Against the Rules: The Big Short Companion

Here’s the Scoop from NBC News: Looking Ahead to Politics in 2026 with Steve Kornacki and Ryan Nobles

Date: December 29, 2025
Host: Yasmin Vasugin
Guests: Steve Kornacki (NBC Chief Data Correspondent), Ryan Nobles (NBC Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent)

Episode Overview

This episode, guest-hosted by Yasmin Vasugin and presented as a collaboration with NBC’s “Here’s the Scoop,” offers a deep dive into the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. Featuring political analysts Steve Kornacki and Ryan Nobles, it unpacks the political fallout of the 2024 presidential cycle and the transformative events of 2025—including key state elections, control of government, and shifting voter coalitions. The conversation centers on the challenges and opportunities facing Democrats and Republicans, the critical issues driving voters (especially affordability), and the ripple effects for Congress, the presidency, and the 2028 political landscape.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Setting the Stage: The Aftermath of 2025 (03:09–05:54)

• 2025 as a Pivotal Political Year:
  • Republicans gain a governing trifecta. Rapid executive action leads to legal battles.
  • The Department of Government Efficiency rises and falls, resulting in mass layoffs.
  • The longest-ever government shutdown and deep partisan divides.
  • Economic stress is a central flashpoint, giving Democrats a new opening on affordability.
  • Notable Democratic wins:
    • Zorham Mamdani (Democratic Socialist) elected Mayor of New York City.
    • Mikey Sherrill becomes New Jersey’s governor, focusing on utility costs.
    • Abigail Spamberger becomes Virginia’s first woman governor.

2. The Stakes and Landscape of the 2026 Midterms

A) The Uniqueness of 2026 (05:54–10:18)

• Why 2026 matters:

  • “Every election poses new questions or clarifies old questions. And there were new questions that were posed by 2024, Trump winning the way he did. He expanded the Republican coalition with demographic groups that the party has not traditionally performed well, especially Hispanic voters, younger nonwhite voters, young African-American male voters.”
    — Steve Kornacki (06:12)

• The end of wave elections?

  • Polarization and gerrymandering diminish prospects for dramatic seat swings.
  • “The trajectory has been a president gets elected and then there’s a big wave election in the midterms... We’ve seen such increased polarization… I just wonder… if we are kind of gone past the idea of wave elections…”
    — Ryan Nobles (07:31)
  • Steve Kornacki notes that if Democrats replicated their 2018 performance, they’d flip fewer seats (15–20 vs. 40 in 2018), given changes in the electoral map.

B) House and Senate Races to Watch (10:18–15:24)

• Key House races:

  • Michigan features two vulnerable GOP districts, including an open seat in Macomb County—a bellwether area correlated with working-class trends.
  • Western Michigan’s traditional GOP areas show signs of Democratic strength due to changes in Republican party appeal.

• Senate battlegrounds:

  • Maine: Susan Collins’ seat; Democratic primary could be contentious with a progressive challenger (Graham Platner).
    • “If Collins, for some reason doesn’t run, that will be a very difficult seat for Republicans to hold.”
      — Ryan Nobles (12:29)
  • North Carolina: Thom Tillis retiring; Democrats have a strong candidate in Roy Cooper, facing Michael Watley for the GOP.
  • Georgia: Jon Ossoff’s seat is the toughest Democratic hold; Republican chaos as Brian Kemp declines to run.
  • Texas and Iowa are theoretical targets, but Democrats remain skeptical due to repeated past disappointments.

C) Redistricting and the Map (17:33–19:39)

• Recent redistricting realities:
  • California’s new Democratic-drawn map may yield a net of +5 Democratic seats; Texas GOP’s map nets them roughly +5.
  • “I’m not even sure if Texas and California cancel each other out, Democrats may end up, you know, netting a seat or two more out of California than they get out of Texas.”
    — Steve Kornacki (18:28)
  • Republicans’ House margin is so slim (net loss of only two seats possible), making any shifts crucial.

3. Core Issues for 2026 (25:02–27:37)

• Affordability dominates:

  • Health care, housing, and cost of living are top priorities.
  • Democrats failed the “vibes” test in 2024—metrics showed improvement, but public sentiment didn’t match.
    • “A lot of it is gonna be about the vibes of the average American… They tried to sell Americans on this idea that, no, really, the economy is getting better… but Americans didn’t feel better.”
      — Ryan Nobles (25:57)

• Lessons from city races (NYC, Miami):

  • Democratic turnout and energy are remarkably high in non-presidential elections.
  • “The Democratic base is just on fire to vote in every and any election… And so in these like mayoral races… Democratic energy is outpacing Republican energy.”
    — Steve Kornacki (26:56)

4. Party Dynamics: The Legacy and Limits of Trump (27:37–31:50)

• Republican Messaging Puzzle:

  • Trump’s dominance is likened to “the Tom Brady problem.”
    • “The problem that Republicans have had during this era of Donald Trump… is that they haven’t been able to hone a message outside of Donald Trump... This is gonna be their first real test of how they are going to do that in a meaningful way.”
      — Ryan Nobles (28:02)
    • His “affordability hoax” rhetoric complicates GOP strategy.

• Trump’s effects on turnout:

  • Kornacki reviews the Trump era—when Trump is on the ballot, GOP performs better; otherwise, Democrats excel at turnout and enthusiasm.
    • “Trump seems to have access to voters who the average Republican politician doesn’t. And they have struggled to forge those bonds themselves.”
      — Steve Kornacki (30:54)

• Democratic motivation:

  • Trump’s presence is a powerful motivator for Democratic turnout, even in non-presidential cycles.

5. Congressional Power Struggles (31:50–33:44)

• GOP House in turmoil:

  • Leadership instability with factions (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Nancy Mace) increasingly outspoken against Speaker Mike Johnson.
    • “He’s holding on because Donald Trump is allowing him to hold on. But you’re now seeing people… willing to speak out in a way that they weren’t willing to do six months, a year ago.”
      — Ryan Nobles (32:27)
  • Johnson’s fate is tethered to the midterms’ outcome; Trump may withdraw support if results are unfavorable.

• Consequences if Democrats retake Congress:

  • Trump’s agenda could be blocked by Democratic stonewalling and investigations, or even border on constitutional crisis.
  • Three possible Trump reactions: attempt deal-making, resort to unilateral executive action (leading to gridlock and court battles), or escalate investigations and impeachment scenarios.

6. The Road to 2028: How Much Will 2026 Matter? (35:01–37:56)

• Historic patterns:

  • Midterms are rarely good for the party in power; impact on the following presidential election is real but not always predictive.
    • “When George W. Bush’s second term went off the rails, it was just things never recovered for Republicans between 2006 and 2008. … But at the same time… Bill Clinton had a terrible midterm in 1994, got reelected.”
      — Steve Kornacki (35:16)

• 2028 preview:

  • Rising Democratic stars will use the 2026 campaign as a showcase.
  • On the GOP side, debate over whether Trump will anoint a successor (e.g., J.D. Vance or others) or face a real primary.
    • “Even if Donald Trump attempts to anoint someone, we are going to see a competitive Republican primary… my firm belief today… is that we are going to see the first legitimate all-out open primary on both the Republican and Democratic side, as we’ve seen in presidential politics in a really long time.”
      — Ryan Nobles (37:26)

Notable Quotes and Moments

• Steve Kornacki on changing coalitions:

  “Every election poses new questions or clarifies old questions. And there were new questions that were posed by 2024, Trump winning the way he did.” (06:12)

• Ryan Nobles on polarization:

  “I just wonder… if we are kind of gone past the idea of wave elections because of how gerrymandered the process is and, and because of how entrenched people are in their political identity.” (08:13)

• Steve Kornacki on key House seats:

  “Tell me how that (Macomb County, MI) district goes, I think that’s a really good right there. Trump won it by 10 points last year. He barely won it in 2020.” (10:36)

• Ryan Nobles' “Tom Brady problem”:

  “The problem that Republicans have had during this era of Donald Trump… is that they haven’t been able to hone a message outside of Donald Trump.” (27:54)

• Steve Kornacki on the Trump ballot effect:

  “Trump seems to have access to voters who the average Republican politician doesn’t. And they have struggled to forge those bonds themselves. They’ve so far failed to.” (30:54)

• On redistricting:

  “I’m not even sure if Texas and California cancel each other out, Democrats may end up, you know, netting a seat or two more out of California than they get out of Texas.” (18:28)

• Ryan Nobles on 2028 primaries:

  “Even if Donald Trump attempts to anoint someone, we are going to see a competitive Republican primary… we are going to see the first legitimate all out open primary on both the Republican and Democratic side, as we’ve seen in presidential politics in a really long time.” (37:26)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Setting the Stage: Year in Review: 03:09–05:54
• Why 2026 Midterms Matter: 05:57–10:18
• House and Senate Race Analysis: 10:18–15:24
• Redistricting and the Map: 17:33–19:39
• Issue Focus: Affordability: 25:29–27:37
• Party Messaging and Trump’s Shadow: 27:54–31:50
• GOP House Dynamics, Possible Outcomes: 31:50–33:44
• 2026 as a Bellwether for 2028: 35:01–37:56

Summary & Takeaways

This episode is a lively, expert-driven forecast of the 2026 midterms, blending hard data with on-the-ground reporting. The landscape is shaped by Republicans’ narrow control, Democrats’ newfound focus on affordability, and the continuing shadow of Donald Trump. The analysts emphasize that, in an era of historic polarization, each marginal change—every House seat, every Senate fight—matters profoundly. Listeners walk away understanding not only the key races and tactical battles but also the deeper struggles for party identity, leadership, and voter trust that will echo into 2028 and beyond.