Billy Walters (3:36)

I'm a gambler, but not just any gambler. My wager has ran the spectrum, pitching pennies in dingy racetrack bathrooms, hustling pool and backroad shanties, betting thousands of dollars on a single putt on golf courses, and losing millions in Las Vegas casinos. And that doesn't include betting billions of dollars collectively on every American sport.

Michael Lewis (4:04)

Billy Walters has a lot to say about the life he's lived and the state of legalized sports betting in the US Today. He knows where the bodies are buried and only narrowly escaped being buried there himself. So I wanted to devote a whole episode to our conversation. I know you'll enjoy it. When did you first realize I liked to gamble?

Billy Walters (4:27)

From the second I was introduced to the. I don't know. I was around five years old, probably. My grandmother started leaving me my uncle's pool room when I was four. I know for sure by the time I was six, I was playing penny nine ball. But the first time I did any type of gambling, it was like a child being introduced to sugar. I really enjoyed it.

Michael Lewis (4:54)

Why do you think you enjoyed it? You wouldn't have put it into words when you're six years old, but when you look back on it, what do you think you liked about it?

Billy Walters (5:02)

I think even at that age, although I never consciously thought about it, I got a rush out of it. I think there was a rush. I think there was, you know, I mean, who doesn't like to win? From as far back as I can remember, I've been competitive. But the gambling part, I think the main reason is the rush from it. Mm. Yeah.

Michael Lewis (5:28)

You had that rush right away.

Billy Walters (5:29)

Oh, for sure.

Michael Lewis (5:30)

I kind of want to fast forward to this transition in your career where you go from being what you describe as a degenerate gambler to an edge player.

Billy Walters (5:41)

When I lived in a small town in Kentucky, Muffordville I became a pretty good pool player. And then when I got out of high school, I won the automobile business and I started making more money than I'd ever imagined. And as a result, I had access to more money and started betting sports and started playing poker. And clearly I had no reason to have any type of an edge. I mean, I'm using a goal sheet and picking all games out of that. I mean, I wasn't better on my favorite teams. I wasn't dumb enough to do that, but I was probably even dumber. I had a goal sheet and thought I knew something about it and, and that's how I initially started betting sports and then golf. From day one, though, I was never really a sucker when it came to matching up playing golf because it was a lot like pool. So I didn't take any of the worst of it playing golf ever.

Michael Lewis (6:37)

Where did you take the worst of it?

Billy Walters (6:39)

I took the worst of it betting sports. And this is the reason I have concerns about, you know, the potential addiction and the way things are, are going with legalized sports betting. There's a tremendous amount of addiction out there that exists now. I was one of those people. That's the reason I can talk about this. The only person that doesn't have a place at the table right now is a player. You know, you've got regulators, you've got operators, and the regulators don't know anything about it. They've been told what to do by basically the lobbyists who were either ex regulators or ex politicians who the operators have hired. So essentially the operators have created an environment where it's, you know, it's very, very conducive to their business and to them, but it's not in the long term, best interest of legalized sports betting. You know, when I got introduced to sports betting and I had money and, you know, it's the same old story. You know, you get loser and you tell yourself this story. You know, as soon as I get even, I'm going to quit. Well, two things either happen. You never get even, or you do get even. You think, well, I got this figured out. Now I'm going to beat them. And you still don't quit. And, you know, you definitely have a mathematical disadvantage if you're just picking ballgames with no information whatsoever. But as I got access to more money, I got invited to go to Las Vegas. And clearly that was an eye opener. I mean, it's like, you know, a wild dog on a meathouse. I mean, I'm in Louisville, Kentucky, the Games were always too small. Nobody would ever play for a lot of money. But when I got to Las Vegas, I was different. I mean, of course, I'm playing games I had a mathematical advantage in, but the limits were. They were much higher. So, man, that's Las Vegas. I love that. But my problem during that period of time was drinking. When I didn't drink, I was a really tough guy to beat out of his money. You know, whether it was poker, whether it was golf. As a matter of fact, I was a winning player. But the problem was the drinking. And I didn't think I had a problem with it because I didn't really drink that often. You know, I would drink, and when I did drink, I would get hammered. And the dumbest decisions I ever made, I mean, I made those while I was drinking. And. But once that night was over, I didn't drink again for, like, three weeks, months sometimes. So I never dreamed I really had a problem with drinking until after a number of years. I kept looking back, and every problem that I ever created for myself, whether it be financial or personal, they all came from drinking.

Michael Lewis (9:22)

When do you cease to be a degenerate gambler? And when do you become something else?

Billy Walters (9:27)

When I moved to Las Vegas, my money management skills were below average. I had a difficult time going to bed. Loser. Regardless of whether I had the best of it or not. But anyway, once Chip became my partner, he probably was as good a manager with managing money as any gambler I ever met in my life. And I think there were times probably that he was a little too conservative. But overall, at the end of the day, looking back at it, I think he made the best decisions of anyone I've seen. And by being his partner, you know, after a period of time, I saw that what he was doing was right.

Michael Lewis (10:13)

What kind of things was he doing that you weren't doing?

Billy Walters (10:16)

Well, as an example, I mean, if we had eight games to bet on a Sunday, if we were to go one in seven and we had one play left, we didn't bet any more or any less on that game than what we were supposed to bet. Or if we had no plays left, we went to bed. What I was doing is, if we'd gone one and seven, there was one game left. Whether I had a bet or not, I was going to bet on it. And then the other thing I would do, if it was a small, I would end up playing it as a large or something such as that. So those are the main things that he. He was doing that I wasn't doing?

Michael Lewis (10:52)

He was rule based?

Billy Walters (10:53)

Very much so, yes, yes, yes.

Michael Lewis (10:55)

And you weren't?

Billy Walters (10:56)

Not in the least, no. But anyway, so after a very short period of time, I saw he was right. And then I became ruled based on everything that I did until I drank. And then, you know, as an example, I accumulated a million dollars. And I went out one night, began drinking, got drunk, lost the entire million dollars plus another $200,000. I did that again, only the next time was with $2 million. And then finally there was an incident that came up that made me decide that I was never going to drink again.

Michael Lewis (11:34)

We're going to take a quick break, then hear all about that incident.

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Malcolm Gladwell (12:54)

This is Malcolm Gladwell from Revisionist History. So we are, we're sitting in what.

Apple Advertiser (13:01)

We'Re sitting in a 1988 BMW 325is.

Malcolm Gladwell (13:05)

And describe the way in which it's been modified.

Apple Advertiser (13:08)

Oh, it has no interior. That's where it begins.

Malcolm Gladwell (13:13)

Not even a steering wheel as far.

Billy Walters (13:14)

As I can tell. Yeah.

Apple Advertiser (13:15)

Right now there's no steering wheel, although I can fix that in a second.

Malcolm Gladwell (13:19)

And what's the appeal of a late 80s BMW 325?

Apple Advertiser (13:23)

Well, it's almost like the perfection of a recipe that BMW began in the 60s, which is to take a really beautifully made inline six engine, rear wheel drive and just like an incredibly balanced and fun to drive car.

Malcolm Gladwell (13:38)

Yeah, yeah.

Apple Advertiser (13:40)

Let me give a little, little sneak peek. I need to connect the battery. The battery is disconnected.

Malcolm Gladwell (13:50)

We do it. The battery is the backup.

Apple Advertiser (13:51)

The battery is actually under the rear seat.

Malcolm Gladwell (13:53)

Oh, I see. Just. That's it. That's so it has an absolutely perfect balance between front and rear.

Billy Walters (13:58)

Rear.

Malcolm Gladwell (13:58)

Rear way.

Apple Advertiser (13:59)

Exactly.

Billy Walters (14:00)

Yeah, yeah.

Malcolm Gladwell (14:00)

So yes. Turn it on.

Apple Advertiser (14:02)

Let's hear it.

Malcolm Gladwell (14:04)

Oh yes.

Apple Advertiser (14:12)

And this is you.

Malcolm Gladwell (14:13)

This is your first BMW.

Apple Advertiser (14:15)

My second.

Malcolm Gladwell (14:16)

Oh, no, Lucas, you can't say that. What was your second? What was your first?

Apple Advertiser (14:20)

It was in 1989. 535i.

Malcolm Gladwell (14:23)

Oh yes, this is. But you own that with a bunch of other people.

Apple Advertiser (14:27)

Yeah, yeah. So this is my first. My true, my first, you know, sole BMW. Solely owned solely on BMW.

Malcolm Gladwell (14:34)

Okay, wonderful. Whether it's a vintage 3 Series or the all new 20253 Series, you'll never forget your first BMW. The new 3 Series combines mind blowing driving dynamics with modern style, offering a striking sports sedan that thrills on every ride. With innovative technology, intelligent driver assistance systems and bold design inside and out, the three series makes every journey unforgettable. Learn more at BMW USA.com Congratulations to CBS Sports and Sony Electronics for their first place wins for innovation in industry at this year's unconventional awards by T Mobile for business. In a collaboration that was clearly built on breaking new ground, CBS and Sony created a first of its kind broadcast for the PGA Championship. Using a custom built T Mobile private 5G network to power the live production, they deployed a 5G wireless camera system throughout the event. The network's speed combined with Sony's innovative ultra low latency video codec allowed for seamless, high quality footage without disruption. With that innovative approach, CBS gave broadcasters the tools they need to do what they do best. Take their coverage to entirely new places. These innovations will shape the way live sports are covered moving forward as and for that, T Mobile congratulates Sony and CBS for their unconventional thinking.

Michael Lewis (16:19)

I'm back with Billy Walters talking about the sensational turn his gambling life took back in 1987 after he quit drinking.

Billy Walters (16:29)

I had a good friend, his name was Freddy Farris. His nickname was Sarge. He was a poker player in Las Vegas, very successful poker player and he had been diagnosed with a terminal brain tumor and lung cancer. And I was a smoker at the time. And I went out that night with another friend. I was really depressed, started drinking. I went to the horseshoe, started gambling and had an incident with one of the owners, Ted Benion, and really made a fool of myself. I got up the next day and I felt so bad about, you know, the incident. So I called up check Benion, his older brother apologized. He accepted my apology and I decided that day that, look, I'm not going to make a fool of myself anymore. This will be the last call I'll have to make and make this apology. So I quit drinking and I quit smoking the same day. I knew at that point in time that smoking was harmful. I was addicted like everyone else was. But when Sarge, when he was diagnosed, that was the final deciding factor for me.

Michael Lewis (17:47)

So you are probably a rare person who went to Vegas and shed himself of vices.

Billy Walters (17:54)

True, very rare. Because at the time I was also a professional poker player along with betting sports. And I had just won the super bowl of poker that year, I think it was in 86. And when I decided to quit smoking, I decided to quit playing poker too, because the courtrooms at that time were full of smoke. So I quit playing poker and basically quit playing high stakes golf. And I really focused on nothing but sports betting. I was doing sports 365 days a year. Baseball, basketball, golf, hockey, tennis.

Michael Lewis (18:32)

Was the sports at that point consistently profitable?

Billy Walters (18:36)

Yeah, very much so. What happened with me in the sports is Michael Kent was the first guy who had written a software program to handicap sports with. Up until that point, everyone was doing sports with a pencil, piece of paper and, and Michael really revolutionized the way that handicapping was done. He was a mathematician, but he also loved sports. But I realized after we became associated within a couple years that he eventually was going to lose his entire competitive advantage if he couldn't continue to find things that, that others didn't recognize. So I started recruiting other people with similar skill sets. And I also started recruiting people who knew the qualitative side of the sports business very well. And then of course, I've been doing it for some time and have become pretty good at, been able to manage a market of it. So I was essentially taking a consensus of what these people were doing and then factoring in both their strengths and weaknesses and then factoring in, you know, gambler side of the thing that they didn't understand. And that's what I was doing betting.

Michael Lewis (20:06)

Sports, is that the computer group, the.

Billy Walters (20:09)

Computer group was Michael Kent.

Michael Lewis (20:11)

What's the first thing you see where he has predictive power that you can put to use?

Billy Walters (20:19)

Before I came to Las Vegas and Kentucky, I was betting sports and I was booking sports and I was handicapping sports myself. I didn't do anything at all about computers. I did everything with pencil and paper. I had power ratings and of course I had player values. I had all those things. But I'm betting sports and I'm booking and I'm shading my numbers based upon my opinion. And then there was a guy That I knew that was betting me from Pittsburgh and the guy was consistently winning. I saw after about three weeks I said, this guy's a sharp guy. The money was coming from Kent, the so called computer group. And I'd take their bets, I would adjust my numbers accordingly and then I would get rid of their bets and go with it. And then as the more successful they became, they needed more market and they only had market in New York and in Las Vegas. I basically had the rest of the country. And so they approached me about giving me the order instead of vetting me. And I would move the order and share the order with them. And I agreed to do that.

Michael Lewis (21:30)

This is really interesting to me because it's the birth of something new in gambling.

Billy Walters (21:34)

It's like the sand wedge in golf. It is, it really was. And there's no question about it, it was like the sand wedge in golf. You know, when you really think about sports, how many things have happened in regards to sports as far as handicapping sports are concerned that truly make a difference. But as you noted earlier and very correctly so, you know, it's computer and software are worth nothing. The information is the only thing that's inside of that software that has any value. And you know, when I wrote the book that I wrote, I put everything in the world in there that I know about handicapping sports. Also put everything I knew in there about basic betting strategy, which frankly between you and I, I think that's more important.

Michael Lewis (22:27)

Give me an example of a betting strategy that like doesn't naturally occur to people when they enter a market.

Billy Walters (22:33)

Well, I'm going to explain to you what probably 90 plus percent of these new bettors are doing. They have one account, someone paid them a bonus, they have one account, at the very most, they have two. You know, they have no idea as far as strategies concerned in regards to which way the line is going to move or isn't going to move. And they probably really don't understand the value of certain numbers. Well, if a game's six and a half and you're looking to take seven, why it's so important to wait and try to get seven instead of taking six and a half. Most of them don't have any money management system at all. So the basic bidding strategy I put in there was real simple. Get as many accounts as you can that are illegal and you feel like you get paid. It's just like any type shopping. I mean if you decide you want to buy a pair of shoes, a brand name pair of shoes, you can Go up on the Internet and there's probably a hundred places you shop for different sizes, colors and prices. With sports betting, basically, they've created a monopoly in the United States. You got a handful of companies that control the entire thing. So what they've done as a result is situation I've described with the average new batter, they've got one account, maybe two at the most. Okay. If there's better numbers out there, they're completely oblivious to that. They have no clue about how the money line compares to the point spread. The other thing is a betting strategy, the importance of numbers. You know, the value of three, the number of. The value of seven, six, ten. Okay. Some numbers are a lot more important than other numbers are. If you don't understand that when it comes to betting strategy, you know, you could be making some huge mistakes. A lot of times you're better off betting on a money line than you are the point spread because, you know, they offer money lines out there. Okay, let's say the line on a game I use three as an example is three. Well, if you're betting on the underdog, you may be able to take a money line price that's equivalent to taking three and a quarter or three and a third or even three and a half sometimes. But if you don't know how to compare those two, the true value of those, how would you know?

Michael Lewis (25:02)

Right?

Billy Walters (25:02)

Because there's no legitimate place that you can go to that's accurate. If you're not a handicapper, you're not anything.

Michael Lewis (25:11)

When you first meet Michael Kent, sure. What you're bringing to the table is both access to markets and betting strategy.

Billy Walters (25:19)

Access to market and betting strategy is correct because when it became the betting strategy, he was a novice himself. And, you know, the things that I could do was, you know, was not only the betting strategy, but I could bet, you know, large, much larger amounts of money than he could ever bet.

Michael Lewis (25:41)

But he had a superior ability to predict what was going to happen in the games.

Billy Walters (25:44)

No question at the time, at the time I met him and for a period of, I would say four years, he was an illegally zone.

Michael Lewis (25:57)

You know, in your book, where it gets to me especially interesting in the insights that you all generate is when you're telling me things about the sport that I didn't appreciate, that, for example, Josh Allen, Buffalo Bill's quarterback, is better in warm weather than in cold weather, or Aaron Rodgers is the reverse. Was there a lot of that kind of stuff early on, like player tendencies, how teams performed in certain. In different environments this is the predictive stuff. It's just.

Billy Walters (26:27)

Well, I kind of generally have known that since the early 80s. It's all gotten better over the years. And that information is in a book that goes back to the 70s. So you're talking about information that's been collected over a period of 50 years. And it's been as the world's changed, as players have changed, rules have changed, as stadiums have changed, that's all been refined accordingly.

Michael Lewis (26:59)

Another break here. When we come back, it'll be to find the FBI knocking on Billy Walter's front door.

Malcolm Gladwell (27:12)

This is Malcolm Gladwell from Revisionist History. So we are, we're sitting in what.

Apple Advertiser (27:19)

We'Re sitting in a 1988 BMW 325IS.

Malcolm Gladwell (27:23)

And describe the way in which it's been modified.

Apple Advertiser (27:26)

Oh, it has no interior. That's where it begins.

Malcolm Gladwell (27:31)

Not even a steering wheel as far as I can tell.

Apple Advertiser (27:33)

Yeah, right now there's no steering wheel. Although I can fix that in a second.

Malcolm Gladwell (27:37)

And what's the appeal of a late 80s BMW 325?

Apple Advertiser (27:41)

Well, it's almost like the perfection of a recipe that BMW began in the 60s which is to take a really beautifully made inline six engine, rear wheel drive and just like an incredibly balanced and fun to drive car.

Malcolm Gladwell (27:56)

Yeah, yeah.

Apple Advertiser (27:58)

Let me give a little, little sneak peek. I need to connect the battery. The battery is disconnected.

Malcolm Gladwell (28:08)

We do it. The battery is the backup.

Apple Advertiser (28:09)

The battery is actually under the rear seat.

Malcolm Gladwell (28:11)

Oh, I see. Just. That's it. That's so it has an absolutely perfect balance between front and rear.

Billy Walters (28:16)

Rear.

Malcolm Gladwell (28:16)

Rear way.

Apple Advertiser (28:17)

Exactly.

Billy Walters (28:18)

Yeah, yeah.

Malcolm Gladwell (28:18)

So yes. Turn it on.

Apple Advertiser (28:20)

Let's hear it.

Malcolm Gladwell (28:22)

Oh yes. And this is you. This is your first BMW.

Apple Advertiser (28:33)

My second.

Malcolm Gladwell (28:34)

Oh no, Lucas, you can't say that. What was your second? What was your first?

Apple Advertiser (28:38)

It was in 1989. 535.

Malcolm Gladwell (28:41)

Oh yes, this is. But you own that with a bunch of other people.

Apple Advertiser (28:45)

Yeah, yeah. So this is my first, my true, my first, you know, sole BMW. Solely owned, solely on BMW.

Malcolm Gladwell (28:52)

Okay, wonderful. Whether it's a vintage 3 Series or the all new 20253 Series, you'll never forget your first BMW. The new 3 Series combines mind blowing driving dynamics with modern style. Offering a striking sports sedan that thrills on every ride. With innovative technology, intelligent driver assistance systems and bold design inside and out, the three series makes every journey unforgettable. Learn more at BMW USA.com Congratulations to CBS Sports and Sony Electronics for their first place wins for innovation in industry at this year's unconventional awards by T Mobile for business In a collaboration that was clearly built on breaking new ground, CBS and Sony created a first of its kind broadcast for the PGA Championship. Using a custom built T Mobile Private 5G network to power the live production, they deployed a 5G wireless camera system throughout the event. The network's speed, combined with Sony's innovative ultra Low latency video codec allowed for seamless, high quality footage without disruption. With that innovative approach, CBS gave broadcasters the tools they need to do what they do best take their coverage to entirely new places. These innovations will shape the way live sports are covered moving forward. And for that, T Mobile congratulates Sony and CBS for their unconventional thinking. This message is a Paid partnership with Apple Card When I'm reporting a season of revisionist history, I'll admit I rack up a lot of expenses. There's archival fees, travel expenses, meals, research materials, books, my very own Pushkin plus subscription so I can hear the episodes early on. Apple Podcasts. Of course it all adds up. And that's where my no annual fee Apple Card comes into play. Now every time I pull out my iPhone, double click and tap to Pay, I'm getting 3% cash back on all purchases at Apple and 2% on everything else when I use Apple Pay. I love my Apple Card because it makes the expenses of producing revisionist history go down easy. Plus, there's no fees, all the privacy and security I expect from Apple and everything is done right on my phone. If you have an iPhone, you can apply for an Apple Card right this moment in the Wallet app. It's that easy. Just promise to come back and listen to the rest of the episode. Subject to credit approval.

Apple Advertiser (31:35)

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Malcolm Gladwell (31:37)

19.24% to 29.49% based on credit worthiness rates as of August 1, 2024, Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA.

Apple Advertiser (31:45)

Salt Lake City branch terms and more@applecard.com.

Michael Lewis (31:52)

I'm back with sports gambler Billy Walters. Describe for me, just paint me a picture the difference between the illegal and the legal sports betting markets. Is there any difference?

Billy Walters (32:06)

Yeah, there's a mass difference. There was a mass difference back in those days. The legal betting markets in Las Vegas. You could bet a lot more money in the early 80s than you can bet there today. Frankly, I don't care who you talk to in Las Vegas. They'll tell you it's been very bad for Las Vegas. You got four or five companies have created a monopoly in Las Vegas. So in the early 80s you had say 30 casinos and they all had sports Books and you had 30 different business men, entrepreneurs running them and they were competing against each other. And today you got four or five and, and they've got a monopoly. The illegal sports betting world up until things got regulated in other parts of the US I would say you could probably bet 20 times as much money as you could bet in Las Vegas. Oh yeah, maybe 25 times back then. Yeah. And even today you could bet probably five times as much money in the illegal market as you could bet. You bet more than that. You could probably bet 10 times more in the illegal market than you could. You look at it. I mean, the so called legalized sports betting world today, you got Fanduel, you got Caesars, you got MGM and you've got DraftKings. You got basically four of them that control the entire market.

Michael Lewis (33:33)

How did the FBI mistake the computer group as a bookie?

Billy Walters (33:38)

First of all, there'd never been any, there'd never been any organized group of sports bettors ever. Okay? So if you're an FBI agent, the only thing you've seen up until this point in time that people that were organized were bookmakers and the mob. Okay. And you know, major metropolitan cities, you know, the bookmakers were, you know, they were. Everybody says they were part of the mob. I can tell you what part of the mob they were. They were being shut down. If they didn't pay the mob, they kill them. So if you want to make them part of the mob, it makes them part of the mob. So computer group comes along and in Las Vegas at the time we probably had 30, 35 people and we're betting millions of dollars on sports. And then on top of that, the guy was one of the original members of the computer group. His name was Ivan Mendelin. And unbeknownst to anyone in the group at the time, he was doing business with an organized crime picker, a guy named Dominic Spinelli. And Ivan Mendelin had opened up a sports betting account at the Stardust Hotel in Dominic Spinelli's name. And he was betting on sports on that account. And what Ivan Mendela was doing is has he had an agreement with a computer guys that basically it's going to be ran like a corporation, you know, they were going to make their bets. Each person had a certain percentage, but they weren't going to bet outside the group. They weren't going to do, you know, they weren't allowed to do that. Well, he was cheating, he was doing that. And one of the people he was doing it with was this guy Dominic Spinelli. When the FBI sees this, they begin an investigation. And then they learned that he's also associated with Michael Kent, with me, with others. And then they see all these people, they see millions of dollars, and they'd never seen a group of legalized sports butters before. So they begin their investigation. That part I totally understand. I get it. Okay? But here's the part that you can't understand. After that, they put wiretaps on our phones for 60 days. No one ever took a bet. There were only bets made. And it was extremely obvious. No one in the group knew Dominic Spinelli. Not one person or there was no one in a group associated or affiliated with any kind of an organized crime figure. Well, then after the 60 days of gathering that information, they decided a whole mass raids, 16 or 17 of them, throughout the United States in January of 85. And they confiscated all kinds of records and information, things such as that. When they looked at that, it confirmed again, we were not bookmakers. No one was associated with organized crime. And then the case was essentially dropped for almost five years just before the statue of limitations ran out. And then there was a guy who wrote a book. It was called Interference. And in this guy's book, there was a chapter that he wrote about the computer group. And Pete said the computer group was super successful, that it had won, I think, $25 million in one year. And it referred to this case, and he inferred in there that the government never pursued the case was because one of the members of the group, a guy by the name of Merv Adelson, was married to Barbara Walters, and that Barbara Walters was Nancy Reagan's best friend. And essentially that's the reason they never pursued the case, as if there was a fix in which wasn't true. But as a result of that book, and from what I understand, it went back to Kansas City at the time, I think was making the decisions on indictments in regards to the strike force. And there was a fellow back there who read this book and said, bullshit, there's no fixes in the strike force, and ordered the case to go forward. Huh.

Michael Lewis (38:02)

When all this is happening, is there any sign to you that other people are trying to imitate or copy the computer group?

Billy Walters (38:10)

No, no. There were other groups out there that were betting, that clearly were organized, that were. That knew what they were doing. I mean, they weren't as good as we were. They weren't remotely as good as we were, but, you know, they weren't idiots either. But, you know, there were other groups out There that had started betting that and they were using some type of computerized data, things such as that. But mostly those people were specialists. They would bet on one sport or they would bet within one sport. They would bet on only maybe on two or three conferences. But I saw no one out there that bet all the sports. Kent doesn't bet all the sports either. I mean, I have three the rate I bet all the sports because I had so many different handicappers. You know, Kent, Ken, only he bet on college football, college basketball, pro football for a period of time. But he really never bet on baseball. He never bet on golf. Never bet on. No, I've never bet on hockey, never bet on tennis.

Michael Lewis (39:23)

And you bet on all those?

Billy Walters (39:25)

Yes, sir, I did.

Michael Lewis (39:26)

Are you still doing it?

Billy Walters (39:28)

I'm not betting on all those sports. I still bet on football. I bet on football because number one, I love sports. Number two, I'm still very good at it. I still beat it and if I didn't, I would quit.

Michael Lewis (39:43)

What's the different skill set required to be a really good bookie versus a really good sports gambler?

Billy Walters (39:49)

Well, it's really kind of the same thing. I mean, you have a built in advantage. You're getting 11 to 10. Okay, so, okay, that's number one. Okay. Number two, you want to write as much business as you can possibly write at good prices, you could have the sharpest numbers in the world. If you don't write any business, you're not going to make any money as a bookmaker. On the other hand, you could write billions of dollars worth of business with bad numbers, you're not going to make any money. So you want to be able to do both. And I would say 90% of people who are out there betting today are giving their money to you. They can't win. Let's say there's 10 left. That. Okay. To some degree you need to factor in what they're doing. Okay, so if you're a bookmaker and let's say you got a Billy Walters betting you, okay, the key with that is number one, you would want me betting you because you would want to know what I'm betting on. Then you need to be able to take the information that you got from me betting you and then make that useful to you. And the way you would do that, you would move your line accordingly. And the real key is you want to get the bet as early as you can. The earlier the bet you get, the more time you have to get action back the other way. The later you take the bet. Then you're frozen with it. You're gambling, which is stupid and smart. Bookmakers. The only profession that I've seen, Michael, that has regressed in the last 20 years are bookmakers. Bookmakers 20 years ago were much, much smarter and much better at bookmaking than the guys you have today.

Michael Lewis (41:34)

Why has the bookmaking regressed?

Billy Walters (41:37)

I'll give you an example, especially today with the dissemination of information the way it is today with Twitter, with all these different things out there. Let's say you have an injury with a sports team. Literally the betting public knows about it in a matter of seconds. And let's say you're sitting there and you're running a sports book and you don't know about it in a matter of seconds and you don't change your line or you don't take your game down off the board, you're going to get bet by a number of people that know about it. And the only thing they know is, okay, well, the quarterback's out, okay, but they have no sense to know that that's a good player and that's a winning bet. Betting on those type of situations. Well, that sportsbook operator sitting there, he's sleepy. He hadn't moved his line. And so he gets nailed. He gets a bet from one of these people. Well, automatically he throws the guy out for betting him. Well, he shouldn't tell the guy. That guy that made that bet, 99% of them are going to lose their money because they're going to bet on other games they don't have any information on. It's going to happen. But the only reason he got bet is because he was sitting there sound asleep. If he had been paying attention to his business or had people paying attention to his business, he wouldn't have got bet. He wouldn't have had a cold line. That's what you call a coal line. When you got a dumb bookmaker or a lazy bookmaker, then that hasn't adjusted his numbers. The smart bookmakers of the world, the guys are on top of their game. You can never bet them on a game like that. Hell, they'd have a game scratch before, before the information ever came out or when it came out, within two seconds, it'd be scratched. Okay? So you look at circa, okay, you got a joint in downtown Las Vegas. The only people they have there are tough guys. All they've got are guys that, you know, that eat, sleep and breathe sports 365 days a year. Professional bettors, professional gamblers. They don't get any of that walk in traffic out at the Strip where you got suckers coming to town or just giving you your money, they got nothing but the toughest business in town. And they beat it. They beat it because they know how to book.

Michael Lewis (43:46)

It's a kind of a relationship to information. They want the information 100%.

Billy Walters (43:51)

You want the information instead of dodging it.

Michael Lewis (43:54)

All right, I got one last question for you, then I'm going to let you go.

Billy Walters (43:57)

Sure.

Michael Lewis (43:58)

Kid walks into your, knocks on your door and says, Mr. Walters, I followed your career. I'm thinking about a career in sports gambling. What do you tell them?

Billy Walters (44:08)

I wouldn't do it as a professional better. Clearly, if you want to get into the bookmaking side of it, you want to get in the marketing side of it, whatever you want to get in, you know, if that's your passion, man, go for it. Because I think it's a business that's going to grow and I think there's going to be a lot of opportunity in it. But as far as the sports better is concerned, I would not do it.

Michael Lewis (44:31)

Why?

Billy Walters (44:32)

Well, I was successful for. I mean, if you read my book, you realize, I guess if there's one theme in my book, it's resiliency. And when you look at the situation you got out there now in the United States, you're going to bet on sports. Now, taxation is a joke here. Also, the operators came in and they got all this legalization done. But you know, you got an underlying thing out there with taxes that the people betting on sports aren't even aware of it. But in this country, any money you win, you're subject to federal and state tax, and a federal tax, you're paying tax on ordinary income. It's the only thing in the entire United States tax code. You can't carry forward a law sum one year to the next.

Michael Lewis (45:15)

Well, that just kills it as a business.

Billy Walters (45:17)

Well, it totally kills it. I could easily see where you could really grow this business. I mean, I'm talking about wealthy smart people would bet sports because number one is so much fun and number two, it's so addictive and now it's so easy to do. If they could pay 20% tax on whatever money they won, they can carry forward a loss one year or the next like you do with stocks. You'd have all kinds of people who aren't pitting sports that would bet sports and they would bet, they would play sports high and you would see a.

Michael Lewis (45:45)

Tremendous amount of growth if you remove tax considerations. And the young person is there saying, Should I pursue a career in sports gambling?

Billy Walters (45:54)

Well, then that's different. If it were to be taxed fairly, then, yeah, I think you can beat sports and I think sports can. It's going to be way more work than you ever dreamed and ever dreamed. The market's going to be much smaller than you can ever imagine. It's not, it's minuscule compared to the stock exchange.

Michael Lewis (46:15)

I'm kind of wondering is if you think it's been a good way to go through life.

Billy Walters (46:20)

Well, it's been a great way to go through life for me. Clearly, I've had issues with it. As you know, I've been indicted five times. When I look back over my life, would I do this again? If I know what I know now, yeah, I probably would. Because, look, I loved every day that I did this, Michael. You know, I got up being able to do something every day that I absolutely enjoyed doing. I love doing it and it and it. So, yeah, from my perspective, yes, it was.

Michael Lewis (46:51)

That's my answer.

Billy Walters (46:52)

But if I were a young guy and I were going to become a handicapper, I would specialize in fantasy sports is what I would specialize in. And the reason I would do that, I think 90% of the people who bet on fantasy sports have no chance. They're just giving their money away, I think. I think you got 10% of people betting on fantasy sports are going to win, win all the money. And whereas betting on sides, it's a lot tougher, a lot more competitive. The handicappers have a much bigger advantage and in fantasy sports, they don't care. So if I were going to be a young handicapper and I were going to start all over, I would become a professional handicapper with fantasy sports.

Michael Lewis (47:32)

Thank you for your time.

Billy Walters (47:34)

Thank you. Enjoy, enjoy the visit. Look forward to meeting you one day.

Michael Lewis (47:39)

Billy Walters has written a book about his life. It's called Gambler Secrets from a Life at Risk. And it's great. Next week we hear from some of the old school Vegas bookies on the other side of Billy Walter's bets. Against the Rules is written and hosted by me, Michael Lewis and produced by Lydia Jean Cott and Catherine Girardeau and Ariella Markowitz. Our editor is Julia Barton. Our engineer is Sarah Bruguer. Against the Rules is a production of Pushkin Industries. To find more Pushkin podcasts, listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts. And if you'd like to listen to ad free and learn about other exclusive offerings, don't Forget to sign up for a Pushkin plus subscription at Pushkin FM plus or on our Apple show page.

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