Afford Anything Podcast — First Friday: When the Gov’t is Closed, Where Do We Find the Numbers?

Host: Paula Pant | November 7, 2025 | Cumulus Podcast Network

Episode Overview

This special First Friday Economic Update tackles a rare situation: a key government shutdown means there is no official monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Host Paula Pant dives into how we interpret the economy's pulse when our usual data sources are offline, turning to private sources and aggregators. The episode covers the mixed signals in the job market, implications of the latest Fed rate cut, movement in mortgage rates and housing, the state of car loans and vehicle repossessions, significant changes in prescription drug pricing, and the widespread effects of the government shutdown—especially on ordinary Americans.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Jobs Data in the Absence of the BLS Report (00:45–08:00)

• Conflicting Private Sector Data

  • ADP reports a net gain of 42,000 private-sector jobs in October, with gains in service sectors and large businesses ("Big businesses added 73,000 jobs. Small and mid-size businesses lost jobs, so the net gain was 42,000." — Paula Pant, 03:40).
  • Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports 153,000 job cuts in October—the highest for any single month in 20+ years, driven by tech and warehousing, mainly due to AI-related restructuring.
  • Revelio Labs shows a net job loss of 9,000 in October, factoring in public sector employment.

• Youth and Long-Term Unemployment

  • Alarmingly high youth unemployment (ages 16–24) at 10.5%, highest since the pandemic (07:00).
  • Long-term unemployed (jobless 27+ weeks) now comprise 25% of all unemployed.

"According to the last official data, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Despite that steadiness, the long-term unemployed have grown."
— Paula Pant (07:40)

• The Paradox: Low Unemployment, Low Job Creation

  • Fewer people are fired and fewer are hired; those with jobs hold onto them, but new jobs are rarely created.
  • “Fed Chair Jerome Powell phrased the answer very, very well when he said, ‘You’ve got a low firing, low hiring environment.’” — Paula Pant (08:30)

• AI’s Role: Just One Facet

  • While AI is contributing to layoffs (especially in entry-level roles), Powell and Jamie Dimon note broader economic sluggishness plays a stronger role.

2. Fed Rate Cut and Economic Implications (09:00–12:10)

• Recent Fed Decision & New Culture
  • Second consecutive rate cut: new target range is 3.75–4%. Notable: two FOMC dissenters—one wanted a bigger cut, another wanted none—reflecting increased openness to disagreement at the Fed.
  • Lower rates help borrowers (car loans, mortgages, personal loans) but hurt savers.

“The fact that there were two dissenting votes this time around shows that dissent is now a thing again inside of the Fed, which indicates a cultural shift from the way that it used to be.” — Paula Pant (10:00)

• Forecasts

  • Markets price in a 65% probability of another cut in December (Goldman Sachs, CME FedWatch).
  • Mortgage rates down from summer peak, now at 6.26% (30-year fixed), but still above the 6% “inflection point” necessary to unlock broader market activity.

• Housing Market Stagnation

  • High rates keep existing homeowners "locked in."
  • Only 1 in 10 mortgaged households have rates in the 5–6% bracket; freeing them (by dropping rates below 6%) would spur housing activity (12:00).

3. Employment Trends & Consumer Sentiment (18:51–21:00)

• Indeed Job Postings (18:51)
  • New job postings at their lowest in four years (excluding pandemic crash).
• University of Michigan Sentiment (19:10)
  • Consumer sentiment fell 6% in November, reflecting declining personal finances and pessimism about the coming year, except among the wealthiest with stock portfolios.

“Across the population, sentiment is down. People are feeling pessimistic. The one exception: people who own a lot of stocks.” — Paula Pant (19:45)

4. Social Security, Inflation, and Healthcare Costs (21:20–23:00)

• Social Security COLA
  • Payments to rise 2.8% in January 2026 (on top of previous 8.7% hike after 2023 inflation spike).
  • Translates to ~$56 more per month for average retirees.
• Recent Inflation
  • Overall: 3% increase (YoY Sept data).
  • Used cars/trucks up 5.1%, medical care up 3.9%, gas down slightly.

5. Car Payments and Vehicle Repossession (23:00–25:00)

• Repos Up Drastically
  • Highest since 2009, up 43% since 2022.
  • Average new car payment: $749/mo. Used cars: $529/mo. (“If you want a payment under $400 a month, buy a used car.” — Paula Pant, 24:20)
• Coverage Tips
  • Consider minimal insurance if car is paid off to save money and redirect "payments" to future vehicle purchase funds.

6. Prescription Drug Pricing Revolution (25:00–29:00)

• Major Pharma Deals
  • AstraZeneca and Pfizer will set US prices for many drugs to "most favored nation" (lowest developed-world) levels. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk join with similar deals for medications including Ozempic, Wegovy, insulin, and migraine treatments.
  • Example: Ozempic and Wegovy dropping from $1,000–$1,350/month to $350; Medicare and Medicaid prices set at $245; co-pays for beneficiaries at $50.

“Americans pay three times the rate of people in other developed nations for many brand-name drugs…between the Pfizer deal in September and AstraZeneca in October, that is now starting to shift. That is some good news for your wallet.” — Paula Pant (27:50)

Notable New Drug Prices:

• Ozempic/Wegovy: ~$350/month (down from $1,000+)
• Medicare/Medicaid: $245/month, $50 co-pay
• Insulin (Novo Nordisk): $35/month
• Migraine drug (Mgalidy): $2.99/pen (down $443)
• Trulicity: $389 (down $598)

7. Fallout from the Longest-Ever Government Shutdown (29:00–end)

• Day 38: Federal Paychecks on Hold

  • Many banks waiving fees or offering zero/low-interest loans for impacted federal employees (Citibank, Capital One, Wells Fargo).
  • Advice: "If that's you…call your bank or credit card, ask for assistance." (31:00)

• Housing Closings Delayed

  • USDA and national flood insurance-backed loans stalled.
  • FHA and VA loans moving slowly due to IRS verification issues.
  • Advice: Keep communication lines open with sellers, expect delays; “You just have to wait and hope the seller is patient.” (33:30)

• Student Loans

  • Payments still due, but servicers may offer forbearance/deferment. However, this pauses progress toward Public Service Loan Forgiveness.

• Travel Chaos

  • FAA flight reductions causing widespread delays; advice to check FlightAware or airport sites frequently and plan for long waits at airports.
  • Example: As of Friday, Toronto experiencing 1:44 average delays, Houston and Chicago O’Hare over one hour (“Bring snacks and be nice to the TSA agents!” — Paula Pant, 35:50)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On jobs confusion:
  “ADP data says that the US gained 42,000 jobs in October. Challenger, Gray & Christmas says that US companies had 153,000 job cuts. Revelio Labs says overall, we lost 9,000. These numbers are coming from different data sources, so you want to look at them all to piece together the picture.” — Paula Pant (04:30)

• On the “locked in” housing market:
  “When we can get mortgage rates into the 'five handle,' we start freeing up owners who might want to move. That’s when activity picks up.” — Paula Pant (12:00)

• On consumer mood:
  “Across the population, all age brackets, all income brackets, all political affiliations, sentiment is down. People are feeling pessimistic. The one exception: people who own a lot of stocks, because those portfolio balances are up.” — Paula Pant (19:45)

• On prescription pricing changes:
  "Americans pay three times what other countries do for the same drug...for the first time, that is starting to change, thanks to these new pharma deals." — Paula Pant (28:30)

• On the shutdown’s personal impact:
  “Many banks and credit cards have special programs for federal workers—waived fees, zero interest loans—call them and ask.” — Paula Pant (31:12)

Important Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamp | |-------------------------------------------|---------------| | Intro & main theme | 00:00–01:30 | | Jobs data deep dive | 01:30–08:30 | | ADP, Challenger, Revelio jobs stats | 03:40–07:00 | | Youth/long-term unemployment, Powell quote| 07:00–09:00 | | Fed rate cut, dissent and impact | 09:00–12:10 | | Housing market and mortgage rates | 12:10–14:40 | | Consumer sentiment, Michigan/Indeed stats | 18:51–20:20 | | Social Security/Inflation update | 21:20–23:00 | | Car loans, average costs, repos | 23:00–25:00 | | Pharma deal: lower drug prices | 25:00–29:00 | | Shutdown repercussions: banks, housing | 29:00–33:45 | | Student loans | 33:45–34:45 | | Travel delays, airport situation | 34:45–36:45 |

Takeaways & Final Thoughts

• Economic Uncertainty: In a month without the main government jobs report, interpreting the U.S. labor market requires triangulating diverse private data sources—and none tell a clear or reassuring story.
• Fed, Rates, and Real Estate: Ongoing rate cuts provide some relief to borrowers but may not revive the housing market until mortgage rates dip below 6%.
• Financial Stress Spreading: Youth and long-term unemployed are especially vulnerable, car repossessions are up, and consumers’ mood (outside of the investor class) is souring.
• Wins for Prescription Affordability: Huge reductions in drug prices from the world’s biggest pharma firms signal landmark change for millions of Americans.
• Shutdown Ripples: If you’re a federal worker or homebuyer, proactive communication with financial institutions and vendors is key during delays.

Paula Pant’s Parting Advice:
“Share this episode with friends, family, and colleagues. The more informed we are, the more adaptive and resilient we become.” (37:45)

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