The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting Decisions of 2024

Summary

Against the Rules with Michael Lewis

Episode: The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting Decisions of 2024
Release Date: December 28, 2024
Host: Pushkin Industries
Description:
Journalist and bestselling author Michael Lewis explores the figures in American life who rely on the public's trust, whether in sports, in business, in the courtroom, or on TV. In the latest season, Michael delves into America’s newest form of legalized gambling, sports betting, and its profound impact on players, teenagers, and fans alike.

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Introduction

In the episode titled "The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting Decisions of 2024," Michael Lewis introduces a unique awards show hosted by statistician Nate Silver and psychologist Maria Konnikova. This special segment, inspired by the Risky Business podcast, aims to highlight and evaluate the significant decisions made across various spheres in 2024, ranging from politics and business to sports and entertainment.

The Risky Awards Overview

Michael Lewis sets the stage for an engaging discussion by explaining the premise of the Risky Awards. The awards categorize decisions into segments such as the best hero calls, worst folds, coolers of the year, and more, providing a comprehensive look back at the year's pivotal moments.

Michael Lewis [01:51]:
"That show is all about being smarter when it comes to risk, about how to make better decisions. It's hosted by Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, and they give out awards for the best, the worst, and the wildest gambles of 2024."

Hero Call of the Year

Maria Konnikova [03:33]:
"I think Theo, the French whale, has to get the hero call of the year award. He bet millions that Trump would win on Polymarket, and it paid off despite the market's volatility."

Nate Silver concurs, praising Theo's bold move which, albeit risky, proved to be significantly profitable.

Nate Silver [04:31]:
"Theo absolutely deserves the hero call of the year. He made a bold move and ended up making a substantial profit."

Worst Fold of the Year

Maria Konnikova [05:29]:
"The worst fold of the year has to be the decision by a charismatic politician in Pennsylvania to pick Tim Wells, which seemed like a no-brainer but backfired disastrously."

Nate Silver adds an alternative perspective by criticizing those who sold Bitcoin during the bear market.

Nate Silver [06:43]:
"The worst fold was anyone who sold Bitcoin at the beginning of the year during the bear market. It was an obvious mistake given the market's cyclical nature."

Cooler of the Year

Maria Konnikova [07:35]:
"The coolest of the year goes to Greta Gerwig for 'Barbie,' which, despite its success, was completely shut out at the Oscars."

Nate Silver highlights Apple's strategic withdrawal from the electric vehicle market as another significant 'cooler' decision.

Nate Silver [10:46]:
"I'm giving Apple the GTO call of the year for abandoning their electric vehicle project. It was a tough but mathematically sound decision."

Tilt of the Year

Maria Konnikova [09:48]:
"Joe Biden's decision to run for reelection and pardon his son Hunter exemplifies 'tilt,' where emotions override rational decision-making."

Nate Silver agrees, emphasizing the emotional aspects influencing Biden's campaign decisions.

Nate Silver [10:01]:
"Biden's choices, driven by emotions rather than strategic calculations, epitomize the tilt of the year."

Cognitive Bias of the Year

Nate Silver [12:29]:
"The sunk cost fallacy best explains 2024, particularly in Biden's campaign where continued investment despite declining prospects ultimately cost them the election."

Maria Konnikova [13:56]:
"Group think within the Democratic Party, leading to a disconnect with broader voter sentiments, was a significant cognitive bias this year."

D Gen of the Year

Nate Silver [14:53]:
"Ippei Mizuhara receives the D Gen of the Year award for his involvement in high-stakes, risky sports betting activities."

Additional Awards and Highlights

• Greta Gerwig's 'Barbie' received recognition despite its Oscar snub, highlighting the disconnect between commercial success and critical acclaim.
• Juan Soto's move from the Yankees to the Mets was lauded as a bold sports decision, showcasing loyalty and career strategy.
• Sam Altman and OpenAI were called out for what Michael Lewis describes as a significant bluff regarding their mission and profit motives.

Maria Konnikova [21:05]:
"Sam Altman and OpenAI are awarded for their biggest bluff of the year, misleading the public about their nonprofit intentions."

Personal Awards and Reflections

Nate and Maria also reflect on their personal decisions and predictions for the year:

• Maria Konnikova acknowledges nearly missing a significant bet related to Florida politics.
• Nate Silver concedes a miscalculation regarding the impact of cryptocurrency on elections, recognizing the underestimated influence of the crypto vote.

Conclusion and Insights

The episode concludes with a lighthearted exchange about their respective poker performances and a recap of the awards. Michael Lewis teases the return of the regular season in the new year, promising more insightful discussions on the erosion of public trust in various American institutions.

Michael Lewis [24:38]:
"We'll be back with our regular season very soon in the new year."

Key Takeaways

• Risk Management: Bold decisions can lead to significant rewards or notable failures, emphasizing the importance of strategic risk assessment.
• Emotional Decision-Making: Allowing emotions to influence critical decisions can lead to suboptimal outcomes.
• Cognitive Biases: Recognizing and mitigating biases like sunk cost fallacy and group think is essential for sound decision-making.
• Industry Insights: Strategic withdrawals, such as Apple's exit from the electric vehicle market, demonstrate the necessity of adaptability in business.

Notable Quotes:

• Maria Konnikova [03:33]:
  "A hero call is about making bold moves that pay off, and Theo did exactly that."

• Nate Silver [06:43]:
  "Selling Bitcoin at the bear market was an obvious mistake in hindsight."

• Nate Silver [10:46]:
  "Apple's decision to abandon electric vehicles was tough but strategically sound."

This episode of "Against the Rules with Michael Lewis" provides a comprehensive analysis of the year's most significant and risky decisions, offering listeners valuable insights into effective risk management and the pitfalls of emotional and biased decision-making.

Transcript

[Michael Lewis]

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[Michael Lewis]

Hey there, Michael Lewis here. As we ease over into 2025, I wanted to share a fun awards show that my friends over at Risky Business just held. That show is all about being smarter when it comes to risk, about how to make better decisions. It's hosted by the statistician Nate Silver and the psychologist Maria Konnikova. They both also happen to be professional poker players and the two just gave out a bunch of awards for the best, the worst and the wildest gambles of 2024. It's a surprising and fun look back on the year and I think you'll love it. We'll be back with our regular season very soon in the new year.

[Nate Silver]

Nate, I'm really excited for our first of what I hope will be annual Risky Awards. The riskies to talk about good and bad decisions of the year in all walks of life. So obviously, you know, we talk a lot about politics on the show, so we'll have some from politics, but also from business and from sports and Hollywood, just talking in general about risky decisions. Which ones worked out, which ones didn't, which ones were good, which ones were bad. So let's get started and talk about awarding the first Risky for the hero call of the year. So a decision that looked like it might have been a little crazy at the time, but turned out to be brilliant. Right? Just like a hero call in poker when you're thinking, you're thinking you have jack high and it's for your tournament life, and you end up calling. And you're right because the other guy was bluffing with eight high or whatever it was. Nate, do you have a hero call of the year?

[Maria Konnikova]

I think Theo, the French whale, has to get the hero call of the year award. So what'd he make? He. Yeah, that's $85 billion. So he. The here, the French whale was on Polymarket, which I'm an advisor to, and bet copious amounts, millions of dollars that Trump would win. And kind of even like distorted as a loaded term, but, like, the whole market was affected by this one trader. Polymarket has good volume, but not. But, you know, it's not. It's not the equities market or something like that. Apparently did some polling where he asked people, who are your neighbors voting for this technique is not that proven. But look, it worked. A hero call, by definition is like, if you get the answer right for lots of money, then you have to get some amount of credit. Right. A lot of people didn't have this degree of confidence election. Our forecast literally had it more random than a coin flip. And so I'm going to give the French whale, Theo this award.

[Nate Silver]

I think that that's a beautiful. That's a beautiful answer. Theo absolutely deserves hero call of the year. Because we even talked on the podcast, we're like, this is insane. Like, right, who is this whale? Like, what is going on? And, yeah, he ended up making a shit ton of money. So congratulations, Theo. You've made our hero call of the year.

[Maria Konnikova]

Congrats.

[Nate Silver]

Yes.

[Maria Konnikova]

And come on the show.

[Nate Silver]

Yes. We'd love to talk about how you think about we. Nate promises he will not do his French accent for you when you are on the show. All right. So, you know, flip side of the hero call is when you make the wrong decision. Right. What was the worst fold of the year? So a decision that, you know, ended up making people think, you know, what were you thinking? How could you fold there? I have one for this, but, yeah, you go ahead. It seems like you're excited about this one.

[Maria Konnikova]

I'm sorry, this is so on Brand. I have to go with like the she should have picked Shapiro thing. I know it's, I know it's very politics heavy, but like you have this very charismatic politician who's like literally the popular governor of the most important swing state, which by the way turned out to be the tipping point state, Pennsylvania. And she picked Tim Wells, who was kind of weird in practice and like it just seemed like a no brainer. And I can try and dissect why the campaign did this, but like that, that's a decision that's kind of the opposite of the hero call, right? It's like the obvious play. If you don't make the obvious play, right. If you have this amazing semi bluffing opportunity, you have a straight draw and a flush draw and you have fold equity and you choose to play the hand differently in some weird way, then it better work out well or if not, we have the right to criticize you.

[Nate Silver]

So there's another award that comes a little bit later, but I'm going to reference it now because I think it's very germane. And it's an award that we're borrowing from the podcast the Town. So thank you very much. The Town down. And it's the suck it haters, I was right award. And that Nate, I'm going to give to one of the decisions that you've been talking about all year, which is she should have chosen Shapiro.

[Maria Konnikova]

Should have chosen Shapiro.

[Nate Silver]

So I actually, I went outside of politics sort of and I said the worst fold was anyone who ended up selling bitcoin at the beginning of the year during the bear market in January. Yeah, I think that that was the worst fold. Like the, the people who were, you know, like all in on bitcoin and then were like, you know what? I, I changed my mind. Like this is bad. Like it's down to 40k. Like I bet those people are not very happy right now. So I think that, and I don't think that it was, I, I think that it was pretty obvious that they should not be folding. Right. Because you know how cyclical this market is. You know how the bear bull cycles work. Like if you know what you're doing, you do not sell like at a bottom right there. But yeah, so that was, that's who I gave the, the worst fold of the year award to. So I think we can, we can both give out one.

[Maria Konnikova]

Next up we have cooler of the year who had a great hand but still lost.

[Nate Silver]

So here I went outside of our usual purview, right. We, we're Normally kind of very politics, business, Some sports heavy here. I decided to go to Holly, and I am giving this award to Greta Gerwig, who was the writer and director of Barbie, who just got completely shut out at the Oscars, losing everything, losing even some nominations. She wasn't even nominated for directing, and she lost for writing. And I think that she was just, like, completely. She had a great hand. I think Barbie was a great movie that did incredibly well. And for some reason, she was just, like, completely shut out of the Oscars this year. That happens every year. You know, there's always someone. But this one, I feel like, yeah, I felt a little bit personal about it because I think, you know, she's female, she's talented, she's great. And I actually did not like Oppenheimer at all. I thought it was a horrible movie. I thought it was really boring. I did not think that it should have gotten all the awards it got. So I actually disagreed completely. This is from a personal thing, but these are our awards, so they get to be personal. That was my cooler of the year. How about you, Nate?

[Maria Konnikova]

Maybe the. The New York Yankees. I don't know if you're a baseball fan. Juan Soto, this amazing young outfielder who is kind of like the Ted Williams of his era, signed with the crosstown rival New York Mets for. For almost $800 million. The Yankees offered him 760 million after making their first World Series run since 2009, I guess, because apparently the Yankees were just cheap. Like, George Costanza working for the Yankees in Seinfeld were like, they wouldn't give Juan Soto a suite. They apparently, like, harassed his family and his driver. And so he was like, fuck you. I'm actually going to Steve Cohen in the New York Mets. Pretty rare to see a crosstown free agency move like that.

[Nate Silver]

All right, up next, tilt of the year. So what was the most emotional decision of the year, do you think?

[Maria Konnikova]

I mean, I'm going back to politics here.

[Nate Silver]

Joe Biden. Mine's Joe Biden Politics Stove. Yep.

[Maria Konnikova]

Joe Biden deciding a. To run for reelection and that he was indefatigable. And then the pardon of fail son Hunter.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah, I've got the pardon as mine. So let's unanimously give the tilt of the year to Biden for making some very emotional decisions. The deciding to run and the pardon of Hunter. I think that that is absolutely. You know, that was tilt. The definition of tilt is letting emotions into your decision process, right. That you are no longer evaluating things based on their, you know, expected value, based on their Actual kind of decision matrix. You are letting emotions that are incidental and not integral to the decision into the decision. And that's exactly what Joe Biden did.

[Maria Konnikova]

GTO call of the year, game theory, optimalist call for the most balanced, mathematically sound decision of the year.

[Nate Silver]

Okay, so this one, I, I went outside of politics. I went into the, the business side because this is so incredibly rare. I wanted to kind of compliment Apple on abandoning their foray into electric vehicles because most companies, after spending billions on something, don't have the foresight, the knowledge, kind of the perspicacity to say, you know what, we're not going to be competitive here. It's not working. We're just going to write it off and move on. And the markets rewarded Apple, actually. Even though some people were like, this is insane, like, right, how can you step away from a multi billion investment? So I think that that was actually, that is what GTO is, right? Is actually being able to make those types of really, really tough decisions. Because you realize, you know what, it doesn't matter. We already spent that money and we can't get it back. And if we realize we're not competitive, like I'm going to fold my hand, right? And I'm gonna, and I'm gonna walk away and that's gonna be okay. And most companies are not capable of doing that. Most CEOs are not capable of doing that. So I want to reward Apple for a really good decision.

[Maria Konnikova]

Yeah, maybe I give a little shout out here to Dan Campbell, the head coach of the Detroit Lions. The Lions nearly made their first super bowl ever. Blew it. That probably saved me. I don't want to even say how much it was going to save me on it last like a Super bowl trip, but Campbell's very aggressive about going for it on fourth down and making other aggressive play calls, which the GTO says is correct and didn't work out. But they trust the system. And now the Lions are the best team in the NFL so far this year. So maybe I'll be spending my hard earned dollars on a trip to New Orleans instead in the Super Bowl.

[Nate Silver]

Great, I'm on board with that. All right, how about the Danny Kahneman Memorial Cognitive Bias of the Year award? What cognitive bias? Best explains 2024. So I'm going to say that the bias that best encapsulates 2024 and we're going back to politics here is the sunk cost fallacy, which is the inability to walk away from sunk costs. And I think that the Biden campaign, which is Something that is going to, you know, be. We'll be feeling the repercussions of that for years to come. Suffered from the sunk cost fallacy. Right. The, the fact that, oh, you know, I am already. I, I said I'm running like I'm not, I'm not going to turn back on it. I'm gonna keep putting good time and good money after bad after. It was becoming more and more clear that he shouldn't run again that away. And the sunk cost fallacy, I think literally cost them the election because they, you know, he did not step away. We've talked about this so many times, but you know, the, the fact that they didn't pivot, the fact that they kind of didn't take the risk and take on the new strategy and realize, you know what, we're only hurting ourselves by continuing to put good time, good money, good energy after bad. I think that that was the death, the death knoll of this campaign. So to me, the sunk cost fallacy is the decision error that best encapsulates this year.

[Maria Konnikova]

Yeah, maybe I'll go with good old fashioned group think. I suppose it's also contained to the Democratic Party where an inability. I think it's fundamentally. I'm kind of writing an article about this now. I think it's kind of amazing that Democrats adopt this philosophy where they kind of claim to be working on behalf of like all these oppressed minorities and then all the oppressed minorities shift a long way toward Trump. And I think what that is is that you're actually looking at views among other elites. And Democrats have kind of lost touch with how people outside their group think and what messages are appealing and which aren't. And so I don't want to detour this too much, but I'll kind of broadly give it to the Democratic Party and how capture among all the cognitive elites actually can be a problem in some ways.

[Nate Silver]

Makes sense.

[Maria Konnikova]

Here's a fun one. D Gen of the Year. This is one of the most prestigious awards.

[Nate Silver]

It is. Well, I'm giving it to Ippei Mizuhara.

[Maria Konnikova]

That was my pick.

[Nate Silver]

16 million Taylor. I don't think it doesn't get more degen y than him.

[Maria Konnikova]

Can we call it the Ippei Mizuhara Memorial D Gen Award of the Year? In the future, I think that's the best.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah, in future years, I think that's what we need to call it. For people obviously, who can't immediately put that name to a face. That was Ohtani's interpreter who pleaded guilty to making at least $17 million worth of sports bets gone wrong and using Ohtani's accounts to cover those.

[Maria Konnikova]

And the knit of the year. Do you have a good one for this?

[Nate Silver]

Kamala Harris?

[Maria Konnikova]

Okay. Kamala Harris. Yeah, These are two. The Kamala Harris memorial.

[Nate Silver]

Yes, I got that one.

[Maria Konnikova]

She refused to distance herself from Biden even though they couldn't campaign on Biden's agenda either. They just said, oh, well, let's hope people ignore this. And. And, yeah, the. The risk aversion in this campaign. And by the way, how much is this? Her versus her campaign managers? I'm not sure, but, like, that's the.

[Nate Silver]

It's gonna have a lot of politics, right? At the end of the day, it's her campaign, and if she disagrees with her campaign manager, she needs to be like, no, fuck this. I'm not gonna be in it. So at the end of the day, it's on her, just like it's.

[Maria Konnikova]

Or vice versa. If the campaign disagrees with her, they're like, yo, yo, you gotta get your in gear, Kamala.

[Nate Silver]

Exactly. Exactly. So it seems like you agree with my degenerate knit of the year picks.

[Maria Konnikova]

Absolutely. These are pretty easy ones, I think. The Risky Business bracelet. Who had the better. Which of the two hosts? This is an easy one because there are only two answers. Had the better poker. Had the better poker year.

[Nate Silver]

I. I don't know, Nate, are you up or down?

[Maria Konnikova]

I have. I'm definitely down in tournaments, and then I have a quite good year in cash, and so I don't actually know.

[Nate Silver]

All right, well, the. The bracelet. I think we should do tournaments, right? Since bracelets are.

[Maria Konnikova]

Yeah, it's verifiable, right? Yeah, it's verifiable.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah. So I. I'm up in tournaments, so I guess I get the bracelet for. For this year.

[Maria Konnikova]

Yeah, I'm down a fair bit. I'll need to have a good series here at the Win, but the cash has gone. I'm starting to think of myself as more of a cash player in some ways.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah, that's wonderful. And I look forward to seeing you on some big cash streams. And we can change this from the bracelet award to something else so that we can just say poker prowess, whether cash or tournaments. I don't know. So now we've got two awards that are being taken from another podcast, the Town, which gives awards the Mia culpa I was wrong award and the suck at haters I was right award. So these are for, I think, personal decisions, you know, personal things that we've Done. This is where I said that you should be the second haters. I was right. I didn't have one for me, but I had it for you, which was this. You should have gone for Shapiro. Yeah, I think that that's. I think that you, you get that award and the Mia Kulpa was wrong award. I actually. So I think that I was wrong. When we had talked on the podcast about kind of how important crypto was to the election and I'm like, it's a tiny percentage. It doesn't really matter. I actually, it ended up mattering a lot more than I thought it would. And you know, and especially kind of given, given the amount of money that was donated, given kind of some people who I think came out and became single issue voters for Trump because of his take on crypto. I actually think I was a little bit wrong on that. I think I underestimated the crypto vote.

[Maria Konnikova]

I'll give myself an award for nearly betting on with Keith for Boy, who was a venture capitalist on the outcome in Florida, where Keith claimed he lives in Miami now, very proudly so that Kamala Harris would lose Florida by eight points or more. And at the time she was down only three points in the polling average. Got a spat on Twitter and offered to bet 100k and actually kind of tried to facilitate this and sent an email to a mutual friend saying, hey, Keith, if you want to negotiate terms, here's person Y who can confirm this. And he didn't respond for four days. Right. And then some morning a New York Times poll comes out and has Harris down like 13 or 15 points in Florida. And I'm like, fuck this, you know, you don't have a free option to make this bet whenever. So the offer is rescinded. Which he agreed it was too late to accept the bet. Certainly not recognizing the complete collapse of the Democratic Party in Florida and getting lucky to be able to pull out of that bet.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah, I think, I think that's a good one. And the second haters, I was right. Do you like my choice for that?

[Maria Konnikova]

I have a lot. I mean, all the Biden related stuff.

[Nate Silver]

I actually, you're like, I was right about everything. Haters.

[Maria Konnikova]

I don't know the Biden debate stuff where I'm like, actually the debate might go so bad that he'll have to pull out like people. That was kind of crazy, right? I would not have given like more than like a 15 probability of that. But I kind of put myself out there with at least raising the speed chance. And so all the Biden stuff. Yeah, I felt like was my.

[Nate Silver]

You definitely put yourself out there and I think. And I think you ended up being right about a lot of it. So. So, yes, I'm there for it. All right, now we're going to have two individual awards for, for us to give out. So mine is the Maria Konnikova award for the biggest bluff of the year. And I am gonna, I'm gonna get a lot of people mad for this one, but I'm giving it to Sam Altman and OpenAI for bluffing about the mission and the Nonprofit nature of OpenAI and getting, you know, saying how it was all about, you know, just, just being for the good of the world and then raising money and saying actually we're going to be for profit and all of this stuff that like, obviously it was going to be a business and obviously, like this is where it was heading. But I think a lot of people believed his initial bluff and this is something that's going to be really important and OpenAI and you know how Sam goes about it. I think this is an important thing to, to track closely. So I think it's good to realize that this is someone who is incredibly good at bluffing, incredibly credible at bluffing, and bluffs a lot.

[Maria Konnikova]

I, I agree. I think, No, I think I, I think that's a great pick, Maria.

[Nate Silver]

Thank you.

[Maria Konnikova]

I mean, he is. I don't know if, I don't know if he's convincing everyone necessarily, but, but, but he knows how to see their bluff through. I'll say that much.

[Nate Silver]

Yes, he does.

[Maria Konnikova]

The Nate Silver award for Reverian of the year. The Riverian, of course, a term from my book for this group of, I don't know, the generic avalanche types. I think, I think you have to give it to our boy, Elon. I just think you have to. He made this very big bet where he was kind of in more of a blue leaning cultural space and has obviously gotten like red pilled in various ways. But look, he bet 250,000 or people are still counting, maybe 300. Excuse me. He bet like several hundred million dollars of his own money on Trump, went very all in on this movement and now has been rewarded with heading a government or a quasi governmental agency named Doge and getting this guy he wanted elected. It's a little bit like this thing we said before where if you kind of make that hero call and not like the odds were that bad. I mean, Biden was evidently in trouble very early on. But I think you have to like. And again, Elon is not my favorite representative of the river. Right? Even if you were such a conservatives, you know, someone like Jay Bhattacharya who was an early Stanford professor who was skeptical of some of the COVID lockdown stuff, now named director of the nih. Like he is someone who I would personally like rather get a beer with or something but Elon's the obvious choice. I'm not going to deny him his good year.

[Nate Silver]

Well, this was, this was a lot of fun. I like, I like the Riskies and and I like our renaming of some of the awards to the award recipients. Ippe for Djen Forevermore.

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[Maria Konnikova]

It's gone.