First Friday: Why Americans Are More Pessimistic Than Ever

Summary

Afford Anything Podcast Summary: "First Friday: Why Americans Are More Pessimistic Than Ever"

Episode Overview

In this compelling episode of the Afford Anything podcast titled "First Friday: Why Americans Are More Pessimistic Than Ever," host Paula Pant delves into a comprehensive macroeconomic update coinciding with the Fourth of July celebrations. Breaking from the show's usual focus on financial psychology and decision-making, this First Friday episode provides listeners with an in-depth analysis of current economic policies, market dynamics, and consumer sentiment shaping the American landscape in July 2025.

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1. Historical Context and National Celebrations

Timestamp: 00:01 - 04:59

Paula Pant begins the episode by acknowledging Independence Day, highlighting its historical significance as the day the thirteen colonies declared independence from Britain. She shares intriguing trivia about U.S. presidents, noting the statistical improbability that three out of 45 presidents have died on July 4th, including two signers of the Declaration of Independence, Thomas Jefferson and John Adams, who both passed away on the same day, July 4th, 1826.

Notable Quote:
"If you could rerun American history 4,000 times, this would happen maybe once." (02:15)

This segment sets a reflective tone, connecting national pride with the current economic discourse.

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2. Presidential Domestic Policy Bill: The "Big Beautiful Bill"

Timestamp: 05:00 - 09:50

Paula shifts focus to contemporary political developments, specifically President Trump's anticipated signing of a significant domestic policy bill, dubbed the "Big Beautiful Bill." This legislation primarily involves the extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, preventing tax increases for most Americans and avoiding a further reduction in taxes.

Key Points:

• Tax Implications: The bill ensures existing tax cuts remain in place, averting tax hikes but not providing additional reductions.
• National Debt: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the bill will increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade. Paula references a prior episode for a deeper dive into CBO's methodology.
• Impact on Entitlements and Education:
  • Cuts to Medicaid and other entitlement programs.
  • Imposition of new limits on student loan borrowing, including a $65,000 lifetime cap on Parent PLUS loans and elimination of the Graduate Plus Loan program.
  • Expansion of 529 plan eligible expenses, including K-12 costs, and increased annual withdrawal limits for tuition.

Notable Quote:
"This bill makes cuts to Medicaid and other entitlement programs. It adds limits to student loan borrowing and makes changes to federal aid eligibility." (06:30)

Paula emphasizes the bill's significant repercussions for students, parents, and educational planning, hinting at future content on navigating college finances amid these changes.

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3. Tariffs and International Trade Dynamics

Timestamp: 09:51 - 19:17

The discussion transitions to international trade, focusing on the impending reinstatement of tariffs as the 90-day pause lapses on July 9th. Paula provides a detailed overview of the countries affected and the rationale behind the varying tariff rates.

Key Points:

• Tariff Rates: Tariffs will range from 10-20% on most countries, with specific nations like Lesotho facing higher rates up to 60-70%.
• Historical Context: Traditionally, tariffs targeted specific industries (e.g., steel, aluminum, automobiles) rather than countries. The current approach marks a shift towards country-specific tariffs.
• Negotiations and Exemptions: Some countries, such as the UK and Vietnam, have reached deals to stabilize their tariff rates, while others remain subject to new rates.
• Impact on the Economy: Reevaluation of tariff implications on prices and trade balances, with particular attention to sectors temporarily exempt from tariffs like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

Notable Quote:
"Historically speaking, it is unusual to impose tariffs based on country. Historically speaking, tariffs have typically been imposed based on industry rather than based on national origin." (15:40)

Paula underscores the uncertainty tariffs introduce into the market, affecting everything from import costs to consumer prices.

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4. Analyzing the Jobs Report: Public vs. Private Sector

Timestamp: 19:18 - 20:56

Before transitioning into a break for sponsorships, Paula begins unpacking the recently released June jobs report. Highlighting the discrepancy between the government’s broad employment data and the private sector's more modest gains, she sets the stage for a nuanced analysis post-ad break.

Key Points:

• Overall Job Growth: The U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June with an unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, exceeding economists' expectations of 110,000 jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate.
• Public vs. Private Sector: While state and local governments, along with the healthcare sector, drove job growth, the private sector experienced a decline of 33,000 jobs, primarily affecting small businesses with fewer than 50 employees.

Notable Quote:
"The jobs report from the Labor Department is telling the story of growth. The ADP report is saying we lost 33,000 jobs." (19:50)

This segment highlights the complexity of the labor market, where official statistics may mask underlying weaknesses in the private economy.

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5. Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations

Timestamp: 20:57 - 34:30

Post-ad break, Paula delves deeper into consumer sentiment and inflation metrics, drawing connections between economic indicators and public perception.

Key Points:

• Consumer Confidence: The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers indicate that consumer sentiment is 18% lower than December of the previous year, reflecting ongoing concerns about economic slowdown and inflation.
• Inflation Rates:
  • Current Data: Annual inflation stands at 2.4% (CPI) and 2.5% (PCE), nearing the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.
  • Consumer Expectations: Despite falling inflation rates, consumers' expectations remain anchored to mid-2022 levels when inflation peaked, suggesting persistent anxiety.
• Fed's Stance: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic remarks that while inflation has decreased from its mid-2022 peak, uncertainties surrounding tariffs, fiscal policies, and global tensions compel the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious "wait and see" approach regarding interest rate adjustments.

Notable Quotes:
"The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers... consumer sentiment is 18% lower than it was in December of last year." (24:10)
"Inflation has fallen substantially from peaks in mid-2022... I believe a period characterized by such widespread uncertainty is no time for significant shifts in monetary policy." (33:45)

Paula highlights the psychological aspect of economic decision-making, illustrating how entrenched expectations can influence both consumer behavior and policy outcomes.

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6. Concluding Insights: Stagnation Amid Stability

Timestamp: 34:31 - End

Paula synthesizes the episode's discussions, drawing parallels between the Federal Reserve's cautious policy stance and the stagnant job market. She posits that in an environment fraught with uncertainty—ranging from international trade tensions to domestic policy shifts—both economic policymakers and businesses are adopting a wait-and-see approach.

Key Points:

• Economic Parallelism: Just as the Fed refrains from aggressive policy changes, employers in the private sector are hesitant to ramp up hiring amidst economic uncertainties.
• Investor Guidance: In times of volatility, Paula advises maintaining a steady course, reflecting the broader theme of making informed and measured decisions amidst unpredictability.

Notable Quote:
"Across both the job market and in the Fed, we're seeing the same tactics play out. Hold steady, wait and see on the 4th of July 1st Friday, the 249th birthday of the United States." (34:00)

Paula concludes by encouraging listeners to stay informed, share insights with their communities, and prepare for ongoing economic shifts.

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Final Thoughts

This First Friday episode of Afford Anything offers listeners a thorough examination of current economic conditions, blending historical context with present-day policy analysis. Paula Pant effectively highlights the dissonance between headline optimism and underlying pessimism, urging a balanced and thoughtful approach to financial decision-making in uncertain times.

For more insights and detailed analyses, listeners are encouraged to subscribe to the Afford Anything newsletter and engage with the community through various platforms.

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Connect with Afford Anything:
Website: affordanything.com
Newsletter: affordanything.com/newsletter

Transcript

[Paula Pant]

Happy First Friday, Fourth of July Independence Day. This is the day when the Founding Fathers officially announced through the Declaration of Independence that the thirteen colonies were breaking free from the authority of the British crown. Happy birthday, America. And First Friday is, of course, the one day of the month when this podcast takes a departure from our regular programming to share a monthly macroeconomic update. And this year they've joined forces. So welcome to the 4th of July, first Friday on the Afford Anything podcast. This is the show that knows you can afford anything, but not everything. The show covers five financial, psychology, increasing your income, investing, real estate, and entrepreneurship. And as I mentioned, once a month, on the first Friday of the month, we pause our typically evergreen programming to share a snapshot about what's happening in the economy, in the markets over the span of the last month. And so welcome to the Fourth of July. First Friday, it's a big day. President Trump is expected to sign his new domestic policy bill into law this afternoon. We'll unpack what's inside of that later in the show. Tariffs are going to go back into Place starting July 9. The 90 day pause on tariffs, which was implemented in April, is set to expire five days from now. On the 9th of July, we're going to talk more about that. The jobs report is incredibly nuanced and I want to unpack beyond the headlines to see what's really going on in our jobs market. We're going to talk about housing, we're going to talk interest rates. We're going to talk about the strength of the US Dollar. But before we get to all of that, I want to share some Fourth of July trivia. Let's start with a quick history lesson. What was happening around this time 249 years ago? Well, on June 28, September 1776, there was a five member committee that was in charge of drafting the formal declaration. And on June 28, they presented that draft declaration to Congress. It was a super short document, only around 1300 words. And four days later, on July 2nd, Congress voted in favor of the Declaration of Independence. In an almost unanimous vote, New York abstained. But even though they voted in favor of it, they kept editing it. And so it was two days later, on July 4th, 4th, 1776, that Congress formally adopted and signed the Declaration of independence. And 249 years later, here we are. And this is an economics episode, not a history episode. So I will leave it there. But I do want to share one more piece of Fourth of July trivia, because the thing that I'm about to tell you next, I think is fascinating because it's so statistically improbable. There have been a total of 45 US presidents. Our current President Trump, we call him number 47 because two of those presidents have served non consecutive terms. Grover Cleveland is counted as both the 22nd and 24th. And President Trump is counted as both the 45th and 47th. In total, there have been 45 US presidents over the span of the last 236 years. George Washington became president in 1789. Now, of those 45 presidents, three out of 45, meaning 6.7% of all presidents that we've ever had passed away on the Fourth of July. That is so statistically improbable. If you could rerun American history 4,000 times, this would happen maybe once. And we happen to live in that one timeline where the improbable became reality for one out of every 365 days of the year. To have that kind of concentration on a single day, that is an oddity of history. And two out of the three presidents that passed on the fourth were signers of the Declaration of Independence. So Thomas Jefferson and John Adams both signed the declaration and both passed away on the exact same day, which was July 4th, 1826. And the other president who passed on the 4th was James Monroe, and that happened exactly five years later, July 4th, 1831. So that is an oddity of US history. Weird history. But if you're sharing 4th of July trivia with your family at the barbecue tonight, that is an interesting tidbit to keep in your back pocket. Moving off of history and onto economics. This afternoon, President Trump is expected to sign his domestic policy bill, known as the Big Beautiful Bill, into law. We are recording this at 12 noon Eastern on the 4th of July. As of now, the bill signing has not happened, but by the time you hear this, it likely will have already taken place. Now, the core of this bill is the extension of the 2017 tax cuts and Jobs Act. And so this bill keeps in place a round of tax cuts that were made in 2017, which means that as taxpayers, we're not going to see our taxes decrease further. We're simply not going to see an increase. And without the extension of the 2017 tax reduction, for most Americans, taxes would have otherwise increased. The extension of the tax cuts comes at a cost. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will add 3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. As we talked about in last month's first Friday episode, the debate around CBO numbers centers around the question of whether or not, among other things, whether or not it it adequately takes into account GDP growth stemming from reinvestments that are triggered by tax cuts which would have an offsetting effect to national debt levels. Some people will argue that the CBO is great at estimating that. Others will argue that it is not. For a much more detailed discussion about that, listen to last month's first Friday episode where we covered the CBO methodology in much more detail. For now, we'll keep our attention on what the passage of this bill means for you. This bill makes cuts to Medicaid and other entitlement programs. It adds limits to student loan borrowing and makes changes to federal aid eligibility and it rolls back tax credits for clean energy. I want to spend some time talking about its impact on student loan borrowing and federal aid eligibility because that's the issue that's going to affect the majority of people who are listening to this. I know many of you, and likely most of you, either currently have student loans, previously had student loans, or you're saving for college expenses for your children, nieces, nephews, grandchildren. First, the bill eliminates most existing income driven repayment plans and replaces them with a standard repayment plan that's based on loan amounts ranging between 10 to 25 years. There's also a new repayment assistance plan which is based on a borrower's annual income which would be measured at between 1% to 10% of discretionary income. The new bill also imposes a 65,000 lifetime cap on Parent PLUS loans, which previously Parent PLUS loans was there. The limit was based on the cost of attendance. Now that limit has a lifetime cap of 65,000. In addition, Parent PLUS loans are no longer eligible for repayment programs. The bill also eliminates the Graduate Plus Loan program and it implements new caps on loans that grad students can take out. Under this new bill, the cap for a master's degree is $100,000. The cap for med school, law school or certain professional degrees is $200,000. There's great news for anyone with a 529 plan. The bill expands eligible 529 expenses. Specifically, it expands the types of K12 expenses that can be paid for with 529 plans, including books, tutoring and more. And that's in addition to increasing the annual withdrawal limit for K12 tuition to $20,000. There's also good news for small business owners and small family farmers. Small so the bill reinstates the asset exemption for family farms and small businesses when determining a student's federal aid eligibility at some point. I've had this idea brewing in my head for a while. At some point I want to write a newsletter around the ultimate guide to getting through college without taking out too much debt. And particularly in light of some of these changes to student loan borrowing and federal aid eligibility, I think now would be a particularly good time to do that. So I've in the back of my brain, been sketching out an outline for it. It'll probably be a few weeks before I have it written and sent out, but that's a newsletter topic that I think is timely and needed. So if that's something that interests you, go to affordanything.com Newsletter Sign up for our newsletter. It's free and I will likely have that written. I'd say at some point in July, though I'm not quite sure when. Again, that's affordanything.com Newsletter the signing of the bill is not the only major news event that's expected to happen today. Today, the president will also start sending letters to the heads of dozens of countries to inform them of the tariff rate that will be imposed on them. And this tariff rate will range from a low of between 10 to 20% to to as high as 60 to 70%, according to remarks that President Trump made to reporters last night. That means that some countries may experience a rate that is higher than the original round of tariffs. Now, if you recall, the original round of tariffs were announced on Liberation Day in early April, and the original round of tariffs ranged from 11%, a low of 11%. That was for the Democratic Republic of Congo, up to a high of 50%. That was for Lesotho. To be clear, those are the rates that were imposed on specific countries. That would be on top of a 10% baseline tariff. Those original tariffs were imposed only on U.S. trading partners, and they were calculated using a formula that took into account the trade deficit basically between the US and the other country. So Lesotho, for example, Lesotho is a country that is entirely landlocked by South Africa. So imagine an island, except instead of an island being surrounded by water, that island is surrounded entirely by another country. That's Lesotho. It's a quote unquote island, so to speak, but landlocked and surrounded on all sides entirely by South Africa. Now, we have a big trade deficit with Lesotho because we import jewels from Lesotho, specifically diamonds. We import a lot of diamonds from Lesotho. We also get a lot of textiles from them. Textiles and diamonds are the two main imports that the US Receives from Lesotho or to say it a different way, those are the two main exports that Lesotho exports to the U.S. but Lesotho is also a very poor country. About half the population lives below the national poverty line and a small significant portion of them experience extreme poverty. Lesotho has a GDP per capita of around $974 per person. That's in US dollars for the entire nation. The nominal GDP of lisuthu is only 2.1 billion. And so it doesn't import a lot of things from the US because frankly, it's too poor to do so. For that reason, we have a huge trade deficit with them, which is why in the original round of tariffs, Lesotho got hit the hardest with the 50% tariff. What will be interesting to see now that the letters, and again, President Trump is going to be sending these letters out today. So we will find out in a few days time what the new tariff rates are. What will be interesting to see is whether or not these rates have been adjusted over the span of the last three months. Why three months now? As you recall, after the original round of tariffs were announced in early April, on Liberation Day, the bond markets reacted disfavorably to that announcement. After a few days, the White house announced a 90 day pause on tariffs. That 90 day pause is set to expire on July 9, five days from now. During this 90 day interim period, there have been negotiations going on with other nations and some of those have been successful. So for example, Britain and the US Reached a deal that leaves our base tariff rate with them at 10%. Vietnam and the US came to a deal in which the base tariff rate would be 20% for goods that come from Vietnam, but a higher rate for goods that are from China that then get routed through Vietnam. Speaking of which, China, when the 90 day pause on tariffs was implemented, all tariffs were set at a baseline of 10% with the exception of China, which, which was set at a baseline of 145%. But then later in May, as the result of negotiations, that tariff on China, which also applies to Macau and Hong Kong, was temporarily reduced down to 30%. Because tariffs on China are so onerous, many Chinese goods do get routed through other countries. They route through Vietnam, they route through Mexico. And that is one of the issues that these rounds of negotiations are intended to solve. Our deal with Vietnam being a prime example. That said, there were a number of countries that did not reach deals in either May or June, and many of those nations now will be receiving letters which will be sent today informing them of what the new base tariff rate will be. And the reason I say base tariff is because these are tariffs that are applied flatly to any good that flows out of that particular country, regardless of what type of good it is. That's notable because remember, when we talk about tariffs, it's actually historically speaking. Back to a history lesson again. Historically speaking, it is unusual to impose tariffs based on country. Historically speaking, tariffs have typically been imposed based on industry rather than based on national origin. And so there are tariffs that continue to be industry specific. So for example, there are currently tariffs on steel and aluminum. Those are industry specific. There are tariffs on automobiles and automobile parts. Of course, those are also industry specific. So historically tariffs have been used to protect certain industries. Those tariffs will still be kept in place. But when we talk about now tariffs based on source country, those will have a base rate that will be added to any industry specific tariff. Tariff rate. I mentioned steel, aluminum, automobiles and automobile parts as tariffs that currently exist. But I want to draw attention to four sectors specifically that are right now temporarily exempted from tariffs, but which may see tariffs in the near future. Those four sectors are pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper and lumber. Although there's a temporary exemption right now, those sectors are highly likely to have tariffs imposed in the near future which may potentially exceed 25%. Remember, that's on top of the base tariffs that are imposed based on country of origin. All of that is to say, given that this 90 day pause is expiring on July 9th, you can expect July to be tariff month in the new cycle. You can also expect many changes to be announced, many deals to be made. You can expect a lot of movement and frequent updates in this domain in the upcoming month. And that leads to the question, what impact is all of that going to have on American businesses? In order to answer that question, we need to take a look at the current state of businesses in the US Starting with the jobs report. And I want to actually peel back behind the headlines because headlines can be a little misleading. So I want to unpack the headline numbers to really look at what's going on in the jobs report right now. Because because of the fourth of July, the jobs report came out one day early. Normally it's released on the first Friday of every month, but since the first Friday was fourth of July, it was released on Thursday. With that additional 24 hours to really unpack it, there's a lot in the jobs report, the June jobs report, which came out yesterday, that goes beyond the surface. There's a lot that doesn't initially meet the eye. We're going to take a break right now to hear from the sponsors who make the show possible. And when we come back, we're going to really unpack what's going on when it comes to business growth, jobs, unemployment, what's happening in our economy today. I've said this in previous episodes. If you want to understand the economy, don't look at the stock market. Look at the jobs report and look at the bond market. Those are the two indicators much, much more so than the stock market that provide a really good level of insight into what's happening in the economy today. So let's hear from our sponsors and then let's unpack the jobs report. Summertime is a great time for having friends over for entertaining, for hosting at your home. If you're having a backyard get together, Wayfair is your one stop shop. For outdoor entertaining. You can shop for patio tables, grills, dishw. If you're throwing a pool party, you've got lounge chairs, daybeds, umbrellas. If you're hosting a game night, they've got cornhole, croquet, string, lights. I use Wayfair to get indoor things for my apartment. Lots of shelving, shelving in the entryway, shelving in the bathrooms. I've got a daybed that's very multifunctional. But I got indoor items because I live in a Manhattan apartment, so I don't have any outdoor space. If you have outdoor space, you can create a space that's warm and welcoming. 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[Paula Pant]

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[Paula Pant]

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[Paula Pant]

Welcome back. Last month's jobs report was stronger than expected. The US added 147,000 new jobs in June and the unemployment rate stood at 4.1%, which is normal. Normal relative to the past few years. Historically at a, if you look at a 50 year view or 100 year view, historically very, very low. So our unemployment rate, which for years now has been at historic lows, continues to be. So this is actually better than expected. Economists had expected to see only 110,000 new jobs added and they had expected to see the unemployment rate at 4.3%. So the stock market rose yesterday after a better than expected jobs report came out. But that said, let's look beyond the headlines. Let's unpack this a little bit because a lot of that new job growth has been driven by government jobs, specifically state and local government job growth in the private sector, which was reported a couple days in advance by adp, which is a payroll processor. Private sector job growth was negative on Wednesday. ADP reported that overall private sector employment declined by 33,000 jobs in June as compared to the May numbers. The bulk of that came from small businesses. So that was driven by a loss of 47,000 jobs from employers that have fewer than 50 employees. That reflects a broader trend that we've seen throughout this year of things being particularly hard for small business. So far, in 2025, small companies, defined as companies with 50 or fewer employees, have added on average only 5,300 jobs per month. And that's nearly an order of magnitude less than last year's average, which was 40,000 new jobs per month. Private sector businesses generally, but particularly private sector small business, is really struggling. And the reason that the headline numbers look good in the jobs report is because state and local governments are hiring. That's a trend that we've seen in the jobs report for many months. We've also seen specifically in healthcare. Healthcare. In addition to small and local governments, healthcare has added a lot of. They've consistently been a leader in job growth, and that continues to be the case. Now, let me pause here and draw a distinction between the two types of reports that we're contrasting right now. Because the jobs report is put out by the Labor Department. That's the new report that gets released on the first Friday of every month. Adp, by contrast, is a payroll processor. So they don't see public sector jobs. They only see private sector jobs. And they always put out a report two days prior to the first Friday of the month. So the Wednesday prior to the first Friday is when they put out their monthly report. Which means people like myself, you know, people who like, avidly look for the first Friday jobs report. We always look at the ADP report as a sneak peek, as like a clue 48 hours in advance as to what we're going to see. But noting the differences between the ADP report, which is private sector only, versus the jobs report, which is the entire economy, there's a story there, right? Because there are some months when the ADP report and the jobs report mirror each other. And that's not what's happening right now. In fact, right now, these two reports are telling very different stories. The jobs report from the Labor Department is telling the story of growth. The jobs report is saying we added 147,000 new jobs. The ADP report is telling the opposite story. The ADP report is saying we lost 33,000 jobs. All right, I'm going to highlight that again. Jobs report is saying we gained. ADP report is saying we lost. That's the difference between looking at just the private sector in isolation versus looking at the private and public sectors combined. And what that means is that the private sector is struggling. This job loss that ADP reported on Wednesday, this is the first pullback since March of 2023. This is the worst it's been in over two years. And in the private sector, there are notable job losses in the category of professional and business services and notable job losses specifically in small businesses. And so this shows that businesses are holding back on hiring amid all of this economic uncertainty. And for the moment, job growth at the state and local government level is strong enough that it compensates for that in the aggregate. But given that so much of the job growth is government jobs, that shows that the job market is weaker than it looks. It's a relatively stagnant market. And even though unemployment is low, turnover is also low. People who have jobs tend to be keeping them. But people who want jobs are having a tougher time finding work. So recent high school and college grads, people who are back on the job hunt after an absence, people who have been fired or laid off, which is now an increasing number of small business employees are having a tougher time finding jobs. And that, beyond the headlines, is the nuance of what's happening within the jobs market. And so it's no wonder that consumer confidence continues to be low. According to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, which is one of the nation's leading consumer confidence trackers, we did see some minor gains in the month of June, but overall consumer sentiment is 18% lower than it was in December of last year. And overall consumer views are, quote, broadly consistent with an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation to come. Consumers continue to be concerned about the potential impact of tariffs, but at this time, they do not appear to be connecting developments in the Middle east with the economy, end quote. Inflation expectations that are held by consumers are lower than they used to be, but still high. So consumers last the previous month in May, expected that year ahead inflation would be 6.6%. As of June, that expectation fell to only 5%. The story that those numbers tell is that people a couple months ago used to be more pessimistic and now they're feeling better, but overall they're still feeling bad. And as compared to what people felt six months ago, in December, right around New Year's, people are generally feeling worse. The University of Michigan issued a special report on June 27 that compares current versus pre pandemic long run inflation expectations. The report shows that people's expectation of inflation right now is matching the mid-2022 peak. So the report says, quote, expectations were stable in the years leading into the pandemic, they worsened through mid-2022 and softened thereafter through October 2024. And then it says a few more things. And then it says, quote, june's median now matches the peak reading from mid 2022, but the three month moving average remains above mid 2022, end quote. So what that's saying is that people have been anxious about the economy and particularly about inflation since the pandemic. So for five years. And where we are now is at about the same place where we were three years ago in, in terms of our worries about inflation. That is to say that in the last three years, the average consumer's worries about inflation have not gotten any better. Now why does this matter? It's because people's expectations often have a hint of self fulfilling prophecy. If people expect that inflation is going to be bad, they might make decisions accordingly. And some of those decisions have the effect of triggering what's known as the wage price spiral, which then increases inflation. So for example, business owners might raise prices because they're anticipating inflation. Those higher prices lead people to demand more higher pay at work in order to be able to keep up with rising prices. Now you're in a wage price spiral. So sometimes the expectation of inflation can actually exacerbate that inflation. But of course it isn't a perfect one to one. And of course there is a disconnect between expectations and reality. So what is the reality of inflation right now? What are the actual numbers? Where are we to answer that? We'll look at another data set. The most recent inflation numbers that we have come from the month of May. June's numbers are not going to be available until mid July. In May, consumer prices rose 0.1%. This was true for both core inflation and headline inflation, meaning including food and fuel versus stripping away food and fuel, we got the same number in terms of month over month growth. The current annual inflation rate is 2.4%. Now that's higher than the Fed's target of 2%, but it's close. I mentioned that the CPI, the consumer price index, has two different readings. There's core and headline. There's basically with food and fuel and without food and fuel. There's also a third way of measuring inflation and that is something called the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index or the PCE index. This is done by the Department of Commerce. According to the PCE index, which is unrelated to the cpi, it's a totally different inflation gauge. According to that, prices are up year over year by 2.5%. What does this mean? It Means we get a reading of 2.4 through the CPI, we get a reading of 2.5 through the PCE. We know that we're close. We have multiple methodologies of tracking inflation and they're all saying ballpark around the same number. What's notable is that this is a huge drop from the rate of inflation that we were experiencing in mid-2022. In fact, the president of the Atlanta Fed, the Federal Reserve bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, made remarks yesterday, July 3rd at a conference in Frankfurt, Germany in which he said, quote, inflation has fallen substantially from peaks in mid-2022. More recently, the high monthly inflation reports in January and February were offset by softer readings over the three months ending in May on a 12 month basis. While core personal consumption expenditures PCE inflation is still hovering north of 2.5%. The near term evidence suggests we are arguably approaching the FOMC's 2% objective. Absent the uncertainty associated with the potential impact of tariffs on prices as well as the consequences of the current turmoil in the Middle East, I would be pretty comfortable with the inflation outlook. Data through May showed that tariffs had not substantially affected consumer prices to a significant degree. I believe sanguine inflation readings reflect firms strategies to delay substantive price increases until the price setters get more clarity on final tariff rates and their implications, end quote. So what he's saying is inflation currently is pretty close to where we want it to be, about half a percentage point away from where we want it to be. And so far tariffs haven't really affected that. And if they do, that'll probably happen after tariff rates are locked into place rather than now when tariff rates are volatile and changing quickly. This points to a few things. Number one, it means that there is a mismatch between consumer expectations and current inflation readings. Note that the rate of inflation peaked in the middle of 2022 and consumer expectations around inflation are still at mid 2022 levels even though the rate of inflation has dropped. So there's a disconnect between the worries that consumers have versus the rate of inflation across the lifespan of those worries. Stated another way, people are as worried about inflation now as they were in mid-2022, which was when inflation was at its peak, its peak in recent history. I should say 2022 had the highest rate of inflation since 1981. That was its peak in the last 40 years. And yet despite being significantly down from that peak, the worry level is still the same. Why is that? Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic in that same speech addressed this, stating uncertainty is coming from Sources other than just trade policy, among other things, U.S. fiscal, Immigration and regulatory policy are all changing or apt to change in the short term. And along with global geopolitical tensions, those changes could produce a range of macroeconomic impacts, end quote. So what he's saying is that it's not just tariffs. It's the fact that everything is up in the air. Taxes, immigration, federal employment, war in the Middle East. There's a lot that's in flux right now. All of it affects the economy. We don't know how it's going to play out, and we don't know how multiple combinations of different factors working together in tandem will have a combined effect that will shift the economic landscape. So there's a lot of uncertainty, not just around tariffs, which tend to dominate the conversation, but around many, many, many other areas as well. And that uncertainty is why consumers are worried. He goes on to say it's also why the Fed is taking a wait and see policy prescription, meaning they're going to hold interest rates steady until they see how this all plays out. That is a decision that has a lot of criticism. President Trump is repeatedly calling for the resignation of Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair. But Bostic states, quote, I believe a period characterized by such widespread uncertainty is no time for significant shifts in monetary policy. End quote. And let's zoom out for a moment. The decision that the Fed is making, whether you agree with it or disagree with it. Right. The wait and see approach that the Fed has decided to take mirrors what we're also seeing in portions of the job market as well. Remember earlier when we talked about how the labor market is stagnant? There aren't mass layoffs. There were some layoffs last month, 33,000. But there are not mass layoffs, nor is there mass hiring. In the private sector, especially, people have jobs. Unemployment is low, but people without jobs are finding it harder to get a job. New graduates, people who have been out of the labor market for a while. Remember we talked about earlier in this episode, there's not a lot of turnover happening right now. And so although we have high employment levels, we also have a stagnant job market. And what that means is that across the labor market, employers are taking a wait and see approach, and that mirrors what the Fed is doing. They're also taking a wait and see approach. So across both the job market and in the Fed, we're seeing the same tactics play out. Hold steady, don't make any big decisions, see what happens. And in a time of major uncertainty, when policies are changing rapidly, and circumstances are also changing rapidly. That's a reasonable approach for bosses, for Fed governors, and for us as investors. Hold steady, wait and see on the 4th of July 1st Friday, the 249th birthday of the United States. That is our current economic update. Thank you so much for being part of the Afford Anything community. If you got value or insight from today's episode, please share this with the people in your life. Share it with your friends, your family, with the people at the fourth of July barbecue, with the people at the swimming pool, with the people watching the fireworks. Share it with your favorite Fed chair. Share it with your least favorite Fed chair. Share it with your boss. Share it with your subordinates. Share it with colleagues. 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You can watch most of our material on YouTube YouTube.com affordanything. You can also talk to other members of our [e-mail] community. Everything I've mentioned is all free. It's all for you so that you can enjoy strong financial health. Thank you so much for being part of this wonderful experiment. This is the Afford Anything podcast. I'm Paula Pant. Happy 4th of July and I'll meet you in the next episode.