Africa Daily – Is Zimbabwe's President Emmerson Mnangagwa Set for a Third Term?

Podcast: Africa Daily (BBC World Service)
Host: Alan Kasuja
Guests: Shingai Nyoka (Harare Correspondent), Dr. Gideon Chitanga (Political Analyst, University of Johannesburg)
Date: 27 February 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of Africa Daily explores mounting political drama in Zimbabwe, focusing on whether President Emmerson Mnangagwa will pursue an unprecedented third term in office after 2028. Although Mnangagwa has publicly stated he will step down according to the constitution, a conference resolution from the ruling ZANU PF party suggests internal momentum to push constitutional amendments that would allow him to extend his presidency to 2030—supposedly to complete national development goals. Experts and correspondents weigh in on the divided nature of the ruling party, the influence of war veterans, and the complex relationship between Mnangagwa and his presumed successor, Vice President Constantino Chiwenga.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The ZANU PF Third Term Push

• Party Resolution: At the end of 2024, ZANU PF delegates passed a critical resolution calling for Mnangagwa to seek a third term in 2028. This would require constitutional amendments.
• The Slogan: The “Mnangagwa 2030” slogan has gained momentum since late 2023, tying the president’s tenure to completing his “Vision 2030” development plan.
  “So what the party supporters are saying is that he will need to stay in office until 2030 to complete that work.” – Shingai Nyoka [04:27]
• Official Endorsement: All nine provinces, war veterans, youth, and women’s wings of the party endorsed this change. The Justice Minister suggested a parliamentary bill is forthcoming.
  “... they are going to table a bill before Parliament ... they’re going to amend the constitution, because as they’re saying that this ... reflects the will of the Zimbabweans.” – Shingai Nyoka [05:26]

2. The President’s Public Stance and Party Ambiguity

• President’s Public Position: Mnangagwa describes himself as democratic and constitutionalist, pledging to step down after his second term ends in 2028:
  “These terms are very definite and I’m so democratic, when they come to an end, I’ll step aside and my party will elect my successor.” – President Mnangagwa (via Dr. Chitanga) [01:21]
• Skepticism: Despite public pronouncements, many in Zimbabwe—including party members—doubt Mnangagwa’s sincerity about stepping down.
  “He hasn’t really put those [slogans] down. ... he will follow the terms of the constitution ... but I don’t think a lot of people really believe or really trust that come 2028 that he will want to step down.” – Shingai Nyoka [05:53]
• Political Analyst’s View: Dr. Chitanga suggests Mnangagwa is being ambiguous on purpose, knowing the illegitimacy and dangers of extending his tenure:
  “What we are having now is a situation where the president is trying to be ambiguous because he knows... the position ... to seek to extend his power is not only illegitimate, but dangerous.” – Dr. Chitanga [01:50]

3. The Role and Impact of War Veterans

• Dissenting Voices: A prominent group of war veterans, led by Blessed Geza, called for Mnangagwa’s immediate resignation, citing economic failure and corruption. Although representing a minority, the response from authorities indicated anxiety over any sign of unrest. “This is a small clique ... they condemned President Mnangagwa’s leadership. ...they accused him of corruption and asked him to step down immediately or ... take the process to parliament to ensure ... removal.” – Shingai Nyoka [07:27]
• State Reaction: The leader of this dissenting group is now reportedly on the run after an arrest warrant was issued, showcasing the government’s sensitivity. “... that there was an arrest warrant ... for the leader ... Blessed Gheza, and he is currently on the run.” – Shingai Nyoka [08:21]

4. Constitutional Hurdles

• Current Term Limits: Section limits presidents to two five-year terms.
• Changing the Law: Amending term limits would require public parliamentary hearings, two-thirds majority (which ZANU PF currently holds), and, crucially, a referendum to benefit a sitting president. “The catch is ... it would not apply to the serving president. ... if the party decides ... he needs to benefit, this ... needs to go to a referendum.” – Shingai Nyoka [09:12]
• Key Point: There’s confusion over whether the party seeks to extend term limits for all presidents or specifically to extend Mnangagwa’s term.

5. Power Dynamics: Mnangagwa vs. Chiwenga

• Historical Ties: Mnangagwa and Chiwenga have been close since the 1970s liberation war, further bonding during the 2017 coup against Robert Mugabe.
• Rumors of Tension: Despite government attempts to show unity (e.g., circulating cozy photos), speculation persists about rivalry, particularly as Chiwenga’s supporters are seen as pushing back against Mnangagwa’s continued rule. “They’ve been friends for a long time. ... the government has tried to dispel rumors of tensions ... but ... there are certain cliques ... fanning division within the party.” – Shingai Nyoka [10:37]

6. The State of ZANU PF

• Centralization and Crisis: The party is facing an “existential threat” due to failure to democratize and issues with leadership succession. “Potentially ZANU PF is facing an existential threat ... a failed long internal transition ... failure to democratize as a political party, that is equally affecting the country.” – Dr. Chitanga [12:48]
• Military's Role: ZANU PF maintains dominance by controlling the military, media, and other state institutions. “It continues to run the country because it has captured the military and security organs of the state. ... media ... is very much tightly monitored and managed.” – Dr. Chitanga [13:39]

7. Factionalism and Succession Battles

• Mugabe Era Fallout: Following Mugabe’s removal, remaining party factions consolidated around Mnangagwa, thanks to military backing. However, his subsequent alienation of military elites has reignited succession struggles with Chiwenga now the presumed rival. “Mnangagwa comes into power, he is backed by the military ... but he then in his leadership, alienates much of the military ... so this succession battle is now reimagined ... by the current Vice President, General Chiwenga.” – Dr. Chitanga [15:17]

8. The Nature of Obedience in ZANU PF

• Ideology vs. Opportunism: While party culture insists members must follow the party line, Dr. Chitanga stresses that the “ED 2030” agenda is not ideological but personalistic. “It’s one thing to abide by the ideology of the party. What we are talking about now are not ideological positions ... the president still has work to do to realize the goals of the 2030 Agenda.” – Dr. Chitanga [17:44]

9. Political Confusion and Uncertainty

• Manipulating the Law: The push for “ED 2030” blurs constitutional clarity and relies on rallying slogans in Mnangagwa’s presence, maintaining confusion as a political tactic. “I understand it to mean that Mnangagwa is seeking to manipulate not only the constitution, but to recreate a kind of... discourse that confuses what is constitutionally clear within the Zimbabwean constitution.” – Dr. Chitanga [18:10]

Memorable Quotes & Notable Moments

• On party vs. constitutional power:
  “In ZANU PF, it is always the party that guides as much as they usually claim that it is the gun that guides.” – Dr. Chitanga [16:27]
• Mnangagwa’s public message:
  “I’m so democratic, when [my terms] come to an end, I’ll step aside and my party will elect my successor.” – Emmerson Mnangagwa (quoted) [01:21]
• On skepticism around Mnangagwa’s intentions:
  “But I don’t think a lot of people really believe or really trust that come 2028 that he will want to step down.” – Shingai Nyoka [06:26]
• Summary by Dr. Chitanga on ZANU PF’s internal crisis:
  “Potentially ZANU PF is facing an existential threat emanating from a failed long internal transition or leadership succession if you want, but also the failure to democratize as a political party that is equally affecting the country.” [12:48]

Timeline of Important Segments

• 00:14–01:21: Introduction to the third term debate and Mnangagwa’s public answer
• 03:31–04:44: Shingai Nyoka provides background on the “Mnangagwa 2030” narrative
• 05:48–06:48: Discussion of Mnangagwa’s distancing from the third-term push
• 07:16–08:34: War veterans’ revolt and the government’s reaction
• 08:47–10:09: Detailed explanation of the constitutional process (term limits, amendments, referendums)
• 10:09–11:58: Analysis of relationship between Mnangagwa and Vice President Chiwenga
• 12:48–14:01: Dr. Chitanga on ZANU PF’s dominance and control of state organs
• 15:11–16:27: Succession battles, military’s continued influence, Chiwenga’s role
• 16:27–19:03: Dr. Chitanga on party obedience, the ambiguity of Mnangagwa’s position, and the manipulation of party and constitutional rules

Summary

This episode expertly dissects the heated debate around President Mnangagwa’s potential bid for a third term amid mounting party and public skepticism. Despite official claims of adherence to constitutional limits, ZANU PF’s maneuverings—coupled with internal party factionalism, war veterans’ dissent, and tactical ambiguity from top leadership—create uncertainty about Zimbabwe’s democratic direction. The relationship between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga, unresolved succession battles, and the party’s control over state mechanisms all point to a deeply unsettled political terrain as the country approaches 2028.