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We catch up on a wild week where commodities react to shifting weather, tight livestock supplies, and nonstop geopolitical noise. We also lay out a surprisingly bullish cotton roadmap, then zoom out to the policy and rate decisions that shape what farmers and traders do next.
• Weekly moves across grains, livestock, and softs are viewed through fundamentals
• Bullish cotton balance sheet driven by polyester disruption, tighter stocks, and policy support
• JBS plant closure as a signal of a historic cattle shortage and lower slaughter capacity
• Iran uncertainty and why oil markets struggle to trust timelines and headlines
• New World screwworm case count, monitoring challenges, and the USDA response
• 45Z GREET model update and what it could mean for corn, soybean oil, and biofuel investment
• US ag trade deficit improving on lower imports, exports still the challenge
• FOMC setup and why higher rates raise the cost of storing grain
• USMCA leverage talk, what the US, Canada, and Mexico each want
• Midterm election forecast and how control of Congress could shake out
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