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Happy Easter, Happy Passover, Eid Mubarak, and Happy Holi. Right now, four out of the five major world religions are celebrating the holidays of springtime. Happy Spring. Unless you're in the Southern Hemisphere, in which case, Happy Fall. Let's kick off the April 2026 First Friday episode. Welcome to the Afford Anything podcast, the show that knows you can afford anything, not everything. This show covers five pillars, Financial, psychology, increasing your Inc. Investing, real estate, and entrepreneurship acronym Double I Fire. I'm your host, Paula Pan. I have a master's in economic reporting from Columbia. Once a month, on the first Friday of every month, I do a macroeconomic episode. This only happens once a month, always on the first Friday. We take a look at the economy, the stock market, the fed, interest rates, inflation. We see what's going on in the bigger world, and right now, there's a lot. So let's get started. We get to start off with some fantastic news. March blew it out of the water when it came to job growth. At least that is what we've learned from the BLS jobs report that just came out this morning. The U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs last month. We're back, baby. At least. Okay, let's not get irrationally exuberant, but it's a pretty stellar jobs report, and it's way better than what people expected after reading the ADP report. All right, so let's break it down. First, if you've been listening to this, these first Friday episodes for a while, you know that two days ahead of when the jobs report comes out. So two days ago on Wednesday, adp, which is a private payroll processor, publishes their own report. Now, their own report only looks at private sector data. ADP is a private payroll processor, so they just look at their own custom. But they have a lot of their own customers, so it's a huge data set. According to the ADP report, private sector job growth totaled 62,000 new jobs in the month of March. And so on Wednesday, we all looked at that and went, okay, cool. That's good. That's better than expected. That's nice. Cautious optimism. We're good. And then this morning, the BLS jobs report dropped, and it gave a number that was triple what the ADP report said. It gave a number that was triple of what people expected, what economists expected. So According to the BLS jobs report for the month of March, we have 178,000 new jobs that were added to the US economy. Our unemployment rate has ticked down a little bit. Not much, but it's 4.3%. The job gains according to the BLS report mostly occurred in healthcare, in construction. Interestingly, they said there were some gains in transportation. That actually contradicts a different report which we're going to talk about in a moment. And also in warehousing. Jobs in the federal government continue to decline. The overall labor force participation rate is steady. Average hourly earnings for all employees rose just a smidge by 2/10 of a percent over the year. Average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5%, meaning they've exceeded inflation. So it is overall a very optimistic report. Now, I will say because this optimism should be a little cautious, it's important to keep in mind that BLS reports get revised three times. In fact, they get revised one month later, two months later, and then there's a big annual revision. And that's a standard part of the process. So given that this jump in new hires so dramatically exceeds expectations, triples expectations, we will see whether or not there are revisions. Time will tell. And we should also take a look at other reports to see how the BLS data, you know, to get a comprehensive look to look at the BLS data in the context of the ADP data which as we said, reported 62,000 new jobs. We'll also, in a moment we're going to talk about the Jolts data. We're going to talk about the Challenger Gray and Christmas data. We'll talk about some other surveys as well. And by the way, if you're wondering why, why am I being so cautious? It's because this is such a deviation from what we've seen in the past. I mean, we have been looking at months of a storyline of being in a low hire, low fire environment. And so there are a few possible interpretations of this BLS data. It might be that the low, higher, low fire environment that we have been in is coming to a close, or it might be that we had a great month of March, but later in the spring we will have some reversion to the mean. Or it might be that we have to look back on the previous several months worth of data and reinterpret that data with a new lens. There are a lot of possibilities. But this morning's BLS report, which so exceeded expectations, I mean, what a stellar jobs report. It introduces a new variable and kind of shakes up the game when it comes to understanding what kind of a job market we are in. That's the point, right? The whole purpose of this report is to get a sense of what's the job situation out There. And now we have one new data point that is a bit of an outlier data point that says maybe, just maybe, the job situation is a little bit better than we thought. Of course, the BLS isn't the only game in town. There's also this thing called the Jolts survey. It's the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey. This measures something different then jobs. This measures job openings. You can see subtly related, but different. So how many jobs are available? That's what the JOLTS data tracks. The report that came out at the end of March tracked the data for February and it showed that February sucked. There were 6.8 million job vacancies according to the latest Jolts report. And that is a decrease of about 358,000 over the previous month. And that marks the biggest monthly decline in job openings since last September. No, sorry, I take that back. Since two Septembers ago. Since September of 2024. So what does that mean? It means there are fewer job opportunities out there. Now remember, JOLTS data lags the BLS jobs report by one month. But when you put them together, you paint a picture of a low fire, low hire environment. The data keeps coming back to that. Based on this latest Jolts report, that seems to be a trend that's only accelerating. There's another report. It's put out by this firm called Challenger Gray and Christmas. This report tracks job cuts. So you see the subtle differences. BLS and ADP track how many people are employed, ADP tracking the private sector specifically, and BLS taking a more comprehensive view. So BLS and ADP are how many people have jobs, JOLTS is how many job openings are there. And Challenger Gray, how many job cuts are there? And according to the Challenger Gray report, employers in the US cut over 60,000 jobs in the month of March. And that is an increase of 25% above the 48,000 jobs that got cut in February. There is good news though, because that's down from the 275,000 cuts announced during the same month last year. But those cuts same month last year, those were a reflection of that wave of big federal layoffs that happened in February and March of last year. So the cuts last year were mostly government jobs as well as some retail and technology. Whereas this year it's also technology, but transportation and interestingly, a little bit of healthcare. I say that's interesting because if you've listened to these first Friday reports, you see that the healthcare sector tends to be where job growth happens. Now a big slice of the layoffs are happening in Tech. Tech announced 18,720 job cuts in the month of March. So about one third of the total job cuts in March were from the tech sector. A big chunk of that came from a workforce reduction at Dell. But then also Oracle started reporting layoffs late in the month, but they haven't released a total figure yet. And Meta is undergoing layoffs in one of its divisions, its Reality Labs division. So Tech has the most layoffs. The second most layoffs comes from transportation. The Challenger Gray report notes that, quote, transportation industries, including airlines and shipping, will likely be squeezed by an ongoing war in Iran, end quote. The report goes on to say that the cuts that we've seen in transportation in Q1 of 2026 are the highest within the transportation sector. They're the highest cuts within that sector on record. Of course, it remains to be seen whether or not those jobs will come back later in the year. Now, that said, if you want to turn to the good news, the Challenger report also talks about hiring. And automotive leads all of the industries in hiring plans. In 2026, Automotive has announced hiring plans of around 12,000 people, followed by Entertainment and Leisure, another 8,000 people. Also, around 1 in 5 job openings that were announced last month are seasonal summer jobs. So far this year, employers have announced plans to hire 50,000 workers, and that is down just slightly 6% from the 53,000 new hires that were announced during that same period in 2025. So some cautious optimism. Switching gears. The Fed had a meeting March 17 and 18, and they did exactly what everyone expected them to do, which is they maintained the same interest rate that they've had for a while now. They've maintained the federal funds rate at a target range of between 3.5% to 3.75%. That is the second consecutive Fed meeting without a rate change. And a lot of analysts, Fed watchers, investors are anticipating that. Across the eight Fed meetings that we're going to have in 2026, a lot of Fed watchers are anticipating only one rate cut. The reason for that? High inflation and inflationary concerns. The Fed released a statement in which they talked about managing persistent inflation. They noted that for the last five years, we've been above the Fed's 2% target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell talked about how inflation has not come down as quickly as they had hoped. And that warrants a, quote, wait and see approach, end quote. The Fed did raise their GDP forecast. The GDP that they had been projecting for this upcoming year had been 2.3%. They raised it a smidge up to 2.4%. They also, however, in addition to raising the GDP growth forecast, they also raised their inflation projections up to 2.7%. Now their next meeting is scheduled for the end of April, 4-28-29. So at the next first Friday, I'll be able to tell you what they decided at that meeting. But as of right now, everyone's expecting that they will continue to hold rates steady. As I mentioned, the Fed meets eight times a year. They meet in six week increments. Now of course we can't talk about the Fed without talking about mortgage rates. I should note, by the way, just for an insight into how things work, the Fed technically does not set mortgage rates. They set the federal funds rate, which is the rate at which banks can lend money to other banks overnight. But that federal funds rate, the overnight bank lending rate, influences the 10 year treasury and the 10 year treasury heavily influences mortgage rates. So that's the cause and effect cycle. That's another way of saying while the Fed doesn't directly set mortgage rates, they highly influence it by virtue of influencing the 10 year Treasury. According to Bankrate, the average rate on a 30 year mortgage climbed this week. It's now at 6.44%. It's been at or above 6% all year, hovering in the low to mid 6% range right now. In particular, it is climbing because of inflation fears related to oil shocks, related to the cost of fuel. Because generally when people are worried about inflation, that's when the 10 year treasury tends to rise. Typically, mortgage rates are a spread of about 2 to 3 percentage points above the treasury yield. So if the treasury Yield is above 4%, then mortgage rates are going to be above 6%. As of a couple days ago, the 10 year treasury was yielding 4.32%, which is why you're seeing mortgage rates in the mid sixes. By the way, if you're wondering why the ten year tends to influence mortgage rates so much. So just think about like take a step back and think about it from the point of view of an investor. Imagine that you're going to make a loan to somebody for 30 years. That's a long duration loan and there's some risk associated with it. Although that loan is secured by a piece of collateral, the collateral being the home. So it's a secured risk, but it's a long duration risk. Right? That's what you're thinking about when you're thinking about giving a mortgage to someone. Now when you're thinking about a ten year treasury, the treasury is backed by the Federal Government, which is pretty secure, Right. There are other governments that have collapsed. I mean that, that's not out of the realm of possibility. But for the US government, the US is stable enough that if our government were to collapse, that would be globally catastrophic and we'd all have much bigger problems. It would be in no way comparable to, let's say the government of Nepal collapsing. That would present localized problems, but it wouldn't have the same kind of global ramifications. Right. So the US is an incredibly strong, it's the strongest nation in terms of how much faith we have in the credit of the US government. So if we are giving a loan to the US government, there is relatively low risk. And if it's a 10 year, then it's a low risk long duration loan. And so you think about how that's comparable. Right? A 30 year mortgage is because it's secured by the property. A 30 year mortgage is a low risk long duration loan. And a 10 year treasury is also a low risk long duration loan. And if you're sitting here thinking, well wait a minute, how are you comparing 10 years to 30 years? That doesn't make sense. What we know is from history is that the average lifespan of a US mortgage is between seven to 10 years. Around that time frame, people generally tend to sell their homes or refinance. In other words, what we know is that the realistic holding period in aggregate, your experience may vary, but in aggregate the realistic holding period is around 7 to 10 years. The other thing about 10 year treasuries is that they're fairly liquid. That's why treasury yields are moving around all the time in response to real time events. And because of that liquidity, it can serve as a global benchmark. So all of that is context to say investors are worried about inflation. Therefore 10 year treasury yields are high, therefore mortgage rates are high. And for as long as we're worried about inflation, it looks like it's going to stay that way for a while. So when you're setting expectations as to what's likely going to happen in the rest of 2026, more of this is likely to be the answer, at least as far as we can tell at this current moment in time. We're going to take a moment to hear from the sponsors who make the show possible. When we come back, I want to talk about gas prices, we'll talk the stock market, student loans, 401ks retirement. And we're going to share new information published by Vicki Robin. All of that is coming up next. Sleep is the foundation of your day. But you know when you're like laying in bed and you're just hot, you're like sweating and it's keeping you awake and so it messes with your sleep and then you're tired the next day. Well, Cozy Earth sells these temperature regulating bamboo sheets. 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Overall, oil futures rose by 51% in March. That is the largest one month gain since oil futures started trading back in 1983. And it is the largest percentage gain Since May of 2020 when prices began coming back after the height of the COVID lockdown. What that means for you is that gas prices in the US are in many places above $4 a gallon. Diesel is around $5.50 a gallon. This is the highest price since the summer of 2022. Back then, Russia's invasion of Ukraine shocked energy markets and led to $4 a gallon gas. Since then, gas prices came down significantly. In fact, in December 2025, January 2026, we were at the lowest gas prices that we had been at in four years. So as of early 2026, we had the lowest gas prices since the pandemic. Remember, gas prices hit for a while. They hit a real low during the pandemic. Back when no one was driving, no one was flying other than essential workers in early 2026, we were at record low gas prices. That mirrored that time, of course. Now, in a one month shock that happened across the month of March, we went from record lows to shocking highs. 20% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. However, there are many oil analysts who say that high fuel prices might persist even after normal tanker traffic resumes. High gas prices don't just have the direct effect on what you pay at the pump. It also affects every other market, ranging from fertilizer to metals like aluminum, to, of course, airlines. It impacts manufacturing. It impacts every sector of the economy. So when we ask the question, how is this going to affect the economy? Well, we of course never know the future, but we do know what has happened in the past. So we can look to history for some clues. Back In June of 2022, again, when we had that spike when Russia invaded Ukraine, gas actually went up as high as $5 a gallon in some areas. If you adjust that for inflation. Because think about the high inflation that's happened between 2022 and now in today's dollars, that is the equivalent of $5.56 per gallon today. So gas prices in the summer of 2022 were worse. And what we saw, at least at that time, was it did not have a major impact on consumer spending. We also have an example From June of 2008, when gas prices in inflation adjusted dollars reached what in today's dollars is the equivalent of $6.19 a gallon. Part of the reason that it didn't have major impacts on consumer spending is because total household spending on gasoline and other motor fuels is a fairly small percentage of overall household spending. So last year, consumer spending on gasoline and motor fuels was 1.5% of personal income, according to stats from the Commerce Department. Compare that to 2008, when it was 2.8%. So it's dropped by half, almost half now. That being said, as we've seen through a lot of these first Friday episodes, there's a difference between consumer sentiment and consumer behavior. So even if consumer behavior doesn't change, it does adversely affect sentiment. Because people don't tend to stand at the gas pump and think, well, in inflation adjusted dollars, it was worse in 2008. Like, no one thinks that. And when you're standing at the pump in particular, you have nothing else to do at the moment that you're fueling your gas tank. There's nothing else for you to do other than just stand there and watch that number go up. So there's A certain viscerality, there's a certain like emotional experience when you feel that number go up, that you get that experience at the tank. You don't get that when you're buying homeowners insurance. Those prices might go up too. That might actually take a bigger chunk out of your overall yearly spending, but you don't feel it as much, it's not as visceral. The other piece of it is that gas is something that you purchase frequently. So if you were to study inflation, inflation is comprised of all of the things that a household might buy, things that you buy frequently, as well as things that you buy infrequently. So you buy a dishwasher or a refrigerator infrequently, those prices might spike, but you don't feel it as much because you only buy those things once every 10 years. So what this means, again, it's a case for cautious optimism. Gas prices are high. This is the highest they've been since the summer of 2022. They also spiked very quickly, which meant people didn't get much time to adjust. By the way, the other recent time that that happened was after Hurricane Katrina in September of 2005. If you adjust for inflation, this is the largest five week increase since Hurricane Katrina disrupted fuel supplies. Prices are high, they spiked fast. But what we have seen in recent history is that that has not led to a major decrease in consumer spending, which is the primary engine of the US economy. So while I say there's a case for cautious optimism, again because there are inflation worries, given that high gas prices makes everything more expensive, while there are inflation worries, there is not a worry of GDP going down. In fact, like I mentioned earlier, the Fed predicts the GDP is going to go up. Consumers are still going to spend, at least if modern day reflects what has happened in previous instances in the past. So again, cautious optimism. Speaking of which, the stock market, we've seen a lot of volatility, particularly over the last five weeks. I wrote about this in my newsletter, which I sent out a newsletter on Monday, started a new thing called Three Things Monday, where every Monday I send out three things and the first thing that I talked about was the market. So over the last five weeks we've seen an enormous amount of market volatility. And the thing to remember when you look at market volatility is that the market consists of players with different timelines. If you are a trader who operates in increments of seconds or minutes or hours, you're going to have an incredibly different investment thesis than someone who operates in weeks or months or quarters. And then those people are going to have People who think in months or quarters are going to have a very different investment thesis than people who think in years or decades. And if you listen to this podcast, if you are an afforder, then my hope for you is that you think in years and decades and not in months or quarters. And the risk that you face. Morgan Housel talks about this. Where people often go wrong is they take their cues from players who are playing a different game. People who are playing the long term game take their cues from players who are playing the short term game. And when you're absorbing cues that are mismatched to your timeline and your goals, you. You often end up making the wrong choice. That's a way of saying if you're a long term investor, and I hope you are, meaning that you think in decades, don't take your cues from the people who are thinking in days, months, quarters, those two cohorts are going to have entirely different strategies, different sets of concerns. And if you're in the long term cohort, there is lots of reason to be bullish. The fundamentals around innovation, around technological advancements, around AI, around productivity gains, those fundamentals have not changed. So yeah, there's short term volatility. If you're a trader who operates in weeks, that matters. If you're a long term investor planning for a retirement, it doesn't. Keep that in mind. And remember that because of that volatility, it means that there are going to be moments when the stock market is on sale. And what do you do when something's on sale? You stock up. You buy more. And so the newsletter that I sent out on Monday with three things, Monday, that was the very first thing that I said. Stock up. No pun intended. Well, pun intended. You can subscribe. By the way, affordanything.com newsletter totally free. Speaking of retirement planning, there is a new proposal that was just released by the Department of Labor that would allow 401k plans to hold alternative assets. So the proposal establishes a set of safe harbors that plan fiduciaries can use when they're choosing alternative assets to hold inside of 401ks. Now, currently, people who manage 401k plans and other defined contribution. So let me back up when I say defined contribution. A defined contribution plan is a plan where you make contributions like a 401k or a 403b that is different from something that's called a defined benefit plan, which is a plan where you get benefits like a pension now, people who manage these two types of plans, people who manage defined contribution plans, have a different set of rules than the people who manage the defined benefit plans. The way the system works is that people who manage to find contribution plans like 401ks, they do have the authority to consider alternative assets. But there are so many regulations in place that realistically, historically, almost nobody does because compliance would be so onerous under this new proposal that the Department of Labor just put out people who manage these plans. Now, they would need to they would be legally required as a fiduciary to quote objectively, thoroughly and analytically consider and make determinations on factors including performance fees, liquidity, valuation, performance benchmarks, and complexity. End quote. So essentially, it's a proposal from the DOL to allow more options, more choices inside of 401ks. Right now, it's just a proposal. We'll see whether or not it actually clears, whether or not it passes. But if it does, it would reduce some of the regulatory burden and some of the litigation risk that fiduciaries currently face. There's a whole lot going on with the world of student loans. And we are going to take one final break to hear from the sponsors who make this possible. And when we return, we're going to dive into the student loan world. Before we do that, there's something that we should address. This is also something that I talked about in the newsletter that I sent out on Monday. And it came as a big surprise. If you are in the financial independence, retire early community, you most likely have heard of or read a book called you'd Money or your Life. It was co authored by Vicki Robin and Joe Dominguez in 1992, and it is widely renowned as the book that created the modern Fire movement. It sold over a million copies. Vicki Robin went on Oprah twice, actually. She wore the same dress both times just to prove the point that you don't have to buy a new dress for every occasion, even if that occasion is being on Oprah. They also were on Good Morning America and npr. They were written about in all the major publications. Wall Street Journal, People, Newsweek, New York Times. They were on hundreds of TV and radio shows talking about financial independence. The book youk Money or your Life spent more than five years on the BusinessWeek bestseller list. Obviously, it was a New York Times bestseller as well. That particular book was the real cornerstone, again published in 1992, and it was the cornerstone of the modern Fire movement, Money magazine. Sorry, I'll get to the point, but let me just kind of set up the context. So you understand, for people who aren't familiar with the book Money magazine, actually, in 2018, they published this article that was about how there's this growing cohort of millennials who are obsessed with early retirement. And, and the headline said, this 72 year old is their unlikely inspiration. That's a direct quote from the headline quote. This 72 year old is their unlikely inspiration. And by this 72 year old, they were referring to Vicki Robin. And so it was a. They published a cover story with the COVID of Money magazine was Vicki Robin. And the whole article was about the Fire Movement and about how Vicki Robin, back in 1992, laid that groundwork along with her co author, Joe Dominguez. And they were not just co authors, they were also romantic partners, life partners. That lasted until Joe Dominguez passed away in 1997. He was 58 years old. He passed away from cancer in 1997. After that, Vicki continued to promote the concept of financial independence and does continue to do so even today at the age of 80. She's turning 81 in July. All of that sets the context for how surprising it was in the Fire Movement when she published on. On Monday, she published a substack article. And I don't want to quote from it because this is a family friendly podcast and I know many of you are listening in the car with your kids. And there are certain things that she wrote that your kids should not hear, but suffice to say, allegations of abuse. I will place a link in the Show Notes to a copy of the newsletter that I wrote which has a summary of it. I will also place a link in the Show Notes to her substack article where you can read directly what she wrote. But that has sent shockwaves through the Fire community. If you would like to discuss it with other members of the community, please go to affordanything.com community where we can have a discussion there. I'll link to that in the Show Notes as well. Okay, we're gonna take a break and when we return, let's talk student loans. In business, there's no room for guesswork. Every shipment matters. Every deadline counts. When you're trying to keep operations running smoothly, the last thing you need is uncertainty. That's why reliability is at the core of USPS ground advantage. From the moment your package is first scanned in, it moves through a secure nationwide network, aiding in a timely and accurate delivery. You get near real time tracking so you can keep up with your shipments. And with affordable upfront pricing, there are no hidden fees or surprise surcharges to throw off your cost sheets. It all adds up to predictable deliveries you can depend on. 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Welcome back. This third portion of today's episode, I'm actually recording from the airport. So if you hear some sounds behind me, if you hear the the noise of the airport behind me, that's why. And if you're wondering, Paula, does that mean you packed a microphone in your carry on? Yes. Yes, I did. So let's talk about student loans. First of all, there's a portfolio of federal student loans that could soon be managed by the Treasury Department. So there's essentially a transfer of student loan borrowers accounts to the Treasury. This impacts 1.7 trillion worth of federal student loans, which currently is managed by the Department of Education. And, and the transition is going to occur in phases. So it's going to start with defaulted borrowers accounts and that is approximately one quarter of people who have borrowed. So there are 40 million Americans who have student debt and about a quarter of that 10, 10 million people, technically it's a little over 9 million people have defaulted on their student loans. Those are going to be the first student loans that will transfer from the Department of Education over to the treasury. That comprises about $180 million worth of defaulted loans. Now the idea behind this move is that the Treasury Department and the Department of Education are entering into what's known as an interagency agreement. And that means that the two departments will work together to manage federal student loans and to try to get defaulted borrowers back onto a repayment plan. That is among a series of changes. So earlier there was a particular income driven repayment plan called the Save Plan, which was eliminated earlier this year. There are around 7 million people who are enrolled in Save and they have already been in forbearance for a year and a half while there's been a court battle about what's going to happen to the Save plan. But the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals ended that legal challenge and instructed a district court to approve a settlement that would end the program with the end of the Save plan. That means those borrowers need to apply for an alternative payment plan. And those borrowers are going to get a notice on July 1st. And on July 1st, that notice is going to say that they have 90 days to switch to a new repayment plan. And if they don't transfer to a new plan by the deadline, they'll be automatically enrolled in what's called the standard repayment plan or the new tiered standard plan. And the tiered standard plan is, is something newly formed that's going to start in July. Anyway. That all is a bit of a, an aside. I talk about the Save Plan in the context of changes that are being made to student loan repayment generally. There are actually a number of changes that the OBBBA set into place. But the big one that's grabbed headlines recently is the ending of the Save Plan. That all is to say, everything that's happening there with the Save Plan is in the context of this new interagency agreement where the Treasury Department is going to start taking over in phases more and more student loans. So cutting to the chase, if you have student loans, here are a few things that you need to know. First of all, keep making payments to your same loan servicer just like you always have been. Whatever it is that you've already been doing, don't stop doing that. And if you're not sure what servicer you're supposed to make payments to, if you log into the federal student aid site, you can see what servicer you've been assigned. Now if you have defaulted on your loan, then the website that you want to go to is myedd.ed.gov so it's a mouthful. We'll put it in the show notes. MyEd Debt Ed that's the website you should go to if you have defaulted on your student loan, because that website has a bunch of information about what your choices are in terms of resolving that default. So it might mean loan consolidation, it might mean loan rehabilitation. Just know that your student loan debt is not dischargeable in bankruptcy. So defaulting on your loan might lead to involuntary collections. For example, there might be a collection from your tax refund or perhaps even wage garnishment. Now, currently the Education Department has delayed any involuntary collections, but that delay is temporary. So if you are in default, go to that website. We'll put a link to it in the Show Notes to look at some of your options. The other major thing to know and sorry, they're boarding my flight so I've actually got to run. The other major thing to note is if you are a parent and if you've borrowed money on the Parent plus Loan, you starting in July will no longer qualify for Income Driven Repayment Plans. Hopefully, if you are a Parent plus borrower, hopefully you have already consolidated your loans because the deadline was April 1st and that was the deadline in order to make sure that that loan is officially processed by the June 30 deadline, which would allow parents to retain access to the Income Driven Repayment Plans. If you haven't done so, new rules take effect July 1 and that income Driven Repayment will no longer be an option. A lot of changes in the student loan arena. We've kind of just touched on the subject. There is definitely a deep dive there. We could probably do a whole episode deep diving into all of the student loan changes. We actually should do that soon because there is a lot going on, a lot changing, especially this summer. Okay, thank you so much for tuning in. My name is Paula Pant. This is the Afford Anything podcast. If you enjoyed today's episode, please share it with friends, family, neighbors, colleagues. Subscribe to our newsletter affordanything.com Newsletter I'm Paula Pant. This is the Afford Anything podcast and I'll meet you in the next episode. Now, if you have defaulted on your loan, Passenger Jones, go to that website. We'll put a link to it in the show notes to look at. Welcome our concierge key passengers to look at. To look at some of your options.
Afford Anything | Make Smart Money Choices with Paula Pant
First Friday: Jobs Are Up. So Why Does the Economy Feel Worse?
April 3, 2026
Episode Overview
This First Friday macroeconomic update with Paula Pant dives into the paradox between positive job market data and pervasive negative sentiment about the economy. Paula dissects several new economic reports (BLS jobs, ADP, JOLTS, Challenger Gray & Christmas), explains shifting Federal Reserve (Fed) policies, breaks down mortgage and gas price spikes, highlights regulatory changes in 401k investment options, summarizes major student loan transitions, and responds to recent turmoil in the FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) community.
The episode is rich with data, transparent about uncertainty, and encourages “cautious optimism” while acknowledging persistent inflation, market volatility, and consumer unease.
[00:00–11:00]
"It's a pretty stellar jobs report, and it's way better than what people expected after reading the ADP report."
— Paula Pant, 02:10
[11:00–17:00]
[17:00–21:00]
[21:00–26:00]
"Investors are worried about inflation. Therefore 10 year treasury yields are high, therefore mortgage rates are high."
— Paula Pant, 25:54
[29:32–34:30]
[34:30–37:00]
[37:00–38:43]
[39:32–End]
[38:00–39:32]
On interpreting conflicting labor reports:
"This morning's BLS report... introduces a new variable and kind of shakes up the game when it comes to understanding what kind of a job market we are in."
— Paula Pant, 07:20
On gas prices emotional impact:
"There is a certain viscerality, there’s a certain like emotional experience when you feel that number go up..."
— Paula Pant, 34:20
On investment time horizons:
"If you’re a long-term investor, and I hope you are... don’t take your cues from people who are thinking in days, months, quarters. Those two cohorts are going to have entirely different strategies."
— Paula Pant, 36:40
Tone & Style:
Paula remains calm, analytical, and practical—often encouraging “cautious optimism” while providing clear explanations and historical context for economic uncertainty. Her humor and warmth (even when recording from an airport) help humanize complex topics.
For Listeners Who Missed the Episode:
This episode is a thoughtful, thorough macro update that unpacks the contradiction between headline economic “wins” (job growth, rising GDP) and ongoing worries (inflation, layoffs, gas price spikes, student loan changes). Paula emphasizes the value of a long-term mindset in investing, maintains perspective on alarming news, and offers actionable advice amid uncertainty, especially around student loans and retirement planning.
Further Discussion & Resources:
End of Summary.