Against the Rules with Michael Lewis

Episode: The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting Decisions of 2024
Release Date: December 28, 2024
Host: Pushkin Industries
Description:
Journalist and bestselling author Michael Lewis explores the figures in American life who rely on the public's trust, whether in sports, in business, in the courtroom, or on TV. In the latest season, Michael delves into America’s newest form of legalized gambling, sports betting, and its profound impact on players, teenagers, and fans alike.

Introduction

In the episode titled "The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting Decisions of 2024," Michael Lewis introduces a unique awards show hosted by statistician Nate Silver and psychologist Maria Konnikova. This special segment, inspired by the Risky Business podcast, aims to highlight and evaluate the significant decisions made across various spheres in 2024, ranging from politics and business to sports and entertainment.

The Risky Awards Overview

Michael Lewis sets the stage for an engaging discussion by explaining the premise of the Risky Awards. The awards categorize decisions into segments such as the best hero calls, worst folds, coolers of the year, and more, providing a comprehensive look back at the year's pivotal moments.

Michael Lewis [01:51]:
"That show is all about being smarter when it comes to risk, about how to make better decisions. It's hosted by Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, and they give out awards for the best, the worst, and the wildest gambles of 2024."

Hero Call of the Year

Maria Konnikova [03:33]:
"I think Theo, the French whale, has to get the hero call of the year award. He bet millions that Trump would win on Polymarket, and it paid off despite the market's volatility."

Nate Silver concurs, praising Theo's bold move which, albeit risky, proved to be significantly profitable.

Nate Silver [04:31]:
"Theo absolutely deserves the hero call of the year. He made a bold move and ended up making a substantial profit."

Worst Fold of the Year

Maria Konnikova [05:29]:
"The worst fold of the year has to be the decision by a charismatic politician in Pennsylvania to pick Tim Wells, which seemed like a no-brainer but backfired disastrously."

Nate Silver adds an alternative perspective by criticizing those who sold Bitcoin during the bear market.

Nate Silver [06:43]:
"The worst fold was anyone who sold Bitcoin at the beginning of the year during the bear market. It was an obvious mistake given the market's cyclical nature."

Cooler of the Year

Maria Konnikova [07:35]:
"The coolest of the year goes to Greta Gerwig for 'Barbie,' which, despite its success, was completely shut out at the Oscars."

Nate Silver highlights Apple's strategic withdrawal from the electric vehicle market as another significant 'cooler' decision.

Nate Silver [10:46]:
"I'm giving Apple the GTO call of the year for abandoning their electric vehicle project. It was a tough but mathematically sound decision."

Tilt of the Year

Maria Konnikova [09:48]:
"Joe Biden's decision to run for reelection and pardon his son Hunter exemplifies 'tilt,' where emotions override rational decision-making."

Nate Silver agrees, emphasizing the emotional aspects influencing Biden's campaign decisions.

Nate Silver [10:01]:
"Biden's choices, driven by emotions rather than strategic calculations, epitomize the tilt of the year."

Cognitive Bias of the Year

Nate Silver [12:29]:
"The sunk cost fallacy best explains 2024, particularly in Biden's campaign where continued investment despite declining prospects ultimately cost them the election."

Maria Konnikova [13:56]:
"Group think within the Democratic Party, leading to a disconnect with broader voter sentiments, was a significant cognitive bias this year."

D Gen of the Year

Nate Silver [14:53]:
"Ippei Mizuhara receives the D Gen of the Year award for his involvement in high-stakes, risky sports betting activities."

Additional Awards and Highlights

• Greta Gerwig's 'Barbie' received recognition despite its Oscar snub, highlighting the disconnect between commercial success and critical acclaim.
• Juan Soto's move from the Yankees to the Mets was lauded as a bold sports decision, showcasing loyalty and career strategy.
• Sam Altman and OpenAI were called out for what Michael Lewis describes as a significant bluff regarding their mission and profit motives.

Maria Konnikova [21:05]:
"Sam Altman and OpenAI are awarded for their biggest bluff of the year, misleading the public about their nonprofit intentions."

Personal Awards and Reflections

Nate and Maria also reflect on their personal decisions and predictions for the year:

• Maria Konnikova acknowledges nearly missing a significant bet related to Florida politics.
• Nate Silver concedes a miscalculation regarding the impact of cryptocurrency on elections, recognizing the underestimated influence of the crypto vote.

Conclusion and Insights

The episode concludes with a lighthearted exchange about their respective poker performances and a recap of the awards. Michael Lewis teases the return of the regular season in the new year, promising more insightful discussions on the erosion of public trust in various American institutions.

Michael Lewis [24:38]:
"We'll be back with our regular season very soon in the new year."

Key Takeaways

• Risk Management: Bold decisions can lead to significant rewards or notable failures, emphasizing the importance of strategic risk assessment.
• Emotional Decision-Making: Allowing emotions to influence critical decisions can lead to suboptimal outcomes.
• Cognitive Biases: Recognizing and mitigating biases like sunk cost fallacy and group think is essential for sound decision-making.
• Industry Insights: Strategic withdrawals, such as Apple's exit from the electric vehicle market, demonstrate the necessity of adaptability in business.

Notable Quotes:

• Maria Konnikova [03:33]:
  "A hero call is about making bold moves that pay off, and Theo did exactly that."

• Nate Silver [06:43]:
  "Selling Bitcoin at the bear market was an obvious mistake in hindsight."

• Nate Silver [10:46]:
  "Apple's decision to abandon electric vehicles was tough but strategically sound."

This episode of "Against the Rules with Michael Lewis" provides a comprehensive analysis of the year's most significant and risky decisions, offering listeners valuable insights into effective risk management and the pitfalls of emotional and biased decision-making.