Is Africa’s trade relationship with the United States under threat?

Summary

Africa Daily – "Is Africa’s trade relationship with the United States under threat?"

Date: February 17, 2025
Host: Alan Kasuja, BBC World Service

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Overview

This episode explores the uncertain future of Africa’s trade relationship with the United States, focusing on the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and how changing US politics—particularly under President Donald Trump’s 2025 administration—could impact African economies. With examples from South Africa, Eswatini, and Uganda, host Alan Kasuja examines both the direct business implications and the broader diplomatic dynamics at play. Guests include South African businessman Hlahlad Dlamini, Eswatini economics lecturer Sanele Sibiya, and Ugandan coffee farmer Robert Kabushenga.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Background and Immediate Concerns ([00:48]-[03:15])

• AGOA Explained: AGOA, launched in 2000, allows qualifying Sub-Saharan African countries tariff-free access to the US market to foster economic growth.
• Recent Shifts: The threat of non-renewal under the Trump administration, in the context of trade disputes and shifting political alliances, casts uncertainty on the future of AGOA.
• Precedent: In 2023, President Biden removed Uganda, Central African Republic, Niger, and Gabon from AGOA due to non-compliance, notably after Uganda’s anti-homosexuality law.

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2. South Africa: A Major AGOA Beneficiary at Risk ([03:57]-[10:45])

Guest: Hlahlad Dlamini (Johannesburg; Maneli Pets)

• Business Impact:

  • The US is the largest market for Dlamini’s pet food business, once accounting for 80–85% of revenue (now 20–25% post-COVID).
  • South Africa’s proteins—ostrich and venison—have been key for entry into US and EU markets.

• Market Position:

  • "The US makes up 2/3 of the global pet industry, which is pretty crazy to just let that sink in."
    — Hlahlad Dlamini ([06:34])

• Political Risk:

  • South Africa’s stance on Israel at the ICJ and broader foreign policy could put its AGOA status in jeopardy.
  • Dlamini is cautiously optimistic: "I think there’s potentially a lot of noise and bluster around some of these tariffs... the practicality of doing it across the entire industry would be pretty hard... I’m hoping that the pets industry is not sitting within that basket." ([08:07])

• Contingency Plans:

  • Dlamini's business has backup strategies (local, regional, and Asian markets): "We do have a plan B and a plan C... COVID really turned the business on its head. People lose jobs... It has a knock-on impact." ([09:46])

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3. Eswatini: Missed Opportunities and Economic Dependence ([10:45]-[14:05])

Guest: Sanele Sibiya (University of Eswatini)

• Sectoral Impact:

  • "If you look at quite a chunk of the sugar that Eswatini exports, you know, quite a big chunk of it does go into the US market and Agoa actually facilitates that occurring." ([10:58])
  • The textile sector, in particular, hoped for AGOA-driven revival, but progress is slow.

• Underutilization:

  • Despite over a thousand export lines available, Eswatini utilizes only one or two under AGOA—mainly sugarcane.
    — "Right now it’s just the sugarcane line. One or two lines." ([12:00])

• Wider Context:

  • Many African countries lack the capacity or preparedness to fully exploit AGOA opportunities.

• If AGOA Ends:

  • Eswatini would feel strong negative effects, especially in sugar and newly invested sectors like beef. The government would likely seek renegotiation, as it did after a previous suspension. ([12:30], [13:45])

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4. Uganda: AGOA’s Limited Economic Impact and Strong Diplomatic Value ([14:10]-[19:14])

Guest: Robert Kabushenga (Coffee Farmer, Uganda)

• Trade Reality:

  • "The assumption is that because of Agoa, we experienced an explosion of trade and growth. No, we didn’t. There were really small volumes from cottage industries... We didn’t have the scale... We even tried so hard to set up a textile industry... and we completely failed." ([14:38])

• Who Benefited?

  • AGOA's true economic benefits are concentrated in countries with scale—Kenya, Lesotho, Ethiopia, South Africa.

• Diplomatic Leverage:

  • "Uganda positioned itself as a champion of AGOA... to be seen as an American ally... But you didn’t see steps taken to grow the volumes of trade between us." ([15:46])
  • For Uganda, AGOA provided more diplomatic leverage than genuine trade growth.

• Continental Impact:

  • Many African countries lack the capacity to use AGOA. Even with opportunity, utilization remains marginal, similar to Eswatini.
  • "So really AGOA wasn’t addressing those types of issues. Those issues are handled in a direct and bilateral way." ([17:38])

• US Priorities:

  • AGOA is less significant in US policymaking than assumed: "They [Trump administration] don’t care, Alan. This is the new reality that we’re going to have to face and it is a fantastic opportunity for us to redefine our position away from the US trying to tell us who we can or cannot be because they really don’t care about US foreign [policy]." ([19:14])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Hlahlad Dlamini ([06:34]):

  • "The US makes up 2/3 of the global pet industry, which is pretty crazy to just let that sink in. One country makes up 2/3 of the global pet market, so we'd be foolish to ignore such a large and fast growing industry."

• Sanele Sibiya ([10:58]):

  • "In the absence of Agoa, we would actually see some negative impacts in terms of economic activity."

• Robert Kabushenga ([14:38]):

  • "The assumption is that because of Agoa, we experienced an explosion of trade and growth. No, we didn’t."
  • "For us, we used it purely for diplomatic leverage politically in the US so that we could get closer to the US establishment and be seen as a US ally." ([15:46])
  • "[The Trump administration] don't care, Alan. This is the new reality... it is a fantastic opportunity for us to redefine our position away from the US trying to tell us who we can or cannot be." ([19:14])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:48] – AGOA overview and recent US political moves
• [03:57] – South Africa’s role and Hlahlad Dlamini’s business
• [10:45] – Eswatini’s narrow utilisation of AGOA, Sanele Sibiya’s insights
• [14:10] – Uganda’s AGOA experience, Robert Kabushenga’s analysis
• [19:14] – US administration’s attitude and Africa’s diplomatic choices

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Episode Summary

The episode provides a sharp analysis of the fragility in Africa–US trade relations, especially under shifting American politics. Although AGOA has opened tariff-free access to the US, its success has been uneven, with only a handful of countries reaping substantial economic gains. Lack of capacity and preparedness hampers most African countries' abilities to utilize these opportunities. South Africa stands to lose the most if relations with the US sour, particularly over contentious international issues. Meanwhile, for countries like Uganda, AGOA offered more diplomatic value than real economic change.

The guests clearly convey that Africa must reassess its dependency on AGOA and the US, prepare contingency plans, and push for wider capacity-building to truly benefit from global trade opportunities—regardless of political storms in Washington.

Transcript

[A]

This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the uk.

[B]

This is the story of the One as head of maintenance at a concert hall, he knows the show must always go on. That's why he works behind the scenes, ensuring every light is working, the H Vac is humming, and his facility shines with Grainger's supplies and solutions for every challenge he faces. Plus 24. 7 customer support his this venue never misses a beat. Call quickgranger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.

[C]

The last few days and weeks have been characterized by groundbreaking political and economic events around the world. We've seen trade agreements being rearranged, financial aid being cut off, and some countries being slapped with sanctions. And one man has been the center of it all American President Donald Trump. Since taking over the White House at the start of 2025, he he's hit nations like China and Canada with higher tariffs, negatively affecting the prices of their US bound products. In the process, Africa could also find itself involved in this trade warfare. Remember, several countries across the continent are doing business with the Americans. This is part of a deal called agoa, the acronym for for the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act. It was launched by the US government back in the year 2000 to give qualifying sub Saharan African countries access to US markets without paying import taxes. The aim was to promote economic growth in Africa, among other reasons. But there is no certainty that the Trump administration will renew the deal, especially considering many of the moves it made in recent times. So what lies ahead for trade relations between Africa and the United States? I'm Alan Kasuja and this is Africa Daily. I don't know if you recall. In 2023, former U.S. president Jo Biden kicked Uganda, Central African Republic, Niger and Gabon out of the AGOA deal. He said these nations failed to address America's concerns about their non compliance with the AGOA eligibility criteria. Uganda in particular was removed after it passed the anti homosexuality law. So I'll be talking to Ugandan coffee farmer Robert Kavushenga to find out if Biden's decision has been felt at all by the business community.

[D]

The assumption is that because of AGOA we experienced an explosion of trade and growth. No we didn't.

[C]

I'll also be looking at the picture in eSwatini. King Mswati's country was temporarily suspended from Agoa in 2015 and reinstated two years later. This was due to its failure to meet benchmarks on issues relating to democracy and human rights. So I'll be talking to economics lecturer Sanele Sibiia who is in Eswatini.

[E]

In the absence of Agoa, we would actually see some negative impacts in terms of economic activity.

[C]

But first, let me bring in South African businessman Hlahlad Dlamini, who is in Johannesburg. He runs Maneli Pets, which is a company that specializes in in manufacturing and exporting food for domesticated animals.

[A]

It is a very niche market, but a large one. Surprisingly, the industry is about $180 billion large, which is half the size of the South African economy. So it's a sizable and interesting industry, which is why South Africans and Africans need to be playing in that space.

[C]

Right. In a case like yours, do you focus on specific pets or do you just supply everything?

[A]

We focus primarily on dogs because those still are the largest domesticated pet category. But cats is also a sector that you serve. And we also focus on the proteins that we are specialized at or better at in South Africa, like ostrich and venison. Those are the proteins that gave us an N into the US market and the European market. But over time we've also broadened our basket to also add beef, chicken, pork and other proteins that South Africa has really good needs for.

[C]

Right, and the US is a big market for you guys?

[A]

It is. It's now about 20, 25% of our revenue, which is down from the 80 to 85% of our revenue that it was at pre covered. That is the largest market in the world. So we probably will go back to the US being the the lion's share of our revenue.

[C]

How did you start exporting to the.

[A]

US I started in this industry by just assessing back in the early 2000 and tens South Africa's potential for exports. I lived abroad for seven years and I always felt that there's shelf space for South African products beyond our wines. We export good wines, but beyond that we weren't exporting much. So when I came back to South Africa, I desperately wanted to export more products from this part of the world to the US and to Europe. And I scanned a variety of different sectors and in a up at pet food because that was one of the fastest growing market segments. And we have great proteins in South Africa from our beef, our lamb, venison, our ostrich. So those are the two things I wanted to dovetail. A fast growing global industry and unique products that you have in South Africa that we weren't exporting but could be exporting more of.

[C]

Right. And as far as markets are concerned, given your product, where does the US rank? Where does it lie?

[A]

Certainly, number one, just because of the size of the market and its growth. The US makes up 2 thirds of the global pet industry, which is pretty crazy to just let that sink in. One country makes up 2/3 of the global pet market, so we'd be foolish to ignore such a large and fast growing industry. But outside of the us, Asia has also grown a lot in its adoption and love for pets. In some instances, we actually have faster growth in some Asian markets than we've seen in the us. But those are the two areas that we really do want to put a lot of our medium term attention the the US and Asia.

[C]

Now, I'd like to take this conversation in the direction of politics. You probably know that US President Donald Trump hasn't been happy with South Africa for taking Israel to the International Court of justice in 2024. President Ramaphosa's nation accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's country of being responsible for a genocide in Gaza. Israel is of course America's close ally. With relations between South Africa and the US reaching an all time low, some expect Trump to remove Ramaphosa's country from Agoa. Should this happen, where would it leave entrepreneurs like Ntlakla?

[A]

In the previous administration there were a lot of things that were threatened that didn't really materialize into policy, one of them being the wall and many others. So I think there's potentially a lot of noise and bluster around some of these tariffs and quotas that might be implemented. But the practicality of doing it across the entire industry I think would be pretty hard for, for the new administration to, to do. Second, I think the pit industry, as large as it is, is not as politically important or strategic to the US's trade with the rest of the world. I'm not in the fuel industry, I'm not in AI or military. I think there are many other industries where the US would be looking at those industries first if they're trying to use sticks and carrots with the rest of the world. And I'm hoping that the pets industry is not sitting within that, that basket. So I think we might be shielded and I hope that plays out to be true. But even outside of my personal interest or commitment to the pets industry, I think it is worrying that the world is going back to a stance or a chapter of protectionism. It hurts everybody. It hurts the American consumer, it hurts international exporters, international trade, international relations. So I hope we are not going to see that happen too much over the next five years.

[C]

I know you said that you are hoping that you'll be shielded but surely you've got to have some sort of plan B. Should decisions be taken in Washington D.C. that not only affect you on a personal level, but also the people who rely on your business for sustenance?

[A]

Yes, absolutely. We do have a plan B and a plan C should the US shut down abruptly. And luckily we've had a dress rehearsal with COVID which really turned the business on its head. We had to completely upend the business in the space of two weeks. I hope that doesn't happen because the pain of that is quite severe. People lose jobs. You have to stop doing business with suppliers. It has a knock on impact with them and the ripple effects are really quite painful for a lot of real South Africans. I hope I don't have to exercise that plan B and plan C, but we do have mitigations in place should we have to stop doing business with the US abruptly. Those plans include doing more in the local markets, exporting more regionally within SADC and like I mentioned, putting more attention behind Asia and the the eu. Smaller markets, but still important markets.

[C]

Now let me turn my attention to Eswatini. Just how important is Agoa to this southern African country? For more on this, let me bring in economics lecturer Sanela Sibiya from the University of Eswatini.

[E]

If you look at quite a chunk of the sugar that Eswatini exports, you know, quite a big chunk of it does go into the US market and Agoa actually facilitates that occurring. So in the absence of Agoa, we would actually see some negative impacts in terms of economic activity. And we were hoping that with the resurgence of Agoa, we are going to see some life coming into the textile sector again. That's a sector that really requires a huge boost in the present moment. But we see there's still a bit of slow progress towards that. But in the overall schema of things, there's over a thousand lines that Eswatini could take advantage of to Agoa. And that in itself is what we do need as a new source of growth, new markets and, you know, just.

[C]

Driving growth of what Eswatini can take advantage of. As far as Agoa is concerned, how much of it does it use, do you think? It feels like it uses a very small amount. Just like many other African countries, we.

[E]

Use, I think one line. Right now it's just the sugarcane line. One or two lines.

[C]

That's incredible. And yet there are very many opportunities. It reminds me of many other African countries who have this opportunity but are just not prepared for it. It's like an opportunity has presented, but you don't have the range or the capacity to take advantage of it. So if Agoa was to go, one wonders how much Eswatini would be impacted. I know you said there'd be a negative impact, but would Eswatini feel it?

[E]

Yes, Alain, we would definitely feel it. Because, I mean, if we are talking of the sugar cane, that's the one of the main exports that Eswatini has, so we would actually feel it. And I mean also the hope, the ability and, you know, living knowing that there is a sector we can grow. We've already invested quite a lot. I mean, in terms of the bovine industry, in terms of coming up with those feedlots so that we can actually take advantage of such markets. And then we're also working on our phytosanitary requirements, setting up the infrastructure. So if Aboa bows, that infrastructure may not see that immediate utilization and immediate unlocking of markets.

[C]

Right. We know that South Africa is at risk of being kicked out because of its position on the Israel Hamas war. And also some people have said that its involvement, it breaks, doesn't appease the Trump administration, it doesn't amuse them much. So there are many reasons why the South Africans would be kicked out. And one wonders, if that happened to Eswatini, what would plan B be? What would the government in Eswatini do? King Mswati's government, what would it do as an alternative?

[E]

Would likely see the government coming in to try and negotiate and, you know, just trying to make sure that we stay in Agoa as that happened in the past. It's not the first time we would actually be losing it as a country. We've lost Agoa before, and the government only tried to work on the issues that needed to be worked on to get us back on Agoa.

[A]

Foreign.

[C]

You're listening to the BBC's Africa Daily podcast with me, Alan Kasudje. Today, I'd like to know what the future holds for trade relations between Africa and the United States. As I said earlier, my home country, Uganda, was recently moved from the Africa Growth and Opportunity act, also known as Agoa. But when it was still in place, did it make any difference? That's what I asked Ugandan coffee farmer Robert Kabushenga.

[D]

The assumption is that because of Agoa, we experienced an explosion of trade and growth. No, we didn't. There were really small volumes from cottage industries like crafts and some fruits, a few agricultural crops. Again, like the coffee guys. We didn't have the scale of countries like Ethiopia or Lesotho or the North African countries. We even tried so hard to set up a textile industry in Uganda to try and tap into that market, and we completely failed. So it collapsed. So in a sense, AGOA was not the trade benefit that people had hyped it to be for Uganda. No, it really benefited countries like Kenya, countries like Lesotho, South Africa, Ethiopia, who were able to do contract manufacturing. But the diplomatic element is absolutely important.

[C]

Explain that diplomatic element. Explain it. What do you mean?

[D]

In a sense, Uganda positioned itself as a champion of AGOA on the continent. It became the spokesperson for that policy, for the US policy in Africa, and so was able to be seen as an American ally in that respect. It leveraged that to position itself as pro America at a time when America needed to define its relationship with African countries beyond the war on terror. But you didn't see steps taken to grow the volumes of trade between us. I actually think probably the Rwandans benefited more than we did. So Rwanda, small countries like Rwanda, Lesotho. But for us, we used it purely for diplomatic leverage politically in the US so that we could get closer to the US establishment and be seen as a US ally.

[C]

I was speaking to someone from Eswatini who was telling me that they don't have capacity, just like Uganda didn't have capacity to take advantage of agoa, that of 1,000 possible offerings, they're only taking advantage of one, which was sugarcane or sugar for that matter. So I wonder what the picture is like for the rest of the continent. I know you've talked about Ethiopia and other places that might have had a bit more capacity, but do you think AGOA is useful even to countries like South Africa? Is it something that, you know, which South Africa, by the way, is on tenterhooks because Trump is president and because they took Israel to the ICJ and because it was opposed to the fight between Hamas and Israel and called it a genocide. So there are all these issues that are arising that have South Africans on tenterhook. So I wonder, if AGOA disappeared, how would it affect the continent? Which countries on the continent are benefiting and how would they be impacted?

[D]

The us, Its major trading partners in the world are known. Let's take a very small example when Rwanda stopped. The importance of second hand clothes. Yes, the second hand clothes lobby in the US made a lot of noise, but it eventually passed. So the question that we need to ask is which lobby in the us? I mean, when you look at the negotiations between Kenya and the US on trade matters, it had nothing to do with Agoa they were talking about volumes of peanut butter exports and things like that. So when it comes to the actual cracks of trade between the us, there are countries on the continent that have been traditional partners of the US in trade, you know, South Africa, Kenya. So really Agoa wasn't addressing those types of issues. Those issues are handled in a direct and bilateral way. So one of the interesting things about the relationship between South Africa and the US is it is trade based. So if you're going to look at icj, you have to look at how much chicken South Africa imports from the us. I don't know if you are aware of that. So you have to weigh where do you lose? Is Israel bothered by icj? Perhaps not. Or icc? Perhaps not. So do you want to damage the trading chicken between South Africa? All that issue? They'll find a way around it. I mean Ramaphosa is their mandel to Fascinating, fascinating.

[C]

Do you think the Trump administration understands Agoa and its significance?

[D]

They don't care, Alan. This is the new reality that we're going to have to face and it is a fantastic opportunity for us to redefine our position away from the US trying to tell us who we can or cannot be because they really don't care about US foreign.

[C]

Now let me take this opportunity to thank my guests, Anela Sibia in Eswatini Ahladlamini, who's based in South Africa, and Robert Kawashenga in Uganda. Africa Daily is a BBC World Service production and this episode was produced by Mpola Kaje. Our editors are Maelinda Zechiri and Simon Peaks of all. For more news analysis on matters relating to the African continent, I suggest you check out our sister podcast, Focus on Africa. I would also like to hear your thoughts on Agoa or any other episode you've listened to in the past. Africadailybc.co.uk and let's link up on X my handle Isuja and that's with two Js. Thank you for for listening.

[B]

This is the story of the one as head of maintenance at a concert hall, he knows the show must always go on. That's why he works behind the scenes, ensuring every light is working, the H Vac is humming and his facility shines with Granger's supplies and solutions for every challenge he faces. Plus 24. 7 customer support. His venue never misses a beat. Call quickgranger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.