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Is Zimbabwe's president Emmerson Mnangagwa set for a third term?
00:19:49
Zimbabweans will vote for a new president at a national election in 2028
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- [00:00]
Alan Kasuja
Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa has clarified concerns around his time as leader of that country.
- [00:07]
Shingai Nyoka
Some in the country have endorsed Mnangagwa to continue to lead Zimbabwe. ZANU PF member deputy has been in.
- [00:15]
Alan Kasuja
Power since the deposit. You know, I have been following what's happening in Zimbabwe, but no matter how many articles I read, no matter how many news bulletins I watch or listen to, I'm still scratching my head. I have no idea what to make of it all. It's drama, drama, and even more drama in Zimbabwe's ruling Zano PF party. Towards the end of 2024, Zanu PF held a conference where delegates passed a critical resolution. It called for President Emerson Mnangagwa to seek a third term as head of state in 2028. But for the resolution to succeed, the party will have to force through amendments to the constitution. Interestingly, though, President Mnangagwa recently told journalists in his country that he has no interest in extending his time of office.
- [01:22]
Dr. Gideon Chitanga
These terms are very definite and I'm so democratic, when they come to an end, I'll step aside and my party will elect my successor.
- [01:40]
Alan Kasuja
But will the president maintain this position when his term comes to an end in 2028? Well, not everyone in Zimbabwe is convinced.
- [01:51]
Dr. Gideon Chitanga
What we are having now is a situation where the president is trying to be ambiguous because he knows that the position that he is taking to seek to extend his power is not only illegitimate, but dangerous. And there are a lot of people within his party and outside his party who really do not support such a position.
- [02:12]
Alan Kasuja
This is political commentator Dr. Gideon Chitanga. Later on, he will be helping me unpack the political developments in Zimbabwe. So what does the future hold for the southern African country? Will President Emmerson Mnangagwa get a third term? Or will his deputy, Constantino Chiwenga, whose supporters are pushing back, take over? I'm Alan Kasuja and this is Africa Daily. Now the political drama in Zimbabwe comes as a group of war veterans are pushing for President Mnangagwa to immediately vacate his position. The men who are led by Blessed Geza recently told reporters that the head of state has failed to improve the country's economy. Among other things, he forgot the rules.
- [03:15]
Dr. Gideon Chitanga
Of his power on day one.
- [03:18]
Alan Kasuja
And instead of correcting the mistakes of.
- [03:21]
Dr. Gideon Chitanga
Former President Robert Mugabe, he instead went about to prove to all of us that Mugabe was actually a saint.
- [03:31]
Alan Kasuja
But how much support and influence do the war veterans have on within their party? Zanu piev, my BBC colleague Shingai Nyoka, who's in Zimbabwe's capital Harare, will unpack it for us. But first, I asked her to give me a bit of background to the story.
- [03:53]
Shingai Nyoka
Elections were held in 2023, and Emerson Mnangagwa won what many people thought was her second and final term in office and that in 2028 he'd be gone. But what we saw from around about last year at the government rallies and party rallies was this new slogan that was emerging, Mnangagwa, 2013. And so that's the idea that's really gained traction. And the background to that is that when he came to power in 2017, he launched a program called Vision 2030. It was a national development program that had all these wonderful goals that would have to be achieved by 2030. So what the party supporters are saying is that he will need to stay in office until 2030 to complete that work.
- [04:45]
Alan Kasuja
So who exactly is pushing this agenda, if you will?
- [04:48]
Shingai Nyoka
Well, in the beginning it was quite general and quite broad based. You'd hear all of these slogans at the various rallies. But now what has happened? Last year when the party held its annual conference, there was a resolution that was endorsed by all nine provinces, as well as the war veterans, the youth and the women, which essentially endorsed the idea of changing the constitution to allow Emerson Mlangagwa to remain in power until 2030. And so right now, as it stands, it's the official party position and it's gone so far as the justice minister last month had suggested, that when the time comes, they are going to table a bill before Parliament and that they're going to take this all of the way, they're going to amend the constitution, because as they're saying that this really, this resolution reflects the will of the Zimbabweans.
- [05:49]
Alan Kasuja
That's very interesting. And Mnangagwe himself, what has he said.
- [05:54]
Shingai Nyoka
At all of the rallies that he's been a part of and the slogans have rung out? He hasn't really put those down. But in a recent interview with some journalists from the state media, described himself as a democrat. He says that he's a constitutionalist, he's a lawyer, and that he will follow the terms of the constitution, which is that in 2028 he will step down and allow his party to elect a successor. And I think what's interesting is that the justice Minister has also said that this idea is not one that was instigated by the president, that this is the voice of the people, if you like, the will of the people. And so he's distancing himself from this. But I don't think a lot of people really believe or really trust that come 2028 that he will want to step down.
- [06:49]
Alan Kasuja
Vox populi, vox dei.
- [06:52]
Shingai Nyoka
Absolutely. And that was when he came into power in 2017. That was one of his key mantras, that the voice of the people is the voice of God.
- [07:02]
Alan Kasuja
Oh, interesting. And on the other hand, there are soldiers and army veterans, if you will, many of who worked with President Mnangagwa are pushing for him to resign. What's that and how influential are these people?
- [07:17]
Shingai Nyoka
Well, one of the leaders of this particular group, and just to clarify that they don't really represent at this stage the broader group of war veterans that fought in the liberation struggle up until 1980. This is a small clique that held a press conference, it was about half a dozen or so of them, in which they condemned President Mlangagwa's leadership. They say that he essentially was repeating the mistakes of his predecessor, Robert Mugabe. They accused him of corruption and they asked him to step down immediately or that they would take the process to parliament to ensure that he is removed that way. And so it's quite interesting though that even though this is a small group of war veterans and the larger group condemned these statements, that there was an arrest warrant that was issued for the leader of this particular group, Blessed Gheza, and he is currently on the run. So in as much as this is really insignificant according to government, the fact that they're paying attention really reflects how seriously they are taking this.
- [08:34]
Alan Kasuja
Now, I'd like us to place the bar constitution under the spotlight. Remember, if President Mnangagwa is to get a third term, Zanu PF will have to change the constitution. But what does the law say about this?
- [08:47]
Shingai Nyoka
Well, the constitution is quite clear and it limits the presidential terms to two maximum five year terms. And so Emerson Mlangagwa, according to this constitution, would not be eligible to stand in 2028. But they would have to amend the constitution, either scrap the terms or increase the term limit to three or four or whatever it is that they'd want to do. But that's also a lengthy process. It would require public hearings that are led by Parliament. It would require 2/3 parliamentary approval, which is not difficult to attain because NUPF does have that parliamentary majority. But the catch is, according to the constitution, is that it would not apply to the serving president. And so President Emerson Mlangagwa would not be able to benefit from it. But if the party decides that he needs to benefit from this, this would need to go to a referendum. And that referendum would need to be, it would need to happen within three months of the bill being tabled. But what's not clear is whether the government would want to extend the term limits to three or whether they just want to extend President Mlangagwa's term limit from 2028 to 2030. And so that's where a lot of the confusion has been. And there really hasn't been a lot of clarity on that.
- [10:10]
Alan Kasuja
So what's the dynamic now between President Emerson Mdangagwa, Vice President Constantino Chiwenga? Are they friends? Are they on each other's Christmas card lists? They've known each other for a while and they've worked together for a long time and collaborated in getting rid of Robert Mugabe.
- [10:29]
Shingai Nyoka
Yes, they did. They did. And there've been a lot of rumors ever since this 2030 push, rumors that the government has really been at pains to put down. So much so that a couple of days ago, the Secretary for Information, the government spokesperson, posted a picture of President Mlangagwa and Vice President Chiwenga sitting closely together and laughing and talking about the brotherhood that exists. But these two have been friends since the days of the war in the 1970s. And as you mentioned there, that friendship was really cemented during the 2017 coup where the then Vice President Emerson Mnangagwa was fired and had to skipped the country. It was the army that stepped in, surrounded Robert Mugabe's house and essentially helped force him out of office. And so, you know, I remember the back slapping at the inauguration ceremony between the two men. And so they've been friends for a long time. So it's, it's hard to gauge where their relationship is. But the government has tried to dispel rumors of tensions and it has said that there's certain cliques that are fanning division within the party because this one of the war veterans that has asked President Malangagwa to step down is a member of the Central Committee. And so the government really is at pains to try to play down the fact that there are any tensions.
- [11:58]
Alan Kasuja
The Central Committee being the politburo, like set up the governing committee of the party.
- [12:04]
Shingai Nyoka
Presumably, yes, it is. It's one of the central decision making bodies in the party.
- [12:09]
Alan Kasuja
All right, thank you so much, Ngai, for those details. Foreign, you're listening to the BBC's Africa Daily podcast with me, Alan Kasuji. And today I'm attempting to understand if Zimbabwe's President Emerson Mnangagwa will extend his term of office when it expires in 2028. Let me bring in Dr. Gideon Chitanga. He's a political activity analysts from the University of Johannesburg. Dr. Chitanga, who is himself Zimbabwean, started by analyzing the current state of Zanupf.
- [12:48]
Dr. Gideon Chitanga
Potentially Zanu PF is facing an existential threat emanating from a failed long internal transition or leadership succession if you want, but also the failure to democratize as a political party that is equally affecting the country. Because Xanopia is deeply embedded in the Zimbabwean state in its various forms that it is morphed into. So it's like a vampire kind of entity that is really driven by extremely self standards interest by the power brokers within its system.
- [13:32]
Alan Kasuja
Yet it continues to stand, it continues to run Zimbabwe. What does that tell you and me about Zimbabweans?
- [13:40]
Dr. Gideon Chitanga
It continues to run the country because it has captured the military and security organs of the state. It has captured what would be democratic institutions in the sense of the media, even social media is very much tightly monitored and managed.
- [14:01]
Alan Kasuja
Right. So if we come back to the party itself, to Zanu PF internally, who is in charge? Would you say Mnangagwa has complete command and control of the party and its structures?
- [14:15]
Dr. Gideon Chitanga
To understand that, you have to understand the succession dynamics in Zanopia before the fall of Ngab in 2013. Zimbabwe has elections to come out of an inclusive government that was facilitated by the Sadak during that period. Already Zanupia deep factional fighting. The succession war, I think had already escalated. Mugabe is at an advanced age and is struggling to manage after those elections. The other faction that was led and controlled by former General Mujuru, his wife, who was then a vice president, Joyce Mujuru, collapses partly because of the death of Mujuru and later the expulsion of his wife. So this leaves the faction that was very much aligned to Mnangagwa as the center of power. And eventually in 2017, they pushed Mugabe.
- [15:11]
Alan Kasuja
Out, following a fallout between Mugabe and Mnangagwa as well, who'd served as his vice president.
- [15:18]
Dr. Gideon Chitanga
Yes, it's a fallout in the sense that at the time that Mnangagwa comes in power, surely Mugabe was no longer comfortable with him. But Mugabe effectively enabled the rise of Mnangagwa by, I think, deliberately or otherwise helping to collapse the other faction. So when Mnangagwa comes into power, he is backed by the military, which has historically always played a very central key role in some politics. But he then in his leadership, alienates are much of the military. And it said that There were also a lot of other agreements and commitments that he made to the camp which he has failed to meet at this present moment. So this succession battle is now reimagined and represented in terms of its face by the current Vice president, General Chwenga, who some observers think he is now ready and impatient to succeed Mnangagwe.
- [16:15]
Alan Kasuja
Okay, can I just stop you there and say that Mnangagwe is on record as having said that he plans to step down at the end of his term. So where are you getting all this stuff about him trying to run for another term?
- [16:28]
Dr. Gideon Chitanga
Zanupia is a conference resolution which speaks to extending the term of the President to 2030. In Zanu PF, it is always the party that guides as much as they usually claim that it is the gun that guides. In Zanupia culture, when a party takes a position, everyone is expected to follow through that position. What we are having now is a situation where the president is trying to be ambiguous because he knows that the position that he is taking to seek to extend his power is not only illegitimate, but dangerous. And there are a lot of people within his party and outside his party who really do not support such a position. This discussion of extending his term of office and so on, he is stretching it because where the country is Zimbabwe is today. It's a shock by any standard.
- [17:24]
Alan Kasuja
So based on what you're saying, Zanu PF is full of internal contradictions and internal problems. But when you say that a party's position is obeyed, you are also pointing to a cadre of party members who abide by the ideology and the leadership of their party.
- [17:44]
Dr. Gideon Chitanga
It's one thing to abide by the ideology of the party. What we are talking about now are not ideological positions. In zanopia, they say ED 2030, meaning that the president still has work to do to realize the goals of the 2030 Agenda.
- [18:02]
Alan Kasuja
So what's your understanding of that? Do you understand it to be an extension of his term from 2028 to 2030?
- [18:10]
Dr. Gideon Chitanga
I understand it to mean that Mnangagwa is seeking to manipulate not only the constitution, but to recreate a kind of a discourse that confuses what is constitutionally clear within the Zimbabwean constitution and constitutionally clear within the Zanobi of constitution. The fact that his term of office runs to 2028. First, second, the people who are popularizing this agenda. And by the way, this is not only like a social media speculation, this is people who go to rallies and party and government events with the president and in his presence will utter a slogan, the 2030 ed slogan in his presence.
- [19:03]
Alan Kasuja
And this is where I leave it for today. Let me take this moment to thank my guests, Shinga Inyoka and Dr. Gideon Chitanga. Africa Deal is a BBC World Service production and this episode was produced by Paul Akaje. Our editors, Achakucha Nyaharawa and Simon Peeks. If you would like to share some thoughts on what we think of this and other episodes, please let us know. Africadailybc.co.uk or in the alternative, just find me an X where my handle isuja and that's with two Js. Thank you for listening.