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We track a week where policy turned into price: a Supreme Court ruling upended a tariff path, the White House jumped to 15 percent under a different statute, and USDA moved money fast to shore up farm cash flow. We map the margin math, the demand levers that matter, and the geopolitical risks that could swing soy, corn, and livestock into spring.

• Supreme Court curbs tariff approach and triggers policy pivot
• Section 122 tariffs to 15 percent with key ag exemptions
• Accelerated Section 301 probes raise retaliation risk
• Clarifying farmer bridge aid funding and access routes
• Sugar sector aid to stabilize beet and cane producers
• USDA Outlook: prices stabilize below break‑even
• Acreage shifts toward soybeans on price ratio
• Livestock strength as cattle supplies stay tight
• E15 path, RFS timelines, and demand upside
• China trip watch: ethanol tariff, soybean buys, leverage
• John Deere signals cycle bottom in equipment
• Farm Bill 2.0 markup delayed by weather
• Section 32 food buys boost specialty crops demand
• Wheat rally, wildfire relief, and market positioning

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