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Against the Rules: The Big Short Companion
Here’s the Scoop from NBC News: Looking Ahead to Politics in 2026 with Steve Kornacki and Ryan Nobles
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- [00:00]
Yasmin Vasugin
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
Malcolm Gladwell
Guaranteed Human in today's super competitive business environment, the edge goes to those who push harder, move faster and level up every tool in their arsenal. T Mobile knows all about that. They're now the best network according to the Experts@ookla Speedtest. And they're using that network to launch Super Mobile. The first and only business plan to combine intelligent performance, built in security and seamless satellite coverage. That's your business. Supercharged. Learn more@supermobile.com seamless coverage with compatible devices in most outdoor areas in the US where you can see the sky. Best business plan based on a combination of advanced network performance coverage layers and security features. Best network based on analysis by OOKLA of Speed Test Intelligence Data 1H 2025.
- [00:56]
Coca Cola Announcer
What a matchup we got y'.
- [00:58]
Ryan Nobles
All.
- [00:58]
Coca Cola Announcer
This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. The band is rocking and the crowd lit Chance echoing drum beatin Everybody showing that school pride Game like this. Yeah, it calls for an ice cold Coca Cola. Ah, crisp and refreshing. That's a game changer right there.
- [01:18]
Ryan Nobles
Mmm.
- [01:19]
Coca Cola Announcer
Yeah, that taste always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that, we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors everywhere and an ice cold Coca Cola. That's a winning combo no matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going.
- [01:43]
Steve Kornacki
This is Julian Edelman from Games With Names. Fantasy football can be exhausting. I mean that literally. You're so anxious over your lineup you can't fall asleep. Best way to deal with it is unisom. There's a reason it's the number one doctor recommended over the counter sleep aid brand. It helps you fall asleep faster, wake up less and feel refreshed in the morning. Plus, unisom sleep tabs are clinically tested and proven effective and completely non habit forming. So make the ultimate sleeper pick and put it to bed with unisom. Use as directed.
- [02:21]
Yasmin Vasugin
This is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea or OSA in adults with obesity? They may be happening to you without you knowing. If anyone has ever said you snored loudly or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability and concentration issues, it may be due to osa. OSA is a serious condition where your airway partially or completely collapses during sleep, which may cause breathing interruptions and oxygen deprivation. Learn more at don'tsleep onosa.com this information is provided by Lilly a medicine company.
- [03:05]
Coca Cola Announcer
Pushkin.
- [03:09]
Yasmin Vasugin
Hi, against the Rules listeners. I'm Yasim Desugyan, the host of NBC's Daily News podcast. Here's the Scoop with headlines and conversations that we serve daily. I'm happy to share a recent episode with you. Our 2026 politics look ahead with two very good friends of mine and of the pod, NBC's chief data correspondent Steve Kornacki and chief Capitol Hill correspondent Ryan Nobles. I hope you enjoy the show and if you like what you heard, you can subscribe to here's the Scoop from NBC News. Wherever you get your podcasts, here's our conversation. Hey everybody. Welcome to here's the Scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Bisugin for our very last episode of 2025. If you're a listener, and I hope you are, I do not have to tell you that this year was pivotal. Politically speaking. Republicans took over with a governing trifecta. Within days, the president signed dozens of executive orders, many of which are still being challenged in court. We saw the rise in the fall of the Department of Government Efficiency, which led to mass layoffs of federal workers. There was the longest ever government shutdown and of course, squabbles between Democrats and Republicans about where to take the country next. A major flashpoint amongst all of this is cost of living. While Trump rated this economy as an A + + + +, his approval rating slid. That finally gave Democrats an opening to rack up some W's by campaigning on affordability. In New York City, 34 year old Democratic socialist and now Mayor elect Zorham Mamdani confirmed to New Yorkers that the rent is too darn high because of you.
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Ryan Nobles
We will make this city one that working people can love and and live in again.
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Yasmin Vasugin
And then just across the river in New Jersey, incoming Governor Mikey Sherrill said she'd declare a state of emergency to deal with utility costs. These are the struggles that keep families up at night. And for far too long, career politicians have promised to do something about it. But nothing seems to change in New Jersey. And I've had enough. Abigail Spamberger became the first woman elected governor of Virginia. You all chose leadership that will focus relentlessly on what matters most, lowering costs, keeping our communities safe and strengthening our economy. For every Virginian now the question becomes can Democrats carry that message and that success at the ballot box into 2026 and the midterms? Today, we're going to take a look ahead to the coming year in Politics. And I can think of no two better people to ring in the Political New Year with than chief data correspondent Steve Kornacki and chief Capitol Hill correspondent Ryan Nobles. Hey, guys.
- [05:55]
Malcolm Gladwell
Hey, Yas.
- [05:56]
Steve Kornacki
Yasmin.
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Yasmin Vasugin
Traditionally, the incumbent party does not do well in midterm elections. That is, the president ends up losing the House and possibly the Senate as well. Why is this midterms to you, Steve, from your perspective, so, so important?
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Steve Kornacki
Every election poses new questions or clarifies old questions. And there were new questions that were posed by 2024, Trump winning the way he did. He expanded the Republican coalition with demographic groups that the party has not traditionally performed well, especially Hispanic voters, younger non white voters, young African American male voters. So we saw a lot of sort of non white expansion and youth expansion of the Republican vote in 2024. What's left of that in 2026? Yeah, I think it'll give us clues about, you know, where to look in.
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Yasmin Vasugin
2028 from the Dynamics of the House and the Senate and the Capitol. Ryan, what are you going to be watching as we head towards the midterms this year?
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Ryan Nobles
Well, I think Steve raises a good point about the way traditionally midterm elections play out and they traditionally are the advantage to the party that's not in power. And I do think there is a dynamic that could exist here where Democrats maybe over analyze the results of what happened in 2025 in races that candidly they should have won. Right. They should have won Virginia, they should have won New Jersey. Obviously, they should have won New York City. But I think that they what they were most buoyed by is how much they won those races. And given the fact that they came on the heels of Donald Trump doing much better in both of those places. So Democrats are now back into a position where they're holding serve, where they're supposed to hold serve. The question now is, has that bled over into some of these other districts that have traditionally gone red or have not been as blue as they've been in the past? And while in the past, you know, kind of the trajectory has been a president gets elected and then there's a big wave election in the midterms where either the Republicans or Democrats end up with a net of 30 or 40 seats, we've seen such an increased polarization in this country where even if the president in power isn't necessarily all that popular, people tend to come home to the party that they identify themselves with. I just wonder, and Steve can maybe speak to this better from the data and analytics side of it if we are kind of gone past the idea of wave elections because of how gerrymandered the process is and, and because of how entrenched people are in their political identity, the headwinds right now show us that, you know, there's kind of this Democratic boom that could potentially happen here. But I'm still of the belief that until I see it, I'm not quite sure that is going to happen, maybe in the way that Democrats are hoping based on what they saw in November of 25.
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Yasmin Vasugin
Right.
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Steve Kornacki
Well, yes, it's interesting one, maybe a point of reference here, a good point of reference here, would be the first Trump midterm, you know, 2018 from his first term. And if you remember, you know, a blue wave midterm election and Republicans lost 40 seats back then, you know, to Ryan's point, when you look at the seats that Democrats flipped in 2018, they were basically all districts that either had already voted Democratic in the presidential election. You know, they had voted for Hillary Clinton In 2016, Trump was president. Now they voted for a Democrat for Congress. That was like half the democratic gains in 2018. There are almost no seats on the map in 2026 that are like that. So, so there's less low hanging fruit, you know, for the Democrats than there was last time. And then the other thing is just about all the other democratic gains in 2018 were districts, this is about 20 seats or so, districts that Trump had won by less than 10 points, really less than about 8 points. And again, there's far fewer of those that are going to be on the board in 2026. So even if Democrats basically perform the exact same as they did in 2018, there's going to be less on the table for them to sort of pick off. So the idea of, you know, do we, do we not have wave elections like we did in the past? I mean, that's, Yeah, I mean, I think the exact same Democratic performance that you saw in 2018, Trump's first midterm, if you got that again, would probably net Democrats 15 to 20 seats instead of 40.
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Yasmin Vasugin
So are there specific House races, Steve, that you're watching that seem more vulnerable to being flipped than others?
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Steve Kornacki
You know, Michigan's got two districts, two Republican held districts that I think would be pretty good tests for, for 2026. One is going be an open House seat, Michigan, you know, Right. Trump won it in 16, lost it in 20, wanted in 2024. Two key areas there. You know, one of them would be just north of Detroit, Macomb County. We Always talk about it. There's the two big bedroom community suburban counties outside Detroit. There's Oakland county, it's the economically upscale one. There's Macomb county. That's the blue collar one. There's a district there, you know, the Macomb county district. It's an open seat currently held by a Republican. He's not running for reelection in the district. Tell me how that district goes. I think that's a really good right there. Trump won it by 10 points last year. He barely won it in 2020. Where is it in that range? There's two districts out by Grand Rapids and that western part of Michigan that are very interesting to me, too, because this is sort of traditionally very Republican territory in Michigan, but it's gotten less Republican since Trump came on the scene. It's an area where the Trump style of Republicanism is not a good fit with the traditional style of Republicanism that's kind of prevailed there. And Democrats, in fact, were able to pick off one of those seats a couple years ago that I think could be pretty telling.
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Yasmin Vasugin
What about the Senate? What's vulnerable in the Senate right now, Steve?
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Steve Kornacki
The most obvious target for Democrats is Maine. Okay, Maine, because you have a state that vote, you know, that hasn't voted Republican and presidential for a long time. You've got a Republican incumbent who's up for reelection there, Susan Collins. It looks like she said something in the last couple of weeks that made you wonder if she's 100% committed here. So we'll see. I suspect she's running.
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Yasmin Vasugin
You want to chime in, Ryan, real quick on that?
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Ryan Nobles
Yeah, I mean, I, I agree with Steve that Susan Collins, the senator, incumbent senator from Maine, who Democrats have been trying to beat for 20 years and every year think that they've got the opportunity to. I think if she runs, she's still the favorite there. And to Steve's point, she has not definitively said that she's going to run. She hasn't, like, launched her reelection campaign, but she's raised money and she has not said that she's not going to run. And I do think part of it is the Democrats have opportunities here, but they also have opportunities they could mess up. They've got a competitive primary in Maine right now with the incumbent governor, Janet Mills. And her biggest opponent right now is a progressive named Graham Platner, who has Bernie Sanders endorsement, is drawing huge crowds, but has a bunch of baggage from his past that has kind of come to light that Republicans are ready to use on him if he were to make it to the general election. So there's a candidate quality issue in some of these races. There's just the power of the incumbency. I think if Collins, for some reason, doesn't run, that will be a very difficult seat for Republicans to hold. So I agree with Steve in that regard. I also think North Carolina is a key opportunity for Democrats. The incumbent Republican there, Thom Tillis, is not running for reelection. We don't think of North Carolina necessarily as a swing state, but keep in mind it's a state that Barack Obama won, that Joe Biden was very competitive in and that Kamala Harris was also competitive in. They've got their dream candidate there in Roy Cooper, who is. Was the Democrat, and they ended up not being able to recruit Lara Trump to run in that seat. And so they're running Michael Watley, a former RNC chairman, who's not a bad candidate, but isn't necessarily the kind of the pizzazz candidate they were looking for. But then on the other side of that, the Democrats have the most difficult hold on the entire map, and that's the state of Georgia. Georgia is increasingly becoming a purple state, but I still think in our minds, we think of that as a red state because of where it is in the South. But Georgia demographically has changed a lot, and it's probably shocking to think that they've had two Democratic senators for quite some time, going all the way back to 2020. And so Jon Ossoff, who was elected six years ago to that spot, is up for reelection. The Republicans, much like the Democrats, are having a hard time figuring out who they're gonna run against him because the state's governor, Brian Kemp, decided not to run in that race. So I think that the Democrats have opportunities, but the map is one in which they've got a lot more to defend. If they draw the right candidate and the environment is right, they've got a shot. But I do think that if you talk to most Democratic donors and most power brokers in the Democratic Party, their focus is really on winning back the House, where they think there's a real opportunity. And if the Senate comes along with it, they'll take that kind of as the icing on the cake. But they feel like if they can at least get the Senate back or the House back, that at least provides a roadblock right now for Trump's agenda, which doesn't currently exist in Washington right now.
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Steve Kornacki
The problem for Democrats is you could see them potentially, you know, Maine. You could definitely see a world where they win. Maine you could see a world, maybe, where they win North Carolina. You could see a world where they. Where they even defend these seats. We're talking about certainly that extra seat that they would need if they're actually gonna win the majority.
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Malcolm Glauble
Where.
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Steve Kornacki
Where would they scare it up? And I think that would require them ultimately to win a state like te. And, you know, I think Iowa, maybe. Iowa, right.
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Yasmin Vasugin
You know, I feel like so many times we have talked about Texas, Texas, Texas, but every time, Texas has delivered exactly what we thought Texas was going to deliver.
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Ryan Nobles
Every time, Yasmin. Every midterm, I find myself on a sojourn to Texas with the. With the storyline of this is the year for Democrats, and it never pans out that way. I mean, and. And I think the other thing, too, that that's important to keep in mind about this, too, is that, you know, if you're a Democratic strategist and you're thinking about where to invest your finite amount of resources in a crucial midterm, maybe among the most important midterms in Democratic history, do you spend that money in Texas, or do you invest that money to make sure Jon Ossoff holds onto his seat, or to help Roy Cooper in North Carolina, or to make sure that Hakeem Jeffries has the resources he needs to win the House back? I just think that the Democrats are gonna have a lot of tough decisions to make about what they're gonna do in Texas. The issue for Democratic donors is Texas is such a great fundraising tool. You can go online and suggest that you're gonna boot a Republican senator from Texas, and that really fires up donors. The best story I have, and I'll make it as quick as I can. I was covering the 2018 midterms in Florida. That was back when Florida was a swing state, and there was a guy named Ron DeSantis who was running for governor there, and Rick Scott was running against the incumbent, Bill Nelson, who was the incumbent Democrat there. It was probably the most important race on the Democrats map in 2018. I was at an event for Bill Nelson, and there was a bellboy working the hotel that I was at, and he saw of our camera equipment, and he said, what are you guys in town here for? And we're cover. And I said, we're here to cover the U.S. senate race. And he looked at me and he goes, oh, yeah, you think Beto's gonna win? Talking about the race in Texas. So here was somebody that was a voter in the most important state in the country and was at least somewhat politically enough connected to it, that he was more concerned about what was happening in Texas, a race that he honestly had no shot in winning. That story's always in the back of my mind when it comes to Democrats and their hopes about Texas.
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Yasmin Vasugin
When we talk about redistricting, Kornacki, listen, we saw the win in Texas, especially when it came to the Supreme Court decision, the California win for the Democrats. When it comes to Gavin Newsom's redistricting, the governor there, we know other states are going to be trying to do that before the midterms as well. How is that going to change the game?
- [17:53]
Steve Kornacki
I don't think to the degree a lot of folks thought it was going to three months ago when this first kind of became a thing with Texas taking that first step. I mean, look, the fact that California, the Democrats in California were able to scramble, get this new map that they drew up approved by voters, that's huge. I mean, that map in California probably nets the Democrats five seats. The map in Texas that Republicans have drawn may net Republicans five seats out of Texas. You could look at a couple of those districts and there's a better Republican chance in those districts now than there was before, but it's by no means a cinch. So I'm not even sure if Texas and California cancel each other out, Democrats may end up, you know, netting a seat or two more out of California than they get out of Texas. Right now, without any redistricting, Republicans can afford a net loss of two seats, two House seats. The context we're talking about here is in midterm elections, there are only three examples going back a century where the White House party has not lost seats. And they came with giant historical asterisks. 1934, the Great Depression, 1998, the impeachment of Bill Clinton that caused a backlash that benefited Democrats. In 2002, it was the shadow of 911 that propelled Republicans, George W. Bush in that midterm. Every other midterm election going back a century, the White House party loses seats and it's only a question of how many. And if the cushion for Republicans is only, you know, let's say five seats, effectively, when has the damage been inside of five seats for the White House party once? 1962. So, yeah, I think at the beginning of this process, there was a sense that Republicans might be able to draw themselves to an effective cushion of 10 plus seats. I don't think it's going to land anywhere near there.
- [19:39]
Yasmin Vasugin
We're going to take a very quick break. We're going to be back with Ryan Nobles and Steve Encyclopedia Kornacki in just a minute. Stay with us.
- [19:51]
Coca Cola Announcer
What a matchup we got, y'.
- [19:52]
Malcolm Gladwell
All.
- [19:53]
Coca Cola Announcer
This is that classic HBCU vibe. Non stop action. The band is rocking and the crowd lit chant echoing drum beatin Everybody showing that school pride. A game like this. Yeah, it calls for an ice cold Coca Cola. Ah, crisp and refreshing. That's a game changer right there. Yeah, that taste always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that, we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors everywhere and an ice cold Coca Cola. That's a winning combo no matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going.
- [20:37]
Malcolm Glauble
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- [22:32]
Malcolm Gladwell
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- [25:02]
Yasmin Vasugin
And we are back with here's this group from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Vesugin, joined by NBC Chief Data Analyst Steve Kornacki and Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent Ryan Nobles, Chief squared on this special episode. Ryan, I'm gonna start with you talk about some of the issues that we are facing in the 2026 midterms. What are the topics in which you feel as if Republicans and Democrats are gonna be championing as they make their way towards November.
- [25:29]
Ryan Nobles
So there's no doubt that affordability is the overarching biggest issue. And I think that under the banner of affordability, health care is gonna be a big tent pole underneath that umbrella. The cost of housing is gonna be a big tent pole under that umbrella. And then just the cost of everyday goods, what you're paying for with groceries, what you're paying for at the gas pump, all of those things. A lot of it is gonna be about the vibes of the average American. And we saw the Democrats lose the vibes game going into the 2024 presidential election. They tried to sell Americans on this idea that, no, really, the economy is getting better. Look at all these metrics that tell us it's getting better. But Americans didn't feel better. Americans still don't feel better. So I think you're gonna see both parties try and claim the ground for who has got the best message on affordability. And I think there's a compelling case to be made that whoever Americans believe will end up winning the election in November.
- [26:27]
Yasmin Vasugin
How much can we actually take away from the New York City mayoral race and the Miami mayoral race as well, both candidates running on affordability? But how do you think that could resonate kind of on a national level, especially when it comes to the midterms?
- [26:40]
Steve Kornacki
Yeah, I mean, look, I always say, trying to export lessons from a New York City mayor's election nationally, I'm always, I say take a big grain of salt there. What we saw this year in these off year elections where you had partisan elections, the Democrats were overperforming. It's consistent with the president with a low approval rating. It's also consistent with something we've seen now for really, you know, the entire Trump era. And that is that the Democratic base is just on fire to vote in every and any election. They vote for president, they vote in midterm elections, but they vote in mayoral elections, they vote in speakers special elections, they vote in school board elections. And so in these like mayoral races in a place like Miami, I think that's something you're seeing too is just that Democratic energy is outpacing the Republican energy. And the question is if that Republican energy is going to kind of come up for, for 2026. But I think when it comes to the economy, look, it's just, it's It's a. It's a sort of a time tested thing in politics. If, if voters are not feeling good about the economy, they're going to take it out on the incumbent party.
- [27:38]
Yasmin Vasugin
Ryan, have Republicans honed how they're going to message affordability and the response to issues on the economy? Aside from pointing at the Biden administration, which we are now arguably inside the Trump administration's economy, the answer is no.
- [27:55]
Ryan Nobles
I think the Republicans have a Tom Brady problem. Let me explain what I mean by that. So, you know, for years, the New England Patriots, much to my chagrin as a Buffalo Bills fan, were the powerhouse in the AFC east and the NFL in general. And there was no doubt that during that window of time, it was that Tom Brady was the star quarterback who was the engine that kind of made that whole entire operation run. And during that period of time, there was this perception that New England had the far and away best organization and best franchise. But a lot of that was contingent on the fact that Tom Brady was the best player in football. And as soon as Tom Brady left, you saw the Patriots crater. And I think that right now, Republicans are in kind of the waning stages of the Tom Brady era of the Republican Party in Donald Trump. And what Republicans have not figured out is how they can take the energy and the political dynamism that Donald Trump has and then transfer it to the other players on the field, much like the Patriots were never able to do without Tom Brady. As soon as Tom Brady exited the stage, the Patriots found themselves in a position where they just could not replicate the same level of success. So the problem that Republicans have had during this era of Donald Trump, which has been, you know, in aggregate successful for them, is that they haven't been able to hone a message outside of Donald Trump. And so this is gonna be their first real test of how they are going to do that in a meaningful way. And I don't think that they figured that out yet. And I think the affordability question is the first stage of that, trying to create a plan absent of what Donald Trump says about it. And, you know, he's not doing them any favors by calling it an affordability hoax and things along those lines. But it's becoming more and more clear that they've got to figure out how to do this on their own.
- [29:42]
Yasmin Vasugin
Would you agree with that, Steve, that in fact, without the Tom Brady, the Donald Trump of it all, the numbers represent that Republicans cannot or have a harder time reaching voters?
- [29:55]
Steve Kornacki
I mean, yeah, I think that the history of the Trump era Kind of speaks for itself if you just go through it, right? Like 2016 is the first time he runs and he wins. And Republicans sort of down ballot in 16, you know, held up pretty well. And then what, what happened since then? 2017, off year elections, Virginia, New Jersey, disaster for Republicans. 2018, you know, Trump's not on the ballot. Midterm election, blue wave, you know, 2019, this was off year. Off, off year elections. But Democrats even won the governorship of Kentucky in 2019. Trump not on the ballot. 2020, Trump loses, you know, for reelection, although I think exceeded expectations, expectations. And Republicans actually gained some House seats. Trump was on the ballot, you know, 2021, 2022, you know, Republicans were expecting the big Biden backlash midterm that didn't really materialize. Republicans made very small gains, enough to get control of the House, barely, but not the kind of gains they were hoping for. Trump not on the bat, you see. So it's, Trump comes back on the ballot in 24. Republicans have a good year. So, yeah, I mean, I think the average Republican politician has been trying to figure this out for a decade now. And I think what they've kind of realized is Trump seems to have access to voters who the average Republican politician doesn't. And they have struggled to forge those bonds themselves. They've so far failed to. At the same time, those Republican politicians are still not sure what to do because they see that Trump alienates voters, that they think they can win themselves. And it's this, this, this balancing act that they just. The party has not figured out for a decade.
- [31:27]
Yasmin Vasugin
It's a bit of a pickle.
- [31:28]
Ryan Nobles
And conversely, yeah, the other end of that, too, not to belabor this point, is that while Republicans have a difficult time riding Donald Trump's coattails when he's not on the ballot, Democrats have no problem getting motivated by it. So the fact that Donald Trump is in office will be a motivating factor for Democratic voters, particularly Democratic base voters, in what will be a very crucial year.
- [31:50]
Yasmin Vasugin
How much is kind of the loss of women within the Republican Party and Republican leadership ranks, Ryan going to play into any of this? And what I mean by that is obviously the Marjorie Taylor Greene's of the world jumping ship and speaking out. Stefaniks, Mace, all of that with Speaker Johnson saying, no, no, no, I still have control, everybody.
- [32:11]
Ryan Nobles
I think that the Republican caucus in the House of Representatives is going to go through a kind of an existential crisis here through the next year or so. I think that Speaker Johnson will likely be able to hold on to his speakership through the midterm elections. But unless he wins those midterm elections in a convincing fashion, it will be very difficult to see President Trump be willing to continue to prop him up in that position. Right now, he's holding on because Donald Trump is allowing him to hold on. But you're now seeing people like Marjorie Taylor Greene, like Nancy Mace, you saw these moderate Republicans that bucked him on the Affordable Care act, willing to speak out in a way that they weren't willing to do six months a year ago. And so unless there's a convincing Republican win, which we've already talked about the prospects of that, I can't imagine that Donald Trump is gonna be willing to continue to spend his political capital on Mike Johnson. And when you consider the fact that Donald Trump may be a lame duck, there may not be Republicans that are necessarily gonna just be willing to roll over and do whatever Donald Trump tells them to. So there's no one who has more on the line over the next eight to 10 months than Mike Johnson. His entire political future is riding on this midterm election. He's got to demonstrate some level of progress, or else there's going to be a huge, huge kind of uprising within the Republican ranks, particularly in the House of Representatives.
- [33:37]
Yasmin Vasugin
If Republicans lose control of Congress. Ryan, how much will that hamper the president's efforts to get legislation across the finish line?
- [33:45]
Ryan Nobles
Well, it's going to make it really difficult. And I think there's two ways that it can go. There's really three ways that it can go. There can be one, which is always a possibility, that Donald Trump wakes up and decides that he wants to be a deal maker because he's, you know, he's not ideologically driven by things. He's transactionally driven by things. And so there is. There is a universe, however unlikely it is, that he decides that he's going to try and find a way to work with Democrats. That's the first, probably most unlikely. The second is that it becomes a borderline constitutional crisis where Democrats stand in the way of everything he wants to do. He tries to do it anyway through executive order or just by the sheer force of his own will, and we end up in court battles and gridlock the likes of which we've never seen. And then the third way is that Democrats become completely adversarial to the point where they are investigating and subpoenaing and doing everything they possibly can to stand in the way of his agenda. And that could be another impeachment situation. It could be, you know, members of his administration hauled before panels to answer questions in an open setting, which would be, you know, make any sort of serious legislating become impossible.
- [35:01]
Yasmin Vasugin
So for my last question, Kornacki, since it's almost 2026, I can't help but talk about 2028. How much can the results of 2026 predict, where we could be headed for 2028? What does history tell us?
- [35:17]
Steve Kornacki
Well, it's a mixed bag on that, right? I mean, look, when George W. Bush's second term went off the rails, it was just things never recovered for Republicans between 2006 and 2008. It was just, it was almost like two waves happened. There was a Democratic wave in 06, the second Bush midterm, and then there was Barack Obama's pretty decisive election in 2008. You can even look at Obama's second term. The 2014 midterm for Obama went really badly for Democrats, and then two years later, Trump got elected president. But at the same time, it's also, as we say, it's the nature of midterm elections. It's almost always bad for the White House party. It doesn't always turn. Bill Clinton had a terrible midterm in 1994, got reelected. So we, we've seen this. We've seen this, too. So I think, to me, the midterm is, in some ways, I think this is true. On the Democratic side, certainly, it's about you're going to watch all of the potential prospects out there using it as an opportunity to sort of showcase their talents campaigning for candidates next year. You're going to see, you know, the 28 field is going to be activated for the 26 candidates next year. And I'm curious on the Republican side, I think there's a very open question here of what that process is going to look like in 2028. Is Trump going to try to anoint, like, J.D. vance, his vice president, ahead of time and kind of head off a primary, or do we see more of a competitive process emerge?
- [36:41]
Ryan Nobles
I think what we are starting to see little by little, and it is very subtle, but there are many people in the Republican Party who want to be president who are worried, or maybe not worried, but are preparing for this idea that Donald Trump may anoint someone and are seemingly position positioning themselves prepared to bucket. And the two names that I'll point you to are Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri. Both of them have found very subtle, very calculated opportunities to break with Donald Trump without specifically saying they're breaking from Donald Trump. And I think they both are kind of leaning in, in a more aggressive posture on the whole populist message and are trying to separate themselves from areas where Donald Trump claims to be a populist but has become more of a corporatist. The prediction I would make is that even if Donald Trump attempts to anoint someone, we are going to see a competitive Republican primary. And it's my firm belief today on whatever we are in December of 2025, that we are going to see the first, first legitimate all out open primary on both the Republican and Democratic side, as we've seen in presidential politics in a really long time.
- [37:57]
Yasmin Vasugin
Ryan Nobles, Steve Kornacki, Happy New Year, guys.
- [38:00]
Steve Kornacki
Happy New Year. Yes.
- [38:01]
Ryan Nobles
Happy New Year.
- [38:02]
Malcolm Gladwell
Yes.
- [38:04]
Yasmin Vasugin
All right. That is going to do it for us at here's the scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Bissugin. We are going to take a few days off and we'll be back in your feed on Friday with the last episode. Rounding out our specials week, NBC News senior business correspondent Christine Romans joins us to break down the Alphabet story soup of personal finance, which I think we can all use after the holiday spending sprees. She explains why you don't have to go totally no spend no fun January to make a difference. And I gotta tell you, I even learned a lot in our conversation. So that's coming up on Friday. But for now and for 2025, see you later. And happy New Year, everybody. FOREIGN.
- [38:52]
Malcolm Gladwell
This is Malcolm Gladwell from Medal of Honor Stories of Courage. This episode is brought to you by Navy Federal Credit Union. Navy Federal is proud to serve over 2 million veterans and their families because their service inspires Navy Federals and your service opens the door to membership, which means you get access to exclusive rates, discounts and financial tools that you can share with your whole family. Become a member@navyfederal.org veterans and from all of Navy Federal, happy Veterans Day. Navy Federal Credit Union. Navy Federal is insured by ncua.
- [39:30]
Yasmin Vasugin
This is Eva Longoria from Hungry for History with Eva Longoria and Maite Gomez Rejon. Like the song says, it's the most wonderful time of the year and also a wonderfully busy one. All that merriment can weigh down even Santa's sleigh. So keep it wonderful by keeping yourself wonderful with a crisp, cold Coca Cola. Ah, pause for fizzy joy. Look out for yourself and then look out for everyone else. And together we'll make this season as wonderful as it's meant to be. Enjoy a Coca Cola refresh your holidays. At cvs, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At cvs, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So Visit us@cvs.com or just come by our store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.