no surprise that advertisers want to invest more in streaming as audiences flock to it, but they’re also after the advanced capabilities that tech-powered streaming platforms present: nuanced audience targeting, more sophisticated measurement opportunities, and the growing ability to transact… programmatically.” (09:16)

Memorable Moments

• Taylor Swift Reference as Opener: Sets a light, pop-culture-infused tone (“At risk of alienating our listeners by making yet another Taylor Swift reference…this has been a huge week for Swifties.” – 01:04)
• Metaphor for Walmart–Trade Desk News:
  • “If people were still using Facebook to broadcast their relationship status to the world, Walmart and the Trade Desk’s would have just been updated from exclusive to open…” (01:17)
• Industry Realism:
  • “[Advertisers] actually invest in platforms that can show direct correlation to business outcomes… regardless of whether those results should actually be taken at face value.” (03:44)
• Optimistic Closer:
  • “That’s all we have time for this week. Thanks for joining us for the refresh and we’ll catch you next week.” (09:40)

Important Segment Timestamps

• [01:03] – Intro to main topics (Walmart/Trade Desk, Google’s AI, Upfronts news)
• [01:17 – 04:37] – Walmart/Trade Desk partnership analysis and industry context
• [04:46 – 07:25] – Google’s AI use in ad fraud prevention
• [07:26 – 09:40] – Upfronts 2025 results and insights into TV vs. streaming spend

Takeaways

• The Trade Desk’s exclusive relationship with Walmart could be waning, highlighting broader challenges for independent DSPs facing the might of vertically integrated Big Tech players.
• Google’s use of advanced AI and large language models for ad fraud defense is making a notable impact, demonstrating the necessity of AI to keep pace with malicious actors.
• Linear TV ad spend continues to erode, with streaming commanding a growing share thanks to audience behavior shifts and the programmatic, data-driven capabilities platforms can offer.
• The episode’s tone remains accessible, wry, and closely attuned to industry realities—balancing numbers, strategic context, and a dash of cultural commentary.