Podcast Summary: 3-Signal Test to Spot the Next AI Mega Trend (Before Everyone Else)

Podcast: AI-Driven Marketer: Master Practical AI Marketing Skills
Host: Dan Sanchez ("Dances")
Guest: Michael Stelzner (Founder of Social Media Examiner, Social Media Marketing World Conference, AI Business Society)
Date: January 12, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, Dan Sanchez sits down with renowned marketer Michael Stelzner to explore how to reliably discern emerging AI mega trends from passing hype cycles. Drawing on decades of entrepreneurial experience, Michael outlines a practical "three-signal" framework marketers can use to spot paradigm shifts in AI before they hit the mainstream. The conversation ranges widely, covering consumer adoption signals, pattern breaks in new tech revolutions, the evolving relationship between humans and AI, and the specific skills marketers will need to focus on in an AI-powered future.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Michael Stelzner’s Framework: The Three Signals of a True Mega Trend

• 1. Excitement Among Ordinary People ([02:01])
  • A true trend isn’t driven just by marketers or paid evangelists—look for grassroots enthusiasm.
  • “Are ordinary people evangelizing it?...We're looking for your everyday people, just going out of their way, sharing it, because it's good old fashioned word of mouth.” — Michael Stelzner [02:16]
• 2. Resistance/Opposition ([04:31])
  • Meaningful innovations create backlash as some see them as a threat. Resistance confirms the trend’s disruptive potential.
  • “There has to be people that are in opposition to it in order for it to stick...When there's mass resistance to it, that's another signal that this is a megatrend.” — Michael Stelzner [04:22]
• 3. Sustained Organic Adoption ([05:45])
  • Beyond early exuberance and resistance, genuine trends show steady, organic usage and growth among diverse groups.
  • “Excitement plus resistance plus sustained organic people that just keep talking about it and it's not letting go…those are the things I'm looking for.” — Michael Stelzner [09:41]

2. Separating Hype Cycles from Real Shifts

• Examples discussed: Clubhouse (rapid fade after initial boom), crypto, Web3, and agentic AI.
• Hype is often fueled by marketers/influencers versus real users.
  • “You're not seeing excitement, you are seeing resistance...That's an example of a hype cycle and not something that I would call a trend.” — Michael Stelzner [05:45]

3. How to Use the 3-Signal Test for New AI Sub-Trends

• Apply the lens to areas like AI video (e.g., Sora): Look for organic, everyday usage, early opposition, and demographics evincing viral, sustained use ([11:21]).
  • Dan’s example: School teachers sharing Sora videos with family ([12:10]).

4. Surprises and Pattern Breaks in AI Era

• Michael’s top three “gobstopping” AI moments ([13:05]):
  • 1. ChatGPT’s initial release and its human-like responses
  • 2. ChatGPT’s voice/interaction upgrades
  • 3. Nana Banana Pro’s release (noted for its capabilities)
• Dan adds: Personalization features and "reasoning models" that can consult on past conversations and use real-time internet search ([15:29]).

5. AI vs. Previous Marketing Revolutions

• Parallels to Social Media’s Early Days ([17:01])
  • Wild West feel, massive early advantages for "knowing how" to leverage a new channel.
  • “Those who know how have a huge competitive advantage. That was exactly the case back when social media popped.” — Michael Stelzner [18:32]
• Pattern Break: AI is heavily driven by institutionally-funded major companies (OpenAI, Google, Meta) unlike social media’s startup beginnings ([19:46]).
  • “The startups are not winning...It requires enormous financial capital and resources.” — Michael Stelzner [20:48]
  • Adoption is currently business-led, with consumers lagging behind ([21:42]).

6. Where Do Marketers Go From Here?

• The Future: Human + AI Renaissance ([27:32])

  • Good marketing today will be the minimum baseline soon; marketers will leverage AI for massive increases in volume, customization, and persuasiveness.
  • Single marketers or tiny teams will achieve what took dozens before.
    • “The future marketing is only going to be incrementally more powerful...we're going to be doing 25 different channels and it's all going to be managed by one person and all their AI agents.” — Michael Stelzner [28:14]
  • Creative “unlock”—AI empowers rapid, multi-modal content creation and amplifies creative advantages, especially for those previously constrained by resources or operational skill ([30:46]).
    • “For real creative people, I honestly think the creatives are going to have a renaissance. The most creative will win full stop.” — Michael Stelzner [32:34]

• Essential Human Skills

  • Discernment ([35:50])
    • Human ability to distinguish good from great, especially in content output, remains irreplaceable.
    • “Humans are uniquely skilled to discern good from great, better than AI can.” — Michael Stelzner [35:50]
  • Emotional Intuition/Sensing ([36:41])
    • AI can replicate but not feel emotion; humans sense emotional resonance.
    • “Emotions are something that is a feeling more than it is an expression. ...AI can't sense the way humans can sense.” — Michael Stelzner [36:44]

7. Obsolescence of Some Old Behaviors

• Search behavior shifts: The “single best answer” era is coming ([39:12]).
  • Personal assistants/agents will proactively select and recommend, upending how marketers get products/services discovered.
  • “The job of marketing is to get a message in front of an audience and if there's this intermediary in the middle of it...that’s going to alter completely the way we market.” — Michael Stelzner [40:09]
• Possible pay-to-play “recommended products” ecosystem for AI assistants, especially as companies seek monetization ([43:14]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the 3-Signal Test:

  • “It's excitement plus resistance plus sustained organic people that just keep talking about it and it's not letting go.” — Michael Stelzner [09:41]

• On Human Discernment:

  • "Humans are uniquely skilled to discern good from great, better than AI can." — Michael Stelzner [35:50]

• On Future Creative Renaissance:

  • "I think the most creative will win full stop...creative people...that have any attention challenges...the AI can work as fast as their brain can work. Now all of a sudden, holy crap, look what they can create." — Michael Stelzner [32:34]

• Dan, referencing "Good Will Hunting" on human experience:

  • “You don't know what it smells like in the Sistine Chapel...” — Dan Sanchez [37:41]

• On the transformation in search:

  • “We are moving towards an era where only a answer or only a few answers are going to be the result. And that is going to fundamentally alter the way that we market.” — Michael Stelzner [40:09]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Intro & Credibility (Dan introduces Michael) — [00:05]
• Three-Signal Test Explained — [02:01] to [09:41]
• Evaluating AI Hype vs. Reality — [05:00]–[10:39]
• Sora & AI Video as Example Sub-Trend — [11:21]–[13:05]
• AI Innovations That Surprised Michael — [13:05]–[15:47]
• Historical Parallels & Pattern Breaks — [17:01]–[22:48]
• Consumer Adoption & Character AI — [22:34]–[24:11]
• Agent-to-Agent Web – Future of Sites — [24:11]–[26:28]
• Five-to-Seven Year Marketing Future — [27:32]–[33:20]
• Essentially Human Skills — [35:50]–[38:12]
• Obsolete Behaviors & New Search Paradigm — [39:12]–[43:19]
• What Leaders Should Do for 2030 — [43:57]–[48:03]

Actionable Takeaways for Marketers

• Don’t chase every new AI trend. Watch for the 3-signal combo: grassroots excitement, visible resistance, and sustained, cross-demo adoption.
• Sharpen uniquely human skills: Cultivate taste, discernment, and emotional intuition—complement your AI toolkit, don’t rely on it alone.
• Get training now. The marketers who thrive will be those experimenting, rep-surfing, and building up AI fluency ahead of the pack ([44:04]).
  • “Those that survive are those that adapt…[AI] stuff is not intuitive…carving out time and taking this seriously now…is going to be absolutely essential.” — Michael Stelzner [44:04]
• Anticipate business model shifts: Prepare for AI-driven changes in how consumers discover, compare, and choose, including single-answer recommendations and pay-to-play exposure.

Overall Tone & Closing Thoughts

The episode is rich with humility, practical wisdom, and optimism—blending caution against hype with encouragement to dive in and experiment. Both speakers emphasize that no one has it "all figured out," but early, ongoing learning and experimentation will create outsized advantages in the transformative AI era.

“This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for so many people that are listening.” — Michael Stelzner [47:42]

For more resources and a discount on AI Business World Conference:
Visit socialmediaexaminer.com/aidriven ([48:03])